Aims. Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a systematic autoimmune disorder, characterized by synovial inflammation, bone and cartilage destruction, and disease involvement in multiple organs. Although numerous drugs are employed in RA treatment, some respond little and suffer from severe side effects. This study aimed to screen the candidate therapeutic targets and promising drugs in a novel method. Methods. We developed a module-based and cumulatively scoring approach that is a deeper-layer application of weighted gene co-expression network (WGCNA) and connectivity map (CMap) based on the high-throughput datasets. Results. Four noteworthy RA-related modules were identified, revealing the immune- and infection-related biological processes and pathways involved in RA. HLA-DMA, HLA-DMB, HLA-DPA1, HLA-DPB1, HLA-DQB1, HLA-DRA, HLA-DRB1, BLNK, BTK, CD3D, CD4, IL2RG, INPP5D, LCK, PTPRC, RAC2, SYK, and VAV1 were recognized as the key hub genes with high connectivity in gene regulation networks and gene pathway networks. Moreover, the long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) in the RA-related modules, such as FAM30A and NEAT1, were identified as the indispensable interactors with the hub genes. Finally, candidate drugs were screened by developing a cumulatively scoring approach based on the selected modules. Niclosamide and the other compounds of T-type calcium channel blocker, IKK inhibitor, and PKC activator, HIF activator, and proteasome inhibitor, which harbour the similar gene signature with niclosamide, were promising drugs with high specificity and broad coverage for the RA-related modules. Conclusion. This study provides not only the promising targets and drugs for RA but also a novel methodological insight into the target and drug screening. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2020;9(8):501–514

Aims. Waiting times for arthroplasty surgery in Northern Ireland are among the longest in the NHS, which have been further lengthened by the onset of the COVID-19 global pandemic in March 2020. The Department of Health in Northern Ireland has announced a new Elective Care Framework (ECF), with the framework proposing that by March 2026 no patient will wait more than 52 weeks for inpatient/day case treatment. We aimed to assess the feasibility of achieving this with reference to total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Methods. Mathematical modelling was undertaken to calculate when the ECF targets will be achieved for THA and TKA, as well as the time when waiting lists for THA and TKA will be cleared. The number of patients currently on the waiting list and percentage operating capacity relative to pre-COVID-19 capacity was used to determine future projections. Results. As of May 2021, there were 3,757 patients awaiting primary THA and 4,469 patients awaiting primary TKA in Northern Ireland. Prior to April 2020, there were a mean 2,346 (2,085 to 2,610) patients per annum boarded for primary THA, a mean 2,514 (2,494 to 2,514) patients per annum boarded for primary TKA, and there were a mean 1,554 primary THAs and 1,518 primary TKAs performed per annum. The ECF targets for THA will only be achieved in 2030 if operating capacity is 200% of pre COVID-19 pandemic capacity and in 2042 if capacity is 170%. For TKA, the targets will be met in 2034 if capacity is 200% of pre-COVID-19 pandemic capacity. Conclusion. This modelling demonstrates that, in the absence of major funding and reorganization of elective orthopaedic care, the targets set out in the ECF will not be achieved with regard to THA and TKA. Waiting times for THA and TKA surgery in Northern Ireland are likely to remain greater than 52 weeks for most of this decade. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(4):302–306

Aims. Circular RNA (circRNA) is involved in the regulation of articular cartilage degeneration induced by inflammatory factors or oxidative stress. In a previous study, we found that the expression of circStrn3 was significantly reduced in chondrocytes of osteoarthritis (OA) patients and OA mice. Therefore, the aim of this paper was to explore the role and mechanism of circStrn3 in osteoarthritis. Methods. Minus RNA sequencing, fluorescence in situ hybridization, and quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) were used to detect the expression of circStrn3 in human and mouse OA cartilage tissues and chondrocytes. Chondrocytes were then stimulated to secrete exosomal miR-9-5p by cyclic tensile strain. Intra-articular injection of exosomal miR-9-5p into the model induced by destabilized medial meniscus (DMM) surgery was conducted to alleviate OA progression. Results. Tensile strain could decrease the expression of circStrn3 in chondrocytes. CircStrn3 expression was significantly decreased in human and mouse OA cartilage tissues and chondrocytes. CircStrn3 could inhibit matrix metabolism of chondrocytes through competitively ‘sponging’ miRNA-9-5p targeting Kruppel-like factor 5 (KLF5), indicating that the decrease in circStrn3 might be a protective factor in mechanical instability-induced OA. The tensile strain stimulated chondrocytes to secrete exosomal miR-9-5p. Exosomes with high miR-9-5p expression from chondrocytes could inhibit osteoblast differentiation by targeting KLF5. Intra-articular injection of exosomal miR-9-5p alleviated the progression of OA induced by destabilized medial meniscus surgery in mice. Conclusion. Taken together, these results demonstrate that reduction of circStrn3 causes an increase in miR-9-5p, which acts as a protective factor in mechanical instability-induced OA, and provides a novel mechanism of communication among joint components and a potential application for the treatment of OA. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(1):33–45

