Aims. The aim of this study was to compare the clinical effectiveness of Kirschner wire (K-wire) fixation with locking-plate fixation for patients with a dorsally displaced fracture of the distal radius in the five years after injury. Patients and Methods. We report the five-year follow-up of a multicentre, two-arm, parallel-group randomized controlled trial. A total of 461 adults with a dorsally displaced fracture of the distal radius within 3 cm of the radiocarpal joint that required surgical fixation were recruited from 18 trauma centres in the United Kingdom. Patients were excluded if the surface of the wrist joint was so badly displaced it required open reduction. In all, 448 patients were randomized to receive either K-wire fixation or locking-plate fixation. In the K-wire group, there were 179 female and 38 male patients with a mean age of 59.1 years (19 to 89). In the locking-plate group, there were 194 female and 37 male patients with a mean age of 58.3 years (20 to 89). The primary outcome measure was the patient-rated wrist evaluation (PRWE). Secondary outcomes were health-related quality of life using the EuroQol five-dimension three-level (EQ-5D-3L) assessment, and further surgery related to the index fracture. Results. At 12 months, 402/448 participants (90%) recruited into the main study provided PRWE scores. At year two, 294 participants (66%) provided scores; at year five, 198 participants (44%) provided scores. There was no clinically relevant difference in the PRWE at any point during the five-year follow-up; at five years, the PRWE score was 8.3 (12.5) in the wire group and 11.3 (15.6) in the plate group (95% confidence interval -6.99 to 0.99; p = 0.139). Nor was there a clinically relevant difference in health-related quality of life. Only three participants had further surgery in the five years after their injury (one in the wire group and two in the plate group). Conclusion. This follow-up study continues to show no evidence of a difference in wrist pain, wrist function, or quality of life for patients treated with wires versus locking plates in the five years following a dorsally displaced fracture of the distal radius. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:978–983

Aims

This study aimed to investigate the relationship between changes in patellar height and clinical outcomes at a mean follow-up of 7.7 years (5 to 10) after fixed-bearing posterior-stabilized total knee arthroplasty (PS-TKA).

Aims

The primary aim of this independent prospective randomised trial was to compare serum metal ion levels for ceramic-on-metal (CoM) and metal-on-metal (MoM) bearing surfaces in total hip arthroplasty (THA). Our one-year results demonstrated elevation in metal ion levels above baseline with no significant difference between the CoM and MoM groups. This paper reviews the five-year data.

Aims

The PROximal Fracture of the Humerus Evaluation by Randomisation (PROFHER) randomised clinical trial compared the operative and non-operative treatment of adults with a displaced fracture of the proximal humerus involving the surgical neck. The aim of this study was to determine the long-term treatment effects beyond the two-year follow-up.

Aims

The aim of this study was to compare the mid-term patient-reported outcome, bone remodelling, and migration of a short stem (Collum Femoris Preserving; CFP) with a conventional uncemented stem (Corail).

Total arthroplasty was performed on 21 congenitally dislocated hips in 18 women. In all cases the femoral head was dislocated cranially at least one-fifth of the height of the pelvis. The components were both cemented, the acetabulum being replaced to its original position. The acetabular roof was reconstructed by bone graft in 13 hips, and trochanteric osteotomy was done in 18 hips. The patients were assessed at a median follow-up time of 7.5 years when their median age was 54 years. Nine patients had been revised or required revision. At follow-up the average functional score (according to Charnley) was 6 for pain, 4 for walking ability and 5 for range of motion. The Harris hip score was 82. The patients' subjective evaluation of their satisfaction with the late results on a visual analogue scale was 93, range 23 to 100. The high loosening rate in such patients demands regular follow-up and preparedness for revision surgery.

We performed Kawamura's dome osteotomy of the pelvis, with simultaneous distal transfer of the greater trochanter on 101 hips in 91 patients with osteoarthritis secondary to hip dysplasia. The mean age at operation was 30 years (15 to 55), and follow-up was for a mean of 8.3 years (5 to 14). Clinical evaluation using the Merle d'Aubigne score showed 92% excellent or good results. Radiologically, 91 hips had good acetabular remodelling and showed no signs of progression of osteoarthritis. In ten hips the osteoarthritic process progressed despite the osteotomy and six of these eventually underwent total hip replacement. Factors which were significantly associated with a poor outcome included an advanced stage of osteoarthritis, valgus deformity of the proximal femur, old age at the time of operation and postoperative persistence of abductor insufficiency.

