Abstract
Due to changes in population demographics, the burden of hip fractures in Scotland is expected to rise dramatically over the coming decades. This study aims to establish the future incidence of hip fracture in Scotland in individuals aged 50 and over.
The number of patients admitted to hospital in Scotland with a hip fracture between 1999 and 2016 were ascertained from discharge coding across NHS Scotland. The annual number of hip fractures were categorised to enable gender and age specific hip fracture incidence rates to be calculated. Through static and variable projection methods, the annual hip fracture incidence up to 2035 was forecast and analysed with respect to specific demographics ascertained from population data provided by the National Records of Scotland.
Between 1999 and 2016 the total number of hip fractures in individuals aged 50 and over increased by 11%, from 7,131 to 7,930, equating to an average year-on-year increase of 0.6%. Patients aged over 75 consistently accounted for more than 85% of recorded hip fractures, with females having a higher incidence rate than males across all age groups. A decreasing incidence in females aged over 70 was observed. Using multiple projection methods, the annual number of hip fractures in Scotland is predicted to increase by 55% from 7,930 in 2016, to an average of 12,316 by 2035.
Projection modelling confirms the annual number of hip fractures in Scotland will rise substantially by 2035 with considerable implications for health and social care provision.
