Aims. A substantial fraction of patients undergoing knee arthroplasty (KA) or hip arthroplasty (HA) do not achieve an improvement as high as the minimal clinically important difference (MCID), i.e. do not achieve a meaningful improvement. Using three patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), our aim was: 1) to assess machine learning (ML), the simple pre-surgery PROM score, and logistic-regression (LR)-derived performance in their prediction of whether patients undergoing HA or KA achieve an improvement as high or higher than a calculated MCID; and 2) to test whether ML is able to outperform LR or pre-surgery PROM scores in predictive performance. Methods. MCIDs were derived using the change difference method in a sample of 1,843 HA and 1,546 KA patients. An artificial neural network, a gradient boosting machine, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, ridge regression, elastic net, random forest, LR, and pre-surgery PROM scores were applied to predict MCID for the following PROMs: EuroQol five-dimension, five-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L), EQ visual analogue scale (EQ-VAS), Hip disability and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score-Physical Function Short-form (HOOS-PS), and Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score-Physical Function Short-form (KOOS-PS). Results. Predictive performance of the best models per outcome ranged from 0.71 for HOOS-PS to 0.84 for EQ-VAS (HA sample). ML statistically significantly outperformed LR and pre-surgery PROM scores in two out of six cases. Conclusion. MCIDs can be predicted with reasonable performance. ML was able to outperform traditional methods, although only in a minority of cases. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(9):512–521

Aims. To review the evidence and reach consensus on recommendations for follow-up after total hip and knee arthroplasty. Methods. A programme of work was conducted, including: a systematic review of the clinical and cost-effectiveness literature; analysis of routine national datasets to identify pre-, peri-, and postoperative predictors of mid-to-late term revision; prospective data analyses from 560 patients to understand how patients present for revision surgery; qualitative interviews with NHS managers and orthopaedic surgeons; and health economic modelling. Finally, a consensus meeting considered all the work and agreed the final recommendations and research areas. Results. The UK poSt Arthroplasty Follow-up rEcommendations (UK SAFE) recommendations apply to post-primary hip and knee arthroplasty follow-up. The ten-year time point is based on a lack of robust evidence beyond ten years. The term 'complex cases' refers to individual patient and surgical factors that may increase the risk for arthroplasty failure. For Orthopaedic Data Evaluation Panel (ODEP) 10A* minimum implants, it is safe to disinvest in routine follow-up from one to ten years post-non-complex hip and knee arthroplasty provided there is rapid access to orthopaedic review. For ODEP 10A* minimum implants in complex cases, or non-ODEP 10A* minimum implants, periodic follow-up post-hip and knee arthroplasty may be required from one to ten years. At ten years post-hip and knee arthroplasty, clinical and radiological evaluation is recommended. After ten years post-hip and knee arthroplasty, frequency of further follow-up should be based on the ten-year assessment; ongoing rapid access to orthopaedic review is still required. Conclusion. Complex cases, implants not meeting the ODEP 10A* criteria, and follow-up after revision surgery are not covered by this recommendation. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(2):72–78

Aims. It is unclear whether mortality outcomes differ for patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA) or total knee arthroplasty (TKA) surgery who are readmitted to the index hospital where their surgery was performed, or to another hospital. Methods. We analyzed linked hospital and death records for residents of New South Wales, Australia, aged ≥ 18 years who had an emergency readmission within 90 days following THA or TKA surgery between 2003 and 2022. Multivariable modelling was used to identify factors associated with non-index readmission and to evaluate associations of readmission destination (non-index vs index) with 90-day and one-year mortality. Results. Of 394,248 joint arthroplasty patients (THA = 149,456; TKA = 244,792), 9.5% (n = 37,431) were readmitted within 90 days, and 53.7% of these were admitted to a non-index hospital. Non-index readmission was more prevalent among patients who underwent surgery in private hospitals (60%). Patients who were readmitted for non-orthopaedic conditions (62.8%), were more likely to return to a non-index hospital compared to those readmitted for orthopaedic complications (39.5%). Factors associated with non-index readmission included older age, higher socioeconomic status, private health insurance, and residence in a rural or remote area. Non-index readmission was significantly associated with 90 day (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.69; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.39 to 2.05) and one-year mortality (aOR 1.31; 95% CI 1.16 to 1.47). Associations between non-index readmission and mortality were similar for patients readmitted with orthopaedic and non-orthopaedic complications (90-day mortality aOR 1.61; 95% CI 0.98 to 2.64, and aOR 1.67; 95% CI 1.35 to 2.06, respectively). Conclusion. Non-index readmission was associated with increased mortality, irrespective of whether the readmission was for orthopaedic complications or other conditions. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(1):60–68

