Aims. To determine the major risk factors for unplanned reoperations (UROs) following corrective surgery for adult spinal deformity (ASD) and their interactions, using machine learning-based prediction algorithms and game theory. Methods. Patients who underwent surgery for ASD, with a minimum of two-year follow-up, were retrospectively reviewed. In total, 210 patients were included and randomly allocated into training (70% of the sample size) and test (the remaining 30%) sets to develop the machine learning algorithm. Risk factors were included in the analysis, along with clinical characteristics and parameters acquired through diagnostic radiology. Results. Overall, 152 patients without and 58 with a history of surgical revision following surgery for ASD were observed; the mean age was 68.9 years (SD 8.7) and 66.9 years (SD 6.6), respectively. On implementing a random forest model, the classification of URO events resulted in a balanced accuracy of 86.8%. Among machine learning-extracted risk factors, URO, proximal junction failure (PJF), and postoperative distance from the posterosuperior corner of C7 and the vertical axis from the centroid of C2 (SVA) were significant upon Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Conclusion. The major risk factors for URO following surgery for ASD, i.e. postoperative SVA and PJF, and their interactions were identified using a machine learning algorithm and game theory. Clinical benefits will depend on patient risk profiles. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(4):245–255

Aims. To identify the incidence and risk factors for five-year same-site recurrent disc herniation (sRDH) after primary single-level lumbar discectomy. Secondary outcome was the incidence and risk factors for five-year sRDH reoperation. Methods. A retrospective study was conducted using prospectively collected data and patient-reported outcome measures, including the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), between 2008 and 2019. Postoperative sRDH was identified from clinical notes and the centre’s MRI database, with all imaging providers in the region checked for missing events. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate five-year sRDH incidence. Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify independent variables predictive of sRDH, with any variable not significant at the p < 0.1 level removed. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results. Complete baseline data capture was available for 733 of 754 (97.2%) consecutive patients. Median follow-up time for censored patients was 2.2 years (interquartile range (IQR) 1.0 to 5.0). sRDH occurred in 63 patients at a median 0.8 years (IQR 0.5 to 1.7) after surgery. The five-year Kaplan-Meier estimate for sRDH was 12.1% (95% CI 9.5 to 15.4), sRDH reoperation was 7.5% (95% CI 5.5 to 10.2), and any-procedure reoperation was 14.1% (95% CI 11.1 to 17.5). Current smoker (HR 2.12 (95% CI 1.26 to 3.56)) and higher preoperative ODI (HR 1.02 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.03)) were independent risk factors associated with sRDH. Current smoker (HR 2.15 (95% CI 1.12 to 4.09)) was an independent risk factor for sRDH reoperation. Conclusion. This is one of the largest series to date which has identified current smoker and higher preoperative disability as independent risk factors for sRDH. Current smoker was an independent risk factor for sRDH reoperation. These findings are important for spinal surgeons and rehabilitation specialists in risk assessment, consenting patients, and perioperative management. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(3):315–322

Aims. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence and characteristics of instrumentation failure (IF) after total en bloc spondylectomy (TES), and to analyze risk factors for IF. Methods. The medical records from 136 patients (65 male, 71 female) with a mean age of 52.7 years (14 to 80) who underwent TES were retrospectively reviewed. The mean follow-up period was 101 months (36 to 232). Analyzed factors included incidence of IF, age, sex, BMI, history of chemotherapy or radiotherapy, tumour histology (primary or metastasis; benign or malignant), surgical approach (posterior or combined), tumour location (thoracic or lumbar; junctional or non-junctional), number of resected vertebrae (single or multilevel), anterior resection line (disc-to-disc or intravertebra), type of bone graft (autograft or frozen autograft), cage subsidence (CS), and local alignment (LA). A survival analysis of the instrumentation was performed, and relationships between IF and other factors were investigated using the Cox regression model. Results. A total of 44 patients (32.4%) developed IF at a median of 31 months (interquartile range 23 to 74) following TES. Most IFs were rod fractures preceded by a mean CS of 6.1 mm (2 to 18) and LA kyphotic enhancement of 10.8° (-1 to 36). IF-free survival rates were 75.8% at five years and 56.9% at ten years. The interval from TES to IF peaked at two to three years postoperatively and continued to occur over a period of time thereafter; the early IF-developing group had greater CS at one month postoperatively (CS1M) and more lumbar TES. CS1M ≥ 3 mm and sole use of frozen autografts were identified as independent risk factors for IF. Conclusion. IF is a common complication following TES. We have demonstrated that robust spinal reconstruction preventing CS, and high-quality bone grafting are necessary for successful reconstruction. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(2):172–179

