Aims. To investigate whether chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with the risk of all-cause revision or revision due to a periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) after primary hip or knee arthroplasty. Methods. This retrospective cohort study comprised 18,979 consecutive hip and knee arthroplasties from a single high-volume academic hospital. At a median of 5.6 years (interquartile range (IQR) 3.5 to 8.1), all deaths and revisions were counted. To overcome the competing risk of death, competing risk analysis using the cumulative incidence function (CIF) was applied to analyze the association between different stages of CKD and revisions. Confounding factors such as diabetes and BMI were considered using either a stratified CIF or the Fine and Gray model. Results. There were 2,111 deaths (11.1%) and 677 revisions (3.6%) during the follow-up period. PJI was the reason for revision in 162 cases (0.9%). For hip arthroplasty, 3.5% of patients with CKD stage 1 (i.e. normal kidney function, NKF), 3.8% with CKD stage 2, 4.2% with CKD stage 3, and 0% with CKD stage 4 to 5 had undergone revision within eight years. For knee arthroplasty, 4.7% with NKF, 2.7% with CKD stage 2, 2.4% with CKD stage 3, and 7% of CKD stage 4 to 5 had had undergone revision. With the exception of knee arthroplasty patients in whom normal kidney function was associated with a greater probability of all-cause revision, there were no major differences in the rates of all-cause revisions or revisions due to PJIs between different CKD stages. The results remained unchanged when diabetes and BMI were considered. Conclusion. We found no strong evidence that CKD was associated with an increased risk of all-cause or PJI-related revision. Selection bias probably explains the increased amount of all-cause revision operations in knee arthroplasty patients with normal kidney function. The effect of stage 4 to 5 CKD was difficult to evaluate because of the small number of patients. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(4):689–695

Aims. The primary aim was to assess the rate of postoperative COVID-19 following hip and knee arthroplasty performed in March 2020 in the UK. The secondary aims were to assess whether there were clinical factors associated with COVID-19 status, the mortality rate of patients with COVID-19, and the rate of potential COVID-19 in patients not presenting to healthcare services. Methods. A multicentre retrospective study was conducted of patients undergoing hip or knee arthroplasty during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (1 March 2020 to 31 March 2020) with a minimum of 60 days follow-up. Patient demographics, American Society of Anesthesiologists grade, procedure type, primary or revision, length of stay (LOS), COVID-19 test status, and postoperative mortality were recorded. A subgroup of patients (n = 211) who had not presented to healthcare services after discharge were contacted and questioned as to whether they had symptoms of COVID-19. Results. Five (0.5%) of 1,073 patients who underwent hip or knee arthroplasty tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 postoperatively. When adjusting for confounding factors, increasing LOS (p = 0.022) was the only significant factor associated with developing COVID-19 following surgery and a stay greater than three days was a reliable predictor with an area under the curve of 81% (p = 0.018). There were three (0.3%) deaths in the study cohort and the overall mortality rate attributable to COVID-19 was 0.09% (n = 1/1,073), with one (20%) of the five patients with COVID-19 dying postoperatively. Of the 211 patients contacted, two had symptoms within two to 14 days postoperatively with a positive predictive value of 31% and it was therefore estimated that one patient may have had undiagnosed COVID-19. Conclusion. The rate of postoperative COVID-19 was 0.5% and may have been as high as 1% when accounting for those patients not presenting to healthcare services, which was similar to the estimated population prevalence during the study period. The overall mortality rate secondary to COVID-19 was low (0.09%), however the mortality rate for those patients developing COVID-19 was 20%. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(4):681–688

Aims. The aim of this study was to review the value of accepting referrals for children with ‘clicky hips’ in a selective screening programme for hip dysplasia. Patients and Methods. A single-centre prospective database of all referrals to the hip clinic was examined to identify indication for referrals, diagnosis, and treatment. All patients referred received a standardized ultrasound scan and clinical examination by an orthopaedic consultant. Results. There were 5716 children referred to the orthopaedic hip clinic between 1 June 2014 and 26 September 2018. In all, 1754 children (30.1%) were referred due to ‘clicky hip’ with no additional risk factors or indications for ultrasound scan. A total of 123 children (7.1%) referred with ‘clicky hip’ and no additional risk factors or examination findings had an abnormal initial hip ultrasound, including 16 children (0.9%) with dysplastic hips. Of the 141 children who required treatment in a Pavlik harness during the study period, 23 (16%) had been referred with a ‘clicky hip’ and no additional risk factors or examination findings, including six children with Graf 3 or 4 hips. Conclusion. There is significant value in reviewing children with an isolated ‘clicky hip’. Many children who require treatment are referred to the orthopaedic service as ‘clicky hip’ with no additional risk factors. In a pragmatic pathway with a diverse population of clinicians performing baby checks, ‘clicky hip’ is an important indication for referral and should not be discarded. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:635–638

