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Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 12 | Pages 964 - 969
19 Dec 2023
Berwin JT Duffy SDX Gargan MF Barnes JR

Aims

We assessed the long-term outcomes of a large cohort of patients who have undergone a periacetabular osteotomy (PAO), and sought to validate a patient satisfaction questionnaire for use in a PAO cohort.

Methods

All patients who had undergone a PAO from July 1998 to February 2013 were surveyed, with several patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) and radiological measurements of preoperative acetabular dysplasia and postoperative correction also recorded. Patients were asked to rate their level of satisfaction with their operation in achieving pain relief, restoration of activities of daily living, ability to perform recreational activity, and their overall level of satisfaction with the procedure.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 10 | Pages 766 - 775
13 Oct 2023
Xiang L Singh M McNicoll L Moppett IK

Aims

To identify factors influencing clinicians’ decisions to undertake a nonoperative hip fracture management approach among older people, and to determine whether there is global heterogeneity regarding these factors between clinicians from high-income countries (HIC) and low- and middle-income countries (LMIC).

Methods

A SurveyMonkey questionnaire was electronically distributed to clinicians around the world through the Fragility Fracture Network (FFN)’s Perioperative Special Interest Group and clinicians’ personal networks between 24 May and 25 July 2021. Analyses were performed using Excel and STATA v16.0. Between-group differences were determined using independent-samples t-tests and chi-squared tests.


Aims. Delirium is associated with adverse outcomes following hip fracture, but the prevalence and significance of delirium for the prognosis and ongoing rehabilitation needs of patients admitted from home is less well studied. Here, we analyzed relationships between delirium in patients admitted from home with 1) mortality; 2) total length of hospital stay; 3) need for post-acute inpatient rehabilitation; and 4) hospital readmission within 180 days. Methods. This observational study used routine clinical data in a consecutive sample of hip fracture patients aged ≥ 50 years admitted to a single large trauma centre during the COVID-19 pandemic between 1 March 2020 and 30 November 2021. Delirium was prospectively assessed as part of routine care by the 4 A’s Test (4AT), with most assessments performed in the emergency department. Associations were determined using logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation quintile, COVID-19 infection within 30 days, and American Society of Anesthesiologists grade. Results. A total of 1,821 patients were admitted, with 1,383 (mean age 79.5 years; 72.1% female) directly from home. Overall, 87 patients (4.8%) were excluded due to missing 4AT scores. Delirium prevalence in the whole cohort was 26.5% (460/1,734): 14.1% (189/1,340) in the subgroup of patients admitted from home, and 68.8% (271/394) in the remaining patients (comprising care home residents and inpatients when fracture occurred). In patients admitted from home, delirium was associated with a 20-day longer total length of stay (p < 0.001). In multivariable analyses, delirium was associated with higher mortality at 180 days (odds ratio (OR) 1.69 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13 to 2.54); p = 0.013), requirement for post-acute inpatient rehabilitation (OR 2.80 (95% CI 1.97 to 3.96); p < 0.001), and readmission to hospital within 180 days (OR 1.79 (95% CI 1.02 to 3.15); p = 0.041). Conclusion. Delirium affects one in seven patients with a hip fracture admitted directly from home, and is associated with adverse outcomes in these patients. Delirium assessment and effective management should be a mandatory part of standard hip fracture care. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(6):447–456


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 3, Issue 12 | Pages 977 - 990
23 Dec 2022
Latijnhouwers D Pedersen A Kristiansen E Cannegieter S Schreurs BW van den Hout W Nelissen R Gademan M

Aims

This study aimed to investigate the estimated change in primary and revision arthroplasty rate in the Netherlands and Denmark for hips, knees, and shoulders during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 (COVID-period). Additional points of focus included the comparison of patient characteristics and hospital type (2019 vs COVID-period), and the estimated loss of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and impact on waiting lists.

