Aims. Occult (clinical) injuries represent 15% of all scaphoid fractures, posing significant challenges to the clinician. MRI has been suggested as the gold standard for diagnosis, but remains expensive, time-consuming, and is in high demand. Conventional management with immobilization and serial radiography typically results in multiple follow-up attendances to clinic, radiation exposure, and delays return to work. Suboptimal management can result in significant disability and, frequently, litigation. Methods. We present a service evaluation report following the introduction of a quality-improvement themed, streamlined, clinical scaphoid pathway. Patients are offered a removable wrist splint with verbal and written instructions to remove it two weeks following injury, for self-assessment. The persistence of pain is the patient’s guide to ‘opt-in’ and to self-refer for a follow-up appointment with a senior emergency physician. On confirmation of ongoing signs of clinical scaphoid injury, an urgent outpatient ‘fast’-wrist protocol MRI scan is ordered, with instructions to maintain wrist immobilization. Patients with positive scan results are referred for specialist orthopaedic assessment via a virtual fracture clinic. Results. From February 2018 to January 2019, there were 442 patients diagnosed as clinical scaphoid fractures. 122 patients (28%) self-referred back to the emergency department at two weeks. Following clinical review, 53 patients were discharged; MRI was booked for 69 patients (16%). Overall, six patients (< 2% of total; 10% of those scanned) had positive scans for a scaphoid fracture. There were no known missed fractures, long-term non-unions or malunions resulting from this pathway. Costs were saved by avoiding face-to-face clinical review and MRI scanning. Conclusion. A patient-focused opt-in approach is safe and effective to managing the suspected occult (clinical) scaphoid fracture. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(2):117–122

Aims. The primary aim of this study was to assess the feasibility of recruiting and retaining patients to a patient-blinded randomized controlled trial comparing corticosteroid injection (CSI) to autologous protein solution (APS) injection for the treatment of subacromial shoulder pain in a community care setting. The study focused on recruitment rates and retention of participants throughout, and collected data on the interventions’ safety and efficacy. Methods. Participants were recruited from two community musculoskeletal treatment centres in the UK. Patients were eligible if aged 18 years or older, and had a clinical diagnosis of subacromial impingement syndrome which the treating clinician thought was suitable for treatment with a subacromial injection. Consenting patients were randomly allocated 1:1 to a patient-blinded subacromial injection of CSI (standard care) or APS. The primary outcome measures of this study relate to rates of recruitment, retention, and compliance with intervention and follow-up to determine feasibility. Secondary outcome measures relate to the safety and efficacy of the interventions. Results. A total of 53 patients were deemed eligible, and 50 patients (94%) recruited between April 2022 and October 2022. Overall, 49 patients (98%) complied with treatment. Outcome data were collected in 100% of participants at three months and 94% at six months. There were no significant adverse events. Both groups demonstrated improvement in patient-reported outcome measures over the six-month period. Conclusion. Our study shows that it is feasible to recruit to a patient-blinded randomized controlled trial comparing APS and CSI for subacromial pain in terms of clinical outcomes and health-resource use in the UK. Safety and efficacy data are presented. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(7):534–542

Aims. To assess the feasibility of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) that compares three treatments for acetabular fractures in older patients: surgical fixation, surgical fixation and hip arthroplasty (fix-and-replace), and non-surgical treatment. Methods. Patients were recruited from seven UK NHS centres and randomized to a three-arm pilot trial if aged older than 60 years and had a displaced acetabular fracture. Feasibility outcomes included patients’ willingness to participate, clinicians’ capability to recruit, and dropout rates. The primary clinical outcome measure was the EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D) at six months. Secondary outcomes were Oxford Hip Score, Disability Rating Index, blood loss, and radiological and mobility assessments. Results. Between December 2017 and December 2019, 60 patients were recruited (median age 77.4 years, range 63.3 to 88.5) (39/21 M/F ratio). At final nine-month follow-up, 4/60 (7%) had withdrawn, 4/60 (7%) had died, and one had been lost to follow-up; a 98% response rate (50/51) was achieved for the EQ-5D questionnaire. Four deaths were recorded during the three-year trial period: three in the non-surgical treatment group and one in the fix-and-replace group. Conclusion. This study has shown a full-scale RCT to be feasible, but will need international recruitment. The Acetabular Fractures in older patients Intervention Trial (AceFIT) has informed the design of a multinational RCT sample size of 1,474 or 1,974 patients for a minimal clinically important difference of 0.06 on EQ-5D, with a power of 0.8 or 0.9, and loss to follow-up of 20%. This observed patient cohort comprises a medically complex group requiring multidisciplinary care; surgeon, anaesthetist, and ortho-geriatrician input is needed to optimize recovery and rehabilitation. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(4):401–411