Aims. This study aimed to investigate the estimated change in primary and revision arthroplasty rate in the Netherlands and Denmark for hips, knees, and shoulders during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 (COVID-period). Additional points of focus included the comparison of patient characteristics and hospital type (2019 vs COVID-period), and the estimated loss of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and impact on waiting lists. Methods. All hip, knee, and shoulder arthroplasties (2014 to 2020) from the Dutch Arthroplasty Register, and hip and knee arthroplasties from the Danish Hip and Knee Arthroplasty Registries, were included. The expected number of arthroplasties per month in 2020 was estimated using Poisson regression, taking into account changes in age and sex distribution of the general Dutch/Danish population over time, calculating observed/expected (O/E) ratios. Country-specific proportions of patient characteristics and hospital type were calculated per indication category (osteoarthritis/other elective/acute). Waiting list outcomes including QALYs were estimated by modelling virtual waiting lists including 0%, 5% and 10% extra capacity. Results. During COVID-period, fewer arthroplasties were performed than expected (Netherlands: 20%; Denmark: 5%), with the lowest O/E in April. In the Netherlands, more acute indications were prioritized, resulting in more American Society of Anesthesiologists grade III to IV patients receiving surgery. In both countries, no other patient prioritization was present. Relatively more arthroplasties were performed in private hospitals. There were no clinically relevant differences in revision arthroplasties between pre-COVID and COVID-period. Estimated total health loss depending on extra capacity ranged from: 19,800 to 29,400 QALYs (Netherlands): 1,700 to 2,400 QALYs (Denmark). With no extra capacity it will take > 30 years to deplete the waiting lists. Conclusion. The COVID-19 pandemic had an enormous negative effect on arthroplasty rates, but more in the Netherlands than Denmark. In the Netherlands, hip and shoulder patients with acute indications were prioritized. Private hospitals filled in part of the capacity gap. QALY loss due to postponed arthroplasty surgeries is considerable. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(12):977–990

Aims. The present study aimed to investigate whether patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) undergoing joint arthroplasty have a higher incidence of adverse outcomes than those without IBD. Methods. A comprehensive literature search was conducted to identify eligible studies reporting postoperative outcomes in IBD patients undergoing joint arthroplasty. The primary outcomes included postoperative complications, while the secondary outcomes included unplanned readmission, length of stay (LOS), joint reoperation/implant revision, and cost of care. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a random-effects model when heterogeneity was substantial. Results. Eight retrospective studies involving 29,738 patients with IBD were included. Compared with non-IBD controls, patients with IBD were significantly more likely to have overall complications (OR 2.11 (95% CI 1.67 to 2.66), p < 0.001), medical complications (OR 2.15 (95% CI 1.73 to 2.68), p < 0.001), surgical complications (OR 1.43 (95% CI 1.21 to 1.70), p < 0.001), and 90-day readmissions (OR 1.42 (95% CI 1.23 to 1.65), p < 0.001). The presence of IBD was positively associated with the development of venous thromboembolism (OR 1.60 (95% CI 1.30 to 1.97), p < 0.001) and postoperative infection (OR 1.95 (95% CI 1.51 to 2.51), p < 0.001). In addition, patients with IBD tended to experience longer LOS and higher costs of care. Conclusion. The findings suggest that IBD is associated with an increased risk of postoperative complications and readmission after joint arthroplasty, resulting in longer hospital stay and greater financial burden. Surgeons should inform their patients of the possibility of adverse outcomes prior to surgery and make appropriate risk adjustments to minimize potential complications. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(6):362–371