Methods

All hip, knee, and shoulder arthroplasties (2014 to 2020) from the Dutch Arthroplasty Register, and hip and knee arthroplasties from the Danish Hip and Knee Arthroplasty Registries, were included. The expected number of arthroplasties per month in 2020 was estimated using Poisson regression, taking into account changes in age and sex distribution of the general Dutch/Danish population over time, calculating observed/expected (O/E) ratios. Country-specific proportions of patient characteristics and hospital type were calculated per indication category (osteoarthritis/other elective/acute). Waiting list outcomes including QALYs were estimated by modelling virtual waiting lists including 0%, 5% and 10% extra capacity.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 3, Issue 9 | Pages 701 - 709
2 Sep 2022
Thompson H Brealey S Cook E Hadi S Khan SHM Rangan A

Aims

To achieve expert clinical consensus in the delivery of hydrodilatation for the treatment of primary frozen shoulder to inform clinical practice and the design of an intervention for evaluation.

Methods

We conducted a two-stage, electronic questionnaire-based, modified Delphi survey of shoulder experts in the UK NHS. Round one required positive, negative, or neutral ratings about hydrodilatation. In round two, each participant was reminded of their round one responses and the modal (or ‘group’) response from all participants. This allowed participants to modify their responses in round two. We proposed respectively mandating or encouraging elements of hydrodilatation with 100% and 90% positive consensus, and respectively disallowing or discouraging with 90% and 80% negative consensus. Other elements would be optional.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 3, Issue 1 | Pages 42 - 53
14 Jan 2022
Asopa V Sagi A Bishi H Getachew F Afzal I Vyrides Y Sochart D Patel V Kader D

Aims

There is little published on the outcomes after restarting elective orthopaedic procedures following cessation of surgery due to the COVID-19 pandemic. During the pandemic, the reported perioperative mortality in patients who acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection while undergoing elective orthopaedic surgery was 18% to 20%. The aim of this study is to report the surgical outcomes, complications, and risk of developing COVID-19 in 2,316 consecutive patients who underwent elective orthopaedic surgery in the latter part of 2020 and comparing it to the same, pre-pandemic, period in 2019.

Methods

A retrospective service evaluation of patients who underwent elective surgical procedures between 16 June 2020 and 12 December 2020 was undertaken. The number and type of cases, demographic details, American society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade, BMI, 30-day readmission rates, mortality, and complications at one- and six-week intervals were obtained and compared with patients who underwent surgery during the same six-month period in 2019.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 12 | Pages 1096 - 1101
23 Dec 2021
Mohammed R Shah P Durst A Mathai NJ Budu A Woodfield J Marjoram T Sewell M

Aims. With resumption of elective spine surgery services in the UK following the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, we conducted a multicentre British Association of Spine Surgeons (BASS) collaborative study to examine the complications and deaths due to COVID-19 at the recovery phase of the pandemic. The aim was to analyze the safety of elective spinal surgery during the pandemic. Methods. A prospective observational study was conducted from eight spinal centres for the first month of operating following restoration of elective spine surgery in each individual unit. Primary outcome measure was the 30-day postoperative COVID-19 infection rate. Secondary outcomes analyzed were the 30-day mortality rate, surgical adverse events, medical complications, and length of inpatient stay. Results. In all, 257 patients (128 males) with a median age of 54 years (2 to 88) formed the study cohort. The mean number of procedures performed from each unit was 32 (16 to 101), with 118 procedures (46%) done as category three prioritization level. The majority of patients (87%) were low-medium “risk stratification” category and the mean length of hospital stay was 5.2 days. None of the patients were diagnosed with COVID-19 infection, nor was there any mortality related to COVID-19 during the 30-day follow-up period, with 25 patients (10%) having been tested for symptoms. Overall, 32 patients (12%) developed a total of 34 complications, with the majority (19/34) being grade 1 to 2 Clavien-Dindo classification of surgical complications. No patient required postoperative care in an intensive care setting for any unexpected complication. Conclusion. This study shows that safe and effective planned spinal surgical services can be restored avoiding viral transmission, with diligent adherence to national guidelines and COVID-19-secure pathways tailored according to the resources of the individual spinal units. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(12):1096–1101


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 11 | Pages 940 - 944
18 Nov 2021
Jabbal M Campbel N Savaridas T Raza A

