Aims. Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a common complication after elbow trauma and can cause severe upper limb disability. Although multiple prognostic factors have been reported to be associated with the development of post-traumatic HO, no model has yet been able to combine these predictors more succinctly to convey prognostic information and medical measures to patients. Therefore, this study aimed to identify prognostic factors leading to the formation of HO after surgery for elbow trauma, and to establish and validate a nomogram to predict the probability of HO formation in such particular injuries. Methods. This multicentre case-control study comprised 200 patients with post-traumatic elbow HO and 229 patients who had elbow trauma but without HO formation between July 2019 and December 2020. Features possibly associated with HO formation were obtained. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize feature selection. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build the new nomogram: the Shanghai post-Traumatic Elbow Heterotopic Ossification Prediction model (STEHOP). STEHOP was validated by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. Male sex, obesity, open wound, dislocations, late definitive surgical treatment, and lack of use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were identified as adverse predictors and incorporated to construct the STEHOP model. It displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.84). A high C-index value of 0.77 could still be reached in the internal validation. The calibration plot showed good agreement between nomogram prediction and observed outcomes. Conclusion. The newly developed STEHOP model is a valid and convenient instrument to predict HO formation after surgery for elbow trauma. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding treatment expectations and therapeutic choices. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):963–971

In recent years, machine learning (ML) and artificial neural networks (ANNs), a particular subset of ML, have been adopted by various areas of healthcare. A number of diagnostic and prognostic algorithms have been designed and implemented across a range of orthopaedic sub-specialties to date, with many positive results. However, the methodology of many of these studies is flawed, and few compare the use of ML with the current approach in clinical practice. Spinal surgery has advanced rapidly over the past three decades, particularly in the areas of implant technology, advanced surgical techniques, biologics, and enhanced recovery protocols. It is therefore regarded an innovative field. Inevitably, spinal surgeons will wish to incorporate ML into their practice should models prove effective in diagnostic or prognostic terms. The purpose of this article is to review published studies that describe the application of neural networks to spinal surgery and which actively compare ANN models to contemporary clinical standards allowing evaluation of their efficacy, accuracy, and relatability. It also explores some of the limitations of the technology, which act to constrain the widespread adoption of neural networks for diagnostic and prognostic use in spinal care. Finally, it describes the necessary considerations should institutions wish to incorporate ANNs into their practices. In doing so, the aim of this review is to provide a practical approach for spinal surgeons to understand the relevant aspects of neural networks. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(9):1442–1448

Aims. The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a prognostic nomogram to predict the probability of gaining a functional range of motion (ROM ≥ 120°) after open arthrolysis of the elbow in patients with post-traumatic stiffness of the elbow. Methods. We developed the Shanghai Prediction Model for Elbow Stiffness Surgical Outcome (SPESSO) based on a dataset of 551 patients who underwent open arthrolysis of the elbow in four institutions. Demographic and clinical characteristics were collected from medical records. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize the selection of relevant features. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to build the SPESSO. Its prediction performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and a calibration graph. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. BMI, the duration of stiffness, the preoperative ROM, the preoperative intensity of pain, and grade of post-traumatic osteoarthritis of the elbow were identified as predictors of outcome and incorporated to construct the nomogram. SPESSO displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.73 (95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.81). A high C-index value of 0.70 could still be reached in the interval validation. The calibration graph showed good agreement between the nomogram prediction and the outcome. Conclusion. The newly developed SPESSO is a valid and convenient model which can be used to predict the outcome of open arthrolysis of the elbow. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding the choice and expectations of treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):486–494

Aims. The study aimed to assess the clinical outcomes of arthroscopic debridement and partial excision in patients with traumatic central tears of the triangular fibrocartilage complex (TFCC), and to identify prognostic factors associated with unfavourable clinical outcomes. Methods. A retrospective analysis was conducted on patients arthroscopically diagnosed with Palmer 1 A lesions who underwent arthroscopic debridement and partial excision from March 2009 to February 2021, with a minimum follow-up of 24 months. Patients were assessed using the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) questionnaire, Mayo Wrist Score (MWS), and visual analogue scale (VAS) for pain. The poor outcome group was defined as patients whose preoperative and last follow-up clinical score difference was less than the minimal clinically important difference of the DASH score (10.83). Baseline characteristics, arthroscopic findings, and radiological factors (ulnar variance, MRI, or arthrography) were evaluated to predict poor clinical outcomes. Results. A total of 114 patients were enrolled in this study, with a mean follow-up period of 29.8 months (SD 14.4). The mean DASH score improved from 36.5 (SD 21.5) to 16.7 (SD 14.3), the mean MWS from 59.7 (SD 17.9) to 79.3 (SD 14.3), and the mean VAS pain score improved from 5.9 (SD 1.8) to 2.2 (SD 2.0) at the last follow-up (all p < 0.001). Among the 114 patients, 16 (14%) experienced poor clinical outcomes and ten (8.8%) required secondary ulnar shortening osteotomy. Positive ulnar variance was the only factor significantly associated with poor clinical outcomes (p < 0.001). Positive ulnar variance was present in 38 patients (33%); among them, eight patients (21%) required additional operations. Conclusion. Arthroscopic debridement alone appears to be an effective and safe initial treatment for patients with traumatic central TFCC tears. The presence of positive ulnar variance was associated with poor clinical outcomes, but close observation after arthroscopic debridement is more likely to be recommended than ulnar shortening osteotomy as a primary treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(4):380–386

Aims. The modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) uses preoperative CRP and albumin to calculate a score from 0 to 2 (2 being associated with poor outcomes). mGPS is validated in multiple carcinomas. To date, its use in soft-tissue sarcoma (STS) is limited, with only small cohorts reporting that increased mGPS scores correlates with decreased survival in STS patients. Methods. This retrospective multicentre cohort study identified 493 STS patients using clinical databases from six collaborating hospitals in three countries. Centres performed a retrospective data collection for patient demographics, preoperative blood results (CRP and albumin levels and neutrophil, leucocyte, and platelets counts), and oncological outcomes (disease-free survival, local, or metastatic recurrence) with a minimum of two years' follow-up. Results. We found that increased mGPS, tumour size, grade, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, and disease recurrence were associated with reduced survival. Importantly, mGPS was the best at stratifying prognosis and could be used in conjunction with tumour grade to sub-stratify patient survival. Conclusion. This study demonstrated that prognosis of localized STS strongly correlates with mGPS, as an increasing score is associated with a poorer outcome. We note that 203 patients (41%) with an STS have evidence of systemic inflammation. We recommend the mGPS and other biochemical blood indicators be introduced into the routine diagnostic assessment in STS patients to stratify patient prognosis. Its use will support clinical decision-making, especially when morbid treatment options such as amputation are being considered. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(1):168–176

Aims. The early mortality in patients with hip fractures from bony metastases is unknown. The objectives of this study were to quantify 30- and 90-day mortality in patients with proximal femoral metastases, and to create a mortality prediction tool based on biomarkers associated with early death. Methods. This was a retrospective cohort study of consecutive patients referred to the orthopaedic department at a UK trauma centre with a proximal femoral metastasis (PFM) over a seven-year period (2010 to 2016). The study group were compared to a matched control group of non-metastatic hip fractures. Minimum follow-up was one year. Results. There was a 90-day mortality of 46% in patients with metastatic hip fractures versus 12% in controls (89/195 and 24/192, respectively; p < 0.001). Mean time to surgery was longer in symptomatic metastases versus complete fractures (9.5 days (SD 19.8) and 3.4 days (SD 11.4), respectively; p < 0.05). Albumin, urea, and corrected calcium were all independent predictors of early mortality and were used to generate a simple tool for predicting 90-day mortality, titled the Metastatic Early Prognostic (MEP) score. An MEP score of 0 was associated with the lowest risk of death at 30 days (14%, 3/21), 90 days (19%, 4/21), and one year (62%, 13/21). MEP scores of 3/4 were associated with the highest risk of death at 30 days (56%, 5/9), 90 days (100%, 9/9), and one year (100%, 9/9). Neither age nor primary cancer diagnosis was an independent predictor of mortality at 30 and 90 days. Conclusion. This score could be used to predict early mortality and guide perioperative counselling. The delay to surgery identifies a potential window to intervene and correct these abnormalities with the aim of improving survival. Cite this article: Bone Joint J. 2020;102-B(1):72–81

