Aims. Current levels of hip fracture morbidity contribute greatly to the overall burden on health and social care services. Given the anticipated ageing of the population over the coming decade, there is potential for this burden to increase further, although the exact scale of impact has not been identified in contemporary literature. We therefore set out to predict the future incidence of hip fracture and help inform appropriate service provision to maintain an adequate standard of care. Methods. Historical data from the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit (2017 to 2021) were used to identify monthly incidence rates. Established time series forecasting techniques (Exponential Smoothing and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) were then used to predict the annual number of hip fractures from 2022 to 2029, including adjustment for predicted changes in national population demographics. Predicted differences in service-level outcomes (length of stay and discharge destination) were analyzed, including the associated financial cost of any changes. Results. Between 2017 and 2021, the number of annual hip fractures increased from 6,675 to 7,797 (15%), with a rise in incidence from 313 to 350 per 100,000 (11%) for the at-risk population. By 2029, a combined average projection forecast the annual number of hip fractures at 10,311, with an incidence rate of 463 per 100,000, representing a 32% increase from 2021. Based upon these projections, assuming discharge rates remain constant, the total overall length of hospital stay following hip fracture in Scotland will increase by 60,699 days per annum, incurring an additional cost of at least £25 million per year. Approximately five more acute hip fracture beds may be required per hospital to accommodate this increased activity. Conclusion. Projection modelling demonstrates that hip fracture burden and incidence will increase substantially by 2029, driven by an ageing population, with substantial implications for health and social care services. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(1):62–68

Aims. Acetabular fractures are associated with long-term morbidity. Our prospective cohort study sought to understand the recovery trajectory of this injury over five years. Methods. Eligible patients at a level I trauma centre were recruited into a longitudinal registry of surgical acetabular fractures between June 2004 and August 2019. Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), including the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) physical component summary (PCS), were recorded at baseline pre-injury recall and six months, one year, two years, and five years postoperatively. Comparative analyses were performed for elementary and associated fracture patterns. The proportion of patients achieving minimal clinically important difference (MCID) was determined. The rate of, and time to, conversion to total hip arthroplasty (THA) was also established. Results. We recruited 251 patients (253 fractures), with a 4:1 male to female ratio and mean age of 46.1 years (SD 16.4). Associated fracture patterns accounted for 56.5% of fractures (n = 143). Trajectory analysis showed all timepoints had significant disability versus baseline, including final follow-up (p < 0.001). Elementary fractures had higher SF-36 PCS at six months (p = 0.023) and one year (p = 0.007) compared to associated fractures, but not at two years (p = 0.135) or five years (p = 0.631). The MCID in SF-36 PCS was observed in 37.3% of patients (69/185) between six months and one year, 26.9% of patients (39/145) between one and two years, and 23.3% of patients (20/86) between two and five years, highlighting the long recovery potential of these injuries. A significant proportion of patients failed to attain the MCID after five years (38.1%; 40/105). Conversion to THA occurred in 13.1% of patients (11/110 elementary and 22/143 associated fractures). Approximately two-thirds of THAs (21/33 patients; 63.6%) were performed within two years of index surgery. Conclusion. Acetabular fractures significantly impact physical function. Recovery trajectory is often elongated beyond one year, with two-thirds of our patients displaying persistent clinically relevant long-term disability. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(1):69–76

Our aim was to determine the effect of delay to surgery on the time to discharge, in-hospital death, the presence of major and minor medical complications and the incidence of pressure sores in patients with a fracture of the hip. All patients admitted to Vancouver General Hospital with this injury between 1998 and 2001 inclusive were identified from our trauma registry. A review of the case notes was performed to determine the delay in time from admission to surgery, age, gender, type of fracture and medical comorbidities. A time-to-event analysis was performed for length of stay. Additionally, a Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine the effect of delay to surgery on the length of stay while controlling for other pertinent confounding factors. Using logistical regression we determined the effect of delay to surgery on in-hospital death, medical complications and the presence of pressure sores, while controlling for confounding factors.