Aims. Hip disease is common in children with cerebral palsy (CP) and can decrease quality of life and function. Surveillance programmes exist to improve outcomes by treating hip disease at an early stage using radiological surveillance. However, studies and surveillance programmes report different radiological outcomes, making it difficult to compare. We aimed to identify the most important radiological measurements and develop a core measurement set (CMS) for clinical practice, research, and surveillance programmes. Methods. A systematic review identified a list of measurements previously used in studies reporting radiological hip outcomes in children with CP. These measurements informed a two-round Delphi study, conducted among orthopaedic surgeons and specialist physiotherapists. Participants rated each measurement on a nine-point Likert scale (‘not important’ to ‘critically important’). A consensus meeting was held to finalize the CMS. Results. Overall, 14 distinct measurements were identified in the systematic review, with Reimer’s migration percentage being the most frequently reported. These measurements were presented over the two rounds of the Delphi process, along with two additional measurements that were suggested by participants. Ultimately, two measurements, Reimer’s migration percentage and femoral head-shaft angle, were included in the CMS. Conclusion. This use of a minimum standardized set of measurements has the potential to encourage uniformity across hip surveillance programmes, and may streamline the development of tools, such as artificial intelligence systems to automate the analysis in surveillance programmes. This core set should be the minimum requirement in clinical studies, allowing clinicians to add to this as needed, which will facilitate comparisons to be drawn between studies and future meta-analyses. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(11):825–831

Aims. A national screening programme has existed in the UK for the diagnosis of developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) since 1969. However, every aspect of screening and treatment remains controversial. Screening programmes throughout the world vary enormously, and in the UK there is significant variation in screening practice and treatment pathways. We report the results of an attempt by the British Society for Children’s Orthopaedic Surgery (BSCOS) to identify a nationwide consensus for the management of DDH in order to unify treatment and suggest an approach for screening. Methods. A Delphi consensus study was performed among the membership of BSCOS. Statements were generated by a steering group regarding aspects of the management of DDH in children aged under three months, namely screening and surveillance (15 questions), the technique of ultrasound scanning (eight questions), the initiation of treatment (19 questions), care during treatment with a splint (ten questions), and on quality, governance, and research (eight questions). A two-round Delphi process was used and a consensus document was produced at the final meeting of the steering group. Results. A total of 60 statements were graded by 128 clinicians in the first round and 132 in the second round. Consensus was reached on 30 out of 60 statements in the first round and an additional 12 in the seond. This was summarized in a consensus statement and distilled into a flowchart to guide clinical practice. Conclusion. We identified agreement in an area of medicine that has a long history of controversy and varied practice. None of the areas of consensus are based on high-quality evidence. This document is thus a framework to guide clinical practice and on which high-quality clinical trials can be developed. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(2):209–214

