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The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 8 | Pages 872 - 879
1 Aug 2023
Ogawa T Onuma R Kristensen MT Yoshii T Fujiwara T Fushimi K Okawa A Jinno T

Aims. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between additional rehabilitation at the weekend, and in-hospital mortality and complications in patients with hip fracture who underwent surgery. Methods. A retrospective cohort study was conducted in Japan using a nationwide multicentre database from April 2010 to March 2018, including 572,181 patients who had received hip fracture surgery. Propensity score matching was performed to compare patients who received additional weekend rehabilitation at the weekend in addition to rehabilitation on weekdays after the surgery (plus-weekends group), as well as those who did not receive additional rehabilitation at the weekend but did receive weekday rehabilitation (weekdays-only group). After the propensity score matching of 259,168 cases, in-hospital mortality as the primary outcome and systemic and surgical complications as the secondary outcomes were compared between the two groups. Results. The plus-weekends group was significantly associated with lower in-hospital mortality rates compared with the weekdays-only group (hazard ratio 0.86; 95% confidence interval 0.8 to 0.92; p < 0.001). Systemic complications such as acute coronary syndrome, heart failure, renal failure, and sepsis were significantly lower in the plus-weekends group, whereas urinary tract infection (UTI) and surgical complications such as surgical site infection and haematoma were significantly higher in the plus-weekends group. Conclusion. Additional weekend rehabilitation was significantly associated with lower in-hospital mortality, as well as acute coronary syndrome, heart failure, renal failure, and sepsis, but was also significantly associated with a higher risk of UTI and surgical complications. This result can facilitate the effective use of the limited rehabilitation resources at the weekend and improve the clinical awareness of specific complications. To establish more robust causal associations between additional rehabilitation over the weekend and clinical outcomes, further prospective studies or randomized controlled trials with larger sample sizes are warranted. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(8):872–879


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 96-B, Issue 3 | Pages 373 - 378
1 Mar 2014
Thomas CJ Smith RP Uzoigwe CE Braybrooke JR

We retrospectively reviewed 2989 consecutive patients with a mean age of 81 (21 to 105) and a female to male ratio of 5:2 who were admitted to our hip fracture unit between July 2009 and February 2013. We compared weekday and weekend admission and weekday and weekend surgery 30-day mortality rates for hip fractures treated both surgically and conservatively. After adjusting for confounders, weekend admission was independently and significantly associated with a rise in 30-day mortality (odds ratio (OR) 1.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02 to 1.9; p = 0.039) for patients undergoing hip fracture surgery. There was no increase in mortality associated with weekend surgery (OR 1.2, 95% CI 0.8 to 1.7; p = 0.39). All hip fracture patients, whether managed surgically or conservatively, were more likely to die as an inpatient when admitted at the weekend (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.80; p = 0.032), despite our unit having a comparatively low overall inpatient mortality (8.7%). Hip fracture patients admitted over the weekend appear to have a greater risk of death despite having a consultant-led service. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014;96-B:373–8


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 99-B, Issue SUPP_12 | Pages 39 - 39
1 Jun 2017
Wilkinson J Hunt L Blom A
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With the increasing demand for hip and knee replacement, and the increasing pressure to move towards routine seven-day services within the National Health Service, the trend towards weekend operating is set to increase. We aimed to determine whether planned, elective total hip and total knee replacement performed at the weekend is associated with a different 30-day mortality versus those performed between Monday and Friday. We used National Joint Registry of England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Isle of Man (NJR) linked to Office for National Statistics (ONS) data. The study dataset comprised 118,096 joint replacement episodes performed at the weekend and 1,233,882 episodes done on a weekday. The main outcome measure was 30-day all-causes mortality. We applied a survivorship analysis using a Kaplan-Meier framework to examine the 30-day cumulative mortality rate for all elective hip and knee replacements performed in England and Wales between 1st April 2003 and 31st December 2014, with Cox proportional-hazards regression models to assess for time-dependent variation and adjust for identified risk factors for mortality. For hip replacement the cumulative 30-day mortality was 0.15% (95%CI: 0.12–0.19) for patients operated on at the weekend versus 0.20% (0.19–0.21) for patients undergoing surgery during the normal working week. For knee replacement the cumulative 30-day mortality was 0.14% (0.11–0.17) for patients operated on at the weekend versus 0.18% (0.17–0.19) for patients undergoing surgery during the normal working week. The lower mortality associated with weekend operating was most apparent in the later years of the audit (2009 to 2014) and remained after adjustment for any differences in patient age, gender, American Society of Anaesthesiologist grade, surgeon seniority, surgical and anaesthetic practices, and thrombo-prophylaxis choice in weekend versus weekday operated patients. Hip and knee replacements are routinely performed on Saturdays, and to a lesser extent on Sundays, in England and Wales and are not associated with an increased risk of post-operative mortality