Aims. Elective orthopaedic surgery was cancelled early in the COVID-19 pandemic and is currently running at significantly reduced capacity in most institutions. This has resulted in a significant backlog to treatment, with some hospitals projecting that waiting times for arthroplasty is three times the pre-COVID-19 duration. There is concern that the patient group requiring arthroplasty are often older and have more medical comorbidities—the same group of patients advised they are at higher risk of mortality from catching COVID-19. The aim of this study is to investigate the morbidity and mortality in elective patients operated on during the COVID-19 pandemic and compare this to a pre-pandemic cohort. Primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes were perioperative complications, including nosocomial COVID-19 infection. These operations were performed in a district general hospital, with COVID-19 acute admissions in the same building. Methods. Our institution reinstated elective operations using a “Blue stream” pathway, which involves isolation before and after surgery, COVID-19 testing pre-admission, and separation of ward and theatre pathways for “blue” patients. A register of all arthroplasties was taken, and their clinical course and investigations recorded. Results. During a seven-month period, 340 elective arthroplasties were performed. There was zero mortality. One patient had a positive swab for COVID-19 while an inpatient, but remained asymptomatic. There were two readmissions within a 12-week period for hip dislocation. Patients had a mean age of 68 years (28 to 90), mean BMI of 30 kg/m. 2. (19.0 to 45.6), and mean American Society of Anesthesiologists grade of 2 (1 to 3). Conclusion. Results show no increased morbidity or mortality in this cohort of patients compared to the same hospital’s morbidity and mortality pre-COVID-19. The screened pathway for elective patients is effective in ensuring that patients can be safely operated on electively in an acute hospital. This study should reassure clinicians and patients that arthroplasties can be carried out safely when the appropriate precautions are in place. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(11):940–944


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 11 | Pages 951 - 957
16 Nov 2021
Chuntamongkol R Meen R Nash S Ohly NE Clarke J Holloway N

Aims

The aim of this study was to surveil whether the standard operating procedure created for the NHS Golden Jubilee sufficiently managed COVID-19 risk to allow safe resumption of elective orthopaedic surgery.

Methods

This was a prospective study of all elective orthopaedic patients within an elective unit running a green pathway at a COVID-19 light site. Rates of preoperative and 30-day postoperative COVID-19 symptoms or infection were examined for a period of 40 weeks. The unit resumed elective orthopaedic services on 29 June 2020 at a reduced capacity for a limited number of day-case procedures with strict patient selection criteria, increasing to full service on 29 August 2020 with no patient selection criteria.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 10 | Pages 865 - 870
20 Oct 2021
Wignadasan W Mohamed A Kayani B Magan A Plastow R Haddad FS

Aims

The COVID-19 pandemic drastically affected elective orthopaedic services globally as routine orthopaedic activity was largely halted to combat this global threat. Our institution (University College London Hospital, UK) previously showed that during the first peak, a large proportion of patients were hesitant to be listed for their elective lower limb procedure. The aim of this study is to assess if there is a patient perception change towards having elective surgery now that we have passed the peak of the second wave of the pandemic.

Methods

This is a prospective study of 100 patients who were on the waiting list of a single surgeon for an elective hip or knee procedure. Baseline characteristics including age, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade, COVID-19 risk, procedure type, and admission type were recorded. The primary outcome was patient consent to continue with their scheduled surgical procedure. Subgroup analysis was also conducted to define if any specific patient factors influenced decision to continue with surgery


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 8 | Pages 661 - 670
19 Aug 2021
Ajayi B Trompeter AJ Umarji S Saha P Arnander M Lui DF

