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The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 8 | Pages 842 - 848
1 Aug 2024
Kriechling P Whitefield R Makaram NS Brown IDM Mackenzie SP Robinson CM

Aims

Vascular compromise due to arterial injury is a rare but serious complication of a proximal humeral fracture. The aims of this study were to report its incidence in a large urban population, and to identify clinical and radiological factors which are associated with this complication. We also evaluated the results of the use of our protocol for the management of these injuries.

Methods

A total of 3,497 adult patients with a proximal humeral fracture were managed between January 2015 and December 2022 in a single tertiary trauma centre. Their mean age was 66.7 years (18 to 103) and 2,510 (72%) were female. We compared the demographic data, clinical features, and configuration of those whose fracture was complicated by vascular compromise with those of the remaining patients. The incidence of vascular compromise was calculated from national population data, and predictive factors for its occurrence were investigated using univariate analysis.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 3 | Pages 268 - 276
1 Mar 2024
Park JH Lee JH Kim DY Kim HG Kim JS Lee SM Kim SC Yoo JC

Aims

This study aimed to assess the impact of using the metal-augmented glenoid baseplate (AGB) on improving clinical and radiological outcomes, as well as reducing complications, in patients with superior glenoid wear undergoing reverse shoulder arthroplasty (RSA).

Methods

From January 2016 to June 2021, out of 235 patients who underwent primary RSA, 24 received a superior-AGB after off-axis reaming (Group A). Subsequently, we conducted propensity score matching in a 1:3 ratio, considering sex, age, follow-up duration, and glenoid wear (superior-inclination and retroversion), and selected 72 well-balanced matched patients who received a standard glenoid baseplate (STB) after eccentric reaming (Group B). Superior-inclination, retroversion, and lateral humeral offset (LHO) were measured to assess preoperative glenoid wear and postoperative correction, as well as to identify any complications. Clinical outcomes were measured at each outpatient visit before and after surgery.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 2 | Pages 174 - 181
1 Feb 2024
Mandalia KP Brodeur PG Li LT Ives K Cruz Jr. AI Shah SS

Aims

The aim of this study was to characterize the influence of social deprivation on the rate of complications, readmissions, and revisions following primary total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA), using the Social Deprivation Index (SDI). The SDI is a composite measurement, in percentages, of seven demographic characteristics: living in poverty, with < 12 years of education, single-parent households, living in rented or overcrowded housing, households without a car, and unemployed adults aged < 65 years.

Methods

Patients aged ≥ 40 years, who underwent primary TSA between 2011 and 2017, were identified using International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 Clinical Modification and ICD-10 procedure codes for TSA in the New York Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System database. Readmission, reoperation, and other complications were analyzed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression controlling for SDI, age, ethnicity, insurance status, and Charlson Comorbidity Index.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 5 | Pages 534 - 542
1 May 2023
Makaram NS Khan LAK Jenkins PJ Robinson CM

Aims

The outcomes following nonoperative management of minimally displaced greater tuberosity (GT) fractures, and the factors which influence patient experience, remain poorly defined. We assessed the early patient-derived outcomes following these injuries and examined the effect of a range of demographic- and injury-related variables on these outcomes.

Methods

In total, 101 patients (53 female, 48 male) with a mean age of 50.9 years (19 to 76) with minimally displaced GT fractures were recruited to a prospective observational cohort study. During the first year after injury, patients underwent experiential assessment using the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) score and assessment of associated injuries using MRI performed within two weeks of injury. The primary outcome was the one-year DASH score. Multivariate analysis was used to assess the effect of patient demographic factors, complications, and associated injuries, on outcome.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 4 | Pages 389 - 399
15 Mar 2023
Makaram NS Nicholson JA Yapp LZ Gillespie M Shah CP Robinson CM

Aims

The open Latarjet procedure is a widely used treatment for recurrent anterior instability of the shoulder. Although satisfactory outcomes are reported, factors which influence a patient’s experience are poorly quantified. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of a range of demographic factors and measures of the severity of instability on patient-reported outcome measures in patients who underwent an open Latarjet procedure at a minimum follow-up of two years.

