Aims. The primary aim of this study was to assess whether the postoperative Oxford Knee Score (OKS) demonstrated a ceiling effect at one and/or two years after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The secondary aim was to identify preoperative independent predictors for patients that achieved a ceiling score after TKA. Methods. A retrospective cohort of 5,857 patients undergoing a primary TKA were identified from an established arthroplasty database. Patient demographics, body mass index (BMI), OKS, and EuroQoL five-dimension (EQ-5D) general health scores were collected preoperatively and at one and two years postoperatively. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent preoperative predictors of patients achieving postoperative ceiling scores. Receiver operating characteristic curve was used to identify a preoperative OKS that predicted a postoperative ceiling score. Results. The ceiling effect was 4.6% (n = 272) at one year which increased significantly (odds ratio (OR) 40.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) 30.4 to 53.3; p < 0.001) to 6.2% (n = 363) at two years, when defined as those with a maximal score of 48 points. However, when the ceiling effect was defined as an OKS of 44 points or more, this increased to 26.3% (n = 1,540) at one year and further to 29.8% (n = 1,748) at two years (OR 21.6, 95% CI 18.7 to 25.1; p < 0.001). A preoperative OKS of 23 or more and 22 or more were predictive of achieving a postoperative ceiling OKS at one and two years when defined as a maximal score or a score of 44 or more, respectively. Conclusion. The postoperative OKS demonstrated a small ceiling effect when defined by a maximal score, but when defined by a postoperative OKS of 44 or more the ceiling effect was moderate and failed to meet standards. The preoperative OKS was an independent predictor of achieving a ceiling score. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(11):1519–1526

Aims. To compare rates of serious adverse events in patients undergoing revision knee arthroplasty with consideration of the indication for revision (urgent versus elective indications), and compare these with primary arthroplasty and re-revision arthroplasty. Methods. Patients undergoing primary knee arthroplasty were identified in the national Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) between 1 April 1997 to 31 March 2017. Subsequent revision and re-revision arthroplasty procedures in the same patients and same knee were identified. The primary outcome was 90-day mortality and a logistic regression model was used to investigate factors associated with 90-day mortality and secondary adverse outcomes, including infection (undergoing surgery), pulmonary embolism, myocardial infarction, and stroke. Urgent indications for revision arthroplasty were defined as infection or fracture, and all other indications (e.g. loosening, instability, wear) were included in the elective indications cohort. Results. A total of 939,021 primary knee arthroplasty procedures were included (939,021 patients), of which 40,854 underwent subsequent revision arthroplasty, and 9,100 underwent re-revision arthroplasty. Revision surgery for elective indications was associated with a 90-day rate of mortality of 0.44% (135/30,826; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.37 to 0.52) which was comparable to primary knee arthroplasty (0.46%; 4,292/939,021; 95% CI 0.44 to 0.47). Revision arthroplasty for infection was associated with a much higher mortality of 2.04% (184/9037; 95% CI 1.75 to 2.35; odds ratio (OR) 3.54; 95% CI 2.81 to 4.46), as was revision for periprosthetic fracture at 5.25% (52/991; 95% CI 3.94 to 6.82; OR 6.23; 95% CI 4.39 to 8.85). Higher rates of pulmonary embolism, myocardial infarction, and stroke were also observed in the infection and fracture cohort. Conclusion. Patients undergoing revision arthroplasty for urgent indications (infection or fracture) are at higher risk of mortality and serious adverse events in comparison to primary knee arthroplasty and revision arthroplasty for elective indications. These findings will be important for patient consent and shared decision-making and should inform service design for this patient cohort. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(10):1578–1585