Aims. The new COVID-19 variant was reported by the authorities of the UK to the World Health Organization (WHO) on 14 December 2020. We aim to describe the clinical characteristics and nosocomial infection rates in major trauma and orthopaedic patients comparing the first and second wave of COVID-19 infection. Methods. A retrospective analysis of a prospectively collected trauma database was reviewed at a level 1 major trauma centre from 1 December 2020 to 18 February 2021 looking at demographics, clinical characteristics, and nosocomial infections and compared to our previously published first wave data (26 January 2020 to 14 April 2020). Results. From 1 December 2020 to 18 February 2021, 522 major trauma patients were identified with a mean age of 54.6 years, and 53.4% (n = 279) were male. Common admissions were falls (318; 60.9%) and road traffic accidents (RTAs; 71 (13.6%); 262 of these patients (50.2%) had surgery. In all, 75 patients (14.4%) tested positive for COVID-19, of which 51 (68%) were nosocomial. Surgery on COVID-19 patients increased to 46 (61.3%) in the second wave compared to 13 (33.3%) in the first wave (p = 0.005). ICU admissions of patients with COVID-19 infection increased from two (5.1%) to 16 (20.5%), respectively (p = 0.024). Second wave mortality was 6.1% (n = 32) compared to first wave of 4.7% (n = 31). Cardiovascular (CV) disease (35.9%; n = 14); p = 0.027) and dementia (17.9%; n = 7); p = 0.030) were less in second wave than the first. Overall, 13 patients (25.5%) were Black, Asian and Minority ethnic (BAME), and five (9.8%) had a BMI > 30 kg/m. 2. The mean time from admission to diagnosis of COVID-19 was 13.9 days (3 to 44). Overall, 12/75 (16%) of all COVID-19 patients died. Conclusion. During the second wave, COVID-19 infected three-times more patients. There were double the number of operative cases, and quadruple the cases of ICU admissions. The patients were younger with less dementia and CV disease with lower mortality. Concomitant COVID-19 and the necessity of major trauma surgery showed 13% mortality in the second wave compared with 15.4% in the first wave. In contrast to the literature, we showed a high percentage of nosocomial infection, normal BMI, and limited BAME infections. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(8):661–670


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 8 | Pages 655 - 660
2 Aug 2021
Green G Abbott S Vyrides Y Afzal I Kader D Radha S

Aims. Elective orthopaedic services have had to adapt to significant system-wide pressures since the emergence of COVID-19 in December 2019. Length of stay is often recognized as a key marker of quality of care in patients undergoing arthroplasty. Expeditious discharge is key in establishing early rehabilitation and in reducing infection risk, both procedure-related and from COVID-19. The primary aim was to determine the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic length of stay following hip and knee arthroplasty at a high-volume, elective orthopaedic centre. Methods. A retrospective cohort study was performed. Patients undergoing primary or revision hip or knee arthroplasty over a six-month period, from 1 July to 31 December 2020, were compared to the same period in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic. Demographic data, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade, wait to surgery, COVID-19 status, and length of hospital stay were recorded. Results. A total of 1,311 patients underwent hip or knee arthroplasty in the six-month period following recommencement of elective services in 2020 compared to 1,527 patients the year before. Waiting time to surgery increased in post-COVID-19 group (137 days vs 78; p < 0.001). Length of stay also significantly increased (0.49 days; p < 0.001) despite no difference in age or ASA grade. There were no cases of postoperative COVID-19 infection. Conclusion. Time to surgery and length of hospital stay were significantly higher following recommencement of elective orthopaedic services in the latter part of 2020 in comparison to a similar patient cohort from the year before. Longer waiting times may have contributed to the clinical and radiological deterioration of arthritis and general musculoskeletal conditioning, which may in turn have affected immediate postoperative rehabilitation and mobilization, as well as increasing hospital stay. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(8):655–660


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 5 | Pages 330 - 336
21 May 2021
Balakumar B Nandra RS Woffenden H Atkin B Mahmood A Cooper G Cooper J Hindle P

