header advert
Results 41 - 60 of 754
Results per page:
The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 96-B, Issue 1 | Pages 122 - 126
1 Jan 2014
Bloch BV Patel V Best AJ

Since the introduction of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines on thromboprophylaxis and the use of extended thromboprophylaxis with new oral agents, there have been reports of complications arising as a result of their use. We have looked at the incidence of wound complications after the introduction of dabigatran for thromboprophylaxis in our unit.

We investigated the rate of venous thromboembolism and wound leakage in 1728 patients undergoing primary joint replacement, both before and after the introduction of dabigatran, and following its subsequent withdrawal from our unit.

We found that the use of dabigatran led to a significant increase in post-operative wound leakage (20% with dabigatran, 5% with a multimodal regimen; p < 0.001), which also resulted in an increased duration of hospital stay. The rate of thromboembolism in patients receiving dabigatran was higher (1.3%) than in those receiving the multimodal thromboprophylaxis regimen, including low molecular weight heparin as an inpatient and the extended use of aspirin (0.3%, p = 0.047). We have ceased the use of dabigatran for thromboprophylaxis in these patients.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014;96-B:122–6.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 95-B, Issue 2 | Pages 160 - 165
1 Feb 2013
McDonnell SM Boyce G Baré J Young D Shimmin AJ

Noise generation has been reported with ceramic-on-ceramic articulations in total hip replacement (THR). This study evaluated 208 consecutive Delta Motion THRs at a mean follow-up of 21 months (12 to 35). There were 141 women and 67 men with a mean age of 59 years (22 to 84). Patients were reviewed clinically and radiologically, and the incidence of noise was determined using a newly described assessment method. Noise production was examined against range of movement, ligamentous laxity, patient-reported outcome scores, activity level and orientation of the acetabular component. There were 143 silent hips (69%), 22 (11%) with noises other than squeaking, 17 (8%) with unreproducible squeaking and 26 (13%) with reproducible squeaking. Hips with reproducible squeaking had a greater mean range of movement (p < 0.001) and mean ligament laxity (p = 0.004), smaller median head size (p = 0.01) and decreased mean acetabular component inclination (p = 0.02) and anteversion angle (p = 0.02) compared with the other groups. There was no relationship between squeaking and age (p = 0.13), height (p = 0.263), weight (p = 0.333), body mass index (p = 0.643), gender (p = 0.07) or patient outcome score (p = 0.422). There were no revisions during follow-up. Despite the surprisingly high incidence of squeaking, all patients remain satisfied with their hip replacement.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:160–5.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 94-B, Issue 1 | Pages 113 - 121
1 Jan 2012
Poultsides LA Gonzalez Della Valle A Memtsoudis SG Ma Y Roberts T Sharrock N Salvati E

We performed a meta-analysis of modern total joint replacement (TJR) to determine the post-operative mortality and the cause of death using different thromboprophylactic regimens as follows: 1) no routine chemothromboprophylaxis (NRC); 2) Potent anticoagulation (PA) (unfractionated or low-molecular-weight heparin, ximelagatran, fondaparinux or rivaroxaban); 3) Potent anticoagulation combined (PAC) with regional anaesthesia and/or pneumatic compression devices (PCDs); 4) Warfarin (W); 5) Warfarin combined (WAC) with regional anaesthesia and/or PCD; and 6) Multimodal (MM) prophylaxis, including regional anaesthesia, PCDs and aspirin in low-risk patients. Cause of death was classified as autopsy proven, clinically certain or unknown. Deaths were grouped into cardiopulmonary excluding pulmonary embolism (PE), PE, bleeding-related, gastrointestinal, central nervous system, and others (miscellaneous). Meta-analysis based on fixed effects or random effects models was used for pooling incidence data.

In all, 70 studies were included (99 441 patients; 373 deaths). The mortality was lowest in the MM (0.2%) and WC (0.2%) groups. The most frequent cause of death was cardiopulmonary (47.9%), followed by PE (25.4%) and bleeding (8.9%). The proportion of deaths due to PE was not significantly affected by the thromboprophylaxis regimen (PA, 35.5%; PAC, 28%; MM, 23.2%; and NRC, 16.3%). Fatal bleeding was higher in groups relying on the use of anticoagulation (W, 33.8%; PA, 9.4%; PAC, 10.8%) but the differences were not statistically significant.

