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The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 90-B, Issue 11 | Pages 1468 - 1472
1 Nov 2008
Kim H Moon S Kim H Moon E Chun H Jung M Lee H

We reviewed 87 patients who had undergone expansive cervical laminoplasty between 1999 and 2005. These were divided into two groups: those who had diabetes mellitus and those who did not. There were 31 patients in the diabetes group and 56 in the control group. Although a significant improvement in the Japanese Orthopaedic Association score was seen in both groups, the post-operative recovery rate in the control group was better than that of the diabetic group. The patients’ age and symptom duration adversely affected the rate of recovery in the diabetic group only. Smoking did not affect the outcome in either group. A logistic regression analysis found diabetes and signal changes in the spinal cord on MRI to be significant risk factors for a poor outcome (odds ratio 2.86, 3.02, respectively). Furthermore, the interaction of diabetes with smoking and/or age increased this risk. We conclude that diabetes mellitus, or the interaction of this with old age, can adversely affect outcome after cervical laminoplasty. However, smoking alone cannot be regarded as a risk factor


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 11 | Pages 1249 - 1255
1 Nov 2022
Williamson TK Passfall L Ihejirika-Lomedico R Espinosa A Owusu-Sarpong S Lanre-Amos T Schoenfeld AJ Passias PG

Aims. Postoperative complication rates remain relatively high after adult spinal deformity (ASD) surgery. The extent to which modifiable patient-related factors influence complication rates in patients with ASD has not been effectively evaluated. The aim of this retrospective cohort study was to evaluate the association between modifiable patient-related factors and complications after corrective surgery for ASD. Methods. ASD patients with two-year data were included. Complications were categorized as follows: any complication, major, medical, surgical, major mechanical, major radiological, and reoperation. Modifiable risk factors included smoking, obesity, osteoporosis, alcohol use, depression, psychiatric diagnosis, and hypertension. Patients were stratified by the degree of baseline deformity (low degree of deformity (LowDef)/high degree of deformity (HighDef): below or above 20°) and age (Older/Younger: above or below 65 years). Complication rates were compared for modifiable risk factors in each age/deformity group, using multivariable logistic regression analysis to adjust for confounders. Results. A total of 480 ASD patients met the inclusion criteria. By two years, complication rates were 72% ≥ one complication, 28% major, 21% medical, 27% surgical, 11% major radiological, 8% major mechanical, and 22% required reoperation. Younger LowDef patients with osteoporosis were more likely to suffer either a major mechanical (odds ratio (OR) 5.9 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1 to 36.9); p = 0.048) or radiological complication (OR 7.0 (95% CI 1.9 to 25.9); p = 0.003). Younger HighDef patients were much more likely to develop complications if obese, especially major mechanical complications (OR 2.8 (95% CI 1.1 to 8.6); p = 0.044). Older HighDef patients developed more complications when diagnosed with depression, including major radiological complications (OR 3.5 (95% CI 1.1 to 10.6); p = 0.033). Overall, a diagnosis of depression proved to be a risk factor for the development of major radiological complications (OR 2.4 (95% CI 1.3 to 4.5); p = 0.005). Conclusion. Certain modifiable patient-related factors, especially osteoporosis, obesity, and mental health status, are associated with an increased risk of complications after surgery for spinal deformity. Surgeons should look for these conditions when assessing a patient for surgery, and optimize them to the fullest extent possible before proceeding to surgical correction so as to minimize the prospect of postoperative morbidity. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(11):1249–1255


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 7 | Pages 540 - 544
19 Jul 2021
Jensen MM Milosevic S Andersen GØ Carreon L Simony A Rasmussen MM Andersen MØ

