Aims. Within the UK, around 70,000 patients suffer neck of femur (NOF) fractures annually. Patients presenting with this injury are often frail, leading to increased morbidity and a 30-day mortality rate of 6.1%. COVID-19 infection has a broad spectrum of clinical presentations with the elderly, and those with pre-existing comorbidities are at a higher risk of severe respiratory compromise and death. Further increased risk has been observed in the postoperative period. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of COVID-19 infection on the complication and mortality rates of NOF fracture patients. Methods. All NOF fracture patients presenting between March 2020 and May 2020 were included. Patients were divided into two subgroup: those with or without clinical and/or laboratory diagnosis of COVID-19. Data were collected on patient demographics, pattern of injury, complications, length of stay, and mortality. Results. Overall, 132 patients were included. Of these, 34.8% (n = 46) were diagnosed with COVID-19. Bacterial pneumonia was observed at a significantly higher rate in those patients with COVID-19 (56.5% vs 15.1%; p =< 0.000). Non respiratory complications such as acute kidney injury (30.4% vs 9.3%; p =0.002) and urinary tract infection (10.9% vs 3.5%; p =0.126) were also more common in those patients with COVID-19. Length of stay was increased by a median of 21.5 days in patients diagnosed with COVID-19 (p < 0.000). 30-day mortality was significantly higher in patients with COVID-19 (37.0%) when compared to those without (10.5%; p <0.000). Conclusion. This study has shown that patients with a neck of femur fracture have a high rate of mortality and complications such as bacterial pneumonia and acute kidney injury when diagnosed with COVID-19 within the perioperative period. We have demonstrated the high risk of in hospital transmission of COVID-19 and the association between the infection and an increased length of stay for the patients affected. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-11:669–675

Aims. Currently, the US Center for Medicaid and Medicare Services (CMS) has been testing bundled payments for revision total joint arthroplasty (TJA) through the Bundled Payment for Care Improvement (BPCI) programme. Under the BPCI, bundled payments for revision TJAs are defined on the basis of diagnosis-related groups (DRGs). However, these DRG-based bundled payment models may not be adequate to account appropriately for the varying case-complexity seen in revision TJAs. Methods. The 2008-2014 Medicare 5% Standard Analytical Files (SAF5) were used to identify patients undergoing revision TJA under DRG codes 466, 467, or 468. Generalized linear regression models were built to assess the independent marginal cost-impact of patient, procedural, and geographic characteristics on 90-day costs. Results. A total of 9,263 patients (DRG-466 = 838, DRG-467 = 4,573, and DRG-468 = 3,842) undergoing revision TJA from 2008 to 2014 were included in the study. Undergoing revision for a dislocation (+$1,221), periprosthetic fracture (+$4,454), and prosthetic joint infection (+$5,268) were associated with higher 90-day costs. Among comorbidities, malnutrition (+$10,927), chronic liver disease (+$3,894), congestive heart failure (+$3,292), anaemia (+$3,149), and coagulopathy (+$2,997) had the highest marginal cost-increase. The five US states with the highest 90-day costs were Alaska (+$14,751), Maryland (+$13,343), New York (+$7,428), Nevada (+$6,775), and California (+$6,731). Conclusion. Under the proposed DRG-based bundled payment methodology, surgeons would be reimbursed the same amount of money for revision TJAs, regardless of the indication (periprosthetic fracture, prosthetic joint infection, mechanical loosening) and/or patient complexity. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(7):959–964

