Aims. This study identifies early risk factors for symptomatic nonunion of displaced midshaft fractures of the clavicle that aid identification of an at risk group who may benefit from surgery. . Methods . We performed a retrospective study of 88 patients aged between 16 and 60 years that were managed non-operatively. . Results . The rate of symptomatic nonunion requiring surgery was 14% (n = 13). Smoking (odds ratio (OR) 40.76, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.38 to 120.30) and the six week Disabilities of the Arm Shoulder and Hand (DASH) score (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.22, for each point increase) were independent predictors of nonunion. A six week DASH score of 35 or more was identified as a threshold value to predict nonunion using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Smoking and the threshold value in the DASH and were additive risk factors for nonunion, when neither were present the risk of nonunion was 2%, if one or the other were present the nonunion rate was between 17% to 20%, and if both were present the rate increased to 44%. Discussion. Patients with either of these risk factors, which include approximately half of all patients sustaining displaced midshaft fractures of the clavicle, are at an increased risk of developing a symptomatic non-union. Take home message: Smoking and failure of functional return at six weeks are significant predictors of nonunion of the midshaft of the clavicle. Such patients warrant further investigation as to whether they would benefit from early surgical fixation in order to avoid the morbidity of a nonunion. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:125–30

Several studies have reported the rate of post-operative mortality after the surgical treatment of a fracture of the hip, but few data are available regarding the delayed morbidity. In this prospective study, we identified 568 patients who underwent surgery for a fracture of the hip and who were followed for one year. Multivariate analysis was carried out to identify possible predictors of mortality and morbidity. The 30-day, four-month and one-year rates of mortality were 4.3%, 11.4%, and 18.8%, respectively. General complications and pre-operative comorbidities represented the basic predictors of mortality at any time interval (p < 0.01). In-hospital, four-month and one-year general complications occurred in 29.4%, 18.6% and 6.7% of patients, respectively. After adjusting for confounding variables, comorbidities and poor cognitive status determined the likelihood of early and delayed general complications, respectively (p < 0.001). Operative delay was the main predictor of the length of hospital stay (p < 0.001) and was directly related to in-hospital (p = 0.017) and four-month complications (p = 0.008). Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:383–90

Aims. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between fracture displacement and survivorship of the native hip joint without conversion to a total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to determine predictors for conversion to THA in patients treated nonoperatively for acetabular fractures. Methods. A multicentre cross-sectional study was performed in 170 patients who were treated nonoperatively for an acetabular fracture in three level 1 trauma centres. Using the post-injury diagnostic CT scan, the maximum gap and step-off values in the weightbearing dome were digitally measured by two trauma surgeons. Native hip survival was reported using Kaplan-Meier curves. Predictors for conversion to THA were determined using Cox regression analysis. Results. Of 170 patients, 22 (13%) subsequently received a THA. Native hip survival in patients with a step-off ≤ 2 mm, > 2 to 4 mm, or > 4 mm differed at five-year follow-up (respectively: 94% vs 70% vs 74%). Native hip survival in patients with a gap ≤ 2 mm, > 2 to 4 mm, or > 4 mm differed at five-year follow-up (respectively: 100% vs 84% vs 78%). Step-off displacement > 2 mm (> 2 to 4 mm hazard ratio (HR) 4.9, > 4 mm HR 5.6) and age > 60 years (HR 2.9) were independent predictors for conversion to THA at follow-up. Conclusion. Patients with minimally displaced acetabular fractures who opt for nonoperative fracture treatment may be informed that fracture displacement (e.g. gap and step-off) up to 2 mm, as measured on CT images, results in limited risk on conversion to THA. Step-off ≥ 2 mm and age > 60 years are predictors for conversion to THA and can be helpful in the shared decision-making process. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(9):1020–1029

Aims. We assessed the value of the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) in the prediction of adverse outcome after hip fracture. Methods. Of 1,577 consecutive patients aged > 65 years with a fragility hip fracture admitted to one institution, for whom there were complete data, 1,255 (72%) were studied. Clinicians assigned CFS scores on admission. Audit personnel routinely prospectively completed the Standardised Audit of Hip Fracture in Europe form, including the following outcomes: 30-day survival; in-hospital complications; length of acute hospital stay; and new institutionalization. The relationship between the CFS scores and outcomes was examined graphically and the visual interpretations were tested statistically. The predictive values of the CFS and Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) to predict 30-day mortality were compared using receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) analysis. Results. Significant non-linear associations between CFS and outcomes were observed. Risk of death within 30 days rose linearly for CFS 1 to 5, but plateaued for CFS > 5. The incidence of complications and length of stay rose linearly for CFS 1 to 4, but plateaued for CFS > 4. In contrast, the risk of new institutionalization rose linearly for CFS 1 to 8. The AUCs for 30-day mortality for the CFS and NHFS were very similar: CFS AUC 0.63 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.69) and NHFS AUC 0.63 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.69). Conclusion. Use of the CFS may provide useful information on outcomes for fitter patients presenting with hip fracture, but completion of the CFS by the admitting orthopaedic team does not appear successful in distinguishing between higher CFS categories, which define patients with frailty. This makes a strong case for the role of the orthogeriatrician in the early assessment of these patients. Further work is needed to understand why patients assessed as being of mild, moderate, and severe frailty do not result in different outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):980–986

Aims. Open fractures of the tibia are a heterogeneous group of injuries that can present a number of challenges to the treating surgeon. Consequently, few surgeons can reliably advise patients and relatives about the expected outcomes. The aim of this study was to determine whether these outcomes are predictable by using the Ganga Hospital Score (GHS). This has been shown to be a useful method of scoring open injuries to inform wound management and decide between limb salvage and amputation. Methods. We collected data on 182 consecutive patients with a type II, IIIA, or IIIB open fracture of the tibia who presented to our hospital between July and December 2016. For the purposes of the study, the patients were jointly treated by experienced consultant orthopaedic and plastic surgeons who determined the type of treatment. Separately, the study team (SP, HS, AD, JD) independently calculated the GHS and prospectively collected data on six outcomes for each patient. These included time to bony union, number of admissions, length of hospital stay, total length of treatment, final functional score, and number of operations. Spearman’s correlation was used to compare GHS with each outcome. Forward stepwise linear regression was used to generate predictive models based on components of the GHS. Five-fold cross-validation was used to prevent models from over-fitting. Results. The mean follow-up was 11.4 months (3 to 31). The mean time to union was 9.7 months (3 to 21), the mean number of operations was 2.8 (1 to 11), the mean time in hospital was 17.7 days (5 to 84), the mean length of treatment was 92.7 days (5 to 730), the mean number of admissions was 1.7 (1 to 6), and the mean functional score (Lower Extremity Functional Score (LEFS)) was 60.13 (33 to 80). There was a significant correlation between the GHS and each of the outcome measures. A predictive model was generated from which the GHS could be used to predict the various outcome measures. Conclusion. The GHS can be used to predict the outcome of patients who present with an open fracture of the tibia. Our model generates a numerical value for each outcome measure that can be used in clinical practice to inform the treating team and to advise patients. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(1):26–32

Aims. The primary aim of this study was to develop a reliable, effective radiological score to assess the healing of humeral shaft fractures, the Radiographic Union Score for HUmeral fractures (RUSHU). The secondary aim was to assess whether the six-week RUSHU was predictive of nonunion at six months after the injury. Patients and Methods. Initially, 20 patients with radiographs six weeks following a humeral shaft fracture were selected at random from a trauma database and scored by three observers, based on the Radiographic Union Scale for Tibial fractures system. After refinement of the RUSHU criteria, a second group of 60 patients with radiographs six weeks after injury, 40 with fractures that united and 20 with fractures that developed nonunion, were scored by two blinded observers. Results. After refinement, the interobserver intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was 0.79 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67 to 0.87), indicating substantial agreement. At six weeks after injury, patients whose fractures united had a significantly higher median score than those who developed nonunion (10 vs 7; p < 0.001). A receiver operating characteristic curve determined that a RUSHU cut-off of < 8 was predictive of nonunion (area under the curve = 0.84, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.94). The sensitivity was 75% and specificity 80% with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 65% and a negative predictive value of 86%. Patients with a RUSHU < 8 (n = 23) were more likely to develop nonunion than those with a RUSHU ≥ 8 (n = 37, odds ratio 12.0, 95% CI 3.4 to 42.9). Based on a PPV of 65%, if all patients with a RUSHU < 8 underwent fixation, the number of procedures needed to avoid one nonunion would be 1.5. Conclusion. The RUSHU is reliable and effective in identifying patients at risk of nonunion of a humeral shaft fracture at six weeks after injury. This tool requires external validation but could potentially reduce the morbidity associated with delayed treatment of an established nonunion. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1300–1306

