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The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 103-B, Issue 5 | Pages 888 - 897
3 May 2021
Hall AJ Clement ND MacLullich AMJ White TO Duckworth AD

Aims. The primary aim was to determine the influence of COVID-19 on 30-day mortality following hip fracture. Secondary aims were to determine predictors of COVID-19 status on presentation and later in the admission; the rate of hospital acquired COVID-19; and the predictive value of negative swabs on admission. Methods. A nationwide multicentre retrospective cohort study was conducted of all patients presenting with a hip fracture to 17 Scottish centres in March and April 2020. Demographics, presentation blood tests, COVID-19 status, Nottingham Hip Fracture Score, management, length of stay, and 30-day mortality were recorded. Results. In all, 78/833 (9.4%) patients were diagnosed with COVID-19. The 30-day survival of patients with COVID-19 was significantly lower than for those without (65.4% vs 91%; p < 0.001). Diagnosis of COVID-19 within seven days of admission (likely community acquired) was independently associated with male sex (odds ratio (OR) 2.34, p = 0.040, confidence interval (CI) 1.04 to 5.25) and symptoms of COVID-19 (OR 15.56, CI 6.61 to 36.60, p < 0.001). Diagnosis of COVID-19 made between seven and 30 days of admission to hospital (likely hospital acquired) was independently associated with male sex (OR 1.73, CI 1.05 to 2.87, p = 0.032), Nottingham Hip Fracture Score ≥ 7 (OR 1.91, CI 1.09 to 3.34, p = 0.024), pulmonary disease (OR 1.68, CI 1.00 to 2.81, p = 0.049), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade ≥ 3 (OR 2.37, CI 1.13 to 4.97, p = 0.022), and length of stay ≥ nine days (OR 1.98, CI 1.18 to 3.31, p = 0.009). A total of 38 (58.5%) COVID-19 cases were probably hospital acquired infections. The false-negative rate of a negative swab on admission was 0% in asymptomatic patients and 2.9% in symptomatic patients. Conclusion. COVID-19 was independently associated with a three times increased 30-day mortality rate. Nosocomial transmission may have accounted for approximately half of all cases during the first wave of the pandemic. Identification of risk factors for having COVID-19 on admission or acquiring COVID-19 in hospital may guide pathways for isolating or shielding patients respectively. Length of stay was the only modifiable risk factor, which emphasizes the importance of high-quality and timely care in this patient group. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(5):888–897


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 93-B, Issue 7 | Pages 867 - 875
1 Jul 2011
Rolfson O Kärrholm J Dahlberg LE Garellick G

We present the development and results of a nationwide, prospective, observational follow-up programme including patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) for the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register. The programme started in 2002 and has gradually expanded to include all units performing total hip replacement in Sweden. The self-administered PROMs protocol comprises the EQ-5D instrument, the Charnley class categorisation and visual analogue scales for pain and satisfaction. These current analyses include 34 960 total hip replacements with complete pre- and one-year post-operative questionnaires. Patients eligible for total hip replacement generally report low health-related quality of life and suffer from pain. One year post-operatively the mean EQ-5D index increased to above the level of an age- and gender-matched population, with a considerable reduction of pain (p < 0.001). Females, younger patients and those with Charnley category C reported a lower EQ-5D index pre-operatively than males, older patients and Charnley category A or B, respectively (all p < 0.001). In a multivariable regression analysis Charnley category C, male gender and higher age were associated with less improvement in health-related quality of life (p < 0.001). Nationwide implementation of a PROMs programme requires a structured organisation and effective data capture. Patients’ response rates to the Registry are good. The continuous collection of PROMs permits local and national improvement work and allows for further health-economic evaluation


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 101-B, Issue 6_Supple_B | Pages 77 - 83
1 Jun 2019
Roberts HJ Tsay EL Grace TR Vail TP Ward DT