Aims. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic meant that proceeding with elective surgery was restricted to minimize exposure on wards. In order to maintain throughput of elective cases, our hospital (St Michaels Hospital, Toronto, Canada) was forced to convert as many cases as possible to same-day procedures rather than overnight admission. In this retrospective analysis, we review the cases performed as same-day arthroplasty surgeries compared to the same period in the previous 12 months. Methods. We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients undergoing total hip and knee arthroplasties over a three-month period between October and December in 2019, and again in 2020, in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic. Patient demographics, number of outpatient primary arthroplasty cases, length of stay for admissions, 30-day readmission, and complications were collated. Results. In total, 428 patient charts were reviewed for October to December of 2019 (n = 195) and 2020 (n = 233). Of those, total hip arthroplasties (THAs) comprised 60% and 58.8% for 2019 and 2020, respectively. Demographic data was comparable with no statistical difference for age, sex, contralateral joint arthroplasty, or BMI. American Society of Anesthesiologists grade I was more highly prevalent in the 2020 cohort (5.1-times increase; n = 13 vs n = 1). Degenerative disc disease and fibromyalgia were less significantly prevalent in the 2020 cohort. There was a significant increase in same day discharges for non-direct anterior approach THAs (two-times increase) and total knee arthroplasty (ten-times increase), with a reciprocal decrease in next day discharges. There were significantly fewer reported superficial wound infections in 2020 (5.6% vs 1.7%) and no significant differences in readmissions or emergency department visits (3.1% vs 3.0%). Conclusion. The COVID-19 pandemic meant that hospitals and patients were hopeful to minimize the exposure to the wards, and minimize strain on the already taxed inpatient beds. With few positives during the COVID-19 crisis, the pandemic was the catalyst to speed up the outpatient arthroplasty programme that has resulted in our institution being more efficient, and with no increase in readmissions or early complications. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(7):545–551

Aims. To calculate how the likelihood of obtaining measurable benefit from hip or knee arthroplasty varies with preoperative patient-reported scores. Methods. Existing UK data from 222,933 knee and 209,760 hip arthroplasty patients were used to model an individual’s probability of gaining meaningful improvement after surgery based on their preoperative Oxford Knee or Hip Score (OKS/OHS). A clinically meaningful improvement after arthroplasty was defined as ≥ 8 point improvement in OHS, and ≥ 7 in OKS. Results. The upper preoperative score threshold, above which patients are unlikely to achieve any meaningful improvement from surgery, is 41 for knees and 40 for hips. At lower scores, the probability of improvement increased towards a maximum of 88% (knee) and 95% for (hips). Conclusion. By our definition of meaningful improvement, patients with preoperative scores above 41 (OKS) and 40 (OHS) should not be routinely referred to secondary care for possible arthroplasty. Using lower thresholds would incrementally increase the probability of meaningful benefit for those referred but will exclude some patients with potential to benefit. The findings are useful to support the complex shared decision-making process in primary care for referral to secondary care; and in secondary care for experienced clinicians counselling patients considering knee or hip arthroplasty, but should not be used in isolation. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(7):941–949

Aims. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of a pilot enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) programme on length of stay (LOS) and post-discharge resource usage via service evaluation and cost analysis. Methods. Between May and December 2019, 100 patients requiring hip or knee arthroplasty were enrolled with the intention that each would have a preadmission discharge plan, a preoperative education class with nominated helper, a day of surgery admission and mobilization, a day one discharge, and access to a 24/7 dedicated helpline. Each was matched with a patient under the pre-existing pathway from the previous year. Results. Mean LOS for ERAS patients was 1.59 days (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14 to 2.04), significantly less than that of the matched cohort (3.01 days; 95% CI 2.56 to 3.46). There were no significant differences in readmission rates for ERAS patients at both 30 and 90 days (six vs four readmissions at 30 days, and nine vs four at 90 days). Despite matching, there were significantly more American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade 3 patients in the ERAS cohort. There was a mean cost saving of £757.26 (95% CI £-1,200.96 to £-313.56) per patient. This is despite small increases in postoperative resource usage in the ERAS patients. Conclusion. ERAS represents a safe and effective means of reducing LOS in primary joint arthroplasty patients. Implementation of ERAS principles has potential financial savings and could increase patient throughput without compromising care. In elective care, a preadmission discharge plan is key. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(11):966–973