Aims. To identify the prevalence of neuropathic pain after lower limb fracture surgery, assess associations with pain severity, quality of life and disability, and determine baseline predictors of chronic neuropathic pain at three and at six months post-injury. Methods. Secondary analysis of a UK multicentre randomized controlled trial (Wound Healing in Surgery for Trauma; WHiST) dataset including adults aged 16 years or over following surgery for lower limb major trauma. The trial recruited 1,547 participants from 24 trauma centres. Neuropathic pain was measured at three and six months using the Doleur Neuropathique Questionnaire (DN4); 701 participants provided a DN4 score at three months and 781 at six months. Overall, 933 participants provided DN4 for at least one time point. Physical disability (Disability Rating Index (DRI) 0 to 100) and health-related quality-of-life (EuroQol five-dimension five-level; EQ-5D-5L) were measured. Candidate predictors of neuropathic pain included sex, age, BMI, injury mechanism, concurrent injury, diabetes, smoking, alcohol, analgaesia use pre-injury, index surgery location, fixation type, Injury Severity Score, open injury, and wound care. Results. The median age of the participants was 51 years (interquartile range 35 to 64). At three and six months post-injury respectively, 32% (222/702) and 30% (234/787) had neuropathic pain, 56% (396/702) and 53% (413/787) had chronic pain without neuropathic characteristics, and the remainder were pain-free. Pain severity was higher among those with neuropathic pain. Linear regression analyses found that those with neuropathic pain at six months post-injury had more physical disability (DRI adjusted mean difference 11.49 (95% confidence interval (CI) 7.84 to 15.14; p < 0.001) and poorer quality of life (EQ-5D utility -0.15 (95% CI -0.19 to -0.11); p < 0.001) compared to those without neuropathic characteristics. Logistic regression identified that prognostic factors of younger age, current smoker, below knee fracture, concurrent injuries, and regular analgaesia pre-injury were associated with higher odds of post-injury neuropathic pain. Conclusion. Pain with neuropathic characteristics is common after lower limb fracture surgery and persists to six months post-injury. Persistent neuropathic pain is associated with substantially poorer recovery. Further attention to identify neuropathic pain post-lower limb injury, predicting patients at risk, and targeting interventions, is indicated. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(6):1047–1054

Aims. The aim of this study was to assess whether it is possible to predict the mortality, and the extent and time of neurological recovery from the time of the onset of symptoms and MRI grade, in patients with the cerebral fat embolism syndrome (CFES). This has not previously been investigated. Methods. The study included 34 patients who were diagnosed with CFES following trauma between 2012 and 2018. The clinical diagnosis was confirmed and the severity graded by MRI. We investigated the rate of mortality, the time and extent of neurological recovery, the time between the injury and the onset of symptoms, the clinical severity of the condition, and the MRI grade. All patients were male with a mean age of 29.7 years (18 to 70). The mean follow-up was 4.15 years (2 to 8), with neurological recovery being assessed by the Glasgow Outcome Scale and the Mini-Mental State Examination. Results. In all, seven who had early-onset CFES (< 24 hours), and a severe Takahashi grade on MRI, died. There was a significant association between the time of onset of neurological signs and mortality (p = 0.035). Mortality was also significantly associated with a severe Takahashi grade (p < 0.001). Among the 27 surviving patients, 26 (96.3%) recovered completely. One (3.7%) had a cognitive deficit. The mean time to recovery was 4.7 weeks (2 to 13), with late recovery aftereight eight weeks being recorded in three patients. Conclusion. There was a significantly increased rate of mortality in patients with CFES who had an early onset of symptoms and a severe grade on MRI. Complete neurological recovery can be expected in most patients with CFES who survive. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(1):142–149

Aims

The aims of this study were to identify means to quantify coronal plane displacement associated with distal radius fractures (DRFs), and to understand their relationship to radial inclination (RI).

This paper investigates whether cortical comminution and intra-articular involvement can predict displacement in distal radius fractures by using a classification that includes volar comminution as a separate parameter. A prospective multicentre study involving non-operative treatment of distal radius fractures in 387 patients aged between 15 and 74 years (398 fractures) was conducted. The presence of cortical comminution and intra-articular involvement according to the Buttazzoni classification is described. Minimally displaced fractures were treated with immobilisation in a cast while displaced fractures underwent closed reduction with subsequent immobilisation. Radiographs were obtained after reduction, at 10 to 14 days and after union. The outcome measure was re-displacement or union. In fractures with volar comminution (Buttazzoni type 4), 96% (53 of 55) displaced. In intra-articular fractures without volar comminution (Buttazzoni 3), 72% (84 of 117) displaced. In extra-articular fractures with isolated dorsal comminution (Buttazzoni 2), 73% (106 of 145) displaced while in non-comminuted fractures (Buttazzoni 1), 16 % (13 of 81 ) displaced. A total of 32% (53 of 165) of initially minimally displaced fractures later displaced. All of the initially displaced volarly comminuted fractures re-displaced. Displacement occurred in 31% (63 of 205) of fractures that were still in good alignment after 10 to 14 days. . Regression analysis showed that volar and dorsal comminution predicted later displacement, while intra-articular involvement did not predict displacement. Volar comminution was the strongest predictor of displacement. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014;96-B:978–83

In the management of a pelvic fracture prompt recognition of an unstable fracture pattern is important in reducing mortality and morbidity. It is believed that a fracture of the transverse process of L5 is a predictor of pelvic fracture instability. However, there is little evidence in the literature to support this view. The aim of this study was to determine whether a fracture of the transverse process of L5 is a reliable predictor of pelvic fracture instability. We reviewed our hospital trauma database and identified 80 patients who sustained a pelvic fracture between 2006 and 2010. There were 32 women and 48 men with a mean age of 40 years (10 to 96). Most patients were injured in a road traffic accident or as a result of a fall from a height. A total of 41 patients (51%) had associated injuries. The pelvic fractures were categorised according to the Burgess and Young classification. There were 45 stable and 35 unstable fractures. An associated fracture of the transverse process of L5 was present in 17 patients; 14 (40%) of whom had an unstable fracture pattern. The odds ratio for an unstable fracture of the pelvis in the presence of a fracture of the transverse process of L5 was 9.3 and the relative risk was 2.5. A fracture of the transverse process of L5 in the presence of a pelvic fracture is associated with an increased risk of instability of the pelvic fracture. Its presence should alert the attending staff to this possibility

Limb-injury severity scores are designed to assess orthopaedic and vascular injuries. In Gustilo type-IIIA and type-IIIB injuries they have poor sensitivity and specificity to predict salvage or outcome. We have designed a trauma score to grade the severity of injury to the covering tissues, the bones and the functional tissues, grading the three components from one to five. Seven comorbid conditions known to influence the management and prognosis have been given a score of two each. The score was validated in 109 consecutive open injuries of the tibia, 42 type-IIIA and 67 type-IIIB. The total score was used to assess the possibilities of salvage and the outcome was measured by dividing the injuries into four groups according to their scores as follows: group I scored less than 5, group II 6 to 10, group III 11 to 15 and group IV 16 or more. A score of 14 to indicate amputation had the highest sensitivity and specificity. Our trauma score compared favourably with the Mangled Extremity Severity score in sensitivity (98% and 99%), specificity (100% and 17%), positive predictive value (100% and 97.5%) and negative predictive value (70% and 50%), respectively. A receiver-operating characteristic curve constructed for 67 type-IIIB injuries to assess the efficiency of the scores to predict salvage, showed that the area under the curve for this score was better (0.988 (± 0.013 . sem. )) than the Mangled Extremity Severity score (0.938 (± 0.039 . sem. )). All limbs in group IV and one in group III underwent amputation. Of the salvaged limbs, there was a significant difference in the three groups for the requirement of a flap for wound cover, the time to union, the number of surgical procedures required, the total days as an in-patient and the incidence of deep infection (p < 0.001 for all). The individual scores for covering and functional tissues were also found to offer specific guidelines in the management of these complex injuries. The scoring system was found to be simple in application and reliable in prognosis for both limb-salvage and outcome measures in type-IIIA and type-IIIB open injuries of the tibia

The aim of this study was to examine the rates and potential risk factors for 28-day re-admission following a fracture of the hip at a high-volume tertiary care hospital. We retrospectively reviewed 467 consecutive patients with a fracture of the hip treated in the course of one year. Causes and risk factors for unplanned 28-day re-admissions were examined using univariate and multivariate analysis, including the difference in one-year mortality. A total of 55 patients (11.8%) were re-admitted within 28 days of discharge. The most common causes were pneumonia in 15 patients (27.3%), dehydration and renal dysfunction in ten (18.2%) and deteriorating mobility in ten (18.2%). A moderate correlation was found between chest infection during the initial admission and subsequent re-admission with pneumonia (r = 0.44, p < 0.001). A significantly higher mortality rate at one year was seen in the re-admission group (41.8% (23 of 55) vs 18.7% (77 of 412), p < 0.001). Logistic regression analysis identified advancing age, admission source, and the comorbidities of diabetes and neurological disorders as the strongest predictors for re-admission. Early re-admission following hip fracture surgery is predominantly due to medical causes and is associated with higher one-year mortality. The risk factors for re-admission can have implications for performance-based pay initiatives in the NHS. Multidisciplinary management in reducing post-operative active clinical problems may reduce early re-admission

Aims

Using tibial shaft fracture participants from a large, multicentre randomized controlled trial, we investigated if patient and surgical factors were associated with health-related quality of life (HRQoL) at one year post-surgery.