Aims. Increasingly, patients with bilateral hip arthritis wish to undergo staged total hip arthroplasty (THA). With the rise in demand for arthroplasty, perioperative risk assessment and counselling is crucial for shared decision making. However, it is unknown if complications that occur after a unilateral hip arthroplasty predict complications following surgery of the contralateral hip. Patients and Methods. We used nationwide linked discharge data from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project between 2005 and 2014 to analyze the incidence and recurrence of complications following the first- and second-stage operations in staged bilateral total hip arthroplasty (BTHAs). Complications included perioperative medical adverse events within 30 to 60 days, and infection and mechanical complications within one year. Conditional probabilities and odds ratios (ORs) were calculated to determine whether experiencing a complication after the first stage of surgery increased the risk of developing the same complication after the second stage. Results. A total of 13 829 patients (5790 men and 8039 women) who underwent staged BTHAs were analyzed. The mean age at first operation was 62.9 years (14 to 95). For eight of the 12 outcomes evaluated, patients who experienced the outcome following the first arthroplasty had a significantly increased probability and odds of developing that same complication following the second arthroplasty, compared with those who did not experience the complication after the first surgery. This was true for digestive complications (OR 25.67, 95% confidence interval (CI) 13.86 to 46.08; p < 0.001), urinary complications (OR 6.48, 95% CI 1.7 to 20.73; p = 0.01), haematoma (OR 12.17, 95% CI 4.55 to 31.14; p < 0.001), deep vein thrombosis (OR 4.82, 95% CI 2.34 to 9.65; p < 0.001), pulmonary embolism (OR 12.03, 95% CI 2.02 to 46.77; p = 0.01), deep hip infection (OR 534.21, 95% CI 314.96 to 909.25; p < 0.001), superficial hip infection (OR 1574.99, 95% CI 269.83 to 9291.81; p < 0.001), and mechanical malfunction (OR 117.49, 95% CI 91.55 to 150.34; p < 0.001). Conclusion. The occurrence of certain complications after unilateral THA is associated with an increased risk of the same complication occurring after staged arthroplasty of the contralateral hip. Patients who experience these complications after unilateral hip arthroplasty should be appropriately counselled regarding their risk profile prior to undergoing staged contralateral hip arthroplasty. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B(6 Supple B):77–83


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 102-B, Issue 7 Supple B | Pages 122 - 128
1 Jul 2020
Sodhi N Acuna A Etcheson J Mohamed N Davila I Ehiorobo JO Jones LC Delanois RE Mont MA

Aims. Earlier studies dealing with trends in the management of osteonecrosis of the femoral head (ONFH) identified an increasing rate of total hip arthroplasties (THAs) and a decreasing rate of joint-preserving procedures between 1992 and 2008. In an effort to assess new trends in the management of this condition, this study evaluated the annual trends of joint-preserving versus arthroplasties for patients aged < or > 50 years old, and the incidence of specific operative management techniques. Methods. A total of 219,371 patients with ONFH were identified from a nationwide database between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2015. The mean age was 54 years (18 to 90) and 105,298 (48%) were female. The diagnosis was made using International Classification of Disease, Ninth revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) and Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM) procedure codes. The percentage of patients managed using each procedure during each year was calculated and compared between years. The trends in the use of the types of procedure were also evaluated. Results. The rate of joint-preserving procedures was significantly higher in patients aged < 50 years compared with those aged > 50 years (4.93% vs 1.52%; p < 0.001). For the overall cohort, rates of arthroplasty were far greater than those for joint-preserving procedures. THA was the most commonly performed procedure (291,114; 94.03%), while osteotomy (3,598; 1.16%), partial arthroplasty (9,171; 2.96%), core decompression (1,200; 0.39%), and bone graft (3,026; 0.98%) were performed markedly less frequently. The annual percentage of patients managed using a THA (93.56% to 89.52%; p < 0.001), resurfacing (1.22% to 0.19%; p < 0.001), and osteotomy (1.31% to 1.05%; p < 0.001) also decreased during the study period. Conclusion. We found that patients with ONFH have been most commonly managed with non-joint-preserving procedures. Our findings provide valuable insight into the current management of this condition and should increase efforts being made to save the hip joint. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(7 Supple B):122–128


