Background. Involving research users in setting priorities for research is essential to ensure research outcomes are patient-centred and to maximise research value and impact. The Musculoskeletal (MSK) Disorders Research Advisory Group Versus Arthritis led a research priority setting exercise across MSK disorders. Methods. The Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHRNI) method of setting research priorities with a range of stakeholders were utilised. The MSKD RAG identified, through consensus, four research Domains: Mechanisms of Disease; Diagnosis and Impact; Living Well with MSK disorders and Successful Translation. Following ethical approval, the research priority exercise involved four stages and two surveys, to: 1) gather research uncertainties; 2) consolidate these; 3) score uncertainties using agreed criteria of importance and impact on a score of 1–10; and 4) analyse scoring, for prioritisation. Results. The first survey had 209 respondents, who described 1290 research uncertainties, which were refined into 68 research questions. 285 people responded to the second survey. The largest group of respondents represented patients and carers, followed by researchers and healthcare professionals. A ranked list was produced, with scores ranging between 12 and 18. Key priorities included developing and testing new treatments, better targeting of treatments, early diagnosis, prevention and better understanding and management of pain, with an emphasis on understanding underpinning mechanisms. Conclusions. For the first time, we have summarised priorities for research across MSKD, from discovery science to applied clinical and health research, including translation. We present a call to action to researchers and funders to target these priorities. Conflict of Interest: None. Sources of funding: We thank the funder, Versus Arthritis for their support of the research advisory groups and this activity

Purpose of Study and Background. Population ageing will facilitate an increase in health problems common in older adults, such as musculoskeletal conditions. Musculoskeletal conditions are the fourth largest contributor to disease burden in older adults; affecting quality of life, physical activity, mental wellbeing and independence. Therefore primary care health services must provide appropriate and efficacious management and treatment. However there are a number of complexities specific to older adults that are essential to address. Methods and Results. In order to identify these complexities, a review of the background literature was undertaken in addition to a Patient and Public Involvement and Engagement (PPIE) session. The PPIE group consisted of eight older adults who experience chronic musculoskeletal pain. This session was used to discuss and explore what factors are important to consider in GP consultations for musculoskeletal pain for older adults, in addition to those identified through background literature. A number of factors were highlighted through these methods, including the difference in mood and aspirations for older adults; taking a holistic approach; the impact of comorbidities; whether the GP is listening and ‘on the same wavelength’, and older adults' expectations regarding their pain and the consultation. Conclusion. Management of musculoskeletal pain for older adults in GP consultations is complex due to a range of factors, reinforcing the importance of taking a holistic approach. The impact of these factors upon the experience and outcomes of GP consultations will be further explored through in depth interviews with older adults with musculoskeletal pain. Conflicts of interest. No conflicts of interest. Sources of funding. This PhD is funded as part of an ACORN studentship awarded by Keele University. This PhD is nested within the Treatment for Aches and Pains Study, funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) under its Programme Grants for Applied Research scheme (grant number: RP-PG-1211-20010)

Purpose of study. Cauda Equina Syndrome (CES) is a surgical emergency. With Physiotherapists increasingly taking on first-contact and spinal triage roles, screening for CES must be as thorough and effective as possible. This study explores whether Physiotherapists are asking the correct questions, in the correct way and investigates their experiences when screening for this serious condition. Background. Thirty physiotherapists working in a community musculoskeletal service were purposively invited to participate in semi-structured interviews. Data was transcribed and thematically analysed. Methods and Results. All participants routinely asked bladder, bowel function and saddle anaesthesia screening questions although only 9 routinely asked about sexual function. Whether questions are asked in the correct way has never been studied. Sufficient depth of questioning was achieved by 63% of participants, 76% used lay terminology and 73% used explicit language. Only 43% framed the questions before asking them and only 16% combined all four dimensions. Whilst most participants (n = 25) felt comfortable asking general CES questions, 50% reported feeling uncomfortable when asking about sexual function. Issues around; gender, culture and language were also highlighted. Conclusion. Four main themes emerged from this study; i) Physiotherapists ask the right questions but frequently omit sexual function questions, ii) mostly, Physiotherapists ask CES questions in a way that patients understand however, there needs to be improvement in framing the context of the questions, iii) Physiotherapists generally feel comfortable with CES screening but there is some awkwardness surrounding discussion of sexual function and iv) Physiotherapists perceive there to be barriers to effective CES screening caused by culture and language. Conflicts of interest: No conflicts of interest. Sources of funding: No funding obtained. Previously presented poster at BritSpine 2021 and VPUK 2021

