Aims. To identify variables independently associated with same-day discharge (SDD) of patients following revision total knee arthroplasty (rTKA) and to develop machine learning algorithms to predict suitable candidates for outpatient rTKA. Methods. Data were obtained from the American College of Surgeons National Quality Improvement Programme (ACS-NSQIP) database from the years 2018 to 2020. Patients with elective, unilateral rTKA procedures and a total hospital length of stay between zero and four days were included. Demographic, preoperative, and intraoperative variables were analyzed. A multivariable logistic regression (MLR) model and various machine learning techniques were compared using area under the curve (AUC), calibration, and decision curve analysis. Important and significant variables were identified from the models. Results. Of the 5,600 patients included in this study, 342 (6.1%) underwent SDD. The random forest (RF) model performed the best overall, with an internally validated AUC of 0.810. The ten crucial factors favoring SDD in the RF model include operating time, anaesthesia type, age, BMI, American Society of Anesthesiologists grade, race, history of diabetes, rTKA type, sex, and smoking status. Eight of these variables were also found to be significant in the MLR model. Conclusion. The RF model displayed excellent accuracy and identified clinically important variables for determining candidates for SDD following rTKA. Machine learning techniques such as RF will allow clinicians to accurately risk-stratify their patients preoperatively, in order to optimize resources and improve patient outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(6):399–407

Aims. Machine learning (ML), a branch of artificial intelligence that uses algorithms to learn from data and make predictions, offers a pathway towards more personalized and tailored surgical treatments. This approach is particularly relevant to prevalent joint diseases such as osteoarthritis (OA). In contrast to end-stage disease, where joint arthroplasty provides excellent results, early stages of OA currently lack effective therapies to halt or reverse progression. Accurate prediction of OA progression is crucial if timely interventions are to be developed, to enhance patient care and optimize the design of clinical trials. Methods. A systematic review was conducted in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on 5 May 2024 for studies utilizing ML to predict OA progression. Titles and abstracts were independently screened, followed by full-text reviews for studies that met the eligibility criteria. Key information was extracted and synthesized for analysis, including types of data (such as clinical, radiological, or biochemical), definitions of OA progression, ML algorithms, validation methods, and outcome measures. Results. Out of 1,160 studies initially identified, 39 were included. Most studies (85%) were published between 2020 and 2024, with 82% using publicly available datasets, primarily the Osteoarthritis Initiative. ML methods were predominantly supervised, with significant variability in the definitions of OA progression: most studies focused on structural changes (59%), while fewer addressed pain progression or both. Deep learning was used in 44% of studies, while automated ML was used in 5%. There was a lack of standardization in evaluation metrics and limited external validation. Interpretability was explored in 54% of studies, primarily using SHapley Additive exPlanations. Conclusion. Our systematic review demonstrates the feasibility of ML models in predicting OA progression, but also uncovers critical limitations that currently restrict their clinical applicability. Future priorities should include diversifying data sources, standardizing outcome measures, enforcing rigorous validation, and integrating more sophisticated algorithms. This paradigm shift from predictive modelling to actionable clinical tools has the potential to transform patient care and disease management in orthopaedic practice. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(11):1216–1222

Aims. The use of technology to assess balance and alignment during total knee surgery can provide an overload of numerical data to the surgeon. Meanwhile, this quantification holds the potential to clarify and guide the surgeon through the surgical decision process when selecting the appropriate bone recut or soft tissue adjustment when balancing a total knee. Therefore, this paper evaluates the potential of deploying supervised machine learning (ML) models to select a surgical correction based on patient-specific intra-operative assessments. Methods. Based on a clinical series of 479 primary total knees and 1,305 associated surgical decisions, various ML models were developed. These models identified the indicated surgical decision based on available, intra-operative alignment, and tibiofemoral load data. Results. With an associated area under the receiver-operator curve ranging between 0.75 and 0.98, the optimized ML models resulted in good to excellent predictions. The best performing model used a random forest approach while considering both alignment and intra-articular load readings. Conclusion. The presented model has the potential to make experience available to surgeons adopting new technology, bringing expert opinion in their operating theatre, but also provides insight in the surgical decision process. More specifically, these promising outcomes indicated the relevance of considering the overall limb alignment in the coronal and sagittal plane to identify the appropriate surgical decision

