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The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 72-B, Issue 5 | Pages 779 - 783
1 Sep 1990
Kim Y

The incidence of deep vein thrombosis in 244 patients who had total knee replacement has been studied. In 120 the prosthesis was cemented and in 124 it was cementless. In all cases the replacement was primary and a porous-coated prosthesis with a porous-coated central tibial stem was used. Deep vein thrombosis was diagnosed by venography, and pulmonary embolism by perfusion scanning. The incidence of deep vein thrombosis in the cementless knees (23.8%) and in the cemented (25%) was approximately the same. The only significant predisposing factors for deep vein thrombosis in both groups were obesity, prolonged postoperative immobilisation, previous venous disease and hyperlipidaemia.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 95-B, Issue 2 | Pages 239 - 243
1 Feb 2013
Liebs T Herzberg W Gluth J Rüther W Haasters J Russlies M Hassenpflug J

Although the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities (WOMAC) osteoarthritis index was originally developed for the assessment of non-operative treatment, it is commonly used to evaluate patients undergoing either total hip (THR) or total knee replacement (TKR). We assessed the importance of the 17 WOMAC function items from the perspective of 1198 patients who underwent either THR (n = 704) or TKR (n = 494) in order to develop joint-specific short forms. After these patients were administered the WOMAC pre-operatively and at three, six, 12 and 24 months’ follow-up, they were asked to nominate an item of the function scale that was most important to them. The items chosen were significantly different between patients undergoing THR and those undergoing TKR (p < 0.001), and there was a shift in the priorities after surgery in both groups. Setting a threshold for prioritised items of ≥ 5% across all follow-up, eight items were selected for THR and seven for TKR, of which six items were common to both. The items comprising specific WOMAC-THR and TKR function short forms were found to be equally responsive compared with the original WOMAC function form.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:239–43.


Bone & Joint Research
Vol. 11, Issue 11 | Pages 826 - 834
17 Nov 2022
Kawai T Nishitani K Okuzu Y Goto K Kuroda Y Kuriyama S Nakamura S Matsuda S

Aims. The preventive effects of bisphosphonates on articular cartilage in non-arthritic joints are unclear. This study aimed to investigate the effects of oral bisphosphonates on the rate of joint space narrowing in the non-arthritic hip. Methods. We retrospectively reviewed standing whole-leg radiographs from patients who underwent knee arthroplasties from 2012 to 2020 at our institute. Patients with previous hip surgery, Kellgren–Lawrence grade ≥ II hip osteoarthritis, hip dysplasia, or rheumatoid arthritis were excluded. The rate of hip joint space narrowing was measured in 398 patients (796 hips), and the effects of the use of bisphosphonates were examined using the multivariate regression model and the propensity score matching (1:2) model. Results. A total of 45 of 398 (11.3%) eligible patients were taking an oral bisphosphonate at the time of knee surgery, with a mean age of 75.8 years (SD 6.2) in bisphosphonate users and 75.7 years (SD 6.8) in non-users. The mean joint space narrowing rate was 0.04 mm/year (SD 0.11) in bisphosphonate users and 0.12 mm/year (SD 0.25) in non-users (p < 0.001). In the multivariate model, age (standardized coefficient = 0.0867, p = 0.016) and the use of a bisphosphonate (standardized coefficient = −0.182, p < 0.001) were associated with the joint space narrowing rate. After successfully matching 43 bisphosphonate users and 86 non-users, the joint narrowing rate was smaller in bisphosphonate users (p < 0.001). Conclusion. The use of bisphosphonates is associated with decreased joint degeneration in non-arthritic hips after knee arthroplasty. Bisphosphonates slow joint degeneration, thus maintaining the thickness of joint cartilage in the normal joint or during the early phase of osteoarthritis. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2022;11(11):826–834


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 9 | Pages 704 - 712
14 Sep 2023
Mercier MR Koucheki R Lex JR Khoshbin A Park SS Daniels TR Halai MM

