Aims. The aim of this study was to assess whether supine flexibility predicts the likelihood of curve progression in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) undergoing brace treatment. Methods. This was a retrospective analysis of patients with AIS prescribed with an underarm brace between September 2008 to April 2013 and followed up until 18 years of age or required surgery. Patients with structural proximal curves that preclude underarm bracing, those who were lost to follow-up, and those who had poor compliance to bracing (<16 hours a day) were excluded. The major curve Cobb angle, curve type, and location were measured on the pre-brace standing posteroanterior (PA) radiograph, supine whole spine radiograph, initial in-brace standing PA radiograph, and the post-brace weaning standing PA radiograph. Validation of the previous in-brace Cobb angle regression model was performed. The outcome of curve progression post-bracing was tested using a logistic regression model. The supine flexibility cut-off for curve progression was analyzed with receiver operating characteristic curve. Results. A total of 586 patients with mean age of 12.6 years (SD 1.2) remained for analysis after exclusion. The baseline Cobb angle was similar for thoracic major curves (31.6° (SD 3.8°)) and lumbar major curves (30.3° (SD 3.7°)). Curve progression was more common in the thoracic curves than lumbar curves with mean final Cobb angles of 40.5° (SD 12.5°) and 31.8° (SD 9.8°) respectively. This dataset matched the prediction model for in-brace Cobb angle with less mean absolute error in thoracic curves (0.61) as compared to lumbar curves (1.04). Reduced age and Risser stage, thoracic curves, increased pre-brace Cobb angle, and reduced correction and flexibility rates predicted increased likelihood of curve progression. Flexibility rate of more than 28% has likelihood of preventing curve progression with bracing. Conclusion. Supine radiographs provide satisfactory prediction for in-brace correction and post-bracing curve magnitude. The flexibility of the curve is a guide to determine the likelihood for brace success. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(2):254–260

Aims. The aim of this study was to review the current evidence surrounding curve type and morphology on curve progression risk in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Methods. A comprehensive search was conducted by two independent reviewers on PubMed, Embase, Medline, and Web of Science to obtain all published information on morphological predictors of AIS progression. Search items included ‘adolescent idiopathic scoliosis’, ‘progression’, and ‘imaging’. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were carefully defined. Risk of bias of studies was assessed with the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool, and level of evidence for each predictor was rated with the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) approach. In all, 6,286 publications were identified with 3,598 being subjected to secondary scrutiny. Ultimately, 26 publications (25 datasets) were included in this review. Results. For unbraced patients, high and moderate evidence was found for Cobb angle and curve type as predictors, respectively. Initial Cobb angle > 25° and thoracic curves were predictive of curve progression. For braced patients, flexibility < 28% and limited in-brace correction were factors predictive of progression with high and moderate evidence, respectively. Thoracic curves, high apical vertebral rotation, large rib vertebra angle difference, small rib vertebra angle on the convex side, and low pelvic tilt had weak evidence as predictors of curve progression. Conclusion. For curve progression, strong and consistent evidence is found for Cobb angle, curve type, flexibility, and correction rate. Cobb angle > 25° and flexibility < 28% are found to be important thresholds to guide clinical prognostication. Despite the low evidence, apical vertebral rotation, rib morphology, and pelvic tilt may be promising factors. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):424–432

Aims. This systematic review aims to identify 3D predictors derived from biplanar reconstruction, and to describe current methods for improving curve prediction in patients with mild adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Methods. A comprehensive search was conducted by three independent investigators on MEDLINE, PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library. Search terms included “adolescent idiopathic scoliosis”,“3D”, and “progression”. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were carefully defined to include clinical studies. Risk of bias was assessed with the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool (QUIPS) and Appraisal tool for Cross-Sectional Studies (AXIS), and level of evidence for each predictor was rated with the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations (GRADE) approach. In all, 915 publications were identified, with 377 articles subjected to full-text screening; overall, 31 articles were included. Results. Torsion index (TI) and apical vertebral rotation (AVR) were identified as accurate predictors of curve progression in early visits. Initial TI > 3.7° and AVR > 5.8° were predictive of curve progression. Thoracic hypokyphosis was inconsistently observed in progressive curves with weak evidence. While sagittal wedging was observed in mild curves, there is insufficient evidence for its correlation with curve progression. In curves with initial Cobb angle < 25°, Cobb angle was a poor predictor for future curve progression. Prediction accuracy was improved by incorporating serial reconstructions in stepwise layers. However, a lack of post-hoc analysis was identified in studies involving geometrical models. Conclusion. For patients with mild curves, TI and AVR were identified as predictors of curve progression, with TI > 3.7° and AVR > 5.8° found to be important thresholds. Cobb angle acts as a poor predictor in mild curves, and more investigations are required to assess thoracic kyphosis and wedging as predictors. Cumulative reconstruction of radiographs improves prediction accuracy. Comprehensive analysis between progressive and non-progressive curves is recommended to extract meaningful thresholds for clinical prognostication. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(3):243–251