Aims. The primary aim of this study was to identify independent predictors associated with nonunion and delayed union of tibial diaphyseal fractures treated with intramedullary nailing. The secondary aim was to assess the Radiological Union Scale for Tibial fractures (RUST) score as an early predictor of tibial fracture nonunion. Methods. A consecutive series of 647 patients who underwent intramedullary nailing for tibial diaphyseal fractures were identified from a trauma database. Demographic data, comorbidities, smoking status, alcohol consumption, use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), and steroid use were documented. Details regarding mechanism of injury, fracture classification, complications, and further surgery were recorded. Nonunion was defined as the requirement for revision surgery to achieve union. Delayed union was defined as a RUST score < 10 at six months postoperatively. Results. There were 41 nonunions (6.3%), of which 13 were infected (31.7%), and 77 delayed unions (11.9%). There were 127 open fractures (19.6%). Adjusting for confounding variables, NSAID use (odds ratio (OR) 3.50; p = 0.042), superficial infection (OR 3.00; p = 0.026), open fractures (OR 5.44; p < 0.001), and high-energy mechanism (OR 2.51; p = 0.040) were independently associated with nonunion. Smoking (OR 1.76; p = 0.034), open fracture (OR 2.82; p = 0.001), and high-energy mechanism (OR 1.81; p = 0.030) were independent predictors associated with delayed union. The RUST score at six-week follow-up was highly predictive of nonunion (sensitivity and specificity of 75%). Conclusion. NSAID use, high-energy mechanisms, open fractures, and superficial infection were independently associated with nonunion in patients with tibial diaphyseal fractures treated with intramedullary nailing. The six-week RUST score may be useful in identifying patients at risk of nonunion. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(4):227–235

Aims. The aim of this study was to determine the current incidence and epidemiology of humeral diaphyseal fractures. The secondary aim was to explore variation in patient and injury characteristics by fracture location within the humeral diaphysis. Methods. Over ten years (2008 to 2017), all adult patients (aged ≥ 16 years) sustaining an acute fracture of the humeral diaphysis managed at the study centre were retrospectively identified from a trauma database. Patient age, sex, medical/social background, injury mechanism, fracture classification, and associated injuries were recorded and analyzed. Results. A total of 900 fractures (typical 88.9%, n = 800/900; pathological 8.3%, n = 75/900; periprosthetic 2.8%, n = 25/900) were identified in 898 patients (mean age 57 years (16 to 97), 55.5% (n = 498/898) female). Overall fracture incidence was 12.6/100,000/year. For patients with a typical fracture (n = 798, mean age 56 years (16 to 96), 55.1% (n = 440/798) female), there was a bimodal distribution in men and unimodal distribution in older women (Type G). A fall from standing was the most common injury mechanism (72.6%, n = 581/800). The majority of fractures involved the middle-third of the diaphysis (47.6%, n = 381/800) followed by the proximal- (30.5%, n = 244/800) and distal-thirds (n = 175/800, 21.9%). In all, 18 injuries (2.3%) were open and a radial nerve palsy occurred in 6.7% (n = 53/795). Fractures involving the proximal- and middle-thirds were more likely to occur in older (p < 0.001), female patients (p < 0.001) with comorbidities (p < 0.001) after a fall from standing (p < 0.001). Proximal-third fractures were also more likely to occur in patients with alcohol excess (p = 0.003) and to be classified as AO-Orthopaedic Trauma Association type B or C injuries (p < 0.001). Conclusion. This study updates the incidence and epidemiology of humeral diaphyseal fractures. Important differences in patient and injury characteristics were observed based upon fracture location. Injuries involving the proximal- and middle-thirds of the humeral diaphysis should be considered as fragility fractures. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(11):1475–1483

