Aims

Using tibial shaft fracture participants from a large, multicentre randomized controlled trial, we investigated if patient and surgical factors were associated with health-related quality of life (HRQoL) at one year post-surgery.

Aims. The aims of this study were to identify and evaluate the current literature examining the prognostic factors which are associated with failure of total elbow arthroplasty (TEA). Methods. Electronic literature searches were conducted using MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Cochrane. All studies reporting prognostic estimates for factors associated with the revision of a primary TEA were included. The risk of bias was assessed using the Quality In Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool, and the quality of evidence was assessed using the modified Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations (GRADE) framework. Due to low quality of the evidence and the heterogeneous nature of the studies, a narrative synthesis was used. Results. A total of 19 studies met the inclusion criteria, investigating 28 possible prognostic factors. Most QUIPS domains (84%) were rated as moderate to high risk of bias. The quality of the evidence was low or very low for all prognostic factors. In low-quality evidence, prognostic factors with consistent associations with failure of TEA in more than one study were: the sequelae of trauma leading to TEA, either independently or combined with acute trauma, and male sex. Several other studies investigating sex reported no association. The evidence for other factors was of very low quality and mostly involved exploratory studies. Conclusion. The current evidence investigating the prognostic factors associated with failure of TEA is of low or very low quality, and studies generally have a moderate to high risk of bias. Prognostic factors are subject to uncertainty, should be interpreted with caution, and are of little clinical value. Higher-quality evidence is required to determine robust prognostic factors for failure of TEA. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(5):201–213

Aims. To map literature on prognostic factors related to outcomes of revision total knee arthroplasty (rTKA), to identify extensively studied factors and to guide future research into what domains need further exploration. Methods. We performed a systematic literature search in MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science. The search string included multiple synonyms of the following keywords: "revision TKA", "outcome" and "prognostic factor". We searched for studies assessing the association between at least one prognostic factor and at least one outcome measure after rTKA surgery. Data on sample size, study design, prognostic factors, outcomes, and the direction of the association was extracted and included in an evidence map. Results. After screening of 5,660 articles, we included 166 studies reporting prognostic factors for outcomes after rTKA, with a median sample size of 319 patients (30 to 303,867). Overall, 50% of the studies reported prospectively collected data, and 61% of the studies were performed in a single centre. In some studies, multiple associations were reported; 180 different prognostic factors were reported in these studies. The three most frequently studied prognostic factors were reason for revision (213 times), sex (125 times), and BMI (117 times). Studies focusing on functional scores and patient-reported outcome measures as prognostic factor for the outcome after surgery were limited (n = 42). The studies reported 154 different outcomes. The most commonly reported outcomes after rTKA were: re-revision (155 times), readmission (88 times), and reinfection (85 times). Only five studies included costs as outcome. Conclusion. Outcomes and prognostic factors that are routinely registered as part of clinical practice (e.g. BMI, sex, complications) or in (inter)national registries are studied frequently. Studies on prognostic factors, such as functional and sociodemographic status, and outcomes as healthcare costs, cognitive and mental function, and psychosocial impact are scarce, while they have been shown to be important for patients with osteoarthritis. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(5):338–356

Aims. Advances in treatment have extended the life expectancy of patients with metastatic bone disease (MBD). Patients could experience more skeletal-related events (SREs) as a result of this progress. Those who have already experienced a SRE could encounter another local management for a subsequent SRE, which is not part of the treatment for the initial SRE. However, there is a noted gap in research on the rate and characteristics of subsequent SREs requiring further localized treatment, obligating clinicians to extrapolate from experiences with initial SREs when confronting subsequent ones. This study aimed to investigate the proportion of MBD patients developing subsequent SREs requiring local treatment, examine if there are prognostic differences at the initial treatment between those with single versus subsequent SREs, and determine if clinical, oncological, and prognostic features differ between initial and subsequent SRE treatments. Methods. This retrospective study included 3,814 adult patients who received local treatment – surgery and/or radiotherapy – for bone metastasis between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2019. All included patients had at least one SRE requiring local treatment. A subsequent SRE was defined as a second SRE requiring local treatment. Clinical, oncological, and prognostic features were compared between single SREs and subsequent SREs using Mann-Whitney U test, Fisher’s exact test, and Kaplan–Meier curve. Results. Of the 3,814 patients with SREs, 3,159 (83%) patients had a single SRE and 655 (17%) patients developed a subsequent SRE. Patients who developed subsequent SREs generally had characteristics that favoured longer survival, such as higher BMI, higher albumin levels, fewer comorbidities, or lower neutrophil count. Once the patient got to the point of subsequent SRE, their clinical and oncological characteristics and one-year survival (28%) were not as good as those with only a single SRE (35%; p < 0.001), indicating that clinicians’ experiences when treating the initial SRE are not similar when treating a subsequent SRE. Conclusion. This study found that 17% of patients required treatments for a second, subsequent SRE, and the current clinical guideline did not provide a specific approach to this clinical condition. We observed that referencing the initial treatment, patients in the subsequent SRE group had longer six-week, 90-day, and one-year median survival than patients in the single SRE group. Once patients develop a subsequent SRE, they have a worse one-year survival rate than those who receive treatment for a single SRE. Future research should identify prognostic factors and assess the applicability of existing survival prediction models for better management of subsequent SREs. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(9):497–506