Study Design: Prospective cohort study. Objective: To determine the rate of curve progression and factors related to curve progression in untreated adolescent idiopathic scoliosis in a prospective cohort study within a national school screening program. Methods: Over 140,000 school children are screened annually in Singapore for common health conditions, including scoliosis. In 1996–97, a randomized sample in four age groups consisting of 72,699 children was enrolled in a scoliosis prevalence study, 263 were found to have spinal curvatures of 10 degrees or more. After exclusions, 250 children were followed up over a five year period up to 2001–02. Basic demographic data, age at menarche or break of voice, scoliometer reading, curve type, Cobb angle, curve rotation, and Risser grade were recorded. Curve progression was correlated to individual factors such as age, sex, puberty, curve type and magnitude as well as combinations of factors. Results: Overall, 28% of the 250 curves progressed. Age at diagnosis, sex, pre-menarche status, and curve magnitude were statistically correlated to curve progression. Taking curve magnitude and age together, 53% of 11–12 year-olds with curves 20 degrees or more progressed compared to 10% of 13–14 year-olds with curves less than 20 degrees. 56% of children with curves 20 degrees or more and Risser grades 0–2 progressed, compared to 17% with curves less than 20 degrees and Risser grades 3–5. Combining curve magnitude, age, sex, and puberty together, a pre-pubertal female under 13 years old with a curve of 25 degrees or more has a 70% chance of curve progression. In comparison, a post-pubertal female older than 13 years of age and a curve of less than 25 degrees has only a 10% chance of progression. Curve progression in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis has been reported to vary from 5.2% to 56%, with the lower rates being found in school screening studies. Nachemson et al (1982) reported that 10–12 year old girls with untreated scoliosis of 20–29 degrees had a 60% risk of curve progression. Lonstein and Carlson (1984) reported progression in 23.2% of untreated children and that curve magnitude, skeletal immaturity, and curve pattern were associated with progression. Conclusions: Our findings are similar, with pre-pubertal females under the age of 13 years old and with large curves at diagnosis having the greatest risk of progression

Introduction: The natural history of idiopathic scoliosis is not well understood. Previous reports focused on characteristics of curve progression pre-defined at 5–6 degrees. However, the absolute curve magnitude at skeletal maturity is more predictive of long-term curve behavior rather than progression of defined magnitude over shorter periods of growth. It is generally agreed that curves < 30 degrees are unlikely to progress after skeletal maturity. Hence, defining factors that influence curve progression to an absolute magnitude of ≥30 degrees at skeletal maturity significantly aids clinical decision-making. Methods: Of 279 patients with idiopathic scoliosis detected by school screening of 72,699 adolescents, 186 fulfilled the study criteria and were followed up to skeletal maturity. Initial age, gender, pubertal status and initial curve magnitude were used as predictive factors for curve progression to ≥30 degrees at skeletal maturity. Uni and multivariate, logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed. Results: Curve magnitude at first presentation was the most important predictive factor for curve progression to ≥30 degrees at skeletal maturity. An initial curve of 25 degrees had the best ROC of 0.8 with a positive predictive value of 68% and a negative predictive value of 92% for progression to ≥30 degrees at skeletal maturity. The highest risk was a pre-pubertal female < 12 years of age with a Cobb of ≥25 degrees at presentation; with an 82% chance of progression to a Cobb of ≥30 degrees. Probability of progression to ≥30 degrees was defined by 1/(1 + exp (−z)). [z = −3.709 + 0.931(Gender) + 0.825(Puberty) + 3.314(Cobb) + 0.171(Age)]. Conclusions: Initial curve magnitude is the most important independent predictor of long-term curve progression past skeletal maturity. An initial Cobb of 25 degrees is an important threshold. Combined with other factors, we identify patient profiles with high or low risk for progression

