Abstract. Objectives. Conventional approaches (including Tobit) do not accurately account for ceiling effects in PROMs nor give uncertainty estimates. Here, a classifier neural network was used to estimate postoperative PROMs prior to surgery and compared with conventional methods. The Oxford Knee Score (OKS) and the Oxford Hip Score (OHS) were estimated with separate models. Methods. English NJR data from 2009 to 2018 was used, with 278.655 knee and 249.634 hip replacements. For both OKS and OHS estimations, the input variables included age, BMI, surgery date, sex, ASA, thromboprophylaxis, anaesthetic and preoperative PROMs responses. Bearing, fixation, head size and approach were also included for OHS and knee type for OKS estimation. A classifier neural network (NN) was compared with linear or Tobit regression, XGB and regression NN. The performance metrics were the root mean square error (RMSE), maximum absolute error (MAE) and area under curve (AUC). 95% confidence intervals were computed using 5-fold cross-validation. Results. The classifier NN and regression NN had the best RMSE, both with the same scores of 8.59±0.04 for knee and 7.88±0.04 for hip. The classifier NN had the best MAE, with 6.73±0.03 for knee and 5.73±0.03 for hip. The Tobit model was second, with 6.86±0.03 for knee and 6.00±0.01 for hip. The classifier NN had the best AUC, with (68.7±0.4)% for knee and (73.9±0.3)% for hip. The regression NN was second, with (67.1±0.3)% for knee and (71.1±0.4)% for hip. The Tobit model had the best AUC among conventional approaches, with (66.8±0.3)% for knee and (71.0±0.4)% for hip. Conclusions. The proposed model resulted in an improvement from the current state-of-the-art. Additionally, it estimates the full probability distribution of the postoperative PROMs, making it possible to know not only the estimated value but also its uncertainty

Since the establishment of our department a multi-modal approach to thromboprophylaxis that uses aspirin for chemical prophylaxis was adopted. In accordance with the latest national recommendations, our routine chemical prophylaxis following arthroplasty was changed to rivaroxaban in 2012 and then dalteparin in 2013. This study aimed to compare venous thromboembolism (VTE) rates during the use of the aspirin-based protocol used from 2004 to 2011 with recent, rivaroxaban and dalteparin-based guidelines. Outcome data from ISD Scotland was retrieved and radiology reports performed for CT pulmonary angiograms and lower limb doppler ultrasound scans in our institution were assessed to identify cases of VTE following primary hip or knee arthroplasty. The incidence of pulmonary embolism (PE) and proximal deep venous thrombosis (DVT) was calculated for each year and compared using a Chi-squared test. Additionally, the change in extended thromboprophylaxis regimen was surveyed by recording the discharge prescriptions for consecutive arthroplasty patients for March every year. There were 90 radiologically confirmed cases of DVT or PE between 2004 and 2011 (incidence of 0.71%). The DVT/PE rate was subsequently 0.67% in 2012 and 0.69% in 2013, with a further 29 cases identified. This does not represent a significant change in the venous thromboembolism rates and remains below the national incidence of VTE (1.06%). Aspirin alone was used as chemical thromboprophylaxis in 80.8% of patients from 2004 to 2011, 50.9% in 2012, and 12.1% in 2013. The incidence of VTE at our centre remains favourable to national figures, but the modification of thromboprophylaxis guidelines will incur additional financial costs and has not had a significant reduction on the rate of VTE

