Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a common complication after elbow trauma and can cause severe upper limb disability. Although multiple prognostic factors have been reported to be associated with the development of post-traumatic HO, no model has yet been able to combine these predictors more succinctly to convey prognostic information and medical measures to patients. Therefore, this study aimed to identify prognostic factors leading to the formation of HO after surgery for elbow trauma, and to establish and validate a nomogram to predict the probability of HO formation in such particular injuries. This multicentre case-control study comprised 200 patients with post-traumatic elbow HO and 229 patients who had elbow trauma but without HO formation between July 2019 and December 2020. Features possibly associated with HO formation were obtained. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize feature selection. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build the new nomogram: the Shanghai post-Traumatic Elbow Heterotopic Ossification Prediction model (STEHOP). STEHOP was validated by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation.Aims
Methods
We present the results of 13 patients who suffered severe injuries to the lower leg. Five sustained a traumatic amputation and eight a Gustilo-Anderson type IIIC open fracture. All were treated with debridement, acute shortening and stabilisation of the fracture and vascular reconstruction. Further treatment involved restoration of tibial length by callus distraction through the distal or proximal metaphysis, which was commenced soon after the soft tissues had healed (n = 8) or delayed until union of the fracture (n = 5). All patients were male with a mean age of 28.4 years (17 to 44), and had sustained injury to the leg only. Chen grade II functional status was achieved in all patients. Although the number of patients treated with each strategy was limited, there was no obvious disadvantage in the early lengthening programme, which was completed more quickly.