This study compared the outcome of total knee replacement (TKR) in adult patients with fixed- and mobile-bearing prostheses during the first post-operative year and at five years’ follow-up, using gait parameters as a new objective measure. This double-blind randomised controlled clinical trial included 55 patients with mobile-bearing (n = 26) and fixed-bearing (n = 29) prostheses of the same design, evaluated pre-operatively and post-operatively at six weeks, three months, six months, one year and five years. Each participant undertook two walking trials of 30 m and completed the EuroQol questionnaire, Western Ontario and McMaster Universities osteoarthritis index, Knee Society score, and visual analogue scales for pain and stiffness. Gait analysis was performed using five miniature angular rate sensors mounted on the trunk (sacrum), each thigh and calf. The study population was divided into two groups according to age (≤ 70 years versus > 70 years).

Improvements in most gait parameters at five years’ follow-up were greater for fixed-bearing TKRs in older patients (> 70 years), and greater for mobile-bearing TKRs in younger patients (≤ 70 years). These findings should be confirmed by an extended age controlled study, as the ideal choice of prosthesis might depend on the age of the patient at the time of surgery.

The ideal bearing surface for young patients undergoing total hip replacement (THR) remains controversial. We report the five-year results of a randomised controlled trial comparing the clinical and radiological outcomes of 102 THRs in 91 patients who were <  65 years of age. These patients were randomised to receive a cobalt–chrome on ultra-high-molecular-weight polyethylene, cobalt–chrome on highly cross-linked polyethylene, or a ceramic-on-ceramic bearing. In all, 97 hip replacements in 87 patients were available for review at five years. Two hips had been revised, one for infection and one for peri-prosthetic fracture.

At the final follow-up there were no significant differences between the groups for the mean Western Ontario and McMaster Universities osteoarthritis index (pain, p = 0.543; function, p = 0.10; stiffness, p = 0.99), Short Form-12 (physical component, p = 0.878; mental component, p = 0.818) or Harris hip scores (p = 0.22). Radiological outcomes revealed no significant wear in the ceramic group.

Comparison of standard and highly cross-linked polyethylene, however, revealed an almost threefold difference in the mean annual linear wear rates (0.151 mm/year versus 0.059 mm/year, respectively) (p < 0.001).

The early designs of hip resurfacing implants suffered high rates of early failure, making it impossible to obtain valuable mid-term radiostereophotogrammetric (RSA) results. The metal-on-metal Birmingham Hip Resurfacing arthroplasty has shown promising mid-term results and we present here the first mid-term RSA analysis of a hip resurfacing implant.

The analysis was performed in 19 hips at five years post-operatively. The mean acetabular component translation and rotation, and femoral component translation were compared with the previous RSA measurements at two and six months, and one and two years.

There was no statistical significance (t-test, p ≤ 0.05) between these consecutive movements, indicating the mid-term stability of the implant.

Aims. Conflicting clinical results are reported for the ATTUNE Total Knee Arthroplasty (TKA). This randomized controlled trial (RCT) evaluated five-year follow-up results comparing cemented ATTUNE and PFC-Sigma cruciate retaining TKAs, analyzing component migration as measured by radiostereometric analysis (RSA), clinical outcomes, patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), and radiological outcomes. Methods. A total of 74 primary TKAs were included in this single-blind RCT. RSA examinations were performed, and PROMs and clinical outcomes were collected immediate postoperatively, and at three, six, 12, 24, and 60 months’ follow-up. Radiolucent lines (RLLs) were measured in standard anteroposterior radiographs at six weeks, and 12 and 60 months postoperatively. Results. At five-year follow-up, RSA data from 61 patients were available and the mean maximum total point motion (MTPM) of the femoral components were: ATTUNE: 0.96 mm (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.79 to 1.14) and PFC-Sigma 1.37 mm (95% CI 1.18 to 1.59) (p < 0.001). The PFC-Sigma femoral component migrated more in the first postoperative year, but stabilized thereafter. MPTM of the tibial components were comparable at five-year follow-up: ATTUNE 1.12 mm (95% CI 0.95 to 1.31) and PFC-Sigma 1.25 mm (95% CI 1.07 to 1.44) (p = 0.438). RLL at the medial tibial implant-cement interface remained more prevalent for the ATTUNE at five-year follow-up compared to the PFC-Sigma (20% vs 3%). RLL did not progress over time, and varied between patients at different timepoints for both TKA systems. Clinical outcomes and PROMs improved compared with preoperative scores, and were not different between groups. Conclusion. MTPM migration at five-year follow-up of the femoral and tibial component of the ATTUNE were similar and as low as that of the PFC-Sigma. MTPM migration of both knee implants did not significantly change from one year post-surgery, indicating stable fixation. Long-term ATTUNE performance may be expected to be comparable to the clinically well-performing PFC-Sigma. We have not found evidence of increased tibial component migration as measured by RSA to support concerns about cement debonding and a higher risk of aseptic loosening with the ATTUNE TKA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(11):1168–1176

