Abstract
Hip fracture represents a significant challenge, placing increasing pressure on health and social care services in Scotland. This study establishes the ‘historic’ hip fracture burden, namely, the annual number of hip fractures in Scotland, and respective incidence, between 2017 – 2021. Furthermore, the ‘projected’ hip fracture burden and incidence from 2022 – 2029 was estimated, to inform future capacity and funding of health and social care services.
The number of individuals with a hip fracture in Scotland between 2017 and 2021 was identified through the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit, enabling the annual number of hip fractures and respective incidence between 2017 – 2021 to be calculated. Projection modelling was performed using Exponential Smoothing and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average to estimate the number of hip fractures occurring annually from 2022 – 2029. A combined average projection was employed to provide a more accurate forecast. Accounting for predicted changes within the population demographics of Scotland, the projected hip fracture incidence up to 2029 was calculated.
Between 2017 and 2021 the annual number of hip fractures in Scotland increased from 6675 to 7797 (15%), with an increase in incidence from 313 to 350 per 100,000 (11%) of the at-risk population. Hip fracture was observed to increase across all groups, notably males, and the 70–79 and 80–89 age cohorts. By 2029, the combined average projection estimated the annual number of hip fractures at 10311, with an incidence rate of 463 per 100,000, representing a 32% increase from 2021. The largest percentage increase in hip fracture by 2029 occurs in the 70–79 and 80–89 age cohorts (57% and 53% respectively). Based upon these projections, overall length of hospital stay following hip fracture will increase by 60699 days per annum by 2029, incurring an additional cost of at least £25 million.
Projection modelling demonstrates the annual number of hip fractures in Scotland will increase substantially by 2029, with significant implications for health and social care services. This increase in hip fracture burden and incidence is influenced strongly by changing population demographics, primarily an ageing population.