Aims. We studied the outcomes of hip and knee arthroplasties in a high-volume arthroplasty centre to determine if patients with morbid obesity (BMI ≥ 40 kg/m. 2. ) had unacceptably worse outcomes as compared to those with BMI < 40 kg/m. 2. . Methods. In a two-year period, 4,711 patients had either total hip arthroplasty (THA; n = 2,370), total knee arthroplasty (TKA; n = 2,109), or unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA; n = 232). Of these patients, 392 (8.3%) had morbid obesity. We compared duration of operation, anaesthetic time, length of stay (LOS), LOS > three days, out of hours attendance, emergency department attendance, readmission to hospital, return to theatre, and venous thromboembolism up to 90 days. Readmission for wound infection was recorded to one year. Oxford scores were recorded preoperatively and at one year postoperatively. Results. On average, the morbidly obese had longer operating times (63 vs 58 minutes), longer anaesthetic times (31 vs 28 minutes), increased LOS (3.7 vs 3.5 days), and significantly more readmissions for wound infection (1.0% vs 0.3%). There were no statistically significant differences in either suspected or confirmed venous thromboembolism. Improvement in Oxford scores were equivalent. Conclusion. Although morbidly obese patients had less favourable outcomes, we do not feel that the magnitude of difference is clinically significant when applied to an individual, particularly when improvement in Oxford scores were unrelated to BMI. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(7):515–521

In this study we used subject-specific finite element analysis to investigate the mechanical effects of rotational acetabular osteotomy (RAO) on the hip joint and analysed the correlation between various radiological measurements and mechanical stress in the hip joint. We evaluated 13 hips in 12 patients (two men and ten women, mean age at surgery 32.0 years; 19 to 46) with developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) who were treated by RAO. Subject-specific finite element models were constructed from CT data. The centre–edge (CE) angle, acetabular head index (AHI), acetabular angle and acetabular roof angle (ARA) were measured on anteroposterior pelvic radiographs taken before and after RAO. The relationship between equivalent stress in the hip joint and radiological measurements was analysed. The equivalent stress in the acetabulum decreased from 4.1 MPa (2.7 to 6.5) pre-operatively to 2.8 MPa (1.8 to 3.6) post-operatively (p < 0.01). There was a moderate correlation between equivalent stress in the acetabulum and the radiological measurements: CE angle (R = –0.645, p < 0.01); AHI (R = –0.603, p < 0.01); acetabular angle (R = 0.484, p = 0.02); and ARA (R = 0.572, p < 0.01). The equivalent stress in the acetabulum of patients with DDH decreased after RAO. Correction of the CE angle, AHI and ARA was considered to be important in reducing the mechanical stress in the hip joint. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:492–7

Aims. To assess the variation in pre-fracture quality of life (QoL) within the UK hip fracture population, and quantify the nature and strength of associations between QoL and other routinely collected patient characteristics and treatment choices. Methods. The World Hip Trauma Evaluation (WHiTE) study, an observational cohort study of UK hip fracture patients, collects a range of routine data and a health-related QoL score (EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D)). Pre-fracture QoL data are summarized and statistical models fitted to understand associations between QoL, patient characteristics, fracture types, and operations. Results. Fitting a multiple linear regression model indicated that 36.5% of the variance in pre-fracture EQ-5D scores was explained by routinely collected patient characteristics: sex (0.14%), age (0.17%), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score (0.73%), Abbreviated Mental Test Score (AMTS; 1.3%), pre-fracture mobility (11.2%), and EQ-5D respondent (participant, relative, or carer; 23.0%). There was considerable variation in pre-fracture EQ-5D scores between operations within fracture types. Participants with trochanteric fractures reported statistically significant but not clinically relevant lower pre-fracture QoL than those with intracapsular fractures. Participants with intracapsular fractures treated with internal fixation or total hip arthroplasty (THA) reported better QoL than those treated with hemiarthroplasty with the overall fittest group receiving THA. Conclusion. Pre-fracture QoL varies considerably between hip fracture patients; it is generally higher in younger than older patients, patients with better mobility, and those patients who live more independently. Pre-fracture QoL is significantly associated with a range of patient characteristics (e.g. age, mobility, residency). These data explain ~35% of the variation in QoL. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2020;9(8):468–476

