Aims. The primary aim of this study was to develop a reliable, effective radiological score to assess the healing of humeral shaft fractures, the Radiographic Union Score for HUmeral fractures (RUSHU). The secondary aim was to assess whether the six-week RUSHU was predictive of nonunion at six months after the injury. Patients and Methods. Initially, 20 patients with radiographs six weeks following a humeral shaft fracture were selected at random from a trauma database and scored by three observers, based on the Radiographic Union Scale for Tibial fractures system. After refinement of the RUSHU criteria, a second group of 60 patients with radiographs six weeks after injury, 40 with fractures that united and 20 with fractures that developed nonunion, were scored by two blinded observers. Results. After refinement, the interobserver intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was 0.79 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67 to 0.87), indicating substantial agreement. At six weeks after injury, patients whose fractures united had a significantly higher median score than those who developed nonunion (10 vs 7; p < 0.001). A receiver operating characteristic curve determined that a RUSHU cut-off of < 8 was predictive of nonunion (area under the curve = 0.84, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.94). The sensitivity was 75% and specificity 80% with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 65% and a negative predictive value of 86%. Patients with a RUSHU < 8 (n = 23) were more likely to develop nonunion than those with a RUSHU ≥ 8 (n = 37, odds ratio 12.0, 95% CI 3.4 to 42.9). Based on a PPV of 65%, if all patients with a RUSHU < 8 underwent fixation, the number of procedures needed to avoid one nonunion would be 1.5. Conclusion. The RUSHU is reliable and effective in identifying patients at risk of nonunion of a humeral shaft fracture at six weeks after injury. This tool requires external validation but could potentially reduce the morbidity associated with delayed treatment of an established nonunion. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1300–1306

Aims. To evaluate the effect of a single early high-dose vitamin D supplement on fracture union in patients with hypovitaminosis D and a long bone fracture. Patients and Methods. Between July 2011 and August 2013, 113 adults with a long bone fracture were enrolled in a prospective randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial. Their serum vitamin D levels were measured and a total of 100 patients were found to be vitamin D deficient (< 20 ng/ml) or insufficient (< 30 ng/mL). These were then randomised to receive a single dose of vitamin D. 3. orally (100 000 IU) within two weeks of injury (treatment group, n = 50) or a placebo (control group, n = 50). We recorded patient demographics, fracture location and treatment, vitamin D level, time to fracture union and complications, including vitamin D toxicity. Outcomes included union, nonunion or complication requiring an early, unplanned secondary procedure. Patients without an outcome at 15 months and no scheduled follow-up were considered lost to follow-up. The t-test and cross tabulations verified the adequacy of randomisation. An intention-to-treat analysis was carried out. Results. In all, 100 (89%) patients had hypovitaminosis D. Both treatment and control groups had similar demographics and injury characteristics. The initial median vitamin D levels were 16 ng/mL (interquartile range 5 to 28) in both groups (p = 0.885). A total of 14 patients were lost to follow-up (seven from each group), two had fixation failure (one in each group) and one control group patient developed an infection. Overall, the nonunion rate was 4% (two per group). No patient showed signs of clinical toxicity from their supplement. Conclusions. Despite finding a high level of hypovitaminosis D, the rate of union was high and independent of supplementation with vitamin D. 3. . Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:1520–5

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Tobacco, in addition to being one of the greatest public health threats facing our world, is believed to have deleterious effects on bone metabolism and especially on bone healing. It has been described in the literature that patients who smoke are approximately twice as likely to develop a nonunion following a non-specific bone fracture. For clavicle fractures, this risk is unclear, as is the impact that such a complication might have on the initial management of these fractures.

