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Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 1 | Pages 22 - 32
4 Jan 2021
Sprague S Heels-Ansdell D Bzovsky S Zdero R Bhandari M Swiontkowski M Tornetta P Sanders D Schemitsch E

Aims

Using tibial shaft fracture participants from a large, multicentre randomized controlled trial, we investigated if patient and surgical factors were associated with health-related quality of life (HRQoL) at one year post-surgery.

Methods

The Study to Prospectively Evaluate Reamed Intramedullary Nails in Patients with Tibial Fractures (SPRINT) trial examined adults with an open or closed tibial shaft fracture who were treated with either reamed or unreamed intramedullary nails. HRQoL was assessed at hospital discharge (for pre-injury level) and at 12 months post-fracture using the Short Musculoskeletal Functional Assessment (SMFA) Dysfunction, SMFA Bother, 36-Item Short Form 36 (SF-36) Physical, and SF-36 Mental Component scores. We used multiple linear regression analysis to determine if baseline and surgical factors, as well as post-intervention procedures within one year of fracture, were associated with these HRQoL outcomes. Significance was set at p < 0.01. We hypothesize that, irrespective of the four measures used, prognosis is guided by both modifiable and non-modifiable factors and that patients do not return to their pre-injury level of function, nor HRQoL.


Bone & Joint Research
Vol. 13, Issue 5 | Pages 201 - 213
1 May 2024
Hamoodi Z Gehringer CK Bull LM Hughes T Kearsley-Fleet L Sergeant JC Watts AC

Aims. The aims of this study were to identify and evaluate the current literature examining the prognostic factors which are associated with failure of total elbow arthroplasty (TEA). Methods. Electronic literature searches were conducted using MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Cochrane. All studies reporting prognostic estimates for factors associated with the revision of a primary TEA were included. The risk of bias was assessed using the Quality In Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool, and the quality of evidence was assessed using the modified Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations (GRADE) framework. Due to low quality of the evidence and the heterogeneous nature of the studies, a narrative synthesis was used. Results. A total of 19 studies met the inclusion criteria, investigating 28 possible prognostic factors. Most QUIPS domains (84%) were rated as moderate to high risk of bias. The quality of the evidence was low or very low for all prognostic factors. In low-quality evidence, prognostic factors with consistent associations with failure of TEA in more than one study were: the sequelae of trauma leading to TEA, either independently or combined with acute trauma, and male sex. Several other studies investigating sex reported no association. The evidence for other factors was of very low quality and mostly involved exploratory studies. Conclusion. The current evidence investigating the prognostic factors associated with failure of TEA is of low or very low quality, and studies generally have a moderate to high risk of bias. Prognostic factors are subject to uncertainty, should be interpreted with caution, and are of little clinical value. Higher-quality evidence is required to determine robust prognostic factors for failure of TEA. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(5):201–213


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 5 | Pages 338 - 356
10 May 2023
Belt M Robben B Smolders JMH Schreurs BW Hannink G Smulders K

Aims. To map literature on prognostic factors related to outcomes of revision total knee arthroplasty (rTKA), to identify extensively studied factors and to guide future research into what domains need further exploration. Methods. We performed a systematic literature search in MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science. The search string included multiple synonyms of the following keywords: "revision TKA", "outcome" and "prognostic factor". We searched for studies assessing the association between at least one prognostic factor and at least one outcome measure after rTKA surgery. Data on sample size, study design, prognostic factors, outcomes, and the direction of the association was extracted and included in an evidence map. Results. After screening of 5,660 articles, we included 166 studies reporting prognostic factors for outcomes after rTKA, with a median sample size of 319 patients (30 to 303,867). Overall, 50% of the studies reported prospectively collected data, and 61% of the studies were performed in a single centre. In some studies, multiple associations were reported; 180 different prognostic factors were reported in these studies. The three most frequently studied prognostic factors were reason for revision (213 times), sex (125 times), and BMI (117 times). Studies focusing on functional scores and patient-reported outcome measures as prognostic factor for the outcome after surgery were limited (n = 42). The studies reported 154 different outcomes. The most commonly reported outcomes after rTKA were: re-revision (155 times), readmission (88 times), and reinfection (85 times). Only five studies included costs as outcome. Conclusion. Outcomes and prognostic factors that are routinely registered as part of clinical practice (e.g. BMI, sex, complications) or in (inter)national registries are studied frequently. Studies on prognostic factors, such as functional and sociodemographic status, and outcomes as healthcare costs, cognitive and mental function, and psychosocial impact are scarce, while they have been shown to be important for patients with osteoarthritis. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(5):338–356


