The hip fracture burden on health and social care services in Scotland is anticipated to increase significantly, primarily driven by an ageing population. This study forecasts future hip fracture incidence and the annual number of hip fractures in Scotland until 2029.

The monthly number of patients with hip fracture aged ≥ 50 admitted to a Scottish hospital between 01/01/2017 and 31/12/2021 was identified through data collected by the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit. This data was analysed using Exponential Smoothing and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average forecast modelling to project future hip fracture incidence and the annual number of hip fractures until 2029. Adjustments for population change were accounted for by integrating population projections published by National Records of Scotland.

Between 2017 and 2021 the annual number of hip fractures in Scotland increased from 6675 to 7797, with a respective increase in hip fracture incidence from 313 to 350 per 100,000. By 2029, the averaged projected annual number of hip fractures is 10311, with an incidence rate of 463 per 100,000. The largest percentage increase in hip fracture occurs in the 70-79 age group (57%), with comparable increases in both sexes (30%). Based upon these projections, overall length of stay following hip fracture will increase from 142713 bed days per annum in 2021, to 203412 by 2029, incurring an additional cost of over £25 million.

Forecast modelling demonstrates that the annual number of hip fractures in Scotland will rise substantially by 2029, with considerable implications for health and social care services.

Hip fracture care is complex multi-disciplinary. We hypothesise that quality of care is affected by variance in resources between ‘in-hours’ (Monday-Friday, 0800–1700) and ‘out-of-hours’ services.

This prospective multicentre national cohort study assessed quality of care by evaluating adherence to the evidence-based Scottish Standards of Care for Hip Fracture Patients. Data was collected by the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit for 15174 patients admitted to any of 22 Scottish hospitals from January 2014-April 2018.

11197/15174 (73.8%) patients were admitted out-of-hours. They were significantly less likely to meet the following Standards: ED Big-6-Bundle (OR 0.85, p= 0.002); Time in ED <4 hours (OR 0.76, p< 0.001); avoidance of repeated fasting (OR 0.80, p< 0.001), and avoidance of prolonged fluid fasting (OR 0.83, p< 0.001). Out-of-hours admissions were more likely to receive: geriatric assessment <3 days (OR 1.16, p< 0.001); OT input <3 days (OR 1.10, p= 0.013), and PT input <2 days (OR 1.44, p< 0.001). There were no significant differences for: Time to Theatre <36 hours; Inpatient Care Bundle <24 hours, and Post-op Day 1 Mobilisation.

Quality of hip fracture care is affected by time of admission. ED care is poorer out-of-hours, which may reflect limited resources, and out-of-hours admissions are more likely to be excessive fasted excessively. Weekday in-hours admissions are less likely to receive geriatric and allied health professional input in the days following admission, which may reflect the reduced weekend services. Examination of out-of-hours service organisation is required for the pursuit of consistent, equitable care for hip fracture patients.

Hip fractures in young adults are rare but represent an important cohort of patients, of which relatively limited data exists. The aim of this study was to evaluate this distinct subgroup of hip fractures from an epidemiological perspective and assess their subsequent outcomes.

Patients aged 18–50 were identified across an 8 year period from a total of 5326 hip fractures. 46 hip fractures met the inclusion criteria and a retrospective case series analysis was conducted.

25/46 (54%) of fractures were intracapsular and 21/46 (46%) were extracapsular. Only 15/46 (33%) of fractures were sustained from a high energy mechanism and 31/46 (67%) low energy. The low energy cohort was significantly more comorbid with a mean Elixhauser comorbidity score of 1.5 compared to the high energy cohort 0.3 (p<0.0005, unpaired t-test). Alcohol excess was the most prevalent comorbidity present in 24% of patients and was a positive predictor in complication (p=0.006, binary regression). Failure of fixation (non-union/avascular necrosis) in displaced intracapsular fractures sustained following low energy trauma managed by internal fixation 5/11 (45%) was markedly higher than the high energy cohort 0/6 (0%). 5 year mortality was 9% for all hip fractures, six times higher than an aged matched cohort of non-hip fractures (p=0.007, Wilcoxon test).