Aims. This study aimed to investigate the risk of postoperative complications in COVID-19-positive patients undergoing common orthopaedic procedures. Methods. Using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Programme (NSQIP) database, patients who underwent common orthopaedic surgery procedures from 1 January to 31 December 2021 were extracted. Patient preoperative COVID-19 status, demographics, comorbidities, type of surgery, and postoperative complications were analyzed. Propensity score matching was conducted between COVID-19-positive and -negative patients. Multivariable regression was then performed to identify both patient and provider risk factors independently associated with the occurrence of 30-day postoperative adverse events. Results. Of 194,121 included patients, 740 (0.38%) were identified to be COVID-19-positive. Comparison of comorbidities demonstrated that COVID-19-positive patients had higher rates of diabetes, heart failure, and pulmonary disease. After propensity matching and controlling for all preoperative variables, multivariable analysis found that COVID-19-positive patients were at increased risk of several postoperative complications, including: any adverse event, major adverse event, minor adverse event, death, venous thromboembolism, and pneumonia. COVID-19-positive patients undergoing hip/knee arthroplasty and trauma surgery were at increased risk of 30-day adverse events. Conclusion. COVID-19-positive patients undergoing orthopaedic surgery had increased odds of many 30-day postoperative complications, with hip/knee arthroplasty and trauma surgery being the most high-risk procedures. These data reinforce prior literature demonstrating increased risk of venous thromboembolic events in the acute postoperative period. Clinicians caring for patients undergoing orthopaedic procedures should be mindful of these increased risks, and attempt to improve patient care during the ongoing global pandemic. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(9):704–712


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 85-B, Issue 4 | Pages 517 - 520
1 May 2003
Mackay DC Siddique MS

We have compared the survival of 67 revision arthroplasties of the knee undertaken for aseptic loosening with and without the retention of a secure, cemented femoral component. All the patients had undergone a single primary procedure at a mean of nine years previously. In group I (25 knees) the original femoral component was secure and was retained. There were no abrasions or osteolysis. The knees were stable, normally aligned, with minimal bone loss. In group II 42 knees did not fulfil these criteria and underwent revision of both components. The mean follow-up was four years.

Re-revision for loosening was required in seven knees (28%) in group I and three (7%) in group II (p < 0.01). The remaining knees function well with Knee Society scores averaging 84/69 and no radiological evidence of osteolysis. When revising cemented implants, retention of a secure femoral component cannot be recommended even when conditions appear to be suitable.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 82-B, Issue 3 | Pages 436 - 444
1 Apr 2000
van Loon CJM de Waal Malefijt MC Buma P Stolk PWT Verdonschot N Tromp AM Huiskes R Barneveld A

The properties of impacted morsellised bone graft (MBG) in revision total knee arthroplasty (TKA) were studied in 12 horses. The left hind metatarsophalangeal joint was replaced by a human TKA. The horses were then randomly divided into graft and control groups. In the graft group, a unicondylar, lateral uncontained defect was created in the third metatarsal bone and reconstructed using autologous MBG before cementing the TKA. In the control group, a cemented TKA was implanted without the bone resection and grafting procedure. After four to eight months, the animals were killed and a biomechanical loading test was performed with a cyclic load equivalent to the horse’s body-weight to study mechanical stability. After removal of the prosthesis, the distal third metatarsal bone was studied radiologically, histologically and by quantitative and micro CT.

Biomechanical testing showed that the differences in deformation between the graft and the control condyles were not significant for either elastic or time-dependent deformations. The differences in bone mineral density (BMD) between the graft and the control condyles were not significant. The BMD of the MBG was significantly lower than that in the other regions in the same limb. Micro CT showed a significant difference in the degree of anisotropy between the graft and host bone, even although the structure of the area of the MBG had trabecular orientation in the direction of the axial load. Histological analysis revealed that all the grafts were revascularised and completely incorporated into a new trabecular structure with few or no remnants of graft. Our study provides a basis for the clinical application of this technique with MBG in revision TKA.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 74-B, Issue 2 | Pages 233 - 238
1 Mar 1992
Albrektsson B Carlsson L Freeman M Herberts P Ryd L

