Aims. Successful cell therapy in hip osteonecrosis (ON) may help to avoid ON progression or total hip arthroplasty (THA), but the achieved bone regeneration is unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate amount and location of bone regeneration obtained after surgical injection of expanded autologous mesenchymal stromal cells from the bone marrow (BM-hMSCs). Methods. A total of 20 patients with small and medium-size symptomatic stage II femoral head ON treated with 140 million BM-hMSCs through percutaneous forage in the EudraCT 2012-002010-39 clinical trial were retrospectively evaluated through preoperative and postoperative (three and 12 months) MRI. Then, 3D reconstruction of the original lesion and the observed postoperative residual damage after bone regeneration were analyzed and compared per group based on treatment efficacy. Results. The mean preoperative lesion volume was 18.7% (SD 10.2%) of the femoral head. This reduced to 11.6% (SD 7.5%) after three months (p = 0.015) and 3.7% (SD 3%) after one year (p < 0.001). Bone regeneration in healed cases represented a mean 81.2% (SD 13.8%) of the initial lesion volume at one year. Non-healed cases (n = 1 stage progression; n = 3 THAs) still showed bone regeneration but this did not effectively decrease the ON volume. A lesion size under mean 10% (SD 6%) of the femoral head at three months predicted no ON stage progression at one year. Regeneration in the lateral femoral head (C2 under Japanese Investigation Committee (JCI) classification) and in the central and posterior regions of the head was predominant in cases without ON progression. Conclusion. Bone regeneration was observed in osteonecrotic femoral heads three months after expanded autologous BM-hMSC injection, and the volume and location of regeneration indicated the success of the therapy. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2022;11(12):881–889

The February 2023 Trauma Roundup. 360. looks at: Masquelet versus bone transport in infected nonunion of tibia; Hyperbaric Oxygen for Lower Limb Trauma (HOLLT): an international multicentre randomized clinical trial; Is the T-shaped acetabular fracture really a “T”?; What causes cut-out of proximal femur nail anti-rotation device in intertrochanteric fractures?; Is the common femoral artery at risk with percutaneous fragility pelvis fixation?; Anterior pelvic ring pattern predicts displacement in lateral compression fractures; Differences in age-related characteristics among elderly patients with hip fractures

The December 2023 Shoulder & Elbow Roundup. 360. looks at: Clavicle fractures: is the evidence changing practice?; Humeral shaft fractures, and another meta-analysis…let’s wait for the trials now!; Hemiarthroplasty or total elbow arthroplasty for distal humeral fractures…what does the registry say?; What to do with a first-time shoulder dislocation?; Deprivation indices and minimal clinically important difference for patient-reported outcomes after arthroscopic rotator cuff repair; Prospective randomized clinical trial of arthroscopic repair versus debridement for partial subscapularis tears; Long-term follow-up following closed reduction and early movement for simple dislocation of the elbow; Sternoclavicular joint reconstruction for traumatic acute and chronic anterior and posterior instability

Aims. A national screening programme has existed in the UK for the diagnosis of developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) since 1969. However, every aspect of screening and treatment remains controversial. Screening programmes throughout the world vary enormously, and in the UK there is significant variation in screening practice and treatment pathways. We report the results of an attempt by the British Society for Children’s Orthopaedic Surgery (BSCOS) to identify a nationwide consensus for the management of DDH in order to unify treatment and suggest an approach for screening. Methods. A Delphi consensus study was performed among the membership of BSCOS. Statements were generated by a steering group regarding aspects of the management of DDH in children aged under three months, namely screening and surveillance (15 questions), the technique of ultrasound scanning (eight questions), the initiation of treatment (19 questions), care during treatment with a splint (ten questions), and on quality, governance, and research (eight questions). A two-round Delphi process was used and a consensus document was produced at the final meeting of the steering group. Results. A total of 60 statements were graded by 128 clinicians in the first round and 132 in the second round. Consensus was reached on 30 out of 60 statements in the first round and an additional 12 in the seond. This was summarized in a consensus statement and distilled into a flowchart to guide clinical practice. Conclusion. We identified agreement in an area of medicine that has a long history of controversy and varied practice. None of the areas of consensus are based on high-quality evidence. This document is thus a framework to guide clinical practice and on which high-quality clinical trials can be developed. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(2):209–214

