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The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 103-B, Issue 3 | Pages 469 - 478
1 Mar 2021
Garland A Bülow E Lenguerrand E Blom A Wilkinson M Sayers A Rolfson O Hailer NP


To develop and externally validate a parsimonious statistical prediction model of 90-day mortality after elective total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to provide a web calculator for clinical usage.


We included 53,099 patients with cemented THA due to osteoarthritis from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Registry for model derivation and internal validation, as well as 125,428 patients from England and Wales recorded in the National Joint Register for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man, and the States of Guernsey (NJR) for external model validation. A model was developed using a bootstrap ranking procedure with a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression model combined with piecewise linear regression. Discriminative ability was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration belt plots were used to assess model calibration.

The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 102-B, Issue 7 | Pages 941 - 949
1 Jul 2020
Price AJ Kang S Cook JA Dakin H Blom A Arden N Fitzpatrick R Beard DJ


To calculate how the likelihood of obtaining measurable benefit from hip or knee arthroplasty varies with preoperative patient-reported scores.


Existing UK data from 222,933 knee and 209,760 hip arthroplasty patients were used to model an individual’s probability of gaining meaningful improvement after surgery based on their preoperative Oxford Knee or Hip Score (OKS/OHS). A clinically meaningful improvement after arthroplasty was defined as ≥ 8 point improvement in OHS, and ≥ 7 in OKS.

The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 99-B, Issue 12 | Pages 1618 - 1628
1 Dec 2017
Hunt LP Blom A Wilkinson JM


To investigate whether elective joint arthroplasty performed at the weekend is associated with a different 30-day mortality versus that performed between Monday and Friday.

Patients and Methods

We examined the 30-day cumulative mortality rate (Kaplan-Meier) for all elective hip and knee arthroplasties performed in England and Wales between 1st April 2003 and 31st December 2014, comprising 118 096 episodes undertaken at the weekend and 1 233 882 episodes performed on a weekday. We used Cox proportional-hazards regression models to assess for time-dependent variation and adjusted for identified risk factors for mortality.

The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 90-B, Issue 7 | Pages 920 - 923
1 Jul 2008
Wylde V Blom A Dieppe P Hewlett S Learmonth I

Our aim was to determine the pre-operative sporting profiles of patients undergoing primary joint replacement and to establish if they were able to return to sport after surgery. A postal survey was completed by 2085 patients between one and three years after operation. They had undergone one of five operations, namely total hip replacement, hip resurfacing, total knee replacement, unicompartmental knee replacement or patellar resurfacing. In the three years before operation 726 (34.8%) patients were participating in sport, the most common being swimming, walking and golf. A total of 446 (61.4%) had returned to their sporting activities by one to three years after operation and 192 (26.4%) were unable to do so because of their joint replacement, with the most common reason being pain. The largest decline was in high-impact sports including badminton, tennis and dancing. After controlling for the influence of age and gender, there was no significant difference in the rate of return to sport according to the type of operation.