Aims. While internet search engines have been the primary information source for patients’ questions, artificial intelligence large language models like ChatGPT are trending towards becoming the new primary source. The purpose of this study was to determine if ChatGPT can answer patient questions about total hip (THA) and knee arthroplasty (TKA) with consistent accuracy, comprehensiveness, and easy readability. Methods. We posed the 20 most Google-searched questions about THA and TKA, plus ten additional postoperative questions, to ChatGPT. Each question was asked twice to evaluate for consistency in quality. Following each response, we responded with, “Please explain so it is easier to understand,” to evaluate ChatGPT’s ability to reduce response reading grade level, measured as Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level (FKGL). Five resident physicians rated the 120 responses on 1 to 5 accuracy and comprehensiveness scales. Additionally, they answered a “yes” or “no” question regarding acceptability. Mean scores were calculated for each question, and responses were deemed acceptable if ≥ four raters answered “yes.”. Results. The mean accuracy and comprehensiveness scores were 4.26 (95% confidence interval (CI) 4.19 to 4.33) and 3.79 (95% CI 3.69 to 3.89), respectively. Out of all the responses, 59.2% (71/120; 95% CI 50.0% to 67.7%) were acceptable. ChatGPT was consistent when asked the same question twice, giving no significant difference in accuracy (t = 0.821; p = 0.415), comprehensiveness (t = 1.387; p = 0.171), acceptability (χ. 2. = 1.832; p = 0.176), and FKGL (t = 0.264; p = 0.793). There was a significantly lower FKGL (t = 2.204; p = 0.029) for easier responses (11.14; 95% CI 10.57 to 11.71) than original responses (12.15; 95% CI 11.45 to 12.85). Conclusion. ChatGPT answered THA and TKA patient questions with accuracy comparable to previous reports of websites, with adequate comprehensiveness, but with limited acceptability as the sole information source. ChatGPT has potential for answering patient questions about THA and TKA, but needs improvement. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(2):139–146

Aims. Waiting times for arthroplasty surgery in Northern Ireland are among the longest in the NHS, which have been further lengthened by the onset of the COVID-19 global pandemic in March 2020. The Department of Health in Northern Ireland has announced a new Elective Care Framework (ECF), with the framework proposing that by March 2026 no patient will wait more than 52 weeks for inpatient/day case treatment. We aimed to assess the feasibility of achieving this with reference to total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Methods. Mathematical modelling was undertaken to calculate when the ECF targets will be achieved for THA and TKA, as well as the time when waiting lists for THA and TKA will be cleared. The number of patients currently on the waiting list and percentage operating capacity relative to pre-COVID-19 capacity was used to determine future projections. Results. As of May 2021, there were 3,757 patients awaiting primary THA and 4,469 patients awaiting primary TKA in Northern Ireland. Prior to April 2020, there were a mean 2,346 (2,085 to 2,610) patients per annum boarded for primary THA, a mean 2,514 (2,494 to 2,514) patients per annum boarded for primary TKA, and there were a mean 1,554 primary THAs and 1,518 primary TKAs performed per annum. The ECF targets for THA will only be achieved in 2030 if operating capacity is 200% of pre COVID-19 pandemic capacity and in 2042 if capacity is 170%. For TKA, the targets will be met in 2034 if capacity is 200% of pre-COVID-19 pandemic capacity. Conclusion. This modelling demonstrates that, in the absence of major funding and reorganization of elective orthopaedic care, the targets set out in the ECF will not be achieved with regard to THA and TKA. Waiting times for THA and TKA surgery in Northern Ireland are likely to remain greater than 52 weeks for most of this decade. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(4):302–306

Aims. Antibiotic prophylaxis involving timely administration of appropriately dosed antibiotic is considered effective to reduce the risk of surgical site infection (SSI) after total hip and total knee arthroplasty (THA/TKA). Cephalosporins provide effective prophylaxis, although evidence regarding the optimal timing and dosage of prophylactic antibiotics is inconclusive. The aim of this study is to examine the association between cephalosporin prophylaxis dose, timing, and duration, and the risk of SSI after THA/TKA. Methods. A prospective multicentre cohort study was undertaken in consenting adults with osteoarthritis undergoing elective primary TKA/THA at one of 19 high-volume Australian public/private hospitals. Data were collected prior to and for one-year post surgery. Logistic regression was undertaken to explore associations between dose, timing, and duration of cephalosporin prophylaxis and SSI. Data were analyzed for 1,838 participants. There were 264 SSI comprising 63 deep SSI (defined as requiring intravenous antibiotics, readmission, or reoperation) and 161 superficial SSI (defined as requiring oral antibiotics) experienced by 249 (13.6%) participants within 365 days of surgery. Results. In adjusted modelling, factors associated with a significant reduction in any SSI and deep SSI included: correct weight-adjusted dose (any SSI; adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.68 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.47 to 0.99); p = 0.045); commencing preoperative cephalosporin within 60 minutes (any SSI, aOR 0.56 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.89); p = 0.012; deep SSI, aOR 0.29 (95% CI 0.15 to 0.59); p < 0.001) or 60 minutes or longer prior to skin incision (aOR 0.35 (95% CI 0.17 to 0.70); p = 0.004; deep SSI, AOR 0.27 (95% CI 0.09 to 0.83); p = 0.022), compared to at or after skin incision. Other factors significantly associated with an increased risk of any SSI, but not deep SSI alone, were receiving a non-cephalosporin antibiotic preoperatively (aOR 1.35 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.81); p = 0.044) and changing cephalosporin dose (aOR 1.76 (95% CI 1.22 to 2.57); p = 0.002). There was no difference in risk of any or deep SSI between the duration of prophylaxis less than or in excess of 24 hours. Conclusion. Ensuring adequate, weight-adjusted dosing and early, preoperative delivery of prophylactic antibiotics may reduce the risk of SSI in THA/TKA, whereas the duration of prophylaxis beyond 24 hours is unnecessary. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(3):252–260