Aims. Open discectomy (OD) is the standard operation for lumbar disc herniation (LDH). Percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy (PELD), however, has shown similar outcomes to OD and there is increasing interest in this procedure. However despite improved surgical techniques and instrumentation, reoperation and infection rates continue and are reported to be between 6% and 24% and 0.7% and 16%, respectively. The objective of this study was to compare the rate of reoperation and infection within six months of patients being treated for LDH either by OD or PELD. Methods. In this retrospective, nationwide cohort study, the Korean National Health Insurance database from 1 January 2007 to 31 December 2018 was reviewed. Data were extracted for patients who underwent OD or PELD for LDH without a history of having undergone either procedure during the preceding year. Individual patients were followed for six months through their encrypted unique resident registration number. The primary endpoints were rates of reoperation and infection during the follow-up period. Other risk factors for reoperation and infection were also evalulated. Results. Out of 549,531 patients, 522,640 had undergone OD (95.11%) and 26,891 patients had undergone PELD (4.89%). Reoperation rates within six months were 2.28% in the OD group, and 5.38% in the PELD group. Infection rates were 1.18% in OD group and 0.83% in PELD group. The risk of reoperation was lower for patients with OD than for patients with PELD (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.38). The risk of infection was higher for patients with OD than for patients undergoing PELD (HR, 1.325). Conclusion. Compared with the OD group, the PELD group showed higher reoperation rates and lower infection rates. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(8):1392–1399

Aims. This study, using a surgeon-maintained database, aimed to explore the risk factors for surgery-related complications in patients undergoing primary cervical spine surgery for degenerative diseases. Methods. We studied 5,015 patients with degenerative cervical diseases who underwent primary cervical spine surgery from 2012 to 2018. We investigated the effects of diseases, surgical procedures, and patient demographics on surgery-related complications. As subcategories, the presence of cervical kyphosis ≥ 10°, the presence of ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament (OPLL) with a canal-occupying ratio ≥ 50%, and foraminotomy were selected. The surgery-related complications examined were postoperative upper limb palsy (ULP) with a manual muscle test (MMT) grade of 0 to 2 or a reduction of two grade or more in the MMT, neurological deficit except ULP, dural tear, dural leakage, surgical-site infection (SSI), and postoperative haematoma. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed. Results. The significant risk factors (p < 0.050) for ULP were OPLL (odds ratio (OR) 1.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29 to 2.75), foraminotomy (OR 5.38, 95% CI 3.28 to 8.82), old age (per ten years, OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.36), anterior spinal fusion (OR 2.85, 95% CI 1.53 to 5.34), and the number of operated levels (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.40). OPLL was also a risk factor for neurological deficit except ULP (OR 5.84, 95% CI 2.80 to 12.8), dural tear (OR 1.94, 95% CI 1.11 to 3.39), and dural leakage (OR 3.15, 95% CI 1.48 to 6.68). Among OPLL patients, dural tear and dural leakage were frequently observed in those with a canal-occupying ratio ≥ 50%. Cervical rheumatoid arthritis (RA) was a risk factor for SSI (OR 10.1, 95% CI 2.66 to 38.4). Conclusion. The high risk of ULP, neurological deficit except ULP, dural tear, and dural leak should be acknowledged by clinicians and OPLL patients, especially in those patients with a canal-occupying ratio ≥ 50%. Foraminotomy and RA were dominant risk factors for ULP and SSI, respectively. An awareness of these risks may help surgeons to avoid surgery-related complications in these conditions. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(1):157–163