Methods

A total of 350 patients with anterior instability of the shoulder who underwent an open Latarjet procedure between 2005 and 2018 were reviewed prospectively, with the collection of demographic and psychosocial data, preoperative CT, and complications during follow-up of two years. The primary outcome measure was the Western Ontario Shoulder Instability Index (WOSI), assessed preoperatively, at two years postoperatively, and at mid-term follow-up at a mean of 50.6 months (SD 24.8) postoperatively. The secondary outcome measure was the abbreviated version of the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (QuickDASH) score. The influence of the demographic details of the patients, measurements of the severity of instability, and the complications of surgery were assessed in a multivariate analysis.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 2 | Pages 110 - 119
21 Feb 2023
Macken AA Prkić A van Oost I Spekenbrink-Spooren A The B Eygendaal D

Aims

The aim of this study is to report the implant survival and factors associated with revision of total elbow arthroplasty (TEA) using data from the Dutch national registry.

Methods

All TEAs recorded in the Dutch national registry between 2014 and 2020 were included. The Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival analysis, and a logistic regression model was used to assess the factors associated with revision.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 1 | Pages 19 - 26
13 Jan 2023
Nishida K Nasu Y Hashizume K Okita S Nakahara R Saito T Ozaki T Inoue H

Aims

There are concerns regarding complications and longevity of total elbow arthroplasty (TEA) in young patients, and the few previous publications are mainly limited to reports on linked elbow devices. We investigated the clinical outcome of unlinked TEA for patients aged less than 50 years with rheumatoid arthritis (RA).

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed the records of 26 elbows of 21 patients with RA who were aged less than 50 years who underwent primary TEA with an unlinked elbow prosthesis. The mean patient age was 46 years (35 to 49), and the mean follow-up period was 13.6 years (6 to 27). Outcome measures included pain, range of motion, Mayo Elbow Performance Score (MEPS), radiological evaluation for radiolucent line and loosening, complications, and revision surgery with or without implant removal.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 3, Issue 11 | Pages 850 - 858
2 Nov 2022
Khoriati A Fozo ZA Al-Hilfi L Tennent D

Aims. The management of mid-shaft clavicle fractures (MSCFs) has evolved over the last three decades. Controversy exists over which specific fracture patterns to treat and when. This review aims to synthesize the literature in order to formulate an appropriate management algorithm for these injuries in both adolescents and adults. Methods. This is a systematic review of clinical studies comparing the outcomes of operative and nonoperative treatments for MSCFs in the past 15 years. The literature was searched using, PubMed, Google scholar, OVID Medline, and Embase. All databases were searched with identical search terms: mid-shaft clavicle fractures (± fixation) (± nonoperative). Results. Using the search criteria identified, 247 studies were deemed eligible. Following initial screening, 220 studies were excluded on the basis that they were duplicates and/or irrelevant to the research question being posed. A total of 27 full-text articles remained and were included in the final review. The majority of the meta-analyses draw the same conclusions, which are that operatively treated fractures have lower nonunion and malunion rates but that, in those fractures which unite (either operative or nonoperative), the functional outcomes are the same at six months. Conclusion. With regard to the adolescent population, the existing body of evidence is insufficient to support the use of routine operative management. Regarding adult fractures, the key to identifying patients who benefit from operative management lies in the identification of risk factors for nonunion. We present an algorithm that can be used to guide both the patient and the surgeon in a joint decision-making process, in order to optimize patient satisfaction and outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(11):850–858


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 5 | Pages 620 - 626
1 May 2022
Stadecker M Gu A Ramamurti P Fassihi SC Wei C Agarwal AR Bovonratwet P Srikumaran U