Aims. The aim of this study was to gain a consensus for best practice of the assessment and management of children with idiopathic toe walking (ITW) in order to provide a benchmark for practitioners and guide the best consistent care. Methods. An established Delphi approach with predetermined steps and degree of agreement based on a standardized protocol was used to determine consensus. The steering group members and Delphi survey participants included members from the British Society of Children’s Orthopaedic Surgery (BSCOS) and the Association of Paediatric Chartered Physiotherapists (APCP). The statements included definition, assessment, treatment indications, nonoperative and operative interventions, and outcomes. Descriptive statistics were used for analysis of the Delphi survey results. The AGREE checklist was followed for reporting the results. Results. A total of 227 participants (54% APCP and 46% BSCOS members) completed the first round, and 222 participants (98%) completed the second round. Out of 54 proposed statements included in the first round Delphi, 17 reached ‘consensus in’, no statements reached ‘consensus out’, and 37 reached ‘no consensus’. These 37 statements were then discussed, reworded, amalgamated, or deleted before the second round Delphi of 29 statements. A total of 12 statements reached ‘consensus in’, four ‘consensus out’, and 13 ‘no consensus’. In the final consensus meeting, 13 statements were voted upon. Five were accepted, resulting in a total of 31 approved statements. Conclusion. In the aspects of practice where sufficient evidence is not available, a consensus statement can provide a strong body of opinion that acts as a benchmark for excellence in clinical care. This statement can assist clinicians managing children with ITW to ensure consistent and reliable practice, and reduce geographical variability in practice and outcomes. It will enable those treating ITW to share the published consensus document with both carers and patient groups. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(10):1190–1196

Aims. This study evaluated the effect of treating clinician speciality on management of zone 2 fifth metatarsal fractures. Methods. This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with acute zone 2 fifth metatarsal fractures who presented to a single large, urban, academic medical centre between December 2012 and April 2022. Zone 2 was the region of the fifth metatarsal base bordered by the fourth and fifth metatarsal articulation on the oblique radiograph. The proportion of patients allowed to bear weight as tolerated immediately after injury was compared between patients treated by orthopaedic surgeons and podiatrists. The effects of unrestricted weightbearing and foot and/or ankle immobilization on clinical healing were assessed. A total of 487 patients with zone 2 fractures were included (mean age 53.5 years (SD 16.9), mean BMI 27.2 kg/m. 2. (SD 6.0)) with a mean follow-up duration of 2.57 years (SD 2.64). Results. Overall, 281 patients (57.7%) were treated by orthopaedic surgeons, and 206 patients (42.3%) by podiatrists. When controlling for age, sex, and time between symptom onset and presentation, the likelihood of undergoing operative treatment was significantly greater when treated by a podiatrist (odds ratio (OR) 2.9 (95% CI 1.2 to 8.2); p = 0.029). A greater proportion of patients treated by orthopaedic surgeons were allowed to immediately bear weight on the injured foot (70.9% (178/251) vs 47.3% (71/150); p < 0.001). Patients treated by podiatrists were immobilized for significantly longer (mean 8.4 weeks (SD 5.7) vs 6.8 weeks (SD 4.3); p = 0.002) and experienced a significantly longer mean time to clinical healing (12.1 (SD 10.6) vs 9.0 weeks (SD 7.3), p = 0.003). Conclusion. Although there was considerable heterogeneity among zone 2 fracture management, orthopaedic surgeons were less likely to treat patients operatively and more likely to allow early full weightbearing compared to podiatrists. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(9):942–948

Aims. The optimal management of posterior malleolar ankle fractures, a prevalent type of ankle trauma, is essential for improved prognosis. However, there remains a debate over the most effective surgical approach, particularly between screw and plate fixation methods. This study aims to investigate the differences in outcomes associated with these fixation techniques. Methods. We conducted a comprehensive review of clinical trials comparing anteroposterior (A-P) screws, posteroanterior (P-A) screws, and plate fixation. Two investigators validated the data sourced from multiple databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science). Following PRISMA guidelines, we carried out a network meta-analysis (NMA) using visual analogue scale and American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Score (AOFAS) as primary outcomes. Secondary outcomes included range of motion limitations, radiological outcomes, and complication rates. Results. The NMA encompassed 13 studies, consisting of four randomized trials and eight retrospective ones. According to the surface under the cumulative ranking curve-based ranking, the A-P screw was ranked highest for improvements in AOFAS and exhibited lowest in infection and peroneal nerve injury incidence. The P-A screws, on the other hand, excelled in terms of VAS score improvements. Conversely, posterior buttress plate fixation showed the least incidence of osteoarthritis grade progression, postoperative articular step-off ≥ 2 mm, nonunions, and loss of ankle dorsiflexion ≥ 5°, though it underperformed in most other clinical outcomes. Conclusion. The NMA suggests that open plating is more likely to provide better radiological outcomes, while screw fixation may have a greater potential for superior functional and pain results. Nevertheless, clinicians should still consider the fragment size and fracture pattern, weighing the advantages of rigid biomechanical fixation against the possibility of soft-tissue damage, to optimize treatment results. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(3):227–235