Aims. The aim of this study was to determine the influence of developmental spinal stenosis (DSS) on the risk of re-operation at an adjacent level. Patients and Methods. This was a retrospective study of 235 consecutive patients who had undergone decompression-only surgery for lumbar spinal stenosis and had a minimum five-year follow-up. There were 106 female patients (45.1%) and 129 male patients (54.9%), with a mean age at surgery of 66.8 years (. sd. 11.3). We excluded those with adult deformity and spondylolisthesis. Presenting symptoms, levels operated on initially and at re-operation were studied. MRI measurements included the anteroposterior diameter of the bony spinal canal, the degree of disc degeneration, and the thickness of the ligamentum flavum. DSS was defined by comparative measurements of the bony spinal canal. Risk factors for re-operation at the adjacent level were determined and included in a multivariate stepwise logistic regression for prediction modelling. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals were calculated. Results. Of the 235 patients, 21.7% required re-operation at an adjacent segment. Re-operation at an adjacent segment was associated with DSS (p = 0.026), the number of levels decompressed (p = 0.008), and age at surgery (p = 0.013). Multivariate regression model (p < 0.001) controlled for other confounders showed that DSS was a significant predictor of re-operation at an adjacent segment, with an adjusted OR of 3.93. Conclusion. Patients with DSS who have undergone lumbar spinal decompression are 3.9 times more likely to undergo future surgery at an adjacent level. This is a poor prognostic indicator that can be identified prior to index decompression surgery

Objectives. The objective of this study was to assess the association between whole body sagittal balance and risk of falls in elderly patients who have sought treatment for back pain. Balanced spinal sagittal alignment is known to be important for the prevention of falls. However, spinal sagittal imbalance can be markedly compensated by the lower extremities, and whole body sagittal balance including the lower extremities should be assessed to evaluate actual imbalances related to falls. Methods. Patients over 70 years old who visited an outpatient clinic for back pain treatment and underwent a standing whole-body radiograph were enrolled. Falls were prospectively assessed for 12 months using a monthly fall diary, and patients were divided into fallers and non-fallers according to the history of falls. Radiological parameters from whole-body radiographs and clinical data were compared between the two groups. Results. A total of 144 patients (120 female patients and 24 male patients) completed a 12-month follow-up for assessing falls. A total of 31 patients (21.5%) reported at least one fall within the 12-month follow-up. In univariate logistic regression analysis, the risk of falls was significantly increased in older patients and those with more medical comorbidities, decreased lumbar lordosis, increased sagittal vertical axis, and increased horizontal distance between the C7 plumb line and the centre of the ankle (C7A). Increased C7A was significantly associated with increased risk of falls even after multivariate adjustment. Conclusion. Whole body sagittal balance, measured by the horizontal distance between the C7 plumb line and the centre of the ankle, was significantly associated with risk of falls among elderly patients with back pain. Cite this article: J. Kim, J. Y. Hwang, J. K. Oh, M. S. Park, S. W. Kim, H. Chang, T-H. Kim. The association between whole body sagittal balance and risk of falls among elderly patients seeking treatment for back pain. Bone Joint Res 2017;6:–344. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.65.BJR-2016-0271.R2

The revised Tokuhashi, Tomita and modified Bauer scores are commonly used to make difficult decisions in the management of patients presenting with spinal metastases. A prospective cohort study of 199 consecutive patients presenting with spinal metastases, treated with either surgery and/or radiotherapy, was used to compare the three systems. Cox regression, Nagelkerke’s R. 2. and Harrell’s concordance were used to compare the systems and find their best predictive items. The three systems were equally good in terms of overall prognostic performance. Their most predictive items were used to develop the Oswestry Spinal Risk Index (OSRI), which has a similar concordance, but a larger coefficient of determination than any of these three scores. A bootstrap procedure was used to internally validate this score and determine its prediction optimism. The OSRI is a simple summation of two elements: primary tumour pathology (PTP) and general condition (GC): OSRI = PTP + (2 – GC). This simple score can predict life expectancy accurately in patients presenting with spinal metastases. It will be helpful in making difficult clinical decisions without the delay of extensive investigations. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:210–16