Aims. To evaluate safety outcomes and patient satisfaction of the re-introduction of elective orthopaedic surgery on ‘green’ (non-COVID-19) sites during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods. A strategy consisting of phased relaxation of clinical comorbidity criteria was developed. Patients from the orthopaedic waiting list were selected according to these criteria and observed recommended preoperative isolation protocols. Surgery was performed at green sites (two local private hospitals) under the COVID-19 NHS contract. The first 100 consecutive patients that met the Phase 1 criteria and underwent surgery were included. In hospital and postoperative complications with specific enquiry as to development of COVID-19 symptoms or need and outcome for COVID-19 testing at 14 days and six weeks was recorded. Patient satisfaction was surveyed at 14 days postoperatively. Results. There were 54 females and 46 males (mean age 44 years, mean body mass index (BMI) 25.6 kg/m. 2. ). In all, 56 patients underwent major orthopaedic procedures. There were no exclusions. One patient had a postoperative positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test but had no typical symptoms of COVID-19 infection and no clinical sequelae. 99% of patients were satisfied with the process and 98% would recommend undergoing elective orthopaedic surgery in the study period. Conclusion. In an environment with appropriate infrastructure, patient selection, isolation, screening, and testing, elective orthopaedic surgery is safe during the COVID-19 pandemic, and associated with high patient satisfaction. Further follow-up is required to establish that safety is maintained as the clinical restrictions are eased with the phased approach described. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-8:450–456

Aims. Hospital case volume is shown to be associated with postoperative outcomes in various types of surgery. However, conflicting results of volume-outcome relationship have been reported in hip fracture surgery. This retrospective cohort study aimed to evaluate the association between hospital case volume and postoperative outcomes in patients who had hip fracture surgery. We hypothesized that higher case volume would be associated with lower risk of in-hospital and one-year mortality after hip fracture surgery. Methods. Data for all patients who underwent surgery for hip fracture from January 2008 to December 2016 were extracted from the Korean National Healthcare Insurance Service database. According to mean annual case volume of surgery for hip fracture, hospitals were classified into very low (< 30 cases/year), low (30 to 50 cases/year), intermediate (50 to 100 cases/year), high (100 to 150 cases/year), or very high (> 150 cases/year) groups. The association between hospital case volume and in-hospital mortality or one-year mortality was assessed using the logistic regression model to adjust for age, sex, type of fracture, type of anaesthesia, transfusion, comorbidities, and year of surgery. Results. Between January 2008 and December 2016, 269,535 patients underwent hip fracture surgery in 1,567 hospitals in Korea. Compared to hospitals with very high volume, in-hospital mortality rates were significantly higher in those with high volume (odds ratio (OR) 1.10, 95% confidence interval ((CI) 1.02 to 1.17, p = 0.011), low volume (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.32, p < 0.001), and very low volume (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.34, p < 0.001). Similarly, hospitals with lower case volume showed higher one-year mortality rates compared to hospitals with very high case volume (low volume group, OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.19, p < 0.001; very low volume group, OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.14, p < 0.001). Conclusion. Higher hospital case volume of hip fracture surgery was associated with lower in-hospital mortality and one-year mortality in a dose-response fashion. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(10):1384–1391

Aims. The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of the removal of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) from the Medicare Inpatient Only (IPO) list on our Bundled Payments for Care Improvement (BPCI) Initiative in 2018. Methods. We examined our institutional database to identify all Medicare patients who underwent primary TKA from 2017 to 2018. Hospital inpatient or outpatient status was cross-referenced with Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) claims data. Demographics, comorbidities, and outcomes were compared between patients classified as ‘outpatient’ and ‘inpatient’ TKA. Episode-of-care BPCI costs were then compared from 2017 to 2018. Results. Of the 2,135 primary TKA patients in 2018, 908 (43%) were classified as an outpatient and were excluded from BPCI. Inpatient classified patients had longer mean length of stay (1.9 (SD 1.4) vs 1.4 (SD 1.7) days, p < 0.001) and higher rates of discharge to rehabilitation (17% vs 3%, p < 0.001). Post-acute care costs increased when comparing the BPCI patients from 2017 to 2018, ($5,037 (SD $7,792) vs $5793 (SD $8,311), p = 0.010). The removal of TKA from the IPO list turned a net savings of $53,805 in 2017 into a loss of $219,747 in 2018 for our BPCI programme. Conclusions. Following the removal of TKA from the IPO list, nearly half of the patients at our institution were inappropriately classified as an outpatient. Our target price was increased and our institution realized a substantial loss in 2018 BPCI despite strong quality metrics. CMS should address its negative implications on bundled payment programmes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(6 Supple A):19–23