Aims. Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a common complication after elbow trauma and can cause severe upper limb disability. Although multiple prognostic factors have been reported to be associated with the development of post-traumatic HO, no model has yet been able to combine these predictors more succinctly to convey prognostic information and medical measures to patients. Therefore, this study aimed to identify prognostic factors leading to the formation of HO after surgery for elbow trauma, and to establish and validate a nomogram to predict the probability of HO formation in such particular injuries. Methods. This multicentre case-control study comprised 200 patients with post-traumatic elbow HO and 229 patients who had elbow trauma but without HO formation between July 2019 and December 2020. Features possibly associated with HO formation were obtained. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize feature selection. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build the new nomogram: the Shanghai post-Traumatic Elbow Heterotopic Ossification Prediction model (STEHOP). STEHOP was validated by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. Male sex, obesity, open wound, dislocations, late definitive surgical treatment, and lack of use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were identified as adverse predictors and incorporated to construct the STEHOP model. It displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.84). A high C-index value of 0.77 could still be reached in the internal validation. The calibration plot showed good agreement between nomogram prediction and observed outcomes. Conclusion. The newly developed STEHOP model is a valid and convenient instrument to predict HO formation after surgery for elbow trauma. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding treatment expectations and therapeutic choices. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):963–971

Background. Clinical guidelines recommend epidural steroid injection (ESI) as a treatment option for severe disc-related sciatica, but there is considerable uncertainty about its effectiveness. Currently, we know very little about factors that might be associated with good or poor outcomes from ESI. The aim of this systematic review was to synthesize and appraise the evidence investigating prognostic factors associated with outcomes following ESI for patients with imaging confirmed disc-related sciatica. Methods. The search strategy involved the electronic databases Medline, Embase, CINAHL Plus, PsycINFO and reference lists of eligible studies. Selected papers were quality appraised independently by two reviewers using the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool. Between study heterogeneity precluded statistical pooling of results. Results. 2726 citations were identified; 11 studies were eligible. Overall study quality was low with all judged to have moderate or high risk of bias. Forty-five prognostic factors were identified but were measured inconsistently. The most commonly assessed prognostic factors were related to pain and function (n=7 studies), imaging features (n=6 studies), health and lifestyle (n=5 studies), patient demographics (n=4 studies) and clinical assessment findings (n=4 studies). No prognostic factor was found to be consistently associated with outcomes following ESI. Most studies found no association or results that conflicted with other studies. Conclusions. There is little, and low quality, evidence to guide practice in terms of factors that predict outcomes in patients following ESI for disc-related sciatica. The results can help inform some of the decisions about potential prognostic factors that should be assessed in future well-designed prospective cohort studies. Conflicts of interest: No conflicts of interest. Sources of funding: This study is supported by Health Education England and the National Institute for Health Research (HEE/ NIHR ICA Programme Clinical Lectureship, Dr Siobhan Stynes, NIHR300441). The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the National Institute for Health Research or the Department of Health and Social Care

