Aims. Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a common complication after elbow trauma and can cause severe upper limb disability. Although multiple prognostic factors have been reported to be associated with the development of post-traumatic HO, no model has yet been able to combine these predictors more succinctly to convey prognostic information and medical measures to patients. Therefore, this study aimed to identify prognostic factors leading to the formation of HO after surgery for elbow trauma, and to establish and validate a nomogram to predict the probability of HO formation in such particular injuries. Methods. This multicentre case-control study comprised 200 patients with post-traumatic elbow HO and 229 patients who had elbow trauma but without HO formation between July 2019 and December 2020. Features possibly associated with HO formation were obtained. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize feature selection. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build the new nomogram: the Shanghai post-Traumatic Elbow Heterotopic Ossification Prediction model (STEHOP). STEHOP was validated by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. Male sex, obesity, open wound, dislocations, late definitive surgical treatment, and lack of use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were identified as adverse predictors and incorporated to construct the STEHOP model. It displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.84). A high C-index value of 0.77 could still be reached in the internal validation. The calibration plot showed good agreement between nomogram prediction and observed outcomes. Conclusion. The newly developed STEHOP model is a valid and convenient instrument to predict HO formation after surgery for elbow trauma. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding treatment expectations and therapeutic choices. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):963–971

In recent years, machine learning (ML) and artificial neural networks (ANNs), a particular subset of ML, have been adopted by various areas of healthcare. A number of diagnostic and prognostic algorithms have been designed and implemented across a range of orthopaedic sub-specialties to date, with many positive results. However, the methodology of many of these studies is flawed, and few compare the use of ML with the current approach in clinical practice. Spinal surgery has advanced rapidly over the past three decades, particularly in the areas of implant technology, advanced surgical techniques, biologics, and enhanced recovery protocols. It is therefore regarded an innovative field. Inevitably, spinal surgeons will wish to incorporate ML into their practice should models prove effective in diagnostic or prognostic terms. The purpose of this article is to review published studies that describe the application of neural networks to spinal surgery and which actively compare ANN models to contemporary clinical standards allowing evaluation of their efficacy, accuracy, and relatability. It also explores some of the limitations of the technology, which act to constrain the widespread adoption of neural networks for diagnostic and prognostic use in spinal care. Finally, it describes the necessary considerations should institutions wish to incorporate ANNs into their practices. In doing so, the aim of this review is to provide a practical approach for spinal surgeons to understand the relevant aspects of neural networks. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(9):1442–1448

Aims. The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a prognostic nomogram to predict the probability of gaining a functional range of motion (ROM ≥ 120°) after open arthrolysis of the elbow in patients with post-traumatic stiffness of the elbow. Methods. We developed the Shanghai Prediction Model for Elbow Stiffness Surgical Outcome (SPESSO) based on a dataset of 551 patients who underwent open arthrolysis of the elbow in four institutions. Demographic and clinical characteristics were collected from medical records. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize the selection of relevant features. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to build the SPESSO. Its prediction performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and a calibration graph. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. BMI, the duration of stiffness, the preoperative ROM, the preoperative intensity of pain, and grade of post-traumatic osteoarthritis of the elbow were identified as predictors of outcome and incorporated to construct the nomogram. SPESSO displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.73 (95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.81). A high C-index value of 0.70 could still be reached in the interval validation. The calibration graph showed good agreement between the nomogram prediction and the outcome. Conclusion. The newly developed SPESSO is a valid and convenient model which can be used to predict the outcome of open arthrolysis of the elbow. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding the choice and expectations of treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):486–494