Natural history of AIS >30° in skeletally mature patients is poorly defined. Studies reporting rates and risk factors for progression are predominantly of large curves in immature patients. Our aim was to determine the rate of curve progression in AIS following skeletal maturity, any associated changes in SRS-22 scores, and identify any potential predictors of curve progression. Patients enrolled in a prospective, longitudinal, multicentre non-surgical AIS database were evaluated. All patients had minimum 2 year follow-up, idiopathic scoliosis >30°, and were skeletally mature. SRS-22 functional outcome scores and radiographic data were compared at baseline and 2-year follow-up. Patients were divided into 3 groups based on curve size: A=30°-39°, B=40°-49°, C= >50°. Curve progression was defined as any change in curve magnitude. There were 80 patients, majority females (93.8%) with a mean age of 16.5+/−0.16. Mean BMI was 21+/−0.31 with 15.1% overweight. Mean major cobb at baseline was 38.3°+/−0.88°. At 2 year follow-up 46.3% of curves had progressed an average 3.4°+/−0.38°. Of curves that progressed, patients in group A had the largest mean rate of progression followed by group B. SRS-22 scores on average declined significantly over 2 years in this cohort (4.23 to 4.08; p=0.002). Patients who progressed had on average a more significant decline in SRS outcome scores compared to those that did not (p=0.018, p=0.041 respectively), with the most significant change noted in the Self-Image domain (p=0.03). There was no significant difference in the change in SRS scores over 2 years based on curve size. Univariate analysis did not identify any factors predictive of curve progression in this cohort. Skeletally mature patients with AIS >30°may continue to have a risk of progression at a mean rate of 1.7°/yr and significant decline in SRS-22 outcome scores, in particular Pain and Self-Image, over time

Introduction. Idiopathic scoliosis is a lateral curvature of the spine >10° as measured on a frontal plane radiograph by the Cobb angle. Important variables in assessing the risk of curve progression include a young age at presentation, female sex, a large amount of growth remaining, the rate of growth, the curve magnitude, and the curve location. Curves >20° have an inherently low risk of progression. Surgery is indicated for curves >50° or rapidly progressing curves. The timing of surgery is paramount in order to intervene in cases where rapid progression is evident to prevent further deterioration. There is a greater likelihood for more complex surgery to be required in major curves. At present, there are severe restrictions on resources to cater for patients with scoliosis. As a result, patients spend excessive periods on waiting lists prior to having their procedure. The aim of this study is to analyse the progression of curves of patients while on the waiting list and assess the cost implications of curve deterioration. Methods. A retrospective analysis of 40 cases of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis performed from between 2007-2010 was carried out. All radiographs at the time of being placed on the waiting list and the time of admission were reviewed to assess the Cobb angle. The radiographs were analysed independently by three spinal surgeons to determine what level of surgical intervention they would recommend at each time point. The final procedure performed was also recorded. A cost analysis was carried out of all of the expenses that are incurred as part of scoliosis surgery, including length of hospital stay, intensive care admission, spinal monitoring, implant cost, and the requirement for multiple procedures. Results. The average time on the waiting list was 12 months (range 6 – 16 months). Comparison of radiographs at the time of listing and time of admission revealed a deterioration of the Cobb angle by an average of 12°. The average Cobb angle at time of surgery was 78° (range 55° - 96°). Analysis of cost implications revealed an increase in cost based on implant requirements, length of stay and intensive care admission estimated at 25%. Conclusion. The results of this study demonstrate that there is a significant deterioration of scoliosis curvature in patients while on the waiting list. The consequence of this progression results in longer operative time, increased requirement for intensive care beds, an increase in requirements for additional levels of pedicle instrument, and a prolonged length of stay. The implications of the deterioration in curvature result in an increase in overall cost estimated at 25%. Waiting list initiatives established over the past 6 months have reduced the waiting list to 6-9 months. Further efforts to continue this initiative are likely to give rise to further cost reductions and result in more manageable curvatures being dealt with in a timely fashion

