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Environmental and genetic risk factors associated with total knee arthroplasty following cruciate ligament surgery

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The purpose of this study is to determine an individual’s age-specific prevalence of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) after cruciate ligament surgery, and to identify clinical and genetic risk factors associated with undergoing TKA.


This study was a retrospective case-control study using the UK Biobank to identify individuals reporting a history of cruciate ligament surgery. Data from verbal history and procedural codes recorded through the NHS were used to identify instances of TKA. Patient clinical and genetic data were used to identify risk factors for progression from cruciate ligament surgery to TKA. Individuals without a history of cruciate ligament reconstruction were used for comparison.


A total of 2,576 individuals with a history of cruciate ligament surgery were identified, with 290 (11.25%) undergoing TKA. In patients with prior cruciate ligament surgery, prevalence of TKA was 0.75% at age 45 years, 9.10% at age 65 years, and 20.43% at age 80 years. Patients with prior cruciate ligament surgery were 4.6 times more likely to have undergone TKA by age 55 years than individuals without prior cruciate ligament surgery. In the cruciate ligament surgery cohort, BMI > 30 kg/m2 (odds ratio (OR) 4.01 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.74 to 5.87)), a job that always involved heavy manual or physical labour (OR 2.72 (95% CI 1.57 to 4.71)), or a job that always involved walking and standing (OR 2.58 (95% CI 1.58 to 4.20)) were associated with greater TKA odds. No single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) was associated with risk of TKA following cruciate ligament surgery.


Patients with a history of prior cruciate ligament surgery have substantially higher risk of TKA and undergo arthroplasty at a relatively younger age than individuals without a history of prior cruciate ligament surgery. Physically demanding work and obesity were associated with higher odds of TKA after cruciate ligament surgery, but no SNP was associated with risk of TKA.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(3):249–255.

Correspondence should be sent to Elizabeth L. Yanik. E-mail:

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