Aims. Psychological factors play a critical role in patient presentation, satisfaction, and outcomes. Pain catastrophizing, anxiety, and depression are important to consider, as they are associated with poorer outcomes and are potentially modifiable. The aim of this study was to assess the level of pain catastrophizing, anxiety, and depression in patients with a range of hip pathology and to evaluate their relationship with patient-reported psychosocial and functional outcome measures. Patients and Methods. Patients presenting to a tertiary-centre specialist hip clinic were prospectively evaluated for outcomes of pain catastrophizing, anxiety, and depression. Validated assessments were undertaken such as: the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS), the Hospital Anxiety Depression Scale (HADS), and the 12-Item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-12). Patient characteristics and demographics were also recorded. Multiple linear regression modelling, with adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) variable selection, was used for analysis. Results. A total of 328 patients were identified for inclusion, with diagnoses of hip dysplasia (DDH; n = 50), femoroacetabular impingement (FAI; n = 55), lateral trochanteric pain syndrome (LTP; n = 23), hip osteoarthrosis (OA; n = 184), and avascular necrosis of the hip (AVN; n = 16) with a mean age of 31.0 years (14 to 65), 38.5 years (18 to 64), 63.7 years (20 to 78), 63.5 years (18 to 91), and 39.4 years (18 to 71), respectively. The percentage of patients with abnormal levels of pain catastrophizing, anxiety, or depression was: 22.0%, 16.0%, and 12.0% for DDH, respectively; 9.1%, 10.9%, and 7.3% for FAI, respectively; 13.0%, 4.3%, and 4.3% for LTP, respectively; 21.7%, 11.4%, and 14.1% for OA, respectively; and 25.0%, 43.8%, and 6.3% for AVN, respectively. HADS Anxiety (HADSA) and Hip Disability Osteoarthritis Outcome Score Activities of Daily Living subscale (HOOS ADL) predicted the PCS total (adjusted R. 2. = 0.4599). Age, HADS Depression (HADSD), and PCS total predicted HADSA (adjusted R. 2. = 0.4985). Age, HADSA, patient’s percentage of perceived function, PCS total, and HOOS Quality of Life subscale (HOOS QOL) predicted HADSD (adjusted R. 2. = 0.5802). Conclusion. Patients with hip pathology may exhibit significant pain catastrophizing, anxiety, and depression. Identifying these factors and understanding the impact of psychosocial function could help improve patient treatment outcomes. Perioperative multidisciplinary assessment may be a beneficial part of comprehensive orthopaedic hip care. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:800–807

We compared a new fixation system, the Targon Femoral Neck (TFN) hip screw, with the current standard treatment of cannulated screw fixation. This was a single-centre, participant-blinded, randomised controlled trial. Patients aged 65 years and over with either a displaced or undisplaced intracapsular fracture of the hip were eligible. The primary outcome was the risk of revision surgery within one year of fixation. A total of 174 participants were included in the trial. The absolute reduction in risk of revision was of 4.7% (95% CI 14.2 to 22.5) in favour of the TFN hip screw (chi-squared test, p = 0.741), which was less than the pre-specified level of minimum clinically important difference. There were no significant differences in any of the secondary outcome measures. We found no evidence of a clinical difference in the risk of revision surgery between the TFN hip screw and cannulated screw fixation for patients with an intracapsular fracture of the hip. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014;96-B:652–7

Aims

The primary aim was to assess whether preoperative health-related quality of life (HRQoL) was associated with postoperative mortality following total hip arthroplasty (THA) and knee arthroplasty (KA). Secondary aims were to assess whether patient demographics/comorbidities and/or joint-specific function were associated with postoperative mortality.

