Objectives. The goal of this study is to investigate the relation between indicators of osteoporosis (i.e.,
Objectives. This study evaluated the mechanical performance, under low-load cyclic loading, of two different knotless suture anchor designs: sutures completely internal to the anchor body (SpeedScrew) and sutures external to the anchor body and adjacent to
Aims. The aim of this study is to report the implant survival and factors associated with revision of total elbow arthroplasty (TEA) using data from the Dutch national registry. Methods. All TEAs recorded in the Dutch national registry between 2014 and 2020 were included. The Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival analysis, and a logistic regression model was used to assess the factors associated with revision. Results. A total of 514 TEAs were included, of which 35 were revised. The five-year implant survival was 91%. Male sex, a higher BMI, and previous surgery to the same elbow showed a statistically significant association with revision (p < 0.036). Of the 35 revised implants, ten (29%) underwent a second revision. Conclusion. This study reports a five-year implant survival of TEA of 91%. Patient factors associated with revision are defined and can be used to optimize informed consent and shared decision-making. There was a high rate of secondary revisions. Cite this article:
Aims. Glenoid bone loss is a significant problem in the management of shoulder instability. The threshold at which the bone loss is considered “critical” requiring bony reconstruction has steadily dropped and is now approximately 15%. This necessitates accurate measurement in order that the correct operation is performed. CT scanning is the most commonly used modality and there are a number of techniques described to measure the bone loss however few have been validated. The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of the most commonly used techniques for measuring glenoid bone loss on CT. Methods. Anatomically accurate models with known glenoid diameter and degree of bone loss were used to determine the mathematical and statistical accuracy of six of the most commonly described techniques (relative diameter, linear ipsilateral circle of best fit (COBF), linear contralateral COBF, Pico, Sugaya, and circle line methods). The models were prepared at 13.8%, 17.6%, and 22.9% bone loss. Sequential CT scans were taken and randomized. Blinded reviewers made repeated measurements using the different techniques with a threshold for theoretical bone grafting set at 15%. Results. At 13.8%, only the Pico technique measured under the threshold. At 17.6% and 22.9% bone loss all techniques measured above the threshold. The Pico technique was 97.1% accurate, but had a high false-negative rate and poor sensitivity underestimating the need for grafting. The Sugaya technique had 100% specificity but 25% of the measurements were incorrectly above the threshold. A contralateral COBF underestimates the area by 16% and the diameter by 5 to 7%. Conclusion. No one method stands out as being truly accurate and clinicians need to be aware of the limitations of their chosen technique. They are not interchangeable, and caution must be used when reading the literature as comparisons are not reliable. Cite this article:
Aims. There are concerns regarding complications and longevity of total elbow arthroplasty (TEA) in young patients, and the few previous publications are mainly limited to reports on linked elbow devices. We investigated the clinical outcome of unlinked TEA for patients aged less than 50 years with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods. We retrospectively reviewed the records of 26 elbows of 21 patients with RA who were aged less than 50 years who underwent primary TEA with an unlinked elbow prosthesis. The mean patient age was 46 years (35 to 49), and the mean follow-up period was 13.6 years (6 to 27). Outcome measures included pain, range of motion, Mayo Elbow Performance Score (MEPS), radiological evaluation for radiolucent line and loosening, complications, and revision surgery with or without implant removal. Results. The mean MEPS significantly improved from 47 (15 to 70) points preoperatively to 95 (70 to 100) points at final follow-up (p < 0.001). Complications were noted in six elbows (23%) in six patients, and of these, four with an ulnar neuropathy and one elbow with postoperative traumatic fracture required additional surgeries. There was no revision with implant removal, and there was no radiological evidence of loosening around the components. With any revision surgery as the endpoint, the survival rates up to 25 years were 78.1% (95% confidence interval 52.8 to 90.6) as determined by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Conclusion. The clinical outcome of primary unlinked TEA for young patients with RA was satisfactory and comparable with that for elderly patients. A favourable survival rate without implant removal might support the use of unlinked devices for young patients with this disease entity, with a caution of a relatively high complication rate regarding ulnar neuropathy. Level of Evidence: Therapeutic Level IV. Cite this article:
Aims. The primary aim of this study was to assess the feasibility of recruiting and retaining patients to a patient-blinded randomized controlled trial comparing corticosteroid injection (CSI) to autologous protein solution (APS) injection for the treatment of subacromial shoulder pain in a community care setting. The study focused on recruitment rates and retention of participants throughout, and collected data on the interventions’ safety and efficacy. Methods. Participants were recruited from two community musculoskeletal treatment centres in the UK. Patients were eligible if aged 18 years or older, and had a clinical diagnosis of subacromial impingement syndrome which the treating clinician thought was suitable for treatment with a subacromial injection. Consenting patients were randomly allocated 1:1 to a patient-blinded subacromial injection of CSI (standard care) or APS. The primary outcome measures of this study relate to rates of recruitment, retention, and compliance with intervention and follow-up to determine feasibility. Secondary outcome measures relate to the safety and efficacy of the interventions. Results. A total of 53 patients were deemed eligible, and 50 patients (94%) recruited between April 2022 and October 2022. Overall, 49 patients (98%) complied with treatment. Outcome data were collected in 100% of participants at three months and 94% at six months. There were no significant adverse events. Both groups demonstrated improvement in patient-reported outcome measures over the six-month period. Conclusion. Our study shows that it is feasible to recruit to a patient-blinded randomized controlled trial comparing APS and CSI for subacromial pain in terms of clinical outcomes and health-resource use in the UK. Safety and efficacy data are presented. Cite this article:
Aims. The liner design is a key determinant of the constraint of a reverse total shoulder arthroplasty (rTSA). The aim of this study was to compare the degree of constraint of rTSA liners between different implant systems. Methods. An implant company’s independent 3D shoulder arthroplasty planning software (mediCAD 3D shoulder v. 7.0, module v. 2.1.84.173.43) was used to determine the jump height of standard and constrained liners of different sizes (radius of curvature) of all available companies. The obtained parameters were used to calculate the stability ratio (degree of constraint) and angle of coverage (degree of glenosphere coverage by liner) of the different systems. Measurements were independently performed by two raters, and intraclass correlation coefficients were calculated to perform a reliability analysis. Additionally, measurements were compared with parameters provided by the companies themselves, when available, to ensure validity of the software-derived measurements. Results. There were variations in jump height between rTSA systems at a given size, resulting in large differences in stability ratio between systems. Standard liners exhibited a stability ratio range from 126% to 214% (mean 158% (SD 23%)) and constrained liners a range from 151% to 479% (mean 245% (SD 76%)). The angle of coverage showed a range from 103° to 130° (mean 115° (SD 7°)) for standard and a range from 113° to 156° (mean 133° (SD 11°)) for constrained liners. Four arthroplasty systems kept the stability ratio of standard liners constant (within 5%) across different sizes, while one system showed slight inconsistencies (within 10%), and ten arthroplasty systems showed large inconsistencies (range 11% to 28%). The stability ratio of constrained liners was consistent across different sizes in two arthroplasty systems and inconsistent in seven systems (range 18% to 106%). Conclusion. Large differences in jump height and resulting degree of constraint of rTSA liners were observed between different implant systems, and in many cases even within the same implant systems. While the immediate clinical effect remains unclear, in theory the degree of constraint of the liner plays an important role for the dislocation and notching risk of a rTSA system. Cite this article:
Aims. The management of mid-shaft clavicle fractures (MSCFs) has evolved over the last three decades. Controversy exists over which specific fracture patterns to treat and when. This review aims to synthesize the literature in order to formulate an appropriate management algorithm for these injuries in both adolescents and adults. Methods. This is a systematic review of clinical studies comparing the outcomes of operative and nonoperative treatments for MSCFs in the past 15 years. The literature was searched using, PubMed, Google scholar, OVID Medline, and Embase. All databases were searched with identical search terms: mid-shaft clavicle fractures (± fixation) (± nonoperative). Results. Using the search criteria identified, 247 studies were deemed eligible. Following initial screening, 220 studies were excluded on the basis that they were duplicates and/or irrelevant to the research question being posed. A total of 27 full-text articles remained and were included in the final review. The majority of the meta-analyses draw the same conclusions, which are that operatively treated fractures have lower nonunion and malunion rates but that, in those fractures which unite (either operative or nonoperative), the functional outcomes are the same at six months. Conclusion. With regard to the adolescent population, the existing body of evidence is insufficient to support the use of routine operative management. Regarding adult fractures, the key to identifying patients who benefit from operative management lies in the identification of risk factors for nonunion. We present an algorithm that can be used to guide both the patient and the surgeon in a joint decision-making process, in order to optimize patient satisfaction and outcomes. Cite this article:
Aims. There remains a lack of consensus regarding the management of chronic anterior sternoclavicular joint (SCJ) instability. This study aimed to assess whether a standardized treatment algorithm (incorporating physiotherapy and surgery and based on the presence of trauma) could successfully guide management and reduce the number needing surgery. Methods. Patients with chronic anterior SCJ instability managed between April 2007 and April 2019 with a standardized treatment algorithm were divided into non-traumatic (offered physiotherapy) and traumatic (offered surgery) groups and evaluated at discharge. Subsequently, midterm outcomes were assessed via a postal questionnaire with a subjective SCJ stability score, Oxford Shoulder Instability Score (OSIS, adapted for the SCJ), and pain visual analogue scale (VAS), with analysis on an intention-to-treat basis. Results. A total of 47 patients (50 SCJs, three bilateral) responded for 75% return rate. Of these, 31 SCJs were treated with physiotherapy and 19 with surgery. Overall, 96% (48/50) achieved a stable SCJ, with 60% (30/50) achieving unrestricted function. In terms of outcomes, 82% (41/50) recorded good-to-excellent OSIS scores (84% (26/31) physiotherapy, 79% (15/19) surgery), and 76% (38/50) reported low pain VAS scores at final follow-up. Complications of the total surgical cohort included a 19% (5/27) revision rate, 11% (3/27) frozen shoulder, and 4% (1/27) scar sensitivity. Conclusion. This is the largest midterm series reporting chronic anterior SCJ instability outcomes when managed according to a standardized treatment algorithm that emphasizes the importance of appropriate patient selection for either physiotherapy or surgery, based on a history of trauma. All but two patients achieved a stable SCJ, with stability maintained at a median of 70 months (11 to 116) for the physiotherapy group and 87 months (6 to 144) for the surgery group. Cite this article:
Aims. The aim of this study is to evaluate the change in incidence rate of shoulder arthroplasty, indications, and surgeon volume trends associated with these procedures between January 2003 and April 2021 in the province of Nova Scotia, Canada. Methods. A total of 1,545 patients between 2005 and 2021 were analyzed. Patients operated on between 2003 and 2004 were excluded due to a lack of electronic records. Overall, 84.1% of the surgeries (n = 1,299) were performed by two fellowship-trained upper limb surgeons, with the remainder performed by one of the 14 orthopaedic surgeons working in the province. Results. Total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA) was the most frequent procedure (32.17%; n = 497), followed by stemmed hemiarthroplasty (SHA) (27.7%; n = 428). The most frequent indication for primary shoulder arthroplasty was degenerative osteoarthritis (58.1%; n = 882), followed by acute proximal humerus fracture in 15.11% (n = 245), and rotator cuff arthropathy in 14.18% (n = 220). The overall rate of revision was 7.7% (2.8% to 11.2%). The number of TSAs and reverse shoulder arthroplasties (RSAs) has been increasing since 2016. The amount of revision cases is proportional to the number of operations performed in the same year throughout the study period. Conclusion. The incidence of shoulder arthroplasty in the Maritime Provinces has increased over the last 16 years. Revision rates are similar the those found in other large database registries. Reverse shoulder arthroplasty prevalence has increased since 2016. Cite this article:
Aims. Rotator cuff disease (RCD) can considerably decrease quality of life. Here, we investigated whether health-related quality of life (HRQoL) influences the need for surgery in patients with RCD. Methods. We performed an analysis of 417 patients with symptomatic RCD who were recruited from two hospitals between June 2008 and December 2014 to be randomized to receive non-surgical or surgical treatment. After a three-month rehabilitation period, 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey questionnaire (SF-36), shoulder pain (visual analogue scale (VAS)), and shoulder function (Constant-Murley score) data were available from 191 still-symptomatic patients who were eligible for surgery. A control group was formed from 87 excluded patients who were no longer eligible for surgery due to relief of symptoms. Results. Mean pain on the VAS was 51.3 (SD 20.1) in the patients eligible for surgery and 41.7 (SD 21.2) in the control group. The following domains of the SF-36 were associated with being eligible for surgery in univariate analyses: bodily pain, general health, vitality, social functioning, and emotional wellbeing. In multivariate analysis, only bodily pain was associated with pursuing surgical treatment. The RCD population’s values for physical role, bodily pain, and physical functioning were poorer compared to the values of the general population. Conclusion. Lower HRQoL, as indicated by the lower bodily pain score on the SF-36, was associated with the decision to undergo surgical treatment in patients with RCD. Therefore, HRQoL should be considered when determining treatment options for RCD. Cite this article:
Aims. Frozen shoulder is a common, painful condition that results in impairment of function. Corticosteroid injections are commonly used for frozen shoulder and can be given as glenohumeral joint (GHJ) injection or suprascapular nerve block (SSNB). Both injection types have been shown to significantly improve shoulder pain and range of motion. It is not currently known which is superior in terms of relieving patients’ symptoms. This is the protocol for a randomized clinical trial to investigate the clinical effectiveness of corticosteroid injection given as either a GHJ injection or SSNB. Methods. The Therapeutic Injections For Frozen Shoulder (TIFFS) study is a single centre, parallel, two-arm, randomized clinical trial. Participants will be allocated on a 1:1 basis to either a GHJ corticosteroid injection or SSNB. Participants in both trial arms will then receive physiotherapy as normal for frozen shoulder. The primary analysis will compare the Oxford Shoulder Score (OSS) at three months after injection. Secondary outcomes include OSS at six and 12 months, range of shoulder movement at three months, and Numeric Pain Rating Scale, abbreviated Disabilities of Arm, Shoulder and Hand score, and EuroQol five-level five-dimension health index at three months, six months, and one year after injection. A minimum of 40 patients will be recruited to obtain 80% power to detect a minimally important difference of ten points on the OSS between the groups at three months after injection. The study is registered under ClinicalTrials.gov with the identifier NCT04965376. Conclusion. The results of this trial will demonstrate if there is a difference in shoulder pain and function after GHJ injection or SSNB in patients with frozen shoulder. This will help provide effective treatment to patients with frozen shoulder. Cite this article:
Aims. Shoulder arthroplasty is effective in the management of end-stage glenohumeral joint arthritis. However, it is major surgery and patients must balance multiple factors when considering the procedure. An understanding of patients’ decision-making processes may facilitate greater support of those considering shoulder arthroplasty and inform the outcomes of future research. Methods. Participants were recruited from waiting lists of three consultant upper limb surgeons across two NHS hospitals. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 12 participants who were awaiting elective shoulder arthroplasty. Transcribed interviews were analyzed using a grounded theory approach. Systematic coding was performed; initial codes were categorized and further developed into summary narratives through a process of discussion and refinement. Data collection and analyses continued until thematic saturation was reached. Results. Two overall categories emerged: the motivations to consider surgery, and the information participants used to inform their decision-making. Motivations were, broadly, the relief of pain and the opportunity to get on with life and regain independence. When participants’ symptoms and restrictions prevented them enjoying life to a sufficient extent, this provided the motivation to proceed with surgery. Younger participants tended to focus on maintaining employment and recreational activities, and older patients were eager to make the most of their remaining lifetime. Participants gathered information from a range of sources and were keen to optimize their recovery where possible. An important factor for participants was whether they trusted their surgeon and were prepared to delegate responsibility for elements of their care. Conclusion. Relief of pain and the opportunity to get on with life were the primary reasons to undergo shoulder arthroplasty. Participants highlighted the importance of the patient-surgeon relationship and the need for accurate information in an accessible format which is relevant to people of different ages and functional demands. Cite this article:
Aims. The conventionally described mechanism of distal biceps tendon rupture (DBTR) is of a ‘considerable extension force suddenly applied to a resisting, actively flexed forearm’. This has been commonly paraphrased as an ‘eccentric contracture to a flexed elbow’. Both definitions have been frequently used in the literature with little objective analysis or citation. The aim of the present study was to use video footage of real time distal biceps ruptures to revisit and objectively define the mechanism of injury. Methods. An online search identified 61 videos reporting a DBTR. Videos were independently reviewed by three surgeons to assess forearm rotation, elbow flexion, shoulder position, and type of muscle contraction being exerted at the time of rupture. Prospective data on mechanism of injury and arm position was also collected concurrently for 22 consecutive patients diagnosed with an acute DBTR in order to corroborate the video analysis. Results. Four videos were excluded, leaving 57 for final