Aims. A substantial fraction of patients undergoing knee arthroplasty (KA) or hip arthroplasty (HA) do not achieve an improvement as high as the minimal clinically important difference (MCID), i.e. do not achieve a meaningful improvement. Using three patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), our aim was: 1) to assess machine learning (ML), the simple pre-surgery PROM score, and logistic-regression (LR)-derived performance in their prediction of whether patients undergoing HA or KA achieve an improvement as high or higher than a calculated MCID; and 2) to test whether ML is able to outperform LR or pre-surgery PROM scores in predictive performance. Methods. MCIDs were derived using the change difference method in a sample of 1,843 HA and 1,546 KA patients. An artificial neural network, a gradient boosting machine, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, ridge regression, elastic net, random forest, LR, and pre-surgery PROM scores were applied to predict MCID for the following PROMs: EuroQol five-dimension, five-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L), EQ visual analogue scale (EQ-VAS), Hip disability and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score-Physical Function Short-form (HOOS-PS), and Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score-Physical Function Short-form (KOOS-PS). Results. Predictive performance of the best models per outcome ranged from 0.71 for HOOS-PS to 0.84 for EQ-VAS (HA sample). ML statistically significantly outperformed LR and pre-surgery PROM scores in two out of six cases. Conclusion. MCIDs can be predicted with reasonable performance. ML was able to outperform traditional methods, although only in a minority of cases. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(9):512–521

The June 2024 Hip & Pelvis Roundup. 360. looks at: Machine learning did not outperform conventional competing risk modelling to predict revision arthroplasty; Unravelling the risks: incidence and reoperation rates for femoral fractures post-total hip arthroplasty; Spinal versus general anaesthesia for hip arthroscopy: a COVID-19 pandemic- and opioid epidemic-driven study; Development and validation of a deep-learning model to predict total hip arthroplasty on radiographs; Ambulatory centres lead in same-day hip and knee arthroplasty success; Exploring the impact of smokeless tobacco on total hip arthroplasty outcomes: a deeper dive into postoperative complications

The February 2024 Hip & Pelvis Roundup. 360. looks at: Trial of vancomycin and cefazolin as surgical prophylaxis in arthroplasty; Is preoperative posterior femoral neck tilt a risk factor for fixation failure? Cemented versus uncemented hemiarthroplasty for displaced intracapsular fractures of the hip; Periprosthetic fractures in larger hydroxyapatite-coated stems: are collared stems a better alternative for total hip arthroplasty?; Postoperative periprosthetic fracture following hip arthroplasty with a polished taper slip versus composite beam stem; Is oral tranexamic acid as good as intravenous?; Stem design and the risk of early periprosthetic femur fractures following THA in elderly patients; Does powered femoral broaching compromise patient safety in total hip arthroplasty?

Aims. Instability is a common cause of failure after total hip arthroplasty. A novel reverse total hip has been developed, with a femoral cup and acetabular ball, creating enhanced mechanical stability. The purpose of this study was to assess the implant fixation using radiostereometric analysis (RSA), and the clinical safety and efficacy of this novel design. Methods. Patients with end-stage osteoarthritis were enrolled in a prospective cohort at a single centre. The cohort consisted of 11 females and 11 males with mean age of 70.6 years (SD 3.5) and BMI of 31.0 kg/m. 2. (SD 5.7). Implant fixation was evaluated using RSA as well as Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index, Harris Hip Score, Oxford Hip Score, Hip disability and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score, 38-item Short Form survey, and EuroQol five-dimension health questionnaire scores at two-year follow-up. At least one acetabular screw was used in all cases. RSA markers were inserted into the innominate bone and proximal femur with imaging at six weeks (baseline) and six, 12, and 24 months. Independent-samples t-tests were used to compare to published thresholds. Results. Mean acetabular subsidence from baseline to 24 months was 0.087 mm (SD 0.152), below the critical threshold of 0.2 mm (p = 0.005). Mean femoral subsidence from baseline to 24 months was -0.002 mm (SD 0.194), below the published reference of 0.5 mm (p < 0.001). There was significant improvement in patient-reported outcome measures at 24 months with good to excellent results. Conclusion. RSA analysis demonstrates excellent fixation with a predicted low risk of revision at ten years of this novel reverse total hip system. Clinical outcomes were consistent with safe and effective hip replacement prostheses. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(5):385–392

