Aims. Machine-learning (ML) prediction models in orthopaedic trauma hold great promise in assisting clinicians in various tasks, such as personalized risk stratification. However, an overview of current applications and critical appraisal to peer-reviewed guidelines is lacking. The objectives of this study are to 1) provide an overview of current ML prediction models in orthopaedic trauma; 2) evaluate the completeness of reporting following the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement; and 3) assess the risk of bias following the Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) tool. Methods. A systematic search screening 3,252 studies identified 45 ML-based prediction models in orthopaedic trauma up to January 2023. The TRIPOD statement assessed transparent reporting and the PROBAST tool the risk of bias. Results. A total of 40 studies reported on training and internal validation; four studies performed both development and external validation, and one study performed only external validation. The most commonly reported outcomes were mortality (33%, 15/45) and length of hospital stay (9%, 4/45), and the majority of prediction models were developed in the hip fracture population (60%, 27/45). The overall median completeness for the TRIPOD statement was 62% (interquartile range 30 to 81%). The overall risk of bias in the PROBAST tool was low in 24% (11/45), high in 69% (31/45), and unclear in 7% (3/45) of the studies. High risk of bias was mainly due to analysis domain concerns including small datasets with low number of outcomes, complete-case analysis in case of missing data, and no reporting of performance measures. Conclusion. The results of this study showed that despite a myriad of potential clinically useful applications, a substantial part of ML studies in orthopaedic trauma lack transparent reporting, and are at high risk of bias. These problems must be resolved by following established guidelines to instil confidence in ML models among patients and clinicians. Otherwise, there will remain a sizeable gap between the development of ML prediction models and their clinical application in our day-to-day orthopaedic trauma practice. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(1):9–19

Aims. Computer-assisted 3D preoperative planning software has the potential to improve postoperative stability in total hip arthroplasty (THA). Commonly, preoperative protocols simulate two functional positions (standing and relaxed sitting) but do not consider other common positions that may increase postoperative impingement and possible dislocation. This study investigates the feasibility of simulating commonly encountered positions, and positions with an increased risk of impingement, to lower postoperative impingement risk in a CT-based 3D model. Methods. A robotic arm-assisted arthroplasty planning platform was used to investigate 11 patient positions. Data from 43 primary THAs were used for simulation. Sacral slope was retrieved from patient preoperative imaging, while angles of hip flexion/extension, hip external/internal rotation, and hip abduction/adduction for tested positions were derived from literature or estimated with a biomechanical model. The hip was placed in the described positions, and if impingement was detected by the software, inspection of the impingement type was performed. Results. In flexion, an overall impingement rate of 2.3% was detected for flexed-seated, squatting, forward-bending, and criss-cross-sitting positions, and 4.7% for the ankle-over-knee position. In extension, most hips (60.5%) were found to impinge at or prior to 50° of external rotation (pivoting). Many of these impingement events were due to a prominent ischium. The mean maximum external rotation prior to impingement was 45.9° (15° to 80°) and 57.9° (20° to 90°) prior to prosthetic impingement. No impingement was found in standing, sitting, crossing ankles, seiza, and downward dog. Conclusion. This study demonstrated that positions of daily living tested in a CT-based 3D model show high rates of impingement. Simulating additional positions through 3D modelling is a low-cost method of potentially improving outcomes without compromising patient safety. By incorporating CT-based 3D modelling of positions of daily living into routine preoperative protocols for THA, there is the potential to lower the risk of postoperative impingement events. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(6):416–423

