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Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 9 | Pages 704 - 712
14 Sep 2023
Mercier MR Koucheki R Lex JR Khoshbin A Park SS Daniels TR Halai MM

Aims. This study aimed to investigate the risk of postoperative complications in COVID-19-positive patients undergoing common orthopaedic procedures. Methods. Using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Programme (NSQIP) database, patients who underwent common orthopaedic surgery procedures from 1 January to 31 December 2021 were extracted. Patient preoperative COVID-19 status, demographics, comorbidities, type of surgery, and postoperative complications were analyzed. Propensity score matching was conducted between COVID-19-positive and -negative patients. Multivariable regression was then performed to identify both patient and provider risk factors independently associated with the occurrence of 30-day postoperative adverse events. Results. Of 194,121 included patients, 740 (0.38%) were identified to be COVID-19-positive. Comparison of comorbidities demonstrated that COVID-19-positive patients had higher rates of diabetes, heart failure, and pulmonary disease. After propensity matching and controlling for all preoperative variables, multivariable analysis found that COVID-19-positive patients were at increased risk of several postoperative complications, including: any adverse event, major adverse event, minor adverse event, death, venous thromboembolism, and pneumonia. COVID-19-positive patients undergoing hip/knee arthroplasty and trauma surgery were at increased risk of 30-day adverse events. Conclusion. COVID-19-positive patients undergoing orthopaedic surgery had increased odds of many 30-day postoperative complications, with hip/knee arthroplasty and trauma surgery being the most high-risk procedures. These data reinforce prior literature demonstrating increased risk of venous thromboembolic events in the acute postoperative period. Clinicians caring for patients undergoing orthopaedic procedures should be mindful of these increased risks, and attempt to improve patient care during the ongoing global pandemic. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(9):704–712


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 4 | Pages 250 - 261
7 Apr 2023
Sharma VJ Adegoke JA Afara IO Stok K Poon E Gordon CL Wood BR Raman J

Aims

Disorders of bone integrity carry a high global disease burden, frequently requiring intervention, but there is a paucity of methods capable of noninvasive real-time assessment. Here we show that miniaturized handheld near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) scans, operated via a smartphone, can assess structural human bone properties in under three seconds.

Methods

A hand-held NIR spectrometer was used to scan bone samples from 20 patients and predict: bone volume fraction (BV/TV); and trabecular (Tb) and cortical (Ct) thickness (Th), porosity (Po), and spacing (Sp).


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 8 | Pages 661 - 670
19 Aug 2021
Ajayi B Trompeter AJ Umarji S Saha P Arnander M Lui DF

Aims

The new COVID-19 variant was reported by the authorities of the UK to the World Health Organization (WHO) on 14 December 2020. We aim to describe the clinical characteristics and nosocomial infection rates in major trauma and orthopaedic patients comparing the first and second wave of COVID-19 infection.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of a prospectively collected trauma database was reviewed at a level 1 major trauma centre from 1 December 2020 to 18 February 2021 looking at demographics, clinical characteristics, and nosocomial infections and compared to our previously published first wave data (26 January 2020 to 14 April 2020).


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 1, Issue 6 | Pages 257 - 260
12 Jun 2020
Beschloss A Mueller J Caldwell JE Ha A Lombardi JM Ozturk A Lehman R Saifi C