Introduction. The main challenge in management of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) is to predict which curve will progress so that appropriate treatment can be given. We previously reported that low bone mineral density (BMD) was one of the adverse prognostic factors for AIS. With advancement in imaging technology, quantitative ultrasound (QUS) becomes a useful method to assess bone density and bone quality. The objective of this study was to assess the role of QUS as a radiation-free method to predict curve progression in AIS. Methods. 294 girls with AIS were recruited at ages 11–16 years and followed up until skeletal maturity. 269 age-matched healthy girls were recruited as controls. They provided the normal reference for calculation of Z score for QUS parameters. QUS measurements, including BUA (broadband ultrasound attenuation), VOS (velocity of sound) and SI (stiffness index) of the calcaneum, BMD of femoral neck, menarche history, ages, and Cobb angle of the major curve were recorded at baseline as independent variables. The predictive outcome was curve progression defined as an increase of Cobb angle of 6° or more. Logistic regression model and the ROC curve were used for statistical analysis. Results. Mean follow-up was 3·4 years (SD 1·57). At baseline, mean age was 13·4 years (1·23), 73 (24·8%) patients were premenarchal, and mean Cobb angle was 26·3° (SD 8·2°). 202 (68·7%), 194 (66%), and 202 (68·7%) of patients with AIS had Z score of BUA, VOS, and SI of 0 or less, respectively. Initial univariate analysis indicated all independent variables had p values less than 0.2. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the p values of their regression coefficients were: age (p<0·001), menarchal status (p<0·001), Cobb angle (p=0·008), BMD (p=0·084), BUA (p=0·722), VOS (p=0·112), and SI (p=0·027). SI, age, menarchal status, and Cobb angle were therefore included in the final prediction equation. The adjusted odds ratio for Z score of SI of 0 or less was 2·00 (95% CI 1·08–3·71). The area under the ROC curve was 0·831(95% CI 0·785–0·877). The predictive model had a sensitivity of 0·847 and a specificity of 0·665 at a probability cutoff of 0·368. Conclusions. We recorded evidence of deranged bone density and bone quality in AIS, as indicated by QUS investigation. SI is an independent and significant prognostic factor for AIS. It can be used as a radiation-free parameter to predict curve progression in combination with initial Cobb angle, age, and menarchal status, especially when DXA is not available. Acknowledgments. This study is supported by Research Grant Council—The government of HKSAR (project number CUHK4498/06M)

Purpose: To report long-term results (with a minimum follow-up of 13 years) of GR construct [Luque-trolley (LT)] in EOS, to identify factors predictive of curve progression and to establish the timing of definitive fusion. Method: The study cohort consisted of 37 patients (22M & 15F) who had primary LT between 1983–1995 were reviewed. Group I: 7 patients had LT alone and Group II: 30 had LT with convex fusion. Cobb at initial presentation, after first surgery, before definitive fusion and at the latest follow-up was recorded. Other radiological curve parameters recorded were rib spinal angle difference (RSAD), end vertebral tilts (EVT), apical vertebral rotation (AVR) and T1-S1 length. Complications with respect to development of junctional/apical kyphosis, implant failure, pseudoarthrosis (PA), sagittal/coronal profile and instrumented spinal segment growth at maturity were evaluated. Results: The mean age at definitive fusion for study cohort was 12.5 years. Group I: Mean age at first surgery was 7.4 years (3.3–9.5y). Mean pre-op Cobb angle of primary curve was 600 (310–710) which was corrected to 280 (200–360). They underwent definitive segmental spinal instrumentation(SSI) with fusion at 13.9 years (9.8–15.1y) when the curve had worsened to 480 (400–650). Group II: Mean age at index surgery was 3.6 years (1.6–8.8y). Mean pre-op Cobb of primary curve was 580 (300–900) which corrected to 300 (100–620). 16/30 patients underwent definitive SSI with fusion at 11.5 years (8.5–14.2y) when the curve deteriorated to 600 (530–770). Instrumented segmental spinal growth was 3.2cms (SD±1.45; range 1–5cms). 14/30 maintained their correction till skeletal maturity. JK was observed in 8 cases [proximal(3), distal(2) & apical(3)] which were corrected at the time of definitive SSI. There was a linear relationship between Cobb angle at definitive fusion with concaveRSA and upperEVT. Conclusion: Correlation and regression statistics revealed predictive factors of curve progression to be concave RSA (®=0.91 & p=0.001) and upper EVT (®=0.81 & p=0.0004). Patients with high concave RSA and upper EVT should be closely monitored for deterioration. Spinal growth that exceeds the capacity of LT to elongate leads to apical kyphosis. Timing of definitive fusion is influenced by growth velocity, clinico-radiological factors and complications