Between 1992 and 1999, we treated 350 patients with skeletal metastases. A multivariable analysis of the patients was conducted using the Cox proportional hazards model. We identified five significant prognostic factors for survival, namely, the site of the primary lesion, the performance status (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group status 3 or 4), the presence of visceral or cerebral metastases, any previous chemotherapy, and multiple skeletal metastases. The score for each significant factor was derived from the corresponding estimated regression coefficients (natural logarithm of the hazard ratio). The prognostic score was calculated by adding all the scores for individual factors. The rate of survival was 31% at six months and 11% at one year for the patients with a prognostic score of 6 or more. By contrast, patients with a prognostic score of 2 or less had a rate of survival of 98% at six months and 89% at one year. This scoring system can be used to determine the optimal treatment for patients with pathological fractures or epidural compression

Aims. The purpose of this study was to identify prognostic indicators of outcome at presentation to the orthopaedic surgeon, in patients with metastatic prostate cancer. Our aim was to use this information in a pragmatic, clinic-based approach so that surgical decision making could be optimized to benefit the patient in their remaining lifetime. Patients and Methods. A cohort analysis was undertaken of all patients with metastatic disease of the prostate who presented to a regional orthopaedic centre in the United Kingdom between 2003 and 2016. Biochemical data were collected in addition to disease and demographic data. These included: prostate-specific antigen (PSA) at orthopaedic presentation; haemoglobin (Hb); platelets (plt); alkaline phosphatase (ALP); albumin (Alb); and corrected calcium (CaC). Statistical analysis included Kaplan–Meier survival analysis, and a Cox proportional hazards model was fitted to the data. Results. From the departmental database, 137 episodes were identified in 136 patients with a median age at presentation of 72 years (interquartile range (IQR) 66 to 78). Most patients had stage IV disease (n = 98, 72%), and most did not undergo surgical intervention. At one-year follow-up, 50% of patients had died. Biomarkers found to be independently associated with poor survival were: low Hb, low Alb, relatively low PSA (< 30 mmol/l), and a raised ALP. Patients who needed surgical intervention had a poorer survival rate than patients who were managed nonoperatively. Conclusion. The study findings are important for orthopaedic clinical practice in the management of patients with metastatic prostate cancer. The interpretation of routine blood tests can help to predict survival in patients who present with orthopaedic manifestations of prostate cancer. A lower PSA is not necessarily a good prognostic sign. We believe that simple blood testing should be carried out routinely when assessing a patient, guiding potential surgical management and palliative care in the future

A small proportion of children with Gartland type III supracondylar humeral fracture (SCHF) experience troubling limited or delayed recovery after operative treatment. We hypothesised that the fracture level relative to the isthmus of the humerus would affect the outcome. We retrospectively reviewed 230 children who underwent closed reduction and percutaneous pinning (CRPP) for their Gartland type III SCHFs between March 2003 and December 2012. There were 144 boys and 86 girls, with the mean age of six years (1.1 to 15.2). The clinico-radiological characteristics and surgical outcomes (recovery of the elbow range of movement, post-operative angulation, and the final Flynn grade) were recorded. Multivariate analysis was employed to identify prognostic factors that influenced outcome, including fracture level. Multivariate analysis revealed that a fracture below the humeral isthmus was significantly associated with poor prognosis in terms of the range of elbow movement (p < 0.001), angulation (p = 0.001) and Flynn grade (p = 0.003). Age over ten years was also a poor prognostic factor for recovery of the range of elbow movement (p = 0.027). This is the first study demonstrating a subclassification system of Gartland III fractures with prognostic significance. This will guide surgeons in peri-operative planning and counselling as well as directing future research aimed at improving outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:134–40

Aims. Spinal tuberculosis (TB) remains an important concern. Although spinal TB often has sequelae such as myelopathy after treatment, the predictive factors affecting such unfavourable outcomes are not yet established. We investigated the clinical manifestations and predictors of unfavourable treatment outcomes in patients with spinal TB. Patients and Methods. We performed a multicentre retrospective cohort study of patients with spinal TB. Unfavourable outcome was defined according to previous studies. The prognostic factors for unfavourable outcomes as the primary outcome were determined using multivariable logistic regression analysis and a linear mixed model was used to compare time course of inflammatory markers during treatment. A total of 185 patients were included, of whom 59 patients had unfavourable outcomes. Results. In multivariate regression analysis, the factors associated with unfavourable outcome were old age (odds ratio (OR) 2.51; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07 to 5.86; p = 0.034), acid-fast bacilli (AFB) smear positivity in specimens obtained through biopsy (OR 3.05; 95% CI 1.06 to 8.80; p = 0.039), and elevated erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) at the end of treatment (OR 3.85; 95% CI 1.62 to 9.13; p = 0.002). Patients with unfavourable outcomes had a significant trend toward higher ESR during treatment compared with patients with favourable outcome (p = 0.009). Duration of anti-TB and surgical treatment did not affect prognosis. Conclusion. Elevated ESR at the end of treatment could be used as a marker to identify spinal TB patients with a poor prognosis. Patients whose ESR is not normalized during treatment, as well as those with old age and AFB smear positivity, should be aware of unfavourable outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1542–1549

The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic and therapeutic factors which influence the oncological outcome of parosteal osteosarcoma. A total of 80 patients with a primary parosteal osteosarcoma were included in this retrospective study. There were 51 females and 29 males with a mean age of 29.9 years (11 to 78). The mean follow-up was 11.2 years (1 to 40). Overall survival was 91.8% at five years and 87.8% at ten years. Local recurrence occurred in 14 (17.5%) patients and was associated with intralesional surgery and a large volume of tumour. On histological examination, 80% of the local recurrences were dedifferentiated high-grade tumours. A total of 12 (14.8%) patients developed pulmonary metastases, of whom half had either a dedifferentiated tumour or a local recurrence. Female gender and young age were good prognostic factors. Local recurrence was a poor prognostic factor for survival. Medullary involvement or the use of chemotherapy had no impact on survival. The main goal in treating a parosteal osteosarcoma must be to achieve a wide surgical margin, as inadequate margins are associated with local recurrence. Local recurrence has a significant negative effect on survival, as 80% of the local recurrences are high-grade dedifferentiated tumours, and half of these patients develop metastases. The role of chemotherapy in the treatment of parosteal osteosarcoma is not as obvious as it is in the treatment of conventional osteosarcoma. The mainstay of treatment is wide local excision. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:1698–1703

The aim of this study was to determine whether the high-sensitivity modified Glasgow prognostic score (Hs-mGPS) could predict the disease-specific survival and oncological outcome in adult patients with non-metastatic soft-tissue sarcoma before treatment. A total of 139 patients treated between 2001 and 2012 were retrospectively reviewed. The Hs-mGPS varied between 0 and 2. Patients with a score of 2 had a poorer disease-specific survival than patients with a score of 0 (p < 0.001). The estimated five-year rate of disease-specific survival for those with a score of 2 was 0%, compared with 85.4% (95% CI 77.3 to 93.5) for those with a score of 0. Those with a score of 2 also had a poorer disease-specific survival than those with a score of 1 (75.3%, 95% CI 55.8 to 94.8; p < 0.001). Patients with a score of 2 also had a poorer event-free rate than those with a score of 0 (p < 0.001). Those with a score of 2 also had a poorer event-free survival than did those with a score of 1 (p = 0.03). A multivariate analysis showed that the Hs-mGPS remained an independent predictor of survival and recurrence. The Hs-mGPS could be a useful prognostic marker in patients with a soft-tissue sarcoma. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015; 97-B:847–52