Degenerative lumbar spondylolisthesis (DLS) is a common condition with many available treatment options. The Degenerative Spondylolisthesis Instability Classification (DSIC) scheme, based on a systematic review of best available evidence, was proposed by Simmonds et al. in 2015. This classification scheme proposes that the stability of the patient's pathology be determined by a surgeon based on quantitative and qualitative clinical and radiographic parameters. The purpose of the study is to utilise machine learning to classify DLS patients according to the DSIC scheme, offering a novel approach in which an objectively consistent system is employed. The patient data was collected by CSORN between 2015 and 2018 and included 224 DLS surgery cases. The data was cleaned by two methods, firstly, by deleting all patient entries with missing data, and secondly, by imputing the missing data using a maximum likelihood function. Five machine learning algorithms were used: logistic regression, boosted trees, random forests, support vector machines, and decision trees. The models were built using Python-based libraries and trained and tested using sklearn and pandas librairies. The algorithms were trained and tested using the two data sets (deletion and imputation cleaning methods). The matplotlib library was used to graph the ROC curves, including the area under the curve. The machine learning models were all able to predict the DSIC grade. Of all the models, the support vector machine model performed best, achieving an area under the curve score of 0.82. This model achieved an accuracy of 63% and an F1 score of 0.58. Between the two data cleaning methods, the imputation method was better, achieving higher areas under the curve than the deletion method. The accuracy, recall, precision, and F1 scores were similar for both data cleaning methods. The machine learning models were able to effectively predict physician decision making and score patients based on the DSIC scheme. The support vector machine model was able to achieve an area under the curve of 0.82 in comparison to physician classification. Since the data set was relatively small, the results could be improved with training on a larger data set. The use of machine learning models in DLS classification could prove to be an efficient approach to reduce human bias and error. Further efforts are necessary to test the inter- and intra-observer reliability of the DSIC scheme, as well as to determine if the surgeons using the scheme are following DLS treatment recommendations

This annotation briefly reviews the history of artificial intelligence and machine learning in health care and orthopaedics, and considers the role it will have in the future, particularly with reference to statistical analyses involving large datasets. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1476–1478

Femoroacetabular Impingement (FAI) syndrome, characterised by abnormal hip contact causing symptoms and osteoarthritis, is measured using the International Hip Outcome Tool (iHOT). This study uses machine learning to predict patient outcomes post-treatment for FAI, focusing on achieving a minimally clinically important difference (MCID) at 52 weeks. A retrospective analysis of 6133 patients from the NAHR who underwent hip arthroscopic treatment for FAI between November 2013 and March 2022 was conducted. MCID was defined as half a standard deviation (13.61) from the mean change in iHOT score at 12 months. SKLearn Maximum Absolute Scaler and Logistic Regression were applied to predict achieving MCID, using baseline and 6-month follow-up data. The model's performance was evaluated by accuracy, area under the curve, and recall, using pre-operative and up to 6-month postoperative variables. A total of 23.1% (1422) of patients completed both baseline and 1-year follow-up iHOT surveys. The best results were obtained using both pre and postoperative variables. The machine learning model achieved 88.1% balanced accuracy, 89.6% recall, and 92.3% AUC. Sensitivity was 83.7% and specificity 93.5%. Key variables determining outcomes included MCID achievement at 6 months, baseline iHOT score, 6-month iHOT scores for pain, and difficulty in walking or using stairs. The study confirmed the utility of machine learning in predicting long-term outcomes following arthroscopic treatment for FAI. MCID, based on the iHOT 12 tools, indicates meaningful clinical changes. Machine learning demonstrated high accuracy and recall in distinguishing between patients achieving MCID and those who did not. This approach could help early identification of patients at risk of not meeting the MCID threshold one year after treatment