Virtual encounters have experienced an exponential rise amid the current COVID-19 crisis. This abrupt change, seen in response to unprecedented medical and environmental challenges, has been forced upon the orthopaedic community. However, such changes to adopting virtual care and technology were already in the evolution forecast, albeit in an unpredictable timetable impeded by regulatory and financial barriers. This adoption is not meant to replace, but rather augment established, traditional models of care while ensuring patient/provider safety, especially during the pandemic. While our department, like those of other institutions, has performed virtual care for several years, it represented a small fraction of daily care. The pandemic required an accelerated and comprehensive approach to the new reality. Contemporary literature has already shown equivalent safety and patient satisfaction, as well as superior efficiency and reduced expenses with musculoskeletal virtual care (MSKVC) versus traditional models. Nevertheless, current literature detailing operational models of MSKVC is scarce. The current review describes our pre-pandemic MSKVC model and the shift to a MSKVC pandemic workflow that enumerates the conceptual workflow organization (patient triage, from timely care provision based on symptom acuity/severity to a continuum that includes future follow-up). Furthermore, specific setup requirements (both resource/personnel requirements such as hardware, software, and network connectivity requirements, and patient/provider characteristics respectively), and professional expectations are outlined. MSKVC has already become a pivotal element of musculoskeletal care, due to COVID-19, and these changes are confidently here to stay. Readiness to adapt and evolve will be required of individual musculoskeletal clinical teams as well as organizations, as established paradigms evolve. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-6:272–280

Aims. Traditionally, total hip arthroplasty (THA) templating has been performed on anteroposterior (AP) pelvis radiographs. Recently, additional AP hip radiographs have been recommended for accurate measurement of the femoral offset (FO). To verify this claim, this study aimed to establish quantitative data of the measurement error of the FO in relation to leg position and X-ray source position using a newly developed geometric model and clinical data. Methods. We analyzed the FOs measured on AP hip and pelvis radiographs in a prospective consecutive series of 55 patients undergoing unilateral primary THA for hip osteoarthritis. To determine sample size, a power analysis was performed. Patients’ position and X-ray beam setting followed a standardized protocol to achieve reproducible projections. All images were calibrated with the KingMark calibration system. In addition, a geometric model was created to evaluate both the effects of leg position (rotation and abduction/adduction) and the effects of X-ray source position on FO measurement. Results. The mean FOs measured on AP hip and pelvis radiographs were 38.0 mm (SD 6.4) and 36.6 mm (SD 6.3) (p < 0.001), respectively. Radiological view had a smaller effect on FO measurement than inaccurate leg positioning. The model showed a non-linear relationship between projected FO and femoral neck orientation; at 30° external neck rotation (with reference to the detector plane), a true FO of 40 mm was underestimated by up to 20% (7.8 mm). With a neutral to mild external neck rotation (≤ 15°), the underestimation was less than 7% (2.7 mm). The effect of abduction and adduction was negligible. Conclusion. For routine THA templating, an AP pelvis radiograph remains the gold standard. Only patients with femoral neck malrotation > 15° on the AP pelvis view, e.g. due to external rotation contracture, should receive further imaging. Options include an additional AP hip view with elevation of the entire affected hip to align the femoral neck more parallel to the detector, or a CT scan in more severe cases. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(10):795–803

Aims. Prior cost-effectiveness analyses on osseointegrated prosthesis for transfemoral unilateral amputees have analyzed outcomes in non-USA countries using generic quality of life instruments, which may not be appropriate when evaluating disease-specific quality of life. These prior analyses have also focused only on patients who had failed a socket-based prosthesis. The aim of the current study is to use a disease-specific quality of life instrument, which can more accurately reflect a patient’s quality of life with this condition in order to evaluate cost-effectiveness, examining both treatment-naïve and socket refractory patients. Methods. Lifetime Markov models were developed evaluating active healthy middle-aged male amputees. Costs of the prostheses, associated complications, use/non-use, and annual costs of arthroplasty parts and service for both a socket and osseointegrated (OPRA) prosthesis were included. Effectiveness was evaluated using the questionnaire for persons with a transfemoral amputation (Q-TFA) until death. All costs and Q-TFA were discounted at 3% annually. Sensitivity analyses on those cost variables which affected a change in treatment (OPRA to socket, or socket to OPRA) were evaluated to determine threshold values. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated. Results. For treatment-naïve patients, the lifetime ICER for OPRA was $279/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). For treatment-refractory patients the ICER was $273/QALY. In sensitivity analysis, the variable thresholds that would affect a change in the course of treatment based on cost (from socket to OPRA), included the following for the treatment-naïve group: yearly replacement components for socket > $8,511; cost yearly replacement parts OPRA < $1,758; and for treatment-refractory group: yearly replacement component for socket of > $12,467. Conclusion. The use of the OPRA prosthesis in physically active transfemoral amputees should be considered as a cost-effective alternative in both treatment-naïve and treatment-refractory socket prosthesis patients. Disease-specific quality of life assessments such as Q-TFA are more sensitive when evaluating cost-effectiveness. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(3):218–226