Aims. Osteoarthritis (OA) is characterized by persistent destruction of articular cartilage. It has been found that microRNAs (miRNAs) are closely related to the occurrence and development of OA. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the mechanism of miR-486 in the development and progression of OA. Methods. The expression levels of miR-486 in cartilage were determined by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). The expression of collagen, type II, alpha 1 (COL2A1), aggrecan (ACAN), matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-13, and a disintegrin and metalloproteinase with thrombospondin motifs-4 (ADAMTS4) in SW1353 cells at both messenger RNA (mRNA) and protein levels was determined by qRT-PCR, western blot, and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Double luciferase reporter gene assay, qRT-PCR, and western blot assay were used to determine whether silencing information regulator 6 (SIRT6) was involved in miR-486 induction of chondrocyte-like cells to a more catabolic phenotype. Results. Compared with osteonecrosis, the expression of miR-486 was significantly upregulated in cartilage from subjects with severe OA. In addition, overexpressed miR-486 promoted a catabolic phenotype in SW1353 cells by upregulating the expressions of ADAMTS4 and MMP-13 and down-regulating the expressions of COL2A1 and ACAN. Conversely, inhibition of miR-486 had the opposite effect. Furthermore, overexpression of miR-486 significantly inhibited the expression of SIRT6, confirming that SIRT6 is a direct target of miR-486. Moreover, SW1353 cells were transfected with small interfering RNA (si)-SIRT6 and it was found that SIRT6 was involved in and inhibited miR-486-induced changes to SW1353 gene expression. Conclusion. Our results indicate that miR-486 promotes a catabolic phenotype in SW1353 cells in OA by targeting SIRT6. Our findings might provide a potential therapeutic target and theoretical basis for OA. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2021;10(7):459–466

Aims. This study aimed, through bioinformatics analysis and in vitro experiment validation, to identify the key extracellular proteins of intervertebral disc degeneration (IDD). Methods. The gene expression profile of GSE23130 was downloaded from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database. Extracellular protein-differentially expressed genes (EP-DEGs) were screened by protein annotation databases, and we used Gene Ontology (GO) and the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) to analyze the functions and pathways of EP-DEGs. STRING and Cytoscape were used to construct protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks and identify hub EP-DEGs. NetworkAnalyst was used to analyze transcription factors (TFs) and microRNAs (miRNAs) that regulate hub EP-DEGs. A search of the Drug Signatures Database (DSigDB) for hub EP-DEGs revealed multiple drug molecules and drug-target interactions. Results. A total of 56 EP-DEGs were identified in the differential expression analysis. EP-DEGs were enriched in the extracellular structure organization, ageing, collagen-activated signalling pathway, PI3K-Akt signalling pathway, and AGE-RAGE signalling pathway. PPI network analysis showed that the top ten hub EP-DEGs are closely related to IDD. Correlation analysis also demonstrated a significant correlation between the ten hub EP-DEGs (p＜0.05), which were selected to construct TF–gene interaction and TF–miRNA coregulatory networks. In addition, ten candidate drugs were screened for the treatment of IDD. Conclusion. The findings clarify the roles of extracellular proteins in IDD and highlight their potential as promising novel therapeutic targets. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(9):522–535