Aims. The aim of this study was to give estimates of the incidence of component incompatibility in hip and knee arthroplasty and to test the effect of an online, real-time compatibility check. Materials and Methods. Intraoperative barcode registration of arthroplasty implants was introduced in Denmark in 2013. We developed a compatibility database and, from May 2017, real-time compatibility checking was implemented and became part of the registration. We defined four classes of component incompatibility: A-I, A-II, B-I, and B-II, depending on an assessment of the level of risk to the patient (A/B), and on whether incompatibility was knowingly accepted (I/II). Results. A total of 26 524 arthroplasties were analyzed. From 12 307 procedures that were undertaken before implementation of the compatibility check, 21 class A incompatibilities were identified (real- or high-risk combinations; 0.17%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.11 to 0.26). From 5692 hip and 6615 knee procedures prior to implementation of the compatibility check, we found rates of class A-I incompatibility (real- or high-risk combinations unknowingly inserted) of 0.14% (95% CI 0.06 to 0.28) and 0.17% (95% CI 0.08 to 0.30), respectively. From 14 217 procedures after the introduction of compatibility checking (7187 hips and 7030 knees), eight class A incompatibilities (0.06%; 95% CI 0.02 to 0.11) were identified. This difference was statistically significant (p = 0.008). Conclusion. Our data presents validated estimates of the baseline incidence of incompatibility events for hip and knee arthroplasty procedures and shows that a significant reduction in class A incompatibility events is possible using a web-based recording system. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:960–969

Aims. A systematic literature review focusing on how long before surgery concurrent viral or bacterial infections (respiratory and urinary infections) should be treated in hip fracture patients, and if there is evidence for delaying this surgery. Methods. A total of 11 databases were examined using the COre, Standard, Ideal (COSI) protocol. Bibliographic searches (no chronological or linguistic restriction) were conducted using, among other methods, the Patient, Intervention, Comparison, Outcome (PICO) template. We followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines for flow diagram and checklist. Final reading of the complete texts was conducted in English, French, and Spanish. Classification of papers was completed within five levels of evidence (LE). Results. There were a total of 621 hits (526 COre; 95 Standard, Ideal) for screening identification, and 107 records were screened. Overall 67 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility, and 21 articles were included for the study question. A total of 46 full-text articles were excluded with reasons. No studies could be included in quantitative synthesis (meta-analyses), and there were many confounding variables including surgeons’ experience, prosthesis models used, and surgical technique. Conclusion. Patients with hip fracture and with a viral infection in the upper respiratory tract or without major clinical symptoms should be operated on as soon as possible (LE: I-III). There is no evidence that patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) should be treated differently. In relation to pneumonia, its prevention is a major issue. Antibiotics should be administered if surgery is delayed by > 72 hours or if bacterial infection is present in the lower respiratory tract (LE: III-V). In patients with hip fracture and urinary tract infection (UTI), delaying surgery may provoke further complications (LE: I). However, diabetic or immunocompromised patients may benefit from immediate antibiotic treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2020;9(12):884–893

Aims. To establish if COVID-19 has worsened outcomes in patients with AO 31 A or B type hip fractures. Methods. Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data was performed for a five-week period from 20 March 2020 and the same time period in 2019. The primary outcome was mortality at 30 days. Secondary outcomes were COVID-19 infection, perioperative pulmonary complications, time to theatre, type of anaesthesia, operation, grade of surgeon, fracture type, postoperative intensive care admission, venous thromboembolism, dislocation, infection rates, and length of stay. Results. In all, 76 patients with hip fractures were identified in each group. All patients had 30-day follow-up. There was no difference in age, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification or residence at time of injury. However, three in each group were not fit for surgery. No significant difference was found in 30-day mortality; ten patients (13%) in 2019 and 11 patients (14%) in 2020 (p = 0.341). In the 2020 cohort, ten patients tested positive for COVID-19, two (20%) of whom died. There was no significant increase in postoperative pulmonary complications. Median time to theatre was 20 hours (interquartile range (IQR) 16 to 25) in 2019 versus 23 hours (IQR 18 to 30) in 2020 (p = 0.130). Regional anaesthesia increased from 24 (33%) cases in 2019 to 46 (63%) cases in 2020, but ten (14%) required conversion to general anaesthesia. In both groups, 53 (70%) operations were done by trainees. Hemiarthroplasty for 31 B type fractures was the most common operation. No significant difference was found for intensive care admission or 30-day venous thromboembolism, dislocation or infection, or length of stay. Conclusion. Little information exists on mortality and complications after hip fracture during the COVID-19 pandemic. At the time of writing, no other study of outcomes in the UK has been published. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-7:415–419

Aims

The aims were to assess whether preoperative joint-specific function (JSF) and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) were associated with level of clinical frailty in patients waiting for a primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) or knee arthroplasty (KA).