The aim of this study was first, to determine whether CT scans undertaken to identify serious injury to the viscera were of use in detecting clinically unrecognised fractures of the thoracolumbar vertebrae, and second, to identify patients at risk of ‘missed injury’. . We retrospectively analysed CT scans of the chest and abdomen performed for blunt injury to the torso in 303 patients. These proved to be positive for thoracic and intra-abdominal injuries in only 2% and 1.3% of cases, respectively. However, 51 (16.8%) showed a fracture of the thoracolumbar vertebrae and these constituted our subset for study. There were eight women and 43 men with mean age of 45.2 years (15 to 94). There were 29 (57%) stable and 22 (43%) unstable fractures. Only 17 fractures (33.3%) had been anticipated after clinical examination. Of the 22 unstable fractures, 11 (50%) were anticipated. Thus, within the whole group of 303 patients, an unstable spinal injury was missed in 11 patients (3.6%); no harm resulted as they were all protected until the spine had been cleared. A subset analysis revealed that patients with a high Injury Severity Score, a low Glasgow Coma Scale and haemodynamic instability were most likely to have a significant fracture in the absence of positive clinical findings. This is the group at greatest risk. Clinical examination alone cannot detect significant fractures of the thoracolumbar spine. It should be combined with CT imaging to reduce the risk of missed injury

Our aim was to judge the influence of preoperative psychological disturbance on the outcome of lumbar discectomy. We evaluated 66 patients, before and after operation, using a self-administered questionnaire. Disability was assessed using the Oswestry disability index and psychological disturbance the Distress and Risk Assessment Method (DRAM) score. Patients were classified as normal, at risk or distressed, and the outcome of surgery in the three groups was compared at a follow-up of six months. The mean self-reported preoperative disability was significantly higher in those with psychological disturbance. A total of 54 patients (82%) returned completed postoperative questionnaires. Postoperative disability scores at six months were not significantly different in the three risk groups. Psychological disturbance improved after surgery. Our study suggests that the early outcome of lumbar discectomy is not affected by preoperative psychological disturbance. We conclude that a patient with a symptomatic prolapsed intervertebral disc should not be denied surgery on the basis of preoperative psychological assessment

In order to identify the risk factors and the incidence of post-operative spinal epidural haematoma, we analysed the records of 14 932 patients undergoing spinal surgery between 1984 and 2002. Of these, 32 (0.2%) required re-operation within one week of the initial procedure and had an International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 code for haematoma complicating a procedure (998.12). As controls, we selected those who had undergone a procedure of equal complexity by the same surgeon but who had not developed this complication. Risks identified before operation were older than 60 years of age, the use of pre-operative non-steroidal anti-inflammatories and Rh-positive blood type. Those during the procedure were involvement of more than five operative levels, a haemoglobin < 10 g/dL, and blood loss > 1 L, and after operation an international normalised ratio > 2.0 within the first 48 hours. All these were identified as significant (p < 0.03). Well-controlled anticoagulation and the use of drains were not associated with an increased risk of post-operative spinal epidural haematoma

We report the incidence of and risk factors for complications after scoliosis surgery in patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) and compare them with those of other neuromuscular conditions. We identified 110 (64 males, 46 females) consecutive patients with a neuromuscular disorder who underwent correction of the scoliosis at a mean age of 14 years (7 to 19) and had a minimum two-year follow-up. We recorded demographic and peri-operative data, including complications and re-operations. There were 60 patients with cerebral palsy (54.5%) and 26 with DMD (23.6%). The overall complication rate was 22% (24 patients), the most common of which were deep wound infection (9, 8.1%), gastrointestinal complications (5, 4.5%) and hepatotoxicity (4, 3.6%). The complication rate was higher in patients with DMD (10/26, 38.5%) than in those with other neuromuscular conditions (14/84, 16.7% (p = 0.019). All hepatotoxicity occurred in patients with DMD (p = 0.003), who also had an increased rate of deep wound infection (19% vs 5%) (p = 0.033). In the DMD group, no peri-operative factors were significantly associated with the rate of overall complications or deep wound infection. Increased intra-operative blood loss was associated with hepatotoxicity (p = 0.036). In our series, correction of a neuromuscular scoliosis had an acceptable rate of complications: patients with DMD had an increased overall rate compared with those with other neuromuscular conditions. These included deep wound infection and hepatotoxicity. Hepatotoxicity was unique to DMD patients, and we recommend peri-operative vigilance after correction of a scoliosis in this group. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014; 96-B:943–9