Aims. It is imperative to understand the risks of operating on urgent cases during the COVID-19 (SARS-Cov-2 virus) pandemic for clinical decision-making and medical resource planning. The primary aim was to determine the mortality risk and associated variables when operating on urgent cases during the COVID-19 pandemic. The secondary objective was to assess differences in the outcome of patients treated between sites treating COVID-19 and a separate surgical site. Methods. The primary outcome measure was 30-day mortality. Secondary measures included complications of surgery, COVID-19 infection, and length of stay. Multiple variables were assessed for their contribution to the 30-day mortality. In total, 433 patients were included with a mean age of 65 years; 45% were male, and 90% were Caucasian. Results. Overall mortality was 7.6% for all patients and 15.9% for femoral neck fractures. The mortality rate increased from 7.5% to 44.2% in patients with fracture neck of femur and a COVID-19 infection. The COVID-19 rate in the 30-day postoperative period was 11%. COVID-19 infection, age, and Charlson Comorbidity Index were independent risk factor for mortality. Conclusion. There was a significant risk of contracting COVID-19 due to being admitted to hospital. Using a site which was not treating COVID-19 respiratory patients for surgery did not identify a difference with respect to mortality, nosocomial COVID-19 infection, or length of stay. The COVID-19 pandemic significantly increases perioperative mortality risk in patients with fractured neck of femora but patients with other injuries were not at increased risk. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(5):330–336


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 5 | Pages 323 - 329
10 May 2021
Agrawal Y Vasudev A Sharma A Cooper G Stevenson J Parry MC Dunlop D

Aims

The COVID-19 pandemic posed significant challenges to healthcare systems across the globe in 2020. There were concerns surrounding early reports of increased mortality among patients undergoing emergency or non-urgent surgery. We report the morbidity and mortality in patients who underwent arthroplasty procedures during the UK first stage of the pandemic.

Methods

Institutional review board approval was obtained for a review of prospectively collected data on consecutive patients who underwent arthroplasty procedures between March and May 2020 at a specialist orthopaedic centre in the UK. Data included diagnoses, comorbidities, BMI, American Society of Anesthesiologists grade, length of stay, and complications. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality and secondary outcomes were prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, medical and surgical complications, and readmission within 30 days of discharge. The data collated were compared with series from the preceding three months.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 4 | Pages 261 - 270
1 Apr 2021
Hotchen AJ Khan SA Khan MA Seah M Charface ZH Khan Z Khan W Kang N Melton JTK McCaskie AW McDonnell SM

Aims

To investigate factors that contribute to patient decisions regarding attendance for arthroplasty during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

A postal questionnaire was distributed to patients on the waiting list for hip or knee arthroplasty in a single tertiary centre within the UK. Patient factors that may have influenced the decision to attend for arthroplasty, global quality of life (QoL) (EuroQol five-dimension three-level (EQ-5D-3L)), and joint-specific QoL (Oxford Hip or Knee Score) were assessed. Patients were asked at which ‘COVID-alert’ level they would be willing to attend an NHS and a “COVID-light” hospital for arthroplasty. Independent predictors were assessed using multivariate logistic regression.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 4 | Pages 236 - 242
1 Apr 2021
Fitzgerald MJ Goodman HJ Kenan S Kenan S

Aims

The aim of this study was to assess orthopaedic oncologic patient morbidity resulting from COVID-19 related institutional delays and surgical shutdowns during the first wave of the pandemic in New York, USA.

Methods

A single-centre retrospective observational study was conducted of all orthopaedic oncologic patients undergoing surgical evaluation from March to June 2020. Patients were prioritized as level 0-IV, 0 being elective and IV being emergent. Only priority levels 0 to III were included. Delay duration was measured in days and resulting morbidities were categorized into seven groups: prolonged pain/disability; unplanned preoperative radiation and/or chemotherapy; local tumour progression; increased systemic disease; missed opportunity for surgery due to progression of disease/lost to follow up; delay in diagnosis; and no morbidity.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 4 | Pages 216 - 226
1 Apr 2021
Mangwani J Malhotra K Houchen-Wolloff L Mason L

