Follow-up radiographs are usually used as the reference standard for the diagnosis of suspected scaphoid fractures. However, these are prone to errors in interpretation. We performed a meta-analysis of 30 clinical studies on the diagnosis of suspected scaphoid fractures, in which agreement data between any of follow-up radiographs, bone scintigraphy, magnetic resonance (MR) imaging, or CT could be obtained, and combined this with latent class analysis to infer the accuracy of these tests on the diagnosis of suspected scaphoid fractures in the absence of an established standard. The estimated sensitivity and specificity were respectively 91.1% and 99.8% for follow-up radiographs, 97.8% and 93.5% for bone scintigraphy, 97.7% and 99.8% for MRI, and 85.2% and 99.5% for CT. The results were generally robust in multiple sensitivity analyses. There was large between-study heterogeneity for the sensitivity of follow-up radiographs and CT, and imprecision about their sensitivity estimates. If we acknowledge the lack of a reference standard for diagnosing suspected scaphoid fractures, MRI is the most accurate test; follow-up radiographs and CT may be less sensitive, and bone scintigraphy less specific

A suspected fracture of the scaphoid remains difficult to manage despite advances in knowledge and imaging methods. Immobilisation and restriction of activities in a young and active patient must be balanced against the risks of nonunion associated with an undiagnosed and undertreated fracture of the scaphoid.

The assessment of diagnostic tests for a suspected fracture of the scaphoid must take into account two important factors. First, the prevalence of true fractures among suspected fractures is low, which greatly reduces the probability that a positive test will correspond with a true fracture, as false positives are nearly as common as true positives. This situation is accounted for by Bayesian statistics. Secondly, there is no agreed reference standard for a true fracture, which necessitates the need for an alternative method of calculating diagnostic performance characteristics, based upon a statistical method which identifies clinical factors tending to associate (latent classes) in patients with a high probability of fracture.

The most successful diagnostic test to date is MRI, but in low-prevalence situations the positive predictive value of MRI is only 88%, and new data have documented the potential for false positive scans. The best strategy for improving the diagnosis of true fractures among suspected fractures of the scaphoid may well be to develop a clinical prediction rule incorporating a set of demographic and clinical factors which together increase the pre-test probability of a fracture of the scaphoid, in addition to developing increasingly sophisticated radiological tests.