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The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 8 | Pages 834 - 841
1 Aug 2024
French JMR Deere K Jones T Pegg DJ Reed MR Whitehouse MR Sayers A

Aims. The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the provision of arthroplasty services in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. This study aimed to quantify the backlog, analyze national trends, and predict time to recovery. Methods. We performed an analysis of the mandatory prospective national registry of all independent and publicly funded hip, knee, shoulder, elbow, and ankle replacements in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland between January 2019 and December 2022 inclusive, totalling 729,642 operations. The deficit was calculated per year compared to a continuation of 2019 volume. Total deficit of cases between 2020 to 2022 was expressed as a percentage of 2019 volume. Sub-analyses were performed based on procedure type, country, and unit sector. Results. Between January 2020 and December 2022, there was a deficit of 158,994 joint replacements. This is equivalent to over two-thirds of a year of normal expected operating activity (71.6%). There were 104,724 (-47.1%) fewer performed in 2020, 41,928 (-18.9%) fewer performed in 2021, and 12,342 (-5.6%) fewer performed in 2022, respectively, than in 2019. Independent-sector procedures increased to make it the predominant arthroplasty provider (53% in 2022). NHS activity was 73.2% of 2019 levels, while independent activity increased to 126.8%. Wales (-136.3%) and Northern Ireland (-121.3%) recorded deficits of more than a year’s worth of procedures, substantially more than England (-66.7%). It would take until 2031 to eliminate this deficit with an immediate expansion of capacity over 2019 levels by 10%. Conclusion. The arthroplasty deficit following the COVID-19 pandemic is now equivalent to over two-thirds of a year of normal operating activity, and continues to increase. Patients awaiting different types of arthroplasty, in each country, have been affected disproportionately. A rapid and significant expansion in services is required to address the deficit, and will still take many years to rectify. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(8):834–841


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 7 | Pages 601 - 611
18 Jul 2024
Azarboo A Ghaseminejad-Raeini A Teymoori-Masuleh M Mousavi SM Jamalikhah-Gaskarei N Hoveidaei AH Citak M Luo TD

Aims

The aim of this meta-analysis was to determine the pooled incidence of postoperative urinary retention (POUR) following total hip and knee arthroplasty (total joint replacement (TJR)) and to evaluate the risk factors and complications associated with POUR.

Methods

Two authors conducted searches in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Scopus on TJR and urinary retention. Eligible studies that reported the rate of POUR and associated risk factors for patients undergoing TJR were included in the analysis. Patient demographic details, medical comorbidities, and postoperative outcomes and complications were separately analyzed. The effect estimates for continuous and categorical data were reported as standardized mean differences (SMDs) and odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs, respectively.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 7 | Pages 688 - 695
1 Jul 2024
Farrow L Zhong M Anderson L

Aims

To examine whether natural language processing (NLP) using a clinically based large language model (LLM) could be used to predict patient selection for total hip or total knee arthroplasty (THA/TKA) from routinely available free-text radiology reports.

Methods

Data pre-processing and analyses were conducted according to the Artificial intelligence to Revolutionize the patient Care pathway in Hip and knEe aRthroplastY (ARCHERY) project protocol. This included use of de-identified Scottish regional clinical data of patients referred for consideration of THA/TKA, held in a secure data environment designed for artificial intelligence (AI) inference. Only preoperative radiology reports were included. NLP algorithms were based on the freely available GatorTron model, a LLM trained on over 82 billion words of de-identified clinical text. Two inference tasks were performed: assessment after model-fine tuning (50 Epochs and three cycles of k-fold cross validation), and external validation.


Aims

The aim of this study was to evaluate the healthcare costs and benefits of enoxaparin compared to aspirin in the prevention of symptomatic venous thromboembolism (VTE) after total hip arthroplasty (THA) or total knee arthroplasty (TKA) using data from the CRISTAL trial.