Hip and knee arthroplasties are very common operations in the UK with over 70000 hip and over 80000 knee arthroplasties taking place in England and Wales in 2011. Fortunately mortality following these operations is rare. However it remains important to understand the incidence and causes of death, in order to manage risk where possible and to inform the consent process. This study aimed to evaluate the incidence and causes of death within 30 days after undergoing hip or knee arthroplasty in our unit and to highlight possible risk factors. We looked at 30 day mortality in all patients undergoing hip or knee arthroplasty in our institution between 2005 and 2011. Data on post-operative deaths was derived from the Scottish Arthroplasty Project and correlated with procedural and demographic data from our hospital Patient Administration System (PAS). The notes of all patients who had died within a period of 30 days post-operatively were reviewed to collect data on co-morbid conditions, pre-operative investigations, post-operative thromboprophylaxis and cause of death. All primary and revision knee and hip arthroplasties including bilateral procedures were included. Arthroplasty for trauma was excluded. A total of 12,243 patients underwent hip or knee arthroplasty within the study period. 59% were female and the mean age was 68 (range 21–91). During this time period the standard protocol was to use aspirin for thromboprophylaxis. Eleven patients died following surgery giving a mortality rate of 0.09%. The most common cause of death was myocardial infarction (7/11 patients). Our finding of a mortality rate of 0.09% is similar or lower to those found in previous studies. To our knowledge this is the first series of this size looking at mortality from hip and knee arthroplasty within a single centre in the UK

Low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) is frequently used as thromboprophylaxis after major orthopaedic surgery. Varying levels of non-adherence (5% to 45%) with outpatient LMWH has been reported. Oral direct thrombin inhibitors have been recommended by industry due to ease of administration. We aim to audit the compliance rate with outpatient LMWH treatment following primary total hip arthroplasties (THA) in our district general hospital (DGH). Using the ORMIS computer system, we identified all primary THA performed in Monklands Hospital between July 2011 and August 2012. Patients’ case notes were analysed retrospectively, looking at operating surgeon's postoperative thromboprophylaxis instructions. We then conducted a telephone interview on patients discharged with outpatient LMWH to assess compliance. There were 58 primary THAs performed during the audit period. 33 patients were discharged on outpatient LMWH, whilst 15 patients and 3 patients were discharged on aspirin and warfarin respectively. Seven patients were excluded as their discharge prescriptions were missing. We successfully contacted 20 of the 33 patients discharged with outpatient LMWH. All respondents showed 100% compliance to the full course of treatment. 50% of patients self-administered; 30% were administered by district nurses and 20% by family members. 35% of patients preferred an oral tablet alternative, for its perceived ease of administration. Bruising and skin irritation were the reported problems in some patients, but these did not affect compliance. Contrary to the previous published non-adherence rates, the compliance rate with outpatient LMWH after THA was high in our DGH. The patient counseling, and family/district nurse involvement in may have contributed to this. However, our numbers of patients are low but data collection continues

Introduction. Prosthetic joint infection (PJI) is an uncommon but serious complication of hip replacement. A recent systematic review of patient risk factors for PJI identified male gender, smoking status, increasing BMI, steroid use, previous joint surgery and comorbidities of diabetes, rheumatoid arthritis and depression as risk factors for developing PJI. Limitations of the current literature include the short term follow up of most published studies. We investigated the role of patient, surgical and healthcare factors on the risk of revision of a primary hip replacement for PJI at different time-points in the post-operative follow-up. It is important that those risk factors are identified so that patients can be appropriately counselled according to their individual risk profile prior to surgery and modifiable factors can be addressed to reduce the risk of PJI at an individual and healthcare system level. Materials and Methods. Primary hip replacements and subsequent revision procedures performed for PJI from 2003–2014 were identified from the National Joint Registry (NJR). Patient (age, gender, ASA grade, BMI), perioperative (surgical indication, type of anaesthesia, thromboprophylaxis regime, surgical approach, hip replacement and bearing surface and use of femoral or acetabular bone graft) and healthcare system characteristics (surgeon grade, surgical volume) were linked with data from Hospital Episode Statistics to obtain information on specific ethnicity and comorbidities (derived from the Charlson index). Multilevel piecewise exponential non-proportional hazards models were used to estimate their effects at different post-operative periods (0–3 months, 3–6 months, 6–12 months, 12–24 and >24 months post-operation). Results. The index hip replacements consisted of 623,253 primaries with 2,705 subsequently revised for PJI, 14% within 3 months, 8% between 3–6 months, 14% between 6–12 months, 22% between 1–2 years and 42% ≥2 years after the index procedure. Risk factors for revision of PJI included male gender, high BMI, high ASA grade and younger age. Their effects were period-specific. Patients with chronic pulmonary disease, diabetes or dementia had high early risk of revision for PJI, as did patients operated for a fractured neck of femur (<3 months). Metal-on-metal bearings (>12 months) and lateral surgical approach (≥3 months) also influenced the mid- and long-term revision risk for PJI. No or modest associations were found with the operating surgeon grade, surgical volume and hospital surgical volume. Conclusion. The effects of patient, perioperative and healthcare system risk factors for PJI after primary hip replacement are time-dependent. Modifiable risk factors such as the type of surgical approach and bearing surface have also been found