This nationwide prospective study was designed to determine prognostic factors and evaluate the outcome of different treatments of Perthes’ disease. A total of 28 hospitals in Norway were instructed to report all new cases of Perthes’ disease over a period of five years and 425 patients were reported and followed for five years. Of these, 368 with unilateral disease were included in the present study. The hips were classified radiologically according to a modified two-group Catterall classification and the lateral pillar classification. A total of 358 patients (97%) attended the five-year follow-up, when a modified three-group Stulberg classification was used as a radiological outcome measure. For patients over six years of age at diagnosis and with more than 50% necrosis of the femoral head (152 patients), the surgeons at the different hospitals had chosen one of three methods of treatment: physiotherapy (55 patients), the Scottish Rite abduction orthosis (26), and proximal femoral varus osteotomy (71). Of these hips, 146 (96%) were available for the five-year follow-up. The strongest predictor of outcome was femoral head involvement of more or less than 50% (odds ratio (OR) = 7.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.82 to 21.37), followed by age at diagnosis (OR = 0.98, 95% CI 0.92 to 0.99) and the lateral pillar classification (OR = 0.62, 95% CI 0.40 to 0.98). In children over six years at diagnosis with more than 50% of femoral head necrosis, proximal femoral varus osteotomy gave a significantly better outcome than orthosis (p = 0.001) or physiotherapy (p = 0.001). There was no significant difference between the physiotherapy and orthosis groups (p = 0.36), and we found no difference in outcome after any of the treatments in children under six years (p = 0.73). We recommend proximal femoral varus osteotomy in children aged six years and over at the time of diagnosis with hips having more than 50% femoral head necrosis. The abduction orthosis should be abandoned in Perthes’ disease

In a retrospective study of all 137 patients with soft-tissue sarcoma treated by surgery between 1972 and 1984, the clinical course was related to several host and tumour features, including the Surgical Staging System of Enneking, Spanier and Goodman (1980). Only patients free from metastasis with untreated primary lesions on admission were included. According to the Surgical Staging System, nine tumours were IA, 18 IB, 38 IIA and 72 IIB. Only 12 patients underwent amputation; 125 were treated by local surgery. The mean follow-up time was ten years (minimum five). For the whole series the probability of seven-year survival was 0.65; 42 patients (31%) died from tumour disease. All these had metastases and 24 also had local recurrence. The local recurrence rate was 36%. Multivariate analysis identified large tumour size and high histological grade as significant risk factors for metastatic disease and tumour-related death. Sex, age, tumour site, surgical margin and local recurrence showed no correlation with survival. The prognostic contribution of compartmentality was virtually nil. Histological grade combined with tumour size was found to give better prognostic information than that obtained by the Surgical Staging System

The aim of this study was to determine whether the level of circulating C-reactive protein (CRP) before treatment predicted overall disease-specific survival and local tumour control in patients with a sarcoma of bone. We retrospectively reviewed 318 patients who presented with a primary sarcoma of bone between 2003 and 2010. Those who presented with metastases and/or local recurrence were excluded. Elevated CRP levels were seen in 84 patients before treatment; these patients had a poorer disease-specific survival (57% at five years) than patients with a normal CRP (79% at five years) (p < 0.0001). They were also less likely to be free of recurrence (71% at five years) than patients with a normal CRP (79% at five years) (p = 0.04). Multivariate analysis showed the pre-operative CRP level to be an independent predictor of survival and local control. Patients with a Ewing’s sarcoma or chondrosarcoma who had an elevated CRP before their treatment started had a significantly poorer disease-specific survival than patients with a normal CRP (p = 0.02 and p < 0.0001, respectively). Patients with a conventional osteosarcoma and a raised CRP were at an increased risk of poorer local control. We recommend that CRP levels are measured routinely in patients with a suspected sarcoma of bone as a further prognostic indicator of survival. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:411–18

We investigated the rates of expression of bone morphogenetic protein-2 (BMP-2) in 29 adult patients with high-grade malignant fibrous histiocytoma of soft tissue, using the BMP-2-specific monoclonal antibody, AbH3b2/17, and found that they ranged from 1.9% to 78.9%. The survival at five years of the groups expressing high (≥30%) and low (< 30%) levels of BMP-2 was 85.7% and 36.3%, respectively. Multivariable analysis showed that only BMP-2 had prognostic significance for continuous disease-free survival and for overall survival (p < 0.05). Our findings indicate that over-expression of BMP-2 in malignant fibrous histiocytoma of soft tissue is the most reliable prognostic indicator of the parameters assessed

Aims. The aim of this paper was to investigate the prognostic factors for local recurrence in patients with pathological fracture through giant cell tumours of bone (GCTB). Patients and Methods. A total of 107 patients presenting with fractures through GCTB treated at our institution (Royal Orthopaedic Hospital, Birmingham, United Kingdom) between 1995 and 2016 were retrospectively studied. Of these patients, 57 were female (53%) and 50 were male (47%).The mean age at diagnosis was 33 years (14 to 86). A univariate analysis was performed, followed by multivariate analysis to identify risk factors based on the treatment and clinical characteristics. Results. The initial surgical treatment was curettage with or without adjuvants in 55 patients (51%), en bloc resection with or without reconstruction in 45 patients (42%), and neoadjuvant denosumab, followed by resection (n = 3, 3%) or curettage (n = 4, 4%). The choice of treatment depended on tumour location, Campanacci tumour staging, intra-articular involvement, and fracture displacement. Neoadjuvant denosumab was used only in fractures through Campanacci stage 3 tumours. Local recurrence occurred in 28 patients (25%). Surgery more than six weeks after the fracture did not affect the risk of recurrence in any of the groups. In Campanacci stage 3 tumours not treated with denosumab, en bloc resection had lower local recurrences (13%), compared with curettage (39%). In tumours classified as Campanacci 2, intralesional curettage and en bloc resections had similar recurrence rates (21% and 24%, respectively). After univariate analysis, the type of surgical intervention, location, and the use of denosumab were independent factors predicting local recurrence. Further surgery was required 33% more often after intralesional curettage in comparison with resections (mean 1.59, 0 to 5 vs 1.06, 0 to 3 operations). All patients treated with denosumab followed by intralesional curettage developed local recurrence. Conclusion. In patients with pathological fractures through GCTB not treated with denosumab, en bloc resection offers lower risks of local recurrence in tumours classified as Campanacci stage 3. Curettage or resections are both similar options in terms of the risk of local recurrence for tumours classified as Campanacci stage 2. The benefits of denosumab followed by intralesional curettage in these patients still remains unclear

McFarland fractures of the medial malleolus in children, also classified as Salter–Harris Type III and IV fractures, are associated with a high incidence of premature growth plate arrest. In order to identify prognostic factors for the development of complications we reviewed 20 children with a McFarland fracture that was treated surgically, at a mean follow-up of 8.9 years (3.5 to 17.4). Seven children (35%) developed premature growth arrest with angular deformity. The mean American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Society Ankle-Hindfoot Scale for all patients was 98.3 (87 to 100) and the mean modified Weber protocol was 1.15 (0 to 5). There was a significant correlation between initial displacement (p = 0.004) and operative delay (p = 0.007) with premature growth arrest. Both risk factors act independently and additively, such that all children with both risk factors developed premature arrest whereas children with no risk factor did not. We recommend that fractures of the medial malleolus in children should be treated by anatomical reduction and screw fixation within one day of injury. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:419–23

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We conducted a study to identify factors that are prognostic of the outcome of extracorporeal shockwave therapy (ESWT) for calcific tendinitis of the shoulder.