Objective: To clarify whether serum melatonin levels in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis correlate with curve progression, and whether the exogenous melatonin treatment is effective in patients with decreased levels of endogenous melatonin in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Method: A total of 63 adolescents were studied; 38 with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis and 25 age matched control subjects. We divided the patients into stable (28 patients) and progressive (10 patients) groups based on the scoliotic curve measured radiographically at three to six month intervals. The level of melatonin was considered low if it fell below the mean – 2.0 standard deviation established in normal adolescents throughout the 24 hour period or nocturnal (0:00 – 6:00 hour) integrated concentration. Oral melatonin replacement (3mg / before bedding) was administered in patients with decreased endogenous melatonin. The patients with low melatonin were treated with a brace, melatonin or both combined. During melatonin treatment, the level of melatonin was measured yearly for a period ranging from three to six years. Results: In all subjects the melatonin levels showed diurnal variations; low during the day and high at night. Of 38 patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis, 22 patients had normal melatonin and 16 had low melatonin. Of 22 patients with a normal melatonin, 10 of 15 treated with brace and 6 of 7 untreated patients had stable scoliosis, and the remaining six had a progressive scoliosis. Of 16 patients with low melatonin, eight of nine treated only with melatonin, and four of seven treated with melatonin and brace had stable scoliosis. The remaining four had a progressive course. Of the 10 patients who had progressive scoliosis in normal and low levels of melatonin, nine had greater than 40 degrees of curve at the initial examination. Conclusion: These findings suggest that transient melatonin deficiency may be associated with deterioration of scoliosis and that melatonin level may serve as a useful predictor for progression of spine curvature in patients with idiopathic scoliosis. Also, the results of this study suggest a possible role of melatonin supplement in the prevention of progressive scoliosis especially in mild cases showing less than a 40° curve. Supported by the Fondation Yves Cotrel, Institut de France

While previous studies have highlighted possible aetiological factors for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS), research employing gait measurements have demonstrated asymmetries in the ground reaction forces, suggesting a relationship between these asymmetries, neurological dysfunction and spinal deformity. Furthermore, investigations have indicated that the kinematic differences in various body segments may be a major contributing factor. This investigation, which formed part of a wider comprehensive study, was aimed at identifying asymmetries in lower limb kinematics and pelvic and back movements during level walking in scoliotic subjects that could be related to the spinal deformity. Additionally, the study examined the time domain parameters of the various components of ground reaction force together with the centre of pressure (CoP) pattern, assessed during level walking, which could be related to the spinal deformity. Although previous studies indicate that force platforms provide good estimation of the static balance of individuals, there remains a paucity of information on dynamic balance during walking. In addition, while research has documented the use of CoP and net joint moments in gait assessment and have assessed centre of mass (CoM)–CoP distance relationships in clinical conditions, there is little information relating to the moments about CoM. Hence, one of the objectives of the present study was to assess and establish the asymmetry in the CoP pattern and moments about CoM during level walking and its relationship to spinal deformity.

The investigation employed a six camera movement analysis system and a strain gauge force platform in order to estimate time domain kinetic parameters and other kinematic parameters in the lower extremities, pelvis and back. 16 patients with varying degrees of deformity, scheduled for surgery within a week took part in the study. The data for the right and left foot was collected from separate trials of normal walking. CoP was then estimated using the force and moment components from the force platform.

Results indicate differences across the subjects depending on the laterality of the major curve. There is an evidence of a relationship between the medio-lateral direction CoP and the laterality of both the main and compensation curves. This is not evident in the anterior-posterior direction. Similar results were recorded for moments about CoM. Subjects with a higher left compensation curve had greater deviation to the left. Furthermore, the results show that the variables identified in this study can be applied to initial screening and surgical evaluation of spinal deformities such as scoliosis. Further studies are being undertaken to validate these findings.

The standard approach of diagnosing and monitoring scoliosis involves using the Cobb angle from posteroanterior (PA) radiograph. This approach has two key limitations: 1) It involves exposing the patients to ionising radiation during a period of heightened radiosensitivity. 2) The 2D x-ray image is a projection image of a 3D deformity and the Cobb angle represents only lateral rotation. 3DUS would overcome both these limitations.

We developed a 3DUS system by combining motion capture technology, a conventional 2D ultrasound scanner and bespoke software. An ex vivo experiment and a pilot clinical study were carried out to demonstrate the system's ability in identifying vertebrae landmarks and quantifying the curvature. For the ex vivo validation, a spine phantom was created by 3D-printing a segmented abdo-pelvis CT scan. The spine phantom was then scanned using 3DUS and the level of agreement in the dimensions measured using 3DUS and CT was assessed. An 11 year old female with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) was scanned with 3DUS. The SP co-ordinates were projected on a plane of best-fit to compare the curvature angle from 3DUS with the Cobb angle from the x-ray image.