Aims. The primary objective was to determine the incidence of COVID-19 infection and 30-day mortality in patients undergoing foot and ankle surgery during the global pandemic. Secondary objectives were to determine if there was a change in infection and complication profile with changes introduced in practice. Methods. This UK-based multicentre retrospective national audit studied foot and ankle patients who underwent surgery between 13 January and 31 July 2020, examining time periods pre-UK national lockdown, during lockdown (23 March to 11 May 2020), and post-lockdown. All adult patients undergoing foot and ankle surgery in an operating theatre during the study period were included. A total of 43 centres in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland participated. Variables recorded included demographic data, surgical data, comorbidity data, COVID-19 and mortality rates, complications, and infection rates. Results. A total of 6,644 patients were included. Of the operated patients, 0.52% (n = 35) contracted COVID-19. The overall all-cause 30-day mortality rate was 0.41%, however in patients who contracted COVID-19, the mortality rate was 25.71% (n = 9); this was significantly higher for patients undergoing diabetic foot surgery (75%, n = 3 deaths). Matching for age, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade, and comorbidities, the odds ratio of mortality with COVID-19 infection was 11.71 (95% confidence interval 1.55 to 88.74; p = 0.017). There were no differences in surgical complications or infection rates prior to or after lockdown, and among patients with and without COVID-19 infection. After lockdown the COVID-19 infection rate was 0.15% and no patient died of COVID-19. Conclusion. COVID-19 infection was rare in foot and ankle patients even at the peak of lockdown. However, there was a significant mortality rate in those who contracted COVID-19. Overall surgical complications and postoperative infection rates remained unchanged during the period of this audit. Patients and treating medical personnel should be aware of the risks to enable informed decisions. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2021;2(4):216–226


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 3 | Pages 203 - 210
19 Mar 2021
Yapp LZ Clarke JV Moran M Simpson AHRW Scott CEH

Aims

The COVID-19 pandemic led to a national suspension of “non-urgent” elective hip and knee arthroplasty. The study aims to measure the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) volume in Scotland. Secondary objectives are to measure the success of restarting elective services and model the time required to bridge the gap left by the first period of suspension.

Methods

A retrospective observational study using the Scottish Arthroplasty Project dataset. All patients undergoing elective THAs and TKAs during the period 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2020 were included. A negative binomial regression model using historical case-volume and mid-year population estimates was built to project the future case-volume of THA and TKA in Scotland. The median monthly case volume was calculated for the period 2008 to 2019 (baseline) and compared to the actual monthly case volume for 2020. The time taken to eliminate the deficit was calculated based upon the projected monthly workload and with a potential workload between 100% to 120% of baseline.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 2 | Pages 134 - 140
24 Feb 2021
Logishetty K Edwards TC Subbiah Ponniah H Ahmed M Liddle AD Cobb J Clark C

Aims

Restarting planned surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic is a clinical and societal priority, but it is unknown whether it can be done safely and include high-risk or complex cases. We developed a Surgical Prioritization and Allocation Guide (SPAG). Here, we validate its effectiveness and safety in COVID-free sites.

Methods

A multidisciplinary surgical prioritization committee developed the SPAG, incorporating procedural urgency, shared decision-making, patient safety, and biopsychosocial factors; and applied it to 1,142 adult patients awaiting orthopaedic surgery. Patients were stratified into four priority groups and underwent surgery at three COVID-free sites, including one with access to a high dependency unit (HDU) or intensive care unit (ICU) and specialist resources. Safety was assessed by the number of patients requiring inpatient postoperative HDU/ICU admission, contracting COVID-19 within 14 days postoperatively, and mortality within 30 days postoperatively.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 2 | Pages 103 - 110
1 Feb 2021
Oussedik S MacIntyre S Gray J McMeekin P Clement ND Deehan DJ

Aims

The primary aim is to estimate the current and potential number of patients on NHS England orthopaedic elective waiting lists by November 2020. The secondary aims are to model recovery strategies; review the deficit of hip and knee arthroplasty from National Joint Registry (NJR) data; and assess the cost of returning to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers.

Methods

A model of referral, waiting list, and eventual surgery was created and calibrated using historical data from NHS England (April 2017 to March 2020) and was used to investigate the possible consequences of unmet demand resulting from fewer patients entering the treatment pathway and recovery strategies. NJR data were used to estimate the deficit of hip and knee arthroplasty by August 2020 and NHS tariff costs were used to calculate the financial burden.