Aims. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with poor outcome following coccygectomy on patients with chronic coccydynia and instability of the coccyx. Methods. From the Danish National Spine Registry, DaneSpine, 134 consecutive patients were identified from a single centre who had coccygectomy from 2011 to 2019. Patient demographic data and patient-reported outcomes, including pain measured on a visual analogue scale (VAS), Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), EuroQol five-dimension five-level questionnaire, and 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey questionnaire (SF-36) were obtained at baseline and at one-year follow-up. Patient satisfaction was obtained at follow-up. Regression analysis, including age, sex, smoking status, BMI, duration of symptoms, work status, welfare payment, preoperative VAS, ODI, and SF-36 was performed to identify factors associated with dissatisfaction with results at one-year follow-up. Results. A minimum of one year follow-up was available in 112 patients (84%). Mean age was 41.9 years (15 to 78) and 97 of the patients were female (87%). Regression showed no statistically significant association between the investigated prognostic factors and a poor outcome following coccygectomy. The satisfied group showed a statistically significant improvement in patient-reported outcomes at one-year follow-up from baseline, whereas the dissatisfied group did not show a significant improvement. Conclusion. We did not identify factors associated with poor outcome following coccygectomy. This suggests that neither of the included parameters should be considered contraindications for coccygectomy in patients with chronic coccydynia and instability of the coccyx. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(7):540–544


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 103-B, Issue 1 | Pages 131 - 140
1 Jan 2021
Lai MKL Cheung PWH Samartzis D Karppinen J Cheung KMC Cheung JPY

Aims. To study the associations of lumbar developmental spinal stenosis (DSS) with low back pain (LBP), radicular leg pain, and disability. Methods. This was a cross-sectional study of 2,206 subjects along with L1-S1 axial and sagittal MRI. Clinical and radiological information regarding their demographics, workload, smoking habits, anteroposterior (AP) vertebral canal diameter, spondylolisthesis, and MRI changes were evaluated. Mann-Whitney U tests and chi-squared tests were conducted to search for differences between subjects with and without DSS. Associations of LBP and radicular pain reported within one month (30 days) and one year (365 days) of the MRI, with clinical and radiological information, were also investigated by utilizing univariate and multivariate logistic regressions. Results. Subjects with DSS had higher prevalence of radicular leg pain, more pain-related disability, and lower quality of life (all p < 0.05). Subjects with DSS had 1.5 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.0 to 2.1; p = 0.027) and 1.8 (95% CI 1.3 to 2.6; p = 0.001) times higher odds of having radicular leg pain in the past month and the past year, respectively. However, DSS was not associated with LBP. Although, subjects with a spondylolisthesis had 1.7 (95% CI 1.1 to 2.5; p = 0.011) and 2.0 (95% CI 1.2 to 3.2; p = 0.008) times greater odds to experience LBP in the past month and the past year, respectively. Conclusion. This large-scale study identified DSS as a risk factor of acute and chronic radicular leg pain. DSS was seen in 6.9% of the study cohort and these patients had narrower spinal canals. Subjects with DSS had earlier onset of symptoms, more severe radicular leg pain, which lasted for longer and were more likely to have worse disability and poorer quality of life. In these patients there is an increased likelihood of nerve root compression due to a pre-existing narrowed canal, which is important when planning surgery as patients are likely to require multi-level decompression surgery. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(1):131–140


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 87-B, Issue 7 | Pages 959 - 964
1 Jul 2005
Jansson K Németh G Granath F Jönsson B Blomqvist P

We investigated the pre-operative and one-year post-operative health-related quality of life (HRQOL) outcome by using a Euroqol (EQ-5D) questionnaire in 263 patients who had undergone surgery for herniation of a lumbar disc. Data from the National Swedish Register for lumbar spinal surgery between 2001 and 2002 were used and, in addition, a comparison between our cohort and a Swedish EQ-5D population survey was performed. We analysed the pre- and post-operative quality of life data, age, gender, smoking habits, pain and walking capacity. The mean age of the patients was 42 years (20 to 66); 155 (59%) were men and 69 (26%) smoked. Pre-operatively, 72 (17%) could walk at least 1 km compared with 200 (76%) postoperatively. The mean EQ-5D score improved from 0.29 to 0.70, and the HRQOL improved in 195 (74%) of the patients. The pre-operative score did not influence the post-operative score. In most patients, all five EQ-5D dimensions improved, but did not reach the level reported by an age- and gender-matched population sample (mean difference 0.17). Predictors for poor outcome were smoking, a short pre-operative walking distance, and a long history of back pain


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 3 | Pages 315 - 322
1 Mar 2023
Geere JH Swamy GN Hunter PR Geere JL Lutchman LN Cook AJ Rai AS

Aims

To identify the incidence and risk factors for five-year same-site recurrent disc herniation (sRDH) after primary single-level lumbar discectomy. Secondary outcome was the incidence and risk factors for five-year sRDH reoperation.