Methods

This trial-based economic analysis reports value for money as incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained in 2022 Australian dollars, compared to a single threshold value of AUD$70,000 per QALY. Event costs were estimated based on occurrence of VTEs and bleeds, and on published guidelines for treatment. Unit costs were taken from Australian sources. QALYs were estimated using CRISTAL six-month follow-up data. Sensitivity analyses are presented that vary the cost of VTE treatment, and extend the analyses to two years.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 4 | Pages 365 - 371
1 Apr 2024
Ledford CK Shirley MB Spangehl MJ Berry DJ Abdel MP

Aims

Breast cancer survivors have known risk factors that might influence the results of total hip arthroplasty (THA) or total knee arthroplasty (TKA). This study evaluated clinical outcomes of patients with breast cancer history after primary THA and TKA.

Methods

Our total joint registry identified patients with breast cancer history undergoing primary THA (n = 423) and TKA (n = 540). Patients were matched 1:1 based upon age, sex, BMI, procedure (hip or knee), and surgical year to non-breast cancer controls. Mortality, implant survival, and complications were assessed via Kaplan-Meier methods. Clinical outcomes were evaluated via Harris Hip Scores (HHSs) or Knee Society Scores (KSSs). Mean follow-up was six years (2 to 15).


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 2 | Pages 166 - 173
1 Feb 2024
Scott CEH Yapp LZ MacDonald DJ Howie CR Clement ND

Aims

The primary aim was to assess change in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of patients as they waited from six to 12 months for a total hip (THA) or total or partial knee arthroplasty (KA). Secondary aims were to assess change in joint-specific function, mental health, quality of sleep, number living in a state worse than death (WTD), wellbeing, and patient satisfaction with their healthcare.

Methods

This prospective study included 142 patients awaiting a THA (mean age 66.7 years (SD 11.4); 71 female) and 214 patients awaiting KA (mean age 69.7 years (SD 8.7); 117 female). Patients completed questionnaires (EuroQol five-dimension health questionnaire (EQ-5D), Oxford Hip and Knee Scores (OHS/OKS), Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), Hospital Anxiety and Depression Score (HADS), University of California, Los Angeles Activity Scale, wellbeing assessment, and satisfaction with their healthcare) at six and 12 months while awaiting surgery.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 12 | Pages 1294 - 1302
1 Dec 2023
Knoll L Steppacher SD Furrer H Thurnheer-Zürcher MC Renz N

Aims. A higher failure rate has been reported in haematogenous periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) compared to non-haematogenous PJI. The reason for this difference is unknown. We investigated the outcome of haematogenous and non-haematogenous PJI to analyze the risk factors for failure in both groups of patients. Methods. Episodes of knee or hip PJI (defined by the European Bone and Joint Infection Society criteria) treated at our institution between January 2015 and October 2020 were included in a retrospective PJI cohort. Episodes with a follow-up of > one year were stratified by route of infection into haematogenous and non-haematogenous PJI. Probability of failure-free survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and compared between groups using log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate analysis was applied to assess risk factors for failure. Results. A total of 305 PJI episodes (174 hips, 131 knees) were allocated to the haematogenous (n = 146) or the non-haematogenous group (n = 159). Among monomicrobial infections, Staphylococcus aureus was the dominant pathogen in haematogenous PJI (76/140, 54%) and coagulase-negative staphylococci in non-haematogenous PJI (57/133, 43%). In both groups, multi-stage exchange (n = 55 (38%) in haematogenous and n = 73 (46%) in non-haematogenous PJI) and prosthesis retention (n = 70 (48%) in haematogenous and n = 48 (30%) in non-haematogenous PJI) were the most common surgical strategies. Median duration of antimicrobial treatment was 13.5 weeks (range, 0.5 to 218 weeks) and similar in both groups. After six years of follow-up, the probability of failure-free survival was significantly lower in haematogenous compared to non-haematogenous PJI (55% vs 74%; p = 0.021). Infection-related mortality was significantly higher in haematogenous than non-haematogenous PJI (7% vs 0% episodes; p = 0.001). Pathogenesis of failure was similar in both groups. Retention of the prosthesis was the only independent risk factor for failure in multivariate analysis in both groups. Conclusion. Treatment failure was significantly higher in haematogenous compared to non-haematogenous PJI. Retention of the prosthesis was the only independent risk factor for failure in both groups. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(12):1294–1302