There is no absolute method of evaluating healing of a fracture of the tibial shaft. In this study we sought to validate a new clinical method based on the systematic observation of gait, first by assessing the degree of agreement between three independent observers regarding the gait score for a given patient, and secondly by determining how such a score might predict healing of a fracture. We used a method of evaluating gait to assess 33 patients (29 men and four women, with a mean age of 29 years (15 to 62)) who had sustained an isolated fracture of the tibial shaft and had been treated with a locked intramedullary nail. There were 15 closed and 18 open fractures (three Gustilo and Anderson grade I, seven grade II, seven grade IIIA and one grade IIIB). Assessment was carried out three and six months post-operatively using videos taken with a digital camera. Gait was graded on a scale ranging from 1 (extreme difficulty) to 4 (normal gait). Bivariate analysis included analysis of variance to determine whether the gait score statistically correlated with previously validated and standardised scores of clinical status and radiological evidence of union. An association was found between the pattern of gait and all the other variables. Improvement in gait was associated with the absence of pain on weight-bearing, reduced tenderness over the fracture, a higher Radiographic Union Scale in Tibial Fractures score, and improved functional status, measured using the Brazilian version of the Short Musculoskeletal Function Assessment questionnaire (all p < 0.001). Although further study is needed, the analysis of gait in this way may prove to be a useful clinical tool

The capacity for physiotherapy to improve the outcome after fracture of the distal radius is unproven. We carried out a randomised controlled trial on 96 patients, comparing conventional physiotherapy with a regime of home exercises. The function of the upper limb was assessed at the time of removal of the plaster cast and at three and six months after injury. Factors which may predict poor outcome in these patients were sought. Grip strength and hand function did not significantly differ between the two groups. Flexion and extension of the wrist were the only movements to improve with physiotherapy at six months (p = 0.001). Predictors of poor functional outcome were malunion and impaired function before the fracture. These patients presented with pain, decreased rotation of the forearm and low functional scores at six weeks. Our study has shown that home exercises are adequate rehabilitation after uncomplicated fracture of the distal radius, and routine referral for a course of physiotherapy should be discouraged. The role of physiotherapy in patients at high risk of a poor outcome requires further investigation

Aims

We aimed to determine the effect of dementia and Parkinson’s disease on one, three and 12-month mortality following surgery for fracture of the hip in elderly patients from an Asian population.

Our aim was to determine the effect of the initial pattern of fracture and the displacement of fragments on the outcome of proximal humeral fractures treated conservatively. We followed 93 consecutive patients prospectively for one year. Final movement and strength were compared with those of the contralateral side. The final American Shoulder and Elbow Society score and the Disabilities of Arm, Shoulder and Hand and Short-Form 36 questionnaires were compared with those provided by the patient on the day of the injury. Radiographs and CT scans with three-dimensional reconstruction were obtained in all patients. The pattern of the fracture and the displacement of individual fragments were analysed and correlated with the final outcome. There were two cases of nonunion and six of avascular necrosis. The majority of the fractures (84 patients; 90%) followed one of the following four patterns: posteromedial (varus) impaction in 50 patients (54%), lateral (valgus) impaction in 13 (14%), isolated greater tuberosity in 15 (16%), and anteromedial impaction fracture in six (6%). Head orientation, impaction of the surgical neck and displacement of the tuberosity correlated strongly with the outcome.

In fractures with posteromedial impaction, a poor outcome was noted as the articular surface displaced inferiorly increasing its distance from the acromion. A poorer outcome was noted as a fractured greater tuberosity displaced medially overlapping with the posterior articular surface. Lateral impaction fractures had a worse outcome than other patterns of fracture.

Aims. Several previously identified patient-, injury-, and treatment-related factors are associated with the development of nonunion in distal femur fractures. However, the predictive value of these factors is not well defined. We aimed to assess the predictive ability of previously identified risk factors in the development of nonunion leading to secondary surgery in distal femur fractures. Methods. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients with traumatic distal femur fracture treated with lateral locking plate between 2009 and 2018. The patients who underwent secondary surgery due to fracture healing problem or plate failure were considered having nonunion. Background knowledge of risk factors of distal femur fracture nonunion based on previous literature was used to form an initial set of variables. A logistic regression model was used with previously identified patient- and injury-related variables (age, sex, BMI, diabetes, smoking, periprosthetic fracture, open fracture, trauma energy, fracture zone length, fracture comminution, medial side comminution) in the first analysis and with treatment-related variables (different surgeon-controlled factors, e.g. plate length, screw placement, and proximal fixation) in the second analysis to predict the nonunion leading to secondary surgery in distal femur fractures. Results. We were able to include 299 fractures in 291 patients. Altogether, 31/299 fractures (10%) developed nonunion. In the first analysis, pseudo-R. 2. was 0.27 and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.81. BMI was the most important variable in the prediction. In the second analysis, pseudo-R. 2. was 0.06 and AUC was 0.67. Plate length was the most important variable in the prediction. Conclusion. The model including patient- and injury-related factors had moderate fit and predictive ability in the prediction of distal femur fracture nonunion leading to secondary surgery. BMI was the most important variable in prediction of nonunion. Surgeon-controlled factors had a minor role in prediction of nonunion. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(8):584–593

Aims. Though most humeral shaft fractures heal nonoperatively, up to one-third may lead to nonunion with inferior outcomes. The Radiographic Union Score for HUmeral Fractures (RUSHU) was created to identify high-risk patients for nonunion. Our study evaluated the RUSHU’s prognostic performance at six and 12 weeks in discriminating nonunion within a significantly larger cohort than before. Methods. Our study included 226 nonoperatively treated humeral shaft fractures. We evaluated the interobserver reliability and intraobserver reproducibility of RUSHU scoring using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). Additionally, we determined the optimal cut-off thresholds for predicting nonunion using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) method. Results. The RUSHU demonstrated good interobserver reliability with an ICC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.83) at six weeks and 0.77 (95% CI 0.71 to 0.82) at 12 weeks. Intraobserver reproducibility was good or excellent for all analyses. Area under the curve in the ROC analysis was 0.83 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.88) at six weeks and 0.89 (95% CI 0.84 to 0.93) at 12 weeks, indicating excellent discrimination. The optimal cut-off values for predicting nonunion were ≤ eight points at six weeks and ≤ nine points at 12 weeks, providing the best specificity-sensitivity trade-off. Conclusion. The RUSHU proves to be a reliable and reproducible radiological scoring system that aids in identifying patients at risk of nonunion at both six and 12 weeks post-injury during non-surgical treatment of humeral shaft fractures. The statistically optimal cut-off values for predicting nonunion are ≤ eight at six weeks and ≤ nine points at 12 weeks post-injury

Aims. Current levels of hip fracture morbidity contribute greatly to the overall burden on health and social care services. Given the anticipated ageing of the population over the coming decade, there is potential for this burden to increase further, although the exact scale of impact has not been identified in contemporary literature. We therefore set out to predict the future incidence of hip fracture and help inform appropriate service provision to maintain an adequate standard of care. Methods. Historical data from the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit (2017 to 2021) were used to identify monthly incidence rates. Established time series forecasting techniques (Exponential Smoothing and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) were then used to predict the annual number of hip fractures from 2022 to 2029, including adjustment for predicted changes in national population demographics. Predicted differences in service-level outcomes (length of stay and discharge destination) were analyzed, including the associated financial cost of any changes. Results. Between 2017 and 2021, the number of annual hip fractures increased from 6,675 to 7,797 (15%), with a rise in incidence from 313 to 350 per 100,000 (11%) for the at-risk population. By 2029, a combined average projection forecast the annual number of hip fractures at 10,311, with an incidence rate of 463 per 100,000, representing a 32% increase from 2021. Based upon these projections, assuming discharge rates remain constant, the total overall length of hospital stay following hip fracture in Scotland will increase by 60,699 days per annum, incurring an additional cost of at least £25 million per year. Approximately five more acute hip fracture beds may be required per hospital to accommodate this increased activity. Conclusion. Projection modelling demonstrates that hip fracture burden and incidence will increase substantially by 2029, driven by an ageing population, with substantial implications for health and social care services. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(1):62–68

