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The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 1 | Pages 97 - 102
1 Jan 2022
Hijikata Y Kamitani T Nakahara M Kumamoto S Sakai T Itaya T Yamazaki H Ogawa Y Kusumegi A Inoue T Yoshida T Furue N Fukuhara S Yamamoto Y

Aims. To develop and internally validate a preoperative clinical prediction model for acute adjacent vertebral fracture (AVF) after vertebral augmentation to support preoperative decision-making, named the after vertebral augmentation (AVA) score. Methods. In this prognostic study, a multicentre, retrospective single-level vertebral augmentation cohort of 377 patients from six Japanese hospitals was used to derive an AVF prediction model. Backward stepwise selection (p < 0.05) was used to select preoperative clinical and imaging predictors for acute AVF after vertebral augmentation for up to one month, from 14 predictors. We assigned a score to each selected variable based on the regression coefficient and developed the AVA scoring system. We evaluated sensitivity and specificity for each cut-off, area under the curve (AUC), and calibration as diagnostic performance. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping to correct the optimism. Results. Of the 377 patients used for model derivation, 58 (15%) had an acute AVF postoperatively. The following preoperative measures on multivariable analysis were summarized in the five-point AVA score: intravertebral instability (≥ 5 mm), focal kyphosis (≥ 10°), duration of symptoms (≥ 30 days), intravertebral cleft, and previous history of vertebral fracture. Internal validation showed a mean optimism of 0.019 with a corrected AUC of 0.77. A cut-off of ≤ one point was chosen to classify a low risk of AVF, for which only four of 137 patients (3%) had AVF with 92.5% sensitivity and 45.6% specificity. A cut-off of ≥ four points was chosen to classify a high risk of AVF, for which 22 of 38 (58%) had AVF with 41.5% sensitivity and 94.5% specificity. Conclusion. In this study, the AVA score was found to be a simple preoperative method for the identification of patients at low and high risk of postoperative acute AVF. This model could be applied to individual patients and could aid in the decision-making before vertebral augmentation. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(1):97–102


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 102-B, Issue SUPP_7 | Pages 13 - 13
1 Jul 2020
Schaeffer E Hooper N Banting N Pathy R Cooper A Reilly CW Mulpuri K
Full Access

Fractures through the physis account for 18–30% of all paediatric fractures, leading to growth arrest in 5.5% of cases. We have limited knowledge to predict which physeal fractures result in growth arrest and subsequent deformity or limb length discrepancy. The purpose of this study is to identify factors associated with physeal growth arrest to improve patient outcomes. This prospective cohort study was designed to develop a clinical prediction model for growth arrest after physeal injury. Patients < 1 8 years old presenting within four weeks of injury were enrolled if they had open physes and sustained a physeal fracture of the humerus, radius, ulna, femur, tibia or fibula. Patients with prior history of same-site fracture or a condition known to alter bone growth or healing were excluded. Demographic data, potential prognostic indicators and radiographic data were collected at baseline, one and two years post-injury. A total of 167 patients had at least one year of follow-up. Average age at injury was 10.4 years, 95% CI [9.8,10.94]. Reduction was required in 51% of cases. Right-sided (52.5%) and distal (90.1%) fractures were most common. After initial reduction 52.5% of fractures had some form of residual angulation and/or displacement (38.5% had both). At one year follow-up, 34 patients (21.1%) had evidence of a bony bridge on plain radiograph, 10 (6.2%) had residual angulation (average 12.6°) and three had residual displacement. Initial angulation (average 22.4°) and displacement (average 5.8mm) were seen in 16/34 patients with bony bridge (48.5%), with 10 (30.3%) both angulated and displaced. Salter-Harris type II fractures were most common across all patients (70.4%) and in those with bony bridges (57.6%). At one year, 44 (27.3%) patients had evidence of closing/closed physes. At one year follow-up, there was evidence of a bony bridge across the physis in 21.1% of patients on plain film, and residual angulation and/or displacement in 8.1%. Initial angulation and/or displacement was present in 64.7% of patients showing possible evidence of growth arrest. The incidence of growth arrest in this patient population appears higher than past literature reports. However, plain film is an unreliable modality for assessing physeal bars and the true incidence may be lower. A number of patients were approaching skeletal maturity at time of injury and any growth arrest is likely to have less clinical significance in these cases. Further prospective long-term follow-up is required to determine the true incidence and impact of growth arrest