Aims. We performed a retrospective, comparative study of elderly patients with an increased risk from anaesthesia who had undergone either anterior screw fixation (ASF) or halo vest immobilisation (HVI) for a type II odontoid fracture. Patients and Methods. A total of 80 patients aged 65 years or more who had undergone either ASF or HVI for a type II odontoid fracture between 1988 and 2013 were reviewed. There were 47 women and 33 men with a mean age of 73 (65 to 96; standard deviation 7). All had an American Society of Anesthesiologists score of 2 or more. Results. Patients who underwent ASF had a significantly better outcome than those who were treated by HVI. There was a rate of nonunion of 10% after ASF and 23% after HVI. Failure of reduction or fixation occurred in 11 patients (15%) but there was no significant difference between the two groups. Mortality rates were also similar: 9% (n = 3) after ASF and 8% (n = 4) after HVI. Conclusion. We conclude that ASF is the preferred method of treatment in this group of elderly patients, having a significantly higher rate of fusion, better clinical outcome and a similar rate of general and treatment-related complications. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:1222–6

We investigated the incidence of anomalies in the vertebral arteries and Circle of Willis with three-dimensional CT angiography in 55 consecutive patients who had undergone an instrumented posterior fusion of the cervical spine.

We recorded any peri-operative and post-operative complications. The frequency of congenital anomalies was 30.9%, abnormal vertebral artery blood flow was 58.2% and vertebral artery dominance 40%.

The posterior communicating artery was occluded on one side in 41.8% of patients and bilaterally in 38.2%. Variations in the vertebral arteries and Circle of Willis were not significantly related to the presence or absence of posterior communicating arteries. Importantly, 18.2% of patients showed characteristic variations in the Circle of Willis with unilateral vertebral artery stenosis or a dominant vertebral artery, indicating that injury may cause lethal complications. One patient had post-operative cerebellar symptoms due to intra-operative injury of the vertebral artery, and one underwent a different surgical procedure because of insufficient collateral circulation.

Pre-operative assessment of the vertebral arteries and Circle of Willis is essential if a posterior spinal fusion with instrumentation is to be carried out safely.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014;96-B:535–40.

Percutaneous nucleotomy is a relatively new technique for treating lumbar disc herniation. There is no agreement as to the volume of disc material to be removed. A long-term study of clinical and radiological data from patients treated by percutaneous nucleotomy was designed to identify the factors associated with favourable and unfavourable outcomes. We studied 42 patients for at least ten years; the mean follow-up was 10.9 years. They were divided into two subgroups to assess the value of preserving the nucleus pulposus in the central area of the disc.

The overall success rate for both subgroups was 50%. A decrease in disc height on plain radiography and a decrease in signal intensity on MRI were observed more infrequently in patients in whom the nucleus pulposus in the central area of the disc had been preserved, than in those in whom it had been extensively removed. These adverse radiological findings correlated closely with increased low back pain during the first one to two years after operation and a poorer overall outcome.

We conclude that percutaneous nucleotomy is most likely to be successful when the central area of the disc is preserved.