Aims. Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a common complication after elbow trauma and can cause severe upper limb disability. Although multiple prognostic factors have been reported to be associated with the development of post-traumatic HO, no model has yet been able to combine these predictors more succinctly to convey prognostic information and medical measures to patients. Therefore, this study aimed to identify prognostic factors leading to the formation of HO after surgery for elbow trauma, and to establish and validate a nomogram to predict the probability of HO formation in such particular injuries. Methods. This multicentre case-control study comprised 200 patients with post-traumatic elbow HO and 229 patients who had elbow trauma but without HO formation between July 2019 and December 2020. Features possibly associated with HO formation were obtained. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize feature selection. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build the new nomogram: the Shanghai post-Traumatic Elbow Heterotopic Ossification Prediction model (STEHOP). STEHOP was validated by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. Male sex, obesity, open wound, dislocations, late definitive surgical treatment, and lack of use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were identified as adverse predictors and incorporated to construct the STEHOP model. It displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.84). A high C-index value of 0.77 could still be reached in the internal validation. The calibration plot showed good agreement between nomogram prediction and observed outcomes. Conclusion. The newly developed STEHOP model is a valid and convenient instrument to predict HO formation after surgery for elbow trauma. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding treatment expectations and therapeutic choices. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):963–971

Aims. The aim of this study was to describe the demographic details of patients who sustain a femoral periprosthetic fracture (PPF), the epidemiology of PPFs, PPF characteristics, and the predictors of PPF types in the UK population. Methods. This is a multicentre retrospective cohort study including adult patients presenting to hospital with a new PPF between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018. Data collected included: patient characteristics, comorbidities, anticoagulant use, social circumstances, level of mobility, fracture characteristics, Unified Classification System (UCS) type, and details of the original implant. Descriptive analysis by fracture location was performed, and predictors of PPF type were assessed using mixed-effects logistic regression models. Results. In total, 720 femoral PPFs from 27 NHS sites were included. PPF patients were typically elderly (mean 79.9 years (SD 10.6)), female (n = 455; 63.2%), had at least one comorbidity (n = 670; 93.1%), and were reliant on walking aids or bed-/chair-bound prior to admission (n = 419; 61.7%). The study population included 539 (74.9%) hip PPFs, 151 (21.0%) knee PPFs, and 30 (4.2%) dividing type PPFs. For hip (n = 407; 75.5%) and knee (n = 88; 58.3%) arthroplasty UCS B type fractures were most common. Overall, 556 (86.2%) were treated in the presenting hospital and 89 (13.8%) required transfer for treatment. Female sex was the only significant predictor of fracture type (A/B1/C type versus B2/B3) for femoral hip PPFs (odds ratio 0.61 (95% confidence interval 0.41 to 0.91); p = 0.014). Sex, residence type, primary versus revision implant PPF, implant fixation, and time between arthroplasty and PPF were not found to predict fracture type for hip PPFs. Conclusion. This multicentre analysis describes patient and injury factors for patients presenting with femoral PPFs to centres across the UK. These patients are generally elderly and frail, comparable to those sustaining a hip fracture. These data can be useful in planning future services and clinical trials. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):987–996

Aims. Frailty greatly increases the risk of adverse outcome of trauma in older people. Frailty detection tools appear to be unsuitable for use in traumatically injured older patients. We therefore aimed to develop a method for detecting frailty in older people sustaining trauma using routinely collected clinical data. Methods. We analyzed prospectively collected registry data from 2,108 patients aged ≥ 65 years who were admitted to a single major trauma centre over five years (1 October 2015 to 31 July 2020). We divided the sample equally into two, creating derivation and validation samples. In the derivation sample, we performed univariate analyses followed by multivariate regression, starting with 27 clinical variables in the registry to predict Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS; range 1 to 9) scores. Bland-Altman analyses were performed in the validation cohort to evaluate any biases between the Nottingham Trauma Frailty Index (NTFI) and the CFS. Results. In the derivation cohort, five of the 27 variables were strongly predictive of the CFS (regression coefficient B = 6.383 (95% confidence interval 5.03 to 7.74), p < 0.001): age, Abbreviated Mental Test score, admission haemoglobin concentration (g/l), pre-admission mobility (needs assistance or not), and mechanism of injury (falls from standing height). In the validation cohort, there was strong agreement between the NTFI and the CFS (mean difference 0.02) with no apparent systematic bias. Conclusion. We have developed a clinically applicable tool using easily and routinely measured physiological and functional parameters, which clinicians and researchers can use to guide patient care and to stratify the analysis of quality improvement and research projects. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(4):412–418

Aims. This study aimed to describe practice variation in the use of total hip arthroplasty (THA) for older patients with femoral neck fracture and to determine the association between patient, surgeon, and institution factors and treatment with THA. Methods. We performed a cross-sectional analysis of 49,597 patients aged 60 years and older from Ontario, Canada, who underwent hemiarthroplasty or THA for femoral neck fracture between 2002 and 2017. This population-based study used routinely collected healthcare databases linked through ICES (formerly known as the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences). Multilevel logistic regression modelling was used to quantify the association between patient, surgeon, and institution-level variables and whether patients were treated with THA. Variance partition coefficient and median odds ratios were used to estimate the variation attributable to higher-level variables and the magnitude of effect of higher-level variables, respectively. Results. Over the study period, 9.4% of patients (n = 4,638) were treated with THA. Patient factors associated with higher likelihood of treatment by THA included: younger age, male sex, and diagnosis with rheumatoid arthritis. Long-term care residence, use of home care services prior to hip fracture, diagnosis of dementia, higher comorbidity burden, and the most marginalized group were negatively associated with treatment by THA. Treating surgeon and institution accounted for 54.2% and 17.8% of the total variation in treatment with THA, respectively. Surgeon volume of THA procedures in the 365 days prior to surgery was the strongest higher-level predictor of treatment with THA. Specific treating surgeons and institutions still accounted for significant proportions of the variability in treatment with THA (40.3% and 19.5% of total observed variation, respectively) after controlling for available patient, surgeon, and institution-level variables. Conclusion. The strongest predictors for treatment of patients with femoral neck fracture with THA were patient age, treating surgeon, and treating institution. This practice variation highlights differential access to care for patients. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(2):180–189

Aims. The aim of this study was to describe the management and associated outcomes of patients sustaining a femoral hip periprosthetic fracture (PPF) in the UK population. Methods. This was a multicentre retrospective cohort study including adult patients who presented to 27 NHS hospitals with 539 new PPFs between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018. Data collected included: management strategy (operative and nonoperative), length of stay, discharge destination, and details of post-treatment outcomes (reoperation, readmission, and 30-day and 12-month mortality). Descriptive analysis by fracture type was performed, and predictors of PPF management and outcomes were assessed using mixed-effects logistic regression. Results. In all, 417 fractures (77%) were managed operatively and 122 (23%) conservatively. The median time to surgery was four days (interquartile range (IQR) 2 to 7). Of those undergoing surgery, 246 (59%) underwent revision and/or fixation and 169 (41%) fixation alone. The surgical strategy used differed by Unified Classification System for PPF type, with the highest rate of revision in B2/B3 fractures (both 77%, 176/228 and 24/31, respectively) and the highest rate of fixation alone in B1- (55/78; 71%) and C-type (49/65; 75%) fractures. Cemented stem fixation (odds ratio (OR) 2.66 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.42 to 4.99); p = 0.002) and B2/B3 fracture type (OR 7.56 (95% CI 4.14 to 13.78); p < 0.001) were predictors of operative management. The median length of stay was 15 days (IQR 9 to 23), 12-month reoperation rate was 5.6% (n = 30), and 30-day readmission rate was 8.4% (n = 45). The 30-day and 12-month mortality rates were 5.2% (n = 28) and 21.0% (n = 113). Nonoperative treatment, older age, male sex, admission from residential or nursing care, and sustaining the PPF around a revision prosthesis were significant predictors of an increased 12-month mortality. Conclusion. Femoral hip PPFs have mortality, reoperation, and readmission rates comparable with hip fracture patients. However, they have a longer wait for surgery, and surgical treatment is more complex. There is a need to create a national framework for data collection for this heterogeneous group of patients in order to understand the outcomes of different approaches to treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):997–1008