Aims. Fractures of the distal femur can be challenging to manage and are on the increase in the elderly osteoporotic population. Management with casting or bracing can unacceptably limit a patient’s ability to bear weight, but historically, operative fixation has been associated with a high rate of re-operation. In this study, we describe the outcomes of fixation using modern implants within a strategy of early return to function. Patients and Methods. All patients treated at our centre with lateral distal femoral locking plates (LDFLP) between 2009 and 2014 were identified. Fracture classification and operative information including weight-bearing status, rates of union, re-operation, failure of implants and mortality rate, were recorded. Results. A total of 127 fractures were identified in 122 patients. The mean age was 72.8 years (16 to 101) and 92 of the patients (75%) were female. A consultant performed the operation in 85 of the cases, (67%) with the remainder performed under direct consultant supervision. In total 107 patients (84%) were allowed to bear full weight immediately. The rate of clinical and radiological union was 81/85 (95%) and only four fractures of 127 (3%) fractures required re-operation for failure of surgery. The 30-day, three- and 12-month mortality rates were 6 (5%), 17 (15%) and 25 (22%), respectively. Conclusion. Our study suggests an exponential increase in the incidence of a fracture of the distal femur with age, analogous to the population suffering from a proximal femoral fracture. Allowing immediate unrestricted weight-bearing after LDFLP fixation in these elderly patients was not associated with failure of fixation. There was a high rate of union and low rate of re-operation. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:951–7

Aims. There is a lack of published evidence relating to the rate of nonunion seen in occult scaphoid fractures, diagnosed only after MRI. This study reports the rate of delayed union and nonunion in a cohort of patients with MRI-detected acute scaphoid fractures. Methods. This multicentre cohort study at eight centres in the UK included all patients with an acute scaphoid fracture diagnosed on MRI having presented acutely following wrist trauma with normal radiographs. Data were gathered retrospectively for a minimum of 12 months at each centre. The primary outcome measures were the rate of acute surgery, delayed union, and nonunion. Results. A total of 1,989 patients underwent acute MRI for a suspected scaphoid fracture during the study period, of which 256 patients (12.9%) were diagnosed with a previously occult scaphoid fracture. Of the patients with scaphoid fractures, six underwent early surgical fixation (2.3%) and there was a total of 16 cases of delayed or nonunion (6.3%) in the remaining 250 patients treated with cast immobilization. Of the nine nonunions (3.5%), seven underwent surgery (2.7%), one opted for non-surgical treatment, and one failed to attend follow-up. Of the seven delayed unions (2.7%), one (0.4%) was treated with surgery at two months, one (0.4%) did not attend further follow-up, and the remaining five fractures (1.9%) healed after further cast immobilization. All fractures treated with surgery had united at follow-up. There was one complication of surgery (prominent screw requiring removal). Conclusion. MRI-detected scaphoid fractures are not universally benign, with delayed or nonunion of scaphoid fractures diagnosed only after MRI seen in over 6% despite appropriate initial immobilization, with most of these patients with nonunion requiring surgery to achieve union. This study adds weight to the evidence base supporting the use of early MRI for these patients. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(4):387–393

Aims. The aim of the present study was to assess the outcomes of the induced membrane technique (IMT) for the management of infected segmental bone defects, and to analyze predictive factors associated with unfavourable outcomes. Methods. Between May 2012 and December 2020, 203 patients with infected segmental bone defects treated with the IMT were enrolled. The digital medical records of these patients were retrospectively analyzed. Factors associated with unfavourable outcomes were identified through logistic regression analysis. Results. Among the 203 enrolled patients, infection recurred in 27 patients (13.3%) after bone grafting. The union rate was 75.9% (154 patients) after second-stage surgery without additional procedures, and final union was achieved in 173 patients (85.2%) after second-stage surgery with or without additional procedures. The mean healing time was 9.3 months (3 to 37). Multivariate logistic regression analysis of 203 patients showed that the number (≥ two) of debridements (first stage) was an independent risk factor for infection recurrence and nonunion. Larger defect sizes were associated with higher odds of nonunion. After excluding 27 patients with infection recurrence, multivariate analysis of the remaining 176 patients suggested that intramedullary nail plus plate internal fixation, smoking, and an allograft-to-autograft ratio exceeding 1:3 adversely affected healing time. Conclusion. The IMT is an effective method to achieve infection eradication and union in the management of infected segmental bone defects. Our study identified several risk factors associated with unfavourable outcomes. Some of these factors are modifiable, and the risk of adverse outcomes can be reduced by adopting targeted interventions or strategies. Surgeons can fully inform patients with non-modifiable risk factors preoperatively, and may even use other methods for bone defect reconstruction. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(6):613–622