We studied the effect of a layer of cement placed under the tibial component of Freeman-Samuelson total knee prostheses with a metal back and an 80 mm intramedullary stem, using roentgen stereophotogrammetry to measure the migration of the tibial component during one year in 13 uncemented and 16 cemented knees. The addition of cement produced a significant reduction in migration at one year, from a mean of 1.5 mm to one of 0.5 mm (p less than 0.01), including a significant reduction in pure subsidence. One year postoperatively the clinical results were similar between the groups, but, at three years, one uncemented knee had required revision.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 3, Issue 12 | Pages 977 - 990
23 Dec 2022
Latijnhouwers D Pedersen A Kristiansen E Cannegieter S Schreurs BW van den Hout W Nelissen R Gademan M

Aims. This study aimed to investigate the estimated change in primary and revision arthroplasty rate in the Netherlands and Denmark for hips, knees, and shoulders during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 (COVID-period). Additional points of focus included the comparison of patient characteristics and hospital type (2019 vs COVID-period), and the estimated loss of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and impact on waiting lists. Methods. All hip, knee, and shoulder arthroplasties (2014 to 2020) from the Dutch Arthroplasty Register, and hip and knee arthroplasties from the Danish Hip and Knee Arthroplasty Registries, were included. The expected number of arthroplasties per month in 2020 was estimated using Poisson regression, taking into account changes in age and sex distribution of the general Dutch/Danish population over time, calculating observed/expected (O/E) ratios. Country-specific proportions of patient characteristics and hospital type were calculated per indication category (osteoarthritis/other elective/acute). Waiting list outcomes including QALYs were estimated by modelling virtual waiting lists including 0%, 5% and 10% extra capacity. Results. During COVID-period, fewer arthroplasties were performed than expected (Netherlands: 20%; Denmark: 5%), with the lowest O/E in April. In the Netherlands, more acute indications were prioritized, resulting in more American Society of Anesthesiologists grade III to IV patients receiving surgery. In both countries, no other patient prioritization was present. Relatively more arthroplasties were performed in private hospitals. There were no clinically relevant differences in revision arthroplasties between pre-COVID and COVID-period. Estimated total health loss depending on extra capacity ranged from: 19,800 to 29,400 QALYs (Netherlands): 1,700 to 2,400 QALYs (Denmark). With no extra capacity it will take > 30 years to deplete the waiting lists. Conclusion. The COVID-19 pandemic had an enormous negative effect on arthroplasty rates, but more in the Netherlands than Denmark. In the Netherlands, hip and shoulder patients with acute indications were prioritized. Private hospitals filled in part of the capacity gap. QALY loss due to postponed arthroplasty surgeries is considerable. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(12):977–990


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 3 | Pages 221 - 226
1 Mar 2023
Wilton T Skinner JA Haddad FS

Recent publications have drawn attention to the fact that some brands of joint replacement may contain variants which perform significantly worse (or better) than their ‘siblings’. As a result, the National Joint Registry has performed much more detailed analysis on the larger families of knee arthroplasties in order to identify exactly where these differences may be present and may hitherto have remained hidden. The analysis of the Nexgen knee arthroplasty brand identified that some posterior-stabilized combinations have particularly high revision rates for aseptic loosening of the tibia, and consequently a medical device recall has been issued for the Nexgen ‘option’ tibial component which was implicated. More elaborate signal detection is required in order to identify such variation in results in a routine fashion if patients are to be protected from such variation in outcomes between closely related implant types. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(3):221–226


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 6 | Pages 457 - 462
26 Jun 2023
Bredgaard Jensen C Gromov K Petersen PB Jørgensen CC Kehlet H Troelsen A