The spinous (SP), transverse processes and the laminae demonstrated high echogenicity and were easily identifiable. The difference between the spine phantom inter-SP dimension measurements made in 3DUS and CT was <2.5%. The PA x-ray of the AIS patient revealed 47° (L4-T11) and 52° (T6-T11) curves. 3DUS was able to represent the deformity in 3D revealing complex curvatures in all planes. The curvature angle from derived from 3DUS for the L4-T11 and T6-T11 curves were 132° (48°) and 125° (55°) respectively.

The results of this pilot study demonstrate 3DUS as a promising tool for imaging spine curvature

Background: To assess the potential for Quantec imaging to save radiographs in the follow-up of patients with early onset scoliosis. This is a group of patients who often have many radiographs due their age at diagnosis.

Methods: This is a prospective cohort study. Twenty-four children with early onset scoliosis are identified. They all have a minimum of three simultaneous radiographs and Quantec scans as part of routine follow up for their scoliosis curves. There are 15 males and 9 females (22 thoracic, 1 thoracolumbar, 1 lumbar). Mean age at diagnosis is 3 years (range 1–4.8 years). The Cobb angle of the major curve is measured from each radiograph and compared with the Q-angle using Bland-Altman plots and linear regression analysis.

Results: The mean Cobb angle was 30° and the mean Q-angle 19°. The correlation coefficient was 0.68 (p< 0.05). In curves with Cobb angle < 30°, The Bland-Altman plots show a close scatter with a mean difference of 3.4°. It was calculated that this could have safely saved 18 radiographs in 14 patients. In curves > 30°, there was a large scatter and a mean difference between Cobb angle and Q-angle of 20.1°.

Conclusion: In early onset scoliosis, curves with Cobb angle less than 30° can be safely followed clinically and with the Q-scan reducing the number of radiographs required. Curves with Cobb angle greater than 30° cannot be reliably observed with Quantec scans alone.

Aim: We present a new trunk asymmetry index for topographic measurement of patients with thoracolumbar scoliosis, which does not require full 3-dimensional reconstruction of the back shape and can be performed with a digital camera and a laptop.

Material and methods: To date, 27 patients were assessed preoperatively, and 14 of these also had post operative assessments. The midline was identified between the two lateral edges of the trunk visible on a digital photograph. This was compared with a straight line. We derived an asymmetry index for each image and compared this with the cobb angle on x-rays pre- and postoperatively.

Results: The new asymmetry index correlated well with the cobb angle up to about 50°. Curves beyond this tended to have compensatory curves. This made interpretation more complex, however, if the compensatory cobb angle was subtracted from the major cobb angle, the asymmetry index fell at the expected points. It clearly distinguishes pre-operative and post-operative images. With POTSI, (posterior trunk symmetry index) there is a significant difference between the pre- and post-operative groups and significant overlap of the two distributions.

Conclusions: Surface topography of scoliotic patients is a useful tool to assess the progression of scoliosis without X-rays, reducing radiation exposure. The proposed new index is a promising measurement for monitoring the progress of a thoracolumbar curve with much better sensitivity and specificity than existing topographic indices, without requiring the capital outlay for surface topography equipment as it can be obtained from a simple digtal photograph and laptop.

Plain radiography has traditionally been used to investigate and monitor patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. The X-ray allows a calculation of the Cobb angle which measures the degree of lateral curvature in the coronal plane. ISIS2 is a surface topography system which has evolved from ISIS, but with much higher precision and speed. It measures the three dimensional shape of the back using structured light and digital photography. This system has the benefit of not requiring any radiation. Lateral asymmetry is the ISIS clinical parameter estimating the curve of the spine in the coronal plane. The aim of this study was to compare this parameter to the Cobb angle measured on plain X-ray.

Twelve patients with idiopathic adolescent scoliosis underwent both a standing AP spine X-ray and an ISIS2 scan on multiple occasions. Both scan and X-ray were done within one month of each other. No patient underwent surgery during the study period. The Cobb angle and the degree of lateral asymmetry were calculated.