Aims. Clinical decision support systems (CDSS) can support clinicians in selecting appropriate treatments for patients. The objective of this study was to examine if triaging patients with LBP to the most optimal treatment can be improved by using a data-driven approach with the help of machine learning as base of such a CDSS. Methods. A clinical database of the Groningen Spine Center containing patient-reported data from 1546 patients with LBP was used. From this dataset, a training dataset with 354 features was labeled on eight different treatments actually received by these patients. With this dataset, models were trained. A test dataset with 50 cases judged on treatments by 4 experts in LBP triage was used to test these models with data not used to train the models. Prediction accuracy and average area under curve (AUC) were used as performance measures for the models. Results. The AUC values indicated small to medium learning effects showing that machine learning on patient-reported data, to model decision-making processes on treatments for LBP, may be possible. One of the best performing models was the Bayesian Network (BN) model; e.g. predicted surgery with accuracy 0.78 (95% C.I. 0.68– 0.87) and AUC 0.70. Conclusion. Benefits to using BNs compared to other supervised machine learning techniques are that it is easy to exploit expert knowledge in BN models, meaning that advices generated by the model can be explained. The next step is to improve the BN accuracy so that it can actually be used in a CDSS. No conflicts of interest. Sources of funding: This work is partly funded by a grant from the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMw), grant 10-10400-98-009

Introduction & Aims. Patient recovery after total knee arthroplasty remains highly variable. Despite the growing interest in and implementation of patient reported outcome measures (e.g. Knee Society Score, Oxford Knee Score), the recovery process of the individual patient is poorly monitored. Unfortunately, patient reported outcomes represent a complex interaction of multiple physiological and psychological aspects, they are also limited by the discrete time intervals at which they are administered. The use of wearable sensors presents a potential alternative by continuously monitoring a patient's physical activity. These sensors however present their own challenges. This paper deals with the interpretation of the high frequency time signals acquired when using accelerometer-based wearable sensors. Method. During a preliminary validation, five healthy subjects were equipped with two wireless inertial measurement units (IMUs). Using adhesive tape, these IMU sensors were attached to the thigh and shank respectively. All subjects performed a series of supervised activities of daily living (ADL) in their everyday environment (1: walking, 2: stair ascent, 3: stair descent, 4: sitting, 5: laying, 6: standing). The supervisor timestamped the performed activities, such that the raw IMU signals could be uniquely linked to the performed activities. Subsequently, the acquired signals were reduced in Python. Each five second time window was characterized by the minimum, maximum and mean acceleration per sensor node. In addition, the frequency response was analyzed per sensor node as well as the correlation between both sensor nodes. Various machine learning approaches were subsequently implemented to predict the performed activities. Thereby, 60% of the acquired signals were used to train the mathematical models. These models were than used to predict the activity associated with the remaining 40% of the experimentally obtained data. Results. An overview of the obtained prediction accuracy per model stratified by ADL is provided in Table 1. The Nearest Neighbor and Random Forest algorithms performed worse compared to the Support Vector Machine and Decision Tree approaches. Even for the latter, differentiating between walking and stair ascent/descent remains challenging as well as differentiating between sitting, standing and laying. The prediction accuracies are however exceeding 90% for all activities when using the Support Vector Machine approach. This is further illustrated in Figure 1, indicating the actual versus predicted activity for the validation set. Conclusions. In conclusion, this paper presents an evaluation of different machine learning algorithms for the classification of activities of daily living from accelerometer-based wearable sensors. This facilitates evaluating a patient's ability to walk, climb or descend stairs, stand, lay or sit on a daily basis, understanding how active the patient is overall and which activities are routinely performed following arthroplasty surgery. Currently, effort is undertaken to understand how participation in these activities progresses with recovery following total knee arthroplasty