Delay to surgery (p = 0.0255), comorbidity (p < 0.0001), age (p < 0.0001) and type of fracture (p = 0.0004) were all significant in the Cox proportional hazards model for increased time to discharge. Delay to surgery was not a significant predictor of in-hospital mortality. However, a delay of more than 24 hours was a significant predictor of a minor medical complication (odds ratio (OR) 1.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05 to 2.22), while a delay of more than 48 hours was associated with an increased risk of a major medical complication (OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.01 to 4.34), a minor medical complication (OR 2.27, 95% CI 1.38 to 3.72) and of pressure sores (OR 2.29, 95% CI 1.19 to 4.40).

Patients with a fracture of the hip should have surgery early to lessen the time to acute-care hospital discharge and to minimise the risk of complications.

Several studies have reported the rate of post-operative mortality after the surgical treatment of a fracture of the hip, but few data are available regarding the delayed morbidity. In this prospective study, we identified 568 patients who underwent surgery for a fracture of the hip and who were followed for one year. Multivariate analysis was carried out to identify possible predictors of mortality and morbidity. The 30-day, four-month and one-year rates of mortality were 4.3%, 11.4%, and 18.8%, respectively. General complications and pre-operative comorbidities represented the basic predictors of mortality at any time interval (p < 0.01). In-hospital, four-month and one-year general complications occurred in 29.4%, 18.6% and 6.7% of patients, respectively. After adjusting for confounding variables, comorbidities and poor cognitive status determined the likelihood of early and delayed general complications, respectively (p < 0.001). Operative delay was the main predictor of the length of hospital stay (p < 0.001) and was directly related to in-hospital (p = 0.017) and four-month complications (p = 0.008). Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:383–90

Aims. Hip fractures are associated with high morbidity, mortality, and costs. One strategy for improving outcomes is to incentivize hospitals to provide better quality of care. We aimed to determine whether a pay-for-performance initiative affected hip fracture outcomes in England by using Scotland, which did not participate in the scheme, as a control. Materials and Methods. We undertook an interrupted time series study with data from all patients aged more than 60 years with a hip fracture in England (2000 to 2018) using the Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care (HES APC) data set linked to national death registrations. Difference-in-differences (DID) analysis incorporating equivalent data from the Scottish Morbidity Record was used to control for secular trends. The outcomes were 30-day and 365-day mortality, 30-day re-admission, time to operation, and acute length of stay. Results. There were 1 037 860 patients with a hip fracture in England and 116 594 in Scotland. Both 30-day (DID -1.7%; 95% confidence interval (CI) -2.0 to -1.2) and 365-day (-1.9%; 95% CI -2.5 to -1.3) mortality fell in England post-intervention when compared with outcomes in Scotland. There were 7600 fewer deaths between 2010 and 2016 that could be attributed to interventions driven by pay-for-performance. A pre-existing annual trend towards increased 30-day re-admissions in England was halted post-intervention. Significant reductions were observed in the time to operation and length of stay. Conclusion. This study provides evidence that a pay-for-performance programme improved the outcomes after a hip fracture in England. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1015–1023