Aims. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for recurrent instability of the shoulder and assess the ability to return to sport in patients with engaging Hill-Sachs lesions treated with arthroscopic Bankart repair and Hill-Sachs remplissage (ABR-HSR). Methods. This retrospective study included 133 consecutive patients with a mean age of 30 years (14 to 69) who underwent ABR-HSR; 103 (77%) practiced sports before the instability of the shoulder. All had large/deep, engaging Hill-Sachs lesions (Calandra III). Patients were divided into two groups: A (n = 102) with minimal or no (< 10%) glenoid bone loss, and B (n = 31) with subcritical (10% to 20%) glenoid loss. A total of 19 patients (14%) had undergone a previous stabilization, which failed. The primary endpoint was recurrent instability, with a secondary outcome of the ability to return to sport. Results. At a mean follow-up of four years (1.0 to 8.25), ten patients (7.5%) had recurrent instability. Patients in group B had a significantly higher recurrence rate than those in group A (p = 0.001). Using a multivariate logistic regression, the presence of glenoid erosion of > 10% (odds ratio (OR) = 35.13 (95% confidence interval (CI) 8 to 149); p = 0.001) and age < 23 years (OR = 0.89 (0.79 to 0.99); p = 0.038) were associated with a higher risk of recurrent instability. A total of 80 patients (78%) could return to sport, but only 11 athletes (65%) who practiced high-risk (collision or contact-overhead) sports. All seven shoulders which were revised using a Latarjet procedure were stable at a mean final follow-up of 36 months (11 to 57) and returned to sports at the same level. Conclusion. Patients with subcritical glenoid bone loss (> 10%) and younger age (≤ 23 years) are at risk of failure and reoperation after ABR-HSR. Furthermore, following this procedure, one-third of athletes practicing high-risk sports are unable to return at their pre-instability level, despite having a stable shoulder. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(4):718–724

Aims. The aim of the present study was to answer the question whether curve morphology and location have an influence on rigid conservative treatment in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Methods. We retrospectively analyzed AIS in 127 patients with single and double curves who had been treated with a Chêneau brace and physiotherapeutic specific exercises (B-PSE). The inclusion criteria were the presence of structural major curves ≥ 20° and < 50° (Risser stage 0 to 2) at the time when B-PSE was initiated. The patients were divided into two groups according to the outcome of treatment: failure (curve progression to ≥ 45° or surgery) and success (curve progression < 45° and no surgery). The main curve type (MCT), curve magnitude, and length (overall, above and below the apex), apical rotation, initial curve correction, flexibility, and derotation by the brace were compared between the two groups. Results. In univariate analysis treatment failure depended significantly on: 1) MCT (p = 0.008); 2) the apical rotation of the major curve before (p = 0.007) and during brace treatment (p < 0.001); 3) the initial and in-brace Cobb angles of the major (p = 0.001 and p < 0.001, respectively) and minor curves (p = 0.015 and p = 0.002); 4) major curve flexibility (p = 0.005) and the in-brace curve correction rates (major p = 0.008, minor p = 0.034); and 5) the length of the major curve (LoC) above (p < 0.001) and below (p = 0.002) the apex. Furthermore, MCT (p = 0.043, p = 0.129, and p = 0.017 in MCT comparisons), LoC (upper length p = 0.003, lower length p = 0.005), and in-brace Cobb angles (major p = 0.002, minor p = 0.027) were significant in binary logistic regression analysis. Conclusion. Curve size, location, and morphology were found to influence the outcome of rigid conservative treatment of AIS. These findings may improve future brace design and patient selection for conservative treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(2):373–381

Aims. To analyze the potential role of synovial fluid peptidase activity as a measure of disease burden and predictive biomarker of progression in knee osteoarthritis (KOA). Methods. A cross-sectional study of 39 patients (women 71.8%, men 28.2%; mean age of 72.03 years (SD 1.15) with advanced KOA (Ahlbäck grade ≥ 3 and clinical indications for arthrocentesis) recruited through the (Orthopaedic Department at the Complejo Asistencial Universitario de León, Spain (CAULE)), measuring synovial fluid levels of puromycin-sensitive aminopeptidase (PSA), neutral aminopeptidase (NAP), aminopeptidase B (APB), prolyl endopeptidase (PEP), aspartate aminopeptidase (ASP), glutamyl aminopeptidase (GLU) and pyroglutamyl aminopeptidase (PGAP). Results. Synovial fluid peptidase activity varied significantly as a function of clinical signs, with differences in levels of PEP (p = 0.020), ASP (p < 0.001), and PGAP (p = 0. 003) associated with knee locking, PEP (p = 0.006), ASP (p = 0.001), GLU (p = 0.037), and PGAP (p = 0.000) with knee failure, and PEP (p = 0.006), ASP (p = 0.001), GLU (p = 0.037), and PGAP (p < 0.001) with knee effusion. Further, patients with the greatest functional impairment had significantly higher levels of APB (p = 0.005), PEP (p = 0.005), ASP (p = 0.006), GLU (p = 0.020), and PGAP (p < 0.001) activity, though not of NAP or PSA, indicating local alterations in the renin-angiotensin system. A binary logistic regression model showed that PSA was protective (p = 0.005; Exp (B) 0.949), whereas PEP (p = 0.005) and GLU were risk factors (p = 0.012). Conclusion. These results suggest synovial fluid peptidase activity could play a role as a measure of disease burden and predictive biomarker of progression in KOA. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2020;9(11):789–797