Aims. Corticosteroid injections are often used to manage glenohumeral arthritis in patients who may be candidates for future total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA) or reverse shoulder arthroplasty (rTSA). In the conservative management of these patients, corticosteroid injections are often provided for symptomatic relief. The purpose of this study was to determine if the timing of corticosteroid injections prior to TSA or rTSA is associated with changes in rates of revision and periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) following these procedures. Methods. Data were collected from a national insurance database from January 2006 to December 2017. Patients who underwent shoulder corticosteroid injection within one year prior to ipsilateral TSA or rTSA were identified and stratified into the following cohorts: < three months, three to six months, six to nine months, and nine to 12 months from time of corticosteroid injection to TSA or rTSA. A control cohort with no corticosteroid injection within one year prior to TSA or rTSA was used for comparison. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to determine the association between specific time intervals and outcomes. Results. In total, 4,252 patients were included in this study. Among those, 1,632 patients (38.4%) received corticosteroid injection(s) within one year prior to TSA or rTSA and 2,620 patients (61.6%) did not. On multivariate analysis, patients who received corticosteroid injection < three months prior to TSA or rTSA were at significantly increased risk for revision (odds ratio (OR) 2.61 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.77 to 3.28); p < 0.001) when compared with the control cohort. However, there was no significant increase in revision risk for all other timing interval cohorts. Notably, Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥ 3 was a significant independent risk factor for all-cause revision (OR 4.00 (95% CI 1.40 to 8.92); p = 0.036). Conclusion. There is a time-dependent relationship between the preoperative timing of corticosteroid injection and the incidence of all-cause revision surgery following TSA or rTSA. This analysis suggests that an interval of at least three months should be maintained between corticosteroid injection and TSA or rTSA to minimize risks of subsequent revision surgery. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(5):620–626


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 4 | Pages 486 - 494
4 Apr 2022
Liu W Sun Z Xiong H Liu J Lu J Cai B Wang W Fan C

Aims

The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a prognostic nomogram to predict the probability of gaining a functional range of motion (ROM ≥ 120°) after open arthrolysis of the elbow in patients with post-traumatic stiffness of the elbow.

Methods

We developed the Shanghai Prediction Model for Elbow Stiffness Surgical Outcome (SPESSO) based on a dataset of 551 patients who underwent open arthrolysis of the elbow in four institutions. Demographic and clinical characteristics were collected from medical records. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize the selection of relevant features. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to build the SPESSO. Its prediction performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and a calibration graph. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 103-B, Issue 5 | Pages 951 - 957
1 May 2021
Ng N Nicholson JA Chen P Yapp LZ Gaston MS Robinson CM

Aims

The aim of this study was to define the complications and long-term outcome following adolescent mid-shaft clavicular fracture.

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed a consecutive series of 677 adolescent fractures in 671 patients presenting to our region (age 13 to 17 years) over a ten-year period (2009 to 2019). Long-term patient-reported outcomes (abbreviated version of the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (QuickDASH) score and EuroQol five-dimension three-level (EQ-5D-3L) quality of life score) were undertaken at a mean of 6.4 years (1.2 to 11.3) following injury in severely displaced mid-shaft fractures (Edinburgh 2B) and angulated mid-shaft fractures (Edinburgh 2A2) at a minimum of one year post-injury. The median patient age was 14.8 years (interquartile range (IQR) 14.0 to 15.7) and 89% were male (n = 594/671).


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 103-B, Issue 5 | Pages 964 - 970
1 May 2021
Ling DI Schneider B Ode G Lai EY Gulotta LV

Aims

To investigate the impact of the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity indices on patient-reported outcomes measures (PROMs) following shoulder arthroplasty.

Methods

Patients undergoing total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA), reverse shoulder arthroplasty (RSA), or hemiarthroplasty (HA) from 2016 to 2018 were identified, along with the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidities listed as their secondary diagnoses in the electronic medical records. Patients were matched to our institution’s registry to obtain their PROMs, including shoulder-specific (American Shoulder and Elbow Society (ASES) and Shoulder Activity Scale (SAS)) and general health scales (12-Item Short Form Survey (SF-12) and Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System-Pain Interference). Linear regression models adjusting for age and sex were used to evaluate the association between increasing number of comorbidities and PROM scores. A total of 1,817 shoulder arthroplasties were performed: 1,017 (56%) TSA, 726 (40%) RSA, and 74 (4%) HA. The mean age was 67 years (SD 10), and 936 (52%) of the patients were female.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 103-B, Issue 4 | Pages 718 - 724
1 Apr 2021
Cavalier M Johnston TR Tran L Gauci M Boileau P