Aims. The modified Radiological Union Scale for Tibia (mRUST) fractures score was developed in order to assess progress to union and define a numerical assessment of fracture healing of metadiaphyseal fractures. This score has been shown to be valuable in predicting radiological union; however, there is no information on the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of this index for various cut-off scores. The aim of this study is to evaluate sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and cut-off points of the mRUST score for the diagnosis of metadiaphyseal fractures healing. Methods. A cohort of 146 distal femur fractures were retrospectively identified at our institution. After excluding AO/OTA type B fractures, nonunions, follow-up less than 12 weeks, and patients aged less than 16 years, 104 sets of radiographs were included for analysis. Anteroposterior and lateral femur radiographs at six weeks, 12 weeks, 24 weeks, and final follow-up were separately scored by three surgeons using the mRUST score. The sensitivity and specificity of mean mRUST score were calculated using clinical and further radiological findings as a gold standard for ultimate fracture healing. A receiver operating characteristic curve was also performed to determine the cut-off points at each time point. Results. The mean mRUST score of ten at 24 weeks revealed a 91.9% sensitivity, 100% specificity, and 92.6% accuracy of predicting ultimate fracture healing. A cut-off point of 13 points revealed 41.9% sensitivity, 100% specificity, and 46.9% accuracy at the same time point. Conclusion. The mRUST score of ten points at 24 weeks can be used as a viable screening method with the highest sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy for healing of metadiaphyseal femur fractures. However, the cut-off point of 13 increases the specificity to 100%, but decreases sensitivity. Furthermore, the mRUST score should not be used at six weeks, as results show an inability to accurately predict eventual fracture healing at this time point. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(10):796–805

Aims. It is unclear whether acute plate fixation facilitates earlier return of normal shoulder function following a displaced mid-shaft clavicular fracture compared with nonoperative management when union occurs. The primary aim of this study was to establish whether acute plate fixation was associated with a greater return of normal shoulder function when compared with nonoperative management in patients who unite their fractures. The secondary aim was to investigate whether there were identifiable predictors associated with return of normal shoulder function in patients who achieve union with nonoperative management. Methods. Patient data from a randomized controlled trial were used to compare acute plate fixation with nonoperative management of united fractures. Return of shoulder function was based on the age- and sex-matched Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) scores for the cohort. Independent predictors of an early recovery of normal shoulder function were investigated using a separate prospective series of consecutive nonoperative displaced mid-shaft clavicular fractures recruited over a two-year period (aged ≥ 16 years). Patient demographics and functional recovery were assessed over the six months post-injury using a standardized protocol. Results. Data from the randomized controlled trial consisted of 86 patients who underwent operative fixation compared with 76 patients that united with nonoperative treatment. The recovery of normal shoulder function, as defined by a DASH score within the predicted 95% confidence interval for each respective patient, was similar between each group at six weeks (operative 26.7% vs nonoperative 25.0%, p = 0.800), three months (52.3% vs 44.2%, p = 0.768), and six months post-injury (86.0% vs 90.8%, p = 0.349). The mean DASH score and return to work were also comparable at each timepoint. In the prospective cohort, 86.5% (n = 173/200) achieved union by six months post-injury (follow-up rate 88.5%, n = 200/226). Regression analysis found that no specific patient, injury, or fracture predictor was associated with an early return of function at six or 12 weeks. Conclusion. Return of normal shoulder function was comparable between acute plate fixation and nonoperative management when union was achieved. One in two patients will have recovery of normal shoulder function at three months, increasing to nine out of ten patients at six months following injury when union occurs, irrespective of initial treatment. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(7):522–529

Aims. The aim of the present study was to assess the outcomes of the induced membrane technique (IMT) for the management of infected segmental bone defects, and to analyze predictive factors associated with unfavourable outcomes. Methods. Between May 2012 and December 2020, 203 patients with infected segmental bone defects treated with the IMT were enrolled. The digital medical records of these patients were retrospectively analyzed. Factors associated with unfavourable outcomes were identified through logistic regression analysis. Results. Among the 203 enrolled patients, infection recurred in 27 patients (13.3%) after bone grafting. The union rate was 75.9% (154 patients) after second-stage surgery without additional procedures, and final union was achieved in 173 patients (85.2%) after second-stage surgery with or without additional procedures. The mean healing time was 9.3 months (3 to 37). Multivariate logistic regression analysis of 203 patients showed that the number (≥ two) of debridements (first stage) was an independent risk factor for infection recurrence and nonunion. Larger defect sizes were associated with higher odds of nonunion. After excluding 27 patients with infection recurrence, multivariate analysis of the remaining 176 patients suggested that intramedullary nail plus plate internal fixation, smoking, and an allograft-to-autograft ratio exceeding 1:3 adversely affected healing time. Conclusion. The IMT is an effective method to achieve infection eradication and union in the management of infected segmental bone defects. Our study identified several risk factors associated with unfavourable outcomes. Some of these factors are modifiable, and the risk of adverse outcomes can be reduced by adopting targeted interventions or strategies. Surgeons can fully inform patients with non-modifiable risk factors preoperatively, and may even use other methods for bone defect reconstruction. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(6):613–622

Aims. Tobacco, in addition to being one of the greatest public health threats facing our world, is believed to have deleterious effects on bone metabolism and especially on bone healing. It has been described in the literature that patients who smoke are approximately twice as likely to develop a nonunion following a non-specific bone fracture. For clavicle fractures, this risk is unclear, as is the impact that such a complication might have on the initial management of these fractures. Methods. A systematic review and meta-analysis were performed for conservatively treated displaced midshaft clavicle fractures. Embase, PubMed, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (via Cochrane Library) were searched from inception to 12 May 2022, with supplementary searches in Open Grey, ClinicalTrials.gov, ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, and Google Scholar. The searches were performed without limits for publication date or languages. Results. The meta-analysis included eight studies, 2,285 observations, and 304 events (nonunion). The random effects model predicted a pooled risk ratio (RR) of 3.68 (95% confidence interval 1.87 to 7.23), which can be considered significant (p = 0.003). It indicates that smoking more than triples the risk of nonunion when a fracture is treated conservatively. Conclusion. Smoking confers a RR of 3.68 for developing a nonunion in patients with a displaced middle third clavicle fracture treated conservatively. We know that most patients with pseudarthrosis will have pain and a poor functional outcome. Therefore, patients should be informed of the significantly higher risks of nonunion and offered smoking cessation efforts and counselling. Moreover, surgery should be considered for any patient who smokes with this type of fracture. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(7):801–807

Aims. The primary aim of this study was to identify independent predictors associated with nonunion and delayed union of tibial diaphyseal fractures treated with intramedullary nailing. The secondary aim was to assess the Radiological Union Scale for Tibial fractures (RUST) score as an early predictor of tibial fracture nonunion. Methods. A consecutive series of 647 patients who underwent intramedullary nailing for tibial diaphyseal fractures were identified from a trauma database. Demographic data, comorbidities, smoking status, alcohol consumption, use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), and steroid use were documented. Details regarding mechanism of injury, fracture classification, complications, and further surgery were recorded. Nonunion was defined as the requirement for revision surgery to achieve union. Delayed union was defined as a RUST score < 10 at six months postoperatively. Results. There were 41 nonunions (6.3%), of which 13 were infected (31.7%), and 77 delayed unions (11.9%). There were 127 open fractures (19.6%). Adjusting for confounding variables, NSAID use (odds ratio (OR) 3.50; p = 0.042), superficial infection (OR 3.00; p = 0.026), open fractures (OR 5.44; p < 0.001), and high-energy mechanism (OR 2.51; p = 0.040) were independently associated with nonunion. Smoking (OR 1.76; p = 0.034), open fracture (OR 2.82; p = 0.001), and high-energy mechanism (OR 1.81; p = 0.030) were independent predictors associated with delayed union. The RUST score at six-week follow-up was highly predictive of nonunion (sensitivity and specificity of 75%). Conclusion. NSAID use, high-energy mechanisms, open fractures, and superficial infection were independently associated with nonunion in patients with tibial diaphyseal fractures treated with intramedullary nailing. The six-week RUST score may be useful in identifying patients at risk of nonunion. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(4):227–235

Aims. The aims of this study were to assess the pre- and postoperative incidence of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) using routine duplex Doppler ultrasound (DUS), to assess the incidence of pulmonary embolism (PE) using CT angiography, and to identify the factors that predict postoperative DVT in patients with a pelvic and/or acetabular fracture. Methods. All patients treated surgically for a pelvic and/or acetabular fracture between October 2016 and January 2020 were enrolled into this prospective single-centre study. The demographic, medical, and surgical details of the patients were recorded. DVT screening of the lower limbs was routinely performed using DUS before and at six to ten days after surgery. CT angiography was used in patients who were suspected of having PE. Age-adjusted univariate and stepwise multiple logistic regression analysis were used to determine the association between explanatory variables and postoperative DVT. Results. A total of 191 patients were included. A DVT was found preoperatively in 12 patients (6.3%), of which six were proximal. A postoperative DVT was found in 42 patients (22%), of which 27 were proximal. Eight patients (4.2%) had a PE, which was secondary to a DVT in three. None of the 12 patients in whom a vena cava filter was implanted prophylactically had a PE. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that the association with the need for spinal surgery (odds ratio (OR) 19.78 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12 to 348.08); p = 0.041), intramedullary nailing of a long bone fracture (OR 4.44 (95% CI 1.05 to 18.86); p = 0.043), an operating time > two hours (OR 3.28 (95% CI 1.09 to 9.88); p = 0.035), and additional trauma surgery (OR 3.1 (95% CI 1.03 to 9.45); p = 0.045) were statistically the most relevant independent predictors of a postoperative DVT. Conclusion. The acknowledgement of the risk factors for the development of a DVT and their weight is crucial to set a threshold for the index of suspicion for this diagnosis by medical staff. We suggest the routine use of the DUS screening for DVT in patients with a pelvic and/or acetabular fracture before and six to ten days after surgery. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(2):283–289