Introduction. Knee arthroplasty (KA), encompassing Total Knee Replacement (TKR) and Unicompartmental Knee Replacement (UKR), is one of the most common orthopedic procedures, aimed at alleviating severe knee arthritis. Postoperative KA management, especially radiographic imaging, remains a substantial financial burden and lacks standardised protocols for its clinical utility during follow-up. Method. In this retrospective multicentre cohort study, data were analysed from January 2014 to March 2020 for adult patients undergoing primary KA at Imperial NHS Trust. Patients were followed over a five-year period. Four machine learning models were developed to evaluate if post-operative X-ray frequency can predict revision surgery. The best-performing model was used to assess the risk of revision surgery associated with different number of X-rays. Result. The study assessed 289 knees with a 2.4% revision rate. The revision group had more X-rays on average than the primary group. The best performing model was Logistic Regression (LR), which indicated that each additional X-ray raised the revision risk by 52% (p<0.001). Notably, having four or more X-rays was linked to a three-fold increase in risk of revision (OR=3.02; p<0.001). Our results align with the literature that immediate post-operative X-rays have limited utility, making the 2nd post-operative X-ray of highest importance in understanding the patient's trajectory. These insights can enhance management by improving risk stratification for patients at higher revision surgery risk. Despite LR being the best-performing model, it is limited by the dataset's significant class imbalance. Conclusion. X-ray frequency can independently predict revision surgery. This study provides insights that can guide surgeons in evidence-based post-operative decision-making. To use those findings and influence post-operative management, future studies should build on this predictive model by incorporating a more robust dataset, surgical indications, and X-ray findings. This will allow early identification of high-risk patients, allowing for personalised post-operative recommendations

Single level discectomy (SLD) is one of the most commonly performed spinal surgery procedures. Two key drivers of their cost-of-care are duration of surgery (DOS) and postoperative length of stay (LOS). Therefore, the ability to preoperatively predict SLD DOS and LOS has substantial implications for both hospital and healthcare system finances, scheduling and resource allocation. As such, the goal of this study was to predict DOS and LOS for SLD using machine learning models (MLMs) constructed on preoperative factors using a large North American database. The American College of Surgeons (ACS) National Surgical and Quality Improvement (NSQIP) database was queried for SLD procedures from 2014-2019. The dataset was split in a 60/20/20 ratio of training/validation/testing based on year. Various MLMs (traditional regression models, tree-based models, and multilayer perceptron neural networks) were used and evaluated according to 1) mean squared error (MSE), 2) buffer accuracy (the number of times the predicted target was within a predesignated buffer), and 3) classification accuracy (the number of times the correct class was predicted by the models). To ensure real world applicability, the results of the models were compared to a mean regressor model. A total of 11,525 patients were included in this study. During validation, the neural network model (NNM) had the best MSEs for DOS (0.99) and LOS (0.67). During testing, the NNM had the best MSEs for DOS (0.89) and LOS (0.65). The NNM yielded the best 30-minute buffer accuracy for DOS (70.9%) and ≤120 min, >120 min classification accuracy (86.8%). The NNM had the best 1-day buffer accuracy for LOS (84.5%) and ≤2 days, >2 days classification accuracy (94.6%). All models were more accurate than the mean regressors for both DOS and LOS predictions. We successfully demonstrated that MLMs can be used to accurately predict the DOS and LOS of SLD based on preoperative factors. This big-data application has significant practical implications with respect to surgical scheduling and inpatient bedflow, as well as major implications for both private and publicly funded healthcare systems. Incorporating this artificial intelligence technique in real-time hospital operations would be enhanced by including institution-specific operational factors such as surgical team and operating room workflow