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 100-B, Issue SUPP_1 | Pages 43 - 43
1 Jan 2018
Wilkinson J Hunt L Blom A
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With the increasing demand for hip and knee replacement and move towards seven-day services, we examined whether this planned, elective surgery performed at the weekend is associated with a different 30-day mortality versus that performed between Monday and Friday. The study dataset comprised 118,096 joint replacement episodes performed at the weekend and 1,233,882 episodes done on a weekday. We used a Kaplan-Meier framework to examine the 30-day cumulative mortality rate for all elective hip and knee replacements performed in England and Wales and recorded in the NJR between 1st April 2003 and 31st December 2014, with Cox proportional-hazards regression models to assess for time-dependent variation and adjust for identified risk factors for mortality. For hip replacement the cumulative 30-day mortality was 0.15% (95%CI: 0.12–0.19) for patients operated on at the weekend versus 0.20% (0.19–0.21) for patients undergoing surgery during the normal working week. For knee replacement the cumulative 30-day mortality was 0.14% (0.11–0.17) for patients operated on at the weekend versus 0.18% (0.17–0.19) for patients undergoing surgery during the normal working week. The lower mortality associated with weekend operating was most apparent in the later years of the audit (2009 to 2014) and remained after adjustment for any differences in patient age, gender, American Society of Anaesthesiologist grade, surgeon seniority, surgical and anaesthetic practices, and thrombo-prophylaxis choice in weekend versus weekday operated patients. Routine hip and knee replacements performed at the weekend in England and Wales and are not associated with an increased risk of post-operative mortality


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 94-B, Issue SUPP_XXIX | Pages 62 - 62
1 Jul 2012
Gibbs D Tafazal S Handley R Newey M
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PURPOSE OF STUDY. We investigated the effect of weekend knee arthroplasty surgery on length of inpatient stay. METHODS. 341 consecutive patients undergoing primary total knee replacement were retrospectively identified. Of these 62 underwent surgery during the weekend. Length of inpatient stay, age, sex, pre-operative haemoglobin, ASA rating, and day of surgery were recorded. Multiple regression analysis was used to determine the effect of these preoperative factors on length of post-operative inpatient stay. RESULTS. The mean length of stay following primary knee replacement was 5.9 days, with a median 4 days (2-31). Multivariate analysis confirmed that age at operation, sex, pre-operative haemoglobin and ASA were predictive of length of stay following knee arthroplasty. The day of the operation was not predictive of length of post operative stay. DISCUSSION. The results from this study suggest age, sex, ASA and preoperative haemoglobin are predictive of inpatient hospital stay. This is consistent with previous published data. Day of surgery was not predictive of length of stay. Our results suggest that weekend knee arthroplasty surgery does not result in an increased length of inpatient stay


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 99-B, Issue 12 | Pages 1618 - 1628
1 Dec 2017
Hunt LP Blom A Wilkinson JM