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 99-B, Issue 1 | Pages 37 - 43
1 Jan 2017
Garland A Gordon M Garellick G Kärrholm J Sköldenberg O Hailer NP

Aims. It has been suggested that cemented fixation of total hip arthroplasty (THA) is associated with an increased peri-operative mortality compared with cementless THA. Our aim was to investigate this through a nationwide matched cohort study adjusting for age, comorbidity, and socioeconomic background. Patients and Methods. A total of 178 784 patients with osteoarthritis who underwent either cemented or cementless THA from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register were matched with 862 294 controls from the general population. Information about the causes of death, comorbidities, and socioeconomic background was obtained. Mortality within the first 90 days after the operation was the primary outcome measure. Results. Patients who underwent cemented THA had an increased risk of death during the first 14 days compared with the controls (hazard ratio (HR) 1.3, confidence interval (CI) 1.11 to 1.44), corresponding to an absolute increase in risk of five deaths per 10 000 observations. No such early increase of risk was seen in those who underwent cementless THA. Between days 15 and 29 the risk of mortality was decreased for those with cemented THA (HR 0.7, CI 0.62 to 0.87). Between days 30 and 90 all patients undergoing THA, irrespective of the mode of fixation, had a lower risk of death than controls. Patients selected for cementless fixation were younger, healthier and had a higher level of education and income than those selected for cemented THA. A supplementary analysis of 16 556 hybrid THAs indicated that cementation of the femoral component was associated with a slight increase in mortality up to 15 days, whereas no such increase in mortality was seen in those with a cemented acetabular component combined with a cementless femoral component. Conclusion. This nationwide matched cohort study indicates that patients receiving cemented THA have a minimally increased relative risk of early mortality that is reversed from day 15 and thereafter. The absolute increase in risk is very small. Our findings lend support to the idea that cementation of the femoral component is more dangerous than cementation of the acetabular component. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:37–43


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 95-B, Issue 9 | Pages 1184 - 1191
1 Sep 2013
Gordon M Stark A Sköldenberg OG Kärrholm J Garellick G

While an increasing amount of arthroplasty articles report comorbidity measures, none have been validated for outcomes. In this study, we compared commonly used International Classification of Diseases-based comorbidity measures with re-operation rates after total hip replacement (THR). Scores used included the Charlson, the Royal College of Surgeons Charlson, and the Elixhauser comorbidity score. We identified a nationwide cohort of 134 423 THRs from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register. Re-operations were registered post-operatively for up to 12 years. The hazard ratio was estimated by Cox’s proportional hazards regression, and we used C-statistics to assess each measure’s ability to predict re-operation. Confounding variables were age, gender, type of implant fixation, hospital category, hospital implant volume and year of surgery. In the first two years only the Elixhauser score showed any significant relationship with increased risk of re-operation, with increased scores for both one to two and three or more comorbidities. However, the predictive C-statistic in this period for the Elixhauser score was poor (0.52). None of the measures proved to be of any value between two and 12 years. They might be of value in large cohort or registry studies, but not for the individual patient. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:1184–91


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 8 | Pages 864 - 871
1 Aug 2023
Tyas B Marsh M de Steiger R Lorimer M Petheram TG Inman DS Reed MR Jameson SS

Aims

Several different designs of hemiarthroplasty are used to treat intracapsular fractures of the proximal femur, with large variations in costs. No clinical benefit of modular over monoblock designs has been reported in the literature. Long-term data are lacking. The aim of this study was to report the ten-year implant survival of commonly used designs of hemiarthroplasty.

Methods

Patients recorded by the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry (AOANJRR) between 1 September 1999 and 31 December 2020 who underwent hemiarthroplasty for the treatment of a hip fracture with the following implants were included: a cemented monoblock Exeter Trauma Stem (ETS), cemented Exeter V40 with a bipolar head, a monoblock Thompsons prosthesis (Cobalt/Chromium or Titanium), and an Exeter V40 with a Unitrax head. Overall and age-defined cumulative revision rates were compared over the ten years following surgery.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 9 | Pages 652 - 658
1 Sep 2023
Albrektsson M Möller M Wolf O Wennergren D Sundfeldt M

Aims

To describe the epidemiology of acetabular fractures including patient characteristics, injury mechanisms, fracture patterns, treatment, and mortality.