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 90-B, Issue SUPP_I | Pages 49 - 49
1 Mar 2008
Greidanus N Garbuz D Wilson D McAlinden G Masri B Duncan C
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The prospective evaluation of two hundred and seven symptomatic total knee arthroplasties presenting for revision total knee arthroplasty is reported. On univariate analysis patients who had infection differed significantly (p< .001) from those without infection with regards to: elevated ESR, CRP, positive aspiration, and history of; revision procedure less than two years since last surgery, early wound problems, ongoing pain since index procedure, and discharging wound. On multivariate analysis elevated ESR or CRP, positive aspiration, pain since index procedure and early wound complications were significant predictors of infection (p< .05). These variables were then used to formulate an evidence-based multivariate predictive algorithm to assist the clinician in decision making prior to surgery. Differentiating septic from aseptic failure of total knee arthroplasty on the basis of clinical features and diagnostic tests can be troublesome for the clinician. The purpose of this paper is to describe significant differences between cases of septic and aseptic failure of total knee arthroplasty. The incorporation of these variables into a practical multivariate clinical prediction algorithm can provide assistance in establishing the diagnosis of infection prior to revision knee arthroplasty. A simple clinical prediction algorithm can assist in the diagnosis of infection in patients with painful total knee arthroplasty. Patients with five of five criteria have a 99% probability of infection whereas patients with zero of five criteria have a 1% probability of infection. This is the first multivariate evidence-based clinical prediction algorithm presented for use in decision making prior to revision total knee arthroplasty. The surgeon can use the information derived from clinical and laboratory assessment to compute an approximate pre-operative probability of infection prior to surgery (see table). On multivariate analysis elevated ESR or CRP, positive aspiration, pain since index procedure and early wound complications were significant predictors of infection (p< .05). These variables were then used to formulate an evidence-based multivariate predictive algorithm to assist in clinical decision making. Prospective data was collected on two hundred and seven symptomatic knee arthroplasties presenting for revision arthroplasty. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to determine the probability of infection using five significant variables. Combinations of these five variables can provide the clinician with an estimate of the probability of infection prior to revision knee arthroplasty. Please contact author for tables and/or charts


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 92-B, Issue SUPP_I | Pages 73 - 73
1 Mar 2010
Shin S Zeni A Crichlow R Maar D Kaehr D Stone M Vijay P
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PURPOSE: To determine the capability of fellowship trained Orthopaedic Trauma surgeons to predict union or non-union of femoral and tibial shaft fractures. METHODS: A series of 50 patients with femur or tibia shaft fractures were evaluated. Patients were prospectively followed at 2,6,12, and 18 weeks after surgical intervention. At each interval surgeons evaluated factors related to fracture healing on AP and lateral radiographs and predicted the probability of union on a visual analog scale. Union was defined as radiographic evidence of healing three of four cortices, no tenderness with palpation of the fracture site, and full weight bearing without the use of assistive devices. RESULTS: Eight patients missed initial visits or were lost to follow-up, making for a total of 42 patients that were included in the results. Average patient age was 31 years. Eighty-one percent of the patients went onto union (N=34) and 19% went onto nonunion (N=8). Early clinical prediction for nonunion at 2 weeks had a sensitivity of 50%, a specificity of 91%, a positive predictive value (PPV) of 57%, and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 89%. At 6 weeks, there was a sensitivity of 75%, a specificity of 100%, a PPV of 100%, and a NPV of 94%. One patient treated with intramedullary nailing was 15 years old and despite minimal callous formation the physician incorrectly predicted future union given the young age. The other patient had a severely comminuted femur fracture and required a quad cane to ambulate and should perhaps have been predicted to go onto nonunion. At 12 and 18 weeks, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were both 100%. CONCLUSIONS: Fellowship trained orthopaedic trauma surgeons at 6-week follow-up can predict union with a sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 100% and a PPV of 100%. Early clinical prediction at 6 weeks can be used to provide the patient with a secondary intervention such as a bone graft or bone stimulator and avoid months of delay