Aims. There are reports of a marked increase in perioperative mortality in patients admitted to hospital with a fractured hip during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK, USA, Spain, and Italy. Our study aims to describe the risk of mortality among patients with a fractured neck of femur in England during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods. We completed a multicentre cohort study across ten hospitals in England. Data were collected from 1 March 2020 to 6 April 2020, during which period the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic. Patients ≥ 60 years of age admitted with hip fracture and a minimum follow-up of 30 days were included for analysis. Primary outcome of interest was mortality at 30 days post-surgery or postadmission in nonoperative patients. Secondary outcomes included length of hospital stay and discharge destination. Results. In total, 404 patients were included for final analysis with a COVID-19 diagnosis being made in 114 (28.2%) patients. Overall, 30-day mortality stood at 14.4% (n = 58). The COVID-19 cohort experienced a mortality rate of 32.5% (37/114) compared to 7.2% (21/290) in the non-COVID cohort (p < 0.001). In adjusted analysis, 30-day mortality was greatest in patients who were confirmed to have COVID-19 (odds ratio (OR) 5.64, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.95 to 10.80; p < 0.001) with an adjusted excess risk of 20%, male sex (OR 2.69, 95% CI 1.37 to 5.29; p = 0.004) and in patients with ≥ two comorbidities (OR 4.68, CI 1.5 to 14.61; p = 0.008). Length of stay was also extended in the COVID-19 cohort, on average spending 17.6 days as an inpatient versus 12.04 days in the non-COVID-19 group (p < 0.001). Conclusion. This study demonstrates that patients who sustain a neck of femur fracture in combination with COVID-19 diagnosis have a significantly higher risk of mortality than would be normally expected. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-11:697–705

Aims. Failure of irrigation and debridement (I&D) for prosthetic joint infection (PJI) is influenced by numerous host, surgical, and pathogen-related factors. We aimed to develop and validate a practical, easy-to-use tool based on machine learning that may accurately predict outcome following I&D surgery taking into account the influence of numerous factors. Methods. This was an international, multicentre retrospective study of 1,174 revision total hip (THA) and knee arthroplasties (TKA) undergoing I&D for PJI between January 2005 and December 2017. PJI was defined using the Musculoskeletal Infection Society (MSIS) criteria. A total of 52 variables including demographics, comorbidities, and clinical and laboratory findings were evaluated using random forest machine learning analysis. The algorithm was then verified through cross-validation. Results. Of the 1,174 patients that were included in the study, 405 patients (34.5%) failed treatment. Using random forest analysis, an algorithm that provides the probability for failure for each specific patient was created. By order of importance, the ten most important variables associated with failure of I&D were serum CRP levels, positive blood cultures, indication for index arthroplasty other than osteoarthritis, not exchanging the modular components, use of immunosuppressive medication, late acute (haematogenous) infections, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus infection, overlying skin infection, polymicrobial infection, and older age. The algorithm had good discriminatory capability (area under the curve = 0.74). Cross-validation showed similar probabilities comparing predicted and observed failures indicating high accuracy of the model. Conclusion. This is the first study in the orthopaedic literature to use machine learning as a tool for predicting outcomes following I&D surgery. The developed algorithm provides the medical profession with a tool that can be employed in clinical decision-making and improve patient care. Future studies should aid in further validating this tool on additional cohorts. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(7 Supple B):11–19