Aims. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for recurrent instability of the shoulder and assess the ability to return to sport in patients with engaging Hill-Sachs lesions treated with arthroscopic Bankart repair and Hill-Sachs remplissage (ABR-HSR). Methods. This retrospective study included 133 consecutive patients with a mean age of 30 years (14 to 69) who underwent ABR-HSR; 103 (77%) practiced sports before the instability of the shoulder. All had large/deep, engaging Hill-Sachs lesions (Calandra III). Patients were divided into two groups: A (n = 102) with minimal or no (< 10%) glenoid bone loss, and B (n = 31) with subcritical (10% to 20%) glenoid loss. A total of 19 patients (14%) had undergone a previous stabilization, which failed. The primary endpoint was recurrent instability, with a secondary outcome of the ability to return to sport. Results. At a mean follow-up of four years (1.0 to 8.25), ten patients (7.5%) had recurrent instability. Patients in group B had a significantly higher recurrence rate than those in group A (p = 0.001). Using a multivariate logistic regression, the presence of glenoid erosion of > 10% (odds ratio (OR) = 35.13 (95% confidence interval (CI) 8 to 149); p = 0.001) and age < 23 years (OR = 0.89 (0.79 to 0.99); p = 0.038) were associated with a higher risk of recurrent instability. A total of 80 patients (78%) could return to sport, but only 11 athletes (65%) who practiced high-risk (collision or contact-overhead) sports. All seven shoulders which were revised using a Latarjet procedure were stable at a mean final follow-up of 36 months (11 to 57) and returned to sports at the same level. Conclusion. Patients with subcritical glenoid bone loss (> 10%) and younger age (≤ 23 years) are at risk of failure and reoperation after ABR-HSR. Furthermore, following this procedure, one-third of athletes practicing high-risk sports are unable to return at their pre-instability level, despite having a stable shoulder. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(4):718–724


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 103-B, Issue 2 | Pages 366 - 372
1 Feb 2021
Sun Z Li J Luo G Wang F Hu Y Fan C

Aims. This study aimed to determine the minimal detectable change (MDC), minimal clinically important difference (MCID), and substantial clinical benefit (SCB) under distribution- and anchor-based methods for the Mayo Elbow Performance Index (MEPI) and range of movement (ROM) after open elbow arthrolysis (OEA). We also assessed the proportion of patients who achieved MCID and SCB; and identified the factors associated with achieving MCID. Methods. A cohort of 265 patients treated by OEA were included. The MEPI and ROM were evaluated at baseline and at two-year follow-up. Distribution-based MDC was calculated with confidence intervals (CIs) reflecting 80% (MDC 80), 90% (MDC 90), and 95% (MDC 95) certainty, and MCID with changes from baseline to follow-up. Anchor-based MCID (anchored to somewhat satisfied) and SCB (very satisfied) were calculated using a five-level Likert satisfaction scale. Multivariate logistic regression of factors affecting MCID achievement was performed. Results. The MDC increased substantially based on selected CIs (MDC 80, MDC 90, and MDC 95), ranging from 5.0 to 7.6 points for the MEPI, and from 8.2° to 12.5° for ROM. The MCID of the MEPI were 8.3 points under distribution-based and 12.2 points under anchor-based methods; distribution- and anchor-based MCID of ROM were 14.1° and 25.0°. The SCB of the MEPI and ROM were 17.3 points and 43.4°, respectively. The proportion of the patients who attained anchor-based MCID for the MEPI and ROM were 74.0% and 94.7%, respectively; furthermore, 64.2% and 86.8% attained SCB. Non-dominant arm (p = 0.022), higher preoperative MEPI rating (p < 0.001), and postoperative visual analogue scale pain score (p < 0.001) were independent predictors of not achieving MCID for the MEPI, while atraumatic causes (p = 0.040) and higher preoperative ROM (p = 0.005) were independent risk factors for ROM. Conclusion. In patients undergoing OEA, the MCID for the increased MEPI is 12.2 points and 25° increased ROM. The SCB is 17.3 points and 43.3°, respectively. Future studies using the MEPI and ROM to assess OEA outcomes should report not only statistical significance but also clinical importance. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(2):366–372