Our study demonstrated that the routine use of PA does not reduce the overall mortality or the proportion of deaths due to PE.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 95-B, Issue 5 | Pages 609 - 615
1 May 2013
Cadossi M Chiarello E Savarino L Tedesco G Baldini N Faldini C Giannini S

We undertook a randomised controlled trial to compare bipolar hemiarthroplasty (HA) with a novel total hip replacement (THR) comprising a polycarbonate–urethane (PCU) acetabular component coupled with a large-diameter metal femoral head for the treatment of displaced fractures of the femoral neck in elderly patients. Functional outcome, assessed with the Harris hip score (HHS) at three months and then annually after surgery, was the primary endpoint. Rates of revision and complication were secondary endpoints.

Based on a power analysis, 96 consecutive patients aged > 70 years were randomised to receive either HA (49) or a PCU-THR (47). The mean follow-up was 30.1 months (23 to 50) and 28.6 months (22 to 52) for the HA and the PCU group, respectively.

The HHS showed no statistically significant difference between the groups at every follow-up. Higher pain was recorded in the PCU group at one and two years’ follow-up (p = 0.006 and p = 0.019, respectively). In the HA group no revision was performed. In the PCU-THR group six patients underwent revision and one patient is currently awaiting re-operation. The three-year survival rate of the PCU-THR group was 0.841 (95% confidence interval 0.680 to 0.926).

Based on our findings we do not recommend the use of the PCU acetabular component as part of the treatment of patients with fractures of the femoral neck.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:609–15.


Bone & Joint Research
Vol. 1, Issue 8 | Pages 180 - 191
1 Aug 2012
Stilling M Kold S de Raedt S Andersen NT Rahbek O Søballe K

Objectives

The accuracy and precision of two new methods of model-based radiostereometric analysis (RSA) were hypothesised to be superior to a plain radiograph method in the assessment of polyethylene (PE) wear.

Methods

A phantom device was constructed to simulate three-dimensional (3D) PE wear. Images were obtained consecutively for each simulated wear position for each modality. Three commercially available packages were evaluated: model-based RSA using laser-scanned cup models (MB-RSA), model-based RSA using computer-generated elementary geometrical shape models (EGS-RSA), and PolyWare. Precision (95% repeatability limits) and accuracy (Root Mean Square Errors) for two-dimensional (2D) and 3D wear measurements were assessed.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 94-B, Issue 2 | Pages 167 - 172
1 Feb 2012
Buttaro MA Costantini J Comba F Piccaluga F

We determined the midterm survival, incidence of peri-prosthetic fracture and the enhancement of the width of the femur when combining struts and impacted bone allografts in 24 patients (25 hips) with severe femoral bone loss who underwent revision hip surgery. The pre-operative diagnosis was aseptic loosening in 16 hips, second-stage reconstruction in seven, peri-prosthetic fracture in one and stem fracture in one hip. A total of 14 hips presented with an Endoklinik grade 4 defect and 11 hips a grade 3 defect. The mean pre-operative Merle D’Aubigné and Postel score was 5.5 points (1 to 8).

The survivorship was 96% (95% confidence interval 72 to 98) at a mean of 54.5 months (36 to 109). The mean functional score was 17.3 points (16 to 18). One patient in which the strut did not completely bypass the femoral defect was further revised using a long cemented stem due to peri-prosthetic fracture at six months post-operatively. The mean subsidence of the stem was 1.6 mm (1 to 3). There was no evidence of osteolysis, resorption or radiolucencies during follow-up in any hip. Femoral width was enhanced by a mean of 41% (19% to 82%). A total of 24 hips had partial or complete bridging of the strut allografts.