Representing only 0.86% of all hip fractures in the study period, hip fractures in young adults are rare. A clear sub-division of patients is observed between patients with a low and high energy mechanism, both in terms of level of comorbidity and surgical outcome.

Deficiency in the gluteus medius and minimus abductor muscles is a well-recognised cause of hip pain and considerable disability. These patients present a management challenge, with no established consensus for surgical intervention. Whiteside in 2012 described a surgical technique for gluteus maximus tendon transfer, with successful outcomes reported. This study is the largest known case series to date of patients undergoing gluteus maximus tendon transfer with clinical and patient reported outcomes measured.

13 consecutive patients were included in the study. All patients had clinical evidence of abductor dysfunction together with MRI evidence of gluteal atrophy and fat infiltration. All patients underwent gluteus maximus transfer with surgery performed according to the procedure described by Whiteside. Patients were followed up with both clinical assessment and patient questionnaires conducted.

Mean age was 69 (range 54–82) with 9 patients (69%) having previous Hardinge approach to the affected hip. 6 patients (46%) reported they were satisfied overall with the procedure and 5 patients (38%) were unsatisfied. 7 patients (54%) had improvements in visual analogue scale of pain and 5 patients (54%) reported overall improvements in function. Mean Oxford Hip Score on follow up was 20/48 (range 5–48) and trendelenberg test was positive in 11 patients (85%). No differentiating variable could be identified between patients with positive and negative outcomes (Assessed Variables: Age, sex, BMI, aetiology and gluteus maximus muscle thickness).

Clinical outcomes were varied following gluteus maximus tendon transfer for chronic hip abductor dysfunction. Results are considerably less promising than pre-existing studies would suggest.

Due to changes in population demographics, the burden of hip fractures in Scotland is expected to rise dramatically over the coming decades. This study aims to establish the future incidence of hip fracture in Scotland in individuals aged 50 and over.

The number of patients admitted to hospital in Scotland with a hip fracture between 1999 and 2016 were ascertained from discharge coding across NHS Scotland. The annual number of hip fractures were categorised to enable gender and age specific hip fracture incidence rates to be calculated. Through static and variable projection methods, the annual hip fracture incidence up to 2035 was forecast and analysed with respect to specific demographics ascertained from population data provided by the National Records of Scotland.

Between 1999 and 2016 the total number of hip fractures in individuals aged 50 and over increased by 11%, from 7,131 to 7,930, equating to an average year-on-year increase of 0.6%. Patients aged over 75 consistently accounted for more than 85% of recorded hip fractures, with females having a higher incidence rate than males across all age groups. A decreasing incidence in females aged over 70 was observed. Using multiple projection methods, the annual number of hip fractures in Scotland is predicted to increase by 55% from 7,930 in 2016, to an average of 12,316 by 2035.

Projection modelling confirms the annual number of hip fractures in Scotland will rise substantially by 2035 with considerable implications for health and social care provision.

Leg length discrepancy (LLD) can adversely affect functional outcome and patient satisfaction after total hip arthroplasty. We describe a novel intraoperative technique for femoral component insertion.

We aimed to determine if this technique resulted in the desired femoral placement, as templated, and if this was associated with a reduced LLD.

A series of fifty consecutive primary total hip replacements were studied. Preoperative digital templating was performed on standardised PA radiographs of the hips by the senior surgeon. The preoperative LLD was calculated and the distance from the superior tip of the greater trochanter to the predicted shoulder of the stem was calculated (GT-S). Intraoperatively, this length was marked on the rasp handle and the stem inserted to the predetermined level by the surgeon. This level corresponded to the tip of the greater trochanter and formed a continuous line to the mark on the rasp handle. Three independent blinded observers measured the GT-S on the postoperative radiographs. We assessed the relationship between the senior author's GT-S (preoperative) and the observers' GT-S (postoperative) using a Person correlation. The observers also measured the preoperative and postoperative LLD, and the inter-observer variability was calculated as the intra-class correlation coefficient.