Aims. The incidence of atypical femoral fractures (AFFs) continues to increase. However, there are currently few long-term studies on the complications of AFFs and factors affecting them. Therefore, we attempted to investigate the outcomes, complications, and risk factors for complication through mid-term follow-up of more than three years. Methods. From January 2003 to January 2016, 305 patients who underwent surgery for AFFs at six hospitals were enrolled. After exclusion, a total of 147 patients were included with a mean age of 71.6 years (48 to 89) and 146 of whom were female. We retrospectively evaluated medical records, and reviewed radiographs to investigate the fracture site, femur bowing angle, presence of delayed union or nonunion, contralateral AFFs, and peri-implant fracture. A statistical analysis was performed to identify the significance of associated factors. Results. The mean follow-up period was 70.2 months (36 to 191). There were 146 AFFs (99.3%) in female patients and the mean age was 71.6 years (48 to 89). The AFFs were located in the subtrochanter and shaft in 52 cases (35.4%) and 95 (64.6%), respectively. The preoperative mean anterior/lateral femoral bowing angles were 10.5° (SD 5.7°)/6.1° (SD 6.2°). The postoperative mean anterior/lateral bowing values were changed by 8.7° (SD 5.4°)/4.6° (SD 5.9°). Bisphosphonates had been used contemporarily in 115 AFFs (78.2%) for a mean of 52.4 months (1 to 204; SD 45.5) preoperatively. Nailing was performed in 133 AFFs (90.5%), and union was obtained at a mean of 23.6 weeks (7 to 85). Delayed union occurred in 41 (27.9%), and nonunion occurred in 13 (8.8%). Contralateral AFF occurred in 79 patients (53.7%), and the use of a bisphosphonate significantly influenced the occurrence of contralateral AFFs (p = 0.019). Peri-implant fractures occurred in a total of 13 patients (8.8%), and a significant increase was observed in cases with plating (p = 0.021) and high grade of postoperative anterolateral bowing (p = 0.044). Conclusion. The use of a bisphosphonate was found to be a risk factor for contralateral AFF, and high-grade postoperative anterolateral bowing and plate fixation significantly increased the occurrence of peri-implant fractures. Long-term follow-up studies on the bilaterality of AFFs and peri-implant fractures are warranted. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(11):1648–1655

Aims. There has been an increasing use of early operative fixation for scaphoid fractures, despite uncertain evidence. We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate up-to-date evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs), comparing the effectiveness of the operative and nonoperative treatment of undisplaced and minimally displaced (≤ 2 mm displacement) scaphoid fractures. Methods. A systematic review of seven databases was performed from the dates of their inception until the end of March 2021 to identify eligible RCTs. Reference lists of the included studies were screened. No language restrictions were applied. The primary outcome was the patient-reported outcome measure of wrist function at 12 months after injury. A meta-analysis was performed for function, pain, range of motion, grip strength, and union. Complications were reported narratively. Results. Seven RCTs were included. There was no significant difference in function between the groups at 12 months (Hedges’ g 0.15 (95% confidence interval -0.02 to 0.32); p = 0.082). The complication rate was higher in the operative group and involved more serious complications. Conclusion. We found no difference in functional outcome at 12 months for fractures of the waist of the scaphoid with ≤ 2 mm displacement treated operatively or nonoperatively. The complication rate was higher with operative treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):953–962

Aims. The purpose of this study was to: review the efficacy of the induced membrane technique (IMT), also known as the Masquelet technique; and investigate the relationship between patient factors and technique variations on the outcomes of the IMT. Methods. A systematic search was performed in CINAHL, The Cochrane Library, Embase, Ovid MEDLINE, and PubMed. We included articles from 1 January 1980 to 30 September 2019. Studies with a minimum sample size of five cases, where the IMT was performed primarily in adult patients (≥ 18 years old), in a long bone were included. Multivariate regression models were performed on patient-level data to determine variables associated with nonunion, postoperative infection, and the need for additional procedures. Results. A total of 48 studies were included, with 1,386 cases treated with the IMT. Patients had a mean age of 40.7 years (4 to 88), and the mean defect size was 5.9 cm (0.5 to 26). In total, 82.3% of cases achieved union after the index second stage procedure. The mean time to union was 6.6 months (1.4 to 58.7) after the second stage. Our multivariate analysis of 450 individual patients showed that the odds of developing a nonunion were significantly increased in those with preoperative infection. Patients with tibial defects, and those with larger defects, were at significantly higher odds of developing a postoperative infection. Our analysis also demonstrated a trend towards the inclusion of antibiotics in the cement spacer having a protective effect against the need for additional procedures. Conclusion. The IMT is an effective management strategy for complex segmental bone defects. Standardized reporting of individual patient data or larger prospective trials is required to determine the optimal implementation of this technique. This is the most comprehensive review of the IMT, and the first to compile individual patient data and use regression models to determine predictors of outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(12):1723–1734