Aims. The study aimed to determine whether the microRNA miR21-5p (MiR21) mediates temporomandibular joint osteoarthritis (TMJ-OA) by targeting growth differentiation factor 5 (Gdf5). Methods. TMJ-OA was induced in MiR21 knockout (KO) mice and wild-type (WT) mice by a unilateral anterior crossbite (UAC) procedure. Mouse tissues exhibited histopathological changes, as assessed by: Safranin O, toluidine blue, and immunohistochemistry staining; western blotting (WB); and quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). Mouse condylar chondrocytes were transfected with a series of MiR21 mimic, MiR21 inhibitor, Gdf5 siRNA (si-GDF5), and flag-GDF5 constructs. The effects of MiR-21 and Gdf5 on the expression of OA related molecules were evaluated by immunofluorescence, alcian blue staining, WB, and RT-qPCR. Results. UAC altered the histological structure and extracellular matrix content of cartilage in the temporomandibular joint (TMJ), and KO of MiR21 alleviated this effect (p < 0.05). Upregulation of MiR21 influenced the expression of TMJ-OA related molecules in mandibular condylar chondrocytes via targeting Gdf5 (p < 0.05). Gdf5 overexpression significantly decreased matrix metalloproteinase 13 (MMP13) expression (p < 0.05) and reversed the effects of MiR21 (p < 0.05). Conclusion. MiR21, which acts as a critical regulator of Gdf5 in chondrocytes, regulates TMJ-OA related molecules and is involved in cartilage matrix degradation, contributing to the progression of TMJ-OA. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2020;9(10):689–700

Objectives. Osteoarthritis (OA) is characterised by articular cartilage degradation. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) have been identified in the development of OA. The purpose of our study was to explore the functional role and underlying mechanism of miR-138-5p in interleukin-1 beta (IL-1β)-induced extracellular matrix (ECM) degradation of OA cartilage. Materials and Methods. Human articular cartilage was obtained from patients with and without OA, and chondrocytes were isolated and stimulated by IL-1β. The expression levels of miR-138-5p in cartilage and chondrocytes were both determined. After transfection with miR-138-5p mimics, allele-specific oligonucleotide (ASO)-miR-138-5p, or their negative controls, the messenger RNA (mRNA) levels of aggrecan (ACAN), collagen type II and alpha 1 (COL2A1), the protein levels of glycosaminoglycans (GAGs), and both the mRNA and protein levels of matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-13 were evaluated. Luciferase reporter assay, quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR), and Western blot were performed to explore whether Forkhead Box C1 (FOCX1) was a target of miR-138-5p. Further, we co-transfected OA chondrocytes with miR-138-5p mimics and pcDNA3.1 (+)-FOXC1 and then stimulated with IL-1β to determine whether miR-138-5p-mediated IL-1β-induced cartilage matrix degradation resulted from targeting FOXC1. Results. MiR-138-5p was significantly increased in OA cartilage and in chondrocytes in response to IL-1β-stimulation. Overexpression of miR-138-5p significantly increased the IL-1β-induced downregulation of COL2A1, ACAN, and GAGs, and increased the IL-1β-induced over expression of MMP-13.We found that FOXC1 is directly regulated by miR-138-5p. Additionally, co-transfection with miR-138-5p mimics and pcDNA3.1 (+)-FOXC1 resulted in higher levels of COL2A1, ACAN, and GAGs, but lower levels of MMP-13. Conclusion. miR-138-5p promotes IL-1β-induced cartilage degradation in human chondrocytes, possibly by targeting FOXC1. Cite this article: Y. Yuan, G. Q. Zhang, W. Chai,M. Ni, C. Xu, J. Y. Chen. Silencing of microRNA-138-5p promotes IL-1β-induced cartilage degradation in human chondrocytes by targeting FOXC1: miR-138 promotes cartilage degradation. Bone Joint Res 2016;5:523–530. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.510.BJR-2016-0074.R2

Aims. Exosomes derived from bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells (BMSCs) have been reported to be a promising cellular therapeutic approach for various human diseases. The current study aimed to investigate the mechanism of BMSC-derived exosomes carrying microRNA (miR)-136-5p in fracture healing. Methods. A mouse fracture model was initially established by surgical means. Exosomes were isolated from BMSCs from mice. The endocytosis of the mouse osteoblast MC3T3-E1 cell line was analyzed. CCK-8 and disodium phenyl phosphate microplate methods were employed to detect cell proliferation and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activity, respectively. The binding of miR-136-5p to low-density lipoprotein receptor related protein 4 (LRP4) was analyzed by dual luciferase reporter gene assay. HE staining, tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase (TRAP) staining, and immunohistochemistry were performed to evaluate the healing of the bone tissue ends, the positive number of osteoclasts, and the positive expression of β-catenin protein, respectively. Results. miR-136-5p promoted fracture healing and osteoblast proliferation and differentiation. BMSC-derived exosomes exhibited an enriched miR-136-5p level, and were internalized by MC3T3-E1 cells. LRP4 was identified as a downstream target gene of miR-136-5p. Moreover, miR-136-5p or exosomes isolated from BMSCs (BMSC-Exos) containing miR-136-5p activated the Wnt/β-catenin pathway through the inhibition of LRP4 expression. Furthermore, BMSC-derived exosomes carrying miR-136-5p promoted osteoblast proliferation and differentiation, thereby promoting fracture healing. Conclusion. BMSC-derived exosomes carrying miR-136-5p inhibited LRP4 and activated the Wnt/β-catenin pathway, thus facilitating fracture healing. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2021;10(12):744–758