Aims. Acetabular fractures in older adults lead to a high risk of mortality and morbidity. However, only limited data have been published documenting functional outcomes in such patients. The aims of this study were to describe outcomes in patients aged 60 years and older with operatively managed acetabular fractures, and to establish predictors of conversion to total hip arthroplasty (THA). Methods. We conducted a retrospective, registry-based study of 80 patients aged 60 years and older with acetabular fractures treated surgically at The Alfred and Royal Melbourne Hospital. We reviewed charts and radiological investigations and performed patient interviews/examinations and functional outcome scoring. Data were provided by the Victorian Orthopaedic Trauma Outcomes Registry (VOTOR). Survival analysis was used to describe conversion to THA in the group of patients who initially underwent open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF). Multivariate regression analyses were performed to identify factors associated with conversion to THA. Results. Seven patients (8.8%) had died at a median follow-up of 18 months (interquartile range (IQR) 12 to 25), of whom four were in the acute THA group. Eight patients (10%) underwent acute THA. Of the patients who underwent ORIF, 17/72 (23.6%) required conversion to THA at a median of 10.5 months (IQR 4.0 to 32.0) . After controlling for other factors, transport-related cases had an 88% lower rate of conversion to THA (hazard ratio (HR) 0.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.02 to 0.91). Mean standardized Physical Component Summary Score (PCS-12) of the 12-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-12) was comparable with the general population (age-/sex-matched) by 12 to 24 months. Over half of patients working prior to injury (14/26) returned to work by six months and two-thirds of patients (19/27) by 12 months. Conclusion. Patients over 60 years of age managed operatively for displaced acetabular fractures had a relatively high mortality rate and a high conversion rate to THA in the ORIF group but, overall, patients who survived had mean PCS-12 scores that improved over two years and were comparable with controls. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(12):1735–1742

Aims. Complex displaced osteoporotic acetabular fractures in the elderly are associated with high levels of morbidity and mortality. Surgical options include either open reduction and internal fixation alone, or combined with total hip arthroplasty (THA). There remains a cohort of severely comorbid patients who are deemed unfit for extensive surgical reconstruction and are treated conservatively. We describe the results of a coned hemipelvis reconstruction and THA inserted via a posterior approach to the hip as the primary treatment for this severely high-risk cohort. Methods. We have prospectively monitored a series of 22 cases (21 patients) with a mean follow-up of 32 months (13 to 59). Results. The mean patient age was 79 years (67 to 87), and the mean ASA score was 3.3 (3 to 5). Three patients had high-energy injuries and 18 had low-energy injuries. All cases were associated fractures (Letournel classification: anterior column posterior hemitransverse, n = 13; associated both column, n = 6; transverse posterior wall, n = 3) with medialization of the femoral head. Mean operative time was 93 minutes (61 to 135). There have been no revisions to date. Of the 21 patients, 20 were full weight-bearing on day 1 postoperatively. Mean length of hospital stay was 12 days (5 to 27). Preoperative mobility status was maintained in 13 patients. At one year, mean Merle d’Aubigné score was 13.1 (10 to 18), mean Oxford Hip Score was 38.5 (24 to 44), mean EuroQol five-dimension five-level (EQ-5D-5L) health score was 68 (30 to 92), and mean EQ-5D-5L index score was 0.68 (0.335 to 0.837); data from 14 patients. Mortality was 9.5% (2/21) at one year. There have been no thromboembolic events, deep infections, or revisions. Conclusion. The coned hemipelvis reconstruction bypasses the fracture, creating an immediately stable construct that allows immediate full weight-bearing. The posterior approach minimizes the operative time and physiological insult in this vulnerable patient population. Early results suggest this to be a safe addition to current surgical options, targeted at the most medically frail elderly patient with a complex displaced acetabular fracture. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(2):155–161

Aims. The primary aim of this study was to develop a reliable, effective radiological score to assess the healing of humeral shaft fractures, the Radiographic Union Score for HUmeral fractures (RUSHU). The secondary aim was to assess whether the six-week RUSHU was predictive of nonunion at six months after the injury. Patients and Methods. Initially, 20 patients with radiographs six weeks following a humeral shaft fracture were selected at random from a trauma database and scored by three observers, based on the Radiographic Union Scale for Tibial fractures system. After refinement of the RUSHU criteria, a second group of 60 patients with radiographs six weeks after injury, 40 with fractures that united and 20 with fractures that developed nonunion, were scored by two blinded observers. Results. After refinement, the interobserver intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was 0.79 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67 to 0.87), indicating substantial agreement. At six weeks after injury, patients whose fractures united had a significantly higher median score than those who developed nonunion (10 vs 7; p < 0.001). A receiver operating characteristic curve determined that a RUSHU cut-off of < 8 was predictive of nonunion (area under the curve = 0.84, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.94). The sensitivity was 75% and specificity 80% with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 65% and a negative predictive value of 86%. Patients with a RUSHU < 8 (n = 23) were more likely to develop nonunion than those with a RUSHU ≥ 8 (n = 37, odds ratio 12.0, 95% CI 3.4 to 42.9). Based on a PPV of 65%, if all patients with a RUSHU < 8 underwent fixation, the number of procedures needed to avoid one nonunion would be 1.5. Conclusion. The RUSHU is reliable and effective in identifying patients at risk of nonunion of a humeral shaft fracture at six weeks after injury. This tool requires external validation but could potentially reduce the morbidity associated with delayed treatment of an established nonunion. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1300–1306