Aims. The Exeter short stem was designed for patients with Dorr type A femora and short-term results are promising. The aim of this study was to evaluate the minimum five-year stem migration pattern of Exeter short stems in comparison with Exeter standard stems. Methods. In this case-control study, 25 patients (22 female) at mean age of 78 years (70 to 89) received cemented Exeter short stem (case group). Cases were selected based on Dorr type A femora and matched first by Dorr type A and then age to a control cohort of 21 patients (11 female) at mean age of 74 years (70 to 89) who received with cemented Exeter standard stems (control group). Preoperatively, all patients had primary hip osteoarthritis and no osteoporosis as confirmed by dual X-ray absorptiometry scanning. Patients were followed with radiostereometry for evaluation of stem migration (primary endpoint), evaluation of cement quality, and Oxford Hip Score. Measurements were taken preoperatively, and at three, 12, and 24 months and a minimum five-year follow-up. Results. At three months, subsidence of the short stem -0.87 mm (95% confidence interval (CI) -1.07 to -0.67) was lower compared to the standard stem -1.59 mm (95% CI -1.82 to -1.36; p < 0.001). Both stems continued a similar pattern of subsidence until five-year follow-up. At five-year follow-up, the short stem had subsided mean -1.67 mm (95% CI -1.98 to -1.36) compared to mean -2.67 mm (95% CI -3.03 to -2.32) for the standard stem (p < 0.001). Subsidence was not influenced by preoperative bone quality (osteopenia vs normal) or cement mantle thickness. Conclusion. The standard Exeter stem had more early subsidence compared with the short Exeter stem in patients with Dorr type A femora, but thereafter a similar migration pattern of subsidence until minimum five years follow-up. Both the standard and the short Exeter stems subside. The standard stem subsides more compared to the short stem in Dorr type A femurs. Subsidence of the Exeter stems was not affected by cement mantle thickness. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(7):507–515

Aims. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between fracture displacement and survivorship of the native hip joint without conversion to a total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to determine predictors for conversion to THA in patients treated nonoperatively for acetabular fractures. Methods. A multicentre cross-sectional study was performed in 170 patients who were treated nonoperatively for an acetabular fracture in three level 1 trauma centres. Using the post-injury diagnostic CT scan, the maximum gap and step-off values in the weightbearing dome were digitally measured by two trauma surgeons. Native hip survival was reported using Kaplan-Meier curves. Predictors for conversion to THA were determined using Cox regression analysis. Results. Of 170 patients, 22 (13%) subsequently received a THA. Native hip survival in patients with a step-off ≤ 2 mm, > 2 to 4 mm, or > 4 mm differed at five-year follow-up (respectively: 94% vs 70% vs 74%). Native hip survival in patients with a gap ≤ 2 mm, > 2 to 4 mm, or > 4 mm differed at five-year follow-up (respectively: 100% vs 84% vs 78%). Step-off displacement > 2 mm (> 2 to 4 mm hazard ratio (HR) 4.9, > 4 mm HR 5.6) and age > 60 years (HR 2.9) were independent predictors for conversion to THA at follow-up. Conclusion. Patients with minimally displaced acetabular fractures who opt for nonoperative fracture treatment may be informed that fracture displacement (e.g. gap and step-off) up to 2 mm, as measured on CT images, results in limited risk on conversion to THA. Step-off ≥ 2 mm and age > 60 years are predictors for conversion to THA and can be helpful in the shared decision-making process. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(9):1020–1029