Aims. Medical comorbidities are a critical factor in the decision-making process for operative management and risk-stratification. The Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCC) risk adjustment model is a powerful measure of illness severity for patients treated by surgeons. The HCC is utilized by Medicare to predict medical expenditure risk and to reimburse physicians accordingly. HCC weighs comorbidities differently to calculate risk. This study determines the prevalence of medical comorbidities and the average HCC score in Medicare patients being evaluated by neurosurgeons and orthopaedic surgeon, as well as a subset of academic spine surgeons within both specialities, in the USA. Methods. The Medicare Provider Utilization and Payment Database, which is based on data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services’ National Claims History Standard Analytic Files, was analyzed for this study. Every surgeon who submitted a valid Medicare Part B non-institutional claim during the 2013 calendar year was included in this study. This database was queried for medical comorbidities and HCC scores of each patient who had, at minimum, a single office visit with a surgeon. This data included 21,204 orthopaedic surgeons and 4,372 neurosurgeons across 54 states/territories in the USA. Results. Orthopaedic surgeons evaluated patients with a mean HCC of 1.21, while neurosurgeons evaluated patients with a mean HCC of 1.34 (p < 0.05). The rates of specific comorbidities in patients seen by orthopaedic surgeons/neurosurgeons is as follows: Ischemic heart disease (35%/39%), diabetes (31%/33%), depression (23%/31%), chronic kidney disease (19%/23%), and heart failure (17%/19%). Conclusion. Nationally, comorbidity rate and HCC value for these Medicare patients are higher than national averages for the US population, with ischemic heart disease being six-times higher, diabetes two-times higher, depression three- to four-times higher, chronic kidney disease three-times higher, and heart failure nine-times higher among patients evaluated by orthopaedic surgeons and neurosurgeons. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-6:257–260


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 1, Issue 9 | Pages 520 - 529
1 Sep 2020
Mackay ND Wilding CP Langley CR Young J

Aims. COVID-19 represents one of the greatest global healthcare challenges in a generation. Orthopaedic departments within the UK have shifted care to manage trauma in ways that minimize exposure to COVID-19. As the incidence of COVID-19 decreases, we explore the impact and risk factors of COVID-19 on patient outcomes within our department. Methods. We retrospectively included all patients who underwent a trauma or urgent orthopaedic procedure from 23 March to 23 April 2020. Electronic records were reviewed for COVID-19 swab results and mortality, and patients were screened by telephone a minimum 14 days postoperatively for symptoms of COVID-19. Results. A total of 214 patients had orthopaedic surgical procedures, with 166 included for analysis. Patients undergoing procedures under general or spinal anaesthesia had a higher risk of contracting perioperative COVID-19 compared to regional/local anaesthesia (p = 0.0058 and p = 0.0007, respectively). In all, 15 patients (9%) had a perioperative diagnosis of COVID-19, 14 of whom had fragility fractures; six died within 30 days of their procedure (40%, 30-day mortality). For proximal femoral fractures, our 30-day mortality was 18.2%, compared to 7% in 2019. Conclusion. Based on our findings, patients undergoing procedures under regional or local anaesthesia have minimal risk of developing COVID-19 perioperatively. Those with multiple comorbidities and fragility fractures have a higher morbidity and mortality if they contract COVID-19 perioperatively; therefore, protective care pathways could go some way to mitigate the risk. Our 30-day mortality of proximal femoral fractures was 18.2% during the COVID-19 pandemic in comparison to the annual national average of 6.1% in 2018 and the University Hospital Coventry average of 7% for the same period in 2019, as reported in the National Hip Fracture Database. Patients undergoing procedures under general or spinal anaesthesia at the peak of the pandemic had a higher risk of contracting perioperative COVID-19 compared to regional block or local anaesthesia. We question whether young patients undergoing day-case procedures under regional block or local anaesthesia with minimal comorbidities require fourteen days self-isolation; instead, we advocate that compliance with personal protective equipment, a negative COVID-19 swab three days prior to surgery, and screening questionnaire may be sufficient. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-9:520–529


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 1, Issue 7 | Pages 330 - 338
3 Jul 2020
Ajayi B Trompeter A Arnander M Sedgwick P Lui DF