Bone & Joint Research
Vol. 13, Issue 9 | Pages 497 - 506
16 Sep 2024
Hsieh H Yen H Hsieh W Lin C Pan Y Jaw F Janssen SJ Lin W Hu M Groot O

Aims. Advances in treatment have extended the life expectancy of patients with metastatic bone disease (MBD). Patients could experience more skeletal-related events (SREs) as a result of this progress. Those who have already experienced a SRE could encounter another local management for a subsequent SRE, which is not part of the treatment for the initial SRE. However, there is a noted gap in research on the rate and characteristics of subsequent SREs requiring further localized treatment, obligating clinicians to extrapolate from experiences with initial SREs when confronting subsequent ones. This study aimed to investigate the proportion of MBD patients developing subsequent SREs requiring local treatment, examine if there are prognostic differences at the initial treatment between those with single versus subsequent SREs, and determine if clinical, oncological, and prognostic features differ between initial and subsequent SRE treatments. Methods. This retrospective study included 3,814 adult patients who received local treatment – surgery and/or radiotherapy – for bone metastasis between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2019. All included patients had at least one SRE requiring local treatment. A subsequent SRE was defined as a second SRE requiring local treatment. Clinical, oncological, and prognostic features were compared between single SREs and subsequent SREs using Mann-Whitney U test, Fisher’s exact test, and Kaplan–Meier curve. Results. Of the 3,814 patients with SREs, 3,159 (83%) patients had a single SRE and 655 (17%) patients developed a subsequent SRE. Patients who developed subsequent SREs generally had characteristics that favoured longer survival, such as higher BMI, higher albumin levels, fewer comorbidities, or lower neutrophil count. Once the patient got to the point of subsequent SRE, their clinical and oncological characteristics and one-year survival (28%) were not as good as those with only a single SRE (35%; p < 0.001), indicating that clinicians’ experiences when treating the initial SRE are not similar when treating a subsequent SRE. Conclusion. This study found that 17% of patients required treatments for a second, subsequent SRE, and the current clinical guideline did not provide a specific approach to this clinical condition. We observed that referencing the initial treatment, patients in the subsequent SRE group had longer six-week, 90-day, and one-year median survival than patients in the single SRE group. Once patients develop a subsequent SRE, they have a worse one-year survival rate than those who receive treatment for a single SRE. Future research should identify prognostic factors and assess the applicability of existing survival prediction models for better management of subsequent SREs. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(9):497–506


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 8 | Pages 963 - 971
1 Aug 2022
Sun Z Liu W Liu H Li J Hu Y Tu B Wang W Fan C

Aims. Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a common complication after elbow trauma and can cause severe upper limb disability. Although multiple prognostic factors have been reported to be associated with the development of post-traumatic HO, no model has yet been able to combine these predictors more succinctly to convey prognostic information and medical measures to patients. Therefore, this study aimed to identify prognostic factors leading to the formation of HO after surgery for elbow trauma, and to establish and validate a nomogram to predict the probability of HO formation in such particular injuries. Methods. This multicentre case-control study comprised 200 patients with post-traumatic elbow HO and 229 patients who had elbow trauma but without HO formation between July 2019 and December 2020. Features possibly associated with HO formation were obtained. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize feature selection. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build the new nomogram: the Shanghai post-Traumatic Elbow Heterotopic Ossification Prediction model (STEHOP). STEHOP was validated by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. Male sex, obesity, open wound, dislocations, late definitive surgical treatment, and lack of use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were identified as adverse predictors and incorporated to construct the STEHOP model. It displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.84). A high C-index value of 0.77 could still be reached in the internal validation. The calibration plot showed good agreement between nomogram prediction and observed outcomes. Conclusion. The newly developed STEHOP model is a valid and convenient instrument to predict HO formation after surgery for elbow trauma. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding treatment expectations and therapeutic choices. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):963–971