Methods

A retrospective study was conducted using prospectively collected data and patient-reported outcome measures, including the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), between 2008 and 2019. Postoperative sRDH was identified from clinical notes and the centre’s MRI database, with all imaging providers in the region checked for missing events. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate five-year sRDH incidence. Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify independent variables predictive of sRDH, with any variable not significant at the p < 0.1 level removed. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 1 | Pages 53 - 61
1 Jan 2024
Buckland AJ Huynh NV Menezes CM Cheng I Kwon B Protopsaltis T Braly BA Thomas JA

Aims

The aim of this study was to reassess the rate of neurological, psoas-related, and abdominal complications associated with L4-L5 lateral lumbar interbody fusion (LLIF) undertaken using a standardized preoperative assessment and surgical technique.

Methods

This was a multicentre retrospective study involving consecutively enrolled patients who underwent L4-L5 LLIF by seven surgeons at seven institutions in three countries over a five-year period. The demographic details of the patients and the details of the surgery, reoperations and complications, including femoral and non-femoral neuropraxia, thigh pain, weakness of hip flexion, and abdominal complications, were analyzed. Neurological and psoas-related complications attributed to LLIF or posterior instrumentation and persistent symptoms were recorded at one year postoperatively.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 4 | Pages 422 - 430
15 Mar 2023
Riksaasen AS Kaur S Solberg TK Austevoll I Brox J Dolatowski FC Hellum C Kolstad F Lonne G Nygaard ØP Ingebrigtsen T

Aims

Repeated lumbar spine surgery has been associated with inferior clinical outcomes. This study aimed to examine and quantify the impact of this association in a national clinical register cohort.

Methods

This is a population-based study from the Norwegian Registry for Spine surgery (NORspine). We included 26,723 consecutive cases operated for lumbar spinal stenosis or lumbar disc herniation from January 2007 to December 2018. The primary outcome was the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), presented as the proportions reaching a patient-acceptable symptom state (PASS; defined as an ODI raw score ≤ 22) and ODI raw and change scores at 12-month follow-up. Secondary outcomes were the Global Perceived Effect scale, the numerical rating scale for pain, the EuroQoL five-dimensions health questionnaire, occurrence of perioperative complications and wound infections, and working capability. Binary logistic regression analysis was conducted to examine how the number of previous operations influenced the odds of not reaching a PASS.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 11 | Pages 832 - 838
3 Nov 2023
Pichler L Li Z Khakzad T Perka C Pumberger M Schömig F

Aims

Implant-related postoperative spondylodiscitis (IPOS) is a severe complication in spine surgery and is associated with high morbidity and mortality. With growing knowledge in the field of periprosthetic joint infection (PJI), equivalent investigations towards the management of implant-related infections of the spine are indispensable. To our knowledge, this study provides the largest description of cases of IPOS to date.

Methods

Patients treated for IPOS from January 2006 to December 2020 were included. Patient demographics, parameters upon admission and discharge, radiological imaging, and microbiological results were retrieved from medical records. CT and MRI were analyzed for epidural, paravertebral, and intervertebral abscess formation, vertebral destruction, and endplate involvement. Pathogens were identified by CT-guided or intraoperative biopsy, intraoperative tissue sampling, or implant sonication.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 9 | Pages 768 - 775
18 Sep 2024
Chen K Dong X Lu Y Zhang J Liu X Jia L Guo Y Chen X

Aims

Surgical approaches to cervical ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament (OPLL) remain controversial. The purpose of the present study was to analyze and compare the long-term neurological recovery following anterior decompression with fusion (ADF) and posterior laminectomy and fusion with bone graft and internal fixation (PLF) based on > ten-year follow-up outcomes in a single centre.