Methods

We retrieved information from the Swedish Fracture Register (SFR) on all patients with acetabular fractures, of the native hip joint in the adult skeleton, sustained between 2014 and 2020. Study variables included patient age, sex, injury date, injury mechanism, fracture classification, treatment, and mortality.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 2 | Pages 87 - 93
2 Feb 2024
Wolf O Ghukasyan Lakic T Ljungdahl J Sundkvist J Möller M Rogmark C Mukka S Hailer NP

Aims

Our primary aim was to assess reoperation-free survival at one year after the index injury in patients aged ≥ 75 years treated with internal fixation (IF) or arthroplasty for undisplaced femoral neck fractures (uFNFs). Secondary outcomes were reoperations and mortality analyzed separately.

Methods

We retrieved data on all patients aged ≥ 75 years with an uFNF registered in the Swedish Fracture Register from 2011 to 2018. The database was linked to the Swedish Arthroplasty Register and the National Patient Register to obtain information on comorbidity, mortality, and reoperations. Our primary outcome, reoperation, or death at one year was analyzed using restricted mean survival time, which gives the mean time to either event for each group separately.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 10 | Pages 843 - 850
8 Oct 2024
Greve K Ek S Bartha E Modig K Hedström M

Aims

The primary aim of this study was to compare surgical methods (sliding hip screw (SHS) vs intramedullary nailing (IMN)) for trochanteric hip fracture in relation to death within 120 days after surgery and return to independent living. The secondary aim was to assess whether the associations between surgical method and death or ability to return to independent living varied depending on fracture subtype or other patient characteristics.

Methods

A total of 27,530 individuals from the Swedish Hip Fracture Register RIKSHÖFT (SHR) aged ≥ 70 years, admitted to hospital between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2019 with trochanteric hip fracture, were included. Within this cohort, 12,041 individuals lived independently at baseline, had follow-up information in the SHR, and were thus investigated for return to independent living. Death within 120 days after surgery was analyzed using Cox regression with SHS as reference and adjusted for age and fracture type. Return to independent living was analyzed using logistic regression adjusted for age and fracture type. Analyses were repeated after stratification by fracture type, age, and sex.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 10 | Pages 1050 - 1058
1 Oct 2024
Holleyman RJ Jameson SS Meek RMD Khanduja V Reed MR Judge A Board TN

Aims

This study evaluates the association between consultant and hospital volume and the risk of re-revision and 90-day mortality following first-time revision of primary hip arthroplasty for aseptic loosening.

Methods

We conducted a cohort study of first-time, single-stage revision hip arthroplasties (RHAs) performed for aseptic loosening and recorded in the National Joint Registry (NJR) data for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, and the Isle of Man between 2003 and 2019. Patient identifiers were used to link records to national mortality data, and to NJR data to identify subsequent re-revision procedures. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models with restricted cubic splines were used to define associations between volume and outcome.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 3 | Pages 341 - 351
1 Mar 2022
Fowler TJ Aquilina AL Reed MR Blom AW Sayers A Whitehouse MR

Aims

Total hip arthroplasties (THAs) are performed by surgeons at various stages in training with varying levels of supervision, but we do not know if this is safe practice with comparable outcomes to consultant-performed THA. Our aim was to examine the association between surgeon grade, the senior supervision of trainees, and the risk of revision following THA.