Aims. The optimal management of posterior malleolar ankle fractures, a prevalent type of ankle trauma, is essential for improved prognosis. However, there remains a debate over the most effective surgical approach, particularly between screw and plate fixation methods. This study aims to investigate the differences in outcomes associated with these fixation techniques. Methods. We conducted a comprehensive review of clinical trials comparing anteroposterior (A-P) screws, posteroanterior (P-A) screws, and plate fixation. Two investigators validated the data sourced from multiple databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science). Following PRISMA guidelines, we carried out a network meta-analysis (NMA) using visual analogue scale and American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Score (AOFAS) as primary outcomes. Secondary outcomes included range of motion limitations, radiological outcomes, and complication rates. Results. The NMA encompassed 13 studies, consisting of four randomized trials and eight retrospective ones. According to the surface under the cumulative ranking curve-based ranking, the A-P screw was ranked highest for improvements in AOFAS and exhibited lowest in infection and peroneal nerve injury incidence. The P-A screws, on the other hand, excelled in terms of VAS score improvements. Conversely, posterior buttress plate fixation showed the least incidence of osteoarthritis grade progression, postoperative articular step-off ≥ 2 mm, nonunions, and loss of ankle dorsiflexion ≥ 5°, though it underperformed in most other clinical outcomes. Conclusion. The NMA suggests that open plating is more likely to provide better radiological outcomes, while screw fixation may have a greater potential for superior functional and pain results. Nevertheless, clinicians should still consider the fragment size and fracture pattern, weighing the advantages of rigid biomechanical fixation against the possibility of soft-tissue damage, to optimize treatment results. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(3):227–235

Aims. The primary aim of this study was to report the radiological outcomes of patients with a dorsally displaced distal radius fracture who were randomized to a moulded cast or surgical fixation with wires following manipulation and closed reduction of their fracture. The secondary aim was to correlate radiological outcomes with patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) in the year following injury. Methods. Participants were recruited as part of DRAFFT2, a UK multicentre clinical trial. Participants were aged 16 years or over with a dorsally displaced distal radius fracture, and were eligible for the trial if they needed a manipulation of their fracture, as recommended by their treating surgeon. Participants were randomly allocated on a 1:1 ratio to moulded cast or Kirschner wires after manipulation of the fracture in the operating theatre. Standard posteroanterior and lateral radiographs were performed in the radiology department of participating centres at the time of the patient’s initial assessment in the emergency department and six weeks postoperatively. Intraoperative fluoroscopic images taken at the time of fracture reduction were also assessed. Results. Patients treated with surgical fixation with wires had less dorsal angulation of the radius versus those treated in a moulded cast at six weeks after manipulation of the fracture; the mean difference of -4.13° was statistically significant (95% confidence interval 5.82 to -2.45). There was no evidence of a difference in radial shortening. However, there was no correlation between these radiological measurements and PROMs at any timepoint in the 12 months post-injury. Conclusion. For patients with a dorsally displaced distal radius fracture treated with a closed manipulation, surgical fixation with wires leads to less dorsal angulation on radiographs at six weeks compared with patients treated in a moulded plaster cast alone. However, the difference in dorsal angulation was small and did not correlate with patient-reported pain and function. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(2):132–138

Aims. Machine learning (ML), a branch of artificial intelligence that uses algorithms to learn from data and make predictions, offers a pathway towards more personalized and tailored surgical treatments. This approach is particularly relevant to prevalent joint diseases such as osteoarthritis (OA). In contrast to end-stage disease, where joint arthroplasty provides excellent results, early stages of OA currently lack effective therapies to halt or reverse progression. Accurate prediction of OA progression is crucial if timely interventions are to be developed, to enhance patient care and optimize the design of clinical trials. Methods. A systematic review was conducted in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on 5 May 2024 for studies utilizing ML to predict OA progression. Titles and abstracts were independently screened, followed by full-text reviews for studies that met the eligibility criteria. Key information was extracted and synthesized for analysis, including types of data (such as clinical, radiological, or biochemical), definitions of OA progression, ML algorithms, validation methods, and outcome measures. Results. Out of 1,160 studies initially identified, 39 were included. Most studies (85%) were published between 2020 and 2024, with 82% using publicly available datasets, primarily the Osteoarthritis Initiative. ML methods were predominantly supervised, with significant variability in the definitions of OA progression: most studies focused on structural changes (59%), while fewer addressed pain progression or both. Deep learning was used in 44% of studies, while automated ML was used in 5%. There was a lack of standardization in evaluation metrics and limited external validation. Interpretability was explored in 54% of studies, primarily using SHapley Additive exPlanations. Conclusion. Our systematic review demonstrates the feasibility of ML models in predicting OA progression, but also uncovers critical limitations that currently restrict their clinical applicability. Future priorities should include diversifying data sources, standardizing outcome measures, enforcing rigorous validation, and integrating more sophisticated algorithms. This paradigm shift from predictive modelling to actionable clinical tools has the potential to transform patient care and disease management in orthopaedic practice. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(11):1216–1222