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 103-B, Issue 9 | Pages 1442 - 1448
1 Sep 2021
McDonnell JM Evans SR McCarthy L Temperley H Waters C Ahern D Cunniffe G Morris S Synnott K Birch N Butler JS

In recent years, machine learning (ML) and artificial neural networks (ANNs), a particular subset of ML, have been adopted by various areas of healthcare. A number of diagnostic and prognostic algorithms have been designed and implemented across a range of orthopaedic sub-specialties to date, with many positive results. However, the methodology of many of these studies is flawed, and few compare the use of ML with the current approach in clinical practice. Spinal surgery has advanced rapidly over the past three decades, particularly in the areas of implant technology, advanced surgical techniques, biologics, and enhanced recovery protocols. It is therefore regarded an innovative field. Inevitably, spinal surgeons will wish to incorporate ML into their practice should models prove effective in diagnostic or prognostic terms. The purpose of this article is to review published studies that describe the application of neural networks to spinal surgery and which actively compare ANN models to contemporary clinical standards allowing evaluation of their efficacy, accuracy, and relatability. It also explores some of the limitations of the technology, which act to constrain the widespread adoption of neural networks for diagnostic and prognostic use in spinal care. Finally, it describes the necessary considerations should institutions wish to incorporate ANNs into their practices. In doing so, the aim of this review is to provide a practical approach for spinal surgeons to understand the relevant aspects of neural networks. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(9):1442–1448


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 3 | Pages 210 - 217
13 Mar 2024
Mthethwa PG Marais LC Aldous CM

Aims. The aim of this study is to determine the predictors of overall survival (OS) and predictive factors of poor prognosis of conventional high-grade osteosarcoma of the limbs in a single-centre in South Africa. Methods. We performed a retrospective cross-sectional analysis to identify the prognostic factors that predict the OS of patients with histologically confirmed high-grade conventional osteosarcoma of the limbs over ten years. We employed the Cox proportional regression model and the Kaplan-Meier method for statistical analysis. Results. This study comprised 77 patients at a three-year minimum follow-up. The predictors of poor OS were: the median age of ≤ 19 years (hazard ratio (HR) 0.96; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.92 to 0.99; p = 0.021); median duration of symptoms ≥ five months (HR 0.91; 95% CI 0.83 to 0.99; p < 0.037); metastasis at diagnosis (i.e. Enneking stage III) (HR 3.33; 95% CI 1.81 to 6.00; p < 0.001); increased alkaline phosphatase (HR 3.28; 95% CI 1.33 to 8.11; p < 0.010); palliative treatment (HR 7.27; 95% CI 2.69 to 19.70); p < 0.001); and amputation (HR 3.71; 95% CI 1.12 to 12.25; p < 0.032). In contrast, definitive surgery (HR 0.11; 95% CI 0.03 to 0.38; p < 0.001) and curative treatment (HR 0.18; 95% CI 0.10 to 0.33; p < 0.001) were a protective factor. The Kaplan-Meier median survival time was 24 months, with OS of 57.1% at the three years. The projected five-year event-free survival was 10.3% and OS of 29.8% (HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.52 to 1.12; p = 0.128). Conclusion. In this series of high-grade conventional osteosarcoma of the appendicular skeleton from South Africa, 58.4% (n = 45) had detectable metastases at presentation; hence, an impoverished OS of five years was 29.8%. Large-scale future research is needed to validate our results. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(3):210–217


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 4 | Pages 486 - 494
4 Apr 2022
Liu W Sun Z Xiong H Liu J Lu J Cai B Wang W Fan C