Aims. To investigate whether elective joint arthroplasty performed at the weekend is associated with a different 30-day mortality versus that performed between Monday and Friday. Patients and Methods. We examined the 30-day cumulative mortality rate (Kaplan-Meier) for all elective hip and knee arthroplasties performed in England and Wales between 1st April 2003 and 31st December 2014, comprising 118 096 episodes undertaken at the weekend and 1 233 882 episodes performed on a weekday. We used Cox proportional-hazards regression models to assess for time-dependent variation and adjusted for identified risk factors for mortality. Results. The cumulative 30-day mortality for hip arthroplasty was 0.15% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.12 to 0.19) for patients operated on at the weekend versus 0.20% (95% CI 0.19 to 0.21) for patients undergoing surgery during the normal working week. For knee arthroplasty, the cumulative 30-day mortality was 0.14% (95% CI 0.11 to 0.17) for weekend-operated patients versus 0.18% (95% CI 0.17 to 0.19) for weekday-operated patients. These differences were independent of any differences in patient age, gender, American Society of Anaesthesiologists grade, surgeon seniority, surgical and anaesthetic practices, and thromboprophylaxis choice in weekend versus weekday-operated patients. Conclusion. The 30-day mortality rate after elective joint arthroplasty is low. Surgery performed at the weekend is associated with lower post-operative mortality versus operations performed on a weekday. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:1618–28


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 99-B, Issue SUPP_16 | Pages 21 - 21
1 Oct 2017
Lawrence H Clement R Topliss C
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Transferring patient data to the care of the oncoming team is the point at which the patient is most vulnerable on their journey through the healthcare system. Effective handover is vital to protect patient safety and has become increasingly more important after introduction of shift patterns for junior doctors following the implementation of the European Working Time Directive. The aim was to assess whether the introduction of a standardised proforma and traffic light system, would improve weekend handover of patients in our orthopaedic unit. Data was collected in the form of hand written data, for 3 months, in our department. This was analysed and a standardised handover sheet and traffic light system to highlight patient priority was introduced. Following a 1 week trial, the proformas were reviewed following feedback from colleagues. A re-audit was commenced and data collected for a further 2 months. There were 108 patients handed over on weekends during the re-audit compared to the 126 in the initial audit. The handover of patient data improved across all areas, with the most improved areas in recording the patients' diagnosis (58.4% to 94.4%) and noting the results of significant or pending investigations (61.2% to 91.7%). The traffic light system improved recording the patient's condition (8.5% to 81.5%) as well as logging the urgency or frequency of patient review (25.9% to 96.8%). Standardised proformas improve patient data transferred at handover and the traffic light system allows improved prioritisation of patients, thus improving patient safety at weekends


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 85-B, Issue SUPP_III | Pages 273 - 273
1 Mar 2003
Jones D
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This poster describes the separation of a pair of conjoined twins, aged 3 months. They were joined at the pelvis, shared a common hindgut and each had bladder exstrophy. The operation to separate them, done over a weekend, involved paired teams of anaesthetists, Paediatric Surgeons and Paediatric Urologists and one Orthopaedic Surgeon. The surgeons mobilised and divided the hindgut, giving one twin the distal half and the other the caecum and proximal colon. Two Urologists reconstructed the bladder exstrophies. The orthopaedic contribution was bilateral oblique pelvic osteotomy to allow midline closure, along with extensive hip releases to deal with severe flexion and abduction contractures. Both twins survived and are thriving. They have little neurological impairment in the lower limbs and therefore have great potential to walk


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 95-B, Issue SUPP_1 | Pages 8 - 8
1 Jan 2013
Khan Y Stables G Iqbal H Barnes S
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Background

A large number of Tendo-Achilles (TA) injuries occur during sporting activity. Typically occurring in males aged 30–50, whom occasionally undertake sporting activities, the so called ‘weekend warriors’.

Aims

To assess the impact of TA rupture on return to sporting activity in the non-elite athlete.