analysis. Mechanisms of injury included deadlift, bicep curls, calisthenics, arm wrestling, heavy lifting, and boxing. In all, 98% of ruptures occurred with the arm in supination and 89% occurred at 0° to 10° of elbow flexion. Regarding muscle activity, 88% occurred during isometric contraction, 7% during eccentric contraction, and 5% during concentric contraction. Interobserver correlation scores were calculated as 0.66 to 0.89 using the free-marginal Fleiss Kappa tool. The prospectively collected patient data was consistent with the video analysis, with 82% of injuries occurring in supination and 95% in relative elbow extension. Conclusion. Contrary to the classically described injury mechanism, in this study the usual arm position during DBTR was forearm supination and elbow extension, and the muscle contraction was typically isometric. This was demonstrated for both video analysis and ‘real’ patients across a range of activities leading to rupture. Cite this article:
Aims. The Oxford Shoulder Score (OSS) is a 12-item measure commonly used for the assessment of shoulder surgeries. This study explores whether computerized adaptive testing (CAT) provides a shortened, individually tailored questionnaire while maintaining test accuracy. Methods. A total of 16,238 preoperative OSS were available in the National Joint Registry (NJR) for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man, and the States of Guernsey dataset (April 2012 to April 2022). Prior to CAT, the foundational item response theory (IRT) assumptions of unidimensionality, monotonicity, and local independence were established. CAT compared sequential item selection with stopping criteria set at standard error (SE) < 0.32 and SE < 0.45 (equivalent to reliability coefficients of 0.90 and 0.80) to full-length patient-reported outcome measure (PROM) precision. Results. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) for unidimensionality exhibited satisfactory fit with root mean square standardized residual (RSMSR) of 0.06 (cut-off ≤ 0.08) but not with comparative fit index (CFI) of 0.85 or Tucker-Lewis index (TLI) of 0.82 (cut-off > 0.90). Monotonicity, measured by H value, yielded 0.482, signifying good monotonic trends. Local independence was generally met, with Yen’s Q3 statistic > 0.2 for most items. The median item count for completing the CAT simulation with a SE of 0.32 was 3 (IQR 3 to 12), while for a SE of 0.45 it was 2 (IQR 2 to 6). This constituted only 25% and 16%, respectively, when compared to the 12-item full-length questionnaire. Conclusion. Calibrating IRT for the OSS has resulted in the development of an efficient and shortened CAT while maintaining accuracy and reliability. Through the reduction of redundant items and implementation of a standardized measurement scale, our study highlights a promising approach to alleviate time burden and potentially enhance compliance with these widely used outcome measures. Cite this article:
Aims. To propose a new method for evaluating paediatric radial neck fractures and improve the accuracy of fracture angulation measurement, particularly in younger children, and thereby facilitate planning treatment in this population. Methods. Clinical data of 117 children with radial neck fractures in our hospital from August 2014 to March 2023 were collected. A total of 50 children (26 males, 24 females, mean age 7.6 years (2 to 13)) met the inclusion criteria and were analyzed. Cases were excluded for the following reasons: Judet grade I and Judet grade IVb (> 85° angulation) classification; poor radiograph image quality; incomplete clinical information; sagittal plane angulation; severe displacement of the ulna fracture; and Monteggia fractures. For each patient, standard elbow anteroposterior (AP) view radiographs and corresponding CT images were acquired. On radiographs, Angle P (complementary to the angle between the long axis of the radial head and the line perpendicular to the physis), Angle S (complementary to the angle between the long axis of the radial head and the midline through the proximal radial shaft), and Angle U (between the long axis of the radial head and the straight line from the distal tip of the capitellum to the coronoid process) were identified as candidates approximating the true coronal plane angulation of radial neck fractures. On the coronal plane of the CT scan, the angulation of radial neck fractures (CTa) was measured and served as the reference standard for measurement. Inter- and intraobserver reliabilities were assessed by Kappa statistics and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Results. Angle U showed the strongest correlation with CTa (p < 0.001). In the analysis of inter- and intraobserver reliability, Kappa values were significantly higher for Angles S and U compared with Angle P. ICC values were excellent among the three groups. Conclusion. Angle U on AP view was the best substitute for CTa when evaluating radial neck fractures in children. Further studies are required to validate this method. Cite this article:
Aims. To achieve expert clinical consensus in the delivery of hydrodilatation for the treatment of primary frozen shoulder to inform clinical practice and the design of an intervention for evaluation. Methods. We conducted a two-stage, electronic questionnaire-based, modified Delphi survey of shoulder experts in the UK NHS. Round one required positive, negative, or neutral ratings about hydrodilatation. In round two, each participant was reminded of their round one responses and the modal (or ‘group’) response from all participants. This allowed participants to modify their responses in round two. We proposed respectively mandating or encouraging elements of hydrodilatation with 100% and 90% positive consensus, and respectively disallowing or discouraging with 90% and 80% negative consensus. Other elements would be optional. Results. Between 4 August 2020 and 4 August 2021, shoulder experts from 47 hospitals in the UK completed the study. There were 106 participants (consultant upper limb orthopaedic surgeons, n = 50; consultant radiologists, n = 52; consultant physiotherapist, n = 1; extended scope physiotherapists, n = 3) who completed round one, of whom 97 (92%) completed round two. No elements of hydrodilatation were “mandated” (100% positive rating). Elements that were “encouraged” (≥ 80% positive rating) were the use of image guidance, local anaesthetic, normal saline, and steroids to deliver the injection. Injecting according to patient tolerance, physiotherapy, and home exercises were also “encouraged”. No elements were “discouraged” (≥ 80% negative rating) although using hypertonic saline was rated as being “disallowed” (≥ 90% negative rating). Conclusion. In the absence of rigorous evidence, our Delphi study allowed us to achieve expert consensus about positive, negative, and neutral ratings of hydrodilatation in the management of frozen shoulder in a hospital setting. This should inform clinical practice and the design of an intervention for evaluation. Cite this article:
Aims. The aim of this study was to determine whether there is a correlation between the grade of humeral osteoarthritis (OA) and the severity of glenoid morphology according to Walch. We hypothesized that there would be a correlation. Methods. Overal, 143 shoulders in 135 patients (73 females, 62 males) undergoing shoulder arthroplasty surgery for primary glenohumeral OA were included consecutively. Mean age was 69.3 years (47 to 85). Humeral head (HH), osteophyte length (OL), and morphology (transverse decentering of the apex, transverse, or coronal asphericity) on radiographs were correlated to the glenoid morphology according to Walch (A1, A2, B1, B2, B3), glenoid retroversion, and humeral subluxation on CT images. Results. Increased humeral OL correlated with a higher grade of glenoid morphology (A1-A2-B1-B2-B3) according to Walch (r = 0.672; p < 0.0001). It also correlated with glenoid retroversion (r = 0.707; p < 0.0001), and posterior humeral subluxation (r = 0.452; p < 0.0001). A higher humeral OL (odds ratio (OR) 1.17; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03 to 1.32; p = 0.013), posterior humeral subluxation (OR 1.11; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.22; p = 0.031), and glenoid retroversion (OR 1.48; 95% CI 1.30 to 1.68; p < 0.001) were independent factors for a higher glenoid morphology. More specifically, a humeral OL of ≥ 13 mm was indicative of eccentric glenoid types B2 and B3 (OR 14.20; 95% CI 5.96 to 33.85). Presence of an aspherical HH in the coronal plane was suggestive of glenoid types B2 and B3 (OR 3.34; 95% CI 1.67 to 6.68). Conclusion. The criteria of humeral OL and HH morphology are associated with increasing glenoid retroversion, posterior humeral subluxation, and eccentric glenoid wear. Therefore, humeral radiological parameters might hint at the morphology on the glenoid side. Cite this article:
Aims. The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a prognostic nomogram to predict the probability of gaining a functional range of motion (ROM ≥ 120°) after open arthrolysis of the elbow in patients with post-traumatic stiffness of the elbow. Methods. We developed the Shanghai Prediction Model for Elbow Stiffness Surgical Outcome (SPESSO) based on a dataset of 551 patients who underwent open arthrolysis of the elbow in four institutions. Demographic and clinical characteristics were collected from medical records. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize the selection of relevant features. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to build the SPESSO. Its prediction performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and a calibration graph. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. BMI, the duration of stiffness, the preoperative ROM, the preoperative intensity of pain, and grade of post-traumatic osteoarthritis of the elbow were identified as predictors of outcome and incorporated to construct the nomogram. SPESSO displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.73 (95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.81). A high C-index value of 0.70 could still be reached in the interval validation. The calibration graph showed good agreement between the nomogram prediction and the outcome. Conclusion. The newly developed SPESSO is a valid and convenient model which can be used to predict the outcome of open arthrolysis of the elbow. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding the choice and expectations of treatment. Cite this article:
