Aims. To develop and externally validate a parsimonious statistical prediction model of 90-day mortality after elective total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to provide a web calculator for clinical usage. Methods. We included 53,099 patients with cemented THA due to osteoarthritis from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Registry for model derivation and internal validation, as well as 125,428 patients from England and Wales recorded in the National Joint Register for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man, and the States of Guernsey (NJR) for external model validation. A model was developed using a bootstrap ranking procedure with a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression model combined with piecewise linear regression. Discriminative ability was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration belt plots were used to assess model calibration. Results. A main effects model combining age, sex, American Society for Anesthesiologists (ASA) class, the presence of cancer, diseases of the central nervous system, kidney disease, and diagnosed obesity had good discrimination, both internally (AUC = 0.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75 to 0.81) and externally (AUC = 0.75, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.76). This model was superior to traditional models based on the Charlson (AUC = 0.66, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.70) and Elixhauser (AUC = 0.64, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.68) comorbidity indices. The model was well calibrated for predicted probabilities up to 5%. Conclusion. We developed a parsimonious model that may facilitate individualized risk assessment prior to one of the most common surgical interventions. We have published a web calculator to aid clinical decision-making. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(3):469–478

Aims

The influence of identifiable pre-operative factors on the outcome of eccentric rotational acetabular osteotomy (ERAO) is unknown. We aimed to determine the factors that might influence the outcome, in order to develop a scoring system for predicting the prognosis for patients undergoing this procedure.

Peri-articular soft-tissue masses or ‘pseudotumours’ can occur after large-diameter metal-on-metal (MoM) resurfacing of the hip and conventional total hip replacement (THR). Our aim was to assess the incidence of pseudotumour formation and to identify risk factors for their formation in a prospective cohort study.

A total of 119 patients who underwent 120 MoM THRs with large-diameter femoral heads between January 2005 and November 2007 were included in the study. Outcome scores, serum metal ion levels, radiographs and CT scans were obtained. Patients with symptoms or an identified pseudotumour were offered MRI and an ultrasound-guided biopsy.

There were 108 patients (109 hips) eligible for evaluation by CT scan at a mean follow-up of 3.6 years (2.5 to 4.5); 42 patients (39%) were diagnosed with a pseudotumour. The hips of 13 patients (12%) were revised to a polyethylene acetabular component with small-diameter metal head. Patients with elevated serum metal ion levels had a four times increased risk of developing a pseudotumour.

This study shows a substantially higher incidence of pseudotumour formation and subsequent revisions in patients with MoM THRs than previously reported. Because most revision cases were identified only after an intensive screening protocol, we recommend close monitoring of patients with MoM THR.