Aims. The exact risk to patients undergoing surgery who develop COVID-19 is not yet fully known. This study aims to provide the current data to allow adequate consent regarding the risks of post-surgery COVID-19 infection and subsequent COVID-19-related mortality. Methods. All orthopaedic trauma cases at the Wrightington Wigan and Leigh NHS Foundation Trust from ‘lockdown’ (23 March 2020) to date (15 June 2020) were collated and split into three groups. Adult ambulatory trauma surgeries (upper limb trauma, ankle fracture, tibial plateau fracture) and regional-specific referrals (periprosthetic hip fracture) were performed at a stand-alone elective site that accepted COVID-19-negative patients. Neck of femur fractures (NOFF) and all remaining non-NOFF (paediatric trauma, long bone injury) surgeries were performed at an acute site hospital (mixed green/blue site). Patients were swabbed for COVID-19 before surgery on both sites. Age, sex, nature of surgery, American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade, associated comorbidity, length of stay, development of post-surgical COVID-19 infection, and post-surgical COVID-19-related deaths were collected. Results. At the elective site, 225 patients underwent orthopaedic trauma surgery; two became COVID-19-positive (0.9%) in the immediate perioperative period, neither of which was fatal. At the acute site, 93 patients underwent non-NOFF trauma surgery, of whom six became COVID-19-positive (6.5%) and three died. A further 84 patients underwent NOFF surgery, seven becoming COVID-19 positive (8.3%) and five died. Conclusion. At the elective site, the rate of COVID-19 infection following orthopaedic trauma surgery was low, at 0.9%. At the acute mixed site (typical district general hospital), for non-NOFF surgery there was a 6.5% incidence of post-surgical COVID-19 infection (seven-fold higher risk) with 50% COVID-19 mortality; for NOFF surgery, there was an 8.3% incidence of post-surgical COVID-19 infection, with 71% COVID-19 mortality. This is likely to have significance when planning a resumption of elective orthopaedic surgery and for consent to the patient. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-9:556–561

Aims. The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of a machine-learning algorithm to diagnose prosthetic loosening from preoperative radiographs and to investigate the inputs that might improve its performance. Methods. A group of 697 patients underwent a first-time revision of a total hip (THA) or total knee arthroplasty (TKA) at our institution between 2012 and 2018. Preoperative anteroposterior (AP) and lateral radiographs, and historical and comorbidity information were collected from their electronic records. Each patient was defined as having loose or fixed components based on the operation notes. We trained a series of convolutional neural network (CNN) models to predict a diagnosis of loosening at the time of surgery from the preoperative radiographs. We then added historical data about the patients to the best performing model to create a final model and tested it on an independent dataset. Results. The convolutional neural network we built performed well when detecting loosening from radiographs alone. The first model built de novo with only the radiological image as input had an accuracy of 70%. The final model, which was built by fine-tuning a publicly available model named DenseNet, combining the AP and lateral radiographs, and incorporating information from the patient’s history, had an accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of 88.3%, 70.2%, and 95.6% on the independent test dataset. It performed better for cases of revision THA with an accuracy of 90.1%, than for cases of revision TKA with an accuracy of 85.8%. Conclusion. This study showed that machine learning can detect prosthetic loosening from radiographs. Its accuracy is enhanced when using highly trained public algorithms, and when adding clinical data to the algorithm. While this algorithm may not be sufficient in its present state of development as a standalone metric of loosening, it is currently a useful augment for clinical decision making. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(6 Supple A):101–106

Aims. Osteopetrosis (OP) is a rare hereditary disease that causes reduced bone resorption and increased bone density as a result of osteoclastic function defect. Our aim is to review the difficulties, mid-term follow-up results, and literature encountered during the treatment of OP. Methods. This is a retrospective and observational study containing data from nine patients with a mean age of 14.1 years (9 to 25; three female, six male) with OP who were treated in our hospital between April 2008 and October 2018 with 20 surgical procedures due to 17 different fractures. Patient data included age, sex, operating time, length of stay, genetic type of the disease, previous surgery, fractures, complications, and comorbidity. Results. The mean follow-up period was 92.5 months (25 to 140). Bony union was observed in all of our patients. Osteomyelitis developed in two patients with femoral shaft fractures, and two patients had peri-implant stress fractures. Conclusion. Treatment of fractures in OP patients is difficult, healing is protracted, and the risk of postoperative infection is high. In children and young adults with OP who have open medullary canal and the epiphyses are not closed, fractures can be treated with surgical techniques such as intramedullary titanium elastic nail (TENS) technique or fixation with Kirschner (K)-wire. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(8):1082–1087