Methods

Included in this retrospective cohort study were 48 patients (12 females; mean age 55.79 years (SD 8.94)) who were diagnosed with cervical OPLL, received treatment in our centre, and were followed up for 10.22 to 15.25 years. Of them, 24 patients (six females; mean age 52.88 years (SD 8.79)) received ADF, and the other 24 patients (five females; mean age 56.25 years (SD 9.44)) received PLF. Clinical data including age, sex, and the OPLL canal-occupying ratio were analyzed and compared. The primary outcome was Japanese Orthopaedic Association (JOA) score, and the secondary outcome was visual analogue scale neck pain.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 98-B, Issue 1 | Pages 102 - 108
1 Jan 2016
Kang C Kim C Moon J

Aims. The aims of this study were to evaluate the clinical and radiological outcomes of instrumented posterolateral fusion (PLF) performed in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). . Methods. A total of 40 patients with RA and 134 patients without RA underwent instrumented PLF for spinal stenosis between January 2003 and December 2011. The two groups were matched for age, gender, bone mineral density, the history of smoking and diabetes, and number of fusion segments. . The clinical outcomes measures included the visual analogue scale (VAS) and the Korean Oswestry Disability Index (KODI), scored before surgery, one year and two years after surgery. Radiological outcomes were evaluated for problems of fixation, nonunion, and adjacent segment disease (ASD). The mean follow-up was 36.4 months in the RA group and 39.1 months in the non-RA group. Results. Both groups had significant improvement in symptoms one year after surgery, while the RA group showed some deterioration of outcome scores owing to complications during the second year after surgery. Complications occurred at a higher rate in the group with RA (19 patients, 47.5%) than in those without RA (23 patients, 17.1%) (p < 0.001). A total of 15 patients in the RA group (37.5%) required revision surgery, mainly for implant failure and post-operative infection. . Discussion. Multimodal approaches should be considered when performing instrumented PLF in patients with RA to reduce the rate of complications, such as problems of fixation, post-operative infection and nonunion. Take home message: Specific strategies should be undertaken in order to optimise outcomes in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:102–8


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 10 | Pages 1176 - 1181
1 Oct 2024
Helenius L Gerdhem P Ahonen M Syvänen J Jalkanen J Nietosvaara Y Helenius I

Aims

Closed suction subfascial drainage is widely used after instrumented posterior spinal fusion in patients with a spinal deformity. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of this wound drainage on the outcomes in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). This was a further analysis of a randomized, multicentre clinical trial reporting on patients after posterior spinal fusion using segmental pedicle screw instrumentation. In this study the incidence of deep surgical site infection (SSI) and chronic postoperative pain at two years’ follow-up are reported.

Methods

We conducted a randomized, multicentre clinical trial on adolescents undergoing posterior spinal fusion for AIS using segmental pedicle screw instrumentation. A total of 90 consecutive patients were randomized into a ‘drain’ or ‘no drain’ group at the time of wound closure, using the sealed envelope technique (1:1). The primary outcomes in the initial study were the change in the level of haemoglobin in the blood postoperatively and total blood loss. A secondary outcome was the opioid consumption immediately after surgery. The aim of this further study was to report the rate of deep SSI and persistent postoperative pain, at two years' follow-up.


Aims

The optimal procedure for the treatment of ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament (OPLL) remains controversial. The aim of this study was to compare the outcome of anterior cervical ossified posterior longitudinal ligament en bloc resection (ACOE) with posterior laminectomy and fusion with bone graft and internal fixation (PTLF) for the surgical management of patients with this condition.

Methods

Between July 2017 and July 2019, 40 patients with cervical OPLL were equally randomized to undergo surgery with an ACOE or a PTLF. The clinical and radiological results were compared between the two groups.