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 92-B, Issue SUPP_IV | Pages 599 - 600
1 Oct 2010
Sultan J Hakimi M Hughes P
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Background: Distinguishing septic arthritis from transient synovitis of the hip in children can be both crucial and challenging. In 1999, Kocher et al suggested four clinical predictors, fever > 38.5°C, inability to weight bear, WBC count > 12.0x109/L, and ESR> 40mm/hr; that, when combined were highly predictive of septic arthritis in children (99.6%). This figure was challenged by Luhmann et al, stating that the clinical prediction did not exceed 59%. In 2006, Caird et al recommended adding CRP of > 20mg/L as a fifth predictor. Aims: To assess the value and accuracy of clinical prediction algorithms in distinguishing septic arthritis from transient synovitis of the hip in children in our hospital. Methods: A retrospective review of all children admitted to our institution with painful hips was carried out over a period of four years (Feb 2003 to Mar 2007). One-hundred and twenty-two admissions (115 patients, 7 re-admissions) were reviewed. Results: 79 patients (64.8%) were males. The mean age was 6 years (9 months to 15 years). 86 patients (70.5%) were diagnosed with transient synovitis. All the 7 re-admissions were from this group. Only one of the re-admissions was diagnosed with confirmed septic arthritis. 4 patients (3.3%) were diagnosed with definite septic arthritis with positive cultures from the hip, and 1 (0.8%) with probable septic arthritis (negative culture). The presence of the clinical predictors was compared between the transient synovitis and septic arthritis groups, using Fisher’s exact test. Only the raised temperature and CRP were found to be significantly different (p< 0.05). Only two children (40%) with confirmed septic arthritis had four or more predictors (one had all five, and the other was able to partially weight bear). The third child had a raised temperature and CRP, and the fourth had a raised temperature only. The fifth patient (20%) was diagnosed with probable septic arthritis. His cultures were negative, but he was already on intravenous antibiotics. This patient did not have any of the predictors on admission (temperature was 38.3°C, CRP 10.7). However, he spiked a temperature of 40°C 24 hours post admission despite being on antibiotics, and his CRP increased to 34.5mg/L. In the transient synovitis group, two patients (2.2%) had positive five predictors, but were proven to have transient synovitis secondary to a urinary tract infection and gastroenteritis. 47 patients (51.6%) did not have any of the predictors, and 6 patients (6.6%) had three or more positive predictors. Conclusion: Although clinical predictors are helpful in distinguishing septic arthritis from transient synovitis, there were false negative and false positive findings in the study. The predictors cannot be considered alone, and ultimately clinical judgement must be exercised to ensure that cases of septic arthritis are not missed


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 94-B, Issue SUPP_XXXIX | Pages 157 - 157
1 Sep 2012
Singhal R Perry D Khan F Cohen D Stevenson H James L Sampath J Bruce C
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Background. Establishing the diagnosis in a child presenting with an atraumatic limp can be difficult. Clinical prediction algorithms have been devised to distinguish septic arthritis (SA) from transient synovitis (TS). Within Europe measurement of the Erythrocyte Sedimentation Rate (ESR) has largely been replaced with assessment of C-Reactive Protein (CRP) as an acute phase protein. We produce a prediction algorithm to determine the significance of CRP in distinguishing between TS and SA. Method. All children with a presentation of ‘atraumatic limp’ and a proven effusion on hip ultrasound between 2004 and 2009 were included. Patient demographics, details of the clinical presentation and laboratory investigations were documented to identify a response to each of the four variables (Weight bearing status, WCC >12,000 cells/m3, CRP >20mg/L and Temperature >38.5°C). SA was defined based upon culture and microscopy of the operative findings. Results. 311 hips were included within the study. Of these 282 were considered to have transient synovitis. 29 patients met criteria to be classified as SA based upon laboratory assessment of the synovial fluid. The introduction of CRP eliminated the need for a four variable model as the use of two variables (CRP and weight bearing status) had similar efficacy. Treating individuals who were non-weight-bearing and a CRP >20mg/L as SA correctly classified 94.8% individuals, with a sensitivity of 75.9%, specificity of 96.8%, positive predictive value of 71.0%, and negative predictive value of 97.5%. CRP was a significant independent predictor of septic arthritis. Conclusions. CRP was a strong independent risk factor of septic arthritis, and its inclusion within a regression model simplifies the diagnostic algorithm. Nevertheless, this and other models are generally more reliable in excluding SA, than confirming SA, and therefore a clinician's acumen remains important in identifying SA in those individuals with a single abnormal variable