Aims. Femoral periprosthetic fractures are rising in incidence. Their management is complex and carries a high associated mortality. Unlike native hip fractures, there are no guidelines advising on time to theatre in this group. We aim to determine whether delaying surgical intervention influences morbidity or mortality in femoral periprosthetic fractures. Methods. We identified all periprosthetic fractures around a hip or knee arthroplasty from our prospectively collated database between 2012 and 2021. Patients were categorized into early or delayed intervention based on time from admission to surgery (early = ≤ 36 hours, delayed > 36 hours). Patient demographics, existing implants, Unified Classification System fracture subtype, acute medical issues on admission, preoperative haemoglobin, blood transfusion requirement, and length of hospital stay were identified for all patients. Complication and mortality rates were compared between groups. Results. A total of 365 patients were identified: 140 in the early and 225 in the delayed intervention group. Mortality rate was 4.1% at 30 days and 19.2% at one year. There was some indication that those who had surgery within 36 hours had a higher mortality rate, but this did not reach statistical significance at 30 days (p = 0.078) or one year (p = 0.051). Univariate analysis demonstrated that age, preoperative haemoglobin, acute medical issue on admission, and the presence of postoperative complications influenced 30-day and one-year mortality. Using a multivariate model, age and preoperative haemoglobin were independently predictive factors for one-year mortality (odds ratio (OR) 1.071; p < 0.001 and OR 0.980; p = 0.020). There was no association between timing of surgery and postoperative complications. Postoperative complications were more likely with increasing age (OR 1.032; p = 0.001) and revision arthroplasty compared to internal fixation (OR 0.481; p = 0.001). Conclusion. While early intervention may be preferable to reduce prolonged immobilization, there is no evidence that delaying surgery beyond 36 hours increases mortality or complications in patients with a femoral periprosthetic fracture. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(6):452–456

Aims. Open reduction and plate fixation (ORPF) for displaced proximal humerus fractures can achieve reliably good long-term outcomes. However, a minority of patients have persistent pain and stiffness after surgery and may benefit from open arthrolysis, subacromial decompression, and removal of metalwork (ADROM). The long-term results of ADROM remain unknown; we aimed to assess outcomes of patients undergoing this procedure for stiffness following ORPF, and assess predictors of poor outcome. Methods. Between 1998 and 2018, 424 consecutive patients were treated with primary ORPF for proximal humerus fracture. ADROM was offered to symptomatic patients with a healed fracture at six months postoperatively. Patients were followed up retrospectively with demographic data, fracture characteristics, and complications recorded. Active range of motion (aROM), Oxford Shoulder Score (OSS), and EuroQol five-dimension three-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-3L) were recorded preoperatively and postoperatively. Results. A total of 138 patients underwent ADROM; 111 patients were available for long-term follow-up at a mean of 10.9 years (range 1 to 20). Mean age was 50.8 years (18 to 75);79 (57.2%) were female. Mean time from primary ORPF to ADROM was 11.9 months (6 to 19). Five patients developed superficial wound infection; ten developed symptomatic osteonecrosis/post-traumatic arthrosis (ON/PTA); four underwent revision arthrolysis. Median OSS improved from 17 (interquartile range (IQR) 12.0 to 22.0) preoperatively to 40.0 (IQR 31.5 to 48.0) postoperatively, and 39.0 (IQR 31.5 to 46.5) at long-term follow-up (p < 0.001). Median EQ-5D-3L improved from 0.079 (IQR -0.057 to 0.215) to 0.691 (IQR 0.441 to 0.941) postoperatively, and 0.701 (IQR 0.570 to 0.832) at long-term follow-up (p < 0.001). We found that aROM improved in all planes (p < 0.001). Among the variables assessed on multivariable analysis, a manual occupation, worsening Charlson Comorbidity Index and increasing socioeconomic deprivation were most consistently predictive of worse patient-reported outcome scores. Patients who subsequently developed ON/PTA reported significantly worse one-year and late OSS. Conclusion. ADROM in patients with persistent symptomatic stiffness following ORPF can achieve excellent short- and long-term outcomes. More deprived patients, those in a manual occupation, and those with worsening comorbidities have worse outcomes following ADROM. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(1):157–167

Aims. Fractures of the distal radius are common, and form a considerable proportion of the trauma workload. We conducted a study to examine the patterns of injury and treatment for adult patients presenting with distal radius fractures to a major trauma centre serving an urban population. Methods. We undertook a retrospective cohort study to identify all patients treated at our major trauma centre for a distal radius fracture between 1 June 2018 and 1 May 2021. We reviewed the medical records and imaging for each patient to examine patterns of injury and treatment. We undertook a binomial logistic regression to produce a predictive model for operative fixation or inpatient admission. Results. Overall, 571 fractures of the distal radius were treated at our centre during the study period. A total of 146 (26%) patients required an inpatient admission, and 385 surgical procedures for fractures of the distal radius were recorded between June 2018 and May 2021. The most common mechanism of injury was a fall from a height of one metre or less. Of the total fractures, 59% (n = 337) were treated nonoperatively, and of those patients treated with surgery, locked anterior-plate fixation was the preferred technique (79%; n = 180). Conclusion. The epidemiology of distal radius fractures treated at our major trauma centre replicated the classical bimodal distribution described in the literature. Patient age, open fractures, and fracture classification were factors correlated with the decision to treat the fracture operatively. While most fractures were treated nonoperatively, locked anterior-plate fixation remains the predominant method of fixation for fractures of the distal radius; this is despite questions and continued debate about the best method of surgical fixation for these injuries. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(8):623–627

Aims. Deep surgical site infection (SSI) remains an unsolved problem after hip fracture. Debridement, antibiotic, and implant retention (DAIR) has become a mainstream treatment in elective periprosthetic joint infection; however, evidence for DAIR after infected hip hemiarthroplaty is limited. Methods. Patients who underwent a hemiarthroplasty between March 2007 and August 2018 were reviewed. Multivariable binary logistic regression was performed to identify and adjust for risk factors for SSI, and to identify factors predicting a successful DAIR at one year. Results. A total of 3,966 patients were identified. The overall rate of SSI was 1.7% (51 patients (1.3%) with deep SSI, and 18 (0.45%) with superficial SSI). In all, 50 patients underwent revision surgery for infection (43 with DAIR, and seven with excision arthroplasty). After adjustment for other variables, only concurrent urinary tract infection (odds ratio (OR) 2.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.57 to 4.92; p < 0.001) and increasing delay to theatre for treatment of the fracture (OR 1.31 per day, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.52; p < 0.001) were predictors of developing a SSI, while a cemented arthroplasty was protective (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.96; p = 0.031). In all, nine patients (20.9%) were alive at one year with a functioning hemiarthroplasty following DAIR, 20 (46.5%) required multiple surgical debridements after an initial DAIR, and 18 were converted to an excision arthroplasty due to persistent infection, with six were alive at one year. The culture of any gram-negative organism reduced success rates to 12.5% (no cases were successful with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus or Pseudomonas infection). Favourable organisms included Citrobacter and Proteus (100% cure rate). The all-cause mortality at one year after deep SSI was 55.87% versus 24.9% without deep infection. Conclusion. Deep infection remains a devastating complication regardless of the treatment strategy employed. Success rates of DAIR are poor compared to total hip arthroplasty, and should be reserved for favourable organisms in patients able to tolerate multiple surgical procedures. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(11):958–965