Aims. The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a prognostic nomogram to predict the probability of gaining a functional range of motion (ROM ≥ 120°) after open arthrolysis of the elbow in patients with post-traumatic stiffness of the elbow. Methods. We developed the Shanghai Prediction Model for Elbow Stiffness Surgical Outcome (SPESSO) based on a dataset of 551 patients who underwent open arthrolysis of the elbow in four institutions. Demographic and clinical characteristics were collected from medical records. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize the selection of relevant features. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to build the SPESSO. Its prediction performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and a calibration graph. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. BMI, the duration of stiffness, the preoperative ROM, the preoperative intensity of pain, and grade of post-traumatic osteoarthritis of the elbow were identified as predictors of outcome and incorporated to construct the nomogram. SPESSO displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.73 (95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.81). A high C-index value of 0.70 could still be reached in the interval validation. The calibration graph showed good agreement between the nomogram prediction and the outcome. Conclusion. The newly developed SPESSO is a valid and convenient model which can be used to predict the outcome of open arthrolysis of the elbow. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding the choice and expectations of treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):486–494


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 7 | Pages 493 - 502
12 Jul 2021
George SZ Yan X Luo S Olson SA Reinke EK Bolognesi MP Horn ME

Aims. Patient-reported outcome measures have become an important part of routine care. The aim of this study was to determine if Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) measures can be used to create patient subgroups for individuals seeking orthopaedic care. Methods. This was a cross-sectional study of patients from Duke University Department of Orthopaedic Surgery clinics (14 ambulatory and four hospital-based). There were two separate cohorts recruited by convenience sampling (i.e. patients were included in the analysis only if they completed PROMIS measures during a new patient visit). Cohort #1 (n = 12,141; December 2017 to December 2018,) included PROMIS short forms for eight domains (Physical Function, Pain Interference, Pain Intensity, Depression, Anxiety, Sleep Quality, Participation in Social Roles, and Fatigue) and Cohort #2 (n = 4,638; January 2019 to August 2019) included PROMIS Computer Adaptive Testing instruments for four domains (Physical Function, Pain Interference, Depression, and Sleep Quality). Cluster analysis (K-means method) empirically derived subgroups and subgroup differences in clinical and sociodemographic factors were identified with one-way analysis of variance. Results. Cluster analysis yielded four subgroups with similar clinical characteristics in Cohort #1 and #2. The subgroups were: 1) Normal Function: within normal limits in Physical Function, Pain Interference, Depression, and Sleep Quality; 2) Mild Impairment: mild deficits in Physical Function, Pain Interference, and Sleep Quality but with Depression within normal limits; 3) Impaired Function, Not Distressed: moderate deficits in Physical Function and Pain Interference, but within normal limits for Depression and Sleep Quality; and 4) Impaired Function, Distressed: moderate (Physical Function, Pain Interference, and Sleep Quality) and mild (Depression) deficits. Conclusion. These findings suggest orthopaedic patient subgroups differing in physical function, pain, and psychosocial distress can be created from as few as four different PROMIS measures. Longitudinal research is necessary to determine whether these subgroups have prognostic validity. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(7):493–502


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 4 | Pages 380 - 386
1 Apr 2024
Cho J Lee S Kim D Oh W Koh I Chun Y Choi Y