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The aims of this study were to assess quality of life after hip fractures, to characterize respondents to patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), and to describe the recovery trajectory of hip fracture patients.

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The aim of this study was to examine perioperative blood transfusion practice, and associations with clinical outcomes, in a national cohort of hip fracture patients.

Aims. The primary aim of this study was to establish the cost-effectiveness of the early fixation of displaced midshaft clavicle fractures. Patients and Methods. A cost analysis was conducted within a randomized controlled trial comparing conservative management (n = 92) versus early plate fixation (n = 86) of displaced midshaft clavicular fractures. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was used to express the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). The Six-Dimension Short-Form Health Survey (SF-6D) score was used as the preference-based health index to calculate the cost per QALY at 12 months after the injury. Results. The mean 12-month SF-6D was 0.9522 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.9355 to 0.9689) following conservative management and 0.9607 (95% CI 0.9447 to 0.9767) following fixation, giving an advantage for fixation of 0.0085, which was not statistically significant (p = 0.46). The mean cost per patient was £1322.69 for conservative management and £5405.32 for early fixation. This gave an ICER of £480 309.41 per QALY. For a threshold of £20 000 per QALY, the benefit of fixation would need to be present for 24 years to be cost-effective compared with conservative treatment. Linear regression analysis identified nonunion as the only factor to adversely influence the SF-6D at 12 months (p < 0.001). Conclusion. Routine plate fixation of displaced midshaft clavicular fractures is not cost-effective. Nonunion following conservative management has an increased morbidity with comparable expense to early fixation. This may suggest that a targeted approach of fixation in patients who are at higher risk of nonunion would be more cost-effective than the routine fixation of all displaced fractures. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:995–1001

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The purpose of this study was to determine the weightbearing practice of operatively managed fragility fractures in the setting of publically funded health services in the UK and Ireland.

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Prior to the availability of vaccines, mortality for hip fracture patients with concomitant COVID-19 infection was three times higher than pre-pandemic rates. The primary aim of this study was to determine the 30-day mortality rate of hip fracture patients in the post-vaccine era.

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The aim of this study was to investigate the association between additional rehabilitation at the weekend, and in-hospital mortality and complications in patients with hip fracture who underwent surgery.

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The aim of this study was to perform the first population-based description of the epidemiological and health economic burden of fracture-related infection (FRI).

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The use of multimodal non-opioid analgesia in hip fractures, specifically acetaminophen combined with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), has been increasing. However, the effectiveness and safety of this approach remain unclear. This study aimed to compare postoperative outcomes among patients with hip fractures who preoperatively received either acetaminophen combined with NSAIDs, NSAIDs alone, or acetaminophen alone.

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To assess the feasibility of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) that compares three treatments for acetabular fractures in older patients: surgical fixation, surgical fixation and hip arthroplasty (fix-and-replace), and non-surgical treatment.

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Factors associated with high mortality rates in geriatric hip fracture patients are frequently unmodifiable. Time to surgery, however, might be a modifiable factor of interest to optimize clinical outcomes after hip fracture surgery. This study aims to determine the influence of postponement of surgery due to non-medical reasons on clinical outcomes in acute hip fracture surgery.

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The aim of this study was to describe the management and associated outcomes of patients sustaining a femoral hip periprosthetic fracture (PPF) in the UK population.

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This study estimated trends in incidence of open fractures and the adherence to clinical standards for open fracture care in England.