Precision health aims to develop personalised and proactive strategies for predicting, preventing, and treating complex diseases such as osteoarthritis (OA). Due to OA heterogeneity, which makes developing effective treatments challenging, identifying patients at risk for accelerated disease progression is essential for efficient clinical trial design and new treatment target discovery and development. To create a reliable and interpretable precision health tool that predicts rapid knee OA progression over a 2-year period from baseline patient characteristics using an advanced automated machine learning (autoML) framework, “Autoprognosis 2.0”. All available 2-year follow-up periods of 600 patients from the FNIH OA Biomarker Consortium were analysed using “Autoprognosis 2.0” in two separate approaches, with distinct definitions of clinical outcomes: multi-class predictions (categorising disease progression into pain and/or radiographic progression) and binary predictions. Models were developed using a training set of 1352 instances and all available variables (including clinical, X-ray, MRI, and biochemical features), and validated through both stratified 10-fold cross-validation and hold-out validation on a testing set of 339 instances. Model performance was assessed using multiple evaluation metrics. Interpretability analyses were carried out to identify important predictors of progression. Our final models yielded higher accuracy scores for multi-class predictions (AUC-ROC: 0.858, 95% CI: 0.856-0.860) compared to binary predictions (AUC-ROC: 0.717, 95% CI: 0.712-0.722). Important predictors of rapid disease progression included WOMAC scores and MRI features. Additionally, accurate ML models were developed for predicting OA progression in a subgroup of patients aged 65 or younger. This study presents a reliable and interpretable precision health tool for predicting rapid knee OA progression. Our models provide accurate predictions and, importantly, allow specific predictors of rapid disease progression to be identified. Furthermore, the transparency and explainability of our methods may facilitate their acceptance by clinicians and patients, enabling effective translation to clinical practice

Anterior approach total hip arthroplasty (AA-THA) has a steep learning curve, with higher complication rates in initial cases. Proper surgical case selection during the learning curve can reduce early risk. This study aims to identify patient and radiographic factors associated with AA-THA difficulty using Machine Learning (ML). Consecutive primary AA-THA patients from two centres, operated by two expert surgeons, were enrolled (excluding patients with prior hip surgery and first 100 cases per surgeon). K- means prototype clustering – an unsupervised ML algorithm – was used with two variables - operative duration and surgical complications within 6 weeks - to cluster operations into difficult or standard groups. Radiographic measurements (neck shaft angle, offset, LCEA, inter-teardrop distance, Tonnis grade) were measured by two independent observers. These factors, alongside patient factors (BMI, age, sex, laterality) were employed in a multivariate logistic regression analysis and used for k-means clustering. Significant continuous variables were investigated for predictive accuracy using Receiver Operator Characteristics (ROC). Out of 328 THAs analyzed, 130 (40%) were classified as difficult and 198 (60%) as standard. Difficult group had a mean operative time of 106mins (range 99–116) with 2 complications, while standard group had a mean operative time of 77mins (range 69–86) with 0 complications. Decreasing inter-teardrop distance (odds ratio [OR] 0.97, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.95–0.99, p = 0.03) and right-sided operations (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.10–2.72, p = 0.02) were associated with operative difficulty. However, ROC analysis showed poor predictive accuracy for these factors alone, with area under the curve of 0.56. Inter-observer reliability was reported as excellent (ICC >0.7). Right-sided hips (for right-hand dominant surgeons) and decreasing inter-teardrop distance were associated with case difficulty in AA-THA. These data could guide case selection during the learning phase. A larger dataset with more complications may reveal further factors