Aims. Brace treatment is the cornerstone of managing developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH), yet there is a lack of evidence-based treatment protocols, which results in wide variations in practice. To resolve this, we have developed a comprehensive nonoperative treatment protocol conforming to published consensus principles, with well-defined a priori criteria for inclusion and successful treatment. Methods. This was a single-centre, prospective, longitudinal cohort study of a consecutive series of infants with ultrasound-confirmed DDH who underwent a comprehensive nonoperative brace management protocol in a unified multidisciplinary clinic between January 2012 and December 2016 with five-year follow-up radiographs. The radiological outcomes were acetabular index-lateral edge (AI-L), acetabular index-sourcil (AI-S), centre-edge angle (CEA), acetabular depth ratio (ADR), International Hip Dysplasia Institute (IHDI) grade, and evidence of avascular necrosis (AVN). At five years, each hip was classified as normal (< 1 SD), borderline dysplastic (1 to 2 SDs), or dysplastic (> 2 SDs) based on validated radiological norm-referenced values. Results. Of 993 infants assessed clinically and sonographically, 21% (212 infants, 354 abnormal hips) had DDH and were included. Of these, 95% (202 infants, 335 hips) successfully completed bracing, and 5% (ten infants, 19 hips) failed bracing due to irreducible hip(s). The success rate of bracing for unilateral dislocations was 88% (45/51 infants) and for bilateral dislocations 83% (20/24 infants). The femoral nerve palsy rate was 1% (2/212 infants). At five-year follow-up (mean 63 months (SD 5.9; 49 to 83)) the prevalence of residual dysplasia after successful brace treatment was 1.6% (5/312 hips). All hips were IHDI grade I and none had AVN. Four children (4/186; 2%) subsequently underwent surgery for residual dysplasia. Conclusion. Our comprehensive protocol for nonoperative treatment of infant DDH has shown high rates of success and extremely low rates of residual dysplasia at a mean age of five years. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(8):935–942

Aims. To perform an incremental cost-utility analysis and assess the impact of differential costs and case volume on the cost-effectiveness of robotic arm-assisted unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (rUKA) compared to manual (mUKA). Methods. This was a five-year follow-up study of patients who were randomized to rUKA (n = 64) or mUKA (n = 65). Patients completed the EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D) preoperatively, and at three months and one, two, and five years postoperatively, which was used to calculate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. Costs for the primary and additional surgery and healthcare costs were calculated. Results. rUKA was associated with a relative 0.012 QALY gain at five years, which was associated with an incremental cost per QALY of £13,078 for a unit undertaking 400 cases per year. A cost per QALY of less than £20,000 was achieved when ≥ 300 cases were performed per year. However, on removal of the cost for a revision for presumed infection (mUKA group, n = 1) the cost per QALY was greater than £38,000, which was in part due to the increased intraoperative consumable costs associated with rUKA (£626 per patient). When the absolute cost difference (operative and revision costs) was less than £240, a cost per QALY of less than £20,000 was achieved. On removing the cost of the revision for infection, rUKA was cost-neutral when more than 900 cases per year were undertaken and when the consumable costs were zero. Conclusion. rUKA was a cost-effective intervention with an incremental cost per QALY of £13,078 at five years, however when removing the revision for presumed infection, which was arguably a random event, this was no longer the case. The absolute cost difference had to be less than £240 to be cost-effective, which could be achieved by reducing the perioperative costs of rUKA or if there were increased revision costs associated with mUKA with longer follow-up. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(11):889–898