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to unprecedented challenges to healthcare systems worldwide. Orthopaedic departments have adopted business continuity models and guidelines for essential and non-essential surgeries to preserve hospital resources as well as protect patients and staff. These guidelines broadly encompass reduction of ambulatory care with a move towards telemedicine, redeployment of orthopaedic surgeons/residents to the frontline battle against COVID-19, continuation of education and research through web-based means, and cancellation of non-essential elective procedures. However, if containment of COVID-19 community spread is achieved, resumption of elective orthopaedic procedures and transition plans to return to normalcy must be considered for orthopaedic departments. The COVID-19 pandemic also presents a moral dilemma to the orthopaedic surgeon considering elective procedures. What is the best treatment for our patients and how does the fear of COVID-19 influence the risk-benefit discussion during a pandemic? Surgeons must deliberate the fine balance between elective surgery for a patient’s wellbeing versus risks to the operating team and utilization of precious hospital resources. Attrition of healthcare workers or Orthopaedic surgeons from restarting elective procedures prematurely or in an unsafe manner may render us ill-equipped to handle the second wave of infections. This highlights the need to develop effective screening protocols or preoperative COVID-19 testing before elective procedures in high-risk, elderly individuals with comorbidities. Alternatively, high-risk individuals should be postponed until the risk of nosocomial COVID-19 infection is minimal. In addition, given the higher mortality and perioperative morbidity of patients with COVID-19 undergoing surgery, the decision to operate must be carefully deliberated. As we ramp-up elective services and get “back to business” as orthopaedic surgeons, we have to be constantly mindful to proceed in a cautious and calibrated fashion, delivering the best care, while maintaining utmost vigilance to prevent the resurgence of COVID-19 during this critical transition period. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-6:222–228

Aims. Now that we are in the deceleration phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, the focus has shifted to how to safely reinstate elective operating. Regional and speciality specific data is important to guide this decision-making process. This study aimed to review 30-day mortality for all patients undergoing orthopaedic surgery during the peak of the pandemic within our region. Methods. This multicentre study reviewed data on all patients undergoing trauma and orthopaedic surgery in a region from 18 March 2020 to 27 April 2020. Information was collated from regional databases. Patients were COVID-19-positive if they had positive laboratory testing and/or imaging consistent with the infection. 30-day mortality was assessed for all patients. Secondly, 30-day mortality in fracture neck of femur patients was compared to the same time period in 2019. Results. Overall, 496 operations were carried out in 484 patients. The overall 30-day mortality was 1.9%. Seven out of nine deceased patients underwent surgery for a fractured neck of femur. In all, 27 patients contracted COVID-19 in the peri-operative period; of these, four patients died within 30 days (14.8%). In addition, 21 of the 27 patients in this group had a fractured neck of femur, 22 were over the age of 70 years (81.5%). Patients with American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade > 3 and/or age > 75 years were at significantly higher risk of death if they contracted COVID-19 within the study period. Conclusion. Overall 30-day postoperative mortality in trauma and orthopaedic surgery patients remains low at 1.9%. There was no 30-day mortality in patients ASA 1 or 2. Patients with significant comorbidities, increasing age, and ASA 3 or above remain at the highest risk. For patients with COVID-19 infection, postoperative 30-day mortality was 14.8%. The reintroduction of elective services should consider individual patient risk profile (including for ASA grade). Effective postoperative strategies should also be employed to try and reduce postoperative exposure to the virus. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-7:392–397