Abstract. Introduction. Precision health aims to develop personalised and proactive strategies for predicting, preventing, and treating complex diseases such as osteoarthritis (OA), a degenerative joint disease affecting over 300 million people worldwide. Due to OA heterogeneity, which makes developing effective treatments challenging, identifying patients at risk for accelerated disease progression is essential for efficient clinical trial design and new treatment target discovery and development. Objectives. This study aims to create a trustworthy and interpretable precision health tool that predicts rapid knee OA progression based on baseline patient characteristics using an advanced automated machine learning (autoML) framework, “Autoprognosis 2.0”. Methods. All available 2-year follow-up periods of 600 patients from the FNIH OA Biomarker Consortium were analysed using “Autoprognosis 2.0” in two separate approaches, with distinct definitions of clinical outcomes: multi-class predictions (categorising patients into non-progressors, pain-only progressors, radiographic-only progressors, and both pain and radiographic progressors) and binary predictions (categorising patients into non-progressors and progressors). Models were developed using a training set of 1352 instances and all available variables (including clinical, X-ray, MRI, and biochemical features), and validated through both stratified 10-fold cross-validation and hold-out validation on a testing set of 339 instances. Model performance was assessed using multiple evaluation metrics, such as AUC-ROC, AUC-PRC, F1-score, precision, and recall. Additionally, interpretability analyses were carried out to identify important predictors of rapid disease progression. Results. Our final models yielded high accuracy scores for both multi-class predictions (AUC-ROC: 0.858, 95% CI: 0.856–0.860; AUC-PRC: 0.675, 95% CI: 0.671–0.679; F1-score: 0.560, 95% CI: 0.554–0.566) and binary predictions (AUC-ROC: 0.717, 95% CI: 0.712–0.722; AUC-PRC: 0.620, 95% CI: 0.616–0.624; F1-score: 0.676, 95% CI: 0.673–0679). Important predictors of rapid disease progression included the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) scores and MRI features. Our models were further successfully validated using a hold-out dataset, which was previously omitted from model development and training (AUC-ROC: 0.877 for multi-class predictions; AUC-ROC: 0.746 for binary predictions). Additionally, accurate ML models were developed for predicting OA progression in a subgroup of patients aged 65 or younger (AUC-ROC: 0.862, 95% CI: 0.861–0.863 for multi-class predictions; AUC-ROC: 0.736, 95% CI: 0.734–0.738 for binary predictions). Conclusions. This study presents a reliable and interpretable precision health tool for predicting rapid knee OA progression using “Autoprognosis 2.0”. Our models provide accurate predictions and offer insights into important predictors of rapid disease progression. Furthermore, the transparency and interpretability of our methods may facilitate their acceptance by clinicians and patients, enabling effective utilisation in clinical practice. Future work should focus on refining these models by increasing the sample size, integrating additional features, and using independent datasets for external validation. Declaration of Interest. (b) declare that there is no conflict of interest that could be perceived as prejudicing the impartiality of the research reported:I declare that there is no conflict of interest that could be perceived as prejudicing the impartiality of the research project

Disorders of human joints manifest during dynamic movement, yet no objective tools are widely available for clinicians to assess or diagnose abnormal joint motion during functional activity. Machine learning tools have supported advances in many applications for image interpretation and understanding and have the potential to enable clinically and economically practical methods for objective assessment of human joint mechanics. We performed a study using convolutional neural networks to autonomously segment radiographic images of knee replacements and to determine the potential for autonomous measurement of knee kinematics. The autonomously segmented images provided superior kinematic measurements for both femur and tibia implant components. We believe this is an encouraging first step towards realization of a completely autonomous capability to accurately quantify dynamic joint motion using a clinically and economically practical methodology

Access to health care, including physiotherapy, is increasingly occurring through virtual formats. At-home adherence to physical therapy programs is often poor and few tools exist to objectively measure low back physiotherapy exercise participation without the direct supervision of a medical professional. The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate the potential for performing automatic, unsupervised video-based monitoring of at-home low back physiotherapy exercises using a single mobile phone camera. 24 healthy adult subjects performed seven exercises based on the McKenzie low back physiotherapy program while being filmed with two smartphone cameras. Joint locations were automatically extracted using an open-source pose estimation framework. Engineered features were extracted from the joint location time series and used to train a support vector machine classifier (SVC). A convolutional neural network (CNN) was trained directly on the joint location time series data to classify exercises based on a recording from a single camera. The models were evaluated using a 5-fold cross validation approach, stratified by subject, with the class-balanced accuracy used as the performance metric. Optimal performance was achieved when using a total of 12 pose estimation landmarks from the upper and lower body, with the SVC model achieving a classification accuracy of 96±4% and the CNN model an accuracy of 97±2%. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using a smartphone camera and a supervised machine learning model to effectively assess at-home low back physiotherapy adherence. This approach could provide a low-cost, scalable method for tracking adherence to physical therapy exercise programs in a variety of settings