Aims. The primary aim of this study was to address the hypothesis that fracture morphology might be more important than posterior malleolar fragment size in rotational type posterior malleolar ankle fractures (PMAFs). The secondary aim was to identify clinically important predictors of outcome for each respective PMAF-type, to challenge the current dogma that surgical decision-making should be based on fragment size. Methods. This observational prospective cohort study included 70 patients with operatively treated rotational type PMAFs, respectively: 23 Haraguchi Type I (large posterolateral-oblique), 22 Type II (two-part posterolateral and posteromedial), and 25 (avulsion-) Type III. There was no standardized protocol on how to address the PMAFs and CT-imaging was used to classify fracture morphology and quality of postoperative syndesmotic reduction. Quantitative 3D-CT (Q3DCT) was used to assess the quality of fracture reduction, respectively: the proportion of articular involvement; residual intra-articular: gap, step-off, and 3D-displacement; and residual gap and step-off at the fibular notch. These predictors were correlated with the Foot and Ankle Outcome Score (FAOS) at two-years follow-up. Results. Bivariate analyses revealed that fracture morphology (p = 0.039) as well as fragment size (p = 0.007) were significantly associated with the FAOS. However, in multivariate analyses, fracture morphology (p = 0.001) (but not fragment size (p = 0.432)) and the residual intra-articular gap(s) (p = 0.009) were significantly associated. Haraguchi Type-II PMAFs had poorer FAOS scores compared with Types I and III. Multivariate analyses identified the following independent predictors: step-off in Type I; none of the Q3DCT-measurements in Type II, and quality of syndesmotic reduction in small-avulsion Type III PMAFs. Conclusion. PMAFs are three separate entities based on fracture morphology, with different predictors of outcome for each PMAF type. The current debate on whether or not to fix PMAFs needs to be refined to determine which morphological subtype benefits from fixation. In PMAFs, fracture morphology should guide treatment instead of fragment size. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(9):1229–1241

Aims. Patients who sustain neck of femur fractures are at high risk of malnutrition. Our intention was to assess to what extent malnutrition was associated with worse patient outcomes. Methods. A total of 1,199 patients with femoral neck fractures presented to a large UK teaching hospital over a three-year period. All patients had nutritional assessments performed using the Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST). Malnutrition risk was compared to mortality, length of hospital stay, and discharge destination using logistic regression. Adjustments were made for covariates to identify whether malnutrition risk independently affected these outcomes. Results. Inpatient mortality was 5.2% (35/678) in the group at low risk of malnutrition, 11.3% (46/408) in the medium-risk group, and 17.7% (20/113) in the high-risk group. Multivariate analysis showed each categorical increase in malnutrition risk independently predicted inpatient mortality with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.59 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14 to 2.21; p = 0.006). An increased mortality rate persisted at 120 days post-injury (OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.20 to 2.22; p = 0.002). There was a stepwise increase in the proportion of patients discharged to a residence offering a greater level of supported living. Multivariate analysis produced an OR of 1.34 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.75; p = 0.030) for each category of MUST score. Median length of hospital stay increased with a worse MUST score: 13.9 days (interquartile range (IQR) 8.2 to 23.8) in the low-risk group; 16.6 days (IQR 9.0 to 31.5) in the medium-risk group; and 22.8 days (IQR 10.1 to 41.1) in the high-risk group. Adjustment for covariates revealed a partial correlation coefficient of 0.072 (p = 0.008). Conclusion. A higher risk of malnutrition independently predicted increased mortality, length of hospital stay, and discharge to a residence offering greater supported living after femoral neck fracture. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(1):164–169

Aims. The last decade has seen a marked increase in surgical rib fracture fixation (SRF). The evidence to support this comes largely from retrospective cohorts, and adjusting for the effect of other injuries sustained at the same time is challenging. This study aims to assess the impact of SRF after blunt chest trauma using national prospective registry data, while controlling for other comorbidities and injuries. Methods. A ten-year extract from the Trauma Audit and Research Network formed the study sample. Patients who underwent SRF were compared with those who received supportive care alone. The analysis was performed first for the entire eligible cohort, and then for patients with a serious (thoracic Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) ≥ 3) or minor (thoracic AIS < 3) chest injury without significant polytrauma. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify predictors of mortality. Kaplan-Meier estimators and multivariable Cox regression were performed to adjust for the effects of concomitant injuries and other comorbidities. Outcomes assessed were 30-day mortality, length of stay (LoS), and need for tracheostomy. Results. A total of 86,838 cases were analyzed. The rate of SRF was 1.2%. SRF significantly reduced risk of mortality (odds ratio (OR) 0.27 (95 confidence interval (CI) 0.128 to 0.273); p < 0.001) and need for tracheostomy (OR 0.22 (95% CI 0.191 to 0.319); p < 0.001) after adjustment for other covariables across the whole cohort. SRF remained protective in patients with a serious chest injury (hazard ratio (HR) 0.24 (95% CI 0.13 to 0.45); p < 0.001). The benefit in more minor chest injury was less clear. Mean LoS for patients who survived was longer in the SRF group (24.29 days (SD 26.54) vs 16.60 days (SD 26.35); p < 0.001). Conclusion. SRF reduces mortality after significant chest trauma associated with both major and minor polytrauma. The rate of fixation in the UK is low and potentially underused as a treatment for severe chest wall injury. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(6):729–735

Aims. Monocyte-lymphocyte ratio (MLR) or neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) are useful for diagnosing periprosthetic joint infection (PJI), but their diagnostic values are unclear for screening fixation-related infection (FRI) in patients for whom conversion total hip arthroplasty (THA) is planned after failed internal fixation for femoral neck fracture. Methods. We retrospectively included 340 patients who underwent conversion THA after internal fixation for femoral neck fracture from January 2008 to September 2020. Those patients constituted two groups: noninfected patients and patients diagnosed with FRI according to the 2013 International Consensus Meeting Criteria. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to determine maximum sensitivity and specificity of these two preoperative ratios. The diagnostic performance of the two ratios combined with preoperative CRP or ESR was also evaluated. Results. The numbers of patients with and without FRI were 19 (5.6%) and 321 (94.4%), respectively. Areas under the ROC curve for diagnosing FRI were 0.763 for MLR, 0.686 for NLR, 0.905 for CRP, and 0.769 for ESR. Based on the Youden index, the optimal predictive cutoffs were 0.25 for MLR and 2.38 for NLR. Sensitivity and specificity were 78.9% and 71.0% for MLR, and 78.9% and 56.4% for NLR, respectively. The combination of CRP with MLR showed a sensitivity of 84.2% and specificity of 94.6%, while the corresponding values for the combination of CRP with NLR were 89.5% and 91.5%, respectively. Conclusion. The presence of preoperative FRI among patients undergoing conversion THA after internal fixation for femoral neck fracture should be determined. The combination of preoperative CRP with NLR is sensitive tool for screening FRI in those patients. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(9):1534–1540

Aims. The primary aim was to assess the independent influence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on 30-day mortality for patients with a hip fracture. The secondary aims were to determine whether: 1) there were clinical predictors of COVID-19 status; and 2) whether social lockdown influenced the incidence and epidemiology of hip fractures. Methods. A national multicentre retrospective study was conducted of all patients presenting to six trauma centres or units with a hip fracture over a 46-day period (23 days pre- and 23 days post-lockdown). Patient demographics, type of residence, place of injury, presentation blood tests, Nottingham Hip Fracture Score, time to surgery, operation, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade, anaesthetic, length of stay, COVID-19 status, and 30-day mortality were recorded. Results. Of 317 patients with acute hip fracture, 27 (8.5%) had a positive COVID-19 test. Only seven (26%) had suggestive symptoms on admission. COVID-19-positive patients had a significantly lower 30-day survival compared to those without COVID-19 (64.5%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 45.7 to 83.3 vs 91.7%, 95% CI 88.2 to 94.8; p < 0.001). COVID-19 was independently associated with increased 30-day mortality risk adjusting for: 1) age, sex, type of residence (hazard ratio (HR) 2.93; p = 0.008); 2) Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (HR 3.52; p = 0.001); and 3) ASA (HR 3.45; p = 0.004). Presentation platelet count predicted subsequent COVID-19 status; a value of < 217 × 10. 9. /l was associated with 68% area under the curve (95% CI 58 to 77; p = 0.002) and a sensitivity and specificity of 63%. A similar number of patients presented with hip fracture in the 23 days pre-lockdown (n = 160) and 23 days post-lockdown (n = 157) with no significant (all p ≥ 0.130) difference in patient demographics, residence, place of injury, Nottingham Hip Fracture Score, time to surgery, ASA, or management. Conclusion. COVID-19 was independently associated with an increased 30-day mortality rate for patients with a hip fracture. Notably, most patients with hip fracture and COVID-19 lacked suggestive symptoms at presentation. Platelet count was an indicator of risk of COVID-19 infection. These findings have implications for the management of hip fractures, in particular the need for COVID-19 testing. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(9):1219–1228