Aims. Due to the opioid epidemic in the USA, our service progressively decreased the number of opioid tablets prescribed at discharge after primary hip (THA) and knee (TKA) arthroplasty. The goal of this study was to analyze the effect on total morphine milligram equivalents (MMEs) prescribed and post-discharge opioid repeat prescriptions. Methods. We retrospectively reviewed 19,428 patients undergoing a primary THA or TKA between 1 February 2016 and 31 December 2019. Two reductions in the number of opioid tablets prescribed at discharge were implemented over this time; as such, we analyzed three periods (P1, P2, and P3) with different routine discharge MME (750, 520, and 320 MMEs, respectively). We investigated 90-day refill rates, refill MMEs, and whether discharge MMEs were associated with represcribing in a multivariate model. Results. A discharge prescription of < 400 MMEs was not a risk factor for opioid represcribing in the entire population (p = 0.772) or in opioid-naïve patients alone (p = 0.272). Procedure type was the most significant risk factor for narcotic represcribing, with unilateral TKA (hazard ratio (HR) = 5.62), bilateral TKA (HR = 6.32), and bilateral unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA) (HR = 5.29) (all p < 0.001) being the highest risk for refills. For these three procedures, there was approximately a 5% to 6% increase in refills from P1 to P3 (p < 0.001); however, there was no significant increase in refill rates after any hip arthroplasty procedures. Total MMEs prescribed were significantly reduced from P1 to P3 (p < 0.001), leading to the equivalent of nearly 500,000 fewer oxycodone 5 mg tablets prescribed. Conclusion. Decreasing opioids prescribed at discharge led to a statistically significant reduction in total MMEs prescribed. While the represcribing rate did not increase for any hip arthroplasty procedure, the overall refill rates increased by about 5% for most knee arthroplasty procedures. As such, we are now probably prescribing an appropriate amount of opioids at discharge for knee arthroplasty procedure, but further reductions may be possible for hip arthroplasty procedures. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(7 Supple B):103–110

The December 2022 Hip & Pelvis Roundup. 360. looks at: Fix and replace: simultaneous fracture fixation and hip arthroplasty for acetabular fractures in older patients; Is the revision rate for femoral neck fracture lower for total hip arthroplasty than for hemiarthroplasty?; Femoral periprosthetic fractures: data from the COMPOSE cohort study; Dual-mobility cups and fracture of the femur; What’s the deal with outcomes for hip and knee arthroplasty outcomes internationally?; Osteochondral lesions of the femoral head: is costal cartilage the answer?

Aims. Orthopaedic surgeries are complex, frequently performed procedures associated with significant haemorrhage and perioperative blood transfusion. Given refinements in surgical techniques and changes to transfusion practices, we aim to describe contemporary transfusion practices in orthopaedic surgery in order to inform perioperative planning and blood banking requirements. Methods. We performed a retrospective cohort study of adult patients who underwent orthopaedic surgery at four Canadian hospitals between 2014 and 2016. We studied all patients admitted to hospital for nonarthroscopic joint surgeries, amputations, and fracture surgeries. For each surgery and surgical subgroup, we characterized the proportion of patients who received red blood cell (RBC) transfusion, the mean/median number of RBC units transfused, and exposure to platelets and plasma. Results. Of the 14,584 included patients, the most commonly performed surgeries were knee arthroplasty (24.8%), hip arthroplasty (24.6%), and hip fracture surgery (17.4%). A total of 10.3% of patients received RBC transfusion; the proportion of patients receiving RBC transfusions varied widely based on the surgical subgroup (0.0% to 33.1%). Primary knee arthroplasty and hip arthroplasty, the two most common surgeries, were associated with in-hospital transfusion frequencies of 2.8% and 4.5%, respectively. RBC transfusion occurred in 25.0% of hip fracture surgeries, accounting for the greatest total number of RBC units transfused in our cohort (38.0% of all transfused RBC units). Platelet and plasma transfusions were uncommon. Conclusion. Orthopaedic surgeries were associated with variable rates of transfusion. The rate of RBC transfusion is highly dependent on the surgery type. Identifying surgeries with the highest transfusion rates, and further evaluation of factors that contribute to transfusion in identified at-risk populations, can serve to inform perioperative planning and blood bank requirements, and facilitate pre-emptive transfusion mitigation strategies. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(10):850–857