Bone & Joint Research
Vol. 12, Issue 9 | Pages 512 - 521
1 Sep 2023
Langenberger B Schrednitzki D Halder AM Busse R Pross CM

Aims

A substantial fraction of patients undergoing knee arthroplasty (KA) or hip arthroplasty (HA) do not achieve an improvement as high as the minimal clinically important difference (MCID), i.e. do not achieve a meaningful improvement. Using three patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), our aim was: 1) to assess machine learning (ML), the simple pre-surgery PROM score, and logistic-regression (LR)-derived performance in their prediction of whether patients undergoing HA or KA achieve an improvement as high or higher than a calculated MCID; and 2) to test whether ML is able to outperform LR or pre-surgery PROM scores in predictive performance.

Methods

MCIDs were derived using the change difference method in a sample of 1,843 HA and 1,546 KA patients. An artificial neural network, a gradient boosting machine, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, ridge regression, elastic net, random forest, LR, and pre-surgery PROM scores were applied to predict MCID for the following PROMs: EuroQol five-dimension, five-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L), EQ visual analogue scale (EQ-VAS), Hip disability and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score-Physical Function Short-form (HOOS-PS), and Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score-Physical Function Short-form (KOOS-PS).


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 6 | Pages 641 - 648
1 Jun 2023
Bloch BV Matar HE Berber R Gray WK Briggs TWR James PJ Manktelow ARJ

Aims

Revision total knee arthroplasty (rTKA) and revision total hip arthroplasty (rTHA) are complex procedures with higher rates of re-revision, complications, and mortality compared to primary TKA and THA. We report the effects of the establishment of a revision arthroplasty network (the East Midlands Specialist Orthopaedic Network; EMSON) on outcomes of rTKA and rTHA.

Methods

The revision arthroplasty network was established in January 2015 and covered five hospitals in the Nottinghamshire and Lincolnshire areas of the East Midlands of England. This comprises a collaborative weekly multidisciplinary meeting where upcoming rTKA and rTHA procedures are discussed, and a plan agreed. Using the Hospital Episode Statistics database, revision procedures carried out between April 2011 and March 2018 (allowing two-year follow-up) from the five network hospitals were compared to all other hospitals in England. Age, sex, and mean Hospital Frailty Risk scores were used as covariates. The primary outcome was re-revision surgery within one year of the index revision. Secondary outcomes were re-revision surgery within two years, any complication within one and two years, and median length of hospital stay.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 4 | Pages 241 - 249
7 Apr 2023
Bayram JM Wickramasinghe NR Scott CEH Clement ND

Aims

The aims were to assess whether preoperative joint-specific function (JSF) and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) were associated with level of clinical frailty in patients waiting for a primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) or knee arthroplasty (KA).

Methods

Patients waiting for a THA (n = 100) or KA (n = 100) for more than six months were prospectively recruited from the study centre. Overall,162 patients responded to the questionnaire (81 THA; 81 KA). Patient demographics, Oxford score, EuroQol five-dimension (EQ-5D) score, EuroQol visual analogue score (EQ-VAS), Rockwood Clinical Frailty Score (CFS), and time spent on the waiting list were collected.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 3 | Pages 138 - 145
1 Mar 2023
Clark JO Razii N Lee SWJ Grant SJ Davison MJ Bailey O

Aims

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented disruption to elective orthopaedic services. The primary objective of this study was to examine changes in functional scores in patients awaiting total hip arthroplasty (THA), total knee arthroplasty (TKA), and unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA). Secondary objectives were to investigate differences between these groups and identify those in a health state ‘worse than death’ (WTD).