Aims. The Ponseti method is the gold standard treatment for congenital talipes equinovarus (CTEV), with the British Consensus Statement providing a benchmark for standard of care. Meeting these standards and providing expert care while maintaining geographical accessibility can pose a service delivery challenge. A novel ‘Hub and Spoke’ Shared Care model was initiated to deliver Ponseti treatment for CTEV, while addressing standard of care and resource allocation. The aim of this study was to assess feasibility and outcomes of the corrective phase of Ponseti service delivery using this model. Methods. Patients with idiopathic CTEV were seen in their local hospitals (‘Spokes’) for initial diagnosis and casting, followed by referral to the tertiary hospital (‘Hub’) for tenotomy. Non-idiopathic CTEV was managed solely by the Hub. Primary and secondary outcomes were achieving primary correction, and complication rates resulting in early transfer to the Hub, respectively. Consecutive data were prospectively collected and compared between patients allocated to Hub or Spokes. Mann-Whitney U test, Wilcoxon signed-rank test, or chi-squared tests were used for analysis (alpha-priori = 0.05, two-tailed significance). Results. Between 1 March 2020 and 31 March 2023, 92 patients (139 feet) were treated at the service (Hub 50%, n = 46; Spokes 50%, n = 46), of whom nine were non-idiopathic. All patients (n = 92), regardless of allocation, ultimately achieved primary correction, with idiopathic patients at the Hub requiring fewer casts than the Spokes (mean 4.0 (SD 1.4) vs 6.9 (SD 4.4); p < 0.001). Overall, 60.9% of Spokes’ patients (n = 28/46) required transfer to the Hub due to complications (cast slips Hub n = 2; Spokes n = 17; p < 0.001). These patients ultimately achieved full correction at the Hub. Conclusion. The Shared Care model was found to be feasible in terms of providing primary correction to all patients, with results comparable to other published services. Complication rates were higher at the Spokes, although these were correctable. Future research is needed to assess long-term outcomes, parents’ satisfaction, and cost-effectiveness. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(11):865–872

Aims

When performing revision total hip arthroplasty using diaphyseal-engaging titanium tapered stems (TTS), the recommended 3 to 4 cm of stem-cortical diaphyseal contact may not be available. In challenging cases such as these with only 2 cm of contact, can sufficient axial stability be achieved and what is the benefit of a prophylactic cable? This study sought to determine, first, whether a prophylactic cable allows for sufficient axial stability when the contact length is 2 cm, and second, if differing TTS taper angles (2° vs 3.5°) impact these results.

Aims. Iliopsoas impingement occurs in 4% to 30% of patients after undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA). Despite a relatively high incidence, there are few attempts at modelling impingement between the iliopsoas and acetabular component, and no attempts at modelling this in a representative cohort of subjects. The purpose of this study was to develop a novel computational model for quantifying the impingement between the iliopsoas and acetabular component and validate its utility in a case-controlled investigation. Methods. This was a retrospective cohort study of patients who underwent THA surgery that included 23 symptomatic patients diagnosed with iliopsoas tendonitis, and 23 patients not diagnosed with iliopsoas tendonitis. All patients received postoperative CT imaging, postoperative standing radiography, and had minimum six months’ follow-up. 3D models of each patient’s prosthetic and bony anatomy were generated, landmarked, and simulated in a novel iliopsoas impingement detection model in supine and standing pelvic positions. Logistic regression models were implemented to determine if the probability of pain could be significantly predicted. Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated to determine the model’s sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC). Results. Highly significant differences between the symptomatic and asymptomatic cohorts were observed for iliopsoas impingement. Logistic regression models determined that the impingement values significantly predicted the probability of groin pain. The simulation had a sensitivity of 74%, specificity of 100%, and an AUC of 0.86. Conclusion. We developed a computational model that can quantify iliopsoas impingement and verified its accuracy in a case-controlled investigation. This tool has the potential to be used preoperatively, to guide decisions about optimal cup placement, and postoperatively, to assist in the diagnosis of iliopsoas tendonitis. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(1):3–12