The October 2023 Hip & Pelvis Roundup. 360. looks at: Femoroacetabular impingement syndrome at ten years – how do athletes do?; Venous thromboembolism in patients following total joint replacement: are transfusions to blame?; What changes in pelvic sagittal tilt occur 20 years after total hip arthroplasty?; Can stratified care in hip arthroscopy predict successful and unsuccessful outcomes?; Hip replacement into your nineties; Can large language models help with follow-up?; The most taxing of revisions – proximal femoral replacement for periprosthetic joint infection – what’s the benefit of dual mobility?

The August 2024 Hip & Pelvis Roundup. 360. looks at: Understanding perceived leg length discrepancy post-total hip arthroplasty: the role of pelvic obliquity; Influence of femoral stem design on revision rates in total hip arthroplasty; Outcomes of arthroscopic labral treatment of femoroacetabular impingement in adolescents; Characteristics and quality of online searches for direct anterior versus posterior approach for total hip arthroplasty; Rapid return to braking after anterior and posterior approach total hip arthroplasty; How much protection does a collar provide?; Timing matters: reducing infection risk in total hip arthroplasty with corticosteroid injection intervals; Identifying pain recovery patterns in total hip arthroplasty using PROMIS data

Aims. This study compares the re-revision rate and mortality following septic and aseptic revision hip arthroplasty (rTHA) in registry data, and compares the outcomes to previously reported data. Methods. This is an observational cohort study using data from the German Arthroplasty Registry (EPRD). A total of 17,842 rTHAs were included, and the rates and cumulative incidence of hip re-revision and mortality following septic and aseptic rTHA were analyzed with seven-year follow-up. The Kaplan-Meier estimates were used to determine the re-revision rate and cumulative probability of mortality following rTHA. Results. The re-revision rate within one year after septic rTHA was 30%, and after seven years was 34%. The cumulative mortality within the first year after septic rTHA was 14%, and within seven years was 40%. After multiple previous hip revisions, the re-revision rate rose to over 40% in septic rTHA. The first six months were identified as the most critical period for the re-revision for septic rTHA. Conclusion. The risk re-revision and reinfection after septic rTHA was almost four times higher, as recorded in the ERPD, when compared to previous meta-analysis. We conclude that it is currently not possible to assume the data from single studies and meta-analysis reflects the outcomes in the ‘real world’. Data presented in meta-analyses and from specialist single-centre studies do not reflect the generality of outcomes as recorded in the ERPD. The highest re-revision rates and mortality are seen in the first six months postoperatively. The optimization of perioperative care through the development of a network of high-volume specialist hospitals is likely to lead to improved outcomes for patients undergoing rTHA, especially if associated with infection. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(6):565–572

Aims. Periprosthetic fractures (PPFs) following hip arthroplasty are complex injuries. This study evaluates patient demographic characteristics, management, outcomes, and risk factors associated with PPF subtypes over a decade. Methods. Using a multicentre collaborative study design, independent of registry data, we identified adults from 29 centres with PPFs around the hip between January 2010 and December 2019. Radiographs were assessed for the Unified Classification System (UCS) grade. Patient and injury characteristics, management, and outcomes were compared between UCS grades. A multinomial logistic regression was performed to estimate relative risk ratios (RRR) of variables on UCS grade

Aims. Our objective was describing an algorithm to identify and prevent vascular injury in patients with intrapelvic components. Methods. Patients were defined as at risk to vascular injuries when components or cement migrated 5 mm or more beyond the ilioischial line in any of the pelvic incidences (anteroposterior and Judet view). In those patients, a serial investigation was initiated by a CT angiography, followed by a vascular surgeon evaluation. The investigation proceeded if necessary. The main goal was to assure a safe tissue plane between the hardware and the vessels. Results. In ten at-risk patients undergoing revision hip arthroplasty and submitted to our algorithm, six were recognized as being high risk to vascular injury during surgery. In those six high-risk patients, a preventive preoperative stent was implanted before the orthopaedic procedure. Four patients needed a second reinforcing stent to protect and to maintain the vessel anatomy deformed by the intrapelvic implants. Conclusion. The evaluation algorithm was useful to avoid blood vessels injury during revision total hip arthroplasty in high-risk patients. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(11):859–866