Aims. The first death in the UK caused by COVID-19 occurred on 5 March 2020. We aim to describe the clinical characteristics and outcomes of major trauma and orthopaedic patients admitted in the early COVID-19 era. Methods. A prospective trauma registry was reviewed at a Level 1 Major Trauma Centre. We divided patients into Group A, 40 days prior to 5 March 2020, and into Group B, 40 days after. Results. A total of 657 consecutive trauma and orthopaedic patients were identified with a mean age of 55 years (8 to 98; standard deviation (SD) 22.52) and 393 (59.8%) were males. In all, 344 (approximately 50%) of admissions were major trauma. Group A had 421 patients, decreasing to 236 patients in Group B (36%). Mechanism of injury (MOI) was commonly a fall in 351 (52.4%) patients, but road traffic accidents (RTAs) increased from 56 (13.3%) in group A to 51 (21.6%) in group B (p = 0.030). ICU admissions decreased from 26 (6.2%) in group A to 5 (2.1%) in group B. Overall, 39 patients tested positive for COVID-19 with mean age of 73 years (28 to 98; SD 17.99) and 22 (56.4%) males. Common symptoms were dyspnoea, dry cough, and pyrexia. Of these patients, 27 (69.2%) were nosocomial infections and two (5.1%) of these patients required intensive care unit (ICU) admission with 8/39 mortality (20.5%). Of the patients who died, 50% were older and had underlying comorbidities (hypertension and cardiovascular disease, dementia, arthritis). Conclusion. Trauma admissions decreased in the lockdown phase with an increased incidence of RTAs. Nosocomial infection was common in 27 (69.2%) of those with COVID-19. Symptoms and comorbidities were consistent with previous reports with noted inclusion of dementia and arthritis. The mortality rate of trauma and COVID-19 was 20.5%, mainly in octogenarians, and COVID-19 surgical mortality was 15.4%. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-7:330–338


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 1, Issue 8 | Pages 450 - 456
1 Aug 2020
Zahra W Dixon JW Mirtorabi N Rolton DJ Tayton ER Hale PC Fisher WJ Barnes RJ Tunstill SA Iyer S Pollard TCB

Aims. To evaluate safety outcomes and patient satisfaction of the re-introduction of elective orthopaedic surgery on ‘green’ (non-COVID-19) sites during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods. A strategy consisting of phased relaxation of clinical comorbidity criteria was developed. Patients from the orthopaedic waiting list were selected according to these criteria and observed recommended preoperative isolation protocols. Surgery was performed at green sites (two local private hospitals) under the COVID-19 NHS contract. The first 100 consecutive patients that met the Phase 1 criteria and underwent surgery were included. In hospital and postoperative complications with specific enquiry as to development of COVID-19 symptoms or need and outcome for COVID-19 testing at 14 days and six weeks was recorded. Patient satisfaction was surveyed at 14 days postoperatively. Results. There were 54 females and 46 males (mean age 44 years, mean body mass index (BMI) 25.6 kg/m. 2. ). In all, 56 patients underwent major orthopaedic procedures. There were no exclusions. One patient had a postoperative positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test but had no typical symptoms of COVID-19 infection and no clinical sequelae. 99% of patients were satisfied with the process and 98% would recommend undergoing elective orthopaedic surgery in the study period. Conclusion. In an environment with appropriate infrastructure, patient selection, isolation, screening, and testing, elective orthopaedic surgery is safe during the COVID-19 pandemic, and associated with high patient satisfaction. Further follow-up is required to establish that safety is maintained as the clinical restrictions are eased with the phased approach described. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-8:450–456


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 1, Issue 9 | Pages 556 - 561
14 Sep 2020
Clough TM Shah N Divecha H Talwalkar S

Aims. The exact risk to patients undergoing surgery who develop COVID-19 is not yet fully known. This study aims to provide the current data to allow adequate consent regarding the risks of post-surgery COVID-19 infection and subsequent COVID-19-related mortality. Methods. All orthopaedic trauma cases at the Wrightington Wigan and Leigh NHS Foundation Trust from ‘lockdown’ (23 March 2020) to date (15 June 2020) were collated and split into three groups. Adult ambulatory trauma surgeries (upper limb trauma, ankle fracture, tibial plateau fracture) and regional-specific referrals (periprosthetic hip fracture) were performed at a stand-alone elective site that accepted COVID-19-negative patients. Neck of femur fractures (NOFF) and all remaining non-NOFF (paediatric trauma, long bone injury) surgeries were performed at an acute site hospital (mixed green/blue site). Patients were swabbed for COVID-19 before surgery on both sites. Age, sex, nature of surgery, American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade, associated comorbidity, length of stay, development of post-surgical COVID-19 infection, and post-surgical COVID-19-related deaths were collected. Results. At the elective site, 225 patients underwent orthopaedic trauma surgery; two became COVID-19-positive (0.9%) in the immediate perioperative period, neither of which was fatal. At the acute site, 93 patients underwent non-NOFF trauma surgery, of whom six became COVID-19-positive (6.5%) and three died. A further 84 patients underwent NOFF surgery, seven becoming COVID-19 positive (8.3%) and five died. Conclusion. At the elective site, the rate of COVID-19 infection following orthopaedic trauma surgery was low, at 0.9%. At the acute mixed site (typical district general hospital), for non-NOFF surgery there was a 6.5% incidence of post-surgical COVID-19 infection (seven-fold higher risk) with 50% COVID-19 mortality; for NOFF surgery, there was an 8.3% incidence of post-surgical COVID-19 infection, with 71% COVID-19 mortality. This is likely to have significance when planning a resumption of elective orthopaedic surgery and for consent to the patient. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-9:556–561