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 104-B, Issue SUPP_1 | Pages 26 - 26
1 Jan 2022
Brown O Gaukroger A Smith T Tsinaslanidis P Hing C
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Abstract. Background. Alcohol has been associated with up to 40% trauma-related deaths globally. In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, the United Kingdom (UK) entered a state of ‘lockdown’ on 23. rd. March 2020. Restrictions were most significantly eased on 1. st. June 2020, when shops and schools re-opened. This study aimed to quantify the effect of lockdown on trauma admissions specifically regarding alcohol-related trauma. Methods. All adult patients admitted as ‘trauma calls’ to a London Major Trauma Centre (MTC) during April 2018 and April 2019 (pre-lockdown; N=316), and 1. st. April – 31. st. May 2020 (lockdown; N=191) had electronic patient records (EPR) analysed. Patients’ blood alcohol level (BAC) combined with records of intoxication were used to identify alcohol-related trauma. Multiple regression analyses were performed to compare pre- and post-lockdown alcohol-related trauma admissions. Results. Alcohol-related trauma was present in a significantly higher proportion of adult trauma calls during lockdown (lockdown 60/191 (31.4%), versus pre-lockdown 62/316 (19.6%); Odds Ratio (OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.38 to 1.28, p<0.001). Lockdown was also associated with increased weekend admissions of trauma (lockdown 125/191 weekend (65.5%) vs pre-lockdown 179/316 (56.7%); OR -0.40, 95% CI -0.79 to -0.02, p=0.041). No significant difference existed between the age, gender, or mechanism between pre-lockdown and lockdown cohorts (p>0.05). Conclusion. UK lockdown was independently associated with an increased proportion of alcohol-related trauma. Furthermore, trauma admissions were increased during the weekend when staffing levels are reduced. With the possibility of multiple global ‘waves’ of Covid-19, the risk of long-term repercussions of dangerous alcohol-related behaviour must be addressed


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 105-B, Issue SUPP_15 | Pages 3 - 3
7 Nov 2023
Leslie K Matshidza S
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Intimate partner violence (IPV) causes significant morbidity and its unlikely to be reported compared to other forms of gender-based violence (GBV). For early detection, understanding Orthopaedic injuries from GBV is vital. This study assesses the pattern of musculoskeletal injuries from GBV and determines the factors associated with it. It is a retrospective observational study of patients aged ≥18 years, with GBV-related acute Orthopaedic injuries. Data was reviewed from January 2021 to December 2021, including, demographic information, soft tissue and bony injuries, relationship to assailant, substance abuse and the day and time of injury. Frequencies and percentages for categorical data were analysed. Chi-square test was used to calculate association. T-test was used to compare groups for continuous & categorical variables. Multivariate analysis was conducted to find the odds ratio and a p-value <0.05 was statistically significant. 138 patients were included, the mean age at presentation being 35.02 years (SD=11). 92.75% of GBV victims were females. Most were unemployed (66.7%). 30.43% (n-42) had a soft tissue injury; superficial laceration being the most common (23.1%), flexor tendon injury (10.87%), hand abscess (5.8%), and extensor tendon injury (5.07%). 71.02 % (n=98) sustained appendicular fractures. 51.45% (n=71) sustained upper limb fractures; distal radius fractures (10.86%) and distal 3rd ulnar fractures (9,42%). 19.57% (n=27) had lower limb fractures; 7.25% (n=10) had lateral malleolus ankle fractures. 63.7% (n=80) of cases were by an intimate partner on weekends (50.73%). 62.31% occurred between 16h00 and 0h00. 41.1% (n=65) reported alcohol abuse. 63.04% had surgery. GBV likely occurs in early middle-aged females by intimate partners influenced by alcohol over the weekends between 16h00 to 0h00. Distal radius/distal 3rd ulnar fractures are the most common bony injuries. Superficial wrist laceration is the commonest soft tissue injury. These findings may assist with early detection and intervention to prevent adverse outcomes in GBV


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 10 | Pages 1060 - 1069
1 Oct 2023
Holleyman RJ Jameson SS Reed M Meek RMD Khanduja V Hamer A Judge A Board T