Aims. Postoperative complication rates remain relatively high after adult spinal deformity (ASD) surgery. The extent to which modifiable patient-related factors influence complication rates in patients with ASD has not been effectively evaluated. The aim of this retrospective cohort study was to evaluate the association between modifiable patient-related factors and complications after corrective surgery for ASD. Methods. ASD patients with two-year data were included. Complications were categorized as follows: any complication, major, medical, surgical, major mechanical, major radiological, and reoperation. Modifiable risk factors included smoking, obesity, osteoporosis, alcohol use, depression, psychiatric diagnosis, and hypertension. Patients were stratified by the degree of baseline deformity (low degree of deformity (LowDef)/high degree of deformity (HighDef): below or above 20°) and age (Older/Younger: above or below 65 years). Complication rates were compared for modifiable risk factors in each age/deformity group, using multivariable logistic regression analysis to adjust for confounders. Results. A total of 480 ASD patients met the inclusion criteria. By two years, complication rates were 72% ≥ one complication, 28% major, 21% medical, 27% surgical, 11% major radiological, 8% major mechanical, and 22% required reoperation. Younger LowDef patients with osteoporosis were more likely to suffer either a major mechanical (odds ratio (OR) 5.9 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1 to 36.9); p = 0.048) or radiological complication (OR 7.0 (95% CI 1.9 to 25.9); p = 0.003). Younger HighDef patients were much more likely to develop complications if obese, especially major mechanical complications (OR 2.8 (95% CI 1.1 to 8.6); p = 0.044). Older HighDef patients developed more complications when diagnosed with depression, including major radiological complications (OR 3.5 (95% CI 1.1 to 10.6); p = 0.033). Overall, a diagnosis of depression proved to be a risk factor for the development of major radiological complications (OR 2.4 (95% CI 1.3 to 4.5); p = 0.005). Conclusion. Certain modifiable patient-related factors, especially osteoporosis, obesity, and mental health status, are associated with an increased risk of complications after surgery for spinal deformity. Surgeons should look for these conditions when assessing a patient for surgery, and optimize them to the fullest extent possible before proceeding to surgical correction so as to minimize the prospect of postoperative morbidity. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(11):1249–1255

Aims. The prevalence of scoliosis is not known in patients with idiopathic short stature, and the impact of treatment with recombinant human growth hormone on those with scoliosis remains controversial. We investigated the prevalence of scoliosis radiologically in children with idiopathic short stature, and the impact of treatment with growth hormone in a cross-sectional and retrospective cohort study. Methods. A total of 2,053 children with idiopathic short stature and 4,106 age- and sex-matched (1:2) children without short stature with available whole-spine radiographs were enrolled in the cross-sectional study. Among them, 1,056 with idiopathic short stature and 790 controls who had radiographs more than twice were recruited to assess the development and progression of scoliosis, and the need for bracing and surgery. Results. In the cross-sectional study, there was an unexpectedly higher prevalence of scoliosis (33.1% (681/2,053) vs 8.52% (350/4,106)) in children with idiopathic short stature compared with controls (odds ratio 3.722; p < 0.001), although most cases were mild. In the longitudinal study, children with idiopathic short stature had a higher risk of the development and progression of scoliosis than the controls. Among children with idiopathic short stature without scoliosis at baseline, treatment with growth hormone significantly increased the risk of developing scoliosis (p = 0.015) and the need for bracing (p < 0.001). Among those with idiopathic short stature and scoliosis at baseline, treatment with growth hormone did not increase the risk of progression of the scoliosis, the need for bracing, or surgery. Conclusion. The impact of treatment with growth hormone on scoliosis in children with idiopathic short stature was considered controllable. However, physicians should pay close attention to the assessment of spinal curves in these children. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(4):439–448

Aims. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of morphological spinal parameters to predict the outcome of bracing in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) and to establish a novel supine correction index (SCI) for guiding bracing treatment. Methods. Patients with AIS to be treated by bracing were prospectively recruited between December 2016 and 2018, and were followed until brace removal. In all, 207 patients with a mean age at recruitment of 12.8 years (SD 1.2) were enrolled. Cobb angles, supine flexibility, and the rate of in-brace correction were measured and used to predict curve progression at the end of follow-up. The SCI was defined as the ratio between correction rate and flexibility. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was carried out to assess the optimal thresholds for flexibility, correction rate, and SCI in predicting a higher risk of progression, defined by a change in Cobb angle of ≥ 5° or the need for surgery. Results. The baseline Cobb angles were similar (p = 0.374) in patients whose curves progressed (32.7° (SD 10.7)) and in those whose curves remained stable (31.4° (SD 6.1)). High supine flexibility (odds ratio (OR) 0.947 (95% CI 0.910 to 0.984); p = 0.006) and correction rate (OR 0.926 (95% CI 0.890 to 0.964); p < 0.001) predicted a lower incidence of progression after adjusting for Cobb angle, Risser sign, curve type, menarche status, distal radius and ulna grading, and brace compliance. ROC curve analysis identified a cut-off of 18.1% for flexibility (sensitivity 0.682, specificity 0.704) and a cut-off of 28.8% for correction rate (sensitivity 0.773, specificity 0.691) in predicting a lower risk of curve progression. A SCI of greater than 1.21 predicted a lower risk of progression (OR 0.4 (95% CI 0.251 to 0.955); sensitivity 0.583, specificity 0.591; p = 0.036). Conclusion. A higher supine flexibility (18.1%) and correction rate (28.8%), and a SCI of greater than 1.21 predicted a lower risk of progression. These novel parameters can be used as a guide to optimize the outcome of bracing. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):495–503