Aims. Medial unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (mUKA) is an advised treatment for anteromedial knee osteoarthritis. While long-term survival after mUKA is well described, reported incidences of short-term surgical complications vary and the effect of surgical usage on complications is less established. We aimed to describe the overall occurrence and treatment of surgical complications within 90 days of mUKA, as well as occurrence in high-usage centres compared to low-usage centres. Methods. mUKAs performed in eight fast-track centres from February 2010 to June 2018 were included from the Lundbeck Foundation Centre for Fast-track Hip and Knee Replacement Database. All readmissions within 90 days of surgery underwent chart review and readmissions related to the surgical wound or the prosthesis were recorded. Centres were categorized as high-usage centres when using mUKA in ≥ 20% of annual knee arthroplasties. The occurrence of complications between high- and low-usage centres were compared using Fisher’s exact test. Results. We included 3,757 mUKAs: 2,377 mUKAs from high-usage centres and 1,380 mUKAs from low-usage centres. Surgical complications within 90 days occurred in 69 cases (1.8%), 45 (1.9%) in high-usage centres and 24 (1.7%) in low-usage centres (odds ratio (OR) 1.1 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65 to 1.8)). The most frequent complications were periprosthetic joint infections (PJIs) (n = 18; 0.48%), wound-related issues (n = 14; 0.37%), and periprosthetic fractures (n = 13; 0.35%). Bearing dislocations (n = 7; 0.19%) occurred primarily in procedures from high-usage centres. In high-usage centres, seven periprosthetic fractures (0.29%) occurred compared to six (0.43%) in low-usage centres (OR 0.68 (95% CI 0.20 to 2.0)). In high-usage centres, nine PJIs (0.38%) occurred compared to nine (0.65%) in low-usage centres (OR 0.58 (95% CI 0.22 to 1.6)). Conclusion. Surgical complications are rare after fast-track mUKA surgery and with no difference in overall occurrence of surgical complications between high- and low-usage centres, although the risk of some specific surgical complications may favour high-usage centres. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(6):457–462


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 74-B, Issue 2 | Pages 239 - 242
1 Mar 1992
Grewal R Rimmer M Freeman M

We determined the cumulative survival rates, in arthroplasty of the knee, of three designs of tibial component, using a change of position on standard radiographs or revision for aseptic loosening as criteria of failure. The average migration of each of the three designs in the first postoperative year is known from roentgen stereophotogrammetric analysis reported by other authors. The ranking order of the components as judged by cumulative survival is the same as that determined by early migration. This finding supports the view that the measurement of early migration can predict late aseptic loosening and therefore that such measurements are clinically of value.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 4 | Pages 261 - 270
1 Apr 2021
Hotchen AJ Khan SA Khan MA Seah M Charface ZH Khan Z Khan W Kang N Melton JTK McCaskie AW McDonnell SM

Aims. To investigate factors that contribute to patient decisions regarding attendance for arthroplasty during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods. A postal questionnaire was distributed to patients on the waiting list for hip or knee arthroplasty in a single tertiary centre within the UK. Patient factors that may have influenced the decision to attend for arthroplasty, global quality of life (QoL) (EuroQol five-dimension three-level (EQ-5D-3L)), and joint-specific QoL (Oxford Hip or Knee Score) were assessed. Patients were asked at which ‘COVID-alert’ level they would be willing to attend an NHS and a “COVID-light” hospital for arthroplasty. Independent predictors were assessed using multivariate logistic regression. Results. Of 540 distributed questionnaires, 400 (74.1%; 236 awaiting hip arthroplasty, 164 awaiting knee arthroplasty) complete responses were received and included. Less than half (48.2%) were willing to attend for hip or knee arthroplasty while a UK COVID-19 epidemic was in circulation (COVID-alert levels 3 to 5). Patients with worse joint-specific QoL had a preference to proceed with surgery at COVID-alert levels 3 to 5 compared to levels 1 and 2 (hip arthroplasty odds ratio (OR) 1.54 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.45 to 1.63); knee arthroplasty OR 1.16 (1.07 to 1.26)). The odds of patients with worse joint-specific QoL being willing to attend for surgery at COVID-alert levels 3 to 5 increased further if surgery in a private, “COVID-light” hospital was available (hip arthroplasty OR 3.50 (95% CI 3.26 to 3.71); knee arthroplasty OR 1.41 (95% CI 1.29 to 1.53). Conclusion. Patient decisions surrounding elective surgery have been influenced by the global COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the importance of patient involvement in ensuring optimized provision of elective surgery during these challenging times. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(4):261–270