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Surgical intervention in patients with bone metastases from breast cancer is dependent on the estimated survival of the patient. The purpose of this paper was to identify factors that would predict survival so that specific decisions could be made in terms of surgical (or non-surgical) management.

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The aims of this study were to describe the course of non-operatively managed, bilateral Perthes’ disease, and to determine specific prognostic factors for the radiographic and clinical outcome.

We reviewed 87 patients who had undergone expansive cervical laminoplasty between 1999 and 2005. These were divided into two groups: those who had diabetes mellitus and those who did not. There were 31 patients in the diabetes group and 56 in the control group. Although a significant improvement in the Japanese Orthopaedic Association score was seen in both groups, the post-operative recovery rate in the control group was better than that of the diabetic group. The patients’ age and symptom duration adversely affected the rate of recovery in the diabetic group only. Smoking did not affect the outcome in either group. A logistic regression analysis found diabetes and signal changes in the spinal cord on MRI to be significant risk factors for a poor outcome (odds ratio 2.86, 3.02, respectively). Furthermore, the interaction of diabetes with smoking and/or age increased this risk.

We conclude that diabetes mellitus, or the interaction of this with old age, can adversely affect outcome after cervical laminoplasty. However, smoking alone cannot be regarded as a risk factor.

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The aim of this study was to explore risk factors for complications associated with dural tear (DT), including the types of DT, and the intra- and postoperative management of DT.

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This study aims to assess first, whether mutations in the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and Kirsten rat sarcoma (kRAS) genes are associated with overall survival (OS) in patients who present with symptomatic bone metastases from non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and secondly, whether mutation status should be incorporated into prognostic models that are used when deciding on the appropriate palliative treatment for symptomatic bone metastases.

Between 1987 and 2006 we performed a modified Thompson’s quadricepsplasty on 40 fracture-related stiff knees and followed the patients for a mean of 7.9 years (2 to 11.1). The factors affecting the final gain of movement were investigated. A total of 15 knees required lengthening of the rectus femoris. The mean flexion gain was 70.2° (42.3° to 112.5°). According to Judet’s criteria, the results were excellent in 30 knees, good in seven, and fair in three. The range of movement which was achieved intra-operatively was related to the gain of knee flexion on univariate analysis. Five patients had complications: deep infection in one, recurrent patellar dislocation in one, and rupture of the extensor mechanism in three. This modified technique gives satisfactory results. Achieving maximum knee flexion intra-operatively seems to be the most important factor in enhancing the outcome in patients with stiffness of the knee following fracture.

We performed a prospective study in 186 patients with a minimum follow-up of two years in order to attempt to predict successful major re-implantation of the upper limb. There were 137 men and 49 women with 24 amputations of the palm, 75 of the wrist, 50 of the forearm, 9 disarticulations through the elbow, and 28 amputations through the upper arm.

The degree of injury to the amputated segment and the stump were good predictors of the rate of success and the final outcome. Adequate preservation, contraction of the muscle in the amputated part after stimulation, the level of injury and a smoking habit were fair indicators, but the serum potassium concentration in the amputated segment was the best objective predictor. When it is higher than 6.5 mmol/l 30 minutes after re-perfusion, re-implantation should be avoided. A high systemic venous serum potassium concentration was also found before clinical signs of the re-perfusion syndrome were seen.

One hundred and eighty-three conservative amputations of some part of the foot in 161 patients with gangrene from diabetes or arteriosclerosis have been studied retrospectively. They constituted 48 per cent of all amputations in one orthopaedic service over a period of twelve years, during which the minimal feasible procedure was always chosen. Sixty per cent healed soundly, but in over a third of these cases at least one revision to a higher level on the foot had been required. Factors that significantly influenced the outcome of the initial operation were the level of amputation, the age of the patient, the interval between the onset of gangrene and operation, anaemia and pyrexia.

Both conservative and operative forms of treatment have been recommended for patients with a ‘floating shoulder’. We compared the results of conservative and operative treatment in 25 patients with this injury and investigated the use of the glenopolar angle (GPA) as an indicator of the functional outcome. A total of 13 patients (ten male and three female; mean age 32.5 years (24.7 to 40.4)) were treated conservatively and 12 patients (ten male and two female; mean age 33.67 years (24.6 to 42.7)) were treated operatively by fixation of the clavicular fracture alone. Outcome was assessed using the Herscovici score, which was also related to changes in the GPA at one year post-operatively.

The mean Herscovici score was significantly better three months and two years after the injury in the operative group (p < 0.001 and p = 0.003, respectively). There was a negative correlation between the change in GPA and the Herscovici score at two years follow-up in both the conservative and operative groups, but neither were statistically significant (r = -0.295 and r = -0.19, respectively). There was a significant difference between the pre- and post-operative GPA in the operative group (p = 0.017).

When compared with conservative treatment, fixation of the clavicle alone gives better results in the treatment of patients with a floating shoulder. The GPA changes significantly with fixation of clavicle alone but there is no significant correlation between the pre-injury GPA and the final clinical outcome in these patients.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:815–19.

Aims. Low-grade central osteosarcoma (LGCOS), a rare type of osteosarcoma, often has misleading radiological and pathological features that overlap with those of other bone tumours, thereby complicating diagnosis and treatment. We aimed to analyze the clinical, radiological, and pathological features of patients with LGCOS, with a focus on diagnosis, treatment, and outcomes. Methods. We retrospectively analyzed the medical records of 49 patients with LGCOS (Broder’s grade 1 to 2) treated between January 1985 and December 2017 in a single institute. We examined the presence of malignant features on imaging (periosteal reaction, cortical destruction, soft-tissue invasion), the diagnostic accuracy of biopsy, surgical treatment, and oncological outcome. Results. Based on imaging, 35 of 49 patients (71.4%) exhibited malignant features. Overall, 40 of 49 patients (81.6%) had undergone a biopsy before en-bloc resection: 27 of 40 patients (67.5%) were diagnosed on the first biopsy, which was more accurate when carried out by open rather than needle biopsy (91.3% vs 35.3% diagnostic accuracy, respectively; p < 0.001). Of the 40 patients treated by en-bloc resection, surgical margins were wide in 38 (95.0%) and marginal in two (5.0%). Furthermore, nine of 49 patients (18.4%) underwent curettage (intralesional margin) without previous biopsy. All patients with a positive margin developed local recurrence. Distant metastases occurred in five of 49 patients (10.2%). The mean five-year overall survival (OS) and distant relapse-free survival (D-RFS) were 89.3% (SD 5.1%) and 85.7% (SD 5.5%), respectively. Univariate analysis showed that the occurrence of distant metastasis was a poor prognostic factor for OS (hazard ratio 11.54, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.92 to 69.17; p < 0.001). Local recurrence was a poor prognostic factor for D-RFS (HR 8.72, 95% CI 1.69 to 45.0; p = 0.002). Conclusion. The diagnosis of LGCOS can be challenging because it may present with non-malignant features and has a low diagnostic accuracy on biopsy. If precisely diagnosed, LGCOS can be successfully treated by surgical excision with wide margins. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(1):99–106

Aims. The aim of this study was to estimate time to arthroplasty among patients with hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA), and to identify factors at enrolment to first-line intervention that are prognostic for progression to surgery. Methods. In this longitudinal register-based observational study, we identified 72,069 patients with hip and knee OA in the Better Management of Patients with Osteoarthritis Register (BOA), who were referred for first-line OA intervention, between May 2008 and December 2016. Patients were followed until the first primary arthroplasty surgery before 31 December 2016, stratified into a hip and a knee OA cohort. Data were analyzed with Kaplan-Meier and multivariable-adjusted Cox regression. Results. At five years, Kaplan-Meier estimates showed that 46% (95% confidence interval (CI) 44.6 to 46.9) of those with hip OA, and 20% (95% CI 19.7 to 21.0) of those with knee OA, had progressed to arthroplasty. The strongest prognostic factors were desire for surgery (hazard ratio (HR) hip 3.12 (95% CI 2.95 to 3.31), HR knee 2.72 (95% CI 2.55 to 2.90)), walking difficulties (HR hip 2.20 (95% CI 1.97 to 2.46), HR knee 1.95 (95% CI 1.73 to 2.20)), and frequent pain (HR hip 1.56 (95% CI 1.40 to 1.73), HR knee 1.77 (95% CI 1.58 to 2.00)). In hip OA, the probability of progression to surgery was lower among those with comorbidities (e.g. ≥ four conditions; HR 0.64 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.69)), with no detectable effects in the knee OA cohort. Instead, being overweight or obese increased the probability of OA progress in the knee cohort (HR 1.25 (95% CI 1.15 to 1.37)), but not among those with hip OA. Conclusion. Patients with hip OA progressed faster and to a greater extent to arthroplasty than patients with knee OA. Progression was strongly influenced by patients’ desire for surgery and by factors related to severity of OA symptoms, but factors not directly related to OA symptoms are also of importance. However, a large proportion of patients with OA do not seem to require surgery within five years, especially among those with knee OA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(7):792–800

Aims. This study aimed to investigate the clinical characteristics and outcomes associated with culture-negative limb osteomyelitis patients. Methods. A total of 1,047 limb osteomyelitis patients aged 18 years or older who underwent debridement and intraoperative culture at our clinic centre from 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2020 were included. Patient characteristics, infection eradication, and complications were analyzed between culture-negative and culture-positive cohorts. Results. Of these patients, 264 (25.2%) had negative cultures. Patients with a culture-negative compared with a culture-positive status were more likely to have the following characteristics: younger age (≤ 40 years) (113/264 (42.8%) vs 257/783 (32.8%); p = 0.004), a haematogenous aetiology (75/264 (28.4%) vs 150/783 (19.2%); p = 0.002), Cierny-Mader host A (79/264 (29.9%) vs 142/783 (18.1%); p < 0.001), antibiotic use before sampling (34/264 (12.9%) vs 41/783 (5.2%); p＜0.001), fewer taken samples (n＜3) (48/264 (18.2%) vs 60/783 (7.7%); p＜0.001), and less frequent presentation with a sinus (156/264 (59.1%) vs 665/783 (84.9%); p < 0.001). After initial treatments of first-debridement and antimicrobial, infection eradication was inferior in culture-positive osteomyelitis patients, with a 2.24-fold increase (odds ratio 2.24 (95% confidence interval 1.42 to 3.52)) in the redebridement rate following multivariate analysis. No statistically significant differences were found in long-term recurrence and complications within the two-year follow-up. Conclusion. We identified several factors being associated with the culture-negative result in osteomyelitis patients. In addition, the data also indicate that culture negativity is a positive prognostic factor in early infection eradication. These results constitute the basis of optimizing clinical management and patient consultations. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(7):720–727

Aims. Clear cell sarcoma (CCS) of soft-tissue is a rare melanocytic subtype of mesenchymal malignancy. The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical and therapeutic factors associated with increased survival, stratified by clinical stage, in order to determine the optimal treatment. Methods. The study was a retrospective analysis involving 117 patients with histologically confirmed CCS, between July 2016 and November 2017, who were enrolled in the Bone and Soft Tissue Tumour Registry in Japan. Results. The five- and ten-year survival rates were 41% (95% confidence interval (CI) 29 to 52) and 37% (95% CI 25 to 49), respectively. On multivariable analysis, the size of the tumour of > 10 cm (p = 0.006), lymph node metastasis at the time of diagnosis (p < 0.001), distant metastases at the time of diagnosis (p < 0.001), and no surgery for the primary tumour (p = 0.019) were independently associated with a poor survival. For N0M0 CCS (n = 68), the development of distant metastases was an independent prognostic factor for survival (early (< 12 months), hazard ratio (HR) 116.78 (95% CI 11.69 to 1,166.50); p < 0.001; late (> 12 months), HR 14.79 (95% CI 1.66 to 131.63); p = 0.016); neoadjuvant/adjuvant chemotherapy (p = 0.895) and/or radiotherapy (p = 0.216) were not significantly associated with survival. The five-year cumulative incidence of local recurrence was 19% (95% CI 8 to 35) and the size of the tumour was significantly associated with an increased rate of local recurrence (p = 0.012). For N1M0 CCS (n = 18), the risk of mortality was significantly lower in patients who underwent surgery for both the primary tumour and lymph node metastases (HR 0.03 (95% CI 0.00 to 0.56); p = 0.020). For M1 CCS (n = 31), excision of the primary tumour was independently associated with better survival (HR 0.26 (95% CI 0.09 to 0.76); p = 0.013). There was no significant difference in survival between the different types of systemic treatment (p = 0.523). Conclusion. Complete excision of the primary tumour and lymph nodes is associated with a better survival in patients with CCS. Systemic treatment appears to provide limited benefits, demonstrating a pressing need for novel systemic agents. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(11):1216–1225

The diagnostic sub-categorization of cauda equina syndrome (CES) is used to aid communication between doctors and other healthcare professionals. It is also used to determine the need for, and urgency of, MRI and surgery in these patients. A recent paper by Hoeritzauer et al (2023) in this journal examined the interobserver reliability of the widely accepted subcategories in 100 patients with cauda equina syndrome. They found that there is no useful interobserver agreement for the subcategories, even for experienced spinal surgeons. This observation is supported by the largest prospective study of the treatment of cauda equina syndrome in the UK by Woodfield et al (2023). If the accepted subcategories are unreliable, they cannot be used in the way that they are currently, and they should be revised or abandoned. This paper presents a reassessment of the diagnostic and prognostic subcategories of cauda equina syndrome in the light of this evidence, with a suggested cure based on a more inclusive synthesis of symptoms, signs, bladder ultrasound scan results, and pre-intervention urinary catheterization. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(3):227–231

Aims. This study aimed to determine clinical outcomes; relationships between postoperative anterior, lateral, and posterior acetabular coverage and joint survival; and prognostic factors for joint survival after transposition osteotomy of the acetabulum (TOA). Methods. Data from 616 patients (800 hips) with hip dysplasia who underwent TOA between November 1998 and December 2019 were reviewed. The median follow-up period was 8.9 years (IQR 5 to 14). A medical notes review was conducted to collect demographic data, complications, and modified Harris Hip Score (mHHS). Radiological indicators of acetabular coverage included lateral centre-edge angle (LCEA), anterior wall index (AWI), and posterior wall index (PWI). The cumulative probability of TOA failure (progression to Tönnis grade 3 or conversion to total hip arthroplasty) was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier product-limited method. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify predictors for failure. Results. Median mHHS improved from 68 preoperatively to 96 at the latest follow-up (p < 0.001). The overall joint survival rate was 97% at ten years and 70% at 20 years. For the postoperative LCEA subgroups, survival in the deficient group was lower than that in the excessive (p = 0.006) and normal (p = 0.007) groups. For the postoperative AWI subgroups, survival in the deficient group was lower than that in the excessive (p = 0.015) and normal (p < 0.001) groups. Multivariate analysis identified age (p = 0.010), Tönnis grade 2 (p < 0.001), roundness index (p = 0.003), fair joint congruity (p = 0.004), and postoperative AWI (p = 0.002) as independent risk factors. Conclusion. Deficient postoperative AWI adversely affected joint survival after TOA, underscoring the importance of sufficient anterior acetabular coverage, along with precise surgical indications, to ensure successful hip joint preservation in the treatment of hip dysplasia. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(12):1399–1407

Aims. Hip arthroscopy has gained prominence as a primary surgical intervention for symptomatic femoroacetabular impingement (FAI). This study aimed to identify radiological features, and their combinations, that predict the outcome of hip arthroscopy for FAI. Methods. A prognostic cross-sectional cohort study was conducted involving patients from a single centre who underwent hip arthroscopy between January 2013 and April 2021. Radiological metrics measured on conventional radiographs and magnetic resonance arthrography were systematically assessed. The study analyzed the relationship between these metrics and complication rates, revision rates, and patient-reported outcomes. Results. Out of 810 identified hip arthroscopies, 359 hips were included in the study. Radiological risk factors associated with unsatisfactory outcomes after cam resection included a dysplastic posterior wall, Tönnis grade 2 or higher, and over-correction of the α angle. The presence of acetabular retroversion and dysplasia were also significant predictors for worse surgical outcomes. Notably, over-correction of both cam and pincer deformities resulted in poorer outcomes than under-correction. Conclusion. We recommend caution in performing hip arthroscopy in patients who have three positive acetabular retroversion signs. Acetabular dysplasia with a lateral centre-edge angle of less than 20° should not be treated with isolated hip arthroscopy. Acetabular rim-trimming should be avoided in patients with borderline dysplasia, and care should be taken to avoid over-correction of a cam deformity and/or pincer deformity. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(8):775–782

Aims. This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between hip shape and mid-term function in Perthes’ disease. It also explored whether the modified three-group Stulberg classification can offer similar prognostic information to the five-group system. Methods. A total of 136 individuals aged 12 years or older who had Perthes’ disease in childhood completed the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) Mobility score (function), Nonarthritic Hip Score (NAHS) (function), EuroQol five-dimension five-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L) score (quality of life), and the numeric rating scale for pain (NRS). The Stulberg class of the participants’ hip radiographs were evaluated by three fellowship-trained paediatric orthopaedic surgeons. Hip shape and Stulberg class were compared to PROM scores. Results. A spherical hip was associated with the highest function and quality of life, and lowest pain. Conversely, aspherical hips exhibited the lowest functional scores and highest pain. The association between worsening Stulberg class (i.e. greater deviation from sphericity) and worse outcome persisted after adjustment for age and sex in relation to PROMIS (predicted mean difference -1.77 (95% confidence interval (CI) -2.70 to -0.83)), NAHS (-5.68 (95% CI -8.45 to -2.90)), and NRS (0.61 (95% CI 0.14 to 1.08)), but not EQ-5D-5L (-0.03 (95% CI -0.72 to 0.11)). Conclusion. Patient-reported outcomes identify lower function, quality of life, and higher pain in aspherical hips. The magnitude of symptoms deteriorated with time. Hip sphericity (i.e. the modified three-group classification of spherical, oval, and aspherical) appeared to offer similar levels of detail to the five-group Stulberg classification. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(6):711–716

Aims. The aim of this study was to review the current evidence surrounding curve type and morphology on curve progression risk in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Methods. A comprehensive search was conducted by two independent reviewers on PubMed, Embase, Medline, and Web of Science to obtain all published information on morphological predictors of AIS progression. Search items included ‘adolescent idiopathic scoliosis’, ‘progression’, and ‘imaging’. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were carefully defined. Risk of bias of studies was assessed with the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool, and level of evidence for each predictor was rated with the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) approach. In all, 6,286 publications were identified with 3,598 being subjected to secondary scrutiny. Ultimately, 26 publications (25 datasets) were included in this review. Results. For unbraced patients, high and moderate evidence was found for Cobb angle and curve type as predictors, respectively. Initial Cobb angle > 25° and thoracic curves were predictive of curve progression. For braced patients, flexibility < 28% and limited in-brace correction were factors predictive of progression with high and moderate evidence, respectively. Thoracic curves, high apical vertebral rotation, large rib vertebra angle difference, small rib vertebra angle on the convex side, and low pelvic tilt had weak evidence as predictors of curve progression. Conclusion. For curve progression, strong and consistent evidence is found for Cobb angle, curve type, flexibility, and correction rate. Cobb angle > 25° and flexibility < 28% are found to be important thresholds to guide clinical prognostication. Despite the low evidence, apical vertebral rotation, rib morphology, and pelvic tilt may be promising factors. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):424–432

Aims. The aim of this study was to report the long-term prognosis of patients with multiple Langerhans cell histiocytosis (LCH) involving the spine, and to analyze the risk factors for progression-free survival (PFS). Methods. We included 28 patients with multiple LCH involving the spine treated between January 2009 and August 2021. Kaplan-Meier methods were applied to estimate overall survival (OS) and PFS. Univariate Cox regression analysis was used to identify variables associated with PFS. Results. Patients with multiple LCH involving the spine accounted for 15.4% (28/182 cases) of all cases of spinal LCH: their lesions primarily involved the thoracic and lumbar spines. The most common symptom was pain, followed by neurological dysfunction. All patients presented with osteolytic bone destruction, and 23 cases were accompanied by a paravertebral soft-tissue mass. The incidence of vertebra plana was low, whereas the oversleeve-like sign was a more common finding. The alkaline phosphatase was significantly higher in patients with single-system multifocal bone LCH than in patients with multisystem LCH. At final follow-up, one patient had been lost to follow-up, two patients had died, three patients had local recurrence, six patients had distant involvement, and 17 patients were alive with disease. The median PFS and OS were 50.5 months (interquartile range (IQR) 23.5 to 63.1) and 60.5 months (IQR 38.0 to 73.3), respectively. Stage (hazard ratio (HR) 4.324; p < 0.001) and chemotherapy (HR 0.203; p < 0.001) were prognostic factors for PFS. Conclusion. Pain is primarily due to segmental instability of the spine from its destruction by LCH. Chemotherapy can significantly improve PFS, and radiotherapy has achieved good results in local control. The LCH lesions in some patients will continue to progress. It may initially appear as an isolated or single-system LCH, but will gradually involve multiple sites or systems. Therefore, long-term follow-up and timely intervention are important for patients with spinal LCH. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(6):679–687

Aims. Traumatic central cord syndrome (CCS) typically follows a hyperextension injury and results in motor impairment affecting the upper limbs more than the lower, with occasional sensory impairment and urinary retention. Current evidence on mortality and long-term outcomes is limited. The primary aim of this study was to assess the five-year mortality of CCS, and to determine any difference in mortality between management groups or age. Methods. Patients aged ≥ 18 years with a traumatic CCS between January 2012 and December 2017 in Wales were identified. Patient demographics and data about injury, management, and outcome were collected. Statistical analysis was performed to assess mortality and between-group differences. Results. A total of 65 patients were identified (66.2% male (n = 43), mean age 63.9 years (SD 15.9)). At a minimum of five years’ follow-up, 32.3% of CCS patients (n = 21) had died, of whom six (9.2%) had died within 31 days of their injury. Overall, 69.2% of patients (n = 45) had been managed conservatively. There was no significant difference in age between conservatively and surgically managed patients (p = 0.062). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed no significant difference in mortality between patients managed conservatively and those managed surgically (p = 0.819). However, there was a significant difference in mortality between the different age groups (< 50 years vs 50 to 70 years vs > 70 years; p = 0.001). At five years’ follow-up, 55.6% of the patient group aged > 70 years at time of injury had died (n = 15). Respiratory failure was the most common cause of death (n = 9; 42.9%). Conclusion. Almost one-third of patients with a traumatic CCS in Wales had died within five years of their injury. The type of management did not significantly affect mortality but their age at the time of injury did. Further work to assess the long-term functional outcomes of surviving patients is needed to generate more reliable prognostic information. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(8):920–927