Prediction tools are instruments which are commonly used to estimate the prognosis in oncology and facilitate clinical decision-making in a more personalized manner. Their popularity is shown by the increasing numbers of prediction tools, which have been described in the medical literature. Many of these tools have been shown to be useful in the field of soft-tissue sarcoma of the extremities (eSTS). In this annotation, we aim to provide an overview of the available prediction tools for eSTS, provide an approach for clinicians to evaluate the performance and usefulness of the available tools for their own patients, and discuss their possible applications in the management of patients with an eSTS. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(9):1011–1016

Aims. To explore individuals’ experience of a scaphoid waist fracture and its subsequent treatment. Methods. A purposive sample was created, consisting of 49 participants in the Scaphoid Waist Internal Fixation for Fractures Trial of initial surgery compared with plaster cast treatment for fractures of the scaphoid waist. The majority of participants were male (35/49) and more younger participants (28/49 aged under 30 years) were included. Participants were interviewed six weeks or 52 weeks post-recruitment to the trial, or at both timepoints. Interviews were semistructured and analyzed inductively to generate cross-cutting themes that typify experience of the injury and views upon the treatment options. Results. Data show that individual circumstances might exaggerate or mitigate the limitations associated with a scaphoid fracture, and that an individual’s sense of recovery is subjective and more closely aligned with perceived functional abilities than it is with bone union. Misconceptions that surgery promises a speedier and more secure form of recovery means that some individuals, whose circumstances prescribe a need for quick return to function, express a preference for this treatment modality. Clinical consultations need to negotiate the imperfect relationship between bone union, normal function, and an individual’s sense of recovery. Enhancing patients’ perceptions of regaining function, with removable splints and encouraging home exercise, will support satisfaction with care and discourage premature risk-taking. Conclusion. Clinical decision-making in the management of scaphoid fractures should recognize that personal circumstances will influence how functional limitations are experienced. It should also recognize that function overrides a concern for bone union, and that the consequences of fractures are poorly understood. Where possible, clinicians should reinforce in individuals a sense that they are making progress in their recovery. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(8):641–647

Aims. This study aimed to develop and validate a fully automated system that quantifies proximal femoral bone mineral density (BMD) from CT images. Methods. The study analyzed 978 pairs of hip CT and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) measurements of the proximal femur (DXA-BMD) collected from three institutions. From the CT images, the femur and a calibration phantom were automatically segmented using previously trained deep-learning models. The Hounsfield units of each voxel were converted into density (mg/cm. 3. ). Then, a deep-learning model trained by manual landmark selection of 315 cases was developed to select the landmarks at the proximal femur to rotate the CT volume to the neutral position. Finally, the CT volume of the femur was projected onto the coronal plane, and the areal BMD of the proximal femur (CT-aBMD) was quantified. CT-aBMD correlated to DXA-BMD, and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis quantified the accuracy in diagnosing osteoporosis. Results. CT-aBMD was successfully measured in 976/978 hips (99.8%). A significant correlation was found between CT-aBMD and DXA-BMD (r = 0.941; p < 0.001). In the ROC analysis, the area under the curve to diagnose osteoporosis was 0.976. The diagnostic sensitivity and specificity were 88.9% and 96%, respectively, with the cutoff set at 0.625 g/cm. 2. . Conclusion. Accurate DXA-BMD measurements and diagnosis of osteoporosis were performed from CT images using the system developed herein. As the models are open-source, clinicians can use the proposed system to screen osteoporosis and determine the surgical strategy for hip surgery. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(9):590–597