In recent years, machine learning (ML) and artificial neural networks (ANNs), a particular subset of ML, have been adopted by various areas of healthcare. A number of diagnostic and prognostic algorithms have been designed and implemented across a range of orthopaedic sub-specialties to date, with many positive results. However, the methodology of many of these studies is flawed, and few compare the use of ML with the current approach in clinical practice. Spinal surgery has advanced rapidly over the past three decades, particularly in the areas of implant technology, advanced surgical techniques, biologics, and enhanced recovery protocols. It is therefore regarded an innovative field. Inevitably, spinal surgeons will wish to incorporate ML into their practice should models prove effective in diagnostic or prognostic terms. The purpose of this article is to review published studies that describe the application of neural networks to spinal surgery and which actively compare ANN models to contemporary clinical standards allowing evaluation of their efficacy, accuracy, and relatability. It also explores some of the limitations of the technology, which act to constrain the widespread adoption of neural networks for diagnostic and prognostic use in spinal care. Finally, it describes the necessary considerations should institutions wish to incorporate ANNs into their practices. In doing so, the aim of this review is to provide a practical approach for spinal surgeons to understand the relevant aspects of neural networks. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(9):1442–1448

Aims. The aim of this study is to determine the predictors of overall survival (OS) and predictive factors of poor prognosis of conventional high-grade osteosarcoma of the limbs in a single-centre in South Africa. Methods. We performed a retrospective cross-sectional analysis to identify the prognostic factors that predict the OS of patients with histologically confirmed high-grade conventional osteosarcoma of the limbs over ten years. We employed the Cox proportional regression model and the Kaplan-Meier method for statistical analysis. Results. This study comprised 77 patients at a three-year minimum follow-up. The predictors of poor OS were: the median age of ≤ 19 years (hazard ratio (HR) 0.96; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.92 to 0.99; p = 0.021); median duration of symptoms ≥ five months (HR 0.91; 95% CI 0.83 to 0.99; p < 0.037); metastasis at diagnosis (i.e. Enneking stage III) (HR 3.33; 95% CI 1.81 to 6.00; p < 0.001); increased alkaline phosphatase (HR 3.28; 95% CI 1.33 to 8.11; p < 0.010); palliative treatment (HR 7.27; 95% CI 2.69 to 19.70); p < 0.001); and amputation (HR 3.71; 95% CI 1.12 to 12.25; p < 0.032). In contrast, definitive surgery (HR 0.11; 95% CI 0.03 to 0.38; p < 0.001) and curative treatment (HR 0.18; 95% CI 0.10 to 0.33; p < 0.001) were a protective factor. The Kaplan-Meier median survival time was 24 months, with OS of 57.1% at the three years. The projected five-year event-free survival was 10.3% and OS of 29.8% (HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.52 to 1.12; p = 0.128). Conclusion. In this series of high-grade conventional osteosarcoma of the appendicular skeleton from South Africa, 58.4% (n = 45) had detectable metastases at presentation; hence, an impoverished OS of five years was 29.8%. Large-scale future research is needed to validate our results. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(3):210–217

Aims. The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a prognostic nomogram to predict the probability of gaining a functional range of motion (ROM ≥ 120°) after open arthrolysis of the elbow in patients with post-traumatic stiffness of the elbow. Methods. We developed the Shanghai Prediction Model for Elbow Stiffness Surgical Outcome (SPESSO) based on a dataset of 551 patients who underwent open arthrolysis of the elbow in four institutions. Demographic and clinical characteristics were collected from medical records. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize the selection of relevant features. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to build the SPESSO. Its prediction performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and a calibration graph. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. BMI, the duration of stiffness, the preoperative ROM, the preoperative intensity of pain, and grade of post-traumatic osteoarthritis of the elbow were identified as predictors of outcome and incorporated to construct the nomogram. SPESSO displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.73 (95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.81). A high C-index value of 0.70 could still be reached in the interval validation. The calibration graph showed good agreement between the nomogram prediction and the outcome. Conclusion. The newly developed SPESSO is a valid and convenient model which can be used to predict the outcome of open arthrolysis of the elbow. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding the choice and expectations of treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):486–494