Background. The advent of value-based conscientiousness and rapid-recovery discharge pathways presents surgeons, hospitals, and payers with the challenge of providing the same total hip arthroplasty episode of care in the safest and most economic fashion for the same fee, despite patient differences. Various predictive analytic techniques have been applied to medical risk models, such as sepsis risk scores, but none have been applied or validated to the elective primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) setting for key payment-based metrics. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a predictive machine learning model using preoperative patient demographics for length of stay (LOS) after primary THA as the first step in identifying a patient-specific payment model (PSPM). Methods. Using 229,945 patients undergoing primary THA for osteoarthritis from an administrative database between 2009– 16, we created a naïve Bayesian model to forecast LOS after primary THA using a 3:2 split in which 60% of the available patient data “built” the algorithm and the remaining 40% of patients were used for “testing.” This process was iterated five times for algorithm refinement, and model performance was determined using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), percent accuracy, and positive predictive value. LOS was either grouped as 1–5 days or greater than 5 days. Results. The machine learning model algorithm required age, race, gender, and two comorbidity scores (“risk of illness” and “risk of morbidity”) to demonstrate excellent validity, reliability, and responsiveness with an AUC of 0.87 after five iterations. Hospital stays of greater than 5 days for THA were most associated with increased risk of illness and risk of comorbidity scores during admission compared to 1–5 days of stay. Conclusions. Our machine learning model derived from administrative big data demonstrated excellent validity, reliability, and responsiveness after primary THA while accurately predicting LOS and identifying two comorbidity scores as key value-based metrics. Predictive data has the potential to engender a risk-based PSPM prior to primary THA and other elective orthopaedic procedures

Arthroplasties are widely performed to improve mobility and quality of life for symptomatic knee/hip osteoarthritis patients. With increasing rates of Total Joint Replacements in the United Kingdom, predicting length of stay is vital for hospitals to control costs, manage resources, and prevent postoperative complications. A longer Length of stay has been shown to negatively affect the quality of care, outcomes and patient satisfaction. Thus, predicting LOS enables us to make full use of medical resources. Clinical characteristics were retrospectively collected from 1,303 patients who received TKA and THR. A total of 21 variables were included, to develop predictive models for LOS by multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms, including Random Forest Classifier (RFC), K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN), Extreme Gradient Boost (XgBoost), and Na¯ve Bayes (NB). These models were evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for predictive performance. A feature selection approach was used to identify optimal predictive factors. Based on the ROC of Training result, XgBoost algorithm was selected to be applied to the Test set. The areas under the ROC curve (AUCs) of the 4 models ranged from 0.730 to 0.966, where higher AUC values generally indicate better predictive performance. All the ML-based models performed better than conventional statistical methods in ROC curves. The XgBoost algorithm with 21 variables was identified as the best predictive model. The feature selection indicated the top six predictors: Age, Operation Duration, Primary Procedure, BMI, creatinine and Month of Surgery. By analysing clinical characteristics, it is feasible to develop ML-based models for the preoperative prediction of LOS for patients who received TKA and THR, and the XgBoost algorithm performed the best, in terms of accuracy of predictive performance. As this model was originally crafted at Ashford and St. Peters Hospital, we have naturally named it as THE ASHFORD OUTCOME