Aims. Although total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is a highly successful procedure, about 20% of patients remain dissatisfied postoperatively. This proportion is derived from dichotomous models of the assessment of surgical success or failure, which may not reflect the spectrum of outcomes. The aim of this study was to explore differing responses to surgery, and assess whether there are distinct groups of patients with differing patterns of outcome. Methods. This was a secondary analysis of a UK multicentre TKA longitudinal cohort study. We used a group-based trajectory modelling analysis of Oxford Knee Score (OKS) in the first year following surgery with longitudinal data involving five different timepoints and multiple predictor variables. Associations between the derived trajectory groups and categorical baseline variables were assessed, and predictors of trajectory group membership were identified using Poisson regression and multinomial logistic regression, as appropriate. The final model was adjusted for sociodemographic factors (age, sex) and baseline OKS. Results. Data from 731 patients were available for analysis. Three distinct trajectories of outcome were identified: “poor” 14.0%, “modest” 39.1%, and “good” 46.9%. The predicted probability of membership for patients assigned to each trajectory group was high (0.89 to 0.93). Preoperative mental, physical health, and psychosocial factors determined which trajectory is likely to be followed. Poor responders were characterized by a comparatively small number of factors, preoperative expectations of pain and limitations, coping strategies, and a lower baseline physical health status, while the good responders were characterized by a combination of clinical, psychosocial, mental health, and quality of life factors. Conclusion. We identified three distinct response trajectories in patients undergoing TKA. Controlling for baseline score, age, and sex, psychosocial factors such as expectations of pain and limited function and poor coping strategies differentiated the trajectory groups, suggesting a role for preoperative psychosocial support in optimizing the clinical outcome. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(6):1096–1102

Aims. The purpose of this study was to identify the changes in untreated long head of the biceps brachii tendon (LHBT) after a rotator cuff tear and to evaluate the factors related to the changes. Methods. A cohort of 162 patients who underwent isolated supraspinatus with the preservation of LHBT was enrolled and evaluated. The cross-sectional area (CSA) of the LHBT on MRI was measured in the bicipital groove, and preoperative to postoperative difference was calculated at least 12 months postoperatively. Second, postoperative changes in the LHBT including intratendinous signal change, rupture, dislocation, or superior labral lesions were evaluated with seeking of factors that were correlated with the changes or newly developed lesions after rotator cuff repair. Results. The postoperative CSA (12.5 mm. 2. (SD 8.3) was significantly larger than preoperative CSA (11.5 mm. 2. (SD 7.5); p = 0.005). In total, 32 patients (19.8%) showed morphological changes in the untreated LHBT 24 months after rotator cuff repair. Univariate regression analysis revealed that the factor chiefly related to the change in LHBT status was an eccentric LHBT position within the groove found on preoperative MRI (p = 0.011). Multivariate analysis using logistic regression also revealed that an eccentric LHBT position was a factor related to postoperative change in untreated LHBTs (p = 0.011). Conclusion. The CSA of the LHBT inside the biceps groove increased after rotator cuff repair. The preoperative presence of an eccentrically positioned LHBT was associated with further changes of the tendon itself after rotator cuff repair. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(9):1194–1199