Aims. This study describes the variation in the annual volumes of revision hip arthroplasty (RHA) undertaken by consultant surgeons nationally, and the rate of accrual of RHA and corresponding primary hip arthroplasty (PHA) volume for new consultants entering practice. Methods. National Joint Registry (NJR) data for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, and the Isle of Man were received for 84,816 RHAs and 818,979 PHAs recorded between April 2011 and December 2019. RHA data comprised all revision procedures, including first-time revisions of PHA and any subsequent re-revisions recorded in public and private healthcare organizations. Annual procedure volumes undertaken by the responsible consultant surgeon in the 12 months prior to every index procedure were determined. We identified a cohort of ‘new’ HA consultants who commenced practice from 2012 and describe their rate of accrual of PHA and RHA experience. Results. The median annual consultant RHA volume, averaged across all cases, was 21 (interquartile range (IQR) 11 to 34; range 0 to 181). Of 1,695 consultants submitting RHA cases within the study period, the top 20% of surgeons by annual volume performed 74.2% of total RHA case volume. More than half of all consultants who had ever undertaken a RHA maintained an annual volume of just one or fewer RHA, however, collectively contributed less than 3% of the total RHA case volume. Consultant PHA and RHA volumes were positively correlated. Lower-volume surgeons were more likely to undertake RHA for urgent indications (such as infection) as a proportion of their practice, and to do so on weekends and public holidays. Conclusion. The majority of RHAs were undertaken by higher-volume surgeons. There was considerable variation in RHA volumes by indication, day of the week, and between consultants nationally. The rate of accrual of RHA experience by new consultants is low, and has important implications for establishing an experienced RHA consultant workforce. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(10):1060–1069


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 3, Issue 12 | Pages 941 - 952
23 Dec 2022
Shah A Judge A Griffin XL

Aims. Several studies have reported that patients presenting during the evening or weekend have poorer quality healthcare. Our objective was to examine how timely surgery for patients with severe open tibial fracture varies by day and time of presentation and by type of hospital. This cohort study included patients with severe open tibial fractures from the Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN). Methods. Provision of prompt surgery (debridement within 12 hours and soft-tissue coverage in 72 hours) was examined, using multivariate logistic regression to derive adjusted risk ratios (RRs). Time was categorized into three eight-hour intervals for each day of the week. The models were adjusted for treatment in a major trauma centre (MTC), sex, age, year of presentation, injury severity score, injury mechanism, and number of operations each patient received. Results. We studied 8,258 patients from 175 hospitals. Patients presenting during the day (08:00 to 15:59; risk ratio (RR) 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02 to 1.20) were more likely to receive debridement within 12 hours, and patients presenting at night (16:00 to 23:59; RR 0.56, 95% CI 0.51 to 0.62) were less likely to achieve the target; triage to a MTC had no effect. Day of presentation was associated with soft-tissue coverage within 72 hours; patients presenting on a Thursday or Friday being less likely to receive this surgery within 72 hours (Thursday RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.97; Friday RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.98), and the standard less likely to be achieved for those treated in ‘non-MTC’ hospitals (RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.82). Conclusion. Variations in care were observed for timely surgery for severe open tibial fractures with debridement surgery affected by time of presentation and soft-tissue coverage affected by day of presentation and type of hospital. The variation is unwarranted and highlights that there are opportunities to substantially improve the delivery and quality of care for patients with severe open tibial fracture. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(12):941–952