Aims. It has been suggested that cemented fixation of total hip arthroplasty (THA) is associated with an increased peri-operative mortality compared with cementless THA. Our aim was to investigate this through a nationwide matched cohort study adjusting for age, comorbidity, and socioeconomic background. Patients and Methods. A total of 178 784 patients with osteoarthritis who underwent either cemented or cementless THA from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register were matched with 862 294 controls from the general population. Information about the causes of death, comorbidities, and socioeconomic background was obtained. Mortality within the first 90 days after the operation was the primary outcome measure. Results. Patients who underwent cemented THA had an increased risk of death during the first 14 days compared with the controls (hazard ratio (HR) 1.3, confidence interval (CI) 1.11 to 1.44), corresponding to an absolute increase in risk of five deaths per 10 000 observations. No such early increase of risk was seen in those who underwent cementless THA. Between days 15 and 29 the risk of mortality was decreased for those with cemented THA (HR 0.7, CI 0.62 to 0.87). Between days 30 and 90 all patients undergoing THA, irrespective of the mode of fixation, had a lower risk of death than controls. Patients selected for cementless fixation were younger, healthier and had a higher level of education and income than those selected for cemented THA. A supplementary analysis of 16 556 hybrid THAs indicated that cementation of the femoral component was associated with a slight increase in mortality up to 15 days, whereas no such increase in mortality was seen in those with a cemented acetabular component combined with a cementless femoral component. Conclusion. This nationwide matched cohort study indicates that patients receiving cemented THA have a minimally increased relative risk of early mortality that is reversed from day 15 and thereafter. The absolute increase in risk is very small. Our findings lend support to the idea that cementation of the femoral component is more dangerous than cementation of the acetabular component. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:37–43

Aims. Reverse shoulder arthroplasty (RSA) reliably improves shoulder pain and function for a variety of indications. However, the safety and efficacy of RSA in elderly patients is largely unknown. The purpose of this study was to report the mortality, morbidity, complications, reoperations, and outcomes of primary RSA in patients aged > 80 years. Patients and Methods. Between 2004 and 2013, 242 consecutive primary RSAs were performed in patients aged > 80 years (mean 83.3 years (. sd. 3.1)). Of these, 53 were lost to follow-up before two years and ten had died within two years of surgery, leaving 179 for analysis of survivorship, pain, motion, and strength at a minimum of two years or until revision surgery. All 242 patients were considered for the analysis of 90-day, one-year, and overall mortality, medical complications (90-day and overall), surgical complications, and reoperations. The indications for surgery included rotator cuff arthropathy, osteoarthritis, fracture, the sequela of trauma, avascular necrosis, and rheumatoid arthritis. A retrospective review of the medical records was performed to collect all variables. Survivorship free of revision surgery was calculated at two and five years. Results. One patient (0.4%) died within the first 90 days. A total of 45 patients (19%) were known to have died at the time of the final follow-up, with a median time to death of 67.7 months (interquartile range 40.4 to 94.7) postoperatively. Medical complications occurred in six patients (3%) and surgical complications occurred in 21/179 patients (12%). Survivorship free from revision was 98.9% at two years and 98.3% at five years; survivorship free from loosening was 99.5% at final follow-up. The presence of peripheral vascular disease correlated with a higher complication rate. Conclusion. Primary RSA was safe and effective in patients aged > 80 years, with a relatively low rate of medical and surgical complications. Thus, age alone should not be a contraindication to primary RSA in patients aged > 80 years. However, a careful evaluation of comorbidities is required in this age group when considering primary RSA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1520–1525

Diabetes mellitus is considered an indicator of poor prognosis for acute ankle fractures, but this risk may be specific to an identifiable subpopulation. We retrospectively reviewed 42 patients with both diabetes mellitus and an acute, closed, rotational ankle fracture. Patients were individually matched to controls by age, gender, fracture type, and surgical vs non-surgical treatment. Outcomes were major complications during the first six months of treatment. We contrasted secondarily 21 diabetic patients with and 21 without diabetic comorbidities. Diabetic patients and controls did not differ significantly in total complication rates. More diabetic patients required long-term bracing. Diabetic patients without comorbidities had complication rates equal to their controls. Diabetic patients with comorbidities had complications at a higher rate (ten patients; 47%) than matched controls (three patients; 14%, p = 0.034). A history of Charcot neuroarthropathy led to the highest rates of complication. An increased risk of complications in diabetic patients with closed rotational fractures of the ankle are specific to a subpopulation with identifiable related comorbidities