Methods

In this prospective cohort study, preoperative Oxford hip and knee scores (OHS/OKS) were recorded for patients added to a waiting list for THA, TKA, or UKA, during the initial eight months of the COVID-19 pandemic, and repeated at 14 months into the pandemic (mean interval nine months (SD 2.84)). EuroQoL five-dimension five-level health questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L) index scores were also calculated at this point in time, with a negative score representing a state WTD. OHS/OKS were analyzed over time and in relation to the EQ-5D-5L.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 3 | Pages 284 - 293
1 Mar 2023
Li Y Zhang X Ji B Wulamu W Yushan N Guo X Cao L

Aims. Gram-negative periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) has been poorly studied despite its rapidly increasing incidence. Treatment with one-stage revision using intra-articular (IA) infusion of antibiotics may offer a reasonable alternative with a distinct advantage of providing a means of delivering the drug in high concentrations. Carbapenems are regarded as the last line of defense against severe Gram-negative or polymicrobial infection. This study presents the results of one-stage revision using intra-articular carbapenem infusion for treating Gram-negative PJI, and analyzes the characteristics of bacteria distribution and drug sensitivity. Methods. We retrospectively reviewed 32 patients (22 hips and 11 knees) who underwent single-stage revision combined with IA carbapenem infusion between November 2013 and March 2020. The IA and intravenous (IV) carbapenem infusions were administered for a single Gram-negative infection, and IV vancomycin combined with IA carbapenems and vancomycin was applied for polymicrobial infection including Gram-negative bacteria. The bacterial community distribution, drug sensitivity, infection control rate, functional recovery, and complications were evaluated. Reinfection or death caused by PJI was regarded as a treatment failure. Results. Gram-negative PJI was mainly caused by Escherichia coli (8/34), Enterobacter cloacae (7/34), and Klebsiella pneumoniae (5/34). Seven cases (7/32) involved polymicrobial PJIs. The resistance rates of penicillin, cephalosporin, quinolones, and sulfonamides were > 10%, and all penicillin and partial cephalosporins (first and second generation) were > 30%. Of 32 cases, treatment failed to eradicate infection in only three cases (9.4%), at a mean follow-up of 55.1 months (SD 25 to 90). The mean postoperative Harris Hip Score and Hospital for Special Surgery knee score at the most recent follow-up were 81 (62 to 91) and 79 (56 to 89), respectively. One patient developed a fistula, and another presented with a local rash on an infected joint. Conclusion. The use of IA carbapenem delivered alongside one-stage revision effectively controlled Gram-negative infection and obtained acceptable clinical outcomes with few complications. Notably, first- and second-generation cephalosporins and penicillin should be administrated with caution, due to a high incidence of resistance. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(3):284–293


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 2 | Pages 72 - 78
9 Feb 2023
Kingsbury SR Smith LKK Pinedo-Villanueva R Judge A West R Wright JM Stone MH Conaghan PG

Aims

To review the evidence and reach consensus on recommendations for follow-up after total hip and knee arthroplasty.

Methods

A programme of work was conducted, including: a systematic review of the clinical and cost-effectiveness literature; analysis of routine national datasets to identify pre-, peri-, and postoperative predictors of mid-to-late term revision; prospective data analyses from 560 patients to understand how patients present for revision surgery; qualitative interviews with NHS managers and orthopaedic surgeons; and health economic modelling. Finally, a consensus meeting considered all the work and agreed the final recommendations and research areas.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 3, Issue 12 | Pages 977 - 990
23 Dec 2022
Latijnhouwers D Pedersen A Kristiansen E Cannegieter S Schreurs BW van den Hout W Nelissen R Gademan M