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 1, Issue 7 | Pages 392 - 397
13 Jul 2020
Karayiannis PN Roberts V Cassidy R Mayne AIW McAuley D Milligan DJ Diamond O

Aims. Now that we are in the deceleration phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, the focus has shifted to how to safely reinstate elective operating. Regional and speciality specific data is important to guide this decision-making process. This study aimed to review 30-day mortality for all patients undergoing orthopaedic surgery during the peak of the pandemic within our region. Methods. This multicentre study reviewed data on all patients undergoing trauma and orthopaedic surgery in a region from 18 March 2020 to 27 April 2020. Information was collated from regional databases. Patients were COVID-19-positive if they had positive laboratory testing and/or imaging consistent with the infection. 30-day mortality was assessed for all patients. Secondly, 30-day mortality in fracture neck of femur patients was compared to the same time period in 2019. Results. Overall, 496 operations were carried out in 484 patients. The overall 30-day mortality was 1.9%. Seven out of nine deceased patients underwent surgery for a fractured neck of femur. In all, 27 patients contracted COVID-19 in the peri-operative period; of these, four patients died within 30 days (14.8%). In addition, 21 of the 27 patients in this group had a fractured neck of femur, 22 were over the age of 70 years (81.5%). Patients with American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade > 3 and/or age > 75 years were at significantly higher risk of death if they contracted COVID-19 within the study period. Conclusion. Overall 30-day postoperative mortality in trauma and orthopaedic surgery patients remains low at 1.9%. There was no 30-day mortality in patients ASA 1 or 2. Patients with significant comorbidities, increasing age, and ASA 3 or above remain at the highest risk. For patients with COVID-19 infection, postoperative 30-day mortality was 14.8%. The reintroduction of elective services should consider individual patient risk profile (including for ASA grade). Effective postoperative strategies should also be employed to try and reduce postoperative exposure to the virus. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-7:392–397


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 2 | Pages 96 - 103
14 Feb 2023
Knowlson CN Brealey S Keding A Torgerson D Rangan A

Aims

Early large treatment effects can arise in small studies, which lessen as more data accumulate. This study aimed to retrospectively examine whether early treatment effects occurred for two multicentre orthopaedic randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and explore biases related to this.

Methods

Included RCTs were ProFHER (PROximal Fracture of the Humerus: Evaluation by Randomisation), a two-arm study of surgery versus non-surgical treatment for proximal humerus fractures, and UK FROST (United Kingdom Frozen Shoulder Trial), a three-arm study of two surgical and one non-surgical treatment for frozen shoulder. To determine whether early treatment effects were present, the primary outcome of Oxford Shoulder Score (OSS) was compared on forest plots for: the chief investigator’s (CI) site to the remaining sites, the first five sites opened to the other sites, and patients grouped in quintiles by randomization date. Potential for bias was assessed by comparing mean age and proportion of patients with indicators of poor outcome between included and excluded/non-consenting participants.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 8 | Pages 643 - 651
24 Aug 2023
Langit MB Tay KS Al-Omar HK Barlow G Bates J Chuo CB Muir R Sharma H

Aims

The standard of wide tumour-like resection for chronic osteomyelitis (COM) has been challenged recently by adequate debridement. This paper reviews the evolution of surgical debridement for long bone COM, and presents the outcome of adequate debridement in a tertiary bone infection unit.