Aims. Hospital case volume is shown to be associated with postoperative outcomes in various types of surgery. However, conflicting results of volume-outcome relationship have been reported in hip fracture surgery. This retrospective cohort study aimed to evaluate the association between hospital case volume and postoperative outcomes in patients who had hip fracture surgery. We hypothesized that higher case volume would be associated with lower risk of in-hospital and one-year mortality after hip fracture surgery. Methods. Data for all patients who underwent surgery for hip fracture from January 2008 to December 2016 were extracted from the Korean National Healthcare Insurance Service database. According to mean annual case volume of surgery for hip fracture, hospitals were classified into very low (< 30 cases/year), low (30 to 50 cases/year), intermediate (50 to 100 cases/year), high (100 to 150 cases/year), or very high (> 150 cases/year) groups. The association between hospital case volume and in-hospital mortality or one-year mortality was assessed using the logistic regression model to adjust for age, sex, type of fracture, type of anaesthesia, transfusion, comorbidities, and year of surgery. Results. Between January 2008 and December 2016, 269,535 patients underwent hip fracture surgery in 1,567 hospitals in Korea. Compared to hospitals with very high volume, in-hospital mortality rates were significantly higher in those with high volume (odds ratio (OR) 1.10, 95% confidence interval ((CI) 1.02 to 1.17, p = 0.011), low volume (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.32, p < 0.001), and very low volume (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.34, p < 0.001). Similarly, hospitals with lower case volume showed higher one-year mortality rates compared to hospitals with very high case volume (low volume group, OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.19, p < 0.001; very low volume group, OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.14, p < 0.001). Conclusion. Higher hospital case volume of hip fracture surgery was associated with lower in-hospital mortality and one-year mortality in a dose-response fashion. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(10):1384–1391

Aims. Rates of readmission and reoperation following primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) are under scrutiny due to new payment models, which penalize these negative outcomes. Some risk factors are more modifiable than others, and some conditions considered modifiable such as obesity may not be as modifiable in the setting of advanced arthritis as many propose. We sought to determine whether controlling for hypoalbuminaemia would mitigate the effect that prior authors had identified in patients with obesity. Methods. We reviewed the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database for the period of January 2008 to December 2016 to evaluate the rates of reoperation and readmission within 30 days following primary TKA. Multivariate logistic regression modelling controlled for preoperative albumin, age, sex, and comorbidity status. Results. Readmission rates only differed significantly between patients with Normal Weight and Obesity Class II, with a decreased rate of readmission in this group (odds ratio (OR) 0.82; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71 to 0.96; p = 0.010). The only group demonstrating association with increased risk of reoperation within 30 days was the Obesity Class III group (OR 1.38; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.82; p = 0.022). Hypoalbuminaemia (preoperative albumin < 35 g/L) was significantly associated with readmission (OR 1.62; 95% CI 1.41 to 1.86; p < 0.001) and reoperation (OR 1.52; 95% CI 1.18 to 1.96; p = 0.001) within 30 days. Conclusion. In this study, hypoalbuminaemia appears to be a more significant risk factor for readmission and reoperation than even the highest obesity categories. Future studies may assess whether preoperative albumin restoration or weight loss may improve outcomes for patients with hypoalbuminaemia. The implications of this study may allow surgeons to discuss risk of surgery with obese patients planning to undergo primary TKA procedures if other comorbidities are adequately controlled. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(6 Supple A):31–35

Aims. To investigate factors that contribute to patient decisions regarding attendance for arthroplasty during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods. A postal questionnaire was distributed to patients on the waiting list for hip or knee arthroplasty in a single tertiary centre within the UK. Patient factors that may have influenced the decision to attend for arthroplasty, global quality of life (QoL) (EuroQol five-dimension three-level (EQ-5D-3L)), and joint-specific QoL (Oxford Hip or Knee Score) were assessed. Patients were asked at which ‘COVID-alert’ level they would be willing to attend an NHS and a “COVID-light” hospital for arthroplasty. Independent predictors were assessed using multivariate logistic regression. Results. Of 540 distributed questionnaires, 400 (74.1%; 236 awaiting hip arthroplasty, 164 awaiting knee arthroplasty) complete responses were received and included. Less than half (48.2%) were willing to attend for hip or knee arthroplasty while a UK COVID-19 epidemic was in circulation (COVID-alert levels 3 to 5). Patients with worse joint-specific QoL had a preference to proceed with surgery at COVID-alert levels 3 to 5 compared to levels 1 and 2 (hip arthroplasty odds ratio (OR) 1.54 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.45 to 1.63); knee arthroplasty OR 1.16 (1.07 to 1.26)). The odds of patients with worse joint-specific QoL being willing to attend for surgery at COVID-alert levels 3 to 5 increased further if surgery in a private, “COVID-light” hospital was available (hip arthroplasty OR 3.50 (95% CI 3.26 to 3.71); knee arthroplasty OR 1.41 (95% CI 1.29 to 1.53). Conclusion. Patient decisions surrounding elective surgery have been influenced by the global COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the importance of patient involvement in ensuring optimized provision of elective surgery during these challenging times. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(4):261–270

