To develop prediction models using machine-learning (ML) algorithms for 90-day and one-year mortality prediction in femoral neck fracture (FNF) patients aged 50 years or older based on the Hip fracture Evaluation with Alternatives of Total Hip arthroplasty versus Hemiarthroplasty (HEALTH) and Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trials. This study included 2,388 patients from the HEALTH and FAITH trials, with 90-day and one-year mortality proportions of 3.0% (71/2,388) and 6.4% (153/2,388), respectively. The mean age was 75.9 years (SD 10.8) and 65.9% of patients (1,574/2,388) were female. The algorithms included patient and injury characteristics. Six algorithms were developed, internally validated and evaluated across discrimination (c-statistic; discriminative ability between those with risk of mortality and those without), calibration (observed outcome compared to the predicted probability), and the Brier score (composite of discrimination and calibration).Aims
Methods
Using tibial shaft fracture participants from a large, multicentre randomized controlled trial, we investigated if patient and surgical factors were associated with health-related quality of life (HRQoL) at one year post-surgery. The Study to Prospectively Evaluate Reamed Intramedullary Nails in Patients with Tibial Fractures (SPRINT) trial examined adults with an open or closed tibial shaft fracture who were treated with either reamed or unreamed intramedullary nails. HRQoL was assessed at hospital discharge (for pre-injury level) and at 12 months post-fracture using the Short Musculoskeletal Functional Assessment (SMFA) Dysfunction, SMFA Bother, 36-Item Short Form 36 (SF-36) Physical, and SF-36 Mental Component scores. We used multiple linear regression analysis to determine if baseline and surgical factors, as well as post-intervention procedures within one year of fracture, were associated with these HRQoL outcomes. Significance was set at p < 0.01. We hypothesize that, irrespective of the four measures used, prognosis is guided by both modifiable and non-modifiable factors and that patients do not return to their pre-injury level of function, nor HRQoL.Aims
Methods
Internal fixation is currently the standard of care for Garden I and II femoral neck fractures in the elderly. However, there may be a degree of posterior tilt on the preoperative lateral radiograph above which failure is likely, and primary arthroplasty would be preferred. The purpose of this study was to determine the association between posterior tilt and the risk of subsequent arthroplasty following internal fixation of Garden I and II femoral neck fractures in the elderly. This study represents a secondary analysis of data collected in the FAITH trial, an international multicenter randomized controlled trial comparing the sliding hip screw to cannulated screws in the management of femoral neck fractures in patients aged 50 years or older. For each patient who sustained a Garden I or II femoral neck fracture and had an adequate preoperative lateral radiograph, the amount of posterior tilt was categorized as < 2 0 degrees or ≥20 degrees. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to assess the association between posterior tilt and subsequent arthroplasty during the two-year follow-up period, while controlling for potential confounders. Of the 555 patients in the study sample, posterior tilt was classified as ≥20 degrees for 67 (12.1%) and < 2 0 degrees for 488 (87.9%). Overall, 13.2% (73/555) of patients underwent subsequent arthroplasty in the 24-month follow-up period. In the multivariable analysis, patients with posterior tilt ≥20 degrees had a significantly increased risk of subsequent arthroplasty compared to those with posterior tilt < 2 0 degrees (22.4% (15/67) vs 11.9% (58/488), Hazard Ratio (HR) 2.22, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.24–4, p=0.008). The other factor associated with subsequent arthroplasty was age ≥80 (p=0.03). In this study of patients with Garden I and II femoral neck fractures, posterior tilt ≥20 degrees was associated with a significantly increased risk of subsequent arthroplasty. Primary arthroplasty should be considered for Garden I and II femoral neck fractures with posterior tilt ≥20 degrees, especially among older patients.
In a meta-analysis of fourteen trials (N=1901 patients) in patients with displaced hip fractures, we identified significant reductions in the risk of revision surgery with internal fixation compared to arthroplasty. A trend towards increased mortality with arthroplasty was identified. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of arthroplasty (hemi-arthroplasty, bipolar arthroplasty and total hip arthroplasty) in comparison to internal fixation for displaced femoral neck fractures on rates of mortality and revision surgery Arthroplasty for displaced femoral neck fractures, in comparison to internal fixation, significantly reduces the risk of revision surgery at the cost of greater infection rates, blood loss and operative time, and a possible increase in early mortality. Over 220,000 fractures of hip occur per year in North America representing an annual seven billion dollar cost to the health care system. Current evidence suggests internal fixation may reduce mortality risk at the consequence of increased revision rates. A large trial is needed to resolve this issue. We searched computerized databases (MEDLINE, COCHRANE and SCISEARCH) for published clinical studies from 1969–2002 and identified additional studies through hand searches of major orthopaedic journals, bibliographies of major orthopaedic texts and personal files. We found a non-significant trend toward an increase in the relative risk of dying with arthroplasty when compared to internal fixation (relative risk=1.27, 95% confidence interval, 0.84–1.92, p = 0.25; homogeneity p= 0.45). Arthroplasty appeared to increase the risk of dying when compared to pin and plate, but not in comparison to internal fixation using screws (relative risk= 1.75 vs 0.86, respectively, p<
0.05). Fourteen trials provided data on revision surgery (n=1901 patients). The relative risk of revision surgery with arthroplasty was 0.23 (95% confidence interval, 0.13–0.42, p = 0.0003, homogeneity p = <
0.01).