Objective. Wearable sensors have enabled objective functional data collection from patients before total knee replacement (TKR) and at clinical follow-ups post-surgery whereas traditional evaluation has solely relied on self-reported subjective measures. The timed-up-and-go (TUG) test has been used to evaluate function but is commonly measured using only total completion time, which does not assess joint function or test completion strategy. The current work employs machine learning techniques to distinguish patient groups based on derived functional metrics from the TUG test and expose clinically important functional parameters that are predictive of patient recovery. Methods. Patients scheduled for TKR (n=70) were recruited and instrumented with a wearable sensor system while performing three TUG test trials. Remaining study patients (n=68) also completed three TUG trials at their 2, 6, and 13-week follow-ups. Many patients (n=36) have also participated up to their 26-week appointment. Custom developed software was used to segment recorded tests into sub-activities and extract 54 functional metrics to evaluate op/non-operative knee function. All preoperative TUG samples and their standardized metrics were clustered into two unlabelled groups using the k-means algorithm. Both groups were tracked forward to see how their early functional parameters translated to functional improvement at their three-month assessment. Test total completion time was used to estimate overall functional improvement and to relate findings to existing literature. Patients that completed their 26-week tests were tracked further to their most recent timepoint. Results. Preoperative clustering separated two groups with different test completion times (n=46 vs. n=22 with mean times of 13s vs. 22s). Of the faster preoperative group, 63% of patients maintained their time, 26% improved, and 11% worsened whereas of the slower preoperative group, 27% maintained, 64% improved, and 9% worsened. The high improvement group improved their times by 4.9s (p<0.01) between preoperative and 13-week visits whereas the other group had no significant change. Test times were different between both groups preoperatively (p<0.001) and at 6 (p=0.01) and 13 (p=0.03) weeks but not at 26 weeks (p=0.67). The high improvement group reached an overall improvement of 9s (p<0.01) at 26 weeks whereas the low improvement group still showed no improvement greater than the TUG minimal detectable change of 2.2s (1.8s, p<0.01)[1]. Test sub-activity times for both groups at each timepoint can be seen in Figure 1. Conclusions. This work has demonstrated that machine learning has the potential to find patterns in preoperative functional parameters that can predict functional improvement after surgery. While useful for assigning labels to the distinguished clusters, test completion time was not among the top distinguishable metrics between groups at three months which highlights the necessity for these more descriptive performance metrics when analyzing patient recovery. It is expected that these early predictions will be used to realistically adjust patient expectations or highlight opportunities for physiotherapeutic intervention to improve future outcomes. For any figures or tables, please contact the authors directly

Total knee and hip arthroplasty (TKA and THA) are the most commonly performed surgical procedures, the costs of which constitute a significant healthcare burden. Improving access to care for THA/TKA requires better efficiency. It is hypothesized that this may be possible through a two-stage approach that utilizes prediction of surgical time to enable optimization of operating room (OR) schedules.

Data from 499,432 elective unilateral arthroplasty procedures, including 302,490 TKAs, and 196,942 THAs, performed from 2014-2019 was extracted from the American College of Surgeons (ACS) National Surgical and Quality Improvement (NSQIP) database. A deep multilayer perceptron model was trained to predict duration of surgery (DOS) based on pre-operative clinical and biochemical patient factors. A two-stage approach, utilizing predicted DOS from a held out “test” dataset, was utilized to inform the daily OR schedule. The objective function of the optimization was the total OR utilization, with a penalty for overtime. The scheduling problem and constraints were simulated based on a high-volume elective arthroplasty centre in Canada. This approach was compared to current patient scheduling based on mean procedure DOS. Approaches were compared by performing 1000 simulated OR schedules.

The predict then optimize approach achieved an 18% increase in OR utilization over the mean regressor. The two-stage approach reduced overtime by 25-minutes per OR day, however it created a 7-minute increase in underutilization. Better objective value was seen in 85.1% of the simulations.

With deep learning prediction and mathematical optimization of patient scheduling it is possible to improve overall OR utilization compared to typical scheduling practices. Maximizing utilization of existing healthcare resources can, in limited resource environments, improve patient's access to arthritis care by increasing patient throughput, reducing surgical wait times and in the immediate future, help clear the backlog associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.