Aims. This study aimed to investigate the estimated change in primary and revision arthroplasty rate in the Netherlands and Denmark for hips, knees, and shoulders during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 (COVID-period). Additional points of focus included the comparison of patient characteristics and hospital type (2019 vs COVID-period), and the estimated loss of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and impact on waiting lists. Methods. All hip, knee, and shoulder arthroplasties (2014 to 2020) from the Dutch Arthroplasty Register, and hip and knee arthroplasties from the Danish Hip and Knee Arthroplasty Registries, were included. The expected number of arthroplasties per month in 2020 was estimated using Poisson regression, taking into account changes in age and sex distribution of the general Dutch/Danish population over time, calculating observed/expected (O/E) ratios. Country-specific proportions of patient characteristics and hospital type were calculated per indication category (osteoarthritis/other elective/acute). Waiting list outcomes including QALYs were estimated by modelling virtual waiting lists including 0%, 5% and 10% extra capacity. Results. During COVID-period, fewer arthroplasties were performed than expected (Netherlands: 20%; Denmark: 5%), with the lowest O/E in April. In the Netherlands, more acute indications were prioritized, resulting in more American Society of Anesthesiologists grade III to IV patients receiving surgery. In both countries, no other patient prioritization was present. Relatively more arthroplasties were performed in private hospitals. There were no clinically relevant differences in revision arthroplasties between pre-COVID and COVID-period. Estimated total health loss depending on extra capacity ranged from: 19,800 to 29,400 QALYs (Netherlands): 1,700 to 2,400 QALYs (Denmark). With no extra capacity it will take > 30 years to deplete the waiting lists. Conclusion. The COVID-19 pandemic had an enormous negative effect on arthroplasty rates, but more in the Netherlands than Denmark. In the Netherlands, hip and shoulder patients with acute indications were prioritized. Private hospitals filled in part of the capacity gap. QALY loss due to postponed arthroplasty surgeries is considerable. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(12):977–990


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 11 | Pages 1215 - 1224
1 Nov 2022
Clement ND Wickramasinghe NR Bayram JM Hughes K Oag E Heinz N Fraser E Jefferies JG Dall GF Ballantyne A Jenkins PJ

Aims

The primary aim of this study was to assess whether patients waiting six months or more for a total hip (THA) or knee (KA) arthroplasty had a deterioration in their health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Secondary aims were to assess changes in frailty and the number of patients living in a state considered to be worse than death (WTD), and factors associated with changes in HRQoL and frailty.

Methods

This cross-sectional study included 326 patients, 150 males (46.0%) and 176 females (54.0%), with a mean age of 68.6 years (SD 9.8) who were randomly selected from waiting lists at four centres and had been waiting for six months or more (median 13 months, interquartile range 10 to 21) for a primary THA (n = 161) or KA (n = 165). The EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D) and visual analogue scores (EQ-VAS), Rockwood Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), and 36-Item Short Form Survey subjective change in HRQoL were assessed at the time and recalled for six months earlier. A state that was WTD was defined as an EQ-5D of less than zero.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 3, Issue 9 | Pages 716 - 725
15 Sep 2022
Boulton C Harrison C Wilton T Armstrong R Young E Pegg D Wilkinson JM

Data of high quality are critical for the meaningful interpretation of registry information. The National Joint Registry (NJR) was established in 2002 as the result of an unexpectedly high failure rate of a cemented total hip arthroplasty. The NJR began data collection in 2003. In this study we report on the outcomes following the establishment of a formal data quality (DQ) audit process within the NJR, within which each patient episode entry is validated against the hospital unit’s Patient Administration System and vice-versa. This process enables bidirectional validation of every NJR entry and retrospective correction of any errors in the dataset. In 2014/15 baseline average compliance was 92.6% and this increased year-on-year with repeated audit cycles to 96.0% in 2018/19, with 76.4% of units achieving > 95% compliance. Following the closure of the audit cycle, an overall compliance rate of 97.9% was achieved for the 2018/19 period. An automated system was initiated in 2018 to reduce administrative burden and to integrate the DQ process into standard workflows. Our processes and quality improvement results demonstrate that DQ may be implemented successfully at national level, while minimizing the burden on hospitals.

Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(9):716–725.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 8 | Pages 929 - 937
1 Aug 2022
Gurung B Liu P Harris PDR Sagi A Field RE Sochart DH Tucker K Asopa V

Aims

Total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) are common orthopaedic procedures requiring postoperative radiographs to confirm implant positioning and identify complications. Artificial intelligence (AI)-based image analysis has the potential to automate this postoperative surveillance. The aim of this study was to prepare a scoping review to investigate how AI is being used in the analysis of radiographs following THA and TKA, and how accurate these tools are.

Methods

The Embase, MEDLINE, and PubMed libraries were systematically searched to identify relevant articles. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for scoping reviews and Arksey and O’Malley framework were followed. Study quality was assessed using a modified Methodological Index for Non-Randomized Studies tool. AI performance was reported using either the area under the curve (AUC) or accuracy.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 6 | Pages 687 - 695
1 Jun 2022
Sabah SA Knight R Alvand A Beard DJ Price AJ

Aims

Routinely collected patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) have been useful to quantify and quality-assess provision of total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) in the UK for the past decade. This study aimed to explore whether the outcome following primary THA and TKA had improved over the past seven years.

Methods

Secondary data analysis of 277,430 primary THAs and 308,007 primary TKAs from the NHS PROMs programme was undertaken. Outcome measures were: postoperative Oxford Hip/Knee Score (OHS/OKS); proportion of patients achieving a clinically important improvement in joint function (responders); quality of life; patient satisfaction; perceived success; and complication rates. Outcome measures were compared based on year of surgery using multiple linear and logistic regression models.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 3, Issue 5 | Pages 367 - 374
5 May 2022
Sinagra ZP Davis JS Lorimer M de Steiger RN Graves SE Yates P Manning L

Aims

National joint registries under-report revisions for periprosthetic joint infection (PJI). We aimed to validate PJI reporting to the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Arthroplasty Registry (AOANJRR) and the factors associated with its accuracy. We then applied these data to refine estimates of the total national burden of PJI.

Methods

A total of 561 Australian cases of confirmed PJI were captured by a large, prospective observational study, and matched to data available for the same patients through the AOANJRR.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 3, Issue 4 | Pages 302 - 306
4 Apr 2022
Mayne AIW Cassidy RS Magill P Mockford BJ Acton DA McAlinden MG

Aims. Waiting times for arthroplasty surgery in Northern Ireland are among the longest in the NHS, which have been further lengthened by the onset of the COVID-19 global pandemic in March 2020. The Department of Health in Northern Ireland has announced a new Elective Care Framework (ECF), with the framework proposing that by March 2026 no patient will wait more than 52 weeks for inpatient/day case treatment. We aimed to assess the feasibility of achieving this with reference to total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Methods. Mathematical modelling was undertaken to calculate when the ECF targets will be achieved for THA and TKA, as well as the time when waiting lists for THA and TKA will be cleared. The number of patients currently on the waiting list and percentage operating capacity relative to pre-COVID-19 capacity was used to determine future projections. Results. As of May 2021, there were 3,757 patients awaiting primary THA and 4,469 patients awaiting primary TKA in Northern Ireland. Prior to April 2020, there were a mean 2,346 (2,085 to 2,610) patients per annum boarded for primary THA, a mean 2,514 (2,494 to 2,514) patients per annum boarded for primary TKA, and there were a mean 1,554 primary THAs and 1,518 primary TKAs performed per annum. The ECF targets for THA will only be achieved in 2030 if operating capacity is 200% of pre COVID-19 pandemic capacity and in 2042 if capacity is 170%. For TKA, the targets will be met in 2034 if capacity is 200% of pre-COVID-19 pandemic capacity. Conclusion. This modelling demonstrates that, in the absence of major funding and reorganization of elective orthopaedic care, the targets set out in the ECF will not be achieved with regard to THA and TKA. Waiting times for THA and TKA surgery in Northern Ireland are likely to remain greater than 52 weeks for most of this decade. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(4):302–306