Aims. The aim of this study was to evaluate the outcomes of a salvage procedure using a 95° angled blade plate for failed osteosynthesis of atypical subtrochanteric femoral fractures associated with the long-term use of bisphosphonates. These were compared with those for failed osteosynthesis of subtrochanteric fractures not associated with bisphosphonate treatment. Patients and Methods. Between October 2008 and July 2016, 14 patients with failed osteosynthesis of an atypical subtrochanteric femoral fracture were treated with a blade plate (atypical group). Their mean age was 67.8 years (60 to 74); all were female. During the same period, 21 patients with failed osteosynthesis of a typical subtrochanteric fracture underwent restabilization using a blade plate (typical group). Outcome variables included the time of union, postoperative complications, Harris Hip Score, and Sanders functional rating scale. Results. In the atypical group, union was achieved in 12 patients (85.7%) at a mean of 8.4 months (4 to 12). The mean follow-up was 31.2 months (12 to 92) The plate broke in one patient requiring further stabilization with a longer plate and strut-allograft. Another patient with failure of fixation and varus angulation at the fracture site declined further surgery. In the typical group, union was achieved in 18 patients (85.7%) at a mean of 7.9 months (4 to 12). There was no difference in the mean Harris Hip Score between the two groups (83.1 points vs 86.8 points; p = 0.522) at the time of final follow-up. Sanders functional rating scores were good or excellent in 78.6% of the atypical group and in 81.0% of the typical group. Conclusion. The 95° angled blade plate was shown to be an effective fixation modality for nonunion of atypical subtrochanteric fractures with a high rate of union and functional improvement, comparable to those after fractures not associated with bisphosphonate treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:1511–17

Aims. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for the failure of exchange nailing in nonunion of tibial diaphyseal fractures. . Patients and Methods. A cohort of 102 tibial diaphyseal nonunions in 101 patients with a mean age of 36.9 years (15 to 74) were treated between January 1992 and December 2012 by exchange nailing. Of which 33 (32%) were initially open injuries. The median time from primary fixation to exchange nailing was 6.5 months (interquartile range (IQR) 4.3 to 9.8 months). . The main outcome measures were union, number of secondary fixation procedures required to achieve union and time to union. . Univariate analysis and multiple regression were used to identify risk factors for failure to achieve union. . Results. Multiple causes for the primary nonunion were found for 28 (27%) tibiae, with infection present in 32 (31%). Six patients were lost to follow-up. Further surgical procedures were required in 35 (36%) nonunions. Other fixation modalities were required in five fractures. A single nail exchange procedure achieved union in 60/96 (63%) of all nonunions. Only 11 out of 31 infected nonunions (35.4%) healed after one exchange nail procedure. Up to five repeated exchange nailings, with or without bone grafting, ultimately achieved union in 89 (93%) fractures. The median time to union after exchange nailing was 8.7 months (IQR 5.7 to 14.0 months). Univariate analysis confirmed that an oligotrophic/atrophic pattern of nonunion (p = 0.002), a bone gap of 5 mm or more (p = 0.04) and infection (p < 0.001), were predictive for failure of exchange nailing Multiple regression analysis found that infection was the strongest predictor of failure (p < 0.001). . Conclusion. Exchange nailing is an effective treatment for aseptic tibial diaphyseal nonunion. However, in the presence of severe infection with a highly resistant organism, or extensive sclerosis of the bone, other fixation modalities, such as Ilizarov treatment, should be considered. Take home message: Exchange nailing is an effective treatment for aseptic tibial diaphyseal nonunion. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:534–41