We describe the impact of a targeted performance improvement programme and the associated performance improvement interventions, on mortality rates, error rates and process of care for haemodynamically unstable patients with pelvic fractures. Clinical care and performance improvement data for 185 adult patients with exsanguinating pelvic trauma presenting to a United Kingdom Major Trauma Centre between January 2007 and January 2011 were analysed with univariate and multivariate regression and compared with National data. In total 62 patients (34%) died from their injuries and opportunities for improved care were identified in one third of deaths. Three major interventions were introduced during the study period in response to the findings. These were a massive haemorrhage protocol, a decision-making algorithm and employment of specialist pelvic orthopaedic surgeons. Interventions which improved performance were associated with an annual reduction in mortality (odds ratio 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.44 to 0.93), p = 0.02), a reduction in error rates (p = 0.024) and significant improvements in the targeted processes of care. Exsanguinating patients with pelvic trauma are complex to manage and are associated with high mortality rates; implementation of a targeted performance improvement programme achieved sustained improvements in mortality, error rates and trauma care in this group of severely injured patients. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014;96-B:1090–7

Objectives. This study aimed to investigate the functional effects of microRNA (miR)-214-5p on osteoblastic cells, which might provide a potential role of miR-214-5p in bone fracture healing. Methods. Blood samples were obtained from patients with hand fracture or intra-articular calcaneal fracture and from healthy controls (HCs). Expression of miR-214-5p was monitored by qRT-PCR at day 7, 14 and 21 post-surgery. Mouse osteoblastic MC3T3-E1 cells were transfected with antisense oligonucleotides (ASO)-miR-214-5p, collagen type IV alpha 1 (COL4A1) vector or their controls; thereafter, cell viability, apoptotic rate, and the expression of collagen type I alpha 1 (COL1A1), type II collagen (COL-II), and type X collagen (COL-X) were determined. Luciferase reporter assay, qRT-PCR, and Western blot were performed to ascertain whether COL4A1 was a target of miR-214-5p. Results. Plasma miR-214-5p was highly expressed in patients with bone fracture compared with HCs after fracture (p < 0.05 or p < 0.01). Inhibition of miR-214-5p increased the viability of MC3T3-E1 cells and the expressions of COL1A1 and COL-X, but decreased the apoptotic rate and COL-II expression (p < 0.05 or p < 0.01). COL4A1 was a target of miR-214-5p, and was negatively regulated by miR-214-5p (p < 0.05 or p < 0.01). Overexpression of COL4A1 showed a similar impact on cell viability, apoptotic rate, and COL1A1, COL-II, and COL-X expressions inhibiting miR-214-5p (p < 0.01). Conclusion. Inhibition of miR-214-5p promotes cell survival and extracellular matrix (ECM) formation of osteoblastic MC3T3-E1 cells by targeting COL4A1. Cite this article: Q. S. Li, F. Y. Meng, Y. H. Zhao, C. L. Jin, J. Tian, X. J. Yi. Inhibition of microRNA-214-5p promotes cell survival and extracellular matrix formation by targeting collagen type IV alpha 1 in osteoblastic MC3T3-E1 cells. Bone Joint Res 2017;6:464–471. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.68.BJR-2016-0208.R2

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To explore key stakeholder views around feasibility and acceptability of trials seeking to prevent post-traumatic osteoarthritis (PTOA) following knee injury, and provide guidance for next steps in PTOA trial design.