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 99-B, Issue 2 | Pages 211 - 217
1 Feb 2017
Sluis GVD Goldbohm RA Elings JE Sanden MWND Akkermans RP Bimmel R Hoogeboom TJ Meeteren NLV

Aims

To investigate whether pre-operative functional mobility is a determinant of delayed inpatient recovery of activities (IRoA) after total knee arthroplasty (TKA) in three periods that coincided with changes in the clinical pathway.

Patients and Methods

All patients (n = 682, 73% women, mean age 70 years, standard deviation 9) scheduled for TKA between 2009 and 2015 were pre-operatively screened for functional mobility by the Timed-up-and-Go test (TUG) and De Morton mobility index (DEMMI). The cut-off point for delayed IRoA was set on the day that 70% of the patients were recovered, according to the Modified Iowa Levels of Assistance Scale (mILAS) (a 5-item activity scale). In a multivariable logistic regression analysis, we added either the TUG or the DEMMI to a reference model including established determinants.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 3 | Pages 227 - 229
1 Mar 2023
Theologis T Brady MA Hartshorn S Faust SN Offiah AC

Acute bone and joint infections in children are serious, and misdiagnosis can threaten limb and life. Most young children who present acutely with pain, limping, and/or loss of function have transient synovitis, which will resolve spontaneously within a few days. A minority will have a bone or joint infection. Clinicians are faced with a diagnostic challenge: children with transient synovitis can safely be sent home, but children with bone and joint infection require urgent treatment to avoid complications. Clinicians often respond to this challenge by using a series of rudimentary decision support tools, based on clinical, haematological, and biochemical parameters, to differentiate childhood osteoarticular infection from other diagnoses. However, these tools were developed without methodological expertise in diagnostic accuracy and do not consider the importance of imaging (ultrasound scan and MRI). There is wide variation in clinical practice with regard to the indications, choice, sequence, and timing of imaging. This variation is most likely due to the lack of evidence concerning the role of imaging in acute bone and joint infection in children. We describe the first steps of a large UK multicentre study, funded by the National Institute for Health Research, which seeks to integrate definitively the role of imaging into a decision support tool, developed with the assistance of individuals with expertise in the development of clinical prediction tools. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(3):227–229


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 10 | Pages 1111 - 1117
1 Oct 2024
Makaram NS Becher H Oag E Heinz NR McCann CJ Mackenzie SP Robinson CM

Aims. The risk factors for recurrent instability (RI) following a primary traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation (PTASD) remain unclear. In this study, we aimed to determine the rate of RI in a large cohort of patients managed nonoperatively after PTASD and to develop a clinical prediction model. Methods. A total of 1,293 patients with PTASD managed nonoperatively were identified from a trauma database (mean age 23.3 years (15 to 35); 14.3% female). We assessed the prevalence of RI, and used multivariate regression modelling to evaluate which demographic- and injury-related factors were independently predictive for its occurrence. Results. The overall rate of RI at a mean follow-up of 34.4 months (SD 47.0) was 62.8% (n = 812), with 81.0% (n = 658) experiencing their first recurrence within two years of PTASD. The median time for recurrence was 9.8 months (IQR 3.9 to 19.4). Independent predictors increasing risk of RI included male sex (p < 0.001), younger age at PTASD (p < 0.001), participation in contact sport (p < 0.001), and the presence of a bony Bankart (BB) lesion (p = 0.028). Greater tuberosity fracture (GTF) was protective (p < 0.001). However, the discriminative ability of the resulting predictive model for two-year risk of RI was poor (area under the curve (AUC) 0.672). A subset analysis excluding identifiable radiological predictors of BB and GTF worsened the predictive ability (AUC 0.646). Conclusion. This study clarifies the prevalence and risk factors for RI following PTASD in a large, unselected patient cohort. Although these data permitted the development of a predictive tool for RI, its discriminative ability was poor. Predicting RI remains challenging, and as-yet-undetermined risk factors may be important in determining the risk. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(10):1111–1117