Bone & Joint Research
Vol. 12, Issue 3 | Pages 189 - 198
7 Mar 2023
Ruiz-Fernández C Ait Eldjoudi D González-Rodríguez M Cordero Barreal A Farrag Y García-Caballero L Lago F Mobasheri A Sakai D Pino J Gualillo O

Aims

CRP is an acute-phase protein that is used as a biomarker to follow severity and progression in infectious and inflammatory diseases. Its pathophysiological mechanisms of action are still poorly defined. CRP in its pentameric form exhibits weak anti-inflammatory activity. The monomeric isoform (mCRP) exerts potent proinflammatory properties in chondrocytes, endothelial cells, and leucocytes. No data exist regarding mCRP effects in human intervertebral disc (IVD) cells. This work aimed to verify the pathophysiological relevance of mCRP in the aetiology and/or progression of IVD degeneration.

Methods

We investigated the effects of mCRP and the signalling pathways that are involved in cultured human primary annulus fibrosus (AF) cells and in the human nucleus pulposus (NP) immortalized cell line HNPSV-1. We determined messenger RNA (mRNA) and protein levels of relevant factors involved in inflammatory responses, by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) and western blot. We also studied the presence of mCRP in human AF and NP tissues by immunohistochemistry.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 1 | Pages 64 - 71
1 Jan 2023
Danielsen E Gulati S Salvesen Ø Ingebrigtsen T Nygaard ØP Solberg TK

Aims

The number of patients undergoing surgery for degenerative cervical radiculopathy has increased. In many countries, public hospitals have limited capacity. This has resulted in long waiting times for elective treatment and a need for supplementary private healthcare. It is uncertain whether the management of patients and the outcome of treatment are equivalent in public and private hospitals. The aim of this study was to compare the management and patient-reported outcomes among patients who underwent surgery for degenerative cervical radiculopathy in public and private hospitals in Norway, and to assess whether the effectiveness of the treatment was equivalent.

Methods

This was a comparative study using prospectively collected data from the Norwegian Registry for Spine Surgery. A total of 4,750 consecutive patients who underwent surgery for degenerative cervical radiculopathy and were followed for 12 months were included. Case-mix adjustment between those managed in public and private hospitals was performed using propensity score matching. The primary outcome measure was the change in the Neck Disability Index (NDI) between baseline and 12 months postoperatively. A mean difference in improvement of the NDI score between public and private hospitals of ≤ 15 points was considered equivalent. Secondary outcome measures were a numerical rating scale for neck and arm pain and the EuroQol five-dimension three-level health questionnaire. The duration of surgery, length of hospital stay, and complications were also recorded.


Bone & Joint Research
Vol. 12, Issue 9 | Pages 522 - 535
4 Sep 2023
Zhang G Li L Luo Z Zhang C Wang Y Kang X

Aims

This study aimed, through bioinformatics analysis and in vitro experiment validation, to identify the key extracellular proteins of intervertebral disc degeneration (IDD).

Methods

The gene expression profile of GSE23130 was downloaded from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database. Extracellular protein-differentially expressed genes (EP-DEGs) were screened by protein annotation databases, and we used Gene Ontology (GO) and the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) to analyze the functions and pathways of EP-DEGs. STRING and Cytoscape were used to construct protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks and identify hub EP-DEGs. NetworkAnalyst was used to analyze transcription factors (TFs) and microRNAs (miRNAs) that regulate hub EP-DEGs. A search of the Drug Signatures Database (DSigDB) for hub EP-DEGs revealed multiple drug molecules and drug-target interactions.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 96-B, Issue 6 | Pages 807 - 816
1 Jun 2014
Rajaee SS Kanim LEA Bae HW