Aims. To identify variables independently associated with same-day discharge (SDD) of patients following revision total knee arthroplasty (rTKA) and to develop machine learning algorithms to predict suitable candidates for outpatient rTKA. Methods. Data were obtained from the American College of Surgeons National Quality Improvement Programme (ACS-NSQIP) database from the years 2018 to 2020. Patients with elective, unilateral rTKA procedures and a total hospital length of stay between zero and four days were included. Demographic, preoperative, and intraoperative variables were analyzed. A multivariable logistic regression (MLR) model and various machine learning techniques were compared using area under the curve (AUC), calibration, and decision curve analysis. Important and significant variables were identified from the models. Results. Of the 5,600 patients included in this study, 342 (6.1%) underwent SDD. The random forest (RF) model performed the best overall, with an internally validated AUC of 0.810. The ten crucial factors favoring SDD in the RF model include operating time, anaesthesia type, age, BMI, American Society of Anesthesiologists grade, race, history of diabetes, rTKA type, sex, and smoking status. Eight of these variables were also found to be significant in the MLR model. Conclusion. The RF model displayed excellent accuracy and identified clinically important variables for determining candidates for SDD following rTKA. Machine learning techniques such as RF will allow clinicians to accurately risk-stratify their patients preoperatively, in order to optimize resources and improve patient outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(6):399–407

Aims. Total hip arthroplasty (THA) is a common procedure to address pain and enhance function in hip disorders such as osteoarthritis. Despite its success, postoperative patient recovery exhibits considerable heterogeneity. This study aimed to investigate whether patients follow distinct pain trajectories following THA and identify the patient characteristics linked to suboptimal trajectories. Methods. This retrospective cohort study analyzed THA patients at a large academic centre (NYU Langone Orthopedic Hospital, New York, USA) from January 2018 to January 2023, who completed the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) pain intensity questionnaires, collected preoperatively at one-, three-, six-, 12-, and 24-month follow-up times. Growth mixture modelling (GMM) was used to model the trajectories. Optimal model fit was determined by Bayesian information criterion (BIC), Vuong-Lo-Mendell-Rubin likelihood ratio test (VLMR-LRT), posterior probabilities, and entropy values. Association between trajectory groups and patient characteristics were measured by multinomial logistic regression using the three-step approach. Results. Among the 1,249 patients, a piecewise GMM model revealed three distinct pain trajectory groups: 56 patients (4.5%) in group 1; 1,144 patients (91.6%) in group 2; and 49 patients (3.9%) in group 3. Patients in group 2 experienced swift recovery post-THA and minimal preoperative pain. In contrast, groups 1 and 3 initiated with pronounced preoperative pain; however, only group 3 exhibited persistent long-term pain. Multinomial regression indicated African Americans were exceedingly likely to follow trajectory groups 1 (odds ratio (OR) 2.73) and 3 (OR 3.18). Additionally, odds of membership to group 3 increased by 12% for each BMI unit rise, by 19% for each added postoperative day, and by over four if discharged to rehabilitation services (OR 4.07). Conclusion. This study identified three distinct pain trajectories following THA, highlighting the role of individual patient factors in postoperative recovery. This emphasizes the importance of preoperatively addressing modifiable risk factors associated with suboptimal pain trajectories, particularly in at-risk patients. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(3):174–183