Aims. To monitor the performance of services for developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) in Northern Ireland and identify potential improvements to enhance quality of service and plan for the future. Methods. This was a prospective observational study, involving all infants treated for DDH between 2011 and 2017. Children underwent clinical assessment and radiological investigation as per the regional surveillance policy. The regional radiology data was interrogated to quantify the use of ultrasound and ionizing radiation for this population. Results. Evidence-based changes were made to the Northern Ireland screening programme, including an increase in ultrasound scanning capacity and expansion of nurse-led screening clinics. The number of infant hip ultrasound scans increased from 4,788 in 2011, to approximately 7,000 in 2013 and subsequent years. The number of hip radiographs on infants of less than one year of age fell from 7,381 to 2,208 per year. There was a modest increase in the treatment rate from 10.9 to 14.3 per 1,000 live births but there was a significant reduction in the number of closed hip reductions. The incidence of infants diagnosed with DDH after one year of age was 0.30 per 1,000 live births over the entire period. Conclusion. Improving compliance with the regional infant hip screening protocols led to reduction in operative procedures and reduced the number of pelvic radiographs of infants. We conclude that performance monitoring of screening programmes for DDH is essential to provide a quality service. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(4):495–500

Aims. To determine the trajectories of patient reported pain and functional disability over five years following total hip arthroplasty (THA) or total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Methods. A prospective, longitudinal cohort sub-study within the National Joint Registry (NJR) was undertaken. In all, 20,089 patients who underwent primary THA and 22,489 who underwent primary TKA between 2009 and 2010 were sent Oxford Hip Score (OHS) and Oxford Knee Score (OKS) questionnaires at six months, and one, three, and five years postoperatively. OHS and OKS were disaggregated into pain and function subscales. A k-means clustering procedure assigned each patient to a longitudinal trajectory group for pain and function. Ordinal regression was used to predict trajectory group membership using baseline OHS and OKS score, age, BMI, index of multiple deprivation, sex, ethnicity, geographical location, and American Society of Anesthesiologists grade. Results. Data described two discrete trajectories for pain and function: ‘level 1’ responders (around 70% of cases) in whom a high level of improvement is sustained over five years, and ‘level 2’ responders who had sustained improvement, but at a lower level. Baseline patient variables were only weak predictors of pain trajectory and modest predictors of function trajectory. Those with worse baseline pain and function tended to show a greater likelihood of following a ‘level 2’ trajectory. Six-month patient-reported outcome measures data reliably predicted the class of five-year outcome trajectory for both pain and function. Conclusion. The available preoperative patient variables were not reliable predictors of postoperative pain and function after THA and TKA. Reviewing patient outcomes at six months postoperatively is a reliable indicator of outcome at five years. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(6):1111–1118

Aims. To assess how the cost-effectiveness of total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) varies with age, sex, and preoperative Oxford Hip or Knee Score (OHS/OKS); and to identify the patient groups for whom THA/TKA is cost-effective. Methods. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model from a United Kingdom NHS perspective, informed by published analyses of patient-level data. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of THA and TKA in adults with hip or knee osteoarthritis compared with having no arthroplasty surgery during the ten-year time horizon. Results. THA and TKA cost < £7,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained at all preoperative scores below the absolute referral thresholds calculated previously (40 for OHS and 41 for OKS). Furthermore, THA cost < £20,000/QALY for patients with OHS of ≤ 45, while TKA was cost-effective for patients with OKS of ≤ 43, since the small improvements in quality of life outweighed the cost of surgery and any subsequent revisions. Probabilistic and one-way sensitivity analyses demonstrated that there is little uncertainty around the conclusions. Conclusion. If society is willing to pay £20,000 per QALY gained, THA and TKA are cost-effective for nearly all patients who currently undergo surgery, including all patients at and above our calculated absolute referral thresholds. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(7):950–958