Background and purpose. The musculoskeletal system is recognized as a possible source of pain in patients with chest pain. The objectives of the present study were (1) to investigate the interobserver reliability of an overall diagnosis of musculoskeletal chest pain using a standardized examination protocol in a cohort of patients with chest pain suspected to be of non-cardiac origin, (2) to investigate the interobserver reliability of the single components of the protocol, and finally, (3) to investigate the importance of clinical experience on the level of interobserver reliability. Methods and results. Eighty patients with acute chest pain were recruited from a cardiology department. Four observers (two chiropractors and two chiropractic students) performed a physical examination and an extended manual examination of the spine and chest wall. Percentage agreement, Cohen's Kappa and ICC were calculated for observer pairs and overall. Musculoskeletal chest pain was diagnosed in 44.0 % of patients. Interobserver kappa values were substantial for the chiropractors and overall, and moderate for the students. For single items of the protocol, both pairs showed fair to substantial agreement regarding pain provocation tests and poor to fair agreement regarding spinal segmental dysfunction tests. Conclusions. Suspected musculoskeletal chest pain can be identified with substantial interobserver reliability using this standardized protocol if used by experienced and trained observers. Agreement for individual components of the protocol showed, however, considerable variation. Provided training of observers, the examination protocol can be used in selected patients and can be implemented in pre- and post-graduate clinical training

Background and purpose. The musculoskeletal system is a common, but often overlooked, cause of chest pain. Little is known about the efficacy of spinal manipulation for this condition. The purpose of the present study is to evaluate the relative effectiveness of two conservative treatment approaches for acute musculoskeletal chest pain, 1) a spinal manipulation-based therapy as a typical example of chiropractic treatment and 2) self-management as an example of minimal intervention. Methods and results. In a non-blinded, randomised controlled trial set at an emergency cardiology department and four outpatient chiropractic clinics, 115 consecutive patients with acute chest pain and no clear medical diagnosis at initial presentation were included. After a baseline evaluation, patients with musculoskeletal chest pain were randomized to four weeks of chiropractic treatment or self-management, with post-treatment questionnaire follow-up four and 12 weeks later. Primary outcome measures were numeric change in pain intensity (11-point box numerical rating scale) and self-perceived change in pain (7-point ordinal scale). Secondary measures included Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 36 (SF-36) scores, change in pain intensity (chest, thoracic spine, neck and shoulder/arm), and self-perceived change in general health. Preliminary results will be available at the time of presentation. Conclusions. This is the first randomised controlled trial assessing chiropractic treatment versus a minimal intervention in patients with musculoskeletal chest pain. Results will indicate whether chiropractic treatment is a useful option for patients with musculoskeletal chest pain, but the design does not allow for standardisation of treatment or identification of potentially active ingredients of care

Purpose of the study and background

Healthcare practitioners' (HCPs) attitudes and beliefs about MSK pain influence their practice behaviour. The Pain Attitudes and Beliefs Scale (PABS), developed for use in the context of LBP, consists of two subscales (biomedical and biopsychosocial) is the most widely used measure. However, poor performance of the biopsychosocial orientation scale is attributed, in part, to inadequate conceptualisation of the orientation.

Purpose and background

Nearly 70% of UK physiotherapists experience work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WRMSDs) during their career, with a significant proportion occurring in the back and being attributed to patient handling tasks. Evidence suggests that manual handling training alone is ineffective and interventions among nurses indicate that a tailored approach, including targeted exercise (TE), can reduce WRMSD rates. This study aimed to explore physiotherapists’ perspectives of WRMSDs, patient handling, and the role of TE in reducing WRMSDs among physiotherapists.