Aims. Orthopaedic surgery uses many varied instruments with high-speed, high-impact, thermal energy and sometimes heavy instruments, all of which potentially result in aerosolization of contaminated blood, tissue, and bone, raising concerns for clinicians’ health. This study quantifies the aerosol exposure by measuring the number and size distribution of the particles reaching the lead surgeon during key orthopaedic operations. Methods. The aerosol yield from 17 orthopaedic open surgeries (on the knee, hip, and shoulder) was recorded at the position of the lead surgeon using an Aerodynamic Particle Sizer (APS; 0.5 to 20 μm diameter particles) sampling at 1 s time resolution. Through timestamping, detected aerosol was attributed to specific procedures. Results. Diathermy (electrocautery) and oscillating bone saw use had a high aerosol yield (> 100 particles detected per s) consistent with high exposure to aerosol in the respirable range (< 5 µm) for the lead surgeon. Pulsed lavage, reaming, osteotome use, and jig application/removal were medium aerosol yield (10 to 100 particles s. -1. ). However, pulsed lavage aerosol was largely attributed to the saline jet, osteotome use was always brief, and jig application/removal had a large variability in the associated aerosol yield. Suctioning (with/without saline irrigation) had a low aerosol yield (< 10 particles s. -1. ). Most surprisingly, other high-speed procedures, such as drilling and screwing, had low aerosol yields. Conclusion. This work suggests that additional precautions should be recommended for diathermy and bone sawing, such as enhanced personal protective equipment or the use of suction devices to reduce exposure. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(10):636–643

Aims. The aim of this study was to explore current use of the Global Fragility Fracture Network (FFN) Minimum Common Dataset (MCD) within established national hip fracture registries, and to propose a revised MCD to enable international benchmarking for hip fracture care. Methods. We compared all ten established national hip fracture registries: England, Wales, and Northern Ireland; Scotland; Australia and New Zealand; Republic of Ireland; Germany; the Netherlands; Sweden; Norway; Denmark; and Spain. We tabulated all questions included in each registry, and cross-referenced them against the 32 questions of the MCD dataset. Having identified those questions consistently used in the majority of national audits, and which additional fields were used less commonly, we then used consensus methods to establish a revised MCD. Results. A total of 215 unique questions were used across the ten registries. Only 72 (34%) were used in more than one national audit, and only 32 (15%) by more than half of audits. Only one registry used all 32 questions from the 2014 MCD, and five questions were only collected by a single registry. Only 21 of the 32 questions in the MCD were used in the majority of national audits. Only three fields (anaesthetic grade, operation, and date/time of surgery) were used by all ten established audits. We presented these findings at the Asia-Pacific FFN meeting, and used an online questionnaire to capture feedback from expert clinicians from different countries. A draft revision of the MCD was then presented to all 95 nations represented at the Global FFN conference in September 2021, with online feedback again used to finalize the revised MCD. Conclusion. The revised MCD will help aspirant nations establish new registry programmes, facilitate the integration of novel analytic techniques and greater multinational collaboration, and serve as an internationally-accepted standard for monitoring and improving hip fracture services. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(6):721–728

This review provides a concise outline of the advances made in the care of patients and to the quality of life after a traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI) over the last century. Despite these improvements reversal of the neurological injury is not yet possible. Instead, current treatment is limited to providing symptomatic relief, avoiding secondary insults and preventing additional sequelae. However, with an ever-advancing technology and deeper understanding of the damaged spinal cord, this appears increasingly conceivable. A brief synopsis of the most prominent challenges facing both clinicians and research scientists in developing functional treatments for a progressively complex injury are presented. Moreover, the multiple mechanisms by which damage propagates many months after the original injury requires a multifaceted approach to ameliorate the human spinal cord. We discuss potential methods to protect the spinal cord from damage, and to manipulate the inherent inhibition of the spinal cord to regeneration and repair. Although acute and chronic SCI share common final pathways resulting in cell death and neurological deficits, the underlying putative mechanisms of chronic SCI and the treatments are not covered in this review