We report the outcome of 84 nonunions involving long bones which were treated with rhBMP-7, in 84 patients (60 men: 24 women) with a mean age 46 years (18 to 81) between 2003 and 2011. The patients had undergone a mean of three previous operations (one to 11) for nonunion which had been present for a mean of 17 months (4 months to 20 years). The nonunions involved the lower limb in 71 patients and the remainder involved the upper limb. A total of 30 nonunions were septic. Treatment was considered successful when the nonunion healed without additional procedures. The relationship between successful union and the time to union was investigated and various factors including age and gender, the nature of the nonunion (location, size, type, chronicity, previous procedures, infection, the condition of the soft tissues) and type of index procedure (revision of fixation, type of graft, amount of rhBMP-7) were analysed. The improvement of the patients’ quality of life was estimated using the Short Form (SF) 12 score. A total of 68 nonunions (80.9%) healed with no need for further procedures at a mean of 5.4 months (3 to 10) post-operatively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis of the factors affecting union suggested that only infection significantly affected the rate of union (p = 0.004).Time to union was only affected by the number of previous failed procedures (p = 0.006). An improvement of 79% and 32.2% in SF-12 physical and mental score, respectively, was noted within the first post-operative year. Rh-BMP-7 combined with bone grafts, enabled healing of the nonunion and improved quality of life in about 80% of patients. Aseptic nonunions were much more likely to unite than septic ones. The number of previous failed operations significantly delayed the time to union. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:997–1003

Aims. Recent studies of nonoperatively treated displaced midshaft clavicular fractures have shown a high incidence of nonunion and unsatisfactory functional outcome. Some studies have shown superior functional results and higher rates of healing following operative treatment. The aim of this study was to compare the outcome in these patients after nonoperative management with those treated with fixation. Patients and Methods. In a multicentre, parallel randomized controlled trial, 146 adult patients with an acute displaced fracture of the midthird of the clavicle were randomized to either nonoperative treatment with a sling (71, 55 men and 16 women with a mean age of 39 years, 18 to 60) or fixation with a pre-contoured plate and locking screws (75, 64 men and 11 women with a mean age of 40 years, 18 to 60). Outcome was assessed using the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) Score, the Constant Score, and radiographical evidence of union. Patients were followed for one year. Results. A total of 60 patients in the nonoperative group and 64 in the operative group completed one-year follow-up. At three months’ follow-up, both the median DASH (1.7 vs 8.3) and median Constant scores (97 vs 90) were significantly better in the operated group (both p = 0.02). After six months and one year, there was no difference in the median DASH or Constant scores. The rate of nonunion was lower in the operative group (2 vs 11 patients, p < 0.02). Nine patients in the nonoperative group underwent surgery for nonunion. The plate was subsequently removed in 16 patients (25%). One patient had a new fracture after removal of the plate and one underwent revision surgery for failure of fixation. Conclusion. Fixation of a displaced midshaft clavicular fracture using a pre-contoured plate and locking screws results in faster functional recovery and a higher rate of union compared with nonoperative management, but the function of the shoulder is equal after six months and at one year. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:1385–91

Aims. Open fractures of the tibia are a heterogeneous group of injuries that can present a number of challenges to the treating surgeon. Consequently, few surgeons can reliably advise patients and relatives about the expected outcomes. The aim of this study was to determine whether these outcomes are predictable by using the Ganga Hospital Score (GHS). This has been shown to be a useful method of scoring open injuries to inform wound management and decide between limb salvage and amputation. Methods. We collected data on 182 consecutive patients with a type II, IIIA, or IIIB open fracture of the tibia who presented to our hospital between July and December 2016. For the purposes of the study, the patients were jointly treated by experienced consultant orthopaedic and plastic surgeons who determined the type of treatment. Separately, the study team (SP, HS, AD, JD) independently calculated the GHS and prospectively collected data on six outcomes for each patient. These included time to bony union, number of admissions, length of hospital stay, total length of treatment, final functional score, and number of operations. Spearman’s correlation was used to compare GHS with each outcome. Forward stepwise linear regression was used to generate predictive models based on components of the GHS. Five-fold cross-validation was used to prevent models from over-fitting. Results. The mean follow-up was 11.4 months (3 to 31). The mean time to union was 9.7 months (3 to 21), the mean number of operations was 2.8 (1 to 11), the mean time in hospital was 17.7 days (5 to 84), the mean length of treatment was 92.7 days (5 to 730), the mean number of admissions was 1.7 (1 to 6), and the mean functional score (Lower Extremity Functional Score (LEFS)) was 60.13 (33 to 80). There was a significant correlation between the GHS and each of the outcome measures. A predictive model was generated from which the GHS could be used to predict the various outcome measures. Conclusion. The GHS can be used to predict the outcome of patients who present with an open fracture of the tibia. Our model generates a numerical value for each outcome measure that can be used in clinical practice to inform the treating team and to advise patients. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(1):26–32

