The primary aim is to estimate the current and potential number of patients on NHS England orthopaedic elective waiting lists by November 2020. The secondary aims are to model recovery strategies; review the deficit of hip and knee arthroplasty from National Joint Registry (NJR) data; and assess the cost of returning to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers. A model of referral, waiting list, and eventual surgery was created and calibrated using historical data from NHS England (April 2017 to March 2020) and was used to investigate the possible consequences of unmet demand resulting from fewer patients entering the treatment pathway and recovery strategies. NJR data were used to estimate the deficit of hip and knee arthroplasty by August 2020 and NHS tariff costs were used to calculate the financial burden.Aims
Methods
Osteoporosis is common and the health and financial
cost of fragility fractures is considerable. The burden of cardiovascular
disease has been reduced dramatically by identifying and targeting
those most at risk. A similar approach is potentially possible in
the context of fragility fractures. The World Health Organization
created and endorsed the use of FRAX, a fracture risk assessment
tool, which uses selected risk factors to calculate a quantitative,
patient-specific, ten-year risk of sustaining a fragility fracture.
Treatment can thus be based on this as well as on measured bone
mineral density. It may also be used to determine at-risk individuals,
who should undergo bone densitometry. FRAX has been incorporated
into the national osteoporosis guidelines of countries in the Americas,
Europe, the Far East and Australasia. The United Kingdom National
Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence also advocates its
use in their guidance on the assessment of the risk of fragility
fracture, and it may become an important tool to combat the health
challenges posed by fragility fractures.