Aims. To develop prediction models using machine-learning (ML) algorithms for 90-day and one-year mortality prediction in femoral neck fracture (FNF) patients aged 50 years or older based on the Hip fracture Evaluation with Alternatives of Total Hip arthroplasty versus Hemiarthroplasty (HEALTH) and Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trials. Methods. This study included 2,388 patients from the HEALTH and FAITH trials, with 90-day and one-year mortality proportions of 3.0% (71/2,388) and 6.4% (153/2,388), respectively. The mean age was 75.9 years (SD 10.8) and 65.9% of patients (1,574/2,388) were female. The algorithms included patient and injury characteristics. Six algorithms were developed, internally validated and evaluated across discrimination (c-statistic; discriminative ability between those with risk of mortality and those without), calibration (observed outcome compared to the predicted probability), and the Brier score (composite of discrimination and calibration). Results. The developed algorithms distinguished between patients at high and low risk for 90-day and one-year mortality. The penalized logistic regression algorithm had the best performance metrics for both 90-day (c-statistic 0.80, calibration slope 0.95, calibration intercept -0.06, and Brier score 0.039) and one-year (c-statistic 0.76, calibration slope 0.86, calibration intercept -0.20, and Brier score 0.074) mortality prediction in the hold-out set. Conclusion. Using high-quality data, the ML-based prediction models accurately predicted 90-day and one-year mortality in patients aged 50 years or older with a FNF. The final models must be externally validated to assess generalizability to other populations, and prospectively evaluated in the process of shared decision-making. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(3):168–181

Aims. To evaluate how abnormal proximal femoral anatomy affects different femoral version measurements in young patients with hip pain. Methods. First, femoral version was measured in 50 hips of symptomatic consecutively selected patients with hip pain (mean age 20 years (SD 6), 60% (n = 25) females) on preoperative CT scans using different measurement methods: Lee et al, Reikerås et al, Tomczak et al, and Murphy et al. Neck-shaft angle (NSA) and α angle were measured on coronal and radial CT images. Second, CT scans from three patients with femoral retroversion, normal femoral version, and anteversion were used to create 3D femur models, which were manipulated to generate models with different NSAs and different cam lesions, resulting in eight models per patient. Femoral version measurements were repeated on manipulated femora. Results. Comparing the different measurement methods for femoral version resulted in a maximum mean difference of 18° (95% CI 16 to 20) between the most proximal (Lee et al) and most distal (Murphy et al) methods. Higher differences in proximal and distal femoral version measurement techniques were seen in femora with greater femoral version (r > 0.46; p < 0.001) and greater NSA (r > 0.37; p = 0.008) between all measurement methods. In the parametric 3D manipulation analysis, differences in femoral version increased 11° and 9° in patients with high and normal femoral version, respectively, with increasing NSA (110° to 150°). Conclusion. Measurement of femoral version angles differ depending on the method used to almost 20°, which is in the range of the aimed surgical correction in derotational femoral osteotomy and thus can be considered clinically relevant. Differences between proximal and distal measurement methods further increase by increasing femoral version and NSA. Measurement methods that take the entire proximal femur into account by using distal landmarks may produce more sensitive measurements of these differences. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(10):759–766

Aims. Glenoid bone loss is a significant problem in the management of shoulder instability. The threshold at which the bone loss is considered “critical” requiring bony reconstruction has steadily dropped and is now approximately 15%. This necessitates accurate measurement in order that the correct operation is performed. CT scanning is the most commonly used modality and there are a number of techniques described to measure the bone loss however few have been validated. The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of the most commonly used techniques for measuring glenoid bone loss on CT. Methods. Anatomically accurate models with known glenoid diameter and degree of bone loss were used to determine the mathematical and statistical accuracy of six of the most commonly described techniques (relative diameter, linear ipsilateral circle of best fit (COBF), linear contralateral COBF, Pico, Sugaya, and circle line methods). The models were prepared at 13.8%, 17.6%, and 22.9% bone loss. Sequential CT scans were taken and randomized. Blinded reviewers made repeated measurements using the different techniques with a threshold for theoretical bone grafting set at 15%. Results. At 13.8%, only the Pico technique measured under the threshold. At 17.6% and 22.9% bone loss all techniques measured above the threshold. The Pico technique was 97.1% accurate, but had a high false-negative rate and poor sensitivity underestimating the need for grafting. The Sugaya technique had 100% specificity but 25% of the measurements were incorrectly above the threshold. A contralateral COBF underestimates the area by 16% and the diameter by 5 to 7%. Conclusion. No one method stands out as being truly accurate and clinicians need to be aware of the limitations of their chosen technique. They are not interchangeable, and caution must be used when reading the literature as comparisons are not reliable. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(7):478–489