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 106-B, Issue SUPP_14 | Pages 6 - 6
23 Jul 2024
Mohammed F Soler A
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Trauma, across the United Kingdom, is managed using several software, paper based lists on Microsoft Word/Excel or Teams. There is usually poor handover or no handover in a standard format- during the on call, in the trauma meetings or in the wards. The software in the market for trauma management are not cost friendly or adaptable to local demands. The alternatives like Microsoft WORD based lists are fraught with their own problems. We endeavoured to make our trauma management effective. A Quality Improvement Project was done. The goals to achieve at end of a year were:. Daily Trauma Handover in standardised format >90%. Ward Handover in standardised format >90%. Availability of outcomes of patients in clinic >80%. Reduction of paper usage >90% at the end of six months. Availability of updated “outliers” information >90% at the weekend ward round. Documentation from the Trauma Meeting > 90%. On-Call documentation in standardised format >90%. Doctor Satisfaction >75% in terms of: ease of us;, searchability of patient; ward round experience; morning trauma meeting experience; handover experience; inter-specialty communication; reliability; daily time saving; on-call time saving; patient care/safety; overall satisfaction. We used Microsoft Sharepoint List to manage our trauma workload and have named the tool as “The List”. The List has achieved all objectives as above in one year's time, except Outlier information which was at 67% in a recent PDSA (Plan-Do-Study-Act) cycle. The survey showed excellent doctor satisfaction and 90% respondents felt that The List saved an hour or more during the on-call and also during the ward rounds. We conclude that The List is a very powerful tool making trauma meetings efficient and handover effective. It is indigenous, adaptable, safe, sustainable, cost neutral and easy to use


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 105-B, Issue SUPP_9 | Pages 38 - 38
17 Apr 2023
Saiz A Hideshima K Haffner M Rice M Goupil J VanderVoort W Delman C Hallare J Choi J Shieh A Eastman J Wise B Lee M
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Determine the prevalence, etiologies, and risk factors of unplanned return to the OR (UROR) in adult orthopaedic trauma patients. Retrospective review of a trauma prospective registry from 2014 – 2019 at a Level 1 academic hospital. An UROR was defined as a patient returning to OR unexpectedly following a planned definitive surgery to either readdress the presenting diagnosis or address a complication arising from the index procedure. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was performed comparing those patients with an UROR versus those without. A total of 1568 patients were reviewed. The rate of UROR was 9.8% (153 patients). Symptomatic implant was the leading cause of UROR (60%). Other significant UROR causes were infection (15%) and implant failure (9%). The median time between index procedure and UROR was 301 days. For the univariate and multivariate analysis, open fracture (p< 0.05), fracture complexity (p<0.01), and weekend procedure (p< 0.01) were all associated with increased risk of UROR. All other variables were not statistically significant for any associations. Those patients with an UROR for reasons other than symptomatic implants were more likely to have polyorthopaedic injuries (p < 0.05), ISS > 15 (p < 0.05), osteoporosis (p < 0.01), ICU status (p < 0.05), psychiatric history (p < 0.05), compartment syndrome (p < 0.05), neurovascular injury (p < 0.01), open fracture (p < 0.05), and fracture complexity (p < 0.05). The rate of UROR in the orthopaedic trauma patient population is 10%. Most of these cases are due to implant-related issues. UROR for reasons other than symptomatic implants tend to be polytraumatized patients with higher-energy injuries, multiple complex fractures, and associated soft tissue injuries. Future focus on improved implant development and treatments for polytraumatized patients with complex fractures is warranted to decrease a relatively high UROR rate in orthopaedic trauma


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 104-B, Issue SUPP_12 | Pages 90 - 90
1 Dec 2022
Abbas A Toor J Du JT Versteeg A Yee N Finkelstein J Abouali J Nousiainen M Kreder H Hall J Whyne C Larouche J
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Excessive resident duty hours (RDH) are a recognized issue with implications for physician well-being and patient safety. A major component of the RDH concern is on-call duty. While considerable work has been done to reduce resident call workload, there is a paucity of research in optimizing resident call scheduling. Call coverage is scheduled manually rather than demand-based, which generally leads to over-scheduling to prevent a service gap. Machine learning (ML) has been widely applied in other industries to prevent such issues of a supply-demand mismatch. However, the healthcare field has been slow to adopt these innovations. As such, the aim of this study was to use ML models to 1) predict demand on orthopaedic surgery residents at a level I trauma centre and 2) identify variables key to demand prediction. Daily surgical handover emails over an eight year (2012-2019) period at a level I trauma centre were collected. The following data was used to calculate demand: spine call coverage, date, and number of operating rooms (ORs), traumas, admissions and consults completed. Various ML models (linear, tree-based and neural networks) were trained to predict the workload, with their results compared to the current scheduling approach. Quality of models was determined by using the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) and accuracy of the predictions. The top ten most important variables were extracted from the most successful model. During training, the model with the highest AUC and accuracy was the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) model, with an AUC of 0.78±0.03 and accuracy of 71.7%±3.1%. During testing, the model with the highest AUC and accuracy was the neural network model, with an AUC of 0.81 and accuracy of 73.7%. All models were better than the current approach, which had an AUC of 0.50 and accuracy of 50.1%. Key variables used by the neural network model were (descending order): spine call duty, year, weekday/weekend, month, and day of the week. This was the first study attempting to use ML to predict the service demand on orthopaedic surgery residents at a major level I trauma centre. Multiple ML models were shown to be more appropriate and accurate at predicting the demand on surgical residents as compared to the current scheduling approach. Future work should look to incorporate predictive models with optimization strategies to match scheduling with demand in order to improve resident well being and patient care