Aims. The study aimed to assess the clinical outcomes of arthroscopic debridement and partial excision in patients with traumatic central tears of the triangular fibrocartilage complex (TFCC), and to identify prognostic factors associated with unfavourable clinical outcomes. Methods. A retrospective analysis was conducted on patients arthroscopically diagnosed with Palmer 1 A lesions who underwent arthroscopic debridement and partial excision from March 2009 to February 2021, with a minimum follow-up of 24 months. Patients were assessed using the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) questionnaire, Mayo Wrist Score (MWS), and visual analogue scale (VAS) for pain. The poor outcome group was defined as patients whose preoperative and last follow-up clinical score difference was less than the minimal clinically important difference of the DASH score (10.83). Baseline characteristics, arthroscopic findings, and radiological factors (ulnar variance, MRI, or arthrography) were evaluated to predict poor clinical outcomes. Results. A total of 114 patients were enrolled in this study, with a mean follow-up period of 29.8 months (SD 14.4). The mean DASH score improved from 36.5 (SD 21.5) to 16.7 (SD 14.3), the mean MWS from 59.7 (SD 17.9) to 79.3 (SD 14.3), and the mean VAS pain score improved from 5.9 (SD 1.8) to 2.2 (SD 2.0) at the last follow-up (all p < 0.001). Among the 114 patients, 16 (14%) experienced poor clinical outcomes and ten (8.8%) required secondary ulnar shortening osteotomy. Positive ulnar variance was the only factor significantly associated with poor clinical outcomes (p < 0.001). Positive ulnar variance was present in 38 patients (33%); among them, eight patients (21%) required additional operations. Conclusion. Arthroscopic debridement alone appears to be an effective and safe initial treatment for patients with traumatic central TFCC tears. The presence of positive ulnar variance was associated with poor clinical outcomes, but close observation after arthroscopic debridement is more likely to be recommended than ulnar shortening osteotomy as a primary treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(4):380–386

Aims. The modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) uses preoperative CRP and albumin to calculate a score from 0 to 2 (2 being associated with poor outcomes). mGPS is validated in multiple carcinomas. To date, its use in soft-tissue sarcoma (STS) is limited, with only small cohorts reporting that increased mGPS scores correlates with decreased survival in STS patients. Methods. This retrospective multicentre cohort study identified 493 STS patients using clinical databases from six collaborating hospitals in three countries. Centres performed a retrospective data collection for patient demographics, preoperative blood results (CRP and albumin levels and neutrophil, leucocyte, and platelets counts), and oncological outcomes (disease-free survival, local, or metastatic recurrence) with a minimum of two years' follow-up. Results. We found that increased mGPS, tumour size, grade, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, and disease recurrence were associated with reduced survival. Importantly, mGPS was the best at stratifying prognosis and could be used in conjunction with tumour grade to sub-stratify patient survival. Conclusion. This study demonstrated that prognosis of localized STS strongly correlates with mGPS, as an increasing score is associated with a poorer outcome. We note that 203 patients (41%) with an STS have evidence of systemic inflammation. We recommend the mGPS and other biochemical blood indicators be introduced into the routine diagnostic assessment in STS patients to stratify patient prognosis. Its use will support clinical decision-making, especially when morbid treatment options such as amputation are being considered. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(1):168–176

Aims. The early mortality in patients with hip fractures from bony metastases is unknown. The objectives of this study were to quantify 30- and 90-day mortality in patients with proximal femoral metastases, and to create a mortality prediction tool based on biomarkers associated with early death. Methods. This was a retrospective cohort study of consecutive patients referred to the orthopaedic department at a UK trauma centre with a proximal femoral metastasis (PFM) over a seven-year period (2010 to 2016). The study group were compared to a matched control group of non-metastatic hip fractures. Minimum follow-up was one year. Results. There was a 90-day mortality of 46% in patients with metastatic hip fractures versus 12% in controls (89/195 and 24/192, respectively; p < 0.001). Mean time to surgery was longer in symptomatic metastases versus complete fractures (9.5 days (SD 19.8) and 3.4 days (SD 11.4), respectively; p < 0.05). Albumin, urea, and corrected calcium were all independent predictors of early mortality and were used to generate a simple tool for predicting 90-day mortality, titled the Metastatic Early Prognostic (MEP) score. An MEP score of 0 was associated with the lowest risk of death at 30 days (14%, 3/21), 90 days (19%, 4/21), and one year (62%, 13/21). MEP scores of 3/4 were associated with the highest risk of death at 30 days (56%, 5/9), 90 days (100%, 9/9), and one year (100%, 9/9). Neither age nor primary cancer diagnosis was an independent predictor of mortality at 30 and 90 days. Conclusion. This score could be used to predict early mortality and guide perioperative counselling. The delay to surgery identifies a potential window to intervene and correct these abnormalities with the aim of improving survival. Cite this article: Bone Joint J. 2020;102-B(1):72–81