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Bacterial infection activates neutrophils to release neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) in bacterial biofilms of periprosthetic joint infections (PJIs). The aim of this study was to evaluate the increase in NET activation and release (NETosis) and haemostasis markers in the plasma of patients with PJI, to evaluate whether such plasma induces the activation of neutrophils, to ascertain whether increased NETosis is also mediated by reduced DNaseI activity, to explore novel therapeutic interventions for NETosis in PJI in vitro, and to evaluate the potential diagnostic use of these markers.

Posterior spinal instrumentation with the placement of intrapedicular implants has become an important technique. We have designed a hand-held target device to facilitate the open or percutaneous location and penetration of the thoracolumbar pedicles. A cylindrical pin guide incorporates two metal rings and can be moved under image intensifier control until the rings are superimposed to show correct alignment. The radiation dosage for the surgeon is minimal; the device allowed accurate placement of 106 consecutive pedicle screws

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Fibrinolysis plays a key transition step from haematoma formation to angiogenesis and fracture healing. Low-magnitude high-frequency vibration (LMHFV) is a non-invasive biophysical modality proven to enhance fibrinolytic factors. This study investigates the effect of LMHFV on fibrinolysis in a clinically relevant animal model to accelerate osteoporotic fracture healing.

We used interconnected porous calcium hydroxyapatite ceramic to bridge a rabbit ulnar defect. Two weeks after inducing the defect we percutaneously injected rabbit bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stromal cells labelled with ferumoxide. The contribution of an external magnetic targeting system to attract these cells into the ceramic and their effect on subsequent bone formation were evaluated. This technique significantly facilitated the infiltration of ferumoxide-labelled cells into ceramic and significantly contributed to the enhancement of bone formation even in the chronic phase. As such, it is potentially of clinical use to treat fractures, bone defects, delayed union and nonunion

Aims. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether achieving medial joint opening, as measured by the change in the joint line convergence angle (∆JLCA), is a better predictor of clinical outcomes after high tibial osteotomy (HTO) compared with the mechanical axis deviation, and to find individualized targets for the redistribution of load that reflect bony alignment, joint laxity, and surgical technique. Methods. This retrospective study analyzed 121 knees in 101 patients. Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) were collected preoperatively and one year postoperatively, and were analyzed according to the surgical technique (opening or closing wedge), postoperative mechanical axis deviation (deviations above and below 10% from the target), and achievement of medial joint opening (∆JLCA > 1°). Radiological parameters, including JLCA, mechanical axis deviation, and the difference in JLCA between preoperative standing and supine radiographs (JLCA. PD. ), an indicator of medial soft-tissue laxity, were measured. Cut-off points for parameters related to achieving medial joint opening were calculated from receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results. Patients in whom the medial joint opening was achieved had significantly better postoperative PROMs compared with those without medial opening (all p < 0.05). Patients who were outliers with deviation of > 10% from the target mechanical axis deviation had significantly similar PROMs compared with patients with an acceptable axis deviation (all p > 0.05). Medial joint opening was affected by postoperative mechanical axis deviation and JLCA. PD. The influence of JLCA. PD. on postoperative axis deviation was more pronounced in a closing wedge than in an opening wedge HTO. Conclusion. Medial joint opening rather than the mechanical axis deviation determined the clinical outcome in patients who underwent HTO. The JLCA. PD. identified the optimal postoperative axis deviation necessary to achieve medial joint opening. For patients with increased laxity, lowering the target axis deviation is recommended to achieve medial joint opening. The target axis deviation should also differ according to the technique of undergoing HTO. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(3):240–248

Aims. Prompt and sufficient broad-spectrum empirical antibiotic treatment is key to preventing infection following open tibial fractures. Succeeding co-administration, we dynamically assessed the time for which vancomycin and meropenem concentrations were above relevant epidemiological cut-off (ECOFF) minimal inhibitory concentrations (T > MIC) in tibial compartments for the bacteria most frequently encountered in open fractures. Low and high MIC targets were applied: 1 and 4 µg/ml for vancomycin, and 0.125 and 2 µg/ml for meropenem. Methods. Eight pigs received a single dose of 1,000 mg vancomycin and 1,000 mg meropenem simultaneously over 100 minutes and 10 minutes, respectively. Microdialysis catheters were placed for sampling over eight hours in tibial cancellous bone, cortical bone, and adjacent subcutaneous adipose tissue. Venous blood samples were collected as references. Results. Across the targeted ECOFF values, vancomycin displayed longer T > MIC in all the investigated compartments in comparison to meropenem. For both drugs, cortical bone exhibited the shortest T > MIC. For the low MIC targets and across compartments, mean T > MIC ranged between 208 and 449 minutes (46% to 100%) for vancomycin and between 189 and 406 minutes (42% to 90%) for meropenem. For the high MIC targets, mean T > MIC ranged between 30 and 446 minutes (7% to 99%) for vancomycin and between 45 and 181 minutes (10% to 40%) for meropenem. Conclusion. The differences in the T > MIC between the low and high targets illustrate how the interpretation of these results is highly susceptible to the defined MIC target. To encompass any trauma, contamination, or individual tissue differences, a more aggressive dosing approach may be considered to achieve longer T > MIC in all the exposed tissues, and thereby lower the risk of acquiring an infection after open tibial fractures. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2022;11(2):112–120