Background. Improving primary care management of musculoskeletal (MSK) pain is a priority. A pilot cluster RCT tested prognostic stratified care for patients with common MSK pain presentations, including low back pain, in 8 UK general practices (4 stratified care; 4 usual care) with 524 patients. GPs in stratified care practices were asked to use i) the Keele STarT MSK tool for risk-stratification and ii) matched treatment options for patients at low-, medium- and high-risk of persistent pain. A linked qualitative process evaluation explored patients' and GPs' views and experiences of stratified care. Methods. Individual ‘stimulated-recall’ interviews with patients and GPs in the stratified care arm (n=10 patients; 10 GPs), prompted by consultation-recordings. Data were analysed thematically and mapped onto the COM-B behaviour change model; exploring the Opportunity, Capability and Motivation GPs and patients had to engage with stratified care. Results. Patients reported positive views that stratified care enabled a more ‘structured’ consultation. GPs identified difficulties integrating the STarT MSK tool in their consultation timeframe (Opportunity), but found this easier as it became more familiar. Both groups saw the tool as having added-value, but identified ‘cumbersome’ items which made it more difficult to use (Capability). GPs reported the matched treatment options aided their clinical decision-making, identified several that were not available to them (e.g. pain-management clinics) and suggested additional options (e.g. GP-management of psychosocial issues (Motivation). Conclusion. Changes to the STarT MSK tool and matched treatment options, targeting the COM-B model constructs, were identified and have been implemented in the current main trial. Conflicts of interest statement: No conflicts of interest. Sources of funding: This paper presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) under its Programme Grants for Applied Research scheme (grant number: RP-PG-1211-20010). The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care. Nadine Foster is a NIHR Senior Investigator and was supported through an NIHR Research Professorship (NIHR-RP-011-015). Trial registration: ISRCTN15366334

Background. Emerging research has indicated that ‘significant others’ (spouses/relatives) may have important influences on continued work participation for individuals with chronic non-specific musculoskeletal pain (CMP). In order to expand on this novel area of research, data from studies conducted in The Netherlands and the UK were assimilated. Method. In both studies, worker and significant other perceptions of pain self-efficacy, perceived partner responses to pain, pain catastrophizing, and contribution to work participation were explored in relation to the worker's CMP. In the Netherlands, questionnaire data were collected from workers with CMP and their significant others (n=103), and in the UK, in-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted (n=10). Appropriate quantitative and qualitative analysis techniques were applied. Results. In the Dutch study, moderate to high levels of perceived pain self-efficacy, moderate levels of significant other solicitous and distracting responses, and low levels of significant other punishing responses and catastrophizing were reported by both significant others and workers. Significant others were viewed as crucial in helping maintain continued work participation by workers with CMP. Overall group averages indicated no significant differences, with the exception of greater pain catastrophizing reported by significant others (14.4 versus 11.1 p<0.01), although this was not deemed clinically relevant (ES=0.34). Qualitative data from the UK study supports these findings, further elaborating on the above concepts. Conclusions. This study adds further weight to the evidence which recognizes the importance of social context for successful pain management and vocational rehabilitation interventions. Conflicts of interest: No conflicts of interest. Sources of funding: Funded by Instituut Gak and the BUPA foundation

Background to the study:. The use of Patient Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs) is being increasingly advocated but data are still being collected using paper systems. This is costly and environmentally challenging. New innovations are required to balance the challenges of capturing PROM data while considering budgets, and access to IT, and patient choice. Purpose of the study:. To develop and test a mobile phone and web app for collecting patient reported outcomes about musculoskeletal symptoms. Methods:. The content of the app was developed following qualitative work with patients and clinicians, and a review of measurement properties of different PROMs. Early versions of the app underwent α- and β-testing to identify issues with functionality. The PROM app was pilot-tested to assess feasibility, responsiveness, and test-retest reliability of the PROMs. The pilot version of the app contained demographic data, the Roland Morris Disability Questionnaire (RMDQ), the Bournemouth Questionnaire, and Visual Analogue Scale for pain. At follow-up additional questions exploring patient satisfaction and experience of care, plus a transition question were asked. Results:. A total of 517 patient codes were allocated. Completed datasets were gathered from patients (N=92) potentially indicating issues with acceptability and feasibility. Data analysis indicated good completion of questions. The RMDQ appeared to be largely redundant in this patient population and was removed in the final version of the app. Conclusion:. The app performed well when used by participants. Support is required for practitioners and patients to implement this electronic data capture system

