A suspected fracture of the scaphoid remains difficult to manage despite advances in knowledge and imaging methods. Immobilisation and restriction of activities in a young and active patient must be balanced against the risks of nonunion associated with an undiagnosed and undertreated fracture of the scaphoid.

The assessment of diagnostic tests for a suspected fracture of the scaphoid must take into account two important factors. First, the prevalence of true fractures among suspected fractures is low, which greatly reduces the probability that a positive test will correspond with a true fracture, as false positives are nearly as common as true positives. This situation is accounted for by Bayesian statistics. Secondly, there is no agreed reference standard for a true fracture, which necessitates the need for an alternative method of calculating diagnostic performance characteristics, based upon a statistical method which identifies clinical factors tending to associate (latent classes) in patients with a high probability of fracture.

The most successful diagnostic test to date is MRI, but in low-prevalence situations the positive predictive value of MRI is only 88%, and new data have documented the potential for false positive scans. The best strategy for improving the diagnosis of true fractures among suspected fractures of the scaphoid may well be to develop a clinical prediction rule incorporating a set of demographic and clinical factors which together increase the pre-test probability of a fracture of the scaphoid, in addition to developing increasingly sophisticated radiological tests.

We have reviewed 38 surgically treated cases of spontaneous posterior interosseous nerve palsy in 38 patients with a mean age of 43 years (13 to 68) in order to identify clinical factors associated with its prognosis. Interfascicular neurolysis was performed at a mean of 13 months (1 to 187) after the onset of symptoms. The mean follow-up was 21 months (5.5 to 221). Medical Research Council muscle power of more than grade 4 was considered to be a good result. A further 12 cases in ten patients were treated conservatively and assessed similarly.

Of the 30 cases treated surgically with available outcome data, the result of interfascicular neurolysis was significantly better in patients < 50 years old (younger group (18 nerves); good: 13 nerves (72%), poor: five nerves (28%)) than in cases > 50 years old (older group (12 nerves); good: one nerve (8%), poor: 11 nerves (92%)) (p < 0.001). A pre-operative period of less than seven months was also associated with a good result in the younger group (p = 0.01). The older group had a poor result regardless of the pre-operative delay.

Our recommended therapeutic approach therefore is to perform interfascicular neurolysis if the patient is < 50 years of age, and the pre-operative delay is < seven months. If the patient is > 50 years of age with no sign of recovery for seven months, or in the younger group with a pre-operative delay of more than a year, we advise interfascicular neurolysis together with tendon transfer as the primary surgical procedure.