Aims. Pellino1 (Peli1) has been reported to regulate various inflammatory diseases. This study aims to explore the role of Peli1 in the occurrence and development of osteoarthritis (OA), so as to find new targets for the treatment of OA. Methods. After inhibiting Peli1 expression in chondrocytes with small interfering RNA (siRNA), interleukin (IL)-1β was used to simulate inflammation, and OA-related indicators such as synthesis, decomposition, inflammation, and apoptosis were detected. Toll-like receptor (TLR) and nuclear factor-kappa B (NF-κB) signalling pathway were detected. After inhibiting the expression of Peli1 in macrophages Raw 264.7 with siRNA and intervening with lipopolysaccharide (LPS), the polarization index of macrophages was detected, and the supernatant of macrophage medium was extracted as conditioned medium to act on chondrocytes and detect the apoptosis index. The OA model of mice was established by destabilized medial meniscus (DMM) surgery, and adenovirus was injected into the knee cavity to reduce the expression of Peli1. The degree of cartilage destruction and synovitis were evaluated by haematoxylin and eosin (H&E) staining, Safranin O/Fast Green staining, and immunohistochemistry. Results. In chondrocytes, knockdown of Peli1 produced anti-inflammatory and anti-apoptotic effects by targeting the TLR and NF-κB signalling pathways. We found that in macrophages, knockdown of Peli1 can inhibit M1-type polarization of macrophages. In addition, the corresponding conditioned culture medium of macrophages applied to chondrocytes can also produce an anti-apoptotic effect. During in vivo experiments, the results have also shown that knockdown Peli1 reduces cartilage destruction and synovial inflammation. Conclusion. Knockdown of Peli1 has a therapeutic effect on OA, which therefore makes it a potential therapeutic target for OA. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(2):121–132

Aims. There is concern that aggressive target pricing in the new Bundled Payment for Care Improvement Advanced (BPCI-A) penalizes high-performing groups that had achieved low costs through prior experience in bundled payments. We hypothesize that this methodology incorporates unsustainable downward trends on Target Prices and will lead to groups opting out of BPCI Advanced in favour of a traditional fee for service. Methods. Using the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) data, we compared the Target Price factors for hospitals and physician groups that participated in both BPCI Classic and BPCI Advanced (legacy groups), with groups that only participated in BPCI Advanced (non-legacy). With rebasing of Target Prices in 2020 and opportunity for participants to drop out, we compared retention rates of hospitals and physician groups enrolled at the onset of BPCI Advanced with current enrolment in 2020. Results. At its peak in July 2015, 342 acute care hospitals and physician groups participated in Lower Extremity Joint Replacement (LEJR) in BPCI Classic. At its peak in March 2019, 534 acute care hospitals and physician groups participated in LEJR in BPCI Advanced. In January 2020, only 14.5% of legacy hospitals and physician groups opted to stay in BPCI Advanced for LEJR. Analysis of Target Price factors by legacy hospitals during both programmes demonstrates that participants in BPCI Classic received larger negative adjustments on the Target Price than non-legacy hospitals. Conclusion. BPCI Advanced provides little opportunity for a reduction in cost to offset a reduced Target Price for efficient providers, as made evident by the 85.5% withdrawal rate for BPCI Advanced. Efficient providers in BPCI Advanced are challenged by the programme’s application of trend and efficiency factors that presumes their cost reduction can continue to decline at the same rate as non-efficient providers. It remains to be seen if reverting back to Medicare fee for service will support the same level of care and quality achieved in historical bundled payment programmes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(6 Supple A):119–125