Increasing numbers of posterior lumbar fusions are being performed. The purpose of this study was to identify trends in demographics, mortality and major complications in patients undergoing primary posterior lumbar fusion. We accessed data collected for the Nationwide Inpatient Sample for each year between 1998 and 2008 and analysed trends in the number of lumbar fusions, mean patient age, comorbidity burden, length of hospital stay, discharge status, major peri-operative complications and mortality. An estimated 1 288 496 primary posterior lumbar fusion operations were performed between 1998 and 2008 in the United States. The total number of procedures, mean patient age and comorbidity burden increased over time. Hospital length of stay decreased, although the in-hospital mortality (adjusted and unadjusted for changes in length of hospital stay) remained stable. However, a significant increase was observed in peri-operative septic, pulmonary and cardiac complications. Although in-hospital mortality rates did not change over time in the setting of increases in mean patient age and comorbidity burden, some major peri-operative complications increased. These trends highlight the need for appropriate peri-operative services to optimise outcomes in an increasingly morbid and older population of patients undergoing lumbar fusion.

Aims. The Bundled Payments for Care Improvement (BPCI) initiative has identified pathways for improving the value of care. However, patient-specific modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors may increase costs beyond the target payment. We sought to identify risk factors for exceeding our institution’s target payment, the so-called ‘bundle busters’. Patients and Methods. Using our data warehouse and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) data we identified all 412 patients who underwent total joint arthroplasty and qualified for our institution’s BPCI model, between July 2015 and May 2017. Episodes where CMS payments exceeded the target payment were considered ‘busters’ (n = 123). Risk ratios (RRs) were calculated using a modified Poisson regression analysis. Results. An increased risk of exceeding the target payment was significantly associated with increasing age (adjusted RR 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01 to 1.06) and body mass index (adjusted RR 1.03, 95% CI 1.003 to 1.06). Eight comorbid risk factors were also identified (all p < 0.05), only two of which were considered to be potentially modifiable (diabetes with complications and preoperative anaemia). An American Society of Anesthesiologist physical status classification system (ASA) score ≥ 3 (adjusted RR 2.3, 95% CI 1.67 to 3.18) and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) ≥ 3 (adjusted RR 1.94, 95% CI 1.45 to 2.60) were risk factors for bundle busting. Conclusion. Non-modifiable preoperative risk factors can increase costs and exceed the target payment. Future bundled payment models should incorporate the stratification of risk. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B(7 Supple C):64–69

Aims. While use of large national clinical databases for orthopaedic trauma research has increased dramatically, there has been little study of the differences in populations contained therein. In this study we aimed to compare populations of patients with femoral shaft fractures across three commonly used national databases, specifically with regard to age and comorbidities. Patients and Methods. Patients were identified in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS), National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) and National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB). . Results. The distributions of age and Charleston comorbidity index (CCI) reflected a predominantly older population with more comorbidities in NSQIP (mean age 71.5; . sd. 15.6), mean CCI 4.9; . sd. 1.9) than in the NTDB (mean age 45.2; . sd. 21.4), mean CCI = 2.1; . sd. 2.0). Bimodal distributions in the NIS population showed a more mixed population (mean age 56.9; . sd.  24.9), mean CCI 3.2; . sd. 2.3). Differences in age and CCI were all statistically significant (p <  0.001). . Conclusion. While these databases have been commonly used for orthopaedic trauma research, differences in the populations they represent are not always readily apparent. Care must be taken to understand fully these differences before performing or evaluating database research, as the outcomes they detail can only be analysed in context. Take home message: Researchers and those evaluating research should be aware that orthopaedic trauma populations contained in commonly studied national databases may differ substantially based on sampling methods and inclusion criteria. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:425–32