Twelve patients mean age 12.5 years (range 10-16) were investigated using both ISIS2 and X-ray. They had a mean 2.3 (1-5) combined investigations allowing for 30 comparisons. The correlation between the two measurements was r =0.63 (p=0.0002). The Cobb angle measured on ISIS2 was less than that measured by radiograph in 27 out of 30 comparisons. The mean difference between the measurements was mean 6.4° with a standard deviation of 8.2° and 95% confidence interval of 3.3° to 9.4°.

In adolescent idiopathic scoliosis, curve severity and rib hump severity are related but measure different aspects of spinal deformity. As expected, these relate closely but not precisely. ISIS2 offers the promise of monitoring scoliosis precisely, without adverse effects from radiation. The small numbers in this series focus on the group of patients with mild to moderate curves at risk of progression. In this group, ISIS2 was able to identify curve stability or progression, without exposing the subjects to radiation.

Nachemson [2] drawing upon the theses of Sahlstrand [3] and Lidström [4] articulated the view there are more girls than boys with progressive AIS for the following reason. The maturation of postural mechanisms in the nervous system is complete about the same time in boys and girls. Girls enter their skeletal adolescent growth spurt with immature postural mechanisms – so if they have a predisposition to develop a scoliosis curve, the spine deforms. In contrast, boys enter their adolescent growth spurt with mature postural mechanisms so they are protected from developing a scoliosis curve. We term Nachemson’s concept the neuro-osseous timing of maturation (NOTOM) hypothesis [1,5] The earlier sexual and skeletal maturation of girls may have an evolutionary basis through natural selection. Curve progression in AIS is associated with acceleration of the adolescent growth spurt [6]. Postural sway involves proprioceptive, vestibular and visual input to the central nervous system. In normal children there is a significant reduction in postural sway amplitude between six to nine years and 10–14 years [7,8]. In 1071 normal children aged 6–14 years postural sway is more stable in girls from 6–9 years and over 10 years there is no sex effect [9]; all these findings fit the Nachemson concept. But in view of a subsequent report on 64 normal children aged 3–17 years showing the change with age is limited to boys [10] the age and sex effect of postural sway in healthy children needs further evaluation. In AIS children stabilometry findings are conflicting and observed greater postural sway may be secondary to the curve. In the siblings of scoliotics Lidström et al [11] concluded that postural aberration is a factor in the aetiology of AIS. Conclusion: The NOTOM hypothesis suggests a treatment to prevent progression of late-juvenile idiopathic scoliosis, early-AIS, and some secondary scolioses. It is based on delaying the onset of the adolescent growth spurt and puberty as used therapeutically in children with idiopathic precocious puberty (IPP)[12]. The proposal is to administer a gonadorelin analogue which in the pituitary down-regulates receptors to hypothalamic gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) causing a fall in both luteinizing hormone (LH) and follicle-stimulating stimulating hormone (FSH); in turn this causes a fall in oestrogens and androgens and thereby delays or stops menarche and slows bone growth – as in girls and boys with IPP [13]. Expert paediatric opinion is supportive. King [14] has suggested the use of a gonadorelin analogue (Lupron) to delay the onset of the adolescent growth spurt in progressive AIS

Nachemson (1996), drawing upon the theses of Sahlstrand (1977) and Lidström (1988), articulated the view there are more girls than boys with progressive AIS for the following reason. The maturation of postural mechanisms in the nervous system is complete about the same time in boys and girls. Girls enter their skeletal adolescent growth spurt with immature postural mechanisms – so that if they have a predisposition to develop a scoliosis curve, the spine deforms. In contrast boys enter their adolescent growth spurt with mature postural mechanisms so that they are protected from developing a scoliosis curve. There is evidence that postural sway improves with age in boys and girls until about 10 years of age after which it is similar between the sexes (Hirashawa 1973, Odenrick and Sandstedt 1984) findings which need further evaluation. We term Nachemson’s concept the neuro-ossesous timing of maturation (NOTOM) hypothesis. It may have an evolutionary basis through natural selection towards sexual and skeletal development during adolescence being earlier in girls and later in boys.

The NOTOM hypothesis suggests a treatment to prevent progression of late-juvenile idiopathic scoliosis, early-AIS, and some secondary scolioses based on delaying the onset of puberty used therapeutically in girls with idiopathic precocious puberty (IPP, Grumbach and Styne 1998). The proposal is to administer a gonadorelin analogue which in the pituitary down-regulates the receptors to hypothalamic gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) causing a fall in both luteinizing hormone (LH) and follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), which in turn causes a fall in oestrogens and androgens, and thereby delays or stops menarche and slows bone growth – as in girls and boys with IPP (Galluzzi et al 1998). Expert scrutiny of this therapeutic proposal is currently in progress.