Aims. Open lower limb fracture is a life-changing injury affecting 11.5 per 100,000 adults each year, and causes significant morbidity and resource demand on trauma infrastructures. This study aims to identify what, and how, outcomes have been reported for people following open lower limb fracture over ten years. Methods. Systematic literature searches identified all clinical studies reporting outcomes for adults following open lower limb fracture between January 2009 and July 2019. All outcomes and outcome measurement instruments were extracted verbatim. An iterative process was used to group outcome terms under standardized outcome headings categorized using an outcome taxonomy. Results. A total of 532 eligible studies were identified, reporting 1,803 outcomes with 786 unique outcome terms, which collapsed to 82 standardized outcome headings. Overall 479 individual outcome measurement instruments were identified, including 298 outcome definitions, 27 patient- and 18 clinician-reported outcome measures, and six physical performance measures. The most-reported outcome was ‘bone union/healing’ reported in over 50% of included studies, while health-related quality of life was only measured in 6% of included studies. Conclusion. Outcomes reported for people recovering from open lower limb fracture are heterogeneous, liable to outcome reporting bias, and vary widely in the definitions and the measurement tools used to collect them. Outcomes likely to be important to patients, such as quality of life and measures of physical functioning, have been neglected. This systematic review identifies the need to unify outcome measures reported on patients recovering from open lower limb fracture; this may be addressed by creating a core outcome set. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(2):138–146

Aims. Our objective was to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis, to establish whether differences arise in clinical outcomes between autologous and synthetic bone grafts in the operative management of tibial plateau fractures. Methods. A structured search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, the online archives of Bone & Joint Publishing, and CENTRAL databases from inception until 28 July 2021 was performed. Randomized, controlled, clinical trials that compared autologous and synthetic bone grafts in tibial plateau fractures were included. Preclinical studies, clinical studies in paediatric patients, pathological fractures, fracture nonunion, or chondral defects were excluded. Outcome data were assessed using the Risk of Bias 2 (ROB2) framework and synthesized in random-effect meta-analysis. The Preferred Reported Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses guidance was followed throughout. Results. Six studies involving 353 fractures were identified from 3,078 records. Following ROB2 assessment, five studies (representing 338 fractures) were appropriate for meta-analysis. Primary outcomes showed non-significant reductions in articular depression at immediate postoperative (mean difference -0.45 mm, p = 0.25, 95%confidence interval (CI) -1.21 to 0.31, I. 2. = 0%) and long-term (> six months, standard mean difference -0.56, p = 0.09, 95% CI -1.20 to 0.08, I. 2. = 73%) follow-up in synthetic bone grafts. Secondary outcomes included mechanical alignment, limb functionality, and defect site pain at long-term follow-up, perioperative blood loss, duration of surgery, occurrence of surgical site infections, and secondary surgery. Mean blood loss was lower (90.08 ml, p < 0.001, 95% CI 41.49 to 138.67) and surgery was shorter (16.17 minutes, p = 0.04, 95% CI 0.39 to 31.94) in synthetic treatment groups. All other secondary measures were statistically comparable. Conclusion. All studies reported similar methodologies and patient populations; however, imprecision may have arisen through performance variation. These findings supersede previous literature and indicate that, despite perceived biological advantages, autologous bone grafting does not demonstrate superiority to synthetic grafts. When selecting a void filler, surgeons should consider patient comorbidity, environmental and societal factors in provision, and perioperative and postoperative care provision. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(3):218–228