Aims. The primary aim of this prospective, multicentre study is to describe the rates of returning to golf following hip, knee, ankle, and shoulder arthroplasty in an active golfing population. Secondary aims will include determining the timing of return to golf, changes in ability, handicap, and mobility, and assessing joint-specific and health-related outcomes following surgery. Methods. This is a multicentre, prospective, longitudinal study between the Hospital for Special Surgery, (New York City, New York, USA) and Edinburgh Orthopaedics, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, (Edinburgh, UK). Both centres are high-volume arthroplasty centres, specializing in upper and lower limb arthroplasty. Patients undergoing hip, knee, ankle, or shoulder arthroplasty at either centre, and who report being golfers prior to arthroplasty, will be included. Patient-reported outcome measures will be obtained at six weeks, three months, six months, and 12 months. A two-year period of recruitment will be undertaken of arthroplasty patients at both sites. Conclusion. The results of this prospective study will provide clinicians with accurate data to deliver to patients with regard to the likelihood of return to golf and timing of when they can expect to return to golf following their hip, knee, ankle, or shoulder arthroplasty, as well as their joint-specific functional outcomes. This will help patients to manage their postoperative expectations and plan their postoperative recovery pathway. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(7):490–495

Aims. The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a prognostic nomogram to predict the probability of gaining a functional range of motion (ROM ≥ 120°) after open arthrolysis of the elbow in patients with post-traumatic stiffness of the elbow. Methods. We developed the Shanghai Prediction Model for Elbow Stiffness Surgical Outcome (SPESSO) based on a dataset of 551 patients who underwent open arthrolysis of the elbow in four institutions. Demographic and clinical characteristics were collected from medical records. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize the selection of relevant features. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to build the SPESSO. Its prediction performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and a calibration graph. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. BMI, the duration of stiffness, the preoperative ROM, the preoperative intensity of pain, and grade of post-traumatic osteoarthritis of the elbow were identified as predictors of outcome and incorporated to construct the nomogram. SPESSO displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.73 (95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.81). A high C-index value of 0.70 could still be reached in the interval validation. The calibration graph showed good agreement between the nomogram prediction and the outcome. Conclusion. The newly developed SPESSO is a valid and convenient model which can be used to predict the outcome of open arthrolysis of the elbow. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding the choice and expectations of treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):486–494

Periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) is a difficult complication requiring a comprehensive eradication protocol. Cure rates have essentially stalled in the last two decades, using methods of antimicrobial cement joint spacers and parenteral antimicrobial agents. Functional spacers with higher-dose antimicrobial-loaded cement and antimicrobial-loaded calcium sulphate beads have emphasized local antimicrobial delivery on the premise that high-dose local antimicrobial delivery will enhance eradication. However, with increasing antimicrobial pressures, microbiota have responded with adaptive mechanisms beyond traditional antimicrobial resistance genes. In this review we describe adaptive resistance mechanisms that are relevant to the treatment of PJI. Some mechanisms are well known, but others are new. The objective of this review is to inform clinicians of the known adaptive resistance mechanisms of microbes relevant to PJI. We also discuss the implications of these adaptive mechanisms in the future treatment of PJI. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(5):575–580