Aims. We compared decompression alone to decompression with fusion surgery for lumbar spinal stenosis, with or without degenerative spondylolisthesis (DS). The aim was to evaluate if five-year outcomes differed between the groups. The two-year results from the same trial revealed no differences. Methods. The Swedish Spinal Stenosis Study was a multicentre randomized controlled trial with recruitment from September 2006 to February 2012. A total of 247 patients with one- or two-level central lumbar spinal stenosis, stratified by the presence of DS, were randomized to decompression alone or decompression with fusion. The five-year Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) was the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes were the EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D), visual analogue scales for back and leg pain, and patient-reported satisfaction, decreased pain, and increased walking distance. The reoperation rate was recorded. Results. Five-year follow-up was completed by 213 (95%) of the eligible patients (mean age 67 years; 155 female (67%)). After five years, ODI was similar irrespective of treatment, with a mean of 25 (SD 18) for decompression alone and 28 (SD 22) for decompression with fusion (p = 0.226). Mean EQ-5D was higher for decompression alone than for fusion (0.69 (SD 0.28) vs 0.59 (SD 0.34); p = 0.027). In the no-DS subset, fewer patients reported decreased leg pain after fusion (58%) than with decompression alone (80%) (relative risk (RR) 0.71 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.53 to 0.97). The frequency of subsequent spinal surgery was 24% for decompression with fusion and 22% for decompression alone (RR 1.1 (95% CI 0.69 to 1.8)). Conclusion. Adding fusion to decompression in spinal stenosis surgery, with or without spondylolisthesis, does not improve the five-year ODI, which is consistent with our two-year report. Three secondary outcomes that did not differ at two years favoured decompression alone at five years. Our results support decompression alone as the preferred method for operating on spinal stenosis. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(7):705–712

Aims. This study reports mid-term outcomes after periacetabular osteotomy (PAO) exclusively in a borderline hip dysplasia (BHD) population to provide a contrast to published outcomes for arthroscopic surgery of the hip in BHD. Methods. We identified 42 hips in 40 patients treated between January 2009 and January 2016 with BHD defined as a lateral centre-edge angle (LCEA) of ≥ 18° but < 25°. A minimum five-year follow-up was available. Patient-reported outcomes (PROMs) including Tegner score, subjective hip value (SHV), modified Harris Hip Score (mHHS), and Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) were assessed. The following morphological parameters were evaluated: LCEA, acetabular index (AI), α angle, Tönnis staging, acetabular retroversion, femoral version, femoroepiphyseal acetabular roof index (FEAR), iliocapsularis to rectus femoris ratio (IC/RF), and labral and ligamentum teres (LT) pathology. Results. The mean follow-up was 96 months (67 to 139). The SHV, mHHS, WOMAC, and Tegner scores significantly improved (p < 0.001) at last follow-up. According to SHV and mHHS, there were three hips (7%) with poor results (SHV < 70), three (7%) with a fair score (70 to 79), eight (19%) with good results (80 to 89), and 28 (67%) who scored excellent (> 90) at the last follow-up. There were 11 subsequent operations: nine implant removals due to local irritation, one resection of postoperative heterotopic ossification, and one hip arthroscopy for intra-articular adhesions. No hips were converted to total hip arthroplasty at last follow-up. The presence of preoperative labral lesions or LT lesions did not influence any PROMs at last follow-up. From the three hips that had poor PROMs, two have developed severe osteoarthritis (> Tönnis II), presumably due to surgical overcorrection (postoperative AI < -10°). Conclusion. PAO is reliable in treating BHD with favourable mid-term outcomes. Concomitant LT and labral lesions did not negatively influence outcomes in our cohort. Technical accuracy with avoidance of overcorrection is essential in achieving successful outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(7):735–742

Aims. The objective of this systematic review was to describe trapeziectomy outcomes and complications in the context of osteoarthritis of the base of the thumb after a five-year minimum follow-up. Methods. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines were used to guide study design, and 267 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility. After exclusion criteria application, 22 studies were included, involving 728 patients and 823 trapeziectomies. Outcomes included pre- and postoperative clinical and radiological characteristics. Complications and revisions were recorded. Results. All the studies reported good results regarding pain and range of motion at the last follow-up of 8.3 years (5 to 22); the mean satisfaction rate was 91% (84% to 100%). It was difficult to assess the impact on metacarpophalangeal joint motion in extension with contrary results. The key pinch returned to its preoperative values, whereas tip pinch showed a modest improvement (+14%), with a mild improvement found in grip strength (+25%) at the last follow-up. The mean progressive trapezial collapse was 48% (0% to 85%) and was not correlated with pain, grip strength, or satisfaction. The most represented complications were linked to tendons or nerves affected during additional procedures to stabilize the joint (11.6%; n = 56). Mechanical complications included symptomatic scapho-M1 impingement (3.1%; n = 15/580), leading to nine surgical revisions out of 581 trapeziectomies. Meta-analysis was not possible due to study heterogeneity and limited data. Conclusion. After a minimum five-year follow-up, trapeziectomy achieved high patient satisfaction and pain relief. However, strength seemed to be deteriorating with detrimental consequences, but this did not correlate with trapezial collapse. The issues related to underestimating mechanical complications and varying degrees of success should be highlighted in the information given to patients. Evidence-based analyses should help the surgeon in their decision-making. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(3):141–149