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 99-B, Issue SUPP_17 | Pages 4 - 4
1 Nov 2017
Al-Ashqar M Aqil A Phillips H Sheikh H Sidhom S Chakrabarty G Dimri R
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Background. Outcomes for patients with acute illnesses may be affected by the day of the week they present to hospital. Policy makers state this ‘weekend effect’ to be the main reason for pursuing a change in consultant weekend working patterns. However, it is uncertain whether such a phenomenon exists for elective orthopaedic surgery. This study investigated whether a ‘weekend effect’ contributed to adverse outcomes in patients undergoing elective hip and knee replacements. Methods. Retrospectively collected data was obtained from our institutions electronic patient records. Using univariate analysis, we examined potential risk factors including; Age, Sex, ASA Grade, Comorbidities, as well as the day of the week surgery was undertaken. Subsequent multivariate analyses identified covariate-adjusted risk factors, associated with prolonged hospital stays. 30-day mortality data was assessed according to the day of the week surgery was performed. Results. 892 patients underwent arthroplasty surgery from 01/09/2014 till the 31/08/2015. 457 had a total hip and 435 had a total knee replacement. 814 patients (91.3%) underwent surgery during the week, while 78 patients (8.7%) had surgery on a Saturday. There was no difference in the average Length of Stay (LOS) between groups (5.0, 2.6 versus 5.0, 3.4, p=0.95), and weekend surgery was not associated with a LOS greater than 4 days. The two variables found to be associated with a prolonged LOS were; increasing age (RR) 1.02 (95% CI: 1.01–1.03, p<0.001) and an ASA score of 2, (RR) 1.6 (95% CI: 1.15– 2.20, p=0.005). There was one death in a patient who was ASA III, and who underwent surgery on a Monday. Conclusion. There is no ‘weekend effect’ for elective orthopaedic surgery. Changes in consultant weekend working patterns are unlikely to have any effect on mortality or LOS for elective orthopaedic patients


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 99-B, Issue SUPP_12 | Pages 40 - 40
1 Jun 2017
Aqil A Al-Ashqar M Phillips H Sheikh H Sidhom S Chakrabarty G Dimri R
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Outcomes for patients with acute illnesses may be affected by the day of the week they present to hospital. Policy makers state this ‘weekend effect’ to be the main reason for pursuing a change in consultant weekend working patterns. However, it is uncertain whether such a phenomenon exists for elective orthopaedic surgery. This study investigated whether a ‘weekend effect’ contributed to adverse outcomes in patients undergoing elective hip and knee replacements. Retrospectively collected data was obtained from our institutions electronic patient records. Using univariate analysis, we examined potential risk factors including; Age, Sex, ASA Grade, Comorbidities, as well as the day of the week, hospital admission and surgery occurred. Subsequent multivariate analyses identified covariate- adjusted risk factors, associated with prolonged hospital stays. 30-day mortality data was assessed according to the day of the week surgery was performed. 892 patients underwent arthroplasty surgery from 01/09/2014 till the 31/08/2015. 457 patients had a total hip and 435 had a total knee replacement. 814 patients (91.3%) underwent surgery during the week, while 78 (8.7%) had surgery on a Saturday. There was no difference in the average Length of Stay (LOS) between groups (5.0, 2.6 versus 5.0, 3.4, p=0.95), and weekend surgery was not associated with a LOS greater than 4 days. The two variables found to be associated with a prolonged LOS were; increasing age (RR) 1.02 (95% CI: 1.01–1.03, p<0.001) and an ASA score of 2, (RR) 1.6 (95% CI: 1.15 − 2.20, p=0.005). There was one death in a patient who was ASA III, and who underwent surgery on a Monday. There is no ‘weekend effect’ for elective orthopaedic surgery. Changes in consultant weekend working patterns are unlikely to have any effect on mortality or LOS for elective orthopaedic patients