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 104-B, Issue SUPP_10 | Pages 60 - 60
1 Oct 2022
Dudareva M Corrigan R Hotchen A Muir R Sattar A Scarborough C Kumin M Atkins B Scarborough M McNally M Collins G
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Aim. Recurrence of bone and joint infection, despite appropriate therapy, is well recognised and stimulates ongoing interest in identifying host factors that predict infection recurrence. Clinical prediction models exist for those treated with DAIR, but to date no models with a low risk of bias predict orthopaedic infection recurrence for people with surgically excised infection and removed metalwork. The aims of this study were to construct and internally validate a risk prediction model for infection recurrence at 12 months, and to identify factors that predict recurrence. Predictive factors must be easy to check in pre-operative assessment and relevant across patient groups. Methods. Four prospectively collected datasets including 1173 participants treated in European centres between 2003 and 2021, followed up to 12 months after surgery for orthopaedic infections, were included in logistic regression modelling [1–3]. The definition of infection recurrence was identical and ascertained separately from baseline factors in three contributing cohorts. Eight predictive factors were investigated following a priori sample size calculation: age, gender, BMI, ASA score, the number of prior operations, immunosuppressive medication, glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), and smoking. Missing data, including systematically missing predictors, were imputed using Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations. Weekly alcohol intake was not included in modelling due to low inter-observer reliability (mean reported intake 12 units per week, 95% CI for mean inter-rater error −16.0 to +15.4 units per week). Results. Participants were 64% male, with a median age of 60 years (range 18–95). 86% of participants had lower limb orthopaedic infections. 732 participants were treated for osteomyelitis, including FRI, and 432 for PJI. 16% of participants experienced treatment failure by 12 months. The full prediction model had moderate apparent discrimination: AUROC (C statistic) 0.67, Brier score 0.13, and reasonable apparent calibration. Of the predictors of interest, associations with failure were seen with prior operations at the same anatomical site (odds ratio for failure 1.51 for each additional prior surgery; 95% CI 1.02 to 2.22, p=0.06), and the current use of immunosuppressive medications (odds ratio for failure 2.94; 95% CI 0.89 to 9.77, p=0.08). Conclusions. This association between number of prior surgeries and treatment failure supports the urgent need to streamline referral pathways for people with orthopaedic infection to specialist multidisciplinary units