This combined biological method was associated with a favourable survivorship, a low incidence of peri-prosthetic fracture and enhancement of the width of the femur in revision total hip replacement in patients with severe proximal femoral bone loss.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 94-B, Issue 1 | Pages 32 - 36
1 Jan 2012
Nho J Lee Y Kim HJ Ha Y Suh Y Koo K

A variety of radiological methods of measuring version of the acetabular component after total hip replacement (THR) have been described. The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability and validity of six methods (those of Lewinnek; Widmer; Hassan et al; Ackland, Bourne and Uhthoff; Liaw et al; and Woo and Morrey) that are currently in use. In 36 consecutive patients who underwent THR, version of the acetabular component was measured by three independent examiners on plain radiographs using these six methods and compared with measurements using CT scans. The intra- and interobserver reliabilities of each measurement were estimated. All measurements on both radiographs and CT scans had excellent intra- and interobserver reliability and the results from each of the six methods correlated well with the CT measurements. However, measurements made using the methods of Widmer and of Ackland, Bourne and Uhthoff were significantly different from the CT measurements (both p < 0.001), whereas measurements made using the remaining four methods were similar to the CT measurements. With regard to reliability and convergent validity, we recommend the use of the methods described by Lewinnek, Hassan et al, Liaw et al and Woo and Morrey for measurement of version of the acetabular component.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 95-B, Issue 11_Supple_A | Pages 144 - 147
1 Nov 2013
Jones RE Russell RD Huo MH

Satisfactory primary wound healing following total joint replacement is essential. Wound healing problems can have devastating consequences for patients. Assessment of their healing capacity is useful in predicting complications. Local factors that influence wound healing include multiple previous incisions, extensive scarring, lymphoedema, and poor vascular perfusion. Systemic factors include diabetes mellitus, inflammatory arthropathy, renal or liver disease, immune compromise, corticosteroid therapy, smoking, and poor nutrition. Modifications in the surgical technique are necessary in selected cases to minimise potential wound complications. Prompt and systematic intervention is necessary to address any wound healing problems to reduce the risks of infection and other potential complications.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B, Supple A:144–7.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 94-B, Issue 11 | Pages 1482 - 1486
1 Nov 2012
Brogan K Charity J Sheeraz A Whitehouse SL Timperley AJ Howell JR Hubble MJW

The technique of femoral cement-in-cement revision is well established, but there are no previous series reporting its use on the acetabular side at the time of revision total hip replacement. We describe the technique and report the outcome of 60 consecutive acetabular cement-in-cement revisions in 59 patients at a mean follow-up of 8.5 years (5 to 12). All had a radiologically and clinically well-fixed acetabular cement mantle at the time of revision. During the follow-up 29 patients died, but no hips were lost to follow-up. The two most common indications for acetabular revision were recurrent dislocation (46, 77%) and to complement femoral revision (12, 20%).

Of the 60 hips, there were two cases of aseptic loosening of the acetabular component (3.3%) requiring re-revision. No other hip was clinically or radiologically loose (96.7%) at the latest follow-up. One hip was re-revised for infection, four for recurrent dislocation and one for disarticulation of a constrained component. At five years the Kaplan-Meier survival rate was 100% for aseptic loosening and 92.2% (95% CI 84.8 to 99.6), with revision for any cause as the endpoint.

These results support the use of cement-in-cement revision on the acetabular side in appropriate cases. Theoretical advantages include preservation of bone stock, reduced operating time, reduced risk of complications and durable fixation.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 94-B, Issue 7 | Pages 889 - 894
1 Jul 2012
Burston BJ Barnett AJ Amirfeyz R Yates PJ Bannister GC

