Aims. The risk factors for recurrent instability (RI) following a primary traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation (PTASD) remain unclear. In this study, we aimed to determine the rate of RI in a large cohort of patients managed nonoperatively after PTASD and to develop a clinical prediction model. Methods. A total of 1,293 patients with PTASD managed nonoperatively were identified from a trauma database (mean age 23.3 years (15 to 35); 14.3% female). We assessed the prevalence of RI, and used multivariate regression modelling to evaluate which demographic- and injury-related factors were independently predictive for its occurrence. Results. The overall rate of RI at a mean follow-up of 34.4 months (SD 47.0) was 62.8% (n = 812), with 81.0% (n = 658) experiencing their first recurrence within two years of PTASD. The median time for recurrence was 9.8 months (IQR 3.9 to 19.4). Independent predictors increasing risk of RI included male sex (p < 0.001), younger age at PTASD (p < 0.001), participation in contact sport (p < 0.001), and the presence of a bony Bankart (BB) lesion (p = 0.028). Greater tuberosity fracture (GTF) was protective (p < 0.001). However, the discriminative ability of the resulting predictive model for two-year risk of RI was poor (area under the curve (AUC) 0.672). A subset analysis excluding identifiable radiological predictors of BB and GTF worsened the predictive ability (AUC 0.646). Conclusion. This study clarifies the prevalence and risk factors for RI following PTASD in a large, unselected patient cohort. Although these data permitted the development of a predictive tool for RI, its discriminative ability was poor. Predicting RI remains challenging, and as-yet-undetermined risk factors may be important in determining the risk. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(10):1111–1117

Aims

Despite recent advances in arthroscopic rotator cuff repair, re-tear rates remain high. New methods to improve healing rates following rotator cuff repair must be sought. Our primary objective was to determine if adjunctive bone marrow stimulation with channelling five to seven days prior to arthroscopic cuff repair would lead to higher Western Ontario Rotator Cuff (WORC) scores at 24 months postoperatively compared with no channelling.

Aims. The aim of this study was to explore why some calcar screws are malpositioned when a proximal humeral fracture is treated by internal fixation with a locking plate, and to identify risk factors for this phenomenon. Some suggestions can be made of ways to avoid this error. Methods. We retrospectively identified all proximal humeral fractures treated in our institution between October 2016 and October 2018 using the hospital information system. The patients’ medical and radiological data were collected, and we divided potential risk factors into two groups: preoperative factors and intraoperative factors. Preoperative factors included age, sex, height, weight, body mass index, proximal humeral bone mineral density, type of fracture, the condition of the medial hinge, and medial metaphyseal head extension. Intraoperative factors included the grade of surgeon, neck-shaft angle after reduction, humeral head height, restoration of medial support, and quality of reduction. Adjusted binary logistic regression and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify pre- and intraoperative risk factors. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis was used to evaluate the discriminative ability of the multivariable model. Results. Data from 203 patients (63 males and 140 females) with a mean age of 62 years (22 to 89) were analyzed. In 49 fractures, the calcar screw was considered to be malpositioned; in 154 it was in the optimal position. The rate of malpositioning was therefore 24% (49/203). No preoperative risk factor was found for malpositioning of the calcar screws. Only the neck-shaft angle was found to be related to the risk of screw malpositioning in a multivariate model (with an AUC of 0.72). For the fractures in which the neck-shaft angle was reduced to between 130° and 150°, 91% (133/46) of calcar screws were in the optimal position. Conclusion. The neck-shaft angle is the key factor for the appropriate positioning of calcar screws when treating a proximal humeral fracture with a locking plate. We recommend reducing the angle to between 130° and 150°. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(12):1629–1635