Aims. The aim of this study was to develop a single-layer hybrid organic-inorganic sol-gel coating that is capable of a controlled antibiotic release for cementless hydroxyapatite (HA)-coated titanium orthopaedic prostheses. Methods. Coatings containing gentamicin at a concentration of 1.25% weight/volume (wt/vol), similar to that found in commercially available antibiotic-loaded bone cement, were prepared and tested in the laboratory for: kinetics of antibiotic release; activity against planktonic and biofilm bacterial cultures; biocompatibility with cultured mammalian cells; and physical bonding to the material (n = 3 in all tests). The sol-gel coatings and controls were then tested in vivo in a small animal healing model (four materials tested; n = 6 per material), and applied to the surface of commercially pure HA-coated titanium rods. Results. The coating released gentamicin at > 10 × minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) for sensitive staphylococcal strains within one hour thereby potentially giving effective prophylaxis for arthroplasty surgery, and showed > 99% elution of the antibiotic within the coating after 48 hours. There was total eradication of both planktonic bacteria and established bacterial biofilms of a panel of clinically relevant staphylococci. Mesenchymal stem cells adhered to the coated surfaces and differentiated towards osteoblasts, depositing calcium and expressing the bone marker protein, osteopontin. In the in vivo small animal bone healing model, the antibiotic sol-gel coated titanium (Ti)/HA rod led to osseointegration equivalent to that of the conventional HA-coated surface. Conclusion. In this study we report a new sol-gel technology that can release gentamicin from a bioceramic-coated cementless arthroplasty material. In vitro, local gentamicin levels are in excess of what can be achieved by antibiotic-loaded bone cement. In vivo, bone healing in an animal model is not impaired. This, thus, represents a biomaterial modification that may have the potential to protect at-risk patients from implant-related deep infection. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(3):522–529

Aims. The COVID-19 pandemic led to a national suspension of “non-urgent” elective hip and knee arthroplasty. The study aims to measure the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) volume in Scotland. Secondary objectives are to measure the success of restarting elective services and model the time required to bridge the gap left by the first period of suspension. Methods. A retrospective observational study using the Scottish Arthroplasty Project dataset. All patients undergoing elective THAs and TKAs during the period 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2020 were included. A negative binomial regression model using historical case-volume and mid-year population estimates was built to project the future case-volume of THA and TKA in Scotland. The median monthly case volume was calculated for the period 2008 to 2019 (baseline) and compared to the actual monthly case volume for 2020. The time taken to eliminate the deficit was calculated based upon the projected monthly workload and with a potential workload between 100% to 120% of baseline. Results. Compared to the period 2008 to 2019, primary TKA and THA volume fell by 61.1% and 53.6%, respectively. Since restarting elective services, Scottish hospitals have achieved approximately 40% to 50% of baseline monthly activity. With no changes in current workload, by 2021 there would be a reduction of 9,180 and 10,170 for THA and TKA, respectively. Conversely, working at 120% baseline monthly output, it would take over four years to eliminate the deficit for both TKA and THA. Conclusion. This national study demonstrates the significant impact that COVID-19 pandemic has had on overall THA and TKA volume. In the six months after resuming elective services, Scottish hospitals averaged less than 50% normal monthly output. Loss of operating capacity will increase treatment delays and likely worsen overall morbidity. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2021;2(3):203–210

Aims. To develop and validate patient-centred algorithms that estimate individual risk of death over the first year after elective joint arthroplasty surgery for osteoarthritis. Methods. A total of 763,213 hip and knee joint arthroplasty episodes recorded in the National Joint Registry for England and Wales (NJR) and 105,407 episodes from the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register were used to model individual mortality risk over the first year after surgery using flexible parametric survival regression. Results. The one-year mortality rates in the NJR were 10.8 and 8.9 per 1,000 patient-years after hip and knee arthroplasty, respectively. The Norwegian mortality rates were 9.1 and 6.0 per 1,000 patient-years, respectively. The strongest predictors of death in the final models were age, sex, body mass index, and American Society of Anesthesiologists grade. Exposure variables related to the intervention, with the exception of knee arthroplasty type, did not add discrimination over patient factors alone. Discrimination was good in both cohorts, with c-indices above 0.76 for the hip and above 0.70 for the knee. Time-dependent Brier scores indicated appropriate estimation of the mortality rate (≤ 0.01, all models). Conclusion. Simple demographic and clinical information may be used to calculate an individualized estimation for one-year mortality risk after hip or knee arthroplasty (. https://jointcalc.shef.ac.uk. ). These models may be used to provide patients with an estimate of the risk of mortality after joint arthroplasty. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2020;9(11):808–820