Introduction. Early intervention is advocated to prevent long-term work absence due to musculoskeletal (MSK) pain. The SWAP trial tested whether adding a vocational advice (VA) service to best current care led to fewer days work absence over 4 months. Methods. The SWAP trial was a cluster randomised controlled trial in 6 general practices, 3 randomised to best current care (control), 3 randomised to best current care and the VA service (intervention). Patients were ≥18 years, absent from work ≤6 months or struggling at work due to MSK pain. Primary outcome was number of days absent over 4 months. Exploratory subgroup analyses examined whether the effect was larger for patients with spinal pain compared to other MSK pain. Results. 338 participants (158 intervention, 180 control) were recruited with 79% followed-up at 4 months. Participants in the intervention arm had significantly fewer days absent over 4 months (mean 9.3 days, SD 21.7) compared with control (mean 14.4 days, SD 27.7); adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.51 (0.26, 0.99), p=0.048. This difference was largely due to fewer GP certified absent days (8.4 days versus 13.5 days). At 12 months the effect of the VA service was significantly greater in those with spinal pain compared to patients with other MSK problems (IRR. interaction. : 0.25 (95% Confidence Interval 0.10, 0.62) (p . interaction. =0.003). Conclusions. Adding a VA service to best current primary care for MSK pain leads to significantly fewer days absent from work over 4 months, with exploratory analysis indicating the VA service is particularly effective for patients with spinal pain. No conflicts of interest. This paper presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), under its Programme Grants for Applied Research funding scheme: “Optimal management of spinal pain and sciatica in primary care” (NIHR-RP-PG-0707-10131). NEF and AB are funded by an NIHR Research Professorship (NIHR-RP-011-015). NEF and EMH are NIHR Senior Investigators. GW-J is funded by an NIHR Post-Doctoral Fellowship (PDF-2009-02-54). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health

Purpose

The aim of this study was to explore the usefulness and feasibility of comprehensive vocational rehabilitation (C-VR) and less comprehensive vocational rehabilitation (LC-VR) for workers on sick leave due to CMP, from the perspective of patients, professionals, and managers.

Background

Chronic pain is a complex condition that demonstrates better outcomes in multidisciplinary rehabilitation, typically delivered to groups of patients by tertiary healthcare teams. An inter-disciplinary pain management course for individual patients was developed to increase the scope of physical therapists working in primary care by integrating osteopathic manual therapy with psychological interventions from Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT), a form of ‘3rd wave’ Cognitive Behaviour Therapy.

To evaluate the patient experience of patients referred to the ESP Orthopaedic Triage Service. To identify the demographic data of the patients

To evaluate patients' expectations and satisfaction of the service

A prospective audit of 50 new patients to the ESP service in Mountain Ash General Hospital and Prince Charles Hospital

The audit was carried out over a 3 month period between December 2008 and February 2009.

Patients were asked to anonymously complete a survey following their appointment. Data was collated independently and analysed with descriptive statistics.

Patients referred to ESP service

Self administered satisfaction survey.

Mean age range 40-59 yrs (range 20 -70yrs). 50% >1 year duration of symptoms.

94% of patient's surveyed rated the service provided as good - excellent. 88% of patient's reported that they were happy to be assessed by the ESP.

96% of patients surveyed agreed they were able to discuss their treatment openly with only 10% preferring to see a Doctor.

The ESP service in Cwm Taff Health board achieves a high level of patient satisfaction.

Background and study purpose. Low mood and distress are commonly reported with by people with persistent musculoskeletal pain and may be mislabelled as ‘depression’. In order to understand how pain-related distress is conceptualised and managed in primary care consultations, we explored understanding of pain-related distress and depression from the perspectives of people with persistent musculoskeletal pain and general practitioners (GPs). Method and results. Semi-structured interviews with 21 GPs and 21 people with persistent musculoskeletal pain were conducted. The majority of people with pain had back pain (15/21). Data were analysed thematically using constant comparison techniques. Participants described challenges distinguishing between distress and depression in the context of persistent pain but described strategies to make this distinction. Some people with pain described how acceptance of their situation was key, involving optimism about the future and creation of a new identity. Some GPs expressed ‘therapeutic nihilism’, with uncertainty about the cause of pain and thus how to manage people with both pain and distress, whilst GPs who could identify and build on optimism with patients described how this could help the patient to move forwards. Conclusion. This study offers a model for the primary care consultation with patients presenting with pain-related distress. GPs should recognize the impact of pain on the patient, support the person in acceptance of the pain, explore how the person feels about the future, encourage optimism, and support self-management strategies. Conflicts of Interest: No conflict of interests. Sources of funding: This study was funded by Versus Arthritis – grant number: 22454; Carolyn A Chew-Graham is part-funded by NIHR Applied Research Collaboration (ARC) West Midlands