Background. The incidence of bleeding following primary TKR has increased with the use of chemical thromboprophylaxis. Our aim was to compare Clexane, Apixaban and Rivaroxaban in terms of frequency and volume of bleeding episodes, need for blood transfusion, return to theatre and incidence of VTE events. Methods. Between February and May 2014, a consecutive series of 132 primary TKRs were studied prospectively. The wound dressings of these patients were assessed daily to look for signs of bleeding and classified into: Mild (< 50p size coin), moderate (> 50p size coin) or Severe (blood seeping through the dressing). Follow up was up to minimum of 30 days post discharge. Results. Apixaban, Rivaroxaban & Clexane were used in 64, 23 and 45 patients respectively. Eleven patients had at least 1 day of mild bleeding, 8 had at least 1 day of moderate bleeding and 11 had at least 1 day of severe bleeding. Ten patients had 1 or more doses omitted because of bleeding. However, there was no statistical significance in distribution of bleeding episodes or doses omitted due to bleeding amongst the three drugs (chi squared test). There was also no correlation between number of severe bleeding episodes and the need for blood transfusion. There were two VTE events recorded; 1 PE each in the Apixaban and Rivaroxaban groups. Two cases in the Apixaban group and 1 case in the Clexane group returned to theatre for washout of haematoma. Conclusion. There was an 8% incidence of severe bleeding in our study group. The incidence of bleeding problems following TKR was similar in the Apixaban, Rivaroxaban & Clexane groups. Level of evidence. III - Evidence from case, correlation, and comparative studies

Objectives

We aimed to examine the characteristics of deep venous flow in the leg in a cast and the effects of a wearable neuromuscular stimulator (geko; FirstKind Ltd) and also to explore the participants’ tolerance of the stimulator.

Objectives

To review the current best surgical practice and detail a multi-disciplinary approach that could further reduce joint replacement infection.

Thrombin has many biological properties similar to those of growth factors. In a previous study, we showed that thrombin improves healing of the rat tendo Achillis. Low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) inhibits the activity and the generation of thrombin. We therefore considered that LMWH at a thromboprophylactic dose might inhibit tendon repair.

Transection of the tendo Achillis was carried out in 86 rats and the healing tested mechanically. Low molecular weight heparin (dalateparin) was either injected a few minutes before the operation and then given continuously with an osmotic mini pump for seven days, or given as one injection before the operation. In another experiment ,we gave LMWH or a placebo by injection twice daily. The anti-factor Xa activity was analysed.

Continuous treatment with LMWH impaired tendon healing. After seven days, this treatment caused a 33% reduction in force at failure, a 20% reduction in stiffness and a 67% reduction in energy uptake. However, if injected twice daily, LMWH had no effect on tendon healing. Anti-factor Xa activity was increased by LMWH treatment, but was normal between intermittent injections.

Low molecular weight heparin delays tendon repair if given continuously, but not if injected intermittently, probably because the anti-factor Xa activity between injections returns to normal, allowing sufficient thrombin stimulation for repair. These findings indicate the need for caution in the assessment of long-acting thrombin and factor Xa inhibitors.