Aims. Patients with differentiated thyroid carcinomas (DTCs) have a favourable long-term survival. Spinal metastases (SMs) cause a decline in performance status (PS), directly affecting mortality and indirectly preventing the use of systemic therapies. Metastasectomy is indicated, if feasible, as it yields the best local tumour control. Our study aimed to examine the long-term clinical outcomes of metastasectomy for SMs of thyroid carcinomas. Methods. We collected data on 22 patients with DTC (16 follicular and six papillary carcinomas) and one patient with medullary carcinoma who underwent complete surgical resection of SMs at our institution between July 1992 and July 2017, with a minimum postoperative follow-up of five years. The cancer-specific survival (CSS) from the first spinal metastasectomy to death or the last follow-up was determined using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Potential factors associated with survival were evaluated using the log-rank test. We analyzed the clinical parameters and outcome data, including pre- and postoperative disability (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group PS 3), lung and non-spinal bone metastases, and history of radioiodine and kinase inhibitor therapies. Results. Lung and other bone metastases at the time of surgery were observed in ten and eight patients, respectively. Three patients experienced local tumour recurrences at the operated site. The five- and ten-year CSS rates in the 22 patients with DTC were 77% and 52%, respectively. Pre- and postoperative disability and operative site tumour recurrence were identified as risk factors for short postoperative survival. Conclusion. Metastasectomy for resectable SM from DTC yielded favourable results and has the potential to improve survival. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(5):575–582

Aims. This systematic review aims to identify 3D predictors derived from biplanar reconstruction, and to describe current methods for improving curve prediction in patients with mild adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Methods. A comprehensive search was conducted by three independent investigators on MEDLINE, PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library. Search terms included “adolescent idiopathic scoliosis”,“3D”, and “progression”. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were carefully defined to include clinical studies. Risk of bias was assessed with the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool (QUIPS) and Appraisal tool for Cross-Sectional Studies (AXIS), and level of evidence for each predictor was rated with the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations (GRADE) approach. In all, 915 publications were identified, with 377 articles subjected to full-text screening; overall, 31 articles were included. Results. Torsion index (TI) and apical vertebral rotation (AVR) were identified as accurate predictors of curve progression in early visits. Initial TI > 3.7° and AVR > 5.8° were predictive of curve progression. Thoracic hypokyphosis was inconsistently observed in progressive curves with weak evidence. While sagittal wedging was observed in mild curves, there is insufficient evidence for its correlation with curve progression. In curves with initial Cobb angle < 25°, Cobb angle was a poor predictor for future curve progression. Prediction accuracy was improved by incorporating serial reconstructions in stepwise layers. However, a lack of post-hoc analysis was identified in studies involving geometrical models. Conclusion. For patients with mild curves, TI and AVR were identified as predictors of curve progression, with TI > 3.7° and AVR > 5.8° found to be important thresholds. Cobb angle acts as a poor predictor in mild curves, and more investigations are required to assess thoracic kyphosis and wedging as predictors. Cumulative reconstruction of radiographs improves prediction accuracy. Comprehensive analysis between progressive and non-progressive curves is recommended to extract meaningful thresholds for clinical prognostication. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(3):243–251