Background and study purpose. Low back pain with no identified underlying cause is categorised as primary musculoskeletal pain by the International Association for the Study of Pain. In April 2021, the National Institute for Care and Excellence (NICE) published updated guidance for the management of primary chronic pain conditions in England. As part of the De-STRESS pain study, we explored the perspectives of GPs on the updated guideline and impact upon clinical practice. Methods and results. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 21 GPs in England. Data were analysed using thematic analysis and constant comparison techniques. GPs agreed with the recommendations restricting pharmacological options for pain management and reflected that they now had an expert reference to back-up their decision-making and could use the guidance in potentially difficult conversations with patients. Frustration was expressed by GPs about the lack of alternative options to medication, as the non-pharmacological recommendations were difficult to implement, had lengthy waiting lists, or were unavailable in their locality. Conclusion. Although GPs discussed benefits of the updated NICE guideline in potentially reducing prescriptions of ineffective and potentially harmful medications, frustration about the lack of alternative strategies added to the difficulties encountered in managing people with persistent back pain in primary care. Conflicts of interest: No conflicts of interest. Sources of funding: This study was funded by Versus Arthritis – grant number 22454; Carolyn A Chew-Graham is part-funded by NIHR Applied Research Collaboration (ARC) West Midlands

Purpose of study and background. Psychological factors are considered to play a role in development and maintenance of chronic low back pain (CLBP). Stress or anxiety can change pain sensitivity; however, this has predominantly been studied in healthy individuals with limited work in individuals with musculoskeletal pain. The objective of this study was to quantify the effect of acute exposure to a psychosocial stressor on mechanical pain sensitivity in individuals with and without CLBP. Summary of methods and results. Six individuals with CLBP and 10 individuals without CLBP performed a 10-minute computer task under conditions of low and high psychosocial stress. Psychosocial stress was manipulated using mental maths and memory tasks combined with social evaluative threat. The effect of the stressor was evaluated using blood pressure, heart rate and the state anxiety component of the Spielberger State-Trait Anxiety Index. Mechanical pressure pain threshold (PPT) was recorded on the tibialis anterior muscle using a handheld digital pressure algometer. The stress manipulation increased self-reported anxiety (p<0.001), but not blood pressure or heart rate (p>0.06). Change in PPT from low to high stress was greater in the CLBP group (median ΔPPT = −0.5 kg/cm. 2. ) than in the control group (−0.15 kg/cm. 2. ; p=0.005). Conclusion. Individuals experienced an increase in pain sensitivity after acute exposure to a stressor designed to mimic low-level workplace stressors, and this increase was greater in individuals with CLBP than asymptomatic individuals. These results indicate that this experimental model can be used to study links between pain sensitivity and psychosocial stressors and increase our understanding of their potential role in CLBP. Conflicts of Interest: No conflicts of interest. Sources of funding: No funding obtained

Background. Scoliosis is described as a lateral spinal curvature exceeding ten degrees on radiograph with vertebral rotation. Approximately 80% of scoliosis presentations are adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Current management for AIS in the UK occurs in Surgeon or Paediatrician-led clinics and can be conservative or surgical. The musculoskeletal assessment and triage of AIS appears well-suited to an advanced physiotherapist practitioner (APP) skill set. The aim of this service evaluation was to scope, develop, implement and evaluate a four-month pilot of an APP-led AIS triage pathway. Method and Results. Spinal Consultant deformity and scoliosis clinics were scoped and observed. Clinic inclusion criteria and a patient assessment form was developed. An APP AIS clinic was set up beside a consultant led clinic. All patients assessed were discussed with a spinal surgeon. Consultant and APP agreement (% of total), waiting times, surgical conversion, and patient satisfaction were reviewed. A clinical competency package was developed for training and development of APPs. A total of 49 patients were seen (20 sessions). Waiting list reduced from 10 weeks to 6 weeks. 45%(n=22) of new patients seen were diagnosed with AIS, 27% (n=6) were directly listed for surgery. Consultant/ APP percentage agreement was high for Cobb angle measurement (82%), management plans (90%), and further diagnostic requests (94%). There were no adverse events and high patient satisfaction levels (n=20), (100% Very satisfied or satisfied) were reported. Conclusion. APP-led AIS clinics can provide similar levels of management and assessment as Spinal Consultants with improved waiting times and high levels of satisfaction. Conflicts of interest: No conflicts of interest. Sources of funding: No funding obtained