Bone & Joint 360
Vol. 12, Issue 5 | Pages 18 - 21
1 Oct 2023

The October 2023 Knee Roundup. 360. looks at: Cementless total knee arthroplasty is associated with more revisions within a year; Kinematically and mechanically aligned total knee arthroplasties: long-term follow-up; Aspirin thromboprophylaxis following primary total knee arthroplasty is associated with a lower rate of early periprosthetic joint infection compared with other agents; The impact of a revision arthroplasty network on patient outcomes; Re-revision knee arthroplasty in a tertiary centre: how does infection impact on outcomes?; Does the knee joint have its own microbiome?; Revision knee surgery provision in Scotland; Aspirin is a safe and effective thromboembolic prophylaxis after total knee arthroplasty: a systematic review and meta-analysis; Patellar resurfacing and kneeling ability after total knee arthroplasty: a systematic review


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 72-B, Issue 3 | Pages 412 - 417
1 May 1990
Kim Y

In 44 consecutive patients, 60 porous-coated anatomic total knee (PCA) prostheses with a porous-coated central tibial stem were implanted without using cement. The clinical results and bony remodelling have been assessed after five years' follow-up. The average Hospital for Special Surgery knee score was 33.1 before operation and 95.7 at the latest follow-up, while the average range of movement improved from 63 degrees to 123 degrees. No subsidence or migration of the components was seen. A radiodense line appeared around the components at six months to one year after the operation and became more dense with time. There was no evidence of bone resorption related to stress-shielding in the tibial plateau.


Bone & Joint 360
Vol. 13, Issue 3 | Pages 18 - 20
3 Jun 2024

The June 2024 Hip & Pelvis Roundup. 360. looks at: Machine learning did not outperform conventional competing risk modelling to predict revision arthroplasty; Unravelling the risks: incidence and reoperation rates for femoral fractures post-total hip arthroplasty; Spinal versus general anaesthesia for hip arthroscopy: a COVID-19 pandemic- and opioid epidemic-driven study; Development and validation of a deep-learning model to predict total hip arthroplasty on radiographs; Ambulatory centres lead in same-day hip and knee arthroplasty success; Exploring the impact of smokeless tobacco on total hip arthroplasty outcomes: a deeper dive into postoperative complications


Bone & Joint 360
Vol. 12, Issue 6 | Pages 20 - 23
1 Dec 2023

The December 2023 Knee Roundup. 360. looks at: Obesity is associated with greater improvement in patient-reported outcomes following primary total knee arthroplasty; Does mild flexion of the femoral prosthesis in total knee arthroplasty result in better early postoperative outcomes?; Robotic or manual total knee arthroplasty: a randomized controlled trial; Patient-relevant outcomes following first revision total knee arthroplasty, by diagnosis: an analysis of implant survivorship, mortality, serious medical complications, and patient-reported outcome measures using the National Joint Registry data set; Sagittal alignment in total knee arthroplasty: are there any discrepancies between robotic-assisted and manual axis orientation?; Tourniquet use does not impact recovery trajectory in total knee arthroplasty; Impact of proximal tibial varus anatomy on survivorship after medial unicondylar knee arthroplasty; Bone cement directly to the implant in primary total knee arthroplasty?; Maintaining joint line obliquity optimizes outcomes in patients with constitutionally varus knees


Bone & Joint 360
Vol. 11, Issue 6 | Pages 15 - 18
1 Dec 2022

The December 2022 Hip & Pelvis Roundup. 360. looks at: Fix and replace: simultaneous fracture fixation and hip arthroplasty for acetabular fractures in older patients; Is the revision rate for femoral neck fracture lower for total hip arthroplasty than for hemiarthroplasty?; Femoral periprosthetic fractures: data from the COMPOSE cohort study; Dual-mobility cups and fracture of the femur; What’s the deal with outcomes for hip and knee arthroplasty outcomes internationally?; Osteochondral lesions of the femoral head: is costal cartilage the answer?


Bone & Joint 360
Vol. 12, Issue 1 | Pages 17 - 20
1 Feb 2023

The February 2023 Hip & Pelvis Roundup. 360. looks at: Total hip arthroplasty or internal fixation for hip fracture?; Significant deterioration in quality of life and increased frailty in patients waiting more than six months for total hip or knee arthroplasty: a cross-sectional multicentre study; Long-term cognitive trajectory after total joint arthroplasty; Costal cartilage grafting for a large osteochondral lesion of the femoral head; Foley catheters not a problem in the short term; Revision hips still a mortality burden?; How to position implants with a robotic arm; Uncemented stems in hip fracture?