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 102-B, Issue SUPP_8 | Pages 12 - 12
1 Aug 2020
Melo L White S Chaudhry H Stavrakis A Wolfstadt J Ward S Atrey A Khoshbin A Nowak L
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Over 300,000 total hip arthroplasties (THA) are performed annually in the USA. Surgical Site Infections (SSI) are one of the most common complications and are associated with increased morbidity, mortality and cost. Risk factors for SSI include obesity, diabetes and smoking, but few studies have reported on the predictive value of pre-operative blood markers for SSI. The purpose of this study was to create a clinical prediction model for acute SSI (classified as either superficial, deep and overall) within 30 days of THA based on commonly ordered pre-operative lab markers and using data from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database. All adult patients undergoing an elective unilateral THA for osteoarthritis from 2011–2016 were identified from the NSQIP database using Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes. Patients with active or chronic, local or systemic infection/sepsis or disseminated cancer were excluded. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine coefficients, with manual stepwise reduction. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were also graphed. The SSI prediction model included the following covariates: body mass index (BMI) and sex, comorbidities such as congestive heart failure (CHF), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), smoking, current/previous steroid use, as well as pre-operative blood markers, albumin, alkaline phosphate, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), creatinine, hematocrit, international normalized ratio (INR), platelets, prothrombin time (PT), sodium and white blood cell (WBC) levels. Since the data met logistic assumption requirements, bootstrap estimation was used to measure internal validity. The area under the ROC curve for final derivations along with McFadden's R-squared were utilized to compare prediction models. A total of 130,619 patients were included with the median age of patients at time of THA was 67 years (mean=66.6+11.6 years) with 44.8% (n=58,757) being male. A total of 1,561 (1.20%) patients had a superficial or deep SSI (overall SSI). Of all SSI, 45.1% (n=704) had a deep SSI and 55.4% (n=865) had a superficial SSI. The incidence of SSI occurring annually decreased from 1.44% in 2011 to 1.16% in 2016. Area under the ROC curve for the SSI prediction model was 0.79 and 0.78 for deep and superficial SSI, respectively and 0.71 for overall SSI. CHF had the largest effect size (Odds Ratio(OR)=2.88, 95% Confidence Interval (95%CI): 1.56 – 5.32) for overall SSI risk. Albumin (OR=0.44, 95% CI: 0.37 – 0.52, OR=0.31, 95% CI: 0.25 – 0.39, OR=0.48, 95% CI: 0.41 – 0.58) and sodium (OR=0.95, 95% CI: 0.93 – 0.97, OR=0.94, 95% CI: 0.91 – 0.97, OR=0.95, 95% CI: 0.93 – 0.98) levels were consistently significant in all clinical prediction models for superficial, deep and overall SSI, respectively. In terms of pre-operative blood markers, hypoalbuminemia and hyponatremia are both significant risk factors for superficial, deep and overall SSI. In this large NSQIP database study, we were able to create an SSI prediction model and identify risk factors for predicting acute superficial, deep and overall SSI after THA. To our knowledge, this is the first clinical model whereby pre-operative hyponatremia (in addition to hypoalbuminemia) levels have been predictive of SSI after THA. Although the model remains without external validation, it is a vital starting point for developing a risk prediction model for SSI and can help physicians mitigate risk factors for acute SSI post THA


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 94-B, Issue 7 | Pages 961 - 968
1 Jul 2012
Duckworth AD Buijze GA Moran M Gray A Court-Brown CM Ring D McQueen MM

A prospective study was performed to develop a clinical prediction rule that incorporated demographic and clinical factors predictive of a fracture of the scaphoid. Of 260 consecutive patients with a clinically suspected or radiologically confirmed scaphoid fracture, 223 returned for evaluation two weeks after injury and formed the basis of our analysis. Patients were evaluated within 72 hours of injury and at approximately two and six weeks after injury using clinical assessment and standard radiographs. Demographic data and the results of seven specific tests in the clinical examination were recorded. There were 116 (52%) men and their mean age was 33 years (13 to 95; . sd. 17.9). In 62 patients (28%) a scaphoid fracture was confirmed. A logistic regression model identified male gender (p = 0.002), sports injury (p = 0.004), anatomical snuff box pain on ulnar deviation of the wrist within 72 hours of injury (p < 0.001), and scaphoid tubercle tenderness at two weeks (p < 0.001) as independent predictors of fracture. All patients with no pain at the anatomical snuff box on ulnar deviation of the wrist within 72 hours of injury did not have a fracture (n = 72, 32%). With four independently significant factors positive, the risk of fracture was 91%. Our study has demonstrated that clinical prediction rules have a considerable influence on the probability of a suspected scaphoid fracture. This will help improve the use of supplementary investigations where the diagnosis remains in doubt


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 94-B, Issue SUPP_XXXVI | Pages 11 - 11
1 Aug 2012
Singhal R Perry D Khan F Cohen D Stevenson H James L Sampath J Bruce C
Full Access