Aims. Currently, periprosthetic fractures are excluded from the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR) definition of atypical femoral fracture (AFFs). This study aims to report on a series of periprosthetic femoral fractures (PFFs) that otherwise meet the criteria for AFFs. Secondary aims were to identify predictors of periprosthetic atypical femoral fractures (PAFFs) and quantify the complications of treatment. Patients and Methods. This was a retrospective case control study of consecutive patients with periprosthetic femoral fractures between 2007 and 2017. Two observers identified 16 PAFF cases (mean age 73.9 years (44 to 88), 14 female patients) and 17 typical periprosthetic fractures in patients on bisphosphonate therapy as controls (mean age 80.7 years (60 to 86, 13 female patients). Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed to identify predictors of PAFF. Management and complications were recorded. Results. Interobserver agreement for the PAFF classification was excellent (kappa = 0.944; p < 0.001). On univariate analysis compared with controls, patients with PAFFs had higher mean body mass indices (28.6 kg/m. 2. (. sd. 8.9) vs 21.5 kg/m. 2. (. sd. 3.3); p = 0.009), longer durations of bisphosphonate therapy (median 5.5 years (IQR 3.2 to 10.6) vs 2.4 years (IQR 1.0 to 6.4); p = 0.04), and were less likely to be on alendronate (50% vs 94%; p = 0.02) with an indication of secondary osteoporosis (19% vs 0%; p = 0.049). Duration of bisphosphonate therapy was an independent predictor of PAFF on multivariate analysis (R. 2. = 0.733; p = 0.05). Following primary fracture management, complication rates were higher in PAFFs (9/16, 56%) than controls (5/17, 29%; p = 0.178) with a relative risk of any complication following PAFF of 1.71 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77 to 3.8) and of reoperation 2.56 (95% CI 1.3 to 5.2). Conclusion. AFFs do occur in association with prostheses. Longer duration of bisphosphonate therapy is an independent predictor of PAFF. Complication rates are higher following PAFFs compared with typical PFFs, particularly of reoperation and infection. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1285–1291

Aims. Acetabular fractures in older adults lead to a high risk of mortality and morbidity. However, only limited data have been published documenting functional outcomes in such patients. The aims of this study were to describe outcomes in patients aged 60 years and older with operatively managed acetabular fractures, and to establish predictors of conversion to total hip arthroplasty (THA). Methods. We conducted a retrospective, registry-based study of 80 patients aged 60 years and older with acetabular fractures treated surgically at The Alfred and Royal Melbourne Hospital. We reviewed charts and radiological investigations and performed patient interviews/examinations and functional outcome scoring. Data were provided by the Victorian Orthopaedic Trauma Outcomes Registry (VOTOR). Survival analysis was used to describe conversion to THA in the group of patients who initially underwent open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF). Multivariate regression analyses were performed to identify factors associated with conversion to THA. Results. Seven patients (8.8%) had died at a median follow-up of 18 months (interquartile range (IQR) 12 to 25), of whom four were in the acute THA group. Eight patients (10%) underwent acute THA. Of the patients who underwent ORIF, 17/72 (23.6%) required conversion to THA at a median of 10.5 months (IQR 4.0 to 32.0) . After controlling for other factors, transport-related cases had an 88% lower rate of conversion to THA (hazard ratio (HR) 0.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.02 to 0.91). Mean standardized Physical Component Summary Score (PCS-12) of the 12-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-12) was comparable with the general population (age-/sex-matched) by 12 to 24 months. Over half of patients working prior to injury (14/26) returned to work by six months and two-thirds of patients (19/27) by 12 months. Conclusion. Patients over 60 years of age managed operatively for displaced acetabular fractures had a relatively high mortality rate and a high conversion rate to THA in the ORIF group but, overall, patients who survived had mean PCS-12 scores that improved over two years and were comparable with controls. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(12):1735–1742

Aims. The purpose of this study was to: review the efficacy of the induced membrane technique (IMT), also known as the Masquelet technique; and investigate the relationship between patient factors and technique variations on the outcomes of the IMT. Methods. A systematic search was performed in CINAHL, The Cochrane Library, Embase, Ovid MEDLINE, and PubMed. We included articles from 1 January 1980 to 30 September 2019. Studies with a minimum sample size of five cases, where the IMT was performed primarily in adult patients (≥ 18 years old), in a long bone were included. Multivariate regression models were performed on patient-level data to determine variables associated with nonunion, postoperative infection, and the need for additional procedures. Results. A total of 48 studies were included, with 1,386 cases treated with the IMT. Patients had a mean age of 40.7 years (4 to 88), and the mean defect size was 5.9 cm (0.5 to 26). In total, 82.3% of cases achieved union after the index second stage procedure. The mean time to union was 6.6 months (1.4 to 58.7) after the second stage. Our multivariate analysis of 450 individual patients showed that the odds of developing a nonunion were significantly increased in those with preoperative infection. Patients with tibial defects, and those with larger defects, were at significantly higher odds of developing a postoperative infection. Our analysis also demonstrated a trend towards the inclusion of antibiotics in the cement spacer having a protective effect against the need for additional procedures. Conclusion. The IMT is an effective management strategy for complex segmental bone defects. Standardized reporting of individual patient data or larger prospective trials is required to determine the optimal implementation of this technique. This is the most comprehensive review of the IMT, and the first to compile individual patient data and use regression models to determine predictors of outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(12):1723–1734

Aims. In order to determine whether and for whom serial radiological evaluation is necessary in one-part proximal humerus fractures, we set out to describe the clinical history and predictors of secondary displacement in patients sustaining these injuries. Patients and Methods. Between January 2014 and April 2016, all patients with an isolated, nonoperatively treated one-part proximal humerus fracture were prospectively followed up. Clinical and radiological evaluation took place at less than two, six, 12, and 52 weeks. Fracture configuration, bone quality, and comminution were determined on the initial radiographs. Fracture healing, secondary displacement, and treatment changes were recorded during follow-up. Results. In 100 patients (59 female, 41 male; mean age 57 years), 91 of the fractures (91%) remained stable. In five of nine patients (55%) with secondary displacement, surgery was recommended. Comminution, present in 23 patients (23%), was identified as a predictor of secondary displacement (p < 0.001). Patients’ age, sex, fracture configuration, and bone quality were not associated with secondary displacement (p ≥ 0.438). Nonoperative treatment resulted in a mean absolute Constant score (CS) of 80 (49 to 98), relative CS of 101% (63% to 138%), median subjective shoulder value of 95% (interquartile range (IQR) 90% to 100%), and median EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire score of 0.89 (IQR 0.80 to 1.00) with bone union in all cases at one-year follow-up. Conclusion. Radiological re-evaluation was only necessary in patients presenting with comminution and may be redundant for 77% of patients with one-part proximal humerus fractures. Nonoperative treatment of one-part proximal humerus fractures remains the mainstay of treatment with a low rate of secondary surgery, a high union rate, and good clinical results. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1307–1312

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Prior to the availability of vaccines, mortality for hip fracture patients with concomitant COVID-19 infection was three times higher than pre-pandemic rates. The primary aim of this study was to determine the 30-day mortality rate of hip fracture patients in the post-vaccine era.

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Proximal femur fractures treatment can involve anterograde nailing with a single or double cephalic screw. An undesirable failure for this fixation is screw cut-out. In a single-screw nail, a tip-apex distance (TAD) greater than 25 mm has been associated with an increased risk of cut-out. The aim of the study was to examine the role of TAD as a risk factor in a cephalic double-screw nail.

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Ankle fracture fixation is commonly performed by junior trainees. Simulation training using cadavers may shorten the learning curve and result in a technically superior surgical performance.

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To evaluate if, for orthopaedic trainees, additional cadaveric simulation training or standard training alone yields superior radiological and clinical outcomes in patients undergoing dynamic hip screw (DHS) fixation or hemiarthroplasty for hip fracture.

Aims. This study reviews the past 30 years of research from the Canadian Orthopedic Trauma Society (COTS), to identify predictive factors that delay or accelerate the course of randomized controlled trials in orthopaedic trauma. Methods. We conducted a methodological review of all papers published through the Canadian Orthopaedic Trauma Society or its affiliates. Data abstracted included: year of publication; journal of publication; study type; number of study sites; sample size; and achievement of sample size goals. Information about the study timelines was also collected, including: the date of study proposal to COTS; date recruitment began; date recruitment ended; and date of publication. Results. In total, 22 studies have been published through the COTS working group, 13 of which are randomized controlled trials (RCTs). In total, 1,423 individual patients have been involved in COTS studies, a mean of 110 patients per trial (22 to 424). Each study was conducted across a mean of approximately six centres (1 to 11) and took nearly ten years (mean 119.9 months (59 to 188)) from presentation of concept to publication. The mean length of enrolment was 63 months (26 to 113) and the mean time from cessation of enrolment to publication 51 months (19 to 78). Regardless of sample size, the only factor associated with a decreased length of enrolment was a higher number of clinical sites (p = 0.041). Neither study sample size nor length of enrolment were associated with total time to publication. Conclusion. Over the last three decades, COTS has developed a multinational strategy to produce high-quality evidence in the field of orthopaedic trauma through 13 multicentre RCTs. Future efficiencies can be realized by recruitment of more clinical sites, improving connectivity between the sites, and the promotion of national streamlined ethics processes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(5):898–901