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 103-B, Issue 1 | Pages 46 - 55
1 Jan 2021
Grzelecki D Walczak P Szostek M Grajek A Rak S Kowalczewski J

Aims. Calprotectin (CLP) is produced in neutrophils and monocytes and released into body fluids as a result of inflammation or infection. The aim of this study was to evaluate the utility of blood and synovial CLP in the diagnosis of chronic periprosthetic joint infection (PJI). Methods. Blood and synovial fluid samples were collected prospectively from 195 patients undergoing primary or revision hip and knee arthroplasty. Patients were divided into five groups: 1) primary total hip and knee arthroplasty performed due to idiopathic osteoarthritis (OA; n = 60); 2) revision hip and knee arthroplasty performed due to aseptic failure of the implant (AR-TJR; n = 40); 3) patients with a confirmed diagnosis of chronic PJI awaiting surgery (n = 45); 4) patients who have finished the first stage of the PJI treatment with the use of cemented spacer and were qualified for replantation procedure (SR-TJR; n = 25), and 5) patients with rheumatoid arthritis undergoing primary total hip and knee arthroplasty (RA; n = 25). CLP concentrations were measured quantitatively in the blood and synovial fluid using an immunoturbidimetric assay. Additionally, blood and synovial CRP, blood interleukin-6 (IL-6), and ESR were measured, and a leucocyte esterase (LE) strip test was performed. Results. Patients with PJI had higher CLP concentrations than those undergoing aseptic revision in blood (median PJI 2.14 mg/l (interquartile range (IQR) 1.37 to 3.56) vs AR-TJR 0.66 mg/l (IQR 0.3 to 0.83); p < 0.001) and synovial fluid samples (median PJI 20.46 mg/l (IQR 14.3 to 22.36) vs AR-TJR 0.7 mg/l (IQR 0.41 to 0.95); p < 0.001). With a cut-off value of 1.0 mg/l, blood CLP showed a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 93.3%, 87.5%, 89.4%, and 92.1%, respectively. For synovial fluid with a cut-off value of 1.5 mg/l, these were 95.6%, 95%, 95.5%, and 95%, respectively. Conclusion. This small study suggests that synovial and blood CLP are useful markers in chronic PJI diagnosis with similar or higher sensitivity and specificity than routinely used markers such as CRP, ESR, IL-6, and LE. CLP was not useful to differentiate patients with PJI from those with rheumatoid arthritis. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(1):46–55


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 2 | Pages 103 - 110
1 Feb 2021
Oussedik S MacIntyre S Gray J McMeekin P Clement ND Deehan DJ

Aims. The primary aim is to estimate the current and potential number of patients on NHS England orthopaedic elective waiting lists by November 2020. The secondary aims are to model recovery strategies; review the deficit of hip and knee arthroplasty from National Joint Registry (NJR) data; and assess the cost of returning to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers. Methods. A model of referral, waiting list, and eventual surgery was created and calibrated using historical data from NHS England (April 2017 to March 2020) and was used to investigate the possible consequences of unmet demand resulting from fewer patients entering the treatment pathway and recovery strategies. NJR data were used to estimate the deficit of hip and knee arthroplasty by August 2020 and NHS tariff costs were used to calculate the financial burden. Results. By November 2020, the elective waiting list in England is predicted to be between 885,286 and 1,028,733. If reduced hospital capacity is factored into the model, returning to full capacity by November, the waiting list could be as large as 1.4 million. With a 30% increase in productivity, it would take 20 months if there was no hidden burden of unreferred patients, and 48 months if there was a hidden burden, to return to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers. By August 2020, the estimated deficits of hip and knee arthroplasties from NJR data were 18,298 (44.8%) and 16,567 (38.6%), respectively, compared to the same time period in 2019. The cost to clear this black log would be £198,811,335. Conclusion. There will be up to 1.4 million patients on elective orthopaedic waiting lists in England by November 2020, approximate three-times the pre-COVID-19 average. There are various strategies for recovery to return to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers reliant on increasing capacity, but these have substantial cost implications. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(2):103–110