We prospectively followed 191 consecutive collarless polished tapered (CPT) femoral stems, implanted in 175 patients who had a mean age at operation of 64.5 years (21 to 85). At a mean follow-up of 15.9 years (14 to 17.5), 86 patients (95 hips) were still alive. The fate of all original stems is known. The 16-year survivorship with re-operation for any reason was 80.7% (95% confidence interval 72 to 89.4). There was no loss to follow-up, with clinical data available on all 95 hips and radiological assessment performed on 90 hips (95%). At latest follow-up, the mean Harris hip score was 78 (28 to 100) and the mean Oxford hip score was 36 (15 to 48). Stems subsided within the cement mantle, with a mean subsidence of 2.1 mm (0.4 to 19.2). Among the original cohort, only one stem (0.5%) has been revised due to aseptic loosening. In total seven stems were revised for any cause, of which four revisions were required for infection following revision of the acetabular component. A total of 21 patients (11%) required some sort of revision procedure; all except three of these resulted from failure of the acetabular component. Cemented acetabular components had a significantly lower revision burden (three hips, 2.7%) than Harris Galante uncemented components (17 hips, 21.8%) (p < 0.001).

The CPT stem continues to provide excellent radiological and clinical outcomes at 15 years following implantation. Its results are consistent with other polished tapered stem designs.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 94-B, Issue 5 | Pages 609 - 614
1 May 2012
Flecher X Blanc G Sainsous B Parratte S Argenson J

We describe the results of 81 consecutive revision total hip replacements with impaction grafting in 79 patients using a collared polished chrome–cobalt stem, customised in length according to the extent of distal bone loss. Our hypothesis was that the features of this stem would reduce the rate of femoral fracture and subsidence of the stem.

The mean follow-up was 12 years (8 to 15). No intra-operative fracture or significant subsidence occurred. Only one patient suffered a post-operative diaphyseal fracture, which was associated with a fall. All but one femur showed incorporation of the graft. No revision for aseptic loosening was recorded.

The rate of survival of the femoral component at 12 years, using further femoral revision as the endpoint, was 100% (95% confidence interval (CI) 95.9 to 100), and at nine years using re-operation for any reason as the endpoint, was 94.6% (95% CI 92.0 to 97.2).

These results suggest that a customised cemented polished stem individually adapted to the extent of bone loss and with a collar may reduce subsidence and the rate of fracture while maintaining the durability of the fixation.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 94-B, Issue 2 | Pages 281 - 286
1 Feb 2012
Chana R Esposito C Campbell PA Walter WK Walter WL

We report a case of a male patient presenting with bilateral painful but apparently well-positioned and -fixed large-diameter metal-on-metal hip replacements four years post-operatively. Multiple imaging modes revealed a thick-walled, cystic expansile mass in communication with the hip joint (a pseudotumour). Implant retrieval analysis and tissue culture eliminated high bearing wear or infection as causes for the soft-tissue reaction, but noted marked corrosion of the modular neck taper adaptor and corrosion products in the tissues. Therefore, we believe corrosion products from the taper caused by mismatch of the implant components led to pseudotumour formation requiring revision.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 96-B, Issue 2 | Pages 217 - 223
1 Feb 2014
Namba RS Inacio MCS Cafri G

The outcome of total knee replacement (TKR) using components designed to increase the range of flexion is not fully understood. The short- to mid-term risk of aseptic revision in high flexion TKR was evaluated. The endpoint of the study was aseptic revision and the following variables were investigated: implant design (high flexion vs non-high flexion), the thickness of the tibial insert (≤ 14 mm vs > 14 mm), cruciate ligament (posterior stabilised (PS) vs cruciate retaining), mobility (fixed vs rotating), and the manufacturer (Zimmer, Smith & Nephew and DePuy). Covariates included patient, implant, surgeon and hospital factors. Marginal Cox proportional hazard models were used.

In a cohort of 64 000 TKRs, high flexion components were used in 8035 (12.5%). The high flexion knees with tibial liners of thickness > 14 mm had a density of revision of 1.45/100 years of observation, compared with 0.37/100 in non-high flexion TKR with liners ≤ 14 mm thick. Relative to a standard fixed PS TKR, the NexGen (Zimmer, Warsaw, Indiana) Gender Specific Female high flexion fixed PS TKR had an increased risk of revision (hazard ratio (HR) 2.27 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.48 to 3.50)), an effect that was magnified when a thicker tibial insert was used (HR 8.10 (95% CI 4.41 to 14.89)).

Surgeons should be cautious when choosing high flexion TKRs, particularly when thicker tibial liners might be required.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014;96-B:217–23.