Between 1992 and 1999, we treated 350 patients with skeletal metastases. A multivariable analysis of the patients was conducted using the Cox proportional hazards model. We identified five significant prognostic factors for survival, namely, the site of the primary lesion, the performance status (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group status 3 or 4), the presence of visceral or cerebral metastases, any previous chemotherapy, and multiple skeletal metastases. The score for each significant factor was derived from the corresponding estimated regression coefficients (natural logarithm of the hazard ratio). The prognostic score was calculated by adding all the scores for individual factors. The rate of survival was 31% at six months and 11% at one year for the patients with a prognostic score of 6 or more. By contrast, patients with a prognostic score of 2 or less had a rate of survival of 98% at six months and 89% at one year. This scoring system can be used to determine the optimal treatment for patients with pathological fractures or epidural compression

Aims. The purpose of this study was to identify prognostic indicators of outcome at presentation to the orthopaedic surgeon, in patients with metastatic prostate cancer. Our aim was to use this information in a pragmatic, clinic-based approach so that surgical decision making could be optimized to benefit the patient in their remaining lifetime. Patients and Methods. A cohort analysis was undertaken of all patients with metastatic disease of the prostate who presented to a regional orthopaedic centre in the United Kingdom between 2003 and 2016. Biochemical data were collected in addition to disease and demographic data. These included: prostate-specific antigen (PSA) at orthopaedic presentation; haemoglobin (Hb); platelets (plt); alkaline phosphatase (ALP); albumin (Alb); and corrected calcium (CaC). Statistical analysis included Kaplan–Meier survival analysis, and a Cox proportional hazards model was fitted to the data. Results. From the departmental database, 137 episodes were identified in 136 patients with a median age at presentation of 72 years (interquartile range (IQR) 66 to 78). Most patients had stage IV disease (n = 98, 72%), and most did not undergo surgical intervention. At one-year follow-up, 50% of patients had died. Biomarkers found to be independently associated with poor survival were: low Hb, low Alb, relatively low PSA (< 30 mmol/l), and a raised ALP. Patients who needed surgical intervention had a poorer survival rate than patients who were managed nonoperatively. Conclusion. The study findings are important for orthopaedic clinical practice in the management of patients with metastatic prostate cancer. The interpretation of routine blood tests can help to predict survival in patients who present with orthopaedic manifestations of prostate cancer. A lower PSA is not necessarily a good prognostic sign. We believe that simple blood testing should be carried out routinely when assessing a patient, guiding potential surgical management and palliative care in the future

A small proportion of children with Gartland type III supracondylar humeral fracture (SCHF) experience troubling limited or delayed recovery after operative treatment. We hypothesised that the fracture level relative to the isthmus of the humerus would affect the outcome. We retrospectively reviewed 230 children who underwent closed reduction and percutaneous pinning (CRPP) for their Gartland type III SCHFs between March 2003 and December 2012. There were 144 boys and 86 girls, with the mean age of six years (1.1 to 15.2). The clinico-radiological characteristics and surgical outcomes (recovery of the elbow range of movement, post-operative angulation, and the final Flynn grade) were recorded. Multivariate analysis was employed to identify prognostic factors that influenced outcome, including fracture level. Multivariate analysis revealed that a fracture below the humeral isthmus was significantly associated with poor prognosis in terms of the range of elbow movement (p < 0.001), angulation (p = 0.001) and Flynn grade (p = 0.003). Age over ten years was also a poor prognostic factor for recovery of the range of elbow movement (p = 0.027). This is the first study demonstrating a subclassification system of Gartland III fractures with prognostic significance. This will guide surgeons in peri-operative planning and counselling as well as directing future research aimed at improving outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:134–40

