Aims. Current levels of hip fracture morbidity contribute greatly to the overall burden on health and social care services. Given the anticipated ageing of the population over the coming decade, there is potential for this burden to increase further, although the exact scale of impact has not been identified in contemporary literature. We therefore set out to predict the future incidence of hip fracture and help inform appropriate service provision to maintain an adequate standard of care. Methods. Historical data from the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit (2017 to 2021) were used to identify monthly incidence rates. Established time series forecasting techniques (Exponential Smoothing and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) were then used to predict the annual number of hip fractures from 2022 to 2029, including adjustment for predicted changes in national population demographics. Predicted differences in service-level outcomes (length of stay and discharge destination) were analyzed, including the associated financial cost of any changes. Results. Between 2017 and 2021, the number of annual hip fractures increased from 6,675 to 7,797 (15%), with a rise in incidence from 313 to 350 per 100,000 (11%) for the at-risk population. By 2029, a combined average projection forecast the annual number of hip fractures at 10,311, with an incidence rate of 463 per 100,000, representing a 32% increase from 2021. Based upon these projections, assuming discharge rates remain constant, the total overall length of hospital stay following hip fracture in Scotland will increase by 60,699 days per annum, incurring an additional cost of at least £25 million per year. Approximately five more acute hip fracture beds may be required per hospital to accommodate this increased activity. Conclusion. Projection modelling demonstrates that hip fracture burden and incidence will increase substantially by 2029, driven by an ageing population, with substantial implications for health and social care services. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(1):62–68

Aims. Surgery is often delayed in patients who sustain a hip fracture and are treated with a total hip arthroplasty (THA), in order to await appropriate surgical expertise. There are established links between delay and poorer outcomes in all patients with a hip fracture, but there is little information about the impact of delay in the less frail patients who undergo THA. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of delayed surgery on outcomes in these patients. Methods. A retrospective cohort study was undertaken using data from the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit between May 2016 and December 2020. Only patients undergoing THA were included, with categorization according to surgical treatment within 36 hours of admission (≤ 36 hours = ‘acute group’ vs > 36 hours = ‘delayed’ group). Those with delays due to being “medically unfit” were excluded. The primary outcome measure was 30-day survival. Costs were estimated in relation to the differences in the lengths of stay. Results. A total of 1,375 patients underwent THA, with 397 (28.9%) having surgery delayed by > 36 hours. There were no significant differences in the age, sex, residence prior to admission, and Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation for those with, and those without, delayed surgery. Both groups had statistically similar 30-day (99.7% vs 99.3%; p = 0.526) and 60-day (99.2% vs 99.0%; p = 0.876) survival. There was, however, a significantly longer length of stay for the delayed group (acute: 7.0 vs delayed: 8.9 days; p < 0.001; overall: 8.7 vs 10.2 days; p = 0.002). Delayed surgery did not significantly affect the rates of 30-day readmission (p = 0.085) or discharge destination (p = 0.884). The results were similar following adjustment for potential confounding factors. The estimated additional cost due to delayed surgery was £1,178 per patient. Conclusion. Delayed surgery does not appear to be associated with increased mortality in patients with an intracapsular hip fracture who undergo THA, compared with those who are treated with a hemiarthroplasty or internal fixation. Those with delayed surgery, however, have a longer length of stay, with financial consequences. Clinicians must balance ethical considerations, the local provision of orthopaedic services, and optimization of outcomes when determining the need to delay surgery in a patient with a hip fracture awaiting THA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(11):1201–1205

Aims. The aim of this study was to examine perioperative blood transfusion practice, and associations with clinical outcomes, in a national cohort of hip fracture patients. Methods. A retrospective cohort study was undertaken using linked data from the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit and the Scottish National Blood Transfusion Service between May 2016 and December 2020. All patients aged ≥ 50 years admitted to a Scottish hospital with a hip fracture were included. Assessment of the factors independently associated with red blood cell transfusion (RBCT) during admission was performed, alongside determination of the association between RBCT and hip fracture outcomes. Results. A total of 23,266 individual patient records from 18 hospitals were included. The overall rate of blood transfusion during admission was 28.7% (n = 6,685). There was inter-hospital variation in transfusion rate, ranging from 16.6% to 37.4%. Independent perioperative factors significantly associated with RBCT included older age (90 to 94 years, odds ratio (OR) 3.04 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.28 to 4.04); p < 0.001), intramedullary fixation (OR 7.15 (95% CI 6.50 to 7.86); p < 0.001), and sliding hip screw constructs (OR 2.34 (95% CI 2.19 to 2.50); p < 0.001). Blood transfusion during admission was significantly associated with higher rates of 30-day mortality (OR 1.35 (95% CI 1.19 to 1.53); p < 0.001) and 60-day mortality (OR 1.54 (95% CI 1.43 to 1.67); p < 0.001), as well as delays to postoperative mobilization, higher likelihood of not returning to their home, and longer length of stay. Conclusion. Blood transfusion after hip fracture was common, although practice varied nationally. RBCT is associated with adverse outcomes, which is most likely a reflection of perioperative anaemia, rather than any causal effect. Use of RBCT does not appear to reverse this effect, highlighting the importance of perioperative blood loss reduction. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(11):1266–1272

Aims

The aim of this study was to determine the impact of hospital-level service characteristics on hip fracture outcomes and quality of care processes measures.