Using the United States Nationwide Inpatient Sample, we identified national trends in revision spinal fusion along with a comprehensive comparison of comorbidities, inpatient complications and surgical factors of revision spinal fusion compared to primary spinal fusion. In 2009, there were 410 158 primary spinal fusion discharges and 22 128 revision spinal fusion discharges. Between 2002 and 2009, primary fusion increased at a higher rate compared with revision fusion (56.4% vs 51.0%; p < 0.001). In 2009, the mean length of stay and hospital charges were higher for revision fusion discharges than for primary fusion discharges (4.2 days vs 3.8 days, p < 0.001; USD $91 909 vs. $87 161, p < 0.001). In 2009, recombinant human bone morphogenetic protein (BMP) was used more in revision fusion than in primary fusion (39.6% vs 27.6%, p < 0.001), whereas interbody devices were used less in revision fusion (41.8% vs 56.6%, p < 0.001). . In the multivariable logistic regression model for all spinal fusions, depression (odds ratio (OR) 1.53, p < 0.001), psychotic disorders (OR 1.49, p < 0.001), deficiency anaemias (OR 1.35, p < 0.001) and smoking (OR 1.10, p = 0.006) had a greater chance of occurrence in revision spinal fusion discharges than in primary fusion discharges, adjusting for other variables. In terms of complications, after adjusting for all significant comorbidities, this study found that dural tears (OR 1.41; p < 0.001) and surgical site infections (OR 3.40; p < 0.001) had a greater chance of occurrence in revision spinal fusion discharges than in primary fusion discharges (p < 0.001). A p-value < 0.01 was considered significant in all final analyses. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014;96-B:807–16


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 9 | Pages 1067 - 1072
1 Sep 2022
Helenius L Gerdhem P Ahonen M Syvänen J Jalkanen J Charalampidis A Nietosvaara Y Helenius I

Aims

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether, after correction of an adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS), leaving out the subfascial drain gives results that are no worse than using a drain in terms of total blood loss, drop in haemoglobin level, and opioid consumption.

Methods

Adolescents (aged between 10 and 21 years) with an idiopathic scoliosis (major curve ≥ 45°) were eligible for inclusion in this randomized controlled noninferiority trial (n = 125). A total of 90 adolescents who had undergone segmental pedicle screw instrumentation were randomized into no-drain or drain groups at the time of wound closure using the sealed envelope technique (1:1). The primary outcome was a drop in the haemoglobin level during first three postoperative days. Secondary outcomes were 48-hour postoperative oxycodone consumption and surgical complications.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 85-B, Issue 7 | Pages 1019 - 1025
1 Sep 2003
Siddiqui AA Jackowski A

We conducted a prospective, randomised study of 42 cervical interbody fusions undertaken with either an autologous tricortical graft or a cage. The factors assessed in the two groups were: (1) time taken to achieve fusion; (2) neck disability index; (3) pain score; (4) interbody height ratio; (5) interbody angle and (6) the influence of smoking on fusion. No statistical difference was seen in the time taken to achieve fusion, neck disability index, interbody height ratio, or interbody angles. Smoking did not have any effect on the fusion process. The pain score was significantly lower in the tricortical graft group at six months. We conclude that both methods of fusion give similar results, although tricortical graft fusion is cheaper than cage fusion, and is more effective in reducing the pain score


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 1 | Pages 97 - 102
1 Jan 2022
Hijikata Y Kamitani T Nakahara M Kumamoto S Sakai T Itaya T Yamazaki H Ogawa Y Kusumegi A Inoue T Yoshida T Furue N Fukuhara S Yamamoto Y

Aims

To develop and internally validate a preoperative clinical prediction model for acute adjacent vertebral fracture (AVF) after vertebral augmentation to support preoperative decision-making, named the after vertebral augmentation (AVA) score.

Methods

In this prognostic study, a multicentre, retrospective single-level vertebral augmentation cohort of 377 patients from six Japanese hospitals was used to derive an AVF prediction model. Backward stepwise selection (p < 0.05) was used to select preoperative clinical and imaging predictors for acute AVF after vertebral augmentation for up to one month, from 14 predictors. We assigned a score to each selected variable based on the regression coefficient and developed the AVA scoring system. We evaluated sensitivity and specificity for each cut-off, area under the curve (AUC), and calibration as diagnostic performance. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping to correct the optimism.