Aims. Patient-reported outcome measures have become an important part of routine care. The aim of this study was to determine if Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) measures can be used to create patient subgroups for individuals seeking orthopaedic care. Methods. This was a cross-sectional study of patients from Duke University Department of Orthopaedic Surgery clinics (14 ambulatory and four hospital-based). There were two separate cohorts recruited by convenience sampling (i.e. patients were included in the analysis only if they completed PROMIS measures during a new patient visit). Cohort #1 (n = 12,141; December 2017 to December 2018,) included PROMIS short forms for eight domains (Physical Function, Pain Interference, Pain Intensity, Depression, Anxiety, Sleep Quality, Participation in Social Roles, and Fatigue) and Cohort #2 (n = 4,638; January 2019 to August 2019) included PROMIS Computer Adaptive Testing instruments for four domains (Physical Function, Pain Interference, Depression, and Sleep Quality). Cluster analysis (K-means method) empirically derived subgroups and subgroup differences in clinical and sociodemographic factors were identified with one-way analysis of variance. Results. Cluster analysis yielded four subgroups with similar clinical characteristics in Cohort #1 and #2. The subgroups were: 1) Normal Function: within normal limits in Physical Function, Pain Interference, Depression, and Sleep Quality; 2) Mild Impairment: mild deficits in Physical Function, Pain Interference, and Sleep Quality but with Depression within normal limits; 3) Impaired Function, Not Distressed: moderate deficits in Physical Function and Pain Interference, but within normal limits for Depression and Sleep Quality; and 4) Impaired Function, Distressed: moderate (Physical Function, Pain Interference, and Sleep Quality) and mild (Depression) deficits. Conclusion. These findings suggest orthopaedic patient subgroups differing in physical function, pain, and psychosocial distress can be created from as few as four different PROMIS measures. Longitudinal research is necessary to determine whether these subgroups have prognostic validity. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(7):493–502

This study was conducted to investigate the characteristics, complications, radiologic features and clinical course of patients undergoing reduction of forearm fractures in order to better inform patient prognosis and postoperative management. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 1079 pediatric patients treated for forearm fractures between January 2014 and September 2021 in a 327 bed regional medical center. A preoperative radiological assessment and chart review was performed. Percent fracture displacement, location, orientation, comonution, fracture line visibility and angle of angulation were determined by AP and lateral radiographs. Percent fracture displacement was derived by: (Displacement of Bone Shafts / Diameter) x 100% = %Fracture Displacement. Angle of angulation and percent fracture displacement were calculated by averaging AP and lateral radiograph measurements. 80 cases, averaging 13.5±8.3 years, were identified as having a complete fracture of the radius and/or ulna with 69 receiving closed reduction and 11 receiving fixation via an intramedullary device or percutaneous pinning. Eight patients (10%) experienced complications with four resulting in a refracture and four resulting in significant loss of reduction (LOR) without refracture. Fractures in the proximal ⅔s of the radius were associated with a significant increase in complications compared to fractures in the distal ⅓ of the radius (31.6% vs 3.4%) (P=.000428). Likewise, a higher percent fracture displacement was associated with a decreased risk of complications (28.7% vs 5.9% displacement)(P=0.0403). No elevated risk of complications was found based on fracture orientation, angulation, fracture line visibility, forearm bone(s) fractured, sex, age or arm affected. Our result highlights radius fracture location and percent fracture displacement as markers with prognostic value following forearm fracture. These measurements are simply calculated via pre-reduction radiographs, providing an efficient method of informing risk of complications following forearm fracture

Abstract. Objectives. Ankle fractures have an incidence of around 90,000 per year in the United Kingdom. They affect younger patients following high energy trauma and, in the elderly, following low energy falls. Younger patients with pre-existing comorbidities including raised BMI or poor bone quality are also at risk of these injuries which impact the bony architecture of the joint and the soft tissues leading to a highly unstable fracture pattern, resulting in dislocation. At present, there is no literature exploring what effect ankle fracture-dislocations have on patients’ quality of life and activities of daily living, with only ankle fractures being explored. Methods. Relevant question formatting was utilised to generate a focused search. This was limited to studies specifically mentioning ankle injuries with a focus on ankle fracture-dislocations. The number of patients, fracture-dislocation type, length of follow up, prognostic factors, complications and outcome measures were recorded. Results. 939 fractures were included within the studies. Eight studies looked at previously validated foot and ankle scores, two primarily focused on the American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Society score (AOFAS), three on the Foot and Ankle Outcome Score (FAOS), and one study on the Olerud–Molander Score (OMAS). Patient, injury, and management factors were identified as being associated with poorer clinical outcomes. Conclusions. Not only are age and BMI a risk factor for posttraumatic osteoarthritis but they were also identified as prognostic indicators for functional outcome in this review. Patients sustaining a concurrent fracture-dislocation were found to have poorer clinical outcomes, and the timing and success of reduction further influenced outcomes. This review found that the quality of reduction was directly related to the patients’ functional outcomes post-follow up, and the risk of developing posttraumatic osteoarthritis, which was more frequent in patients sustaining Bosworth fractures, posterior malleolar fractures, and in patients over 35 years old