Aims. The risk of mechanical failure of modular revision hip stems is frequently mentioned in the literature, but little is currently known about the actual clinical failure rates of this type of prosthesis. The current retrospective long-term analysis examines the distal and modular failure patterns of the Prevision hip stem from 18 years of clinical use. A design improvement of the modular taper was introduced in 2008, and the data could also be used to compare the original and the current design of the modular connection. Methods. We performed an analysis of the Prevision modular hip stem using the manufacturer’s vigilance database and investigated different mechanical failure patterns of the hip stem from January 2004 to December 2022. Results. Two mechanical failure patterns were identified: fractures in the area of the distal fluted profile (distal stem fracture) and failure of the modular taper (modular fracture). A failure rate of 0.07% was observed for distal stem fracture, and modular fracture rates of 1.74% for the original and 0.013% for the current taper design. Conclusion. A low risk of mechanical failure for both fracture types was observed compared to other known complications in revision hip arthroplasty. In addition, the data show that a design change did significantly reduce the risk of a modular fracture. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(2):151–157

Aims. In metal-on-metal (MoM) hip arthroplasties and resurfacings, mechanically induced corrosion can lead to elevated serum metal ions, a local inflammatory response, and formation of pseudotumours, ultimately requiring revision. The size and diametral clearance of anatomical (ADM) and modular (MDM) dual-mobility polyethylene bearings match those of Birmingham hip MoM components. If the acetabular component is satisfactorily positioned, well integrated into the bone, and has no surface damage, this presents the opportunity for revision with exchange of the metal head for ADM/MDM polyethylene bearings without removal of the acetabular component. Methods. Between 2012 and 2020, across two centres, 94 patients underwent revision of Birmingham MoM hip arthroplasties or resurfacings. Mean age was 65.5 years (33 to 87). In 53 patients (56.4%), the acetabular component was retained and dual-mobility bearings were used (DM); in 41 (43.6%) the acetabulum was revised (AR). Patients underwent follow-up of minimum two-years (mean 4.6 (2.1 to 8.5) years). Results. In the DM group, two (3.8%) patients underwent further surgery: one (1.9%) for dislocation and one (1.9%) for infection. In the AR group, four (9.8%) underwent further procedures: two (4.9%) for loosening of the acetabular component and two (4.9%) following dislocations. There were no other dislocations in either group. In the DM group, operating time (68.4 vs 101.5 mins, p < 0.001), postoperative drop in haemoglobin (16.6 vs 27.8 g/L, p < 0.001), and length of stay (1.8 vs 2.4 days, p < 0.001) were significantly lower. There was a significant reduction in serum metal ions postoperatively in both groups (p < 0.001), although there was no difference between groups for this reduction (p = 0.674 (cobalt); p = 0.186 (chromium)). Conclusion. In selected patients with Birmingham MoM hips, where the acetabular component is well-fixed and in a satisfactory position with no surface damage, the metal head can be exchanged for polyethylene ADM/MDM bearings with retention of the acetabular prosthesis. This presents significant benefits, with a shorter procedure and a lower risk of complications. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(6):514–523