Methods

We performed an observational study using National Joint Registry (NJR) data. We included adult patients who underwent primary THA for osteoarthritis, recorded in the NJR between 2003 and 2016. Exposures were operating surgeon grade (consultant or trainee) and whether or not trainees were directly supervised by a scrubbed consultant. Outcomes were all-cause revision and the indication for revision up to ten years. We used methods of survival analysis, adjusted for patient, operation, and healthcare setting factors.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 103-B, Issue 9 | Pages 1488 - 1496
1 Sep 2021
Emara AK Zhou G Klika AK Koroukian SM Schiltz NK Higuera-Rueda CA Molloy RM Piuzzi NS

Aims

The current study aimed to compare robotic arm-assisted (RA-THA), computer-assisted (CA-THA), and manual (M-THA) total hip arthroplasty regarding in-hospital metrics including length of stay (LOS), discharge disposition, in-hospital complications, and cost of RA-THA versus M-THA and CA-THA versus M-THA, as well as trends in use and uptake over a ten-year period, and future projections of uptake and use of RA-THA and CA-THA.

Methods

The National Inpatient Sample was queried for primary THAs (2008 to 2017) which were categorized into RA-THA, CA-THA, and M-THA. Past and projected use, demographic characteristics distribution, income, type of insurance, location, and healthcare setting were compared among the three cohorts. In-hospital complications, LOS, discharge disposition, and in-hospital costs were compared between propensity score-matched cohorts of M-THA versus RA-THA and M-THA versus CA-THA to adjust for baseline characteristics and comorbidities.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 3 | Pages 359 - 367
1 Mar 2022
Deere K Matharu GS Ben-Shlomo Y Wilkinson JM Blom AW Sayers A Whitehouse MR

Aims

A recent report from France suggested an association between the use of cobalt-chrome (CoCr) femoral heads in total hip arthroplasties (THAs) and an increased risk of dilated cardiomyopathy and heart failure. CoCr is a commonly used material in orthopaedic implants. If the reported association is causal, the consequences would be significant given the millions of joint arthroplasties and other orthopaedic procedures in which CoCr is used annually. We examined whether CoCr-containing THAs were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality, heart outcomes, cancer, and neurodegenerative disorders in a large national database.

Methods

Data from the National Joint Registry was linked to NHS English hospital inpatient episodes for 374,359 primary THAs with up to 14.5 years' follow-up. We excluded any patients with bilateral THAs, knee arthroplasties, indications other than osteoarthritis, aged under 55 years, and diagnosis of one or more outcome of interest before THA. Implants were grouped as either containing CoCr or not containing CoCr. The association between implant construct and the risk of all-cause mortality and incident heart failure, cancer, and neurodegenerative disorders was examined.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 2 | Pages 221 - 226
1 Feb 2022
Edwards NM Varnum C Nelissen RGHH Overgaard S Pedersen AB

Aims

The aim of this study was to examine whether socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with a higher risk of infections following total hip arthroplasty (THA) at 30 and 90 days.

Methods

We obtained individual-based information on SES markers (cohabitation, education, income, and savings) on 103,901 THA patients from Danish health registries between 1 January 1995 and 31 December 2017. The primary outcome measure was any hospital-treated infection (i.e. all infections). The secondary outcomes were further specified to specific hospital-treated infections (pneumonia, urinary tract infection, and periprosthetic joint infection). The primary timepoint was within 90 days. In addition, the outcomes were further evaluated within 30 days. We calculated the cumulative incidence, and used the pseudo-observation method and generalized linear regression to estimate adjusted risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each marker.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 103-B, Issue 7 Supple B | Pages 111 - 115
1 Jul 2021
Vakharia RM Mannino A Salem HS Roche MW Wong CHJ Mont MA

Aims

Although there is increasing legalization of the use of cannabis in the USA, few well-powered studies have evaluated the association between cannabis use disorder and outcomes following primary total hip arthroplasty (THA). Thus, the aim of this study was to determine whether patients who use cannabis and undergo primary THA have higher rates of in-hospital length of stay (LOS), medical complications, implant-related complications, and costs.