Aims. Spinal tuberculosis (TB) remains an important concern. Although spinal TB often has sequelae such as myelopathy after treatment, the predictive factors affecting such unfavourable outcomes are not yet established. We investigated the clinical manifestations and predictors of unfavourable treatment outcomes in patients with spinal TB. Patients and Methods. We performed a multicentre retrospective cohort study of patients with spinal TB. Unfavourable outcome was defined according to previous studies. The prognostic factors for unfavourable outcomes as the primary outcome were determined using multivariable logistic regression analysis and a linear mixed model was used to compare time course of inflammatory markers during treatment. A total of 185 patients were included, of whom 59 patients had unfavourable outcomes. Results. In multivariate regression analysis, the factors associated with unfavourable outcome were old age (odds ratio (OR) 2.51; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07 to 5.86; p = 0.034), acid-fast bacilli (AFB) smear positivity in specimens obtained through biopsy (OR 3.05; 95% CI 1.06 to 8.80; p = 0.039), and elevated erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) at the end of treatment (OR 3.85; 95% CI 1.62 to 9.13; p = 0.002). Patients with unfavourable outcomes had a significant trend toward higher ESR during treatment compared with patients with favourable outcome (p = 0.009). Duration of anti-TB and surgical treatment did not affect prognosis. Conclusion. Elevated ESR at the end of treatment could be used as a marker to identify spinal TB patients with a poor prognosis. Patients whose ESR is not normalized during treatment, as well as those with old age and AFB smear positivity, should be aware of unfavourable outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1542–1549

The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic and therapeutic factors which influence the oncological outcome of parosteal osteosarcoma. A total of 80 patients with a primary parosteal osteosarcoma were included in this retrospective study. There were 51 females and 29 males with a mean age of 29.9 years (11 to 78). The mean follow-up was 11.2 years (1 to 40). Overall survival was 91.8% at five years and 87.8% at ten years. Local recurrence occurred in 14 (17.5%) patients and was associated with intralesional surgery and a large volume of tumour. On histological examination, 80% of the local recurrences were dedifferentiated high-grade tumours. A total of 12 (14.8%) patients developed pulmonary metastases, of whom half had either a dedifferentiated tumour or a local recurrence. Female gender and young age were good prognostic factors. Local recurrence was a poor prognostic factor for survival. Medullary involvement or the use of chemotherapy had no impact on survival. The main goal in treating a parosteal osteosarcoma must be to achieve a wide surgical margin, as inadequate margins are associated with local recurrence. Local recurrence has a significant negative effect on survival, as 80% of the local recurrences are high-grade dedifferentiated tumours, and half of these patients develop metastases. The role of chemotherapy in the treatment of parosteal osteosarcoma is not as obvious as it is in the treatment of conventional osteosarcoma. The mainstay of treatment is wide local excision. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:1698–1703

The aim of this study was to determine whether the high-sensitivity modified Glasgow prognostic score (Hs-mGPS) could predict the disease-specific survival and oncological outcome in adult patients with non-metastatic soft-tissue sarcoma before treatment. A total of 139 patients treated between 2001 and 2012 were retrospectively reviewed. The Hs-mGPS varied between 0 and 2. Patients with a score of 2 had a poorer disease-specific survival than patients with a score of 0 (p < 0.001). The estimated five-year rate of disease-specific survival for those with a score of 2 was 0%, compared with 85.4% (95% CI 77.3 to 93.5) for those with a score of 0. Those with a score of 2 also had a poorer disease-specific survival than those with a score of 1 (75.3%, 95% CI 55.8 to 94.8; p < 0.001). Patients with a score of 2 also had a poorer event-free rate than those with a score of 0 (p < 0.001). Those with a score of 2 also had a poorer event-free survival than did those with a score of 1 (p = 0.03). A multivariate analysis showed that the Hs-mGPS remained an independent predictor of survival and recurrence. The Hs-mGPS could be a useful prognostic marker in patients with a soft-tissue sarcoma. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015; 97-B:847–52