Aims. The aim of this study was to determine the effectiveness of home-based prehabilitation on pre- and postoperative outcomes in participants awaiting total knee (TKA) and hip arthroplasty (THA). Methods. A systematic review with meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of prehabilitation interventions for TKA and THA. MEDLINE, CINAHL, ProQuest, PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar databases were searched from inception to October 2022. Evidence was assessed by the PEDro scale and the Cochrane risk-of-bias (ROB2) tool. Results. A total of 22 RCTs (1,601 patients) were identified with good overall quality and low risk of bias. Prehabilitation significantly improved pain prior to TKA (mean difference (MD) -1.02: p = 0.001), with non-significant improvements for function before (MD -0.48; p = 0.06) and after TKA (MD -0.69; p = 0.25). Small preoperative improvements were observed for pain (MD -0.02; p = 0.87) and function (MD -0.18; p = 0.16) prior to THA, but no post THA effect was found for pain (MD 0.19; p = 0.44) and function (MD 0.14; p = 0.68). A trend favouring usual care for improving quality of life (QoL) prior to TKA (MD 0.61; p = 0.34), but no effect on QoL prior (MD 0.03; p = 0.87) or post THA (MD -0.05; p = 0.83) was found. Prehabilitation significantly reduced hospital length of stay (LOS) for TKA (MD -0.43 days; p < 0.001) but not for THA (MD, -0.24; p = 0.12). Compliance was only reported in 11 studies and was excellent with a mean value of 90.5% (SD 6.82). Conclusion. Prehabilitation interventions improve pain and function prior to TKA and THA and reduce hospital LOS, though it is unclear if these effects enhance outcomes postoperatively. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(5):315–328

Aims. The aim of the HIPGEN consortium is to develop the first cell therapy product for hip fracture patients using PLacental-eXpanded (PLX-PAD) stromal cells. Methods. HIPGEN is a multicentre, multinational, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. A total of 240 patients aged 60 to 90 years with low-energy femoral neck fractures (FNF) will be allocated to two arms and receive an intramuscular injection of either 150 × 10. 6. PLX-PAD cells or placebo into the medial gluteal muscle after direct lateral implantation of total or hemi hip arthroplasty. Patients will be followed for two years. The primary endpoint is the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) at week 26. Secondary and exploratory endpoints include morphological parameters (lean body mass), functional parameters (abduction and handgrip strength, symmetry in gait, weightbearing), all-cause mortality rate and patient-reported outcome measures (Lower Limb Measure, EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire). Immunological biomarker and in vitro studies will be performed to analyze the PLX-PAD mechanism of action. A sample size of 240 subjects was calculated providing 88% power for the detection of a 1 SPPB point treatment effect for a two-sided test with an α level of 5%. Conclusion. The HIPGEN study assesses the efficacy, safety, and tolerability of intramuscular PLX-PAD administration for the treatment of muscle injury following arthroplasty for hip fracture. It is the first phase III study to investigate the effect of an allogeneic cell therapy on improved mobilization after hip fracture, an aspect which is in sore need of addressing for the improvement in standard of care treatment for patients with FNF. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(4):340–347

Aims. Access to joint replacement is being restricted for patients with comorbidities in a number of high-income countries. However, there is little evidence on the impact of comorbidities on outcomes. The purpose of this study was to determine the safety and effectiveness of hip and knee arthroplasty in patients with and without comorbidities. Methods. In total, 312,079 hip arthroplasty and 328,753 knee arthroplasty patients were included. A total of 11 common comorbidities were identified in administrative hospital records. Safety risks were measured by assessing length of hospital stay (LOS) and 30-day emergency readmissions and mortality. Effectiveness outcomes were changes in Oxford Hip or Knee Scores (OHS/OKS) (scale from 0 (worst) to 48 (best)) and in health-related quality of life (EQ-5D) (scale from 0 (death) to 1 (full health)) from immediately before, to six months after, surgery. Regression analysis was used to estimate adjusted mean differences (LOS, change in OHS/OKS/EQ-5D) and risk differences (readmissions and mortality). Results. Patients with comorbidities had a longer LOS and higher readmission and mortality rates than patients without. In hip arthroplasty patients with heart disease, for example, LOS was 1.20 days (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15 to 1.25) longer and readmission rate was 1.52% (95% CI 1.34% to 1.71%) and mortality 0.19% (95% CI 0.15% to 0.23%) higher. Similar patterns were observed for knee arthroplasty patients. Patients without comorbidities reported large improvements in function (mean improvement OHS 21.3 (SD 9.91) and OKS 15.9 (SD 10.0)). Patients with comorbidities reported only slightly smaller improvements. In patients with heart disease, mean improvement in OHS was 0.39 (95% CI 0.27 to 0.51) and in OKS 0.56 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.67) less than in patients without comorbidities. There were no significant differences in EQ-5D improvement. Conclusion. Comorbidities were associated with small increases in adverse safety risks but they have little impact on pain or function in patients undergoing hip or knee arthroplasty. These results do not support restricting access to hip and knee arthroplasty for patients with common comorbidities. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(1):56–64