Aims

The primary aim was to assess the independent influence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on 30-day mortality for patients with a hip fracture. The secondary aims were to determine whether: 1) there were clinical predictors of COVID-19 status; and 2) whether social lockdown influenced the incidence and epidemiology of hip fractures.

Fractures of the hip are common, often occurring in frail elderly patients, but also in younger fit healthy patients following trauma. They have a significant associated mortality and major social and financial implications to patients and health care providers. Many guidelines are available for the management of these patients, mostly recommending early surgery for the best outcomes. As a result, healthcare authorities now put pressure on surgical teams to ‘fast track’ patients with a fracture of the hip, often misquoting the available literature, which in itself can be confusing and even conflicting.

This paper has been written following an extensive review of the available literature. An attempt is made to clarify what is meant by early surgery (expeditious versus emergency), and we conclude with a personal view for the practical management of these patients of variable age, fitness and type of surgery performed within services that are often under considerable pressure of finance and available operating theatres and qualified staff.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:1573–81.

We investigated the excess mortality risk associated with fractures of the hip. Data related to 29 134 patients who underwent surgery following a fracture of the hip were obtained from the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit database. Fractures due to primary or metastatic malignancy were excluded. An independent database (General Register Office (Scotland)) was used to validate dates of death. The observed deaths per 100 000 of the population were then calculated for each group (gender, age and fracture type) at various time intervals up to eight years. A second database (Interim Life Tables for Scotland, Scottish Government) was then used to create standardised mortality ratios. Analysis showed that mortality in patients aged > 85 years with a fracture of the hip tended to return to the level of the background population between two and five years after the fracture. In those patients aged < 85 years excess mortality associated with hip fracture persisted beyond eight years. Extracapsular hip fractures and male gender also conferred increased risk

We have investigated how medical postponement, the time to surgery and the correction of medical abnormalities, according to McLaughlin criteria, before operation affected peri-operative mortality after fracture of the hip. From February to December 2007, in addition to core data, the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit collected information relating to surgical delay. Data were available for 4284 patients which allowed 30-day survival analysis to be performed. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to control for differences in case-mix. Patients with major clinical abnormalities were more likely to have a postponement and had a lower unadjusted 30-day survival. The time to operation and postponement were not associated with higher mortality after adjustment for case-mix. Correction of major clinical abnormalities before surgery improved the adjusted survival, but this improvement was not significant (p = 0.10). Postponement without correction of a medical abnormality before surgery was associated with a significantly lower (p = 0.006) 30-day adjusted survival. The possible benefits of postponement need to be weighed against prolonged discomfort for the patient and the possibility of the development of other complications

We investigated the relationship between a number of patient and management variables and mortality after surgery for fracture of the hip. Data relating to 18 817 patients were obtained from the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit database. We divided variables into two categories, depending on whether they were case-mix (age; gender; fracture type; pre-fracture residence; pre-fracture mobility and ASA scores) or management variables (time from fracture to surgery; time from admission to surgery; grade of surgical and anaesthetic staff undertaking the procedure and anaesthetic technique). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that all case-mix variables were strongly associated with post-operative mortality, even when controlling for the effects of the remaining variables. Inclusion of the management variables into the case-mix base regression model provided no significant improvement to the model. Patient case-mix variables have the most significant effect on post-operative mortality and unfortunately such variables cannot be modified by pre-operative medical interventions

We report gender differences in the epidemiology and outcome after hip fracture from the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit, with data on admission and at 120 days follow-up from 22 orthopaedic units across the country between 1998 and 2005. Outcome measures included early mortality, length of hospital stay, 120-day residence and mobility. A multivariate logistic regression model compared outcomes between genders. The study comprised 25 649 patients of whom 5674 (22%) were men and 19 975 (78%) were women. The men were in poorer pre-operative health, despite being younger at presentation (mean 77 years (60 to 101) vs 81 years (50 to 106)). Pre-fracture residence and mobility were similar between genders. Multivariate analysis indicated that the men were less likely to return to their home or mobilise independently at the 120-day follow-up. Mortality at 30 and 120 days was higher for men, even after differences in case-mix variables between genders were considered