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 102-B, Issue 12 | Pages 1629 - 1635
1 Dec 2020
Wang Q Sheng N Rui B Chen Y

Aims. The aim of this study was to explore why some calcar screws are malpositioned when a proximal humeral fracture is treated by internal fixation with a locking plate, and to identify risk factors for this phenomenon. Some suggestions can be made of ways to avoid this error. Methods. We retrospectively identified all proximal humeral fractures treated in our institution between October 2016 and October 2018 using the hospital information system. The patients’ medical and radiological data were collected, and we divided potential risk factors into two groups: preoperative factors and intraoperative factors. Preoperative factors included age, sex, height, weight, body mass index, proximal humeral bone mineral density, type of fracture, the condition of the medial hinge, and medial metaphyseal head extension. Intraoperative factors included the grade of surgeon, neck-shaft angle after reduction, humeral head height, restoration of medial support, and quality of reduction. Adjusted binary logistic regression and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify pre- and intraoperative risk factors. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis was used to evaluate the discriminative ability of the multivariable model. Results. Data from 203 patients (63 males and 140 females) with a mean age of 62 years (22 to 89) were analyzed. In 49 fractures, the calcar screw was considered to be malpositioned; in 154 it was in the optimal position. The rate of malpositioning was therefore 24% (49/203). No preoperative risk factor was found for malpositioning of the calcar screws. Only the neck-shaft angle was found to be related to the risk of screw malpositioning in a multivariate model (with an AUC of 0.72). For the fractures in which the neck-shaft angle was reduced to between 130° and 150°, 91% (133/46) of calcar screws were in the optimal position. Conclusion. The neck-shaft angle is the key factor for the appropriate positioning of calcar screws when treating a proximal humeral fracture with a locking plate. We recommend reducing the angle to between 130° and 150°. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(12):1629–1635


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 102-B, Issue 11 | Pages 1555 - 1559
1 Nov 2020
Sebastia-Forcada E Lizaur-Utrilla A Mahiques-Segura G Ruiz-Lozano M Lopez-Prats FA Alonso-Montero C

Aims

The purpose of this study was to determine whether there were long-term differences in outcomes of reverse shoulder arthroplasty (RSA) undertaken for acute proximal humeral fracture versus rotator cuff deficiency with a minimum follow-up of five years.

Methods

This was a prospective cohort study comparing 67 patients with acute complex proximal humeral fracture and 64 patients with irreparable rotator cuff deficiency who underwent primary RSA. In the fracture group, there were 52 (77.6%) females and 15 (22.4%) males, with a mean age of 73.5 years (51 to 85), while in the arthropathy group, there were 43 (67.1%) females and 21 (32.9%) males, with a mean age of 70.6 years (50 to 84). Patients were assessed by the Constant score, University of California Los Angeles shoulder score (UCLA), short version of the Disability of the Arm Shoulder and Hand score (QuickDASH), and visual analogue scales (VAS) for pain and satisfaction. Radiological evaluation was also performed.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 102-B, Issue 11 | Pages 1549 - 1554
1 Nov 2020
Schwartz AM Farley KX Boden SH Wilson JM Daly CA Gottschalk MB Wagner ER

Aims

The impact of tobacco use on readmission and medical and surgical complications has been documented in hip and knee arthroplasty. However, there remains little information about the effect of smoking on the outcome after total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA). We hypothesized that active smokers are at an increased risk of poor medical and surgial outcomes after TSA.