Aims. Several previously identified patient-, injury-, and treatment-related factors are associated with the development of nonunion in distal femur fractures. However, the predictive value of these factors is not well defined. We aimed to assess the predictive ability of previously identified risk factors in the development of nonunion leading to secondary surgery in distal femur fractures. Methods. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients with traumatic distal femur fracture treated with lateral locking plate between 2009 and 2018. The patients who underwent secondary surgery due to fracture healing problem or plate failure were considered having nonunion. Background knowledge of risk factors of distal femur fracture nonunion based on previous literature was used to form an initial set of variables. A logistic regression model was used with previously identified patient- and injury-related variables (age, sex, BMI, diabetes, smoking, periprosthetic fracture, open fracture, trauma energy, fracture zone length, fracture comminution, medial side comminution) in the first analysis and with treatment-related variables (different surgeon-controlled factors, e.g. plate length, screw placement, and proximal fixation) in the second analysis to predict the nonunion leading to secondary surgery in distal femur fractures. Results. We were able to include 299 fractures in 291 patients. Altogether, 31/299 fractures (10%) developed nonunion. In the first analysis, pseudo-R. 2. was 0.27 and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.81. BMI was the most important variable in the prediction. In the second analysis, pseudo-R. 2. was 0.06 and AUC was 0.67. Plate length was the most important variable in the prediction. Conclusion. The model including patient- and injury-related factors had moderate fit and predictive ability in the prediction of distal femur fracture nonunion leading to secondary surgery. BMI was the most important variable in prediction of nonunion. Surgeon-controlled factors had a minor role in prediction of nonunion. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(8):584–593

Aims. Precise implant positioning, tailored to individual spinopelvic biomechanics and phenotype, is paramount for stability in total hip arthroplasty (THA). Despite a few studies on instability prediction, there is a notable gap in research utilizing artificial intelligence (AI). The objective of our pilot study was to evaluate the feasibility of developing an AI algorithm tailored to individual spinopelvic mechanics and patient phenotype for predicting impingement. Methods. This international, multicentre prospective cohort study across two centres encompassed 157 adults undergoing primary robotic arm-assisted THA. Impingement during specific flexion and extension stances was identified using the virtual range of motion (ROM) tool of the robotic software. The primary AI model, the Light Gradient-Boosting Machine (LGBM), used tabular data to predict impingement presence, direction (flexion or extension), and type. A secondary model integrating tabular data with plain anteroposterior pelvis radiographs was evaluated to assess for any potential enhancement in prediction accuracy. Results. We identified nine predictors from an analysis of baseline spinopelvic characteristics and surgical planning parameters. Using fivefold cross-validation, the LGBM achieved 70.2% impingement prediction accuracy. With impingement data, the LGBM estimated direction with 85% accuracy, while the support vector machine (SVM) determined impingement type with 72.9% accuracy. After integrating imaging data with a multilayer perceptron (tabular) and a convolutional neural network (radiograph), the LGBM’s prediction was 68.1%. Both combined and LGBM-only had similar impingement direction prediction rates (around 84.5%). Conclusion. This study is a pioneering effort in leveraging AI for impingement prediction in THA, utilizing a comprehensive, real-world clinical dataset. Our machine-learning algorithm demonstrated promising accuracy in predicting impingement, its type, and direction. While the addition of imaging data to our deep-learning algorithm did not boost accuracy, the potential for refined annotations, such as landmark markings, offers avenues for future enhancement. Prior to clinical integration, external validation and larger-scale testing of this algorithm are essential. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(8):671–680