Aims. The study aimed to assess the clinical outcomes of arthroscopic debridement and partial excision in patients with traumatic central tears of the triangular fibrocartilage complex (TFCC), and to identify prognostic factors associated with unfavourable clinical outcomes. Methods. A retrospective analysis was conducted on patients arthroscopically diagnosed with Palmer 1 A lesions who underwent arthroscopic debridement and partial excision from March 2009 to February 2021, with a minimum follow-up of 24 months. Patients were assessed using the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) questionnaire, Mayo Wrist Score (MWS), and visual analogue scale (VAS) for pain. The poor outcome group was defined as patients whose preoperative and last follow-up clinical score difference was less than the minimal clinically important difference of the DASH score (10.83). Baseline characteristics, arthroscopic findings, and radiological factors (ulnar variance, MRI, or arthrography) were evaluated to predict poor clinical outcomes. Results. A total of 114 patients were enrolled in this study, with a mean follow-up period of 29.8 months (SD 14.4). The mean DASH score improved from 36.5 (SD 21.5) to 16.7 (SD 14.3), the mean MWS from 59.7 (SD 17.9) to 79.3 (SD 14.3), and the mean VAS pain score improved from 5.9 (SD 1.8) to 2.2 (SD 2.0) at the last follow-up (all p < 0.001). Among the 114 patients, 16 (14%) experienced poor clinical outcomes and ten (8.8%) required secondary ulnar shortening osteotomy. Positive ulnar variance was the only factor significantly associated with poor clinical outcomes (p < 0.001). Positive ulnar variance was present in 38 patients (33%); among them, eight patients (21%) required additional operations. Conclusion. Arthroscopic debridement alone appears to be an effective and safe initial treatment for patients with traumatic central TFCC tears. The presence of positive ulnar variance was associated with poor clinical outcomes, but close observation after arthroscopic debridement is more likely to be recommended than ulnar shortening osteotomy as a primary treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(4):380–386


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 1 | Pages 168 - 176
1 Jan 2022
Spence S Doonan J Farhan-Alanie OM Chan CD Tong D Cho HS Sahu MA Traub F Gupta S

Aims. The modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) uses preoperative CRP and albumin to calculate a score from 0 to 2 (2 being associated with poor outcomes). mGPS is validated in multiple carcinomas. To date, its use in soft-tissue sarcoma (STS) is limited, with only small cohorts reporting that increased mGPS scores correlates with decreased survival in STS patients. Methods. This retrospective multicentre cohort study identified 493 STS patients using clinical databases from six collaborating hospitals in three countries. Centres performed a retrospective data collection for patient demographics, preoperative blood results (CRP and albumin levels and neutrophil, leucocyte, and platelets counts), and oncological outcomes (disease-free survival, local, or metastatic recurrence) with a minimum of two years' follow-up. Results. We found that increased mGPS, tumour size, grade, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, and disease recurrence were associated with reduced survival. Importantly, mGPS was the best at stratifying prognosis and could be used in conjunction with tumour grade to sub-stratify patient survival. Conclusion. This study demonstrated that prognosis of localized STS strongly correlates with mGPS, as an increasing score is associated with a poorer outcome. We note that 203 patients (41%) with an STS have evidence of systemic inflammation. We recommend the mGPS and other biochemical blood indicators be introduced into the routine diagnostic assessment in STS patients to stratify patient prognosis. Its use will support clinical decision-making, especially when morbid treatment options such as amputation are being considered. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(1):168–176


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 102-B, Issue 1 | Pages 72 - 81
1 Jan 2020
Downie S Lai FY Joss J Adamson D Jariwala AC

Aims. The early mortality in patients with hip fractures from bony metastases is unknown. The objectives of this study were to quantify 30- and 90-day mortality in patients with proximal femoral metastases, and to create a mortality prediction tool based on biomarkers associated with early death. Methods. This was a retrospective cohort study of consecutive patients referred to the orthopaedic department at a UK trauma centre with a proximal femoral metastasis (PFM) over a seven-year period (2010 to 2016). The study group were compared to a matched control group of non-metastatic hip fractures. Minimum follow-up was one year. Results. There was a 90-day mortality of 46% in patients with metastatic hip fractures versus 12% in controls (89/195 and 24/192, respectively; p < 0.001). Mean time to surgery was longer in symptomatic metastases versus complete fractures (9.5 days (SD 19.8) and 3.4 days (SD 11.4), respectively; p < 0.05). Albumin, urea, and corrected calcium were all independent predictors of early mortality and were used to generate a simple tool for predicting 90-day mortality, titled the Metastatic Early Prognostic (MEP) score. An MEP score of 0 was associated with the lowest risk of death at 30 days (14%, 3/21), 90 days (19%, 4/21), and one year (62%, 13/21). MEP scores of 3/4 were associated with the highest risk of death at 30 days (56%, 5/9), 90 days (100%, 9/9), and one year (100%, 9/9). Neither age nor primary cancer diagnosis was an independent predictor of mortality at 30 and 90 days. Conclusion. This score could be used to predict early mortality and guide perioperative counselling. The delay to surgery identifies a potential window to intervene and correct these abnormalities with the aim of improving survival. Cite this article: Bone Joint J. 2020;102-B(1):72–81