Aims. Dual mobility (DM) bearings are an attractive treatment option to obtain hip stability during challenging primary and revision total hip arthroplasty (THA) cases. The purpose of this study was to analyze data submitted to the American Joint Replacement Registry (AJRR) to characterize utilization trends of DM bearings in the USA. Methods. All primary and revision THA procedures reported to AJRR from 2012 to 2018 were analyzed. Patients of all ages were included and subdivided into DM and traditional bearing surface cohorts. Patient demographics, geographical region, hospital size, and teaching affiliation were assessed. Associations were determined by chi-squared analysis and logistic regression was performed to assess outcome variables. Results. A total of 406,900 primary and 34,745 revision THAs were identified, of which 35,455 (8.7%) and 8,031 (23.1%) received DM implants respectively. For primary THA, DM usage increased from 6.7% in 2012 to 12.0% in 2018. Among revision THA, DM use increased from 19.5% in 2012 to 30.6% in 2018. Patients < 50 years of age had the highest rates of DM implantation in every year examined. For each year of increase in age, there was a 0.4% decrease in the rate of DM utilization (odds ratio (OR) 0.996 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.995 to 0.997); p < 0.001). Females were more likely to receive a DM implant compared to males (OR 1.077 (95% CI 1.054 to 1.100); p < 0.001). Major teaching institutions and smaller hospitals were associated with higher rates of utilization. DM articulations were used more commonly for dysplasia compared with osteoarthritis (OR 2.448 (95% CI 2.032 to 2.949); p < 0.001) during primary THA and for instability (OR 3.130 (95% CI 2.751 to 3.562) vs poly-wear; p < 0.001) in the revision setting. Conclusion. DM articulations showed a marked increase in utilization during the period examined. Younger patient age, female sex, and hospital characteristics such as teaching status, smaller size, and geographical location were associated with increased utilization. DM articulations were used more frequently for primary THA in patients with dysplasia and for revision THA in patients being treated for instability. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(7 Supple B):27–32

Aims. This study aimed to determine the minimal detectable change (MDC), minimal clinically important difference (MCID), and substantial clinical benefit (SCB) under distribution- and anchor-based methods for the Mayo Elbow Performance Index (MEPI) and range of movement (ROM) after open elbow arthrolysis (OEA). We also assessed the proportion of patients who achieved MCID and SCB; and identified the factors associated with achieving MCID. Methods. A cohort of 265 patients treated by OEA were included. The MEPI and ROM were evaluated at baseline and at two-year follow-up. Distribution-based MDC was calculated with confidence intervals (CIs) reflecting 80% (MDC 80), 90% (MDC 90), and 95% (MDC 95) certainty, and MCID with changes from baseline to follow-up. Anchor-based MCID (anchored to somewhat satisfied) and SCB (very satisfied) were calculated using a five-level Likert satisfaction scale. Multivariate logistic regression of factors affecting MCID achievement was performed. Results. The MDC increased substantially based on selected CIs (MDC 80, MDC 90, and MDC 95), ranging from 5.0 to 7.6 points for the MEPI, and from 8.2° to 12.5° for ROM. The MCID of the MEPI were 8.3 points under distribution-based and 12.2 points under anchor-based methods; distribution- and anchor-based MCID of ROM were 14.1° and 25.0°. The SCB of the MEPI and ROM were 17.3 points and 43.4°, respectively. The proportion of the patients who attained anchor-based MCID for the MEPI and ROM were 74.0% and 94.7%, respectively; furthermore, 64.2% and 86.8% attained SCB. Non-dominant arm (p = 0.022), higher preoperative MEPI rating (p < 0.001), and postoperative visual analogue scale pain score (p < 0.001) were independent predictors of not achieving MCID for the MEPI, while atraumatic causes (p = 0.040) and higher preoperative ROM (p = 0.005) were independent risk factors for ROM. Conclusion. In patients undergoing OEA, the MCID for the increased MEPI is 12.2 points and 25° increased ROM. The SCB is 17.3 points and 43.3°, respectively. Future studies using the MEPI and ROM to assess OEA outcomes should report not only statistical significance but also clinical importance. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(2):366–372