Aims. Hip arthroplasty aims to accurately recreate joint biomechanics. Considerable attention has been paid to vertical and horizontal offset, but femoral head centre in the anteroposterior (AP) plane has received little attention. This study investigates the accuracy of restoration of joint centre of rotation in the AP plane. Methods. Postoperative CT scans of 40 patients who underwent unilateral uncemented total hip arthroplasty were analyzed. Anteroposterior offset (APO) and femoral anteversion were measured on both the operated and non-operated sides. Sagittal tilt of the femoral stem was also measured. APO measured on axial slices was defined as the perpendicular distance between a line drawn from the anterior most point of the proximal femur (anterior reference line) to the centre of the femoral head. The anterior reference line was made parallel to the posterior condylar axis of the knee to correct for rotation. Results. Overall, 26/40 hips had a centre of rotation displaced posteriorly compared to the contralateral hip, increasing to 33/40 once corrected for sagittal tilt, with a mean posterior displacement of 7 mm. Linear regression analysis indicated that stem anteversion needed to be increased by 10.8° to recreate the head centre in the AP plane. Merely matching the native version would result in a 12 mm posterior displacement. Conclusion. This study demonstrates the significant incidence of posterior displacement of the head centre in uncemented hip arthroplasty. Effects of such displacement include a reduction in impingement free range of motion, potential alterations in muscle force vectors and lever arms, and impaired proprioception due to muscle fibre reorientation. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2022;11(3):180–188

Aims. Although the short stem concept in hip arthroplasty procedure shows acceptable clinical performance, we sometimes get unexplainable radiological findings. The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate changes of radiological findings up to three years postoperatively, and to assess any potential contributing factors on such radiological change in a Japanese population. Methods. This is a retrospective radiological study conducted in Japan. Radiological assessment was done in accordance with predetermined radiological review protocol. A total of 241 hips were included in the study and 118 hips (49.0%) revealed radiological change from immediately after surgery to one year postoperatively; these 118 hips were eligible for further analyses. Each investigator screened whether either radiolucent lines (RLLs), cortical hypertrophy (CH), or atrophy (AT) appeared or not on the one-year radiograph. Further, three-year radiographs of eligible cases were reviewed to determine changes such as, disappeared (D), improved (I), stable (S), and progression (P). Additionally, bone condensation (BC) was assessed on the three-year radiograph. Results. CH was observed in 49 hips (21.1%), AT was observed in 63 hips (27.2%), and RLLs were observed in 34 hips (14.7%) at one year postoperatively. Among 34 hips with RLLs, 70.6% showed change of either D or I on the three-year radiograph. BC was observed in younger patients more frequently. Conclusion. The Fitmore stem works well in a Japanese population with favourable radiological change on hips with RLLs. Longer-term follow-up is required to determine clinical relevance. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(1):20–28

Aims. To calculate how the likelihood of obtaining measurable benefit from hip or knee arthroplasty varies with preoperative patient-reported scores. Methods. Existing UK data from 222,933 knee and 209,760 hip arthroplasty patients were used to model an individual’s probability of gaining meaningful improvement after surgery based on their preoperative Oxford Knee or Hip Score (OKS/OHS). A clinically meaningful improvement after arthroplasty was defined as ≥ 8 point improvement in OHS, and ≥ 7 in OKS. Results. The upper preoperative score threshold, above which patients are unlikely to achieve any meaningful improvement from surgery, is 41 for knees and 40 for hips. At lower scores, the probability of improvement increased towards a maximum of 88% (knee) and 95% for (hips). Conclusion. By our definition of meaningful improvement, patients with preoperative scores above 41 (OKS) and 40 (OHS) should not be routinely referred to secondary care for possible arthroplasty. Using lower thresholds would incrementally increase the probability of meaningful benefit for those referred but will exclude some patients with potential to benefit. The findings are useful to support the complex shared decision-making process in primary care for referral to secondary care; and in secondary care for experienced clinicians counselling patients considering knee or hip arthroplasty, but should not be used in isolation. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(7):941–949