Aims. To estimate the potential cost-effectiveness of adalimumab compared with standard care alone for the treatment of early-stage Dupuytren’s disease (DD) and the value of further research from an NHS perspective. Methods. We used data from the Repurposing anti-TNF for Dupuytren’s disease (RIDD) randomized controlled trial of intranodular adalimumab injections in patients with early-stage progressive DD. RIDD found that intranodular adalimumab injections reduced nodule hardness and size in patients with early-stage DD, indicating the potential to control disease progression. A within-trial cost-utility analysis compared four adalimumab injections with no further treatment against standard care alone, taking a 12-month time horizon and using prospective data on EuroQol five-dimension five-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L) and resource use from the RIDD trial. We also developed a patient-level simulation model similar to a Markov model to extrapolate trial outcomes over a lifetime using data from the RIDD trial and a literature review. This also evaluated repeated courses of adalimumab each time the nodule reactivated (every three years) in patients who initially responded. Results. The within-trial economic evaluation found that adalimumab plus standard care cost £503,410 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained versus standard care alone over a 12-month time horizon. The model-based extrapolation suggested that, over a lifetime, repeated courses of adalimumab could cost £14,593 (95% confidence interval £7,534 to £42,698) per QALY gained versus standard care alone. If the NHS was willing to pay £20,000/QALY gained, there is a 77% probability that adalimumab with retreatment is the best value for money. Conclusion. Repeated courses of adalimumab are likely to be a cost-effective treatment for progressive early-stage DD. The value of perfect parameter information that would eliminate all uncertainty around the parameters estimated in RIDD and the duration of quiescence was estimated to be £105 per patient or £272 million for all 2,584,411 prevalent cases in the UK. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(11):898–906

Aims. There is ambiguity surrounding the degree of scaphoid union required to safely allow mobilization following scaphoid waist fracture. Premature mobilization could lead to refracture, but late mobilization may cause stiffness and delay return to normal function. This study aims to explore the risk of refracture at different stages of scaphoid waist fracture union in three common fracture patterns, using a novel finite element method. Methods. The most common anatomical variant of the scaphoid was modelled from a CT scan of a healthy hand and wrist using 3D Slicer freeware. This model was uploaded into COMSOL Multiphysics software to enable the application of physiological enhancements. Three common waist fracture patterns were produced following the Russe classification. Each fracture had differing stages of healing, ranging from 10% to 90% partial union, with increments of 10% union assessed. A physiological force of 100 N acting on the distal pole was applied, with the risk of refracture assessed using the Von Mises stress. Results. Overall, 90% to 30% fracture unions demonstrated a small, gradual increase in the Von Mises stress of all fracture patterns (16.0 MPa to 240.5 MPa). All fracture patterns showed a greater increase in Von Mises stress from 30% to 10% partial union (680.8 MPa to 6,288.6 MPa). Conclusion. Previous studies have suggested 25%, 50%, and 75% partial union as sufficient for resuming hand and wrist mobilization. This study shows that 30% union is sufficient to return to normal hand and wrist function in all three fracture patterns. Both 50% and 75% union are unnecessary and increase the risk of post-fracture stiffness. This study has also demonstrated the feasibility of finite element analysis (FEA) in scaphoid waist fracture research. FEA is a sustainable method which does not require the use of finite scaphoid cadavers, hence increasing accessibility into future scaphoid waist fracture-related research. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(8):612–620

Aims. Cementing in arthroplasty for hip fracture is associated with improved postoperative function, but may have an increased risk of early mortality compared to uncemented fixation. Quantifying this mortality risk is important in providing safe patient care. This study investigated the association between cement use in arthroplasty and mortality at 30 days and one year in patients aged 50 years and over with hip fracture. Methods. This retrospective cohort study used linked data from the Australian Hip Fracture Registry and the National Death Index. Descriptive analysis and Kaplan-Meier survival curves tested the unadjusted association of mortality between cemented and uncemented procedures. Multilevel logistic regression, adjusted for covariates, tested the association between cement use and 30-day mortality following arthroplasty. Given the known institutional variation in preference for cemented fixation, an instrumental variable analysis was also performed to minimize the effect of unknown confounders. Adjusted Cox modelling analyzed the association between cement use and mortality at 30 days and one year following surgery. Results. The 30-day mortality was 6.9% for cemented and 4.9% for uncemented groups (p = 0.003). Cement use was significantly associated with 30-day mortality in the Kaplan-Meier survival curve (p = 0.003). After adjusting for covariates, no significant association between cement use and 30-day mortality was shown in the adjusted multilevel logistic regression (odd rati0 (OR) 1.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.9 to 1.5; p = 0.366), or in the instrumental variable analysis (OR 1.0, 95% CI 0.9 to 1.0, p=0.524). There was no significant between-group difference in mortality within 30days (hazard ratio (HR) 0.9, 95% CI 0.7to 1.1; p = 0.355) or one year (HR 0.9 95% CI 0.8 to 1.1; p = 0.328) in the Cox modelling. Conclusion. No statistically significant difference in patient mortality with cement use in arthroplasty was demonstrated in this population, once adjusted for covariates. This study concludes that cementing in arthroplasty for hip fracture is a safe means of surgical fixation. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(3):198–204