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The aim of this study was to assess the safety and clinical outcome of patients with a femoral shaft fracture and a previous complex post-traumatic femoral malunion who were treated with a clamshell osteotomy and fixation with an intramedullary nail (IMN).

Aims. In order to determine whether and for whom serial radiological evaluation is necessary in one-part proximal humerus fractures, we set out to describe the clinical history and predictors of secondary displacement in patients sustaining these injuries. Patients and Methods. Between January 2014 and April 2016, all patients with an isolated, nonoperatively treated one-part proximal humerus fracture were prospectively followed up. Clinical and radiological evaluation took place at less than two, six, 12, and 52 weeks. Fracture configuration, bone quality, and comminution were determined on the initial radiographs. Fracture healing, secondary displacement, and treatment changes were recorded during follow-up. Results. In 100 patients (59 female, 41 male; mean age 57 years), 91 of the fractures (91%) remained stable. In five of nine patients (55%) with secondary displacement, surgery was recommended. Comminution, present in 23 patients (23%), was identified as a predictor of secondary displacement (p < 0.001). Patients’ age, sex, fracture configuration, and bone quality were not associated with secondary displacement (p ≥ 0.438). Nonoperative treatment resulted in a mean absolute Constant score (CS) of 80 (49 to 98), relative CS of 101% (63% to 138%), median subjective shoulder value of 95% (interquartile range (IQR) 90% to 100%), and median EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire score of 0.89 (IQR 0.80 to 1.00) with bone union in all cases at one-year follow-up. Conclusion. Radiological re-evaluation was only necessary in patients presenting with comminution and may be redundant for 77% of patients with one-part proximal humerus fractures. Nonoperative treatment of one-part proximal humerus fractures remains the mainstay of treatment with a low rate of secondary surgery, a high union rate, and good clinical results. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1307–1312

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The use of multimodal non-opioid analgesia in hip fractures, specifically acetaminophen combined with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), has been increasing. However, the effectiveness and safety of this approach remain unclear. This study aimed to compare postoperative outcomes among patients with hip fractures who preoperatively received either acetaminophen combined with NSAIDs, NSAIDs alone, or acetaminophen alone.

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To assess the feasibility of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) that compares three treatments for acetabular fractures in older patients: surgical fixation, surgical fixation and hip arthroplasty (fix-and-replace), and non-surgical treatment.

Tibial nonunion represents a spectrum of conditions which are challenging to treat, and optimal management remains unclear despite its high rate of incidence. We present 44 consecutive patients with 46 stiff tibial nonunions, treated with hexapod external fixators and distraction to achieve union and gradual deformity correction. There were 31 men and 13 women with a mean age of 35 years (18 to 68) and a mean follow-up of 12 months (6 to 40). No tibial osteotomies or bone graft procedures were performed. Bony union was achieved after the initial surgery in 41 (89.1%) tibias. Four persistent nonunions united after repeat treatment with closed hexapod distraction, resulting in bony union in 45 (97.8%) patients. The mean time to union was 23 weeks (11 to 49). Leg-length was restored to within 1 cm of the contralateral side in all tibias. Mechanical alignment was restored to within 5° of normal in 42 (91.3%) tibias. Closed distraction of stiff tibial nonunions can predictably lead to union without further surgery or bone graft. In addition to generating the required distraction to achieve union, hexapod circular external fixators can accurately correct concurrent deformities and limb-length discrepancies. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:1417–22

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Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a common complication after elbow trauma and can cause severe upper limb disability. Although multiple prognostic factors have been reported to be associated with the development of post-traumatic HO, no model has yet been able to combine these predictors more succinctly to convey prognostic information and medical measures to patients. Therefore, this study aimed to identify prognostic factors leading to the formation of HO after surgery for elbow trauma, and to establish and validate a nomogram to predict the probability of HO formation in such particular injuries.