Bone & Joint Research
Vol. 2, Issue 12 | Pages 264 - 269
1 Dec 2013
Antoniades G Smith EJ Deakin AH Wearing SC Sarungi M

Objective

This study compared the primary stability of two commercially available acetabular components from the same manufacturer, which differ only in geometry; a hemispherical and a peripherally enhanced design (peripheral self-locking (PSL)). The objective was to determine whether altered geometry resulted in better primary stability.

Methods

Acetabular components were seated with 0.8 mm to 2 mm interference fits in reamed polyethylene bone substrate of two different densities (0.22 g/cm3 and 0.45 g/cm3). The primary stability of each component design was investigated by measuring the peak failure load during uniaxial pull-out and tangential lever-out tests.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 95-B, Issue 11 | Pages 1450 - 1452
1 Nov 2013
Parvizi J Gehrke T Chen AF

Louis Pasteur once said that: “Fortune favours the prepared mind.” As one of the great scientists who contributed to the fight against infection, he emphasised the importance of being prepared at all times to recognise infection and deal with it. Despite the many scientific discoveries and technological advances, such as the advent of antibiotics and the use of sterile techniques, infection continues to be a problem that haunts orthopaedic surgeons and inflicts suffering on patients.

The medical community has implemented many practices with the intention of preventing infection and treating it effectively when it occurs. Although high-level evidence may support some of these practices, many are based on little to no scientific foundation. Thus, around the world, there is great variation in practices for the prevention and management of periprosthetic joint infection.

This paper summaries the instigation, conduct and findings of a recent International Consensus Meeting on Surgical Site and Periprosthetic Joint Infection.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:1450–2.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 94-B, Issue 7 | Pages 994 - 997
1 Jul 2012
Cross MB Nam D van der Meulen MCH Bostrom MPG

An 81-year-old woman presented with a fracture in the left femur. She had well-fixed bilateral hip replacements and had received long-term bisphosphonate treatment. Prolonged bisphosphonate use has been recently linked with atypical subtrochanteric and diaphyseal femoral fractures. While the current definition of an atypical fracture of the femur excludes peri-prosthetic fractures, this case suggests that they do occur and should be considered in patients with severe osteopenia. Union of the fracture followed cessation of bisphosphonates and treatment with teriparatide. Thus, this case calls into question whether prophylactic intramedullary nailing is sufficient alone to treat early or completed atypical femoral fractures.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 94-B, Issue 2 | Pages 257 - 264
1 Feb 2012
Raskob GE Gallus AS Pineo GF Chen D Ramirez L Wright RT Lassen MR

In order to compare the effect of oral apixaban (a factor Xa inhibitor) with subcutaneous enoxaparin on major venous thromboembolism and major and non-major clinically relevant bleeding after total knee and hip replacement, we conducted a pooled analysis of two previously reported double-blind randomised studies involving 8464 patients. One group received apixaban 2.5 mg twice daily (plus placebo injection) starting 12 to 24 hours after operation, and the other received enoxaparin subcutaneously once daily (and placebo tablets) starting 12 hours (± 3) pre-operatively. Each regimen was continued for 12 days (± 2) after knee and 35 days (± 3) after hip arthroplasty. All outcomes were centrally adjudicated. Major venous thromboembolism occurred in 23 of 3394 (0.7%) evaluable apixaban patients and in 51 of 3394 (1.5%) evaluable enoxaparin patients (risk difference, apixaban minus enoxaparin, -0.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) -1.2 to -0.3); two-sided p = 0.001 for superiority). Major bleeding occurred in 31 of 4174 (0.7%) apixaban patients and 32 of 4167 (0.8%) enoxaparin patients (risk difference -0.02% (95% CI -0.4 to 0.4)). Combined major and clinically relevant non-major bleeding occurred in 182 (4.4%) apixaban patients and 206 (4.9%) enoxaparin patients (risk difference -0.6% (95% CI -1.5 to 0.3)).