Spinal deformations are posture dependent. Official data from the Netherlands show that youth are encountering increasing problems with the musculoskeletal system (>40% back pain, and sport injury proneness). Prolonged sloth and slumped sitting postures are causative factors. Dutch youth are “champion sitting” in Europe. The effects of sitting on the development of posture and function of locomotion (stiffness) during growth have only been reported clearly in classic textbooks (in German) of practical anatomy and orthopaedics. Research with relevant clinical examinations is being done to understand epidemiological data on the increasing posture-dependent problems. A cohort of adolescents (15–18 years) in secondary school was assessed for sagittal postural deviations while bending. 248 children completed a questionnaire, and tests were done on neuromuscular tightness. The femorotibial angle was used to measure hamstring tightness. Measurement of the dorsiflexion of the foot was used to assess the tightness of calf muscles and Achilles tendons. All adolescents were photographed laterally while performing the finger–floor test (used to test flexibility), assessed as a knockout test: “Can you reach the floor or not?” The spinal profiles while bending were classified as abnormal arcuate or angular kyphosis. Hamstring tightness was present in 62.1% of the cohort in both legs, and in 18.2% unilaterally. Achilles tendon tightness was present bilaterally in 59.3%, and unilaterally in 19.4%. Activities with presence of stiffness (finger–floor distance), in descending order, were football, running, no sports, field hockey, tennis, dance, and gymnastics. 93.5% of the soccer players had tight hamstrings in both legs compared with none of those performing gymnastics. The correlation of the finger–floor test with tight hamstrings was 73.2%. For sagittal bending deformities, the correlation between form and function deficits cannot be made yet. 80 of 248 spines were rated by the examiners as having deformed flexion. Since Andry (1741) and at the zenith of continental orthopaedics and anatomy around 1900, the prolonged flexed positions of a young spine were indicated as being the main cause of deformity by overload and shear loads on immature discs and cartilage, preventing normal development of the discs. Nachemson proved that the intradiscal pressure in sitting adults was extremely high, so it follows that children must also be at risk. Evidence suggests that youth, generally because of their sedentary and “screenful lifestyle”, will encounter serious problems in growth, manifesting as incongruent neuro-osseous growth (Roth), serious neuromuscular tightness (being prone to injury), and spinal deformations, leading to pain

Background. Serious traumatic injury is a leading cause of death and disability globally, with the majority of survivors developing chronic pain. Methods. The aims of this study were to describe early predictors of poor long-term outcome for post-trauma pain. We conducted a prospective observational study, recruiting patients admitted to a Major Trauma Centre hospital in England within 14 days of their injuries, and followed them for 12 months. We defined a poor outcome as Chronic Pain Grade ≥ II and measured this at both 6-months and 12-months. A broad range of candidate predictors were used, including surrogates for pain mechanisms, quantitative sensory testing, and psychosocial factors. Univariate models were used to identify the strongest predictors of poor outcome, which were entered into multivariate models. Results. 124 eligible participants were recruited. At 6-months, 19 (23.2%) of 82 respondents reported a good outcome, whereas at 12-months 27 (61.4%) of 44 respondents reported a good outcome. The multivariate model for 6-months produced odds ratios for a unit increase in: number of fractures, 3.179 (0.52 to 19.61); average pain intensity, 1.611 (0.96 to 2.7); pain extent, 1.138 (0.92 to 1.41) and post-traumatic stress symptoms, 1.044 (0.10 to 1.10). At 12-months, equivalent values were: number of fractures, 1.653 (0.77 to 3.55); average pain intensity, 0.967 (0.67 to 1.40); pain extent, 1.062 (0.92 to 1.23) and post-traumatic stress symptoms, 1.025 (0.99 to 1.07). Conclusion. A poor long-term pain outcome from musculoskeletal traumatic injuries can be predicted by measures recorded within days of injury. Conflicts of interest: No conflicts of interest. Sources of funding: This study was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Surgical Reconstruction and Microbiology Research Centre (SRMRC)