We reviewed 1567 elective knee replacements performed between 1980 and 1990, using either the Total Condylar prosthesis with an all-plastic tibial component, or the Kinematic prosthesis which has a metal tibial tray. The ten-year probability of survival was 92.1% for the Total Condylar design and 87.9% for the Kinematic. The difference was mainly due to 16 revisions required in the Kinematic series for fracture of the metal base-plate. This was the most common cause of aseptic failure in this group.

These fractures were strongly associated with a preoperative varus deformity (hazard ratio (HR) 8.8) and there was a slightly increased risk in males (HR 1.9) and in osteoarthritic knees (HR 1.8). In the nine fractures which occurred within four years of primary implantation (group 1), failure to correct adequately a preoperative varus deformity and the use of a bone graft to correct such a deformity were both strongly associated with fracture (HR 13.9 and 15.8, respectively). In eight fractures which occurred more than five years after primary replacement (group 2) we could detect no significant risk factors.

Early complications occurred in two patients after the 16 revision procedures for tray fracture. One had a deep infection and the other refracture of the tray.