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 88-B, Issue SUPP_III | Pages 433 - 433
1 Oct 2006
Gwilym S Davies N Howard PJ Willett K
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Introduction: Previous reports have highlighted the impact of emergent crazes such as in-line skating and micro-scooters, with attention being drawn to potential accident prevention and emergent injury patterns. A modern craze is the Harry Potter series of books. UK sales of the latest book, The Half-Blood Prince, are estimated to reach 4 million. Given the lack of horizontal velocity, height, wheels or sharp edges we were interested to investigate the impact the books had on children’s traumatic injuries. Methods & Materials: A retrospective review was undertaken of Children aged 7 to 15 attending the Emergency Department of our Level 1 trauma unit over the summer months of a 3 year period. The launch dates of the most recent two books (Order of the Phoenix and The Half-Blood prince) were identified and the admissions for these weekends were compared to surrounding summer weekends and those dates in previous years. Data were obtained from MetOffice (. www.metoffice.gov.uk. ) to establish weather conditions recorded for each of the identified weekends. This would enable us to adjust for this as a confounding variable if necessary. Results: The mean attendance for children aged 7 to 15 years for this period was 65.1 (median 66, standard deviation 13.289, standard error 2.771). For the two intervention weekends the attendance rate was 36 and 37. This represents a significant decrease in emergency department attendances on those weekends (p < 0.05). MetOffice data suggested no confounding effect of weather. Discussion & Conclusion: Harry Potter books appear to protect children from traumatic injuries. The Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents (rospa.org.uk) is dedicated to the identification and prevention of high risk childhood activities and produce guidelines on keeping children safe. To date no research has addressed the option of ‘distraction therapy’ to prevent injuries


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 98-B, Issue 5 | Pages 654 - 659
1 May 2016
Garala K Taub NA Dias JJ

Aims. This study explores the epidemiology of patients with a fracture of the scaphoid presenting to a regional teaching hospital. Patients and Methods. All patients with a confirmed fracture of the scaphoid over a retrospective period between January 2010 and May 2013 were included. Their demographics, deprivation status and when the fracture occurred was noted and assessed. There were 415 fractures in 365 males and 50 females. Results. The incidence of fracture of the scaphoid was 12.4 in 100 000 each year in the general population. The mean age of the patients was 22 years (nine to 35); the highest incidence was in males aged between 15 and 19 years. We calculate the annual incidence in the United Kingdom to be 7265 each year. Patients with the lowest socioeconomic status had an incidence of 18.57 in 100 000 whereas the least deprived patients had an incidence of 9.98 (p < 0.001). There was evidence of a seasonal trend (p = 0.022) with the highest monthly rate found in June (16.96 in 100 000 each year) and the lowest was in December (7.61 in 100 000 each year). There were significantly fewer presentations of fracture at the weekend (p <  0.001), and the highest incidence was on Mondays. Most fractures occurred at the waist (64%) and tubercle (18.1%). Take home message: In this large-scale epidemiological study, we confirmed that young men are most at risk of sustaining a fracture of the scaphoid, and report new factors in relation to social deprivation and seasonality that influence scaphoid fractures. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:654–9