Methods

We analyzed the retrospective record review from 2014 to 2020 of patients with long bone COM. All were managed by multidisciplinary infection team (MDT) protocol. Adequate debridement was employed for all cases, and no case of wide resection was included.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 7 | Pages 539 - 550
21 Jul 2023
Banducci E Al Muderis M Lu W Bested SR

Aims

Safety concerns surrounding osseointegration are a significant barrier to replacing socket prosthesis as the standard of care following limb amputation. While implanted osseointegrated prostheses traditionally occur in two stages, a one-stage approach has emerged. Currently, there is no existing comparison of the outcomes of these different approaches. To address safety concerns, this study sought to determine whether a one-stage osseointegration procedure is associated with fewer adverse events than the two-staged approach.

Methods

A comprehensive electronic search and quantitative data analysis from eligible studies were performed. Inclusion criteria were adults with a limb amputation managed with a one- or two-stage osseointegration procedure with follow-up reporting of complications.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 3, Issue 5 | Pages 359 - 366
1 May 2022
Sadekar V Watts AT Moulder E Souroullas P Hadland Y Barron E Muir R Sharma HK

Aims

The timing of when to remove a circular frame is crucial; early removal results in refracture or deformity, while late removal increases the patient morbidity and delay in return to work. This study was designed to assess the effectiveness of a staged reloading protocol. We report the incidence of mechanical failure following both single-stage and two stage reloading protocols and analyze the associated risk factors.

Methods

We identified consecutive patients from our departmental database. Both trauma and elective cases were included, of all ages, frame types, and pathologies who underwent circular frame treatment. Our protocol is either a single-stage or two-stage process implemented by defunctioning the frame, in order to progressively increase the weightbearing load through the bone, and promote full loading prior to frame removal. Before progression, through the process we monitor patients for any increase in pain and assess radiographs for deformity or refracture.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 10 | Pages 850 - 857
19 Oct 2021
Blankstein AR Houston BL Fergusson DA Houston DS Rimmer E Bohm E Aziz M Garland A Doucette S Balshaw R Turgeon A Zarychanski R

Aims

Orthopaedic surgeries are complex, frequently performed procedures associated with significant haemorrhage and perioperative blood transfusion. Given refinements in surgical techniques and changes to transfusion practices, we aim to describe contemporary transfusion practices in orthopaedic surgery in order to inform perioperative planning and blood banking requirements.

Methods

We performed a retrospective cohort study of adult patients who underwent orthopaedic surgery at four Canadian hospitals between 2014 and 2016. We studied all patients admitted to hospital for nonarthroscopic joint surgeries, amputations, and fracture surgeries. For each surgery and surgical subgroup, we characterized the proportion of patients who received red blood cell (RBC) transfusion, the mean/median number of RBC units transfused, and exposure to platelets and plasma.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 11 | Pages 951 - 957
16 Nov 2021
Chuntamongkol R Meen R Nash S Ohly NE Clarke J Holloway N

Aims

The aim of this study was to surveil whether the standard operating procedure created for the NHS Golden Jubilee sufficiently managed COVID-19 risk to allow safe resumption of elective orthopaedic surgery.

Methods

This was a prospective study of all elective orthopaedic patients within an elective unit running a green pathway at a COVID-19 light site. Rates of preoperative and 30-day postoperative COVID-19 symptoms or infection were examined for a period of 40 weeks. The unit resumed elective orthopaedic services on 29 June 2020 at a reduced capacity for a limited number of day-case procedures with strict patient selection criteria, increasing to full service on 29 August 2020 with no patient selection criteria.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 3, Issue 1 | Pages 42 - 53
14 Jan 2022
Asopa V Sagi A Bishi H Getachew F Afzal I Vyrides Y Sochart D Patel V Kader D

Aims

There is little published on the outcomes after restarting elective orthopaedic procedures following cessation of surgery due to the COVID-19 pandemic. During the pandemic, the reported perioperative mortality in patients who acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection while undergoing elective orthopaedic surgery was 18% to 20%. The aim of this study is to report the surgical outcomes, complications, and risk of developing COVID-19 in 2,316 consecutive patients who underwent elective orthopaedic surgery in the latter part of 2020 and comparing it to the same, pre-pandemic, period in 2019.