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 87-B, Issue 5 | Pages 698 - 703
1 May 2005
Katagiri H Takahashi M Wakai K Sugiura H Kataoka T Nakanishi K

Between 1992 and 1999, we treated 350 patients with skeletal metastases. A multivariable analysis of the patients was conducted using the Cox proportional hazards model. We identified five significant prognostic factors for survival, namely, the site of the primary lesion, the performance status (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group status 3 or 4), the presence of visceral or cerebral metastases, any previous chemotherapy, and multiple skeletal metastases. The score for each significant factor was derived from the corresponding estimated regression coefficients (natural logarithm of the hazard ratio). The prognostic score was calculated by adding all the scores for individual factors. The rate of survival was 31% at six months and 11% at one year for the patients with a prognostic score of 6 or more. By contrast, patients with a prognostic score of 2 or less had a rate of survival of 98% at six months and 89% at one year. This scoring system can be used to determine the optimal treatment for patients with pathological fractures or epidural compression


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 100-B, Issue 12 | Pages 1647 - 1654
1 Dec 2018
Shepherd KL Cool P Cribb G

Aims. The purpose of this study was to identify prognostic indicators of outcome at presentation to the orthopaedic surgeon, in patients with metastatic prostate cancer. Our aim was to use this information in a pragmatic, clinic-based approach so that surgical decision making could be optimized to benefit the patient in their remaining lifetime. Patients and Methods. A cohort analysis was undertaken of all patients with metastatic disease of the prostate who presented to a regional orthopaedic centre in the United Kingdom between 2003 and 2016. Biochemical data were collected in addition to disease and demographic data. These included: prostate-specific antigen (PSA) at orthopaedic presentation; haemoglobin (Hb); platelets (plt); alkaline phosphatase (ALP); albumin (Alb); and corrected calcium (CaC). Statistical analysis included Kaplan–Meier survival analysis, and a Cox proportional hazards model was fitted to the data. Results. From the departmental database, 137 episodes were identified in 136 patients with a median age at presentation of 72 years (interquartile range (IQR) 66 to 78). Most patients had stage IV disease (n = 98, 72%), and most did not undergo surgical intervention. At one-year follow-up, 50% of patients had died. Biomarkers found to be independently associated with poor survival were: low Hb, low Alb, relatively low PSA (< 30 mmol/l), and a raised ALP. Patients who needed surgical intervention had a poorer survival rate than patients who were managed nonoperatively. Conclusion. The study findings are important for orthopaedic clinical practice in the management of patients with metastatic prostate cancer. The interpretation of routine blood tests can help to predict survival in patients who present with orthopaedic manifestations of prostate cancer. A lower PSA is not necessarily a good prognostic sign. We believe that simple blood testing should be carried out routinely when assessing a patient, guiding potential surgical management and palliative care in the future


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 97-B, Issue 1 | Pages 134 - 140
1 Jan 2015
Kang S Kam M Miraj F Park S

A small proportion of children with Gartland type III supracondylar humeral fracture (SCHF) experience troubling limited or delayed recovery after operative treatment. We hypothesised that the fracture level relative to the isthmus of the humerus would affect the outcome. We retrospectively reviewed 230 children who underwent closed reduction and percutaneous pinning (CRPP) for their Gartland type III SCHFs between March 2003 and December 2012. There were 144 boys and 86 girls, with the mean age of six years (1.1 to 15.2). The clinico-radiological characteristics and surgical outcomes (recovery of the elbow range of movement, post-operative angulation, and the final Flynn grade) were recorded. Multivariate analysis was employed to identify prognostic factors that influenced outcome, including fracture level. Multivariate analysis revealed that a fracture below the humeral isthmus was significantly associated with poor prognosis in terms of the range of elbow movement (p < 0.001), angulation (p = 0.001) and Flynn grade (p = 0.003). Age over ten years was also a poor prognostic factor for recovery of the range of elbow movement (p = 0.027). This is the first study demonstrating a subclassification system of Gartland III fractures with prognostic significance. This will guide surgeons in peri-operative planning and counselling as well as directing future research aimed at improving outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:134–40


