Introduction

There is little published literature to support the claim that a successful total knee replacement (TKR) is predictive of future good outcomes on the contralateral side. The objective was to identify whether outcome from the first of staged TKRs could be used to predict the outcome of the contralateral TKR.

Methodology

This was a retrospective cohort study of 1687 patients over a 25-year period undergoing staged bilateral TKRs in a UK arthroplasty centre. A control group of 1687 patients undergoing unilateral TKR with matched characteristics was identified.

Primary outcomes: satisfaction and Knee Society Score (KSS) at one year.

Results

Preoperative status was comparable for pain, ROM and KSS (mean 41, 45, 43±14).

At one year, dissatisfaction was similar for all groups (4% first of staged TKR, 4% second of staged TKR, 5% controls). If the first TKR had a good outcome, the relative risk of a contralateral bad outcome was 20% less than controls (95% CI 0.6–1.2). If the first TKR had a poor outcome, the risk of a second poor outcome was 4 times higher (95% CI 2.8–6.1), increasing from 6% to 28% (absolute risk).

Conclusion

Patients undergoing the second of staged TKRs with a previous good outcome are likely to do well in their second procedure (94 in 100 will go on to have a second good outcome). Of those with a previous poor outcome, 28 in 100 will have a second poor outcome. The trend was persistent despite correcting for gender, age, BMI, and diagnosis.