Aims. The study aimed to assess the clinical outcomes of arthroscopic debridement and partial excision in patients with traumatic central tears of the triangular fibrocartilage complex (TFCC), and to identify prognostic factors associated with unfavourable clinical outcomes. Methods. A retrospective analysis was conducted on patients arthroscopically diagnosed with Palmer 1 A lesions who underwent arthroscopic debridement and partial excision from March 2009 to February 2021, with a minimum follow-up of 24 months. Patients were assessed using the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) questionnaire, Mayo Wrist Score (MWS), and visual analogue scale (VAS) for pain. The poor outcome group was defined as patients whose preoperative and last follow-up clinical score difference was less than the minimal clinically important difference of the DASH score (10.83). Baseline characteristics, arthroscopic findings, and radiological factors (ulnar variance, MRI, or arthrography) were evaluated to predict poor clinical outcomes. Results. A total of 114 patients were enrolled in this study, with a mean follow-up period of 29.8 months (SD 14.4). The mean DASH score improved from 36.5 (SD 21.5) to 16.7 (SD 14.3), the mean MWS from 59.7 (SD 17.9) to 79.3 (SD 14.3), and the mean VAS pain score improved from 5.9 (SD 1.8) to 2.2 (SD 2.0) at the last follow-up (all p < 0.001). Among the 114 patients, 16 (14%) experienced poor clinical outcomes and ten (8.8%) required secondary ulnar shortening osteotomy. Positive ulnar variance was the only factor significantly associated with poor clinical outcomes (p < 0.001). Positive ulnar variance was present in 38 patients (33%); among them, eight patients (21%) required additional operations. Conclusion. Arthroscopic debridement alone appears to be an effective and safe initial treatment for patients with traumatic central TFCC tears. The presence of positive ulnar variance was associated with poor clinical outcomes, but close observation after arthroscopic debridement is more likely to be recommended than ulnar shortening osteotomy as a primary treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(4):380–386

Aims. The modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) uses preoperative CRP and albumin to calculate a score from 0 to 2 (2 being associated with poor outcomes). mGPS is validated in multiple carcinomas. To date, its use in soft-tissue sarcoma (STS) is limited, with only small cohorts reporting that increased mGPS scores correlates with decreased survival in STS patients. Methods. This retrospective multicentre cohort study identified 493 STS patients using clinical databases from six collaborating hospitals in three countries. Centres performed a retrospective data collection for patient demographics, preoperative blood results (CRP and albumin levels and neutrophil, leucocyte, and platelets counts), and oncological outcomes (disease-free survival, local, or metastatic recurrence) with a minimum of two years' follow-up. Results. We found that increased mGPS, tumour size, grade, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, and disease recurrence were associated with reduced survival. Importantly, mGPS was the best at stratifying prognosis and could be used in conjunction with tumour grade to sub-stratify patient survival. Conclusion. This study demonstrated that prognosis of localized STS strongly correlates with mGPS, as an increasing score is associated with a poorer outcome. We note that 203 patients (41%) with an STS have evidence of systemic inflammation. We recommend the mGPS and other biochemical blood indicators be introduced into the routine diagnostic assessment in STS patients to stratify patient prognosis. Its use will support clinical decision-making, especially when morbid treatment options such as amputation are being considered. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(1):168–176

Aims. The early mortality in patients with hip fractures from bony metastases is unknown. The objectives of this study were to quantify 30- and 90-day mortality in patients with proximal femoral metastases, and to create a mortality prediction tool based on biomarkers associated with early death. Methods. This was a retrospective cohort study of consecutive patients referred to the orthopaedic department at a UK trauma centre with a proximal femoral metastasis (PFM) over a seven-year period (2010 to 2016). The study group were compared to a matched control group of non-metastatic hip fractures. Minimum follow-up was one year. Results. There was a 90-day mortality of 46% in patients with metastatic hip fractures versus 12% in controls (89/195 and 24/192, respectively; p < 0.001). Mean time to surgery was longer in symptomatic metastases versus complete fractures (9.5 days (SD 19.8) and 3.4 days (SD 11.4), respectively; p < 0.05). Albumin, urea, and corrected calcium were all independent predictors of early mortality and were used to generate a simple tool for predicting 90-day mortality, titled the Metastatic Early Prognostic (MEP) score. An MEP score of 0 was associated with the lowest risk of death at 30 days (14%, 3/21), 90 days (19%, 4/21), and one year (62%, 13/21). MEP scores of 3/4 were associated with the highest risk of death at 30 days (56%, 5/9), 90 days (100%, 9/9), and one year (100%, 9/9). Neither age nor primary cancer diagnosis was an independent predictor of mortality at 30 and 90 days. Conclusion. This score could be used to predict early mortality and guide perioperative counselling. The delay to surgery identifies a potential window to intervene and correct these abnormalities with the aim of improving survival. Cite this article: Bone Joint J. 2020;102-B(1):72–81

Between 1992 and 1999, we treated 350 patients with skeletal metastases. A multivariable analysis of the patients was conducted using the Cox proportional hazards model. We identified five significant prognostic factors for survival, namely, the site of the primary lesion, the performance status (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group status 3 or 4), the presence of visceral or cerebral metastases, any previous chemotherapy, and multiple skeletal metastases. The score for each significant factor was derived from the corresponding estimated regression coefficients (natural logarithm of the hazard ratio). The prognostic score was calculated by adding all the scores for individual factors. The rate of survival was 31% at six months and 11% at one year for the patients with a prognostic score of 6 or more. By contrast, patients with a prognostic score of 2 or less had a rate of survival of 98% at six months and 89% at one year. This scoring system can be used to determine the optimal treatment for patients with pathological fractures or epidural compression

Aims. The purpose of this study was to identify prognostic indicators of outcome at presentation to the orthopaedic surgeon, in patients with metastatic prostate cancer. Our aim was to use this information in a pragmatic, clinic-based approach so that surgical decision making could be optimized to benefit the patient in their remaining lifetime. Patients and Methods. A cohort analysis was undertaken of all patients with metastatic disease of the prostate who presented to a regional orthopaedic centre in the United Kingdom between 2003 and 2016. Biochemical data were collected in addition to disease and demographic data. These included: prostate-specific antigen (PSA) at orthopaedic presentation; haemoglobin (Hb); platelets (plt); alkaline phosphatase (ALP); albumin (Alb); and corrected calcium (CaC). Statistical analysis included Kaplan–Meier survival analysis, and a Cox proportional hazards model was fitted to the data. Results. From the departmental database, 137 episodes were identified in 136 patients with a median age at presentation of 72 years (interquartile range (IQR) 66 to 78). Most patients had stage IV disease (n = 98, 72%), and most did not undergo surgical intervention. At one-year follow-up, 50% of patients had died. Biomarkers found to be independently associated with poor survival were: low Hb, low Alb, relatively low PSA (< 30 mmol/l), and a raised ALP. Patients who needed surgical intervention had a poorer survival rate than patients who were managed nonoperatively. Conclusion. The study findings are important for orthopaedic clinical practice in the management of patients with metastatic prostate cancer. The interpretation of routine blood tests can help to predict survival in patients who present with orthopaedic manifestations of prostate cancer. A lower PSA is not necessarily a good prognostic sign. We believe that simple blood testing should be carried out routinely when assessing a patient, guiding potential surgical management and palliative care in the future