Aims. Ankle fracture is one of the most common musculoskeletal injuries sustained in the UK. Many patients experience pain and physical impairment, with the consequences of the fracture and its management lasting for several months or even years. The broad aim of ankle fracture treatment is to maintain the alignment of the joint while the fracture heals, and to reduce the risks of problems, such as stiffness. More severe injuries to the ankle are routinely treated surgically. However, even with advances in surgery, there remains a risk of complications; for patients experiencing these, the associated loss of function and quality of life (Qol) is considerable. Non-surgical treatment is an alternative to surgery and involves applying a cast carefully shaped to the patient’s ankle to correct and maintain alignment of the joint with the key benefit being a reduction in the frequency of common complications of surgery. The main potential risk of non-surgical treatment is a loss of alignment with a consequent reduction in ankle function. This study aims to determine whether ankle function, four months after treatment, in patients with unstable ankle fractures treated with close contact casting is not worse than in those treated with surgical intervention, which is the current standard of care. Methods. This trial is a pragmatic, multicentre, randomized non-inferiority clinical trial with an embedded pilot, and with 12 months clinical follow-up and parallel economic analysis. A surveillance study using routinely collected data will be performed annually to five years post-treatment. Adult patients, aged 60 years and younger, with unstable ankle fractures will be identified in daily trauma meetings and fracture clinics and approached for recruitment prior to their treatment. Treatments will be performed in trauma units across the UK by a wide range of surgeons. Details of the surgical treatment, including how the operation is done, implant choice, and the recovery programme afterwards, will be at the discretion of the treating surgeon. The non-surgical treatment will be close-contact casting performed under anaesthetic, a technique which has gained in popularity since the publication of the Ankle Injury Management (AIM) trial. In all, 890 participants (445 per group) will be randomly allocated to surgical or non-surgical treatment. Data regarding ankle function, QoL, complications, and healthcare-related costs will be collected at eight weeks, four and 12 months, and then annually for five years following treatment. The primary outcome measure is patient-reported ankle function at four months from treatment. Anticipated impact. The 12-month results will be presented and published internationally. This is anticipated to be the only pragmatic trial reporting outcomes comparing surgical with non-surgical treatment in unstable ankle fractures in younger adults (aged 60 years and younger), and, as such, will inform the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) ‘non-complex fracture’ recommendations at their scheduled update in 2024. A report of long-term outcomes at five years will be produced by January 2027. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(3):184–201

Aims. Hand trauma accounts for one in five of emergency department attendances, with a UK incidence of over five million injuries/year and 250,000 operations/year. Surgical site infection (SSI) in hand trauma surgery leads to further interventions, poor outcomes, and prolonged recovery, but has been poorly researched. Antimicrobial sutures have been recognized by both the World Health Organization and the National Institute for Clinical Excellence as potentially effective for reducing SSI. They have never been studied in hand trauma surgery: a completely different patient group and clinical pathway to previous randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of these sutures. Antimicrobial sutures are expensive, and further research in hand trauma is warranted before they become standard of care. The aim of this protocol is to conduct a feasibility study of antimicrobial sutures in patients undergoing hand trauma surgery to establish acceptability, compliance, and retention for a definitive trial. Methods. A two-arm, multicentre feasibility RCT of 116 adult participants with hand and wrist injuries, randomized to either antimicrobial sutures or standard sutures. Study participants and outcome assessors will be blinded to treatment allocation. Outcome measures will be recorded at baseline (preoperatively), 30 days, 90 days, and six months, and will include SSI, patient-reported outcome measures, and return to work. Conclusion. This will inform a definitive trial of antimicrobial sutures in the hand and wrist, and will help to inform future upper limb trauma trials. The results of this research will be shared with the medical community through high impact publication and presentation. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(7):529–535

The February 2023 Shoulder & Elbow Roundup. 360. looks at: Arthroscopic capsular release or manipulation under anaesthesia for frozen shoulder?; Distal biceps repair through a single incision?; Distal biceps tendon ruptures: diagnostic strategy through physical examination; Postoperative multimodal opioid-sparing protocol vs standard opioid prescribing after knee or shoulder arthroscopy: a randomized clinical trial; Graft healing is more important than graft technique in massive rotator cuff tear; Subscapularis tenotomy versus peel after anatomic shoulder arthroplasty; Previous rotator cuff repair increases the risk of revision surgery for periprosthetic joint infection after reverse shoulder arthroplasty; Conservative versus operative treatment of acromial and scapular spine fractures following reverse total shoulder arthroplasty