Background. Establishing the diagnosis in a child presenting with an atraumatic limp can be challenging. There is particular difficulty distinguishing septic arthritis (SA) from transient synovitis (TS) and consequently clinical prediction algorithms have been devised to differentiate the conditions using the presence of fever, raised erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), raised white cell count (WCC) and inability to weight bear. Within Europe measurement of the ESR has largely been replaced with assessment of C-reactive protein (CRP) as an acute phase protein. We have evaluated the utility of including CRP in a clinical prediction algorithm to distinguish TS from SA. Method. All children with a presentation of ‘atraumatic limp’ and a proven effusion on hip ultrasound between 2004 and 2009 were included. Patient demographics, details of the clinical presentation and laboratory investigations were documented to identify a response to each of four variables (Weight bearing status, WCC >12,000 cells/m3, CRP >20mg/L and Temperature >38.5 degrees C. The definition of SA was based upon microscopy and culture of the joint fluid collected at arthrotomy. Results. 311 hips were included within the study. Of these 282 were considered to have transient synovitis. 29 patients met criteria to be classified as SA based upon laboratory assessment of the synovial fluid. The introduction of CRP eliminated the need for a four variable model as the use of two variables (CRP and weight bearing status) had similar efficacy. An algorithm that indicated a diagnosis of SA in individuals who could not weight-bear and who had a CRP >20mg/L correctly classified SA in 94.8% individuals, with a sensitivity of 75.9%, specificity of 96.8%, positive predictive value of 71.0%, and negative predictive value of 97.5%. CRP was a significant independent predictor of septic arthritis. Conclusions. CRP was a strong independent risk factor of septic arthritis, and its inclusion within a regression model simplifies the diagnostic algorithm, such that a two-variable model correctly classified 95% individuals with SA. Nevertheless, this and similar algorithms are generally more reliable in excluding SA, than confirming SA, and therefore a clinician's acumen remains important in identifying SA in those individuals with a single abnormal variable


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 3 | Pages 168 - 181
14 Mar 2023
Dijkstra H Oosterhoff JHF van de Kuit A IJpma FFA Schwab JH Poolman RW Sprague S Bzovsky S Bhandari M Swiontkowski M Schemitsch EH Doornberg JN Hendrickx LAM

Aims

To develop prediction models using machine-learning (ML) algorithms for 90-day and one-year mortality prediction in femoral neck fracture (FNF) patients aged 50 years or older based on the Hip fracture Evaluation with Alternatives of Total Hip arthroplasty versus Hemiarthroplasty (HEALTH) and Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trials.

Methods

This study included 2,388 patients from the HEALTH and FAITH trials, with 90-day and one-year mortality proportions of 3.0% (71/2,388) and 6.4% (153/2,388), respectively. The mean age was 75.9 years (SD 10.8) and 65.9% of patients (1,574/2,388) were female. The algorithms included patient and injury characteristics. Six algorithms were developed, internally validated and evaluated across discrimination (c-statistic; discriminative ability between those with risk of mortality and those without), calibration (observed outcome compared to the predicted probability), and the Brier score (composite of discrimination and calibration).


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 93-B, Issue 6 | Pages 713 - 719
1 Jun 2011
Duckworth AD Ring D McQueen MM

A suspected fracture of the scaphoid remains difficult to manage despite advances in knowledge and imaging methods. Immobilisation and restriction of activities in a young and active patient must be balanced against the risks of nonunion associated with an undiagnosed and undertreated fracture of the scaphoid. The assessment of diagnostic tests for a suspected fracture of the scaphoid must take into account two important factors. First, the prevalence of true fractures among suspected fractures is low, which greatly reduces the probability that a positive test will correspond with a true fracture, as false positives are nearly as common as true positives. This situation is accounted for by Bayesian statistics. Secondly, there is no agreed reference standard for a true fracture, which necessitates the need for an alternative method of calculating diagnostic performance characteristics, based upon a statistical method which identifies clinical factors tending to associate (latent classes) in patients with a high probability of fracture. The most successful diagnostic test to date is MRI, but in low-prevalence situations the positive predictive value of MRI is only 88%, and new data have documented the potential for false positive scans. The best strategy for improving the diagnosis of true fractures among suspected fractures of the scaphoid may well be to develop a clinical prediction rule incorporating a set of demographic and clinical factors which together increase the pre-test probability of a fracture of the scaphoid, in addition to developing increasingly sophisticated radiological tests


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 4 | Pages 312 - 316
17 Apr 2024
Ryan PJ Duckworth AD McEachan JE Jenkins PJ

Aims

The underlying natural history of suspected scaphoid fractures (SSFs) is unclear and assumed poor. There is an urgent requirement to develop the literature around SSFs to quantify the actual prevalence of intervention following SSF. Defining the risk of intervention following SSF may influence the need for widespread surveillance and screening of SSF injuries, and could influence medicolegal actions around missed scaphoid fractures.