Methods

Using an administrative database, patients with cannabis use disorder undergoing primary THA were matched to a control group in a 1:5 ratio by age, sex, and various medical comorbidities. This yielded 23,030 patients (3,842 in the study group matched with 19,188 in the control group). The variables which were studied included LOS, 90-day medical complications, two-year implant-related complications, and 90-day costs of care. Mann-Whitney U tests were used to compare LOS and costs. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) of developing complications.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 12 | Pages 1017 - 1026
1 Dec 2021
Sadiq S Lipski C Hanif U Arshad F Chaudary M Chaudhry F

Aims

This study assessed the impact of COVID-19 on hip and distal femur fracture patient outcomes across three successive UK lockdown periods over one year.

Methods

A single-centre retrospective cohort study was performed at an acute NHS Trust. Hip and distal femur fracture patients admitted within the first month from each of the three starting dates of each national lockdown were included and compared to a control group in March 2019. Data were collected as per the best practice tariff outcomes including additional outcomes as required. Data collection included COVID-19 status, time to theatre, 30-day mortality, presence of acute kidney injury (AKI) and pneumonia, and do not attempt cardiopulmonary resuscitation (DNACPR) status. Data were analyzed using an independent-samples t-test or chi-squared test with Fisher’s exact test where applicable. A p-value of < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 88-B, Issue 1 | Pages 26 - 30
1 Jan 2006
Lindahl H Malchau H Odén A Garellick G

Periprosthetic fracture of the femur is an uncommon complication after total hip replacement, but appears to be increasing. We undertook a nationwide observational study to determine the risk factors for failure after treatment of these fractures, examining patient- and implant-related factors, the classification of the fractures and the outcome. Between 1979 and 2000, 1049 periprosthetic fractures of the femur were reported to the Swedish National Hip Arthroplasty Register. Of these, 245 had a further operation after failure of their initial management. Data were collected from the Register and hospital records. The material was analysed by the use of Poisson regression models. It was found that the risk of failure of treatment was reduced for Vancouver type B2 injuries (p = 0.0053) if revision of the implant was undertaken (p = 0.0033) or revision and open reduction and internal fixation (p = 0.0039) were performed. Fractures classified as Vancouver type B1 had a significantly higher risk of failure (p = 0.0001). The strongest negative factor was the use of a single plate for fixation (p = 0.001). The most common reasons for failure in this group were loosening of the femoral prosthesis, nonunion and re-fracture. It is probable that many fractures classified as Vancouver type B1 (n = 304), were in reality type B2 fractures with a loose stem which were not recognised. Plate fixation was inadequate in these cases. The difficulty in separating type B1 from type B2 fractures suggests that the prosthesis should be considered as loose until proven otherwise


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 7 | Pages 454 - 465
8 Jul 2021
Kristoffersen MH Dybvik EH Steihaug OM Kristensen TB Engesæter LB Ranhoff AH Gjertsen J

Aims

Hip fracture patients have high morbidity and mortality. Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) assess the quality of care of patients with hip fracture, including those with chronic cognitive impairment (CCI). Our aim was to compare PROMs from hip fracture patients with and without CCI, using the Norwegian Hip Fracture Register (NHFR).

Methods

PROM questionnaires at four months (n = 34,675) and 12 months (n = 24,510) after a hip fracture reported from 2005 to 2018 were analyzed. Pre-injury score was reported in the four-month questionnaire. The questionnaires included the EuroQol five-dimension three-level (EQ-5D-3L) questionnaire, and information about who completed the questionnaire.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 103-B, Issue 3 | Pages 469 - 478
1 Mar 2021
Garland A Bülow E Lenguerrand E Blom A Wilkinson M Sayers A Rolfson O Hailer NP

Aims

To develop and externally validate a parsimonious statistical prediction model of 90-day mortality after elective total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to provide a web calculator for clinical usage.

Methods

We included 53,099 patients with cemented THA due to osteoarthritis from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Registry for model derivation and internal validation, as well as 125,428 patients from England and Wales recorded in the National Joint Register for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man, and the States of Guernsey (NJR) for external model validation. A model was developed using a bootstrap ranking procedure with a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression model combined with piecewise linear regression. Discriminative ability was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration belt plots were used to assess model calibration.