Aims. The aim of this study was to describe the demographic details of patients who sustain a femoral periprosthetic fracture (PPF), the epidemiology of PPFs, PPF characteristics, and the predictors of PPF types in the UK population. Methods. This is a multicentre retrospective cohort study including adult patients presenting to hospital with a new PPF between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018. Data collected included: patient characteristics, comorbidities, anticoagulant use, social circumstances, level of mobility, fracture characteristics, Unified Classification System (UCS) type, and details of the original implant. Descriptive analysis by fracture location was performed, and predictors of PPF type were assessed using mixed-effects logistic regression models. Results. In total, 720 femoral PPFs from 27 NHS sites were included. PPF patients were typically elderly (mean 79.9 years (SD 10.6)), female (n = 455; 63.2%), had at least one comorbidity (n = 670; 93.1%), and were reliant on walking aids or bed-/chair-bound prior to admission (n = 419; 61.7%). The study population included 539 (74.9%) hip PPFs, 151 (21.0%) knee PPFs, and 30 (4.2%) dividing type PPFs. For hip (n = 407; 75.5%) and knee (n = 88; 58.3%) arthroplasty UCS B type fractures were most common. Overall, 556 (86.2%) were treated in the presenting hospital and 89 (13.8%) required transfer for treatment. Female sex was the only significant predictor of fracture type (A/B1/C type versus B2/B3) for femoral hip PPFs (odds ratio 0.61 (95% confidence interval 0.41 to 0.91); p = 0.014). Sex, residence type, primary versus revision implant PPF, implant fixation, and time between arthroplasty and PPF were not found to predict fracture type for hip PPFs. Conclusion. This multicentre analysis describes patient and injury factors for patients presenting with femoral PPFs to centres across the UK. These patients are generally elderly and frail, comparable to those sustaining a hip fracture. These data can be useful in planning future services and clinical trials. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):987–996

Aims. Periprosthetic hip-joint infection is a multifaceted and highly detrimental outcome for patients and clinicians. The incidence of prosthetic joint infection reported within two years of primary hip arthroplasty ranges from 0.8% to 2.1%. Costs of treatment are over five-times greater in people with periprosthetic hip joint infection than in those with no infection. Currently, there are no national evidence-based guidelines for treatment and management of this condition to guide clinical practice or to inform clinical study design. The aim of this study is to develop guidelines based on evidence from the six-year INFection and ORthopaedic Management (INFORM) research programme. Methods. We used a consensus process consisting of an evidence review to generate items for the guidelines and online consensus questionnaire and virtual face-to-face consensus meeting to draft the guidelines. Results. The consensus panel comprised 21 clinical experts in orthopaedics, primary care, rehabilitation, and healthcare commissioning. The final output from the consensus process was a 14-item guideline. The guidelines make recommendations regarding increased vigilance and monitoring of those at increased risk of infection; diagnosis including strategies to ensure the early recognition of prosthetic infection and referral to orthopaedic teams; treatment, including early use of DAIR and revision strategies; and postoperative management including appropriate physical and psychological support and antibiotic strategies. Conclusion. We believe the implementation of the INFORM guidelines will inform treatment protocols and clinical pathways to improve the treatment and management of periprosthetic hip infection. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(4):226–233

Aims. Cemented hemiarthroplasty is an effective form of treatment for most patients with an intracapsular fracture of the hip. However, it remains unclear whether there are subgroups of patients who may benefit from the alternative operation of a modern uncemented hemiarthroplasty – the aim of this study was to investigate this issue. Knowledge about the heterogeneity of treatment effects is important for surgeons in order to target operations towards specific subgroups who would benefit the most. Methods. We used causal forest analysis to compare subgroup- and individual-level treatment effects between cemented and modern uncemented hemiarthroplasty in patients aged > 60 years with an intracapsular fracture of the hip, using data from the World Hip Trauma Evaluation 5 (WHiTE 5) multicentre randomized clinical trial. EuroQol five-dimension index scores were used to measure health-related quality of life at one, four, and 12 months postoperatively. Results. Our analysis revealed a complex landscape of responses to the use of a cemented hemiarthroplasty in the 12 months after surgery. There was heterogeneity of effects with regard to baseline characteristics, including age, pre-injury health status, and lifestyle factors such as alcohol consumption. This heterogeneity was greater at the one-month mark than at subsequent follow-up timepoints, with particular regard to subgroups based on age. However, for all subgroups, the effect estimates for quality of life lay within the confidence intervals derived from the analysis of all patients. Conclusion. The use of a cemented hemiarthroplasty is expected to increase health-related quality of life compared with modern uncemented hemiarthroplasty for all subgroups of patients aged > 60 years with a displaced intracapsular fracture of the hip. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(7):656–661