Aims. To identify variables independently associated with same-day discharge (SDD) of patients following revision total knee arthroplasty (rTKA) and to develop machine learning algorithms to predict suitable candidates for outpatient rTKA. Methods. Data were obtained from the American College of Surgeons National Quality Improvement Programme (ACS-NSQIP) database from the years 2018 to 2020. Patients with elective, unilateral rTKA procedures and a total hospital length of stay between zero and four days were included. Demographic, preoperative, and intraoperative variables were analyzed. A multivariable logistic regression (MLR) model and various machine learning techniques were compared using area under the curve (AUC), calibration, and decision curve analysis. Important and significant variables were identified from the models. Results. Of the 5,600 patients included in this study, 342 (6.1%) underwent SDD. The random forest (RF) model performed the best overall, with an internally validated AUC of 0.810. The ten crucial factors favoring SDD in the RF model include operating time, anaesthesia type, age, BMI, American Society of Anesthesiologists grade, race, history of diabetes, rTKA type, sex, and smoking status. Eight of these variables were also found to be significant in the MLR model. Conclusion. The RF model displayed excellent accuracy and identified clinically important variables for determining candidates for SDD following rTKA. Machine learning techniques such as RF will allow clinicians to accurately risk-stratify their patients preoperatively, in order to optimize resources and improve patient outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(6):399–407

Aims. Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a common complication after elbow trauma and can cause severe upper limb disability. Although multiple prognostic factors have been reported to be associated with the development of post-traumatic HO, no model has yet been able to combine these predictors more succinctly to convey prognostic information and medical measures to patients. Therefore, this study aimed to identify prognostic factors leading to the formation of HO after surgery for elbow trauma, and to establish and validate a nomogram to predict the probability of HO formation in such particular injuries. Methods. This multicentre case-control study comprised 200 patients with post-traumatic elbow HO and 229 patients who had elbow trauma but without HO formation between July 2019 and December 2020. Features possibly associated with HO formation were obtained. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize feature selection. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build the new nomogram: the Shanghai post-Traumatic Elbow Heterotopic Ossification Prediction model (STEHOP). STEHOP was validated by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. Male sex, obesity, open wound, dislocations, late definitive surgical treatment, and lack of use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were identified as adverse predictors and incorporated to construct the STEHOP model. It displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.84). A high C-index value of 0.77 could still be reached in the internal validation. The calibration plot showed good agreement between nomogram prediction and observed outcomes. Conclusion. The newly developed STEHOP model is a valid and convenient instrument to predict HO formation after surgery for elbow trauma. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding treatment expectations and therapeutic choices. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):963–971

Aims. Extensive literature exists relating to the management of shoulder instability, with a more recent focus on glenoid and humeral bone loss. However, the optimal timing for surgery following a dislocation remains unclear. There is concern that recurrent dislocations may worsen subsequent surgical outcomes, with some advocating stabilization after the first dislocation. The aim of this study was to determine if the recurrence of instability following arthroscopic stabilization in patients without significant glenoid bone loss was influenced by the number of dislocations prior to surgery. Methods. A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed using the PubMed, EMBASE, Orthosearch, and Cochrane databases with the following search terms: ((shoulder or glenohumeral) and (dislocation or subluxation) and arthroscopic and (Bankart or stabilisation or stabilization) and (redislocation or re-dislocation or recurrence or instability)). Methodology followed the PRISMA guidelines. Data and outcomes were synthesized by two independent reviewers, and papers were assessed for bias and quality. Results. Overall, 35 studies including 7,995 shoulders were eligible for analysis, with a mean follow-up of 32.7 months (12 to 159.5). The rate of post-stabilization instability was 9.8% in first-time dislocators, 9.1% in recurrent dislocators, and 8.5% in a mixed cohort. A descriptive analysis investigated the influence of recurrent instability or age in the risk of instability post-stabilization, with an association seen with increasing age and a reduced risk of recurrence post-stabilization. Conclusion. Using modern arthroscopic techniques, patients sustaining an anterior shoulder dislocation without glenoid bone loss can expect a low risk of recurrence postoperatively, and no significant difference was found between first-time and recurrent dislocators. Furthermore, high-risk cohorts can expect a low, albeit slightly higher, rate of redislocation. With the findings of this study, patients and clinicians can be more informed as to the likely outcomes of arthroscopic stabilization within this patient subset. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(10):1141–1149