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 101-B, Issue 12 | Pages 1542 - 1549
1 Dec 2019
Kim JH Ahn JY Jeong SJ Ku NS Choi JY Kim YK Yeom J Song YG

Aims. Spinal tuberculosis (TB) remains an important concern. Although spinal TB often has sequelae such as myelopathy after treatment, the predictive factors affecting such unfavourable outcomes are not yet established. We investigated the clinical manifestations and predictors of unfavourable treatment outcomes in patients with spinal TB. Patients and Methods. We performed a multicentre retrospective cohort study of patients with spinal TB. Unfavourable outcome was defined according to previous studies. The prognostic factors for unfavourable outcomes as the primary outcome were determined using multivariable logistic regression analysis and a linear mixed model was used to compare time course of inflammatory markers during treatment. A total of 185 patients were included, of whom 59 patients had unfavourable outcomes. Results. In multivariate regression analysis, the factors associated with unfavourable outcome were old age (odds ratio (OR) 2.51; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07 to 5.86; p = 0.034), acid-fast bacilli (AFB) smear positivity in specimens obtained through biopsy (OR 3.05; 95% CI 1.06 to 8.80; p = 0.039), and elevated erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) at the end of treatment (OR 3.85; 95% CI 1.62 to 9.13; p = 0.002). Patients with unfavourable outcomes had a significant trend toward higher ESR during treatment compared with patients with favourable outcome (p = 0.009). Duration of anti-TB and surgical treatment did not affect prognosis. Conclusion. Elevated ESR at the end of treatment could be used as a marker to identify spinal TB patients with a poor prognosis. Patients whose ESR is not normalized during treatment, as well as those with old age and AFB smear positivity, should be aware of unfavourable outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1542–1549


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 97-B, Issue 12 | Pages 1698 - 1703
1 Dec 2015
Laitinen M Parry M Albergo JI Jeys L Abudu A Carter S Sumathi V Grimer R

The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic and therapeutic factors which influence the oncological outcome of parosteal osteosarcoma. A total of 80 patients with a primary parosteal osteosarcoma were included in this retrospective study. There were 51 females and 29 males with a mean age of 29.9 years (11 to 78). The mean follow-up was 11.2 years (1 to 40). Overall survival was 91.8% at five years and 87.8% at ten years. Local recurrence occurred in 14 (17.5%) patients and was associated with intralesional surgery and a large volume of tumour. On histological examination, 80% of the local recurrences were dedifferentiated high-grade tumours. A total of 12 (14.8%) patients developed pulmonary metastases, of whom half had either a dedifferentiated tumour or a local recurrence. Female gender and young age were good prognostic factors. Local recurrence was a poor prognostic factor for survival. Medullary involvement or the use of chemotherapy had no impact on survival. The main goal in treating a parosteal osteosarcoma must be to achieve a wide surgical margin, as inadequate margins are associated with local recurrence. Local recurrence has a significant negative effect on survival, as 80% of the local recurrences are high-grade dedifferentiated tumours, and half of these patients develop metastases. The role of chemotherapy in the treatment of parosteal osteosarcoma is not as obvious as it is in the treatment of conventional osteosarcoma. The mainstay of treatment is wide local excision. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:1698–1703


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 97-B, Issue 6 | Pages 847 - 852
1 Jun 2015
Nakamura T Matsumine A Asanuma K Matsubara T Sudo A