Growth factors are reported to play an important role in healing after acute Achilles tendon rupture (ATR). However, the association between growth factors and patient outcome has not been investigated previously. The aim of this retrospective study is to identify growth factors and related proteins which can be used as predictors of healing after ATR, ethical approval was obtained from the Regional Ethical Review Committees in Sweden and followed the guidelines of the Declaration of Helsinki. The study included 28 surgically treated patients (mean age 39.11 ± 8.38 yrs) with acute ATR. Healing was assessed by microdialysate two weeks after the surgery and performed on both injured and contralateral un-injured leg. The microdialysates were analyzed by proteomics based on mass spectrometry (MS) to detect growth factor expressions in ATR patients. One year after the surgery, healing outcomes were evaluated by patient-reported Achilles tendon Total Rupture Score (ATRS), Foot and Ankle Outcome Score (FAOS), and functional outcomes by heel-rise test. A total of 1549 proteins were detected in the microdialysates of which 20 growth factor/ related proteins were identified. 7 of these were significantly up-regulated (IGFBP2, Fold change (FC) = 4.07, P = 0.0036; IGFBP4, FC = 3.06, P = 0.009; CTGF, FC = 15.83, P = 0.003; HDGF, FC = 4.58, P = 0.003; GRB2, FC = 14.8, P = 0.0004; LTBP1, FC = 12.08, P = 0.0008; TGFBI, FC = 5.54, P = 0.001) and 1 down-regulated (IGFBP6) in the injured compared to the contralateral healthy side. Linear regression analysis revealed that TGFB1 was positively associated with improved ATRS (r = 0.585, P = 0.04) as well to ATRS subscales: less limitation in running (r = 0.72, P = 0.004), less jumping limitation (r = 0.764, P = 0.001) and less limitation caused by decreased tendon strength (r = 0.665, P = 0.012). Interestingly, all 7 up-regulated proteins were positively associated with less jumping limitations (IGFBP2, r = 0.667, P = 0.015; IGFBP4, r = 0.675, P = 0.013; CTGF, r = 0.668, P = 0.015; HDGF, r = 0.672, P = 0.014; GRB2, r = 0.665, P = 0.016; LTBP1, r = 0.663, P = 0,016). No associations were observed among any of the growth factor and FAOS or patient's functional outcomes. We conclude that growth factors and related proteins play a crucial role in ATR healing. More specifically, TGFB1 may be used as prognostic biomarker of the patient-reported outcome 1-year post-surgery. These results may be used to develop more specific treatments to improve ATR healing

The modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) is a validated prognostic indicator in various carcinomas as demonstrated by several meta-analyses. The mGPS includes pre-operative CRP and albumin values to calculate a score from 0–2 that correlates with overall outcome. Scores of 2 are associated with a poorer outcome. Our aim was to assess if the mGPS is reliable as a prognostic indicator for soft tissue sarcoma (STS) patients. All patients with a STS diagnosed during years 2010–2014 were identified using our prospectively collected MSK oncology database. We performed a retrospective case note review examining demographics, preoperative blood results and outcomes (no recurrence, local recurrence, metastatic disease and death). 94 patients were included. 56% were female and 53% were over 50 years. 91% of tumours were high grade (Trojani 2/3) and 73% were >5cm. 45 patients had an mGPS score of 0, 16 were mGPS 1 and 33 were mGPS 2. On univariate analysis, an mGPS of 0 or 2 was statically significant with regards to outcome (p=0.012 and p=0.005 respectively). We have demonstrated that pre-treatment mGPS is an important factor in predicting oncological outcome. A score of 0 relates to an improved prognosis whilst a score of 2 relates to an increased risk of developing metastases and death. mGPS as a prognostic indicator was not affected by either the tumour size or grade. We believe that a pre-operative mGPS should be calculated to help predict oncological outcome and in turn influence management. Further work is being undertaken with a larger cohort

A small proportion of children with Gartland type III supracondylar humeral fracture (SCHF) experience troubling limited or delayed recovery after operative treatment. We hypothesised that the fracture level relative to the isthmus of the humerus would affect the outcome. We retrospectively reviewed 230 children who underwent closed reduction and percutaneous pinning (CRPP) for their Gartland type III SCHFs between March 2003 and December 2012. There were 144 boys and 86 girls, with the mean age of six years (1.1 to 15.2). The clinico-radiological characteristics and surgical outcomes (recovery of the elbow range of movement, post-operative angulation, and the final Flynn grade) were recorded. Multivariate analysis was employed to identify prognostic factors that influenced outcome, including fracture level. Multivariate analysis revealed that a fracture below the humeral isthmus was significantly associated with poor prognosis in terms of the range of elbow movement (p < 0.001), angulation (p = 0.001) and Flynn grade (p = 0.003). Age over ten years was also a poor prognostic factor for recovery of the range of elbow movement (p = 0.027). This is the first study demonstrating a subclassification system of Gartland III fractures with prognostic significance. This will guide surgeons in peri-operative planning and counselling as well as directing future research aimed at improving outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:134–40