Methods

A retrospective service evaluation of patients who underwent elective surgical procedures between 16 June 2020 and 12 December 2020 was undertaken. The number and type of cases, demographic details, American society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade, BMI, 30-day readmission rates, mortality, and complications at one- and six-week intervals were obtained and compared with patients who underwent surgery during the same six-month period in 2019.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 9 | Pages 721 - 727
1 Sep 2021
Zargaran A Zargaran D Trompeter AJ

Aims

Orthopaedic infection is a potentially serious complication of elective and emergency trauma and orthopaedic procedures, with a high associated burden of morbidity and cost. Optimization of vitamin D levels has been postulated to be beneficial in the prevention of orthopaedic infection. This study explores the role of vitamin D in orthopaedic infection through a systematic review of available evidence.

Methods

A comprehensive search was conducted on databases including Medline and Embase, as well as grey literature such as Google Scholar and The World Health Organization Database. Pooled analysis with weighted means was undertaken.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 7 | Pages 493 - 502
12 Jul 2021
George SZ Yan X Luo S Olson SA Reinke EK Bolognesi MP Horn ME

Aims

Patient-reported outcome measures have become an important part of routine care. The aim of this study was to determine if Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) measures can be used to create patient subgroups for individuals seeking orthopaedic care.

Methods

This was a cross-sectional study of patients from Duke University Department of Orthopaedic Surgery clinics (14 ambulatory and four hospital-based). There were two separate cohorts recruited by convenience sampling (i.e. patients were included in the analysis only if they completed PROMIS measures during a new patient visit). Cohort #1 (n = 12,141; December 2017 to December 2018,) included PROMIS short forms for eight domains (Physical Function, Pain Interference, Pain Intensity, Depression, Anxiety, Sleep Quality, Participation in Social Roles, and Fatigue) and Cohort #2 (n = 4,638; January 2019 to August 2019) included PROMIS Computer Adaptive Testing instruments for four domains (Physical Function, Pain Interference, Depression, and Sleep Quality). Cluster analysis (K-means method) empirically derived subgroups and subgroup differences in clinical and sociodemographic factors were identified with one-way analysis of variance.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 2 | Pages 134 - 140
24 Feb 2021
Logishetty K Edwards TC Subbiah Ponniah H Ahmed M Liddle AD Cobb J Clark C

Aims

Restarting planned surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic is a clinical and societal priority, but it is unknown whether it can be done safely and include high-risk or complex cases. We developed a Surgical Prioritization and Allocation Guide (SPAG). Here, we validate its effectiveness and safety in COVID-free sites.

Methods

A multidisciplinary surgical prioritization committee developed the SPAG, incorporating procedural urgency, shared decision-making, patient safety, and biopsychosocial factors; and applied it to 1,142 adult patients awaiting orthopaedic surgery. Patients were stratified into four priority groups and underwent surgery at three COVID-free sites, including one with access to a high dependency unit (HDU) or intensive care unit (ICU) and specialist resources. Safety was assessed by the number of patients requiring inpatient postoperative HDU/ICU admission, contracting COVID-19 within 14 days postoperatively, and mortality within 30 days postoperatively.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 2 | Pages 103 - 110
1 Feb 2021
Oussedik S MacIntyre S Gray J McMeekin P Clement ND Deehan DJ

Aims

The primary aim is to estimate the current and potential number of patients on NHS England orthopaedic elective waiting lists by November 2020. The secondary aims are to model recovery strategies; review the deficit of hip and knee arthroplasty from National Joint Registry (NJR) data; and assess the cost of returning to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers.

Methods

A model of referral, waiting list, and eventual surgery was created and calibrated using historical data from NHS England (April 2017 to March 2020) and was used to investigate the possible consequences of unmet demand resulting from fewer patients entering the treatment pathway and recovery strategies. NJR data were used to estimate the deficit of hip and knee arthroplasty by August 2020 and NHS tariff costs were used to calculate the financial burden.