The aim of this study was to determine whether the high-sensitivity modified Glasgow prognostic score (Hs-mGPS) could predict the disease-specific survival and oncological outcome in adult patients with non-metastatic soft-tissue sarcoma before treatment. A total of 139 patients treated between 2001 and 2012 were retrospectively reviewed. The Hs-mGPS varied between 0 and 2. Patients with a score of 2 had a poorer disease-specific survival than patients with a score of 0 (p < 0.001). The estimated five-year rate of disease-specific survival for those with a score of 2 was 0%, compared with 85.4% (95% CI 77.3 to 93.5) for those with a score of 0. Those with a score of 2 also had a poorer disease-specific survival than those with a score of 1 (75.3%, 95% CI 55.8 to 94.8; p < 0.001). Patients with a score of 2 also had a poorer event-free rate than those with a score of 0 (p < 0.001). Those with a score of 2 also had a poorer event-free survival than did those with a score of 1 (p = 0.03). A multivariate analysis showed that the Hs-mGPS remained an independent predictor of survival and recurrence. The Hs-mGPS could be a useful prognostic marker in patients with a soft-tissue sarcoma. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015; 97-B:847–52


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 90-B, Issue 10 | Pages 1364 - 1371
1 Oct 2008
Wiig O Terjesen T Svenningsen S

This nationwide prospective study was designed to determine prognostic factors and evaluate the outcome of different treatments of Perthes’ disease. A total of 28 hospitals in Norway were instructed to report all new cases of Perthes’ disease over a period of five years and 425 patients were reported and followed for five years. Of these, 368 with unilateral disease were included in the present study. The hips were classified radiologically according to a modified two-group Catterall classification and the lateral pillar classification. A total of 358 patients (97%) attended the five-year follow-up, when a modified three-group Stulberg classification was used as a radiological outcome measure. For patients over six years of age at diagnosis and with more than 50% necrosis of the femoral head (152 patients), the surgeons at the different hospitals had chosen one of three methods of treatment: physiotherapy (55 patients), the Scottish Rite abduction orthosis (26), and proximal femoral varus osteotomy (71). Of these hips, 146 (96%) were available for the five-year follow-up. The strongest predictor of outcome was femoral head involvement of more or less than 50% (odds ratio (OR) = 7.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.82 to 21.37), followed by age at diagnosis (OR = 0.98, 95% CI 0.92 to 0.99) and the lateral pillar classification (OR = 0.62, 95% CI 0.40 to 0.98). In children over six years at diagnosis with more than 50% of femoral head necrosis, proximal femoral varus osteotomy gave a significantly better outcome than orthosis (p = 0.001) or physiotherapy (p = 0.001). There was no significant difference between the physiotherapy and orthosis groups (p = 0.36), and we found no difference in outcome after any of the treatments in children under six years (p = 0.73). We recommend proximal femoral varus osteotomy in children aged six years and over at the time of diagnosis with hips having more than 50% femoral head necrosis. The abduction orthosis should be abandoned in Perthes’ disease


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 74-B, Issue 4 | Pages 495 - 500
1 Jul 1992
Saddegh M Lindholm J Lundberg A Nilsonne U Kreicbergs A

In a retrospective study of all 137 patients with soft-tissue sarcoma treated by surgery between 1972 and 1984, the clinical course was related to several host and tumour features, including the Surgical Staging System of Enneking, Spanier and Goodman (1980). Only patients free from metastasis with untreated primary lesions on admission were included. According to the Surgical Staging System, nine tumours were IA, 18 IB, 38 IIA and 72 IIB. Only 12 patients underwent amputation; 125 were treated by local surgery. The mean follow-up time was ten years (minimum five). For the whole series the probability of seven-year survival was 0.65; 42 patients (31%) died from tumour disease. All these had metastases and 24 also had local recurrence. The local recurrence rate was 36%. Multivariate analysis identified large tumour size and high histological grade as significant risk factors for metastatic disease and tumour-related death. Sex, age, tumour site, surgical margin and local recurrence showed no correlation with survival. The prognostic contribution of compartmentality was virtually nil. Histological grade combined with tumour size was found to give better prognostic information than that obtained by the Surgical Staging System