Aims

Current levels of hip fracture morbidity contribute greatly to the overall burden on health and social care services. Given the anticipated ageing of the population over the coming decade, there is potential for this burden to increase further, although the exact scale of impact has not been identified in contemporary literature. We therefore set out to predict the future incidence of hip fracture and help inform appropriate service provision to maintain an adequate standard of care.

The hip fracture burden on health and social care services in Scotland is anticipated to increase significantly, primarily driven by an ageing population. This study forecasts future hip fracture incidence and the annual number of hip fractures in Scotland until 2029.

The monthly number of patients with hip fracture aged ≥ 50 admitted to a Scottish hospital between 01/01/2017 and 31/12/2021 was identified through data collected by the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit. This data was analysed using Exponential Smoothing and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average forecast modelling to project future hip fracture incidence and the annual number of hip fractures until 2029. Adjustments for population change were accounted for by integrating population projections published by National Records of Scotland.

Between 2017 and 2021 the annual number of hip fractures in Scotland increased from 6675 to 7797, with a respective increase in hip fracture incidence from 313 to 350 per 100,000. By 2029, the averaged projected annual number of hip fractures is 10311, with an incidence rate of 463 per 100,000. The largest percentage increase in hip fracture occurs in the 70-79 age group (57%), with comparable increases in both sexes (30%). Based upon these projections, overall length of stay following hip fracture will increase from 142713 bed days per annum in 2021, to 203412 by 2029, incurring an additional cost of over £25 million.

Forecast modelling demonstrates that the annual number of hip fractures in Scotland will rise substantially by 2029, with considerable implications for health and social care services.

Due to changes in population demographics, the burden of hip fractures in Scotland is expected to rise dramatically over the coming decades. This study aims to establish the future incidence of hip fracture in Scotland in individuals aged 50 and over.

The number of patients admitted to hospital in Scotland with a hip fracture between 1999 and 2016 were ascertained from discharge coding across NHS Scotland. The annual number of hip fractures were categorised to enable gender and age specific hip fracture incidence rates to be calculated. Through static and variable projection methods, the annual hip fracture incidence up to 2035 was forecast and analysed with respect to specific demographics ascertained from population data provided by the National Records of Scotland.

Between 1999 and 2016 the total number of hip fractures in individuals aged 50 and over increased by 11%, from 7,131 to 7,930, equating to an average year-on-year increase of 0.6%. Patients aged over 75 consistently accounted for more than 85% of recorded hip fractures, with females having a higher incidence rate than males across all age groups. A decreasing incidence in females aged over 70 was observed. Using multiple projection methods, the annual number of hip fractures in Scotland is predicted to increase by 55% from 7,930 in 2016, to an average of 12,316 by 2035.

Projection modelling confirms the annual number of hip fractures in Scotland will rise substantially by 2035 with considerable implications for health and social care provision.