Aims. Hip disease is common in children with cerebral palsy (CP) and can decrease quality of life and function. Surveillance programmes exist to improve outcomes by treating hip disease at an early stage using radiological surveillance. However, studies and surveillance programmes report different radiological outcomes, making it difficult to compare. We aimed to identify the most important radiological measurements and develop a core measurement set (CMS) for clinical practice, research, and surveillance programmes. Methods. A systematic review identified a list of measurements previously used in studies reporting radiological hip outcomes in children with CP. These measurements informed a two-round Delphi study, conducted among orthopaedic surgeons and specialist physiotherapists. Participants rated each measurement on a nine-point Likert scale (‘not important’ to ‘critically important’). A consensus meeting was held to finalize the CMS. Results. Overall, 14 distinct measurements were identified in the systematic review, with Reimer’s migration percentage being the most frequently reported. These measurements were presented over the two rounds of the Delphi process, along with two additional measurements that were suggested by participants. Ultimately, two measurements, Reimer’s migration percentage and femoral head-shaft angle, were included in the CMS. Conclusion. This use of a minimum standardized set of measurements has the potential to encourage uniformity across hip surveillance programmes, and may streamline the development of tools, such as artificial intelligence systems to automate the analysis in surveillance programmes. This core set should be the minimum requirement in clinical studies, allowing clinicians to add to this as needed, which will facilitate comparisons to be drawn between studies and future meta-analyses. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(11):825–831

Aims. The management of mid-shaft clavicle fractures (MSCFs) has evolved over the last three decades. Controversy exists over which specific fracture patterns to treat and when. This review aims to synthesize the literature in order to formulate an appropriate management algorithm for these injuries in both adolescents and adults. Methods. This is a systematic review of clinical studies comparing the outcomes of operative and nonoperative treatments for MSCFs in the past 15 years. The literature was searched using, PubMed, Google scholar, OVID Medline, and Embase. All databases were searched with identical search terms: mid-shaft clavicle fractures (± fixation) (± nonoperative). Results. Using the search criteria identified, 247 studies were deemed eligible. Following initial screening, 220 studies were excluded on the basis that they were duplicates and/or irrelevant to the research question being posed. A total of 27 full-text articles remained and were included in the final review. The majority of the meta-analyses draw the same conclusions, which are that operatively treated fractures have lower nonunion and malunion rates but that, in those fractures which unite (either operative or nonoperative), the functional outcomes are the same at six months. Conclusion. With regard to the adolescent population, the existing body of evidence is insufficient to support the use of routine operative management. Regarding adult fractures, the key to identifying patients who benefit from operative management lies in the identification of risk factors for nonunion. We present an algorithm that can be used to guide both the patient and the surgeon in a joint decision-making process, in order to optimize patient satisfaction and outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(11):850–858

Aims. The aim of this study was to report the pooled prevalence of post-traumatic osteoarthritis (PTOA) and examine whether the risk of developing PTOA after anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury has decreased in recent decades. Methods. The PubMed and Web of Science databases were searched from 1 January 1980 to 11 May 2022. Patient series, observational studies, and clinical trials having reported the prevalence of radiologically confirmed PTOA after ACL injury, with at least a ten-year follow-up, were included. All studies were analyzed simultaneously, and separate analyses of the operative and nonoperative knees were performed. The prevalence of PTOA was calculated separately for each study, and pooled prevalence was reported with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using either a fixed or random effects model. To examine the effect of the year of injury on the prevalence, a logit transformed meta-regression analysis was used with a maximum-likelihood estimator. Results from meta-regression analyses were reported with the unstandardized coefficient (β). Results. The pooled prevalence of PTOA was 37.9% (95% CI 32.1 to 44) for operatively treated ACL injuries with a median follow-up of 14.6 years (interquartile range (IQR) 10.6 to 16.7). For nonoperatively treated ACL injuries, the prevalence was 40.5% (95% CI 28.9 to 53.3), with a median of follow-up of 15 years (IQR 11.7 to 20.0). The association between the year of operation and the prevalence of PTOA was weak and imprecise and not related to the choice of treatment (operative β -0.038 (95% CI -0.076 to 0.000) and nonoperative β -0.011 (95% CI -0.101 to 0.079)). Conclusion. The initial injury, irrespective of management, has, by the balance of probability, resulted in PTOA within 20 years. In addition, the prevalence of PTOA has only slightly decreased during past decades. Therefore, further research is warranted to develop strategies to prevent the development of PTOA after ACL injuries. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(11):1140–1148