Aims. Although internal hemipelvectomy is associated with a high incidence of morbidity, especially wound complications, few studies have examined rates of wound complications in these patients or have identified factors associated with the consequences. The present study aimed to: 1) determine the rate of wound and other complications requiring surgery after internal hemipelvectomy; and 2) identify factors that affect the rate of wound complications and can be used to stratify patients by risk of wound complications. Methods. The medical records of 123 patients undergoing internal hemipelvectomy were retrospectively reviewed, with a focus on both overall complications and wound complications. Logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the association between host, tumour, and surgical factors and rates of postoperative wound complications. Results. The overall rate of postoperative complications requiring surgery was 49.6%. Wound complications were observed in 34.1% of patients, hardware-related complications in 13.2%, graft-related complications in 9.1%, and local recurrence in 5.7%. On multivariate analysis, extrapelvic tumour extension (odds ratio (OR) 23.28; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.97 to 274.67; p = 0.012), both intra- and extrapelvic tumour extension (OR 46.48; 95% CI, 3.50 to 617.77; p = 0.004), blood transfusion ≥ 20 units (OR 50.28; 95% CI, 1.63 to 1550.32; p = 0.025), vascular sacrifice of the internal iliac artery (OR 64.56; 95% CI, 6.33 to 658.43; p < 0.001), and use of a structural allograft (OR, 6.57; 95% CI, 1.70 to 25.34; p = 0.001) were significantly associated with postoperative wound complications. Conclusion. Internal hemipelvectomy is associated with high rates of morbidity, especially wound complications. Several host, tumour, and surgical variables are associated with wound complications. The ability to stratify patients by risk of wound complications can help refine surgical and wound-healing planning and may lead to better outcomes in patients undergoing internal hemipelvectomy. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(3):280–284

Aims. To develop and externally validate a parsimonious statistical prediction model of 90-day mortality after elective total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to provide a web calculator for clinical usage. Methods. We included 53,099 patients with cemented THA due to osteoarthritis from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Registry for model derivation and internal validation, as well as 125,428 patients from England and Wales recorded in the National Joint Register for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man, and the States of Guernsey (NJR) for external model validation. A model was developed using a bootstrap ranking procedure with a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression model combined with piecewise linear regression. Discriminative ability was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration belt plots were used to assess model calibration. Results. A main effects model combining age, sex, American Society for Anesthesiologists (ASA) class, the presence of cancer, diseases of the central nervous system, kidney disease, and diagnosed obesity had good discrimination, both internally (AUC = 0.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75 to 0.81) and externally (AUC = 0.75, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.76). This model was superior to traditional models based on the Charlson (AUC = 0.66, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.70) and Elixhauser (AUC = 0.64, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.68) comorbidity indices. The model was well calibrated for predicted probabilities up to 5%. Conclusion. We developed a parsimonious model that may facilitate individualized risk assessment prior to one of the most common surgical interventions. We have published a web calculator to aid clinical decision-making. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(3):469–478

Aims. This study evaluates risk factors influencing fracture characteristics for postoperative periprosthetic femoral fractures (PFFs) around cemented stems in total hip arthroplasty. Methods. Data were collected for PFF patients admitted to eight UK centres between 25 May 2006 and 1 March 2020. Radiographs were assessed for Unified Classification System (UCS) grade and AO/OTA type. Statistical comparisons investigated relationships by age, gender, and stem fixation philosophy (polished taper-slip (PTS) vs composite beam (CB)). The effect of multiple variables was estimated using multinomial logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Surgical treatment (revision vs fixation) was compared by UCS grade and AO/OTA type. Results. A total of 584 cases were included. Median age was 79.1 years (interquartile range 72.0 to 86.0), 312 (53.6%) patients were female, and 495 (85.1%) stems were PTS. The commonest UCS grade was type B1 (278, 47.6%). The most common AO/OTA type was spiral (352, 60.3%). Metaphyseal split fractures occurred only with PTS stems with an incidence of 10.1%. Male sex was associated with a five-fold reduction in odds of a type C fracture (OR 0.22 (95% CI 0.12 to 0.41); p < 0.001) compared to a type B fracture. CB stems were associated with significantly increased odds of transverse fracture (OR 9.51 (95% CI 3.72 to 24.34); p < 0.001) and wedge fracture (OR 3.72 (95% CI 1.16 to 11.95); p = 0.027) compared to PTS stems. Both UCS grade and AO/OTA type differed significantly (p < 0.001 and p = 0.001, respectively) between the revision and fixation groups but a similar proportion of B1 fractures underwent revision compared to fixation (45.3% vs 50.6%). Conclusion. The commonest fracture types are B1 and spiral fractures. PTS stems are exclusively associated with metaphyseal split fractures, but their incidence is low. Males have lower odds of UCS grade C fractures compared to females. CB stems have higher odds of bending type fractures (transverse and wedge) compared to PTS stems. There is considerable variation in practice when treating B1 fractures around cemented stems. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(7):466–475