Aims. The aims of this study were to assess mapping models to predict the three-level version of EuroQoL five-dimension utility index (EQ-5D-3L) from the Oxford Knee Score (OKS) and validate these before and after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Methods. A retrospective cohort of 5,857 patients was used to create the prediction models, and a second cohort of 721 patients from a different centre was used to validate the models, all of whom underwent TKA. Patient characteristics, BMI, OKS, and EQ-5D-3L were collected preoperatively and one year postoperatively. Generalized linear regression was used to formulate the prediction models. Results. There were significant correlations between the OKS and EQ-5D-3L preoperatively (r = 0.68; p < 0.001) and postoperatively (r = 0.77; p < 0.001) and for the change in the scores (r = 0.61; p < 0.001). Three different models (preoperative, postoperative, and change) were created. There were no significant differences between the actual and predicted mean EQ-5D-3L utilities at any timepoint or for change in the scores (p > 0.090) in the validation cohort. There was a significant correlation between the actual and predicted EQ-5D-3L utilities preoperatively (r = 0.63; p < 0.001) and postoperatively (r = 0.77; p < 0.001) and for the change in the scores (r = 0.56; p < 0.001). Bland-Altman plots demonstrated that a lower utility was overestimated, and higher utility was underestimated. The individual predicted EQ-5D-3L that was within ± 0.05 and ± 0.010 (minimal clinically important difference (MCID)) of the actual EQ-5D-3L varied between 13% to 35% and 26% to 64%, respectively, according to timepoint assessed and change in the scores, but was not significantly different between the modelling and validation cohorts (p ≥ 0.148). Conclusion. The OKS can be used to estimate EQ-5D-3L. Predicted individual patient utility error beyond the MCID varied from one-third to two-thirds depending on timepoint assessed, but the mean for a cohort did not differ and could be employed for this purpose. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(7):573–581

Aims. We introduced a self-care pathway for minimally displaced distal radius fractures, which involved the patient being discharged from a Virtual Fracture Clinic (VFC) without a physical review and being provided with written instructions on how to remove their own cast or splint at home, plus advice on exercises and return to function. Methods. All patients managed via this protocol between March and October 2020 were contacted by a medical secretary at a minimum of six months post-injury. The patients were asked to complete the Patient-Rated Wrist Evaluation (PRWE), a satisfaction questionnaire, advise if they had required surgery and/or contacted any health professional, and were also asked for any recommendations on how to improve the service. A review with a hand surgeon was organized if required, and a cost analysis was also conducted. Results. Overall 71/101 patients completed the telephone consultation; no patients required surgery, and the mean and median PRWE scores were 23.9/100 (SD 24.9) and 17.0/100 (interquartile range (IQR) 0 to 40), respectively. Mean patient satisfaction with treatment was 34.3/40 (SD 9.2), and 65 patients (92%) were satisfied or highly satisfied. In total there were 16 contact calls, 12 requests for a consultant review, no formal complaints, and 15 minor adjustment suggestions to improve patient experience. A relationship was found between intra-articular injuries and lower patient satisfaction scores (p = 0.025), however no relationship was found between PRWE scores and the nature of the fracture. Also, no relationship was found between the type of immobilization and the functional outcome or patient satisfaction. Cost analysis of the self-care pathway V traditional pathway showed a cost savings of over £13,500 per year with the new self-care model compared to the traditional model. Conclusion. Our study supports a VFC self-care pathway for patients with minimally displaced distal radius fractures. The pathway provides a good level of patient satisfaction and function. To improve the service, we will make minor amendments to our patient information sheet. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(9):726–732