Aims. Tibial plateau fractures are serious injuries about the knee that have the potential to affect patients’ long-term function. To our knowledge, this is the first study to use patient-reported outcomes (PROs) with a musculoskeletal focus to assess the long-term outcome, as compared to a short-term outcome baseline, of tibial plateau fractures treated using modern techniques. Methods. In total, 102 patients who sustained a displaced tibial plateau fracture and underwent operative repair by one of three orthopaedic traumatologists at a large, academic medical centre and had a minimum of five-year follow-up were identified. Breakdown of patients by Schatzker classification is as follows: two (1.9%) Schatzker I, 54 (50.9%) Schatzker II, two (1.9%) Schatzker III, 13 (12.3%) Schatzker IV, nine (8.5%) Schatzker V, and 26 (24.5%) Schatzker VI. Follow-up data obtained included: Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) or Numeric Rating Scale (NRS) pain scores, Short Musculoskeletal Functional Assessment (SMFA), and knee range of movement (ROM). Data at latest follow-up were then compared to 12-month data using a paired t-test. Results. Patient-reported functional outcomes as assessed by overall SMFA were statistically significantly improved at five years (p < 0.001) compared with one-year data from the same patients. Patients additionally reported an improvement in the Standardized Mobility Index (p < 0.001), Standardized Emotional Index (p < 0.001), as well as improvement in Standardized Bothersome Index (p = 0.003) between the first year and latest follow-up. Patient-reported pain and knee ROM were similar at five years to their one-year follow-up. In total, 15 of the patients had undergone subsequent orthopaedic surgery for their knees at the time of most recent follow-up. Of note, only one patient had undergone knee arthroplasty following plateau fixation related to post-traumatic osteoarthritis (OA). Conclusion. Knee pain following tibial plateau fracture stabilizes at one year. However, PROs continue to improve beyond one year following tibial plateau fracture, at least in a statistical sense, if not also clinically. Patients displayed statistical improvement across nearly all SMFA index scores at their minimum five-year follow-up compared with their one-year follow-up. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(5):632–637

Aims. The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic value of the modified three-group Stulberg classification, which is based on the sphericity of the femoral head, in patients with Perthes’ disease. Methods. A total of 88 patients were followed from the time of diagnosis until a mean follow-up of 21 years. Anteroposterior pelvic and frog-leg lateral radiographs were obtained at diagnosis and at follow-up of one, five, and 21 years. At the five- and 21-year follow-up, the femoral heads were classified using a modified three-group Stulberg classification (round, ovoid, or flat femoral head). Further radiological endpoints at long-term follow-up were osteoarthritis (OA) of the hip and the requirement for total hip arthroplasty (THA). Results. There were 71 males (81%) and 17 females. A total of 13 patients had bilateral Perthes’ disease; thus 101 hips were analyzed. At five-year follow-up, 37 hips were round, 38 ovoid, and 26 flat. At that time, 66 hips (65%) were healed and 91 (90%) were skeletally immature. At long-term follow-up, when the mean age of the patients was 28 years (24 to 34), 20 hips had an unsatisfactory outcome (seven had OA and 13 had required THA). There was a strongly significant association between the modified Stulberg classification applied atfive-year follow-up and an unsatisfactory outcome at long-term follow-up (p < 0.001). Between the five- and 21-year follow-up, 67 hips (76%) stayed in their respective modified Stulberg group, indicating a strongly significant association between the Stulberg classifications at these follow-ups (p < 0.001). Conclusion. The modified Stulberg classification is a strong predictor of long-term radiological outcome in patients with Perthes’ disease. It can be applied at the healing stage, which is usually reached five years after the diagnosis is made and before skeletal maturity. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(12):1815–1820