We examined the reliability of radiological findings in predicting segmental instability in 112 patients (56 men, 56 women) with a mean age of 66.5 years (27 to 84) who had degenerative disease of the lumbar spine. They underwent intra-operative biomechanical evaluation using a new measurement system. Biomechanical instability was defined as a segment with a neutral zone > 2 mm/N. Risk factor analysis to predict instability was performed on radiographs (range of segmental movement, disc height), MRI (Thompson grade, Modic type), and on the axial CT appearance of the facet (type, opening, vacuum and the presence of osteophytes, subchondral erosion, cysts and sclerosis) using multivariate logistic regression analysis with a forward stepwise procedure. The facet type was classified as sagittally orientated, coronally orientated, anisotropic or wrapped. Stepwise multivariate regression analysis revealed that facet opening was the strongest predictor for instability (odds ratio 5.022, p = 0.009) followed by spondylolisthesis, MRI grade and subchondral sclerosis. Forward stepwise multivariate logistic regression indicated that spondylolisthesis, MRI grade, facet opening and subchondral sclerosis of the facet were risk factors. Symptoms evaluated by the Short-Form 36 and visual analogue scale showed that patients with an unstable segment were in significantly more pain than those without. Furthermore, the surgical procedures determined using the intra-operative measurement system were effective, suggesting that segmental instability influences the symptoms of lumbar degenerative disease

Aims. Preoperative nasal Staphylococcus aureus screening and eradication reduces surgical site infections (SSIs) but its impact on reducing early prosthetic joint infection (PJI) remains controversial. This study aims to assess the effect of preoperative nasal S. aureus screening and eradication on the incidence of early PJI in general and S. aureus-induced early PJI. Methods. All primary total hip arthroplasties (THA) and total knee arthroplasties (TKA) performed from January 2006 to April 2018 were retrospectively reviewed for the incidence of early PJI. Demographic parameters, risk factors for PJI (American Society of Anaesthesiologists classification, body mass index, smoking status, and diabetes mellitus) and implant types were collected. A preoperative screening and eradication protocol for nasal colonization of S. aureus was introduced in October 2010. The incidence of early PJI was compared before and after the implementation of the protocol. Missing data were imputed via multiple imputation by chained equations. Inverse probability weighting was used to account for differences between patients in both groups. Weighted univariate logistic regression was used to evaluate the incidence of early PJI for both groups. Results. In total, 10,486 THAs and TKAs were performed in the research period. After exclusion, a cohort of 5,499 screened cases and 3,563 non-screened cases were available for analysis. Overall, no significant reduction in early PJI was found in the screened group (odds ratio (OR) 0.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.55 to 1.11; p = 0.173). However, the incidence of S. aureus-induced PJI was significantly reduced (OR 0.58, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.92; p = 0.027) in the screened group. Conclusion. A preoperative nasal S. aureus screening and eradication protocol did not significantly reduce the overall incidence of early PJI after THA or TKA. However, a decreased incidence of S. aureus-induced early PJI was established. These findings can help to establish better consensus around the value of these screening protocols. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(10):1341–1348