Aims. To calculate how the likelihood of obtaining measurable benefit from hip or knee arthroplasty varies with preoperative patient-reported scores. Methods. Existing UK data from 222,933 knee and 209,760 hip arthroplasty patients were used to model an individual’s probability of gaining meaningful improvement after surgery based on their preoperative Oxford Knee or Hip Score (OKS/OHS). A clinically meaningful improvement after arthroplasty was defined as ≥ 8 point improvement in OHS, and ≥ 7 in OKS. Results. The upper preoperative score threshold, above which patients are unlikely to achieve any meaningful improvement from surgery, is 41 for knees and 40 for hips. At lower scores, the probability of improvement increased towards a maximum of 88% (knee) and 95% for (hips). Conclusion. By our definition of meaningful improvement, patients with preoperative scores above 41 (OKS) and 40 (OHS) should not be routinely referred to secondary care for possible arthroplasty. Using lower thresholds would incrementally increase the probability of meaningful benefit for those referred but will exclude some patients with potential to benefit. The findings are useful to support the complex shared decision-making process in primary care for referral to secondary care; and in secondary care for experienced clinicians counselling patients considering knee or hip arthroplasty, but should not be used in isolation. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(7):941–949

Aims. To assess how the cost-effectiveness of total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) varies with age, sex, and preoperative Oxford Hip or Knee Score (OHS/OKS); and to identify the patient groups for whom THA/TKA is cost-effective. Methods. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model from a United Kingdom NHS perspective, informed by published analyses of patient-level data. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of THA and TKA in adults with hip or knee osteoarthritis compared with having no arthroplasty surgery during the ten-year time horizon. Results. THA and TKA cost < £7,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained at all preoperative scores below the absolute referral thresholds calculated previously (40 for OHS and 41 for OKS). Furthermore, THA cost < £20,000/QALY for patients with OHS of ≤ 45, while TKA was cost-effective for patients with OKS of ≤ 43, since the small improvements in quality of life outweighed the cost of surgery and any subsequent revisions. Probabilistic and one-way sensitivity analyses demonstrated that there is little uncertainty around the conclusions. Conclusion. If society is willing to pay £20,000 per QALY gained, THA and TKA are cost-effective for nearly all patients who currently undergo surgery, including all patients at and above our calculated absolute referral thresholds. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(7):950–958

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The aims of this study were to: 1) report on a cohort of skeletally mature patients with native hip and knee septic arthritis over a 14-year period; 2) to determine the rate of joint failure in patients who had experienced an episode of hip or knee septic arthritis; and 3) to assess the outcome following septic arthritis relative to the infecting organism, whether those patients infected by Staphylococcus aureus would be more likely to have adverse outcomes than those infected by other organisms.

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The aims were to assess whether preoperative joint-specific function (JSF) and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) were associated with level of clinical frailty in patients waiting for a primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) or knee arthroplasty (KA).

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The aim of this meta-analysis was to determine the pooled incidence of postoperative urinary retention (POUR) following total hip and knee arthroplasty (total joint replacement (TJR)) and to evaluate the risk factors and complications associated with POUR.

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The primary aim was to assess whether preoperative health-related quality of life (HRQoL) was associated with postoperative mortality following total hip arthroplasty (THA) and knee arthroplasty (KA). Secondary aims were to assess whether patient demographics/comorbidities and/or joint-specific function were associated with postoperative mortality.

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This study aims to evaluate the impact of metabolic syndrome in the setting of obesity on in-hospital outcomes and resource use after total joint replacement (TJR).

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We aim to evaluate the usefulness of postoperative blood tests by investigating the incidence of abnormal results following total joint replacement (TJR), as well as identifying preoperative risk factors for abnormal blood test results postoperatively, especially pertaining to anaemia and acute kidney injury (AKI).

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The outcomes of patients with unexpected positive cultures (UPCs) during revision total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) remain unknown. The objectives of this study were to establish the prevalence and infection-free implant survival in UPCs during presumed aseptic single-stage revision THA and TKA at mid-term follow-up.