Abstract
Statistics New Zealand states “Over the next five decades the 65+ dependency ratio is projected to more than double, from 18 (people aged 65+ years) per 100 (people aged 15 – 64 years) in 2006 to 45 per 100 in 2061. This means that for every person aged 65+ years, there will be 2.2 people in the working-age group in 2061, compared with 5.4 people in 2006 “. This will have a profound impact on health care, specifically in those fractures sustained by the elderly e.g. fractured neck of femur (#NOF).
Also at present little is proven regarding outcome following #NOF in the New Zealand population. These two factors (population change and patient outcome) led to disagreement and healthy debate at the 2008 NZOA ASM. After a pilot study in Dunedin we have examined national electronic records of 52,456 patients presenting with a first admission due to #NOF over the last 20 years.
The mean age at which a patient sustained their first #NOF was around 80 and 71% of these patients have since died. Approximately 10% of patients had a subsequent readmission for #NOF. There was a trend for increasing age over the last twenty years proportional to the increased average age of the general population. One year survival was 75% and mean survival was 3½ years with a third of patients living longer than six years. We found differences in outcome for gender and fracture type (intracapsular vs. extracapsular). Our patients also showed a trend to higher survival risk ratios (i.e. they are clinically “sicker” than they used to be). The incidence of #NOF has increased over the last 20 years with a projected doubling in the number of cases (to 5600 per year) at around 25yrs from now based on the most conservative estimates.
Correspondence should be addressed to: Associate Professor N. Susan Stott, Orthopaedic Department, Starship Children’s Hospital, Private Bag 92024, Auckland, New Zealand.