There is increasing popularity in the use of artificial intelligence and machine-learning techniques to provide diagnostic and prognostic models for various aspects of Trauma & Orthopaedic surgery. However, correct interpretation of these models is difficult for those without specific knowledge of computing or health data science methodology. Lack of current reporting standards leads to the potential for significant heterogeneity in the design and quality of published studies. We provide an overview of machine-learning techniques for the lay individual, including key terminology and best practice reporting guidelines. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(12):1754–1758

Aims. This study presents patient-reported quality of life (QoL) over the first year following surgical debridement of long bone osteomyelitis. It assesses the bone involvement, antimicrobial options, coverage of soft tissues, and host status (BACH) classification as a prognostic tool and its ability to stratify cases into ‘uncomplicated’ or ‘complex’. Methods. Patients with long-bone osteomyelitis were identified prospectively between June 2010 and October 2015. All patients underwent surgical debridement in a single-staged procedure at a specialist bone infection unit. Self-reported QoL was assessed prospectively using the three-level EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D-3L) index score and visual analogue scale (EQ-VAS) at five postoperative time-points (baseline, 14 days, 42 days, 120 days, and 365 days). BACH classification was applied retrospectively by two clinicians blinded to outcome. Results. In total, 71 patients with long-bone osteomyelitis were included. There was significant improvement from time of surgery to one year postoperatively in mean EQ-VAS (58.2 to 78.9; p < 0.001) and mean EQ-5D-3L index scores (0.284 to 0.740; p < 0.001). At one year following surgery, BACH ‘uncomplicated’ osteomyelitis was associated with better QoL compared to BACH ‘complex’ osteomyelitis (mean EQ-5D-3L 0.900 vs 0.685; p = 0.020; mean EQ-VAS 87.1 vs 73.6; p = 0.043). Patients with uncomplicated bone involvement (BACH type B1, cavitary) reported higher QoL at all time-points when compared to complex bone involvement (B2, segmental or B3, osteomyelitis involving a joint). Patients with good antimicrobial options (Ax or A1) gave higher outcome scores compared to patients with multidrug-resistant isolates (A2). The need for microvascular tissue transfer (C1 and C2) did not impact significantly on QoL. Patients without major comorbidities (uncomplicated, H1) reported higher QoL compared to those with significant disease (complex, H2). Conclusion. Uncomplicated osteomyelitis, as defined by BACH, gave higher self-reported QoL when compared to complex cases. The bone involvement, antimicrobial options, and host status variables were able to stratify patients in terms of QoL. These data can be used to offer prognostic information to patients who are undergoing treatment for long bone osteomyelitis. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(11):1587–1596

Aims. Internal hemipelvectomy without reconstruction of the pelvis is a viable treatment for pelvic sarcoma; however, the time it takes to return to excellent function is quite variable. Some patients require greater time and rehabilitation than others. To determine if psoas muscle recovery is associated with changes in ambulatory function, we retrospectively evaluated psoas muscle size and limb-length discrepancy (LLD) before and after treatment and their correlation with objective functional outcomes. Methods. T1-weighted MR images were evaluated at three intervals for 12 pelvic sarcoma patients following interval hemipelvectomy without reconstruction. Correlations between the measured changes and improvements in Timed Up and Go test (TUG) and gait speed outcomes were assessed both independently and using a stepwise multivariate regression model. Results. Increased ipsilesional psoas muscle size from three months postoperatively to latest follow-up was positively correlated with gait speed improvement (r = 0.66). LLD at three months postoperatively was negatively correlated with both TUG (r = -0.71) and gait speed (r = -0.61). Conclusion. This study suggests that psoas muscle strengthening and minimizing initial LLD will achieve the greatest improvements in ambulatory function. LLD and change in hip musculature remain substantial prognostic factors for achieving the best clinical outcomes after internal hemipelvectomy. Changes in psoas size were correlated with the amount of functional improvement. Several patients in this study did not return to their preoperative ipsilateral psoas size, indicating that monitoring changes in psoas size could be a beneficial rehabilitation strategy. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(3):323–330

Aims. To develop and internally validate a preoperative clinical prediction model for acute adjacent vertebral fracture (AVF) after vertebral augmentation to support preoperative decision-making, named the after vertebral augmentation (AVA) score. Methods. In this prognostic study, a multicentre, retrospective single-level vertebral augmentation cohort of 377 patients from six Japanese hospitals was used to derive an AVF prediction model. Backward stepwise selection (p < 0.05) was used to select preoperative clinical and imaging predictors for acute AVF after vertebral augmentation for up to one month, from 14 predictors. We assigned a score to each selected variable based on the regression coefficient and developed the AVA scoring system. We evaluated sensitivity and specificity for each cut-off, area under the curve (AUC), and calibration as diagnostic performance. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping to correct the optimism. Results. Of the 377 patients used for model derivation, 58 (15%) had an acute AVF postoperatively. The following preoperative measures on multivariable analysis were summarized in the five-point AVA score: intravertebral instability (≥ 5 mm), focal kyphosis (≥ 10°), duration of symptoms (≥ 30 days), intravertebral cleft, and previous history of vertebral fracture. Internal validation showed a mean optimism of 0.019 with a corrected AUC of 0.77. A cut-off of ≤ one point was chosen to classify a low risk of AVF, for which only four of 137 patients (3%) had AVF with 92.5% sensitivity and 45.6% specificity. A cut-off of ≥ four points was chosen to classify a high risk of AVF, for which 22 of 38 (58%) had AVF with 41.5% sensitivity and 94.5% specificity. Conclusion. In this study, the AVA score was found to be a simple preoperative method for the identification of patients at low and high risk of postoperative acute AVF. This model could be applied to individual patients and could aid in the decision-making before vertebral augmentation. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(1):97–102

Aims. Rotational acetabular osteotomy (RAO) has been reported to be effective in improving symptoms and preventing osteoarthritis (OA) progression in patients with mild to severe develomental dysplasia of the hip (DDH). However, some patients develop secondary OA even when the preoperative joint space is normal; determining who will progress to OA is difficult. We evaluated whether the preoperative cartilage condition may predict OA progression following surgery using T2 mapping MRI. Methods. We reviewed 61 hips with early-stage OA in 61 patients who underwent RAO for DDH. They underwent preoperative and five-year postoperative radiological analysis of the hip. Those with a joint space narrowing of more than 1 mm were considered to have 'OA progression'. Preoperative assessment of articular cartilage was also performed using 3T MRI with the T2 mapping technique. The region of interest was defined as the weightbearing portion of the acetabulum and femoral head. Results. There were 16 patients with postoperative OA progression. The T2 values of the centre to the anterolateral region of the acetabulum and femoral head in the OA progression cases were significantly higher than those in patients without OA progression. The preoperative T2 values in those regions were positively correlated with the narrowed joint space width. The receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed that the T2 value of the central portion in the acetabulum provided excellent discrimination, with OA progression patients having an area under the curve of 0.858. Furthermore, logistic regression analysis showed T2 values of the centre to the acetabulum’s anterolateral portion as independent predictors of subsequent OA progression (p < 0.001). Conclusion. This was the first study to evaluate the relationship between intra-articular degeneration using T2 mapping MRI and postoperative OA progression. Our findings suggest that preoperative T2 values of the hip can be better prognostic factors for OA progression than radiological measures following RAO. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(9):1472–1478