Aims

The aim of this study was to investigate whether including the stages of ulnar physeal closure in Sanders stage 7 aids in a more accurate assessment for brace weaning in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS).

Aims. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of morphological spinal parameters to predict the outcome of bracing in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) and to establish a novel supine correction index (SCI) for guiding bracing treatment. Methods. Patients with AIS to be treated by bracing were prospectively recruited between December 2016 and 2018, and were followed until brace removal. In all, 207 patients with a mean age at recruitment of 12.8 years (SD 1.2) were enrolled. Cobb angles, supine flexibility, and the rate of in-brace correction were measured and used to predict curve progression at the end of follow-up. The SCI was defined as the ratio between correction rate and flexibility. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was carried out to assess the optimal thresholds for flexibility, correction rate, and SCI in predicting a higher risk of progression, defined by a change in Cobb angle of ≥ 5° or the need for surgery. Results. The baseline Cobb angles were similar (p = 0.374) in patients whose curves progressed (32.7° (SD 10.7)) and in those whose curves remained stable (31.4° (SD 6.1)). High supine flexibility (odds ratio (OR) 0.947 (95% CI 0.910 to 0.984); p = 0.006) and correction rate (OR 0.926 (95% CI 0.890 to 0.964); p < 0.001) predicted a lower incidence of progression after adjusting for Cobb angle, Risser sign, curve type, menarche status, distal radius and ulna grading, and brace compliance. ROC curve analysis identified a cut-off of 18.1% for flexibility (sensitivity 0.682, specificity 0.704) and a cut-off of 28.8% for correction rate (sensitivity 0.773, specificity 0.691) in predicting a lower risk of curve progression. A SCI of greater than 1.21 predicted a lower risk of progression (OR 0.4 (95% CI 0.251 to 0.955); sensitivity 0.583, specificity 0.591; p = 0.036). Conclusion. A higher supine flexibility (18.1%) and correction rate (28.8%), and a SCI of greater than 1.21 predicted a lower risk of progression. These novel parameters can be used as a guide to optimize the outcome of bracing. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):495–503

We present a large single surgeon case series evaluation of a new growth guidance technique for the treatment of progressive early onset scoliosis (EOS). A traditional Luque trolley construct uses wires to hold growth guidance rods together. We describe a new technique that uses domino end to side connectors in place of the wires with the aim of providing a stronger construct to better limit curve progression, while allowing longitudinal growth. We did a thorough retrospective review of patient records and radiological imaging. Sequential measurements of Cobb angle and length of rods were recorded, as well as any further surgical procedures and associated complications. This enabled us to quantify the ability of a technique to limit curve progression and simultaneously allow growth of the construct. In total, 28 patients with EOS (20 idiopathic, four syndromic, and four neuromuscular) have been treated with this technique, 25 of whom have a minimum follow-up of 2 years and 13 have a minimum follow-up of 5 years. The average correction of the preoperative Cobb angle was 48.9%. At the 2-year follow up, the average loss of this initial correction was 15 degrees, rising to only 20 degrees at a minimum of 5 years (including four patients with a follow-up of 8 years or more). The growth of the constructs was limited. The average growth at 2 years was 3.7 mm, rising to 19 mm at the 5-year follow-up. Patients who underwent surgery with this technique before the age of 8 years seemed to do better. This group had a revision rate of only 18% at an average time of 7 years after the index procedure, and the average growth was 22 mm. However, the group that had index surgery after the age of 8 years had a 64% revision rate at an average of 3.2 years after surgery and an average growth of only 11.6 mm. Overall, in the cases series, there were four hardware failures (14%) and one deep infection (3.5%), and only ten patients (36%) had one extra surgery after the index procedure. Only two of the 13 patients who are at a follow-up of 5 years or more have had revision. This modified Luque trolley technique has a good capacity for initial curve correction and for limiting further curve progression, with limited longitudinal growth before 2 years and improved growth thereafter. This technique might not be so useful after the age of 8 years because of poor growth and a higher early revision rate. We have also demonstrated a low cost technique with a low hardware failure rate that saves many future surgeries for the patient compared with other techniques used in the treatment of EOS