Apixaban 2.5 mg twice daily is more effective than enoxaparin 40 mg once daily without increased bleeding.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 96-B, Issue 3 | Pages 360 - 365
1 Mar 2014
Zheng GQ Zhang YG Chen JY Wang Y

Few studies have examined the order in which a spinal osteotomy and total hip replacement (THR) are to be performed for patients with ankylosing spondylitis. We have retrospectively reviewed 28 consecutive patients with ankylosing spondylitis who underwent both a spinal osteotomy and a THR from September 2004 to November 2012. In the cohort 22 patients had a spinal osteotomy before a THR (group 1), and six patients had a THR before a spinal osteotomy (group 2). The mean duration of follow-up was 3.5 years (2 to 9). The spinal sagittal Cobb angle of the vertebral osteotomy segment was corrected from a pre-operative kyphosis angle of 32.4 (SD 15.5°) to a post-operative lordosis 29.6 (SD 11.2°) (p < 0.001). Significant improvements in pain, function and range of movement were observed following THR. In group 2, two of six patients had an early anterior dislocation. The spinal osteotomy was performed two weeks after the THR. At follow-up, no hip has required revision in either group. Although this non-comparative study only involved a small number of patients, given our experience, we believe a spinal osteotomy should be performed prior to a THR, unless the deformity is so severe that the procedure cannot be performed. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014;96-B:360–5


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 91-B, Issue 3 | Pages 316 - 320
1 Mar 2009
Kim Y Kwon O Kim J

We investigated whether simultaneous bilateral sequential total hip replacement (THR) would increase the rate of mortality and complications compared with unilateral THR in both low- and high-risk groups of patients. We enrolled 978 patients with bilateral and 1666 with unilateral THR in the study. There were no significant pre-operative differences between the groups in regard to age, gender, body mass index, diagnosis, comorbidity as assessed by the grading of the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA), the type of prosthesis and the duration of follow-up. The mean follow-up was for 10.5 years (5 to 13) in the bilateral THR group and 9.8 years (5 to 14) in the unilateral group. The peri-operative mortality rate of patients who had simultaneous bilateral THR (0.31%, three of 978 patients) was similar to that of patients with unilateral THR (0.18%, three of 1666 patients). The peri-operative mortality rate of patients in the bilateral group was similar in high risk and low risk patients (0.70%, two of 285 patients vs 0.14%, one of 693 patients) and this was also true in the unilateral THR group (0.40%, two of 500 patients vs 0.09%, one of 1166 patients). Patients with bilateral THR required more blood transfusions and a longer hospital stay than those in the unilateral THR group. There was no significant difference (p = 0.32) in the overall number of complications between the groups. This was also true for the low-risk (p = 0.81) vs high-risk (p = 0.631) patients. Our findings confirm that simultaneous sequential bilateral THR is a safe option for patients who are considered to be either high or low risk according to the ASA classification


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 93-B, Issue 2 | Pages 172 - 177
1 Feb 2011
Pedersen AB Baron JA Overgaard S Johnsen SP

We evaluated the short-term of 0 to 90 days and the longer term, up to 12.7 years, mortality for patients undergoing primary total hip replacement (THR) in Denmark in comparison to the general population. Through the Danish Hip Arthroplasty Registry we identified all primary THRs undertaken for osteoarthritis between 1 January 1995 and 31 December 2006. Each patient (n = 44 558) was matched at the time of surgery with three people from the general population (n = 133 674). We estimated mortality rates and mortality rate ratios with 95% confidence intervals for THR patients compared with the general population. There was a one-month period of increased mortality immediately after surgery among THR patients, but overall short-term mortality (0 to 90 days) was significantly lower (mortality rate ratio 0.8; 95% confidence interval 0.7 to 0.9). However, THR surgery was associated with increased short-term mortality in subjects under 60 years old, and among THR patients without comorbidity. Long-term mortality was lower among THR patients than in controls (mortality rate ratio 0.7; 95% confidence interval 0.7 to 0.7). Overall, THR was associated with lower short- and long-term mortality among patients with osteoarthritis. Younger patients and patients without comorbidity before surgery may also experience increased mortality after THR surgery, although the absolute risk of death is small