There was a strong correlation of preoperative and postoperative GT-S (R=0.87), suggesting that the stem was inserted as planned. The mean preoperative and postoperative LLD were −4.3 mm (−21.4–4) and −0.9 mm (−9.8–8.6), respectively (p<0.001).

This technique consistently minimised LLD in this series. This technique is quick, non-invasive and does not require supplementary equipment.

We have investigated how medical postponement, the time to surgery and the correction of medical abnormalities, according to McLaughlin criteria, before operation affected peri-operative mortality after fracture of the hip. From February to December 2007, in addition to core data, the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit collected information relating to surgical delay. Data were available for 4284 patients which allowed 30-day survival analysis to be performed. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to control for differences in case-mix.

Patients with major clinical abnormalities were more likely to have a postponement and had a lower unadjusted 30-day survival. The time to operation and postponement were not associated with higher mortality after adjustment for case-mix. Correction of major clinical abnormalities before surgery improved the adjusted survival, but this improvement was not significant (p = 0.10). Postponement without correction of a medical abnormality before surgery was associated with a significantly lower (p = 0.006) 30-day adjusted survival. The possible benefits of postponement need to be weighed against prolonged discomfort for the patient and the possibility of the development of other complications.

We investigated the relationship between a number of patient and management variables and mortality after surgery for fracture of the hip. Data relating to 18 817 patients were obtained from the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit database. We divided variables into two categories, depending on whether they were case-mix (age; gender; fracture type; pre-fracture residence; pre-fracture mobility and ASA scores) or management variables (time from fracture to surgery; time from admission to surgery; grade of surgical and anaesthetic staff undertaking the procedure and anaesthetic technique).

Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that all case-mix variables were strongly associated with post-operative mortality, even when controlling for the effects of the remaining variables. Inclusion of the management variables into the case-mix base regression model provided no significant improvement to the model. Patient case-mix variables have the most significant effect on post-operative mortality and unfortunately such variables cannot be modified by pre-operative medical interventions.

We report gender differences in the epidemiology and outcome after hip fracture from the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit, with data on admission and at 120 days follow-up from 22 orthopaedic units across the country between 1998 and 2005. Outcome measures included early mortality, length of hospital stay, 120-day residence and mobility. A multivariate logistic regression model compared outcomes between genders. The study comprised 25 649 patients of whom 5674 (22%) were men and 19 975 (78%) were women. The men were in poorer pre-operative health, despite being younger at presentation (mean 77 years (60 to 101) vs 81 years (50 to 106)). Pre-fracture residence and mobility were similar between genders.

Multivariate analysis indicated that the men were less likely to return to their home or mobilise independently at the 120-day follow-up. Mortality at 30 and 120 days was higher for men, even after differences in case-mix variables between genders were considered.

Despite the increase in numbers of the extreme elderly, little data is available regarding their outcome after surgery for fracture of the hip. We performed a prospective study of 50 patients aged 95 years and over who underwent this procedure. Outcome measures included morbidity, mortality, hospital stay, residential and walking status. Comparison was made with a control group of 200 consecutive patients aged less than 95 years who had a similar operation. The mortality at 28 and 120 days was higher (p = 0.005, p = 0.001) in the patients over 95 years. However, the one-year cumulative post-operative mortality was neither significantly different between the two groups (p = 0.229) nor from the standardised mortality rate for the age-matched population (p = 0.445). Predictors of mortality included the ASA grade, the number of comorbid medical conditions and active medical problems on admission. Patients over 95 were unlikely to recover their independence and at a mean follow-up of 29.3 months (12.1 to 48) 96% required permanent institutional care.