Aims. Significant correction of an adolescent idiopathic scoliosis in the coronal plane through a posterior approach is associated with hypokyphosis. Factors such as the magnitude of the preoperative coronal curve, the use of hooks, number of levels fused, preoperative kyphosis, screw density, and rod type have all been implicated. Maintaining the normal thoracic kyphosis is important as hypokyphosis is associated with proximal junctional failure (PJF) and early onset degeneration of the spine. The aim of this study was to determine if coronal correction per se was the most relevant factor in generating hypokyphosis. Methods. A total of 95 patients (87% female) with a median age of 14 years were included in our study. Pre- and postoperative radiographs were measured and the operative data including upper instrumented vertebra (UIV), lower instrumented vertebra (LIV), metal density, and thoracic flexibility noted. Further analysis of the post-surgical coronal outcome (group 1 < 60% correction and group 2 ≥ 60%) were studied for their association with the postoperative kyphosis in the sagittal plane using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Results. Of the 95 patients, 71.6% (68) had a thoracic correction of > 60%. Most (97.8%) had metal density < 80%, while thoracic flexibility > 50% was found in 30.5% (29). Preoperative hypokyphosis (< 20°) was present in 25.3%. A postoperative thoracic hypokyphosis was four times more likely to occur in patients with thoracic correction ≥ 60% (odds ratio (OR) 4.08; p = 0.005), after adjusting for confounding variables. This association was not affected by metal density, thoracic flexibility, LIV, UIV, age, or sex. Conclusion. Our study supports the ‘essential lordosis’ hypothesis of Roaf and Dickson, i.e. with a greater ability to translate the apical vertebra towards the midline, there is a commensurate lengthening of the anterior column due to the vertebral wedging. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(4):513–518

Aims. The practice of overlapping surgery has been increasing in the delivery of orthopaedic surgery, aiming to provide efficient, high-quality care. However, there are concerns about the safety of this practice. The purpose of this study was to examine the safety and efficacy of a model of partially overlapping surgery that we termed ‘swing room’ in the practice of primary total hip (THA) and knee arthroplasty (TKA). Methods. A retrospective review of prospectively collected data was carried out on patients who underwent primary THA and TKA between 2006 and 2017 in two academic centres. Cases were stratified as partially overlapping (swing room), in which the surgeon is in one operating room (OR) while the next patient is being prepared in another, or nonoverlapping surgery. The demographic details of the patients which were collected included operating time, length of stay (LOS), postoperative complications within six weeks of the procedure, unplanned hospital readmissions, and unplanned reoperations. Fisher's exact, Wilcoxon rank-sum tests, chi-squared tests, and logistic regression analysis were used for statistical analysis. Results. A total of 12,225 cases performed at our institution were included in the study, of which 10,596 (86.6%) were partially overlapping (swing room) and 1,629 (13.3%) were nonoverlapping. There was no significant difference in the mean age, sex, body mass index (BMI), side, and LOS between the two groups. The mean operating time was significantly shorter in the swing room group (58.2 minutes) compared with the nonoverlapping group (62.8 minutes; p < 0.001). There was no significant difference in the rates of complications, readmission and reoperations (p = 0.801 and p = 0.300, respectively) after adjusting for baseline American Society of Anesthesiologists scores. Conclusion. The new ‘swing room’ model yields similar short-term outcomes without an increase in complication rates compared with routine single OR surgery in patients undergoing primary THA or TKA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(7 Supple B):112–115

Aims. The aim of this study was to clarify the factors that predict the development of avascular necrosis (AVN) of the femoral head in children with a fracture of the femoral neck. Patients and Methods. We retrospectively reviewed 239 children with a mean age of 10.0 years (. sd. 3.9) who underwent surgical treatment for a femoral neck fracture. Risk factors were recorded, including age, sex, laterality, mechanism of injury, initial displacement, the type of fracture, the time to reduction, and the method and quality of reduction. AVN of the femoral head was assessed on radiographs. Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the independent risk factors for AVN. Chi-squared tests and Student’s t-tests were used for subgroup analyses to determine the risk factors for AVN. Results. We found that age (p = 0.006) and initial displacement (p = 0.001) were significant independent risk factors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis indicated that 12 years of age was the cut-off for increasing the rate of AVN. Severe initial displacement (p = 0.021) and poor quality of reduction (p = 0.022) significantly increased the rate of AVN in patients aged 12 years or greater, while in those aged less than 12 years, the rate of AVN significantly increased only with initial displacement (p = 0.048). A poor reduction significantly increased the rate of AVN in patients treated by closed reduction (p = 0.026); screw and plate fixation was preferable to cannulated screw or Kirschner wire (K-wire) fixation for decreasing the rate of AVN in patients treated by open reduction (p = 0.034). Conclusion. The rate of AVN increases with age, especially in patients aged 12 years or greater, and with the severity of displacement. In patients treated by closed reduction, anatomical reduction helps to decrease the rate of AVN, while in those treated by open reduction, screw and plate fixation was preferable to fixation using cannulated screws or K-wires. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1160–1167