Aims. The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic value of the modified three-group Stulberg classification, which is based on the sphericity of the femoral head, in patients with Perthes’ disease. Methods. A total of 88 patients were followed from the time of diagnosis until a mean follow-up of 21 years. Anteroposterior pelvic and frog-leg lateral radiographs were obtained at diagnosis and at follow-up of one, five, and 21 years. At the five- and 21-year follow-up, the femoral heads were classified using a modified three-group Stulberg classification (round, ovoid, or flat femoral head). Further radiological endpoints at long-term follow-up were osteoarthritis (OA) of the hip and the requirement for total hip arthroplasty (THA). Results. There were 71 males (81%) and 17 females. A total of 13 patients had bilateral Perthes’ disease; thus 101 hips were analyzed. At five-year follow-up, 37 hips were round, 38 ovoid, and 26 flat. At that time, 66 hips (65%) were healed and 91 (90%) were skeletally immature. At long-term follow-up, when the mean age of the patients was 28 years (24 to 34), 20 hips had an unsatisfactory outcome (seven had OA and 13 had required THA). There was a strongly significant association between the modified Stulberg classification applied atfive-year follow-up and an unsatisfactory outcome at long-term follow-up (p < 0.001). Between the five- and 21-year follow-up, 67 hips (76%) stayed in their respective modified Stulberg group, indicating a strongly significant association between the Stulberg classifications at these follow-ups (p < 0.001). Conclusion. The modified Stulberg classification is a strong predictor of long-term radiological outcome in patients with Perthes’ disease. It can be applied at the healing stage, which is usually reached five years after the diagnosis is made and before skeletal maturity. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(12):1815–1820

Aims. The aim of this study was to compare the characteristics and outcomes of L-shaped and reverse L-shaped rotator cuff tears. Methods. A total of 82 shoulders (81 patients) after arthroscopic rotator cuff repair were retrospectively enrolled. The mean age of the patients was 62 years (SD 6), 33 shoulders (40.2%) were in male patients, and 57 shoulders (69.5%) were the right shoulder. Of these, 36 shoulders had an L-shaped tear (group L) and 46 had a reverse L-shaped tear (group RL). Both groups were compared regarding characteristics, pre- and postoperative pain, and functional outcomes. Muscle status was assessed by preoperative MRI, and re-tear rates by postoperative ultrasonography or MRI. Results. Patients in group RL were significantly older than in group L (p = 0.008), and group RL was significantly associated with female sex (odds ratio 2.5 (95% confidence interval 1.03 to 6.32); p = 0.041). Mean postoperative pain visual analogue scale (VAS) score was significantly greater (group L = 0.8 (SD 1.5), group RL = 1.7 (SD 2.2); p = 0.033) and mean postoperative American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons (ASES) score was significantly lower in group RL than group L (group L = 91.4 (SD 13.1), group RL = 83.8 (SD 17.9); p = 0.028). However, postoperative mean VAS for pain and ASES score were not lower than the patient-acceptable symptom state scores. Mean retracted tear length was significantly larger in group L (group L = 24.6 mm (SD 6.5), group RL = 20.0 mm (SD 6.8); p = 0.003). Overall re-tear rate for 82 tears was 11.0% (nine shoulders), and re-tear rates in group L and RL were similar at 11.1% (four shoulders) and 10.9% (five shoulders), respectively (p = 1.000). No significant intergroup difference was found for fatty degeneration (FD) or muscle atrophy. Within group L, postoperative FD grades of supraspinatus and subscapularis worsened significantly (p = 0.034 and p = 0.008, respectively). Mean postoperative pain VAS (male = 1.2 (SD 1.8), female = 1.3 (SD 2.0)) and ASES scores (male = 88.7 (SD 15.5), female = 86.0 (SD 16.8)) were similar in male and female patients (p = 0.700 and p = 0.475, respectively). Regression analysis showed age was not a prognostic factor of postoperative pain VAS or ASES scores (p = 0.188 and p = 0.150, respectively). Conclusion. Older age and female sex were associated with reverse L-shaped tears. Although the postoperative functional outcomes of patients with reverse L-shaped tears were satisfactory, the clinical scores were poorer than those of patients with L-shaped tears. Surgeons should be aware of the differences in clinical outcome between L-shaped and reverse L-shaped rotator cuff tears. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(3):394–400

Aims. To identify the prevalence of neuropathic pain after lower limb fracture surgery, assess associations with pain severity, quality of life and disability, and determine baseline predictors of chronic neuropathic pain at three and at six months post-injury. Methods. Secondary analysis of a UK multicentre randomized controlled trial (Wound Healing in Surgery for Trauma; WHiST) dataset including adults aged 16 years or over following surgery for lower limb major trauma. The trial recruited 1,547 participants from 24 trauma centres. Neuropathic pain was measured at three and six months using the Doleur Neuropathique Questionnaire (DN4); 701 participants provided a DN4 score at three months and 781 at six months. Overall, 933 participants provided DN4 for at least one time point. Physical disability (Disability Rating Index (DRI) 0 to 100) and health-related quality-of-life (EuroQol five-dimension five-level; EQ-5D-5L) were measured. Candidate predictors of neuropathic pain included sex, age, BMI, injury mechanism, concurrent injury, diabetes, smoking, alcohol, analgaesia use pre-injury, index surgery location, fixation type, Injury Severity Score, open injury, and wound care. Results. The median age of the participants was 51 years (interquartile range 35 to 64). At three and six months post-injury respectively, 32% (222/702) and 30% (234/787) had neuropathic pain, 56% (396/702) and 53% (413/787) had chronic pain without neuropathic characteristics, and the remainder were pain-free. Pain severity was higher among those with neuropathic pain. Linear regression analyses found that those with neuropathic pain at six months post-injury had more physical disability (DRI adjusted mean difference 11.49 (95% confidence interval (CI) 7.84 to 15.14; p < 0.001) and poorer quality of life (EQ-5D utility -0.15 (95% CI -0.19 to -0.11); p < 0.001) compared to those without neuropathic characteristics. Logistic regression identified that prognostic factors of younger age, current smoker, below knee fracture, concurrent injuries, and regular analgaesia pre-injury were associated with higher odds of post-injury neuropathic pain. Conclusion. Pain with neuropathic characteristics is common after lower limb fracture surgery and persists to six months post-injury. Persistent neuropathic pain is associated with substantially poorer recovery. Further attention to identify neuropathic pain post-lower limb injury, predicting patients at risk, and targeting interventions, is indicated. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(6):1047–1054

Aims. Surgical site infection can be a devastating complication of hemiarthroplasty of the hip, when performed in elderly patients with a displaced fracture of the femoral neck. It results in a prolonged stay in hospital, a poor outcome and increased costs. Many studies have identified risk and prognostic factors for deep infection. However, most have combined the rates of infection following total hip arthroplasty and internal fixation as well as hemiarthroplasty, despite the fact that they are different entities. The aim of this study was to clarify the risk and prognostic factors causing deep infection after hemiarthroplasty alone. Patients and Methods. Data were extracted from a prospective hip fracture database and completed by retrospective review of the hospital records. A total of 916 patients undergoing a hemiarthroplasty in two level II trauma teaching hospitals between 01 January 2011 and 01 May 2016 were included. We analysed the potential peri-operative risk factors with univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis. Results. A total of 92 patients (10%) had a surgical site infection, and 44 (4.9%) developed a deep infection. After univariable analyses, the multivariable model showed that the level of experience of the surgeon measured by the number of hemiarthroplasties performed per year was a significant prognostic factor (odds ratio (OR) 0.93, p = 0.042) for the development of an infection. Secondly, the development of a haematoma (OR 9.6, p < 0.001), a re-operation (OR 4.7, p = 0.004) and an operating time of < 45 mins (OR 5.1, p = 0.002) or > 90 mins (OR 2.7, p = 0.034) were also significant factors. Conclusion. There was a significant association between the experience of the surgeon and the rate of deep infection. Secondly, a haematoma, a re-operation and both shorter and longer operating times were associated with an increased risk of deep infection after hemiarthroplasty. No association was found between deep infection and the anatomical approach, the time when surgery was undertaken and the use of a drain. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:1088–94