This nationwide prospective study was designed to determine prognostic factors and evaluate the outcome of different treatments of Perthes’ disease. A total of 28 hospitals in Norway were instructed to report all new cases of Perthes’ disease over a period of five years and 425 patients were reported and followed for five years. Of these, 368 with unilateral disease were included in the present study. The hips were classified radiologically according to a modified two-group Catterall classification and the lateral pillar classification. A total of 358 patients (97%) attended the five-year follow-up, when a modified three-group Stulberg classification was used as a radiological outcome measure. For patients over six years of age at diagnosis and with more than 50% necrosis of the femoral head (152 patients), the surgeons at the different hospitals had chosen one of three methods of treatment: physiotherapy (55 patients), the Scottish Rite abduction orthosis (26), and proximal femoral varus osteotomy (71). Of these hips, 146 (96%) were available for the five-year follow-up. The strongest predictor of outcome was femoral head involvement of more or less than 50% (odds ratio (OR) = 7.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.82 to 21.37), followed by age at diagnosis (OR = 0.98, 95% CI 0.92 to 0.99) and the lateral pillar classification (OR = 0.62, 95% CI 0.40 to 0.98). In children over six years at diagnosis with more than 50% of femoral head necrosis, proximal femoral varus osteotomy gave a significantly better outcome than orthosis (p = 0.001) or physiotherapy (p = 0.001). There was no significant difference between the physiotherapy and orthosis groups (p = 0.36), and we found no difference in outcome after any of the treatments in children under six years (p = 0.73). We recommend proximal femoral varus osteotomy in children aged six years and over at the time of diagnosis with hips having more than 50% femoral head necrosis. The abduction orthosis should be abandoned in Perthes’ disease

In a retrospective study of all 137 patients with soft-tissue sarcoma treated by surgery between 1972 and 1984, the clinical course was related to several host and tumour features, including the Surgical Staging System of Enneking, Spanier and Goodman (1980). Only patients free from metastasis with untreated primary lesions on admission were included. According to the Surgical Staging System, nine tumours were IA, 18 IB, 38 IIA and 72 IIB. Only 12 patients underwent amputation; 125 were treated by local surgery. The mean follow-up time was ten years (minimum five). For the whole series the probability of seven-year survival was 0.65; 42 patients (31%) died from tumour disease. All these had metastases and 24 also had local recurrence. The local recurrence rate was 36%. Multivariate analysis identified large tumour size and high histological grade as significant risk factors for metastatic disease and tumour-related death. Sex, age, tumour site, surgical margin and local recurrence showed no correlation with survival. The prognostic contribution of compartmentality was virtually nil. Histological grade combined with tumour size was found to give better prognostic information than that obtained by the Surgical Staging System

The aim of this study was to determine whether the level of circulating C-reactive protein (CRP) before treatment predicted overall disease-specific survival and local tumour control in patients with a sarcoma of bone. We retrospectively reviewed 318 patients who presented with a primary sarcoma of bone between 2003 and 2010. Those who presented with metastases and/or local recurrence were excluded. Elevated CRP levels were seen in 84 patients before treatment; these patients had a poorer disease-specific survival (57% at five years) than patients with a normal CRP (79% at five years) (p < 0.0001). They were also less likely to be free of recurrence (71% at five years) than patients with a normal CRP (79% at five years) (p = 0.04). Multivariate analysis showed the pre-operative CRP level to be an independent predictor of survival and local control. Patients with a Ewing’s sarcoma or chondrosarcoma who had an elevated CRP before their treatment started had a significantly poorer disease-specific survival than patients with a normal CRP (p = 0.02 and p < 0.0001, respectively). Patients with a conventional osteosarcoma and a raised CRP were at an increased risk of poorer local control. We recommend that CRP levels are measured routinely in patients with a suspected sarcoma of bone as a further prognostic indicator of survival. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:411–18