Methods

Data on SSF were retrospectively gathered from virtual fracture clinics (VFCs) across a large Scottish Health Board over a four-year period, from 1 January 2018 to 31 December 2021. The Bluespier Electronic Patient Record System identified any surgical procedure being undertaken in relation to a scaphoid injury over the same time period. Isolating patients who underwent surgical intervention for SSF was performed by cross-referencing the unique patient Community Health Index number for patients who underwent these scaphoid procedures with those seen at VFCs for SSF over this four-year period.


Bone & Joint Research
Vol. 13, Issue 9 | Pages 507 - 512
18 Sep 2024
Farrow L Meek D Leontidis G Campbell M Harrison E Anderson L

Despite the vast quantities of published artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms that target trauma and orthopaedic applications, very few progress to inform clinical practice. One key reason for this is the lack of a clear pathway from development to deployment. In order to assist with this process, we have developed the Clinical Practice Integration of Artificial Intelligence (CPI-AI) framework – a five-stage approach to the clinical practice adoption of AI in the setting of trauma and orthopaedics, based on the IDEAL principles (https://www.ideal-collaboration.net/). Adherence to the framework would provide a robust evidence-based mechanism for developing trust in AI applications, where the underlying algorithms are unlikely to be fully understood by clinical teams.

Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(9):507–512.


Bone & Joint 360
Vol. 12, Issue 5 | Pages 15 - 18
1 Oct 2023

The October 2023 Hip & Pelvis Roundup360 looks at: Femoroacetabular impingement syndrome at ten years – how do athletes do?; Venous thromboembolism in patients following total joint replacement: are transfusions to blame?; What changes in pelvic sagittal tilt occur 20 years after total hip arthroplasty?; Can stratified care in hip arthroscopy predict successful and unsuccessful outcomes?; Hip replacement into your nineties; Can large language models help with follow-up?; The most taxing of revisions – proximal femoral replacement for periprosthetic joint infection – what’s the benefit of dual mobility?


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 6 | Pages 709 - 714
1 Jun 2022
Stirling PHC Simpson CJ Ring D Duckworth AD McEachan JE

Aims

The aim of this study was to describe the introduction of a virtual pathway for the management of patients with a suspected fracture of the scaphoid, and to report patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) and satisfaction following treatment using this service.

Methods

All adult patients who presented with a clinically suspected scaphoid fracture that was not visible on radiographs at the time of presentation during a one-year period were eligible for inclusion in the pathway. Demographic details, findings on examination, and routine four-view radiographs at the time of presentation were collected. All radiographs were reviewed virtually by a single consultant hand surgeon, with patient-initiated follow-up on request. PROMs were assessed at a minimum of one year after presentation and included the abbreviated version of the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand Score (QuickDASH), the EuroQol five-dimension five-level health questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L), the Net Promoter Score (NPS), and return to work.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 7 | Pages 688 - 695
1 Jul 2024
Farrow L Zhong M Anderson L

Aims

To examine whether natural language processing (NLP) using a clinically based large language model (LLM) could be used to predict patient selection for total hip or total knee arthroplasty (THA/TKA) from routinely available free-text radiology reports.

Methods

Data pre-processing and analyses were conducted according to the Artificial intelligence to Revolutionize the patient Care pathway in Hip and knEe aRthroplastY (ARCHERY) project protocol. This included use of de-identified Scottish regional clinical data of patients referred for consideration of THA/TKA, held in a secure data environment designed for artificial intelligence (AI) inference. Only preoperative radiology reports were included. NLP algorithms were based on the freely available GatorTron model, a LLM trained on over 82 billion words of de-identified clinical text. Two inference tasks were performed: assessment after model-fine tuning (50 Epochs and three cycles of k-fold cross validation), and external validation.