Methods

Data for patients who underwent arthroplasty of the shoulder in the USA between January 2011 and December 2015 were obtained from the National Readmission Database, and 90-day readmissions and complications were documented using validated coding methods. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to quantify the risk of smoking on the outcome after TSA, while controlling for patient demographics, comorbidities, and hospital-level confounding factors.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 1, Issue 9 | Pages 576 - 584
18 Sep 2020
Sun Z Liu W Li J Fan C

Post-traumatic elbow stiffness is a disabling condition that remains challenging for upper limb surgeons. Open elbow arthrolysis is commonly used for the treatment of stiff elbow when conservative therapy has failed. Multiple questions commonly arise from surgeons who deal with this disease. These include whether the patient has post-traumatic stiff elbow, how to evaluate the problem, when surgery is appropriate, how to perform an excellent arthrolysis, what the optimal postoperative rehabilitation is, and how to prevent or reduce the incidence of complications. Following these questions, this review provides an update and overview of post-traumatic elbow stiffness with respect to the diagnosis, preoperative evaluation, arthrolysis strategies, postoperative rehabilitation, and prevention of complications, aiming to provide a complete diagnosis and treatment path.

Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-9:576–584.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 102-B, Issue 9 | Pages 1194 - 1199
14 Sep 2020
Lee H Kim E Kim Y

Aims

The purpose of this study was to identify the changes in untreated long head of the biceps brachii tendon (LHBT) after a rotator cuff tear and to evaluate the factors related to the changes.

Methods

A cohort of 162 patients who underwent isolated supraspinatus with the preservation of LHBT was enrolled and evaluated. The cross-sectional area (CSA) of the LHBT on MRI was measured in the bicipital groove, and preoperative to postoperative difference was calculated at least 12 months postoperatively. Second, postoperative changes in the LHBT including intratendinous signal change, rupture, dislocation, or superior labral lesions were evaluated with seeking of factors that were correlated with the changes or newly developed lesions after rotator cuff repair.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 102-B, Issue 7 | Pages 881 - 889
1 Jul 2020
Frank FA Niehaus R Borbas P Eid K

Aims. Conservative treatment of moderately displaced proximal humeral head fractures yields good clinical results, but secondary fragment displacement may occur. Identification of those fractures at risk of displacement may influence initial decision-making. Methods. A total of 163 shoulders in 162 patients with conservatively treated isolated proximal humeral fractures were included. The fractures occurred between January 2015 and May 2018. The mean age of the patients was 69 years (26 to 100) and the mean follow-up was 144 days (42 to 779). The fractures were classified according to Neer. Scores for osteoporosis (Tingart, Deltoid Tuberosity Index (DTI)) and osteoarthritis (OA) of the glenohumeral joint were assessed. Translation of the head on follow-up radiographs of more than 10 mm was defined as displacement. Eccentric head index (EHI) describes the offset of the humeral head centre in relation to the diaphyseal axis. The ratio was estimated on anteroposterior (AP) and Neer views. Medial hinge was considered intact if the medial cortex proximal and distal to the fracture was in line on AP view. Results. Secondary fracture displacement occurred in 41 patients (25.2%). Clinical risk factors were alcohol abuse (odds ratio (OR) 6.8; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3 to 36; p = 0.025) and previously diagnosed osteoporosis (OR 4.6; 95% CI 0.6 to 34; p = 0.136). Age (OR 1.1; 95% CI 1.0 to 1.1; p = 0.003) and sex (OR 0.9; 95% CI 0.3 to 2.8; p = 0.867) were not independent factors. Radiological risk factors were OA grade 3 (OR 16.4; 95% CI 0.25 to 37.6; p = 0.107) and osteoporosis with the DTI (OR 10; 95% CI 0.8 to 250; p = 0.031) being more predictive than the Tingart score (OR 2.3; 95% CI 0.8 to 4.7; p = 0.041). A high EHI (AP/Neer > 0.4, OR 18.9; 95% CI 2.1 to 30.9/3.0; 95% CI 1.1 to 8.0; p = 0.002/p = 0.033) and a disrupted medial hinge (OR 3.7; 95% CI 1.1 to 12.6; p = 0.039) increased the risk of secondary displacement significantly. Neer classification had no influence. Conclusion. During conservative treatment, a quarter of patients showed secondary fracture displacement of at least 10 mm. Patients with alcohol abuse, severe OA, and osteoporosis are at risk. Newly defined EHI and disrupted medial hinge are relevant predictors for secondary displacement. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(7):881–889