Aims. The aim of this paper was to investigate the prognostic factors for local recurrence in patients with pathological fracture through giant cell tumours of bone (GCTB). Patients and Methods. A total of 107 patients presenting with fractures through GCTB treated at our institution (Royal Orthopaedic Hospital, Birmingham, United Kingdom) between 1995 and 2016 were retrospectively studied. Of these patients, 57 were female (53%) and 50 were male (47%).The mean age at diagnosis was 33 years (14 to 86). A univariate analysis was performed, followed by multivariate analysis to identify risk factors based on the treatment and clinical characteristics. Results. The initial surgical treatment was curettage with or without adjuvants in 55 patients (51%), en bloc resection with or without reconstruction in 45 patients (42%), and neoadjuvant denosumab, followed by resection (n = 3, 3%) or curettage (n = 4, 4%). The choice of treatment depended on tumour location, Campanacci tumour staging, intra-articular involvement, and fracture displacement. Neoadjuvant denosumab was used only in fractures through Campanacci stage 3 tumours. Local recurrence occurred in 28 patients (25%). Surgery more than six weeks after the fracture did not affect the risk of recurrence in any of the groups. In Campanacci stage 3 tumours not treated with denosumab, en bloc resection had lower local recurrences (13%), compared with curettage (39%). In tumours classified as Campanacci 2, intralesional curettage and en bloc resections had similar recurrence rates (21% and 24%, respectively). After univariate analysis, the type of surgical intervention, location, and the use of denosumab were independent factors predicting local recurrence. Further surgery was required 33% more often after intralesional curettage in comparison with resections (mean 1.59, 0 to 5 vs 1.06, 0 to 3 operations). All patients treated with denosumab followed by intralesional curettage developed local recurrence. Conclusion. In patients with pathological fractures through GCTB not treated with denosumab, en bloc resection offers lower risks of local recurrence in tumours classified as Campanacci stage 3. Curettage or resections are both similar options in terms of the risk of local recurrence for tumours classified as Campanacci stage 2. The benefits of denosumab followed by intralesional curettage in these patients still remains unclear

We investigated the rates of expression of bone morphogenetic protein-2 (BMP-2) in 29 adult patients with high-grade malignant fibrous histiocytoma of soft tissue, using the BMP-2-specific monoclonal antibody, AbH3b2/17, and found that they ranged from 1.9% to 78.9%. The survival at five years of the groups expressing high (≥30%) and low (< 30%) levels of BMP-2 was 85.7% and 36.3%, respectively. Multivariable analysis showed that only BMP-2 had prognostic significance for continuous disease-free survival and for overall survival (p < 0.05). Our findings indicate that over-expression of BMP-2 in malignant fibrous histiocytoma of soft tissue is the most reliable prognostic indicator of the parameters assessed

McFarland fractures of the medial malleolus in children, also classified as Salter–Harris Type III and IV fractures, are associated with a high incidence of premature growth plate arrest. In order to identify prognostic factors for the development of complications we reviewed 20 children with a McFarland fracture that was treated surgically, at a mean follow-up of 8.9 years (3.5 to 17.4). Seven children (35%) developed premature growth arrest with angular deformity. The mean American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Society Ankle-Hindfoot Scale for all patients was 98.3 (87 to 100) and the mean modified Weber protocol was 1.15 (0 to 5). There was a significant correlation between initial displacement (p = 0.004) and operative delay (p = 0.007) with premature growth arrest. Both risk factors act independently and additively, such that all children with both risk factors developed premature arrest whereas children with no risk factor did not. We recommend that fractures of the medial malleolus in children should be treated by anatomical reduction and screw fixation within one day of injury. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:419–23

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We conducted a study to identify factors that are prognostic of the outcome of extracorporeal shockwave therapy (ESWT) for calcific tendinitis of the shoulder.

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Surgical intervention in patients with bone metastases from breast cancer is dependent on the estimated survival of the patient. The purpose of this paper was